Wednesday, February 28, 2018

28 FEB 2018 ..KARJAT TOUCHES 42 c .. KONKAN DRY HEAT WAVE .. (with Mumbai Feb 2018 averages)

Interior Maharashtra also starts heating up with max temps in most parts of the state recorded above 35 c today ..

Such dry heat waves during this time of the year (Feb end) are not uncommon at Konkan and Goa 

Only parts of the western ghats are relatively milder with Mahabaleshwar (lower parts) at 31 c / 10 c and Radhanagri at 33c / 12 c today  (western ghat temp courtesy : skymet aws)

Today's Maharashtra temp map :

Mumbai and surrounding region has experienced a warmer and drier Feb 2018 ..Humidity as low as 14 % has been recorded at Mumbai this Feb .. At Mumbai SCZ , above 35 c temps have been recorded on 6 days ..The min temp did not dip below 15 c ..

Feb 2018 averages .. Mumbai SCZ ..33.2 c(+1) / 18.8 (+1)
Badlapur .. 34.8 c (+2) / 16.8 c (+1) (thanks to Abhijit for Badlapur readings)
Colaba .. 31.6 c / 21.5 c 

For the record .. Feb 2008 was the coolest Feb in recent years at Mumbai SCZ , averaging 30.1 c / 14.6 c with lowest min temp recorded @ 8.5 c .. 
Feb 2012 also saw min temp at Mumbai SCZ dip to single digit@ 8.8 c ..Highest temp @ 39.1 c ..

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Posted 27th Tuesday Night
Official Heat Wave (February Heat Wave) in Coastal Saurashtra and South Gujarat/Konkan coast.



Reason 
IMD Pune Chart

Sunday, February 25, 2018

Konkan Region in Maharashtra gets heated today! 
As Mentioned in this Blog on the 20th of February, 
From last week Interior Konkan was witnessing daily rise in day temperature and today much of coastal area also joined the league with hot land breeze from N/NE and absence of WD's cold winds penetration making early heating up like situation. 
Means after mid March weather pattern witnessing in Feb end itself. 



Map by Vagarian Tejas & Data by Vagarian Abhijit



Similarly S.Konkan also witness the heating today ! Some max temp in Celsius on 25/02/18:

Ratnagiri 38.3 (above normal by 7c!)
Panaji 36.3 (above normal by 4c)
Vengurla 36.1 (above normal by 4.4c)



°


Friday, February 23, 2018


Rains/Snow Expected in North India this weekend. 

Rains likely in plains on NW India. Rains/Thundershowers likely in Madhya Maharashtra and West M.P.
Day temperatures dropping in the North. Rising temperatures in Vidharbh and Telengana.

Sunday 25th rainfall likely in Muscat with weather cooling down.
Sunday will see "heavy" rains in Abu Dhabi. Around 7-10 mms expected and strong winds.


Siberian super frost to invade large portion of Europe


A “truly extraordinary” wave of frost will cover more than half of Europe, warns Meteo Giornale. A mass of very cold, glacial air will stretch directly from Siberia into Russia, cross the Urals and then expand to the heart of the Old Continent.
It will be “an epochal event for the end of February,” not only in Italy, but also in parts of Europe. “It is very unusual at the end of February to have to deal with freezing flows of such intensity, it is a historical.”
.
.
Frost waves of this magnitude are quite rare for this period at the end of winter.
The invasion of freezing from Russia to Central and Eastern Europe over the weekend and beginning on Sunday the frigid winds of Bora will also reach Italy, bursting on the Gulf of Trieste and the Upper Adriatic and then spreading over the North and then Marche, Umbria and Tuscany.
Forecasts indicate that the Center-North of Italy could be hit, with frost and even snow to the plains,  perhaps exceptional snowfall. If snow falls in Rome, it has never occurred in this period in the last 30 years.
San Francisco:
Both the 2 news above from Ice Age Now

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Posted 20th February Tuesday Night:

Heat to build up this week  (21st -24th) in Madhya Maharashtra ( Pune/Ahmednagar) North Konkan and South Gujarat Coast (Surat).....
F-3 to precipitate in North and Central India from 23rd...
Hails likely in Madhya Maharashtra.

As Western Disturbance F-2, currently over the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, moves away in a day or two after precipitating Rain/snow over the mountains, we see another Western Disturbance F-3 moving into India .
F-3 will bring rains to most of Northern Pakistan and Upper Sindh regions on 23rd. Some isolated thundershowers expected in Central Sindh ans Pakistan Northern plains.

F-3 will be having a deeper trough , into the plains of India, and will move in on the 23rd. Besides heavy precipitations in Kashmir and H.P, we will see rains in the plains also. 

On 24th, Punjab, Haryana, adjoining West U.P,  Delhi,  Rajasthan, West M.P. and even Northern Madhya Maharashtra will get Thunder showers. 
Hailstorms are expected in North Madhya Maharashtra on Friday 23rd and Saturday 24th.
The regions get rains , with hail on 24th also, and more parts of Maharshtra will get rainfall. North Madhya Maharashtra and  Marathwada will be affected by hails.

Meanwhile, the Konkan Coast of Maharashtra is likely to heat up during the week. Temperatures expected to touch 40c this week itself.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy on Thursday, and warm.
Pune: Cloudy on Friday, getting warmer in the week, as mercury will rise to 34/35c.
Delhi NCR: Hotter during the week , around 30/31c in the daytime. Showers on Saturday 24th.
Baroda will be warm at 36/37c during the wee. Light rain expected on 24th.

Saturday, February 17, 2018

World Snippets of Current winter;

Moscow's 2017 December was its 'darkest' on record
December set the record for the least amount of sunshine seen in Moscow, Russian weather experts say.
"The sun didn't come out even once for the entire month," said the weather website Meteonovosti.
According to Russia's main weather centre, the sun did shine for six minutes. But normally Muscovites get dozens of hours of December sunshine.

Morocco: A rare snowfall for second time this winter

Giant hail fell Thursday in Argentina. (Victoria Druetta)
The hail started around 4:30 in the afternoon in Cordoba, Argentina. At first, it was “tiny and fun,” but then it changed. Hailstones larger than tennis balls began to fall from the sky, eventually growing to mammoth size.
Victoria Druetta hurriedly snagged one giant stone that fell in her neighbourhood of Carlos Paz, snapped a photo of it and placed it in her freezer.
“The hail lasted 20 minutes. It was kind of scary,” Druetta recalled. “It hit and then exploded and then melted some. It was probably even bigger.”

The stone looks to be up to 18 centimetres in diameter — 7.1 inches — at its largest width, which could be a record for the Southern Hemisphere. The stone’s unusual size made it difficult to measure because of its bumpy surface and because it melted a bit before Druetta put it down on a tape measure.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colder winters, warmer springs. Perhaps we should call it Climate Displacement….!
Record 2018 snowfall continues increasing snowfall trends....excerpts from Larry Hamlin essay.
The record snowfalls of 2018 that are sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere and continuing the growth trend in winter snowfall levels 
NOAA Northern Hemisphere snowfall recorded levels in the last 10 or more years show increasing trends in winter snowfall over the prior such period in both North America and Eurasia with 2018 snowfall records likely further adding to these trends.

These real world snowfall level trends suggests that climate models are both unreliable and inadequate for representing global climate 

“Future widespread reductions of SCE (Snow Cover Extent), particularly in spring, are simulated by the CMIP3 models (Roesch, 2006; Brown and Mote, 2009) and confirmed by the CMIP5 ensemble (Brutel-Vuilmet et al., 2013).”

Note that the phrase “Future widespread reductions, particularly in spring” clearly suggests snowfall trend declines in other seasonal periods with those being fall and winter.

“The chart in the post covers the ENTIRE winter that shows an increase over all.”
and the spring chart shows the entire spring. The winter chart shows an increase of around 1 million square km, over 50 years, the spring one shows a drop of around 3 million square km over the same period.

Saturday, February 10, 2018



A memorable visit by Vagaries to Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune... 8th Feb 2018

The visit, hosted by the IITM under the guidance of Prof Dr Milind Mujumdarji, Scientist E. 
It was indeed very warm welcome and helpful approach of IITM professional weather scientists interacting with Vagaries' amateur meteorologists.

Seven of us from Vagaries, Rajesh , Abhijit, Abhishek, Vineet, Shreyas, Gokul & Rajdeepak were studying and visiting IITM. ( Vineet, Shreyas, Gokul & Rajdeepak are already affiliated students with IITM who have decided to take their weather hobby into professional studies. 

We first went to the office of Dr Milind Mujumdarji,Scientist E where another scientist Mr Sunil Ghanekarji, Scientist D also welcome us. Their  vast knowledge on climate modeling & Indian summer Monsoon dynamics was captivating and had us all listening. Ghanekerji has immense knowledge on weather charts of different wind levels. Drawing exact trough, low position is his specialization, as he explained to us the actual interpretation of a trough or Low is very important, and can alter a situation if interpretation is analysed differently.. Inter-acting with both was very informative.
Both of them patiently explained and answered all our queries related to forecasting.

After an hour of interesting session with Dr.Milindji & Ghanekarji, we were taken to the conference hall, where presentation on various topics like SAFAR, MME forecasting model in general with special reference to Monsoon meteorology and Air Ocean interaction with Indian subcontinent monsoon.

Firstly M/S Aishwarya, gave presentation on System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research" known as "SAFAR" which has been setup, for the first time in India, at greater metropolitan cities of India to provide location specific information on air quality in near real time and its forecast 1-3 days in advance . It (Forecast) has been combined with the early warning system on weather parameters. And main objective of the project is to increase awareness among general public regarding the air quality in their city well in advance so that appropriate mitigation measures and systematic action can be taken up for betterment of air quality and related health issues. 



Then Dr Anant Parekh Ji Scientist D, explained how weather forecast models works and how important initial feeding parameters at T-0 helps in achieving accurate prediction and at T-0, if we have more errors then further expading and progressive  errors  go on expanding ! So for understanding proper initial conditions how data assimilating needs to be accurate . Dr. also enlightened us with his immense knowledge on Satellite Oceanography & Ocean Atmosphere and how it plays an important role in diagnosing the rainfall & temperature patterns across the globe .



Then Mr. Somanth Mahapatra Ji Scientist E, explained how IITM does MME forecast using the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2). Also introduced and explained the Monsoon Mission project management in which how for the  past 5 yrs Indian Southwest monsoon forecast probability was achieved correctly in All India estimation category .He enlightened us on Numerical weather prediction (NWP) using regional and Meso-scale models & Seasonal and extended range prediction of monsoon which are useful in knowing wet & dry phases in monsoon so that respected body can be aware of.



All this presentation went with live interaction, as queries from us were answered patiently.  


Later lunch arrangements was made for us in the IITM canteen. We had great lunch break time too. So we are really thankful for it.



After lunch we were taken to field visit, where we saw Cosmic Ray soil moisture monitoring system(COSMOS), is an latest soil moisture detecting instruments which are specially ordered from Germany,  and currently testing and research is carried out so in future it can be implemented to achieve accuracy in given diameter of farming area. This is the field-scale soil moisture measurement technique. Soil moisture variations are very important, and it is necessary to predict a "water run off" or "Water soaking" capacity of the soil. Important for farm sustenance.

And all it's technical configuration & working physics was very well explained by Mr. Mangesh Goswami, project scientist for COSMOS, who joined us for this field visit. Also Mr. Naresh Ganeshi an PhD student & Shreyas' batch-mate, Kunal, joined us for further all lab visits. ( interacting with upcoming weather scientist). 

Also we were shown SAFAR instruments which measures the air pollution and it's display which were reflecting live parameters like PM10, PM2.5, C0,NO2,O3.

Later we were guided to various scientific research labs of IITM like Isotope stable Mass Spectrometer Lab, Paleoclimatology Lab, Lightning Monitoring Lab and Tree-Ring Chronology ( Dendrology)Lab. At each Labs the scientists guided us and explained their respective ongoing research.

We are thankful to the arrangement and hospitality shown by all the IITM officials we met, answering our queries in details and explaining everything with patience.

Truly IITM is a pillar of Meteorology and Allied fields in India. 







Sunday, February 04, 2018

Study: Early humans witnessed global cooling, warming, and massive fires from comet debris impacts

From the UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS and the “humans have survived far worse climates” department.
Graph of temperature for the last 20,000 years, provided to illustrate this story, but was not part of the original press release.
New research suggests toward end of Ice Age, human beings witnessed fires larger than dinosaur killers
LAWRENCE — On a ho-hum day some 12,800 years ago, the Earth had emerged from another ice age. Things were warming up, and the glaciers had retreated.
Out of nowhere, the sky was lit with fireballs. This was followed by shock waves.
Fires rushed across the landscape, and dust clogged the sky, cutting off the sunlight. As the climate rapidly cooled, plants died, food sources were snuffed out, and the glaciers advanced again. Ocean currents shifted, setting the climate into a colder, almost “ice age” state that lasted an additional thousand years.
Finally, the climate began to warm again, and people again emerged into a world with fewer large animals and a human culture in North America that left behind completely different kinds of spear points.
This is the story supported by a massive study of geochemical and isotopic markers just published in the Journal of Geology.
The results are so massive that the study had to be split into two papers.
“Extraordinary Biomass-Burning Episode and Impact Winter Triggered by the Younger Dryas Cosmic Cosmic Impact ~12,800 Years Ago” is divided into “Part I: Ice Cores and Glaciers” and “Part 2: Lake, Marine, and Terrestrial Sediments.”
The paper’s 24 authors include KU Emeritus Professor of Physics & Astronomy Adrian Melott and Professor Brian Thomas, a 2005 doctoral graduate from KU, now at Washburn University.
“The work includes measurements made at more than 170 different sites across the world,” Melott said.
The solid line defines the current known limits of the Younger Dryas Boundary field of cosmic-impact proxies, spanning 50 million square kilometers. Again, used to illustrate this story, not part of the original press release.
The KU researcher and his colleagues believe the data suggests the disaster was touched off when Earth collided with fragments of a disintegrating comet that was roughly 62 miles in diameter — the remnants of which persist within our solar system to this day.
“The hypothesis is that a large comet fragmented and the chunks impacted the Earth, causing this disaster,” said Melott. “A number of different chemical signatures — carbon dioxide, nitrate, ammonia and others — all seem to indicate that an astonishing 10 percent of the Earth’s land surface, or about 10 million square kilometers, was consumed by fires.”
According to Melott, analysis of pollen suggests pine forests were probably burned off to be replaced by poplar, which is a species that colonizes cleared areas.
Indeed, the authors posit the cosmic impact could have touched off the Younger Dryas cool episode, biomass burning, late Pleistocene extinctions of larger species and “human cultural shifts and population declines.”
“Computations suggest that the impact would have depleted the ozone layer, causing increases in skin cancer and other negative health effects,” Melott said. “The impact hypothesis is still a hypothesis, but this study provides a massive amount of evidence, which we argue can only be all explained by a major cosmic impact.”
 Taken From "Watts Up With That "

HAPPY DIWALI .. Vagaries exclusive .. Festive weather series.. Part 3. . Past 20 years   Diwali days (Narak Chaturdashi / Lakshmi Poojan...