Monday, January 31, 2011
Sunday, January 30, 2011
New Current Weather Page added
Detailed Talk on U.S. Weather by Mark updated on International Page today..
Readers, we are privileged to be in partnership with Mark. Sharing such mature and in depth discussions on
W.D. passes away to the East (and weakens).
Sunday (30th. Jan) Precipitation details Gulmarg received 3" of snowfall while Qazigund received 25 mms of snow. Pahalgam and Kokernag had mild snow flakes.
'Due to fresh snowfall and slippery road conditions in Patnitop and Bannihal areas of the highway, the Srinagar-Jammu road has been closed this morning (Sunday),'
Srinagar recorded a low of 1.2c while Gulmarg was the coldest place in the Valley with mercury still settling at -6.3c.
Jammu city recieved 4 mms of rain
Meanwhile, Ladakh region also witnessed some respite from cold with Leh town recording -10c, and Kargil registering -8.8c.
In Delhi, people woke up to a chilly morning with drizzles but a bright sunshine followed in the afternoon.
However, the maximum was 22.4c, a notch below to yesterday''s reading.The city also received 0.5mm of rainfall.
Strong icy wind with sleet lashed higher reaches of H.P., with Kalpa receiving 10 cm of snow. Lahaul and Spiti headquarter Keylong was at -8.9c.
In neighbouring Uttarakhand, the weather was cloudy and cold wind brought down the temperatures. State capital Dehra Dun recorded a low of 7c.
In Pakistan, various parts of Balochistan and Karachi received rain between Friday and Saturday night.In Balochistan, it rained at Quetta, Mastung, Kalat, Khuzdar and other cities.
The rain caused extreme cold weather in some regions.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Pleasant January Weather: Mumbai Page Update tomorrow nite by 10 p.m.
Space News Page Updated today.
The current W.D. has precipitated scattered in all the regions of Pakistan. Though the rainfall did begin from Friday night, it was generally cloudy and light to medium rains were reported from there. Though Vagaries had anticipated rains in Sindh, Karachi far down in the South had good showers, as reported by Tyrone from there. 9 mms of rain was seen in Karachi today. Various places in Balochistan, Punjab (Pakistan) and the Northern regions had between 2 - 10 mms of rain/snow.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
1. W.D. approaches N.India, likely to precipitate moderate rain/snow in Kashmir, H.P.and Punjab on 28th.
2. Medium rains/snow over Pakistan, including Sindh, on 27th./ 28th.
3. Back to back another W.D. on stream.
4. Possibility of Well Marked Low, 1006 mb at the lowest, embedded in Easterly Wave to form in SE Bay, around 6N by 1st/2nd Feb, as per IMD.
Detailed precipitation forecast and write up tonite by 10 pm.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Discussion of the 2010-2011 La Niña
About this video:
Monday, January 24, 2011
Vagaries Forecast Page Updated
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Mark, when you announce
"OUR MORNING LOW OF BETWEEN -6C AND -9C IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND WOULD HAVE BEEN T-SHIRT WEATHER IN THE NORTH AMERICAN INTERIOR WHICH WAS SOME 40 DEGREES CELCIUS LOWER THAN US THIS MORNING!
International Falls, Minnesota hits 46 below zero this morning, coldest since January 1968!"-
You've got me frozen and Numb !
Must read our Partner's report on the Freeze, if that's enough to describe the cold, and get a first hand experience of the current N.American Artic Weather !
This explains it all...and I like this comparison.. !.
"-46F is 78 degrees below freezing
-46F is 123 degrees colder than the current temperature in Ventura, California (77F at 2PM CST)
-46F is 136 degrees colder than 90F"
Must read on..doesn't come often..thankfully !!
Friday, January 21, 2011
Check Vagaries Forecast Page– Updated with Comparison on Friday.
Secondary low (to W.D.) formed on the Rajasthan/Pakistan border, larger portion into Sindh. Possibility of cloudy weather in South Rajasthan and light rain in some areas on 21/22.
An Easterly wave may get some momentum in the Bay and move towards Sri Lanka. Possibility of precipitation nearing Eastern Sri Lanka by Monday,24th.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Cold..Colder...Extreme cold ..N.Hemisphere Freezing all Over ! For details and Our Partner's blog, go to International Page updated now !
Prof Slingo claimed that this was merely a local event, “very much confined to the
The only evidence the Met Office and its warmist allies can adduce to support their belief in the warmth of 2010 is that in certain parts of the world, such as Greenland, Baffin Island and the southern half of Hudson Bay, it was warmer than average. Yet even there temperatures are currently plummeting: Hudson Bay and
"The desperate attempt to establish 2010 as an outstandingly warm year alsorelies on increasingly questionable official data records, such as that run by Dr James Hansen, partly based on large areas of the world which have no weather stations (more than 60 per cent of these have been lost since 1990). The gaps are filled in by the guesswork of computer models, designed by people who prefer the angle in showing that the Earth is continuing to warm".
Reproduced from Rajan's blog to help you vote on the Vagaries current Poll.
Reproduced from Rajan's blog to help you vote on the Vagaries current Poll.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Check Partner’s Latest Update on
By Mark Vogan
The Lows In
H.P.: Darcha: -18.5c, Keylong: -11c ( -4.4c as the max.today), and Manali: -5.8c.
It seems that snow is going to break its previous all records. Lahaul-Spiti and Manali is receiving mild snow but
Musoorie froze today at 0.2c, while Nainital recorded 1.7c as the lowest.
Meanwhile, in Arunachal,, heavy snowfall disrupted normal life in Tawang and several other districts.Several feet of snow covered the entire Tawang township.
Several tourists were stranded at Tawang and Dirang inWest Kameng district following heavy snowfall at
Snowfall was also reported from West Siang,
Awaiting the arrival of a fresh W.D. by 21st. into
Check the 3 hrs accumulated rain image (as a link on this page) for eastward movement of latest actual current rainfall
W.D. is today precipitating light rain in
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Check Vagaries Forecast Page for Summary. Mumbai Page Updated.
A W.D. is expected in Northern India by the 21st of Jan. Precipitation in
Prior to that, on the 20th,
Rain/snow in extreme western
After the 22nd, when the winds revert back to the NW directions, these regions can expect a fall in temperatures
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Sunday, 16th. Jan, sees Severe Temperatures in
Today, Sunday, it was the Valley which shivered, and Ladakh region was a bit “better”. The sudden plunge in the minimum temperature across the Valley was due to the heavy snowfall on Friday,
In H.P. Keylong was coldest in the state at -12.7c. Kalpa was at -9c, and snowfall on Saturday was heavy in some areas.
Shimla experiencing its coldest night of the season on Saturday. The capital saw 5 cm of snow too on Saturday. Water in taps in residential areas located in Shimla's US Club and Jakhu hills remained frozen throughout the day.
On Saturday, Uttarakhand with the higher reaches received heavy snowfall. There was heavy snowfall in Garhwal and Kumaon
Cold wave conditions in interior Karnataka and A.P. prevailed on Saturday/Sunday.Temperatures could drop in Bangalore next 2 nights.
Agumbe was 7c on Saturday, while Rentachintala,
The Nilgiris are witnessing low temperatures, with Ooty touching 4c on Sunday. With more clear nights in the next few days, frost has been forecast for the Nilgiri hills region.
With the upper winds set to change from the prevailing North- Easterly direction, I see the NE monsoon winds retreating from the region in a couple of days.
Nepal: As forecasted, hilly areas of
This is the second time this year that the hilly areas around
However, Neeraj from Khatmandu mentions of very light snow in the city.
Quote Neeraj: “
Snowfall in Manang and Lamjung since Saturday evening has grounded flights in Manang and stranded trekkers along the
The W.D. has moved as a very feeble current into the NE states of
Yesterday’s projection of -1c in
The below normal temperatures will rise to normal levels, as a W.D. approaches the Sub-Continent.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
U.S: All but 1 State has snow !Report on International Page just put up.
Mumbai Forecast Updated. International Page covers Mark on
Trikuta hills, which houses the cave shrine of Mata Vaishnodevi in
The W.D. precipitation was today concentrated in H.P.
Shimla was lashed by rains, sleet, and snowfall today, while Mcleod Ganj near Dharamsala, recorded 20 cm of snow.
Theog and Kufri in Shimla district recorded over 60 cm of snow, while Narkanda received over 130 cm of snow.
Bangana was wettest in the region with 50 mm of rains while Hamirpur and Mehre recorded 46 and 41 mm of rains.
On Friday, the W.D. has moved east into
Another W.D could be knocking on thedoors from the 19th. of January.
Meanwhile, rainfall amounts were good in
Dir 34mm , Balakot 28mm, MalamJaba 24mm, Garidupatta 19mm, Saidu sharif 17mm, Chitral 12mm, Islamabad (Saidpur) 10mm, Rawalpindi, Peshawar 08mm. Snowfall recorded: Kalam 20 cms, Murree 06 inch.
Cold wave conditions have commenced in the Balochistan and Sindh regions. Night temperatures have generally fallen by 2-7c in the region.
These were 6-9c below normal in Balochistan and by 2-5c so, elsewhere in the region.
With Nokundi in the plains dropping to -4.5c on Saturday, nights are expected to drop further with Islamabad possibly going down to -1c and Karachi could see 5/6c in the next 2 nights.
Again, misty/foggy conditions in
Friday, January 14, 2011
Day Long Snow keeps
Gulmarg, the coldest place in the region last night at -8c, received maximum snowfall. Light snowfall was also recorded at Pahalgam.
Rain/snow in H.P. Keylong at a high of -3c with snow, and Kufri 2c. Dalhousie sees 3c as the high.
The tourist resorts of Manali, Narkanda, Chail and Kufri experienced 10 to 15 cm of fresh snow and snowfall was continuing.
Shimla also had a mild snowfall in the morning and theJakoo peak, highest point in the town, recorded 15 cm of snow while Ridge and other places had 4 to 5 cm of snow. Shimla town recorded 2 cm snow since 7.30 am this morning.
Isolated rainfall in Haryana and
Check Mark’s Blog: La-Nina effect of flooding in
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Fluctuation at its Extreme !
Day Temperatures in the Northern Sub Continent shoot up to above Normal levels from very much below
Just a few days ago Vagaries was raving about the days being 12-14c below the normal range in Northern regions of the Sub Continent. Lows, like 7c and 8c, some records of an all time coldest Day, were mentioned here, and
Now, suddenly, the days have shot up to26.4c in the capital (Palam) and 4c above the normal range in most of the region.
It is one thing of things going back to normalcy, to comfortable levels. But this is a straight jump to above normal levels. This is what vagaries is all about !!
Thursday’s map of the day temperatures and the anomaly shows it all.
I would call it the Pre W.D. Heat.
W.D. will start precipitating rain/snow in the
By Saturday, I expect the W.D. effect to spread to
The abrupt spurt in the days is not restricted to the North. The effect is felt far down thru Mah. into the Southern States.
The highest day temperature in
Incidentally, Pattaya, , alongwith the Indian Cities, also at 34c was the highest in
The hottest day in
Mentioning of Maximum temperatures on the Vagaries is meant only to indicate a very sharp “overnite” jump in the days, and should normalize by Friday/Saturday.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Monday, January 10, 2011
OMG! The days are getting really cold..yes…days temperatures in the NW plains and Northern regions of the sub-continent are lower than the day temperatures in the
The humid N winds sweeping the Northern plains, and forming of ground fog due to a stagnant high pressure ridge sitting in the region (1016 mb), but evading the hills, are responsible for the cold biting days.
I have seen cold days in these regions before, but this spell is longer than the previous ones.
Unfortunately, this spell has taken its toll with almost 100 dead in India due to the cold.
On Sunday, 9th. Jan,:
In Punjab, Gurdaspur (AWS) measured only 6.5c as the highest in the day, Patiala 7.4c,
Kaithal (AWS) in Haryana recorded a high of 6.5c and Karnal’s high was 7.4c on Sunday !!
The maximum and Minimum temperatures on Sunday:
The NCMRWF station at Noida recorded a max of 10.3c today (Sunday).
However, as mentioned, the hilly regions are in the “normal” range.
In H.P., Solan was coldest in the lower hills with minimum temperature of -1.0c C while Sundernagar, Bhuntar, Dharamsala, Mandi and Una recorded a low of 2.c, 3..0c C, 3.3c, 3.5c and 4.7crespectively
In the Utterakhand hills, Nainital was high at 11.6c and Mussoorie at 9.5c.
The nights are bitterly cold too;
On the 9th. of Jan, the lowest temperatures in the plains were: :
Nal and Suratgarh : 0.6c,
Panna (AWS) in M.P. was the cold at 0.4c,
Across in the plains of
Similar trend is seen in
The lowest in the plains of
Well, like I mentioned in yesterday’s blog, I surely see this easing up from the 13th. In
With the pressure ridge dropping to 1010 mb initially, and thence to 1008 mb in the region, A fairly good W.D. is on the anvil, and is expected to precipitate rain/snow in Northern and NW regions of the Sub-Continent from the 13th. of Jan. It would be peaking in precipitation on the 14th.and 15th.
The current easterly wave is very active over
It will penetrate into the Southern tip of
I expect rains in southern T.N. and Kerala for a couple of days.
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Read more on Mark's Blog on the updated International page.
Mumbai page updated.
Friday, January 07, 2011
Thursday, January 06, 2011
The IMD minimum temperature map shows the regions gripped in less than 2c and less than 4c, the extreme regions.
Much against Vagaries' predictions,The severe cold wave anomaly "tongue " has moved into more regions towards the SE direction, and eventually covered up the whole of Rajasthan.Now engulfing new areas in Vidharbha and M.P.
In Vidharbha, the low recorded in Wardha was 5.8c, Akola today morning dropped to 6.0c and Nagpur saw 6.3c.
In M.P. Gwalior dipped to 1.6c.
In adjoining U.P. Agra slide doen to 0.6c on Thursday morning.
In Rajasthan the cold intensified further, with Jaipur recording 1.4c, 7c below normal, Jaisalmer 1.2c and Bikaner saw 1.4c.
Detailed analysis tonite after more readings pour in.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Vagaries weekend forecast updated.
Nights were in for severe cold in the Northern and central regions of
Night temperatures in large areas in the North and
Anything more than 6c below normal is taken as “severe Cold wave” as per IMD norms
Very low Minimums on Wednesday morning:
Quazigund: -10.6c, Gulmarg: -9.5c.
M.P.: Umaria 0c,
U.P.: Churk ; 0.6c
Jharkhand: Kanke: 0.5c, Hazaribagh: 2.8c and
On Wednesday, 5th.Jan, even the day temperatures were abnormally below normal in the regions of NW
Very Low Day maximums on Wednesday, 5th. jan:
To show the extent of the day’s cold,
Here we have days as much as 12c below normal.
Posted 21st January Afternoon: Once more, a round of snow for J&K, Ladakh, H.P, and Uttarkahnad with the advancing Western Disturbance ...