Sunday, November 29, 2015

Posted Sunday Night:
Mumbai: Sunday 29th: Daytime was again warm and hot at 34.7c at Scruz and 33.7c at Colaba ( we were expecting a rise). 
Monday 30th will be warm in the day, but evening will be breezy with N/NE winds. A nip in the air with temperatures falling to 18/19c at Scruz and 21/22c at Colaba on Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Cooler nights with a drop in temperatures expected in Pune and Nasik on Monday and Tuesday Nights.

Chennai: Cloudy with some showers on Monday 30th. Rain intensity increasing from Monday evening. Frequent showers expected later on Monday and more on Tuesday 1st.. Chances of heavy spells of rains. 

Heavy rains expected in Pudducherry on Tuesday.

Bangalore will see light rains on Monday with a cool day at 23/24c (Maximum). Similar weather on Tuesday. As of now, seems rains can increase on Wednesday.

Moderate showers possible on Monday and Tuesday in Interior TN, Interior and Coastal Karnataka, Goa  and Kerala. A few heavy falls in coastal Karnataka.
Light to moderate showers expected in M.P. and Chattisgarh on 30th and 1st December. 

Karachi is seeing some pleasant weather recently. With lows around 14/15c. Islamabad is hovering around 7c, while Gujrat (PakPunjab) is around 8c in recent nights. 
Due to absence of any system and cooler winds, conditions can continue for another couple of nights. December 1st and 2nd could be colder.

Light rains expected in Muscat Oman on 30th November.

Saturday, November 28, 2015


Outside of the western ghats , the lowest max temps in the state have been recorded at North Konkan (Mumbai Colaba @ 30 c )
At 2.30 pm today : Mumbai Colaba @ 29 c (hum :45 %) , Mumbai SCZ @ 31.8 c ( hum : 35 %)
Vagarians , please explain/comment on the below mentioned Vagaries of the Weather -map is attached below for reference

It's the time of the year ,when normally the temperature difference between most parts of the Konkan region and those of the Deccan plateau region of the state should be around 5 c on an average.

??But the temperatures have mostly been uniform throughout the state during the past 24 hrs..??

Sample this (28 Nov 2015) --> 
Average temp : Konkan region around 26-27 c and the Deccan plateau region around 25-28 c ..

Konkan region - Mumbai SCZ : 32.8 c / 19.2 c (average 26 c )

Deccan Plateau Region -
Madhya Maharashtra - Pune : 31 / 18.7  (average 24.9 c )
                                     Solapur : 35.5 / 20.2  (average 27.9 c )

Marathwada - Aurangabad : 32.4 / 18.2  (average 25.3 c )

Vidarbha - Nagpur : 32.1 / 17.3  (average 24.7 c )

Sample this for comparison with same day last year (28 Nov 2014) -->
Average temp : Konkan region around 26-27 c and the Deccan plateau region around 21-22 c ..

Konkan region - Mumbai SCZ : 34.8  / 18.7 (average 26.8 c )

Deccan Plateau Region - 
Madhya Maharashtra -Pune : 30.5 / 11.8 (average 21.2 c)
                                    Solapur : 30.7 / 14.5 (average 22.6 c)

Marathwada - Aurangabad : 31.5 / 14.2 (average 21.9 c)

Vidarbha - Nagpur : 31.6  / 13.1 (average 22.4 c)



Friday, November 27, 2015

Mumbai Forecast for 2 days on Mumbai Page..and Mumbai Weather Last 30 days Variations

Sub Continent..Some Rains in Central India and Southern Most Peninsula.

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

This Day Last Year...
See the 25th of November 2014  Vagaries  Post...

Cold Wave Grips Plains of Northern India..

The difference is called "Vagaries of the Weather  !

Cloud Wakes Behind the Prince Edward Islands

Cloud Wakes Behind the Prince Edward Islands
acquired November 5, 2015 
Cloud Wakes Behind the Prince Edward Islands
acquired November 5, 2015

Located about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from South Africa, the Prince Edward Islands jut out of the southern Indian Ocean at a remote point between Africa and Antarctica. The larger of the two islands—Marion Island—reaches an elevation of 1,230 meters (4,040 feet) at its highest peak. A volcanic mountain on Prince Edward Island reaches 672 meters (2,205 feet). Both islands have volcanic origins.
As shown by this natural-color satellite image, the peaks are high enough to disrupt the air masses and clouds flowing around them. On November 5, 2015, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of mountain-wave clouds flowing in a northeasterly direction on the lee side of the islands. See the lower image for a more detailed view.
Wave clouds can form when stable air flows over a raised land form. In this case, the island generated wave motions in the air passing over it, much like the bow of a ship creates ripples as it cuts through water. The crests of these lee waves raised and cooled the air enough to form clouds, while the troughs remain too low and warm for cloud formation. Seen from above, the result is a distinctive banded pattern.

 Cloud Wakes behind Amsterdam Island

More than 3,000 kilometers (2,000 miles) from any continent, Amsterdam Island pokes out from the southern Indian Ocean at a point between Africa, Australia, and Antarctica.

From NASA Earth Observatory.
NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response. Caption and image annotations by Adam Voiland.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Posted Monday Night:

Mumbai on Tuesday: will see Thundery Developments in Eastern Skies. Rain in parts of city by evening.
Wednesday there can be a slight increase in activity, with thunder showers in city.

Cloudy weather and some rains expected again around 1st December...more of that Later.

Pune: Some  showers on Tuesday in parts of city. Increase in showers on Wednesday.

Weather becomes dry after Thursday in Maharashtra.

The Low AS-3, from the Bay has now tracked West, and is positioned 8N around Maldives/Lakshdweep Islands.Possible track will be North. 
There is a possibility of clouds extending towards the coast.

Western Maharashtra on:
Tuesday 24th: Light to Medium ( 10-15 mms) rainfall expected in Kerala, Konkan and Goa. Heavier falls expected in Coastal Karnataka.
Medium rains (10-30 mms) in Madhya Maharshtra expected. (Pune, Satara, Ahmadnagar and Nasik). 
An isolated patch of heavier rain expected in Nasik, Satara and adjoining districts.
Light rain in Southern M.P.

Wednesday 25th: Medium showers in Konkan and Districts of Pune, Ahmadnagar and Kolhapur ( 10-30 mms). Medium rains in Coastal Karnataka and Goa. 

Another Low Pressure Area is likely to form in the Bay, South Andaman Sea, around the 26th of November. This may deepen and track towards the TN or AP coast.

From Abhijit: 
Pune getting heavy rains in parts of city for second consecutive day on Monday..
Rainfall till 8.30pm Monday:
Katraj 63mm
Yerwada 50mm
Wadgaon Sheri AWS 46mm
Saswad 41mm
St. Joseph AWS 33mm
Alandi 19mm
Pune 14mm
Pune AP 8mm till (5.30pm)

Dhom Dam near Wai recorded 61 mms rain on Monday till 9.30 pm IST.

See Sunday Rains in Western Maharashtra posted by Rohit (Below Post)


Very heavy rains at Pune .. Alandi 113 mms , Pune 95 mms
In the ghats : Dasawe 95 mms
In Konkan region : Panvel 41 mms


Sunday, November 22, 2015

Madhya Maharastra and North Konkan Novembar Rains on Sunday 22nd ...
November Rains Lash Pune....95 mms till 8.30 am Monday..Rains started from Sunday afternoon..

Some pics from Pune routed by Vagarian Salil thru Twitter.

Other Amounts: Ulhasnagar and Shahpur 31 mms, Badlapur 33 mms, Bhiwandi 12 mms.

More reports coming in...

Posted Sunday Night:

Low, yesterday mentioned in South Bay, is over the Kanyakumari region on Sunday.
Massive 12 hr rainfall in Coastal TN on Sunday:

Rainfall in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST Sunday:
Karaikal: 189 mms, Cuddalore 140 mms, 
Nagapattinum 104 mms (crossing 1000 mms this Season. At 1088 mms, about 510 mms above normal)), 
Chennai (Minabakkam) 31 mms.
Bangalore had some rains too... 4 mms.

Several parts of Madhya Maharastra received thunder showers on Sunday...As expected, Nasik region had heavy thunder showers.

Bhimashankar saw 30 mms, Alandi 50 mms, Katraj 32 mms, Dimbhe Dam 25 mms and Temghar 24 mms. Pavana Dam measured 10 mms.( Figures from Abhijit).
Also Ahmadnagar (Madhya Mah), saw heavy rains amounting to 56 mms by 8.30 pm Sunday. Mahableshwar saw 19 mms.and Rajgurunagar 29mms. Pune saw 2 mms. )All till Sunday Night).

Eastern townships around Mumbai faced a stormy thunder shower on Sunday evening, with Badlapur (Vagarian Abhijit's reading ) seeing 28 mms.
Panvel and surrounding towns had showers, with New Panvel seeing 25 mms ( Vagarian Junaid's Guage).
Vagarian Gaurav mentions of rain in Lonavala. 

On Sunday, Northern suburbs of Mumbai also witnessed some rain with thunder. Eastern Skies was lit up with lightening on Sunday evening as seen from Central Mumbai and South Mumbai.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Posted Saturday Night:

Mumbai: Light rains in Mumbai City and Suburbs on Saturday 21st evening. Colaba measured 1.5 mms, Vagaries 0.3 mms and SCruz 0.4 ms from 8.30 am-8.30 pm Saturday. 
Salil's private gauge measured 3 mms at Dadar.

Mumbai on Sunday: Cloudy weather with a few spells of rain. Rain expected early morning and more towards evening. Lightening possible in eastern skies. Stuffy Night.
Eastern townships, Panvel and vicinity around can get few showers, more towards evening. Around 10 mms.
Pune: Cloudy skies. Showers possible on Sunday. Night temperatures rise to around 21c.

Outer townships, specially the Eastern side too had showers. Vagarian's private rain Gauges measured 20 mms at Badlapur (Abhijit), 29 mms at Panvel (Junaid), Thane 2 mms.
Ratnagiri (South Konkan) saw 10 mms.

The Well Marked Low moved North and was located off the Karnataka Coast . A trough runs from the system towards Gujarat. 
Sunday: Moderate rains along Konkan. Places along the interiors will get showers, around 10-15 mms.

Thunder showers with hails possible in many places of Madhya Maharashtra and parts of Marathwada on Sunday. Heavy showers expected in Nasik District.

Rainfall can extend North towards the Gujarat coast. Valsad and Surat can get some rain.

AN UAC off the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka could descend to become a Low.

Friday, November 20, 2015

                                                                                              Mumbai Readers >>   >>    >> 

Posted Friday 20th Morning:

1. It was mentioned in previous blogs that the pulse from BB-11 would track West into the Arabaian Sea. An explanation was given earlier about the pulse forming into a Low with the help of a trough.
A Low has formed in the Arabian Sea in the Lakshdweep region, a bit to the North of the area. Low will track West.

2. Due to the Low, Easterlies will push away the sea breeze along the Konkan coast.

Friday 20th/Saturday 21st and Sunday 22nd:

Mumbai: Weekend will be cloudy on Saturday/Sunday. As we see, night temperatures have dropped a bit to 18c on Friday morning in the suburbs. However, due to east winds we may not see any major fluctuations (eitherway) in temperatures.

Pune which is enjoying pleasant nights at 12.9c, might see a marginal rise in temperatures, as some scattered clouds will appear.

-Dense fog possible in East U.P. and adjoining Bihar.

-No major system or heavy rainfall expected.

-Heavy falls likely in patches in Coastal Tamil Nadu. A passing Western Disturbance will bring precipitation in Kashmir.

-Low will bring isolated heavy falls in Kerala and light rains in Coastal Karnataka. Some spill over showers expected in few parts of Goa.

-Partly cloudy with light isolated rain in some patches of North Konkan. Places in North Interior Konkan will be partly cloudy with light rains in some regions.

Goa may see some showers this weekend...amounting to around 5 mms.

No major changes in North India plains.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

As mentioned, the nights have started cooling down in Northern plains and parts of interior Mah.. Some Low temperatures (Wednesday morning) of North India from Vagarian Vineet:
Today Meerut recorded the lowest temperature of the 
season, temperature falling to 10.5 degree celsius.

Agra:- 10.4 degree celsiu, churu :- 7.8 degree celsius
delhi :- 11 degree celsius, ludhiana :- 8.4 degree celsius.

New Delhi S'Jung recorded 11c, while Hindon was 9.2c.

Nanded saw a low of 11c,, Nasik was 12.6c, Pune was at a 
low of 12.9c and A'Nagar was 13c.

We are hearing and seeing a lot in the media about the flooding of Chennai...well. our Pradeep gives us the rain amounts around Chennai...
2015 NEM - one of the greatest flood event for Chennai - Chennai are historic. Its one of the highest in recent times.
1943, 1976, 1985, 1996, 2005 are great flood events in Chennai history. We can add 2015 into the above category.
Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 16.11.2015.
Ponneri - 369, Hindustan University - 335
Tambaram - 332, Mahabalipuram - 332, Chengalpet - 318, Tamaraipakkam - 307, Puzhal - 299
Chembarabakkam Lake - 282, Redhills Lake - 282, Ellapuram (Thamaripakkam) - 279
Thiruporur (near Kelambakkam) - 278, Cholavaram Lake - 277, Palavedu (Avadi) - 272
Puzhal Agro - 271, Kacheepuram - 272, Vembakkam (near Kancheepuram) - 270
Kelambakkam - 269, Meenambakkam (Chennai AP) - 266, Avadi - 263
Taramani - 262, Poonamalle Agro - 259, Nungambakkam (Chennai City) - 247, Minjur - 241
Madhavaram - 238, Kancheepuram Agro - 235, Poonamalle - 233, DGP Marina - 231
Anna University - 230, Sriperumbedur - 229, Korattur Anaicut (Poonamalle) - 223
Sriperumbudur Agro - 218, Kolapakkam (near AP) - 211, Uthukottai - 210
Arakonam - 200, Katupakkam (beyond Tambaram) - 198, Ennore - 196
Nemili (Arakonnam) - 196, Thiruvalangadu - 192, Poondi Lake - 190
Tiruvalluvar - 190, Tiruttani - 179, Tiruttani Agro - 164, RK Pet - 122

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Posted Tuesday Night:
Mumbai: As mentioned, a slight drop in temperatures was seen in Mumbai on Tuesday. Scruz saw a high of 34.5c, a fall from the 37c a few days ago. The minimum was also better at 19.8c. A degree below normal ! Scruz will see a low of around 19c next 2 nights.
Pune was low at 13.8c and Nasik was 13.4c Tuesday morning.

The minimum will remain low next 2 nights.

Outlook for Wednesday 18th and Thursday 19th:

Slightly cooler nights for NW India plains next 2 nights. Minimum temperatures lkely to fall by 2/3c from current levels. The fall will be felt in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan. Partial fall of 1/2c will be also felt in Gujarat and Maharashtra next 2 nights. In Pakistan Punjab, Upper Sindh, nights will get cooler by 2/3c from current levels next 2 nights. 

 Decreasing rainfall in Southern Peninsula. Thunder showers popping up in Kerala. 

Goa and North Karnataka coast will witness strong (east) winds on Wednesday and Thursday. But, will not mean well, as it would keep the sea breeze at bay.

Weekend weather outlook will be put up on Thursday.

Monday, November 16, 2015

Posted Monday Night:
Mumbai will see a fall in night temperatures from Tuesday morning. Windy conditions on Wednesday.

BB-11 as tracked Northwards as forecasted, but at a faster speed than expected, having covered the distance to Chennai within 24 hrs, as its centre now lies just 100 kms ESE off Chennai.

Cloud wrapping is seen from the North quadrant thru to the SW Quadrant...almost covering the Land areas.
With surface winds at 25 knts, it is a depression now.

Chennai received 41 mms of rain on Monday till 8.30 pm IST. Rainfall decreasing in Chennai from Tuesday.

System will cross coast on Tuesday. Heavy rains likely on Tuesday in all AP and Southern Telengana.
Occasional Showers likely in Hyderabad on Tuesday.

Rainfall (medium) spreading to NIK and Southern Mah on Wednesday 18th.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Posted Sunday Night:

Wettest November ever for Bangalore Air Port:
Cool day in Bangalore on Sunday. The day's high was 20.9c, with 5.8 mms of rain in the day. It was 20.4c at the AP with 5.2 mms rainfall.
It seems the Bangalore Air Port has recorded the wettest November ever (already on 15th) this year. The previous wettest was in 1966, when 252 mms were recorded. This year, the AP has seen 292 mms .
Bangalore city has so far measured 228 mms, and nearing the all time November record rains of 242 mms (1916).

BB-11....has remained a Well Marked Low. It has tracked due West in the last 12 hrs, and crossed the Sri Lanka coast Sunday Afternoon. It is Located around NW Sri Lanka (Inland) on Sunday evening. This has resulted in a gush of NNE winds towards the system along the TN coast. Moisture bearing winds have resulted in convective activity and clouds banding is seen in the Northern (Tamil Nadu) segment. Again, divergence in the Jet Streams have resulted in heavy rains along Northern Sri Lanka and Coastal TN, and brought heavy showers in Chennai. 

(Divergence in upper air pulls the air from middle and lower atmospheres and creates or deepens the Low pressure below)
Chennai  has seen rains on Sunday, and from 8.30 am -8.30 pm IST, Meenambakkam has measured 167 mms...far exceeding Vagaries' estimate. Season's total jumps to 869 mms. November total 784 mms.
Monday will see frequent showers. Around 80-100 mms from Monday morning - Tuesday morning.

BB-11 expected to track NNW, and enter the Palk straight, and cross TN coast (around the Pondicherry region) on Monday.

Posted Saturday Night:

With little rains on Friday and no rains (as at time of publishing) on Saturday, Chennai now sees a temporary lull ( which we expected) in the rains. 
BB-11, now a Well Marked Low, deepens and moves NW from its current location off the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka. BB-11, a depression by then, crosses the TN coast on 16th. A pulse moves west, and again, with the help of a trough, the system re emerges in the South Arabian Sea by 18th.

Increase in rains intensity in Chennai from Sunday evening. Monday will be a rainy day. By Monday morning, we can assume around 50 mms to have fallen, and another 50 mms during Monday.
Heavy rains and squall expected all along the Tamil Nadu coast from Sunday evening.
Rains expected in S.I.Karnataka on Monday.

Bangalore too saw a gradual rise in day temperatures as expected, with the day around 24c on Friday (a pleasant 16c at night) and 25c on Saturday. 
Days back to a high of 22c on Monday 16th, with the day (Monday) being rainy and windy. Around 20 mms expected on Monday.

Meanwhile, Guess where a depleted (earstwhile)BB-10 is headed ?  Now in the Western Arabian Sea as a Low, it is headed for...Socotra Islands. 

We had expected some change in temperatures in Maharashtra from the 15th...some drop is seen in the interior regions like Madhya Mah (Pune 14c on Friday and 15c on 
Saturday, Nasik 13.6c Saturday, and Nanded 14c on Saturday). 
Mahableshwar is also comparituvely above normal at 28c (3c above normal) in the day and 16c at night. But, 

Konkan continues to remain hot and above normal.

Mumbai Scruz was 37c on Friday, and 35.8c on Saturday.
Except for a slight drop in night temperatures, maybe 1c to 2c, not much change is expected next few days.

The Northern Plains of India are facing an acute shortage of winter rains. The agriculture sector need rains soon, to add soil moisture and prevent the early winter crops from 
With no Western Disturbance coming soon, we see dry weather next week, and no major changes in the night temperatures till BB-11 moves away in the Arabian Sea.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Chennai Special:
On Thursday Late night  and and early Friday 13th  morning, the regions around Chennai received unexpected very heavy rains. Amounts of upto 47 cms was recorded, and many a usually drier lakes received a bounty, and filled up the water reserves.

The reason for this, according to me, was due to the "divergence" in the 200 jet streams, almost over the affected areas.
Where divergence (evacuation of mass) occurs in the upper levels, rising motion result. Convergence and divergence in a jet streak is caused by an imbalance of forces as a parcel accelerates into a jet streak then decelerates out of the jet streak. 
This could have created a Lower level small Vortex.
The early morning jet stream divergence chart is shown below.
One must remember, that in order to follow any change, or upcoming change in weather, or even a seasonal change, the jet streams must be  checked upon. These (Jet Streams) I call the "kings" and are responsible for most of the weather happenings in the lower atmospheres.

Rainfall in mms as on 13th Morning: (Compiled by Pradeep)
Vembakkam (Near Kancheepuram) - 473, Kancheepuram - 342, Puzhal Agro - 227
Puzhal - 211, Redhills Lake - 210, Sriperumbudur Agro - 184, Nemili (Arakonnam) - 178
Madhavaram - 164, Tiruvallur - 163' Avadi - 162, Nungambakkam - 150, Cholavaram Lake - 147, Palavedu (Avadi) - 145, Minjur - 144, DGP Marina - 140
Anna University - 131, Tamaraipakkam - 130, Poonamalle Agro - 127, Thiruvalangadu - 120, Meenambakkam - 118 , Korattur Anaicut (Poonamalle) - 118
Chengalpattu - 100, Tharamani - 98, Katupakkam - 97, Ennore - 95.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Posted Thursday 12th Night:

1. As mentioned in vagaries earlier, BB-10 has re-emerged in the Arabian Sea.
A Low pressure is now over the Lakshdweep region as on Thursday.

click on Image

System will move WNW..affecting Kerala and Karnataka Coastline on Friday. It moves away from Indian coast.

2. Another Low (BB-11) will form off the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka by the 14th. This will also track towards the Tamil Nadu Coast.More rains from Sunday 15th thru Tuesday for TN.

Chennai: Chennai sees a decrease in rainfall as BB-10 moves away. But, this is temporary, as BB-11 approaches , and we see rains increasing from Sunday 15th again.

3. Western Disturbance will be active in Northern Hills region of the sub continent on Friday. System moves away by the weekend. 

Mumbai: A hot New Year Day for the day at SCruz rises to 36.5c and 34.2c at Colaba. Similar weather next few days.
As explained, we may see a noticeable drop in temperatures in Mumbai and Konkan after 15th.

Chapala Drenches the Desert.....
Chapala has aroused the interest of many Vagarians. For them, I have reproduced this analytical reference.

For the first time since records were started in the 1940s, a tropical cyclone made landfall in Yemen. When Cyclone Chapala struck the desert nation on November 3, 2015, it was just the third time in six decades that any cyclone made landfall on the Arabian Peninsula. Given the arid, vegetation-sparse, and rocky landscape, the rainfall from Chapala posed a dire threat.
The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured false-color images of flooded regions of eastern Yemen following the landfall of Cyclone Chapala. 

The top image was acquired on October 19, 2015; the second was acquired on November 4. Turn on the image comparison tool to see the differences.

Both images use a combination of visible light and infrared (Landsat bands 3, 5, and 7, or green, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared) that makes it easier to see flood water on the landscape. In the November 4 image, shades of blue and green reveal areas with standing or flowing water; reds often indicate vegetation. Much of the region is marked by ephemeral river beds, or wadis, such as Wadi al Masilah. A line of green dots—likely pooled water—trails south and west from the Wadi toward the coast, perhaps through smaller stream beds. Near the coast, several kilometers of land are inundated with water, perhaps from the rainfall or from a storm surge.

The map shows a satellite-based estimate of rainfall in Yemen from 3 p.m. local time (12:00 Universal Time) on November 3 to 3 p.m. (12:00 UTC) on November 4, 2015. The measurements are regional estimates, so totals reported by ground stations can be significantly higher or lower. The brightest colors on the map represent rainfall approaching 180 millimeters (7 inches) over the course of the day. 
On average, most of Yemen sees no more than 100 millimeters of rain in a year; coastal areas receive less than 50 millimeters.
The rainfall data come from the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM, or IMERG, a product of the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. IMERG pulls together precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared sensors on several satellites, as well as monthly surface precipitation gauge data, to provide precipitation estimates between 60 degrees North and South latitude. 

NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and IMERG data provided courtesy of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Science Team's Precipitation Processing System (PPS). Caption by Mike Carlowicz.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Posted 10th Night (Tuesday):

Chennai: On Tuesday, Rains intensity decreased as expected. In the 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST, Chennai received 24 mms of rain.
Chennai: Still decreasing rains on Tuesday. Meaningfull increase after the arrival of the fresh Low (around 15th).

Bangalore too, was almost as forecasted. As per our estimate, the day's high was 20.4c,with 11 mms of rain in 12 hrs.
Bangalore: Decrease in rains from Tuesday..Day temperature rising. 

BB-10 is now over North TN and adjoining Interior Karnataka. Heavy rains likely in N.I. Karnataka on Wednesday. 
Goa and Coastal Karnataka ( Particularly Karwar coast) may see showers with gusty winds from evening. Light rains in South Konkan.

BB-10 will emerge in the Arabian Sea on Thursday, off Mangalore.

Another Low is forming in the Southern Bay off the Sri Lanka (Eastern) coast around the 13th of November. In all probility, track towards TN coast.

Mumbai was 33.7c  (Colaba) and 35.5c (SCruz) on Tuesday. I expect the nights to cool down by about 2c from Wednesday, and day temperature will remain around 33/34c. Expect more cooling after the 15th, when we may see nights at SCruz falling by 2/3c.

Western Disturbance will precipitate snow on Wednesday and Thursday in the medium and higher reaches of Kashmir and HP and the Northern Most regions of Pakistan.

Posted Monday 9th Night:
Mumbai will be cloudy on Tuesday, with the day temperatures around 33/34c.
Pune also will be cloudy and easterly winds will keep day around 30/31c.

Depression BB-10 has crossed the East India coast near Pondicherry on Monday evening. On crossing, the pressure as per various estimates was 1002/1004 mb and wind speed estimate 25-27 knts...hence as per IMD terminology, it remains as a Depression.
Depression will track West, and emerge in the Arabian Sea as a Low.

Chennai had good overnight rains amounting to 136 mms at Nungambakkam and 167 mms at Meenambakkam as on Monday morning. during the day, Monday, Meenambakkam measured 44 mms. 
Rains intensity decreasing on Tuesday.

Bangalore was cold and windy as anticipated (see Viayanand's comments) at 21.5c, and received 20 mms till 8.30 pm. 
Tuesday will remain cold and rainy, with the day around 20-22c and around 20 mms of rain.

Western Disturbance N-4 will bring rains to Northern Pakistan regions and Kashmir on Tuesday.
But, it picks up in strength from Wednesday night into Thursday, when, Central Pakistan, that is Upper Sindh, Punjab and Northern regions, And Indian Punjab and Hill States of H.P. and Kashmir get rains and snow.

Sunday, November 08, 2015

Posted Sunday Night: 

As mentioned on Saturday, the Low in the Southern Bay (BB-10) has deepened to depression strength as on Sunday evening, and is tracking towards the Tamil Nadu coast. 

Chennai had a rainy and cool Saturday, with 61 mms from 8.30 am - 8.30 pm. The day was cool at 26.1c. (Minabakkam readings).
As scheduled, Monday will also see rains, maybe around 110-120 mms as estimated. The system will cross the TN coast on Monday night.
Bangalore can get occasional rains on Monday, with around 55-65 mms expected. A cold Monday is estimated with the day around 22/23c.

Mumbai, partly cloudy, will be warm in the day with the temperatures between 33c at Colaba and 34/35c in the suburbs. Evenings will be breezy.

Two Satellite Images of 2 cyclones, 8 days apart in the same location. The observation is the size and strength of both these storms. 
 Chapala...1st November 2015

Megh ....8th November 2015..Looks like a "midget" as termed by JTWC. 
The rain image below shows a very small region of rain..Smaller than a Local Circulation.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Posted Saturday Night:

The South Bay Low, BB-10, ( 9.1N & 85E) seems to be gaining as expected....currently and about 1006 mb now, and Well Marked, will now deepen and move towards the TN coast.

Chennai will get have a wet Sunday with occasional showers and rains increasing by Sunday night. Monday will be very wet and cool, with around 110-120 mms expected.

See the rain rate compared with BB-10 and AS-3...(Recent)

 "Megh" has strengthened, and now estimated core pressure is an average 990 mb. (See Graph below)
The various agencies differ on the estimate, as the Satellite imagery shows mixed and broken convective banding.. Graph shows the pressure regularly declining gradually last few days.

The core winds estimation is also varying a lot, and differs between 45 knts and 75 knts, averaging 60 knts (110 kmph). (See Graph Below).

Is "Megh" finally a cyclone ?...No...its not...yes it is ....Ok, So, JTWC says... let's call it a "Midget Size Cyclone"....

And this is from usual at his best...See Rohit's Page for Latest.

See Mumbai Page for last 30 days Temperature graphs

Friday, November 06, 2015

Posted Friday 6th Night...Outlook for next 3 days (Weekend):

Mumbai...Warm days at around 34/35c, with hazy skies. evenings can be breezy and providing some comfort. The minimum temperatures in the mornings will be around 22c and 25c (between Scruz and Colaba).

An UAC has formed in the Easterly trough, East off Sri Lanka. This is likely to strengthen and become a surface Low by Friday, and track towards the TN coast this weekend.
Rainfall will gradually increase from Sunday in TN. The coastal regions and Southern peninsula will see heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. 

Chennai will see an increase in precipitation from Saturday as the system nears the coastline. Very good thunder showers thru Sunday. Would expect around 100- 110 mms from Saturday morning to Monday morning. Could be heavy in some areas of city.

The Well marked Low, or Depression, may cross the TN coast on sunday. Can possibily emerge in the Arabian Sea of Kerala.Could be supported by a current UAC around Lakshadweep Islands.

Expecting heavy showers in Kerala. Idukki region can receive heavy showers this weekend, amounting to around 70-75 mms from Saturday morning to Monday morning.

Kashmir got fairly good rains and snow from N-2, with Gulmarg seeing a day's high of -1.5c and snow.
Well, N-3 could be milder, with precipitation restricted to the most Northern regions of  the sub continent. Northern Pakistan and Kashmir can get rain and snow this weekend, though not substantial. 
Next week N-4 could be stronger and effective.

So, for Delhi NCR, as some clouds rolled in last few days (Mild drizzles), they rolled out also. And the weekend will unfortunately not bring any more rains , or better temperatures.

There is not much mention of AS-3 in Vagaries....That is because it is moving away from the Sub Continent. But Vagaries was not much in favour of this system strengthening beyond the depression stage. 
(The Following are my Personal Views and not binding):Now, if you see this absolutely latest Satellite Image, from no angle does it look like a threatening cyclone. The bands are not defined, the centre is not properly formed/obscured, and the regions of convection are poorly defined. 

The Sat image shows the rain region as quite small , and see the dry air covering...
Anyway, one thing is sure, the dry air has started penetrating into the Western periphery of the system and now is circling from the SW and Southern sides. The western segment is already encountering dry air. The Upper ridge is pushing the system slightly southwards, and the SE section is seeing reduction of moist air incursion. 

The estimated core pressure estimates vary from model and systems of measuring. While the Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates 998 mb, CIRA AMSU: 995 hPa, CIMSS AMSU: 999 hPa, IMD states it as 994 mb and Intensity at T2.5. Winds are estimated between 85-90 kmph, which is good.
In an ordinary angle, today, it looks at the most like a Deep Depression to me.
Situation can change...

More tonight on The upcoming system in North and South...

Wednesday 6.30 pm IST