Monday, June 06, 2011


New “Flash Snippets” will publish latest and important developments.

Check upper right corner of Vagaries.


Hot conditions return to Pakistan, NW India and Gujarat on Monday, 6th June:

Highest in Asia and Pakistan: 49c at Sibbi, Jacobabad, Larkana and Sukkar.
Highest in India: Bikaner at 47.9c and Jaisalmer at 47.5c.

Gujarat heated up to above normal temperatures on Monday. Bhuj was 45.6c, Deesa 45.4c and Idar at 44.4c.

AS-1 update as on 9.30 pm IST : AS1 lies at 18.7N and 71.5E and is upgraded to a "low" status by IMD. Its core pressure is at 1002 mb and wind speeds at 25 knts. A minute improvement from our last update.

IMD feels a good chance of it improving to a depression status, and move NW.
Improve it may, but will it hit land as deep system, or fizzle out before hitting land ?

We have to watch and see if the off shore sustains now or "defaltes" in the next 2 days. This would determine the SWM advance above the 18N line.

Mumbai had a couple of showers in the morning, and a sharp shower in the evening with lightning flashes in the NE skies. 3mms at Colaba and 1 mm at S'Cruz.
Max. temperature today at Colaba was 28.9c !
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with 2/3 showers. SWM advance will depend on position and strength of trough now.


11 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would be happy to see some running table of rainfall accumulated over the day, some comparison with last year and any highlight of that particular day. Ideally, the columns could be date, rainfall of the day, fig for same day last year, accumulated for current yr since 01 jun ..this is just a suggestion though...potey

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

You could also add the date and time to the flash snippets. Just a suggestion :)

Tyrone

Anonymous said...

http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/mumbgfs.png

it suggests heavy rain between 8th and 9th june in mumbai!! whats your opinion?

thanks

rajesh said...

@Cmdr Potey...would be better if I put up figures every 15 days instead of daily.Last year was putting up every 15 days during monsoon. Daily is always available at IMD site. Thanks.
@Tyrone..Noted and thanks.
@anonymous. I personally do not estimate such heavy rains in Mumbai for TOMORROW. A few showers for tomorrow (Wed).
Thursday maybe more rains,and shall put up 3 days forecast and my views tonite.

NT said...

Looks like this 'System' is still playing cat and mouse. No model seems to be in agreement on where it will land up. The UKMET feels it will come close to Mumbai and then end up in the Northern Saurashtra region, the CMC feels it will end up bang on Mumbai on the morning of 9th. The GFS sees it going towards the Sindh region. Even by the standards of the known hazards of weather forecasting this one seems to be a real tricky one.

rajesh said...

@NT...and COLA shows it heading for Oman ..now..and till yestedray they indicated its target as Iran !

"Tricky" ? Its challenging..and its been dodging since the last 10 days..in fact waxing and waning too, besides being undecided on the track..and popping in and out of the off shore trough !

Anyway, if you notice, the main guiding force which directs a system , the 200 jet stream, is also confusing and shows variable directions today!

SHITIJ JAIN said...

As we know that system is getting intensified slowly so why the sun is out in the south gujarat region and in mumbai?

Anonymous said...

52 C in Jaccobabad today June 7...just 1 C down to highlight since last year record breaking temperatures...

Anonymous said...

from PWP

rajesh said...

@shitij Jain.
Mumbai ias partly cloudy as the system has clouding on the W/SW quadrant..explained in Vagaries.It is expected for the eastern segment to get cloudy from Thursday..and then maybe i can advance SWM into Mumbai -:)

rajesh said...

@PWP thanks..acknowledged in vagaries also.