Instead of Sunday, the low has formed in the bay on Monday, not too much off the mark ! On Monday, it is off the North A.P. coast and with a core pressure of 1000 mb. The streamline map attached is of Monday evening, and shows the low clearly formed.
Meanwhile, yes, the northern limit of the monsoon will remain stuck, for the time being (again), at the N. Maharashtra border and eastwards below Orissa and covering state of W.Bengal.
By the way, IMD has now removed the monsoon from North India today! Refer my blog dated 15th. Sept. I maintain the withdrawal status at that.
Now, the low, at present is showing good clouding bands in the eastern segmant, and with the projected movement eastwards, the expected natural consequence will be rains in interior Maharashtra and N. Karnataka next few days. The eastwards movement of the low can be a good sign of late season rains for the regions of interior Maharshtra and Northern regions of Karnataka, on Tuesday (29th. and Wednessday, 30th.).
The A.P. coast will also get substantially good rains for a day on Tuesday, and some "spill over" rains to precipitate rains to W.Bengal, and Kolkatta areas, but only for a couple of days.
But not much or meaning full rains in T.N. this week.
By the 1st. of October, the system could possibly carry itself into the Arabian Sea via Goa. On this day, that is the 1st. as a result, Goa, and north coastal Karnataka should expect heavy rains for a couple of days.
Some rains will extend into south Konkan also on the first 2 days of next month.
Possibly, the system may regain strenght in the Arabian Sea. But that we shall record and discuss in the next blog to follow on the 1st. of October.
We will possibly have to look east then, as typhoon ketsana is promising to send another low in the bay around the first week !
Mumbai: As "promised", after a dry weekend, some rain should resume this week. Tuesday should see a shower or two, and the day will be partly cloudy. Wednessday will see a thundershower, maybe towards evening. Some increase in rain is possible on Wednessday evening. Days will be hot at 33c, and nights at 27c will be above the normal by a few notches.