Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Exceptional heatwave in West Bengal and Odisha

Maximum temperature recorded on 30 April 2024 in West Bengal (bracket values denote temperature departure from normal)

Kolkata: 43c (+7.4)

Uluberia: 43c (+9.5)

Midnapore: 45.5c (+8.7)

Bankura: 45.1c (+7.4)

Kalaikunda: 47.2c (+10.4)

Burdwan: 44.0c (+8.4)

Panagarh: 45.6c (+10)

Barrackpore: 44.6c (+8.6)

Malda: 42.6c (+7.6)

Balurghat: 41c (+6.2)

Maximum temperature recorded on 30 April 2024 in Odisha (bracket values denote temperature departure from normal)

Jharsuguda: 44.2c (+3.6)

Angul: 44.7c (+4.5)

Baripada: 46.4c (+8.9)

Bhubaneshwar: 45.4c (+7.6)

Balasore: 46.0c (+10.1)

Cuttack: 44.2c (+7.1)

Data source: IMD


 MumbaiThe April 2024 weather  

Hearing a lot about the  "Heat Wave " in Mumbai this April. 



Let us now study, how we compare with the April "Highest" Temperatures since 1950... and 2024 saw the 8th hottest April day at 39.7c


April 1952 saw the hottest ever April at 42.2c,👇


April 2024 saw the highest of 39.7c, and, it is ranked joint 8th with 2009 in the list of Month's previous highs !👇

Talking about Warm Nights, the warmest night in April ever was in 2011, when the minimum was 29c. This year, 2024, the warmest night in April was at 27.5c.

Pune : April 2024: Highest 41.8c on 29th....not even in the first ten highest readings for April.

Record 43.3c on 30-4-1897.

Maharashtra: Konkan region saw slightly above normal temperatures in April. The rest of Maharashtra was almost normal to below normal.




 30th April 

Bangalore special forecast:

The long dry spell is likely to be broken around 2nd May. After seeing temperatures consistently above 37°c since last 9 days.

 Bangalore region is likely to get thunderstorms during the period 2nd to 5th May.

Mysore region as well as Nilgiris may get good thunderstorms during this period.

Ooty recorded 29.0°c on Monday 29th.

The all time  record for any month  thus broken which was 28.5°c on 29-4-1986.


Monday, April 29, 2024

Today, 29th April,  


Mumbai recorded 39.1°c. This being the 2nd highest of this season. Now, technically, this is termed as a " heatwave ", being 5° above the normal.
The real feel was 40°, and the humidity being very low at 20%.
Colaba saw 35.2°c, 2°above normal.
The all time April record however is 42.2°c on 14-4-1952.
We can expect the Mumbai temperatures to reach sane levels of around 35° by 2nd May 
We can attribute thus intense heat due to the strong Anti Cyclobe, or High Pressure in the Arabian Sea,  which is seasonal .
The point to note is that this hot weather is restricted to Konkan region. (Yesterday Matheran, at 700 metres asl, recorded 39°c, its highest ever April reading).

Hotbeds like Vidharbh and Marathwada are near normal in day temperatures. 
IMD Bulletin 👇


No rain is expected soon.

Sunday, April 28, 2024

 28th April 2024...

Today's heat reminds us of similar heat of 2019,  Similar heat on date. 🔥

Now in 28-4-2024👇

Matheran all time high for April this year.


Then in 27-4-2019👇



The positive side: We had a very good Monsoon in 2019.  Record rainfall of 3670 mms in Scruz

8521 mms in Mahabaleshwar. 

Friday, April 26, 2024

Posted 26th April 2024...
Currently, no indications of any Severe Heat Waves or highly above normal temperatures this season...



And currently, Maharashtra in absolutely "Normal" Range for this time of the year...👇


26th April ...👇


Traditional "Hotbeds"👇..26th April



 GLOBAL AURORAS ON MARS: 

Earth isn't the only planet with auroras. Mars has them, too--on a global scale. 
See interesting News on Space News Page

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Weather outlook from Thursday 25th to Sunday 28th April. 


Mumbai: Typical Mumbai Summer with hot and humid weather expected till Friday 26th April, with days around 34°C, nights around 25-26°C with high humidity. Days will get hotter over the weekend, with max temperatures going upto 37-38°C in western parts, and 38-40°C in eastern suburbs due to hot northerly breeze. 

Thane district and parts of Navi Mumbai can see above 40°C max temperatures over the weekend. 


Pune: Similar weather pattern to continue, no major change is expected. Days can be hot around 39°C, maybe touching 40°C over the weekend. Some localized thunderstorms may pop up around the city, but no major relief is expected from the hot weather. Nights can remain slightly better around 22-23°C. 


Parts of north Madhya Maharashtra (Jalgaon), Marathwada (Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna) and Vidarbha (Buldhana, Akola, Amravati, Washim, Nagpur, Bhandara, Chandrapur, Yavatmal) to get thunderstorms for next 2-3 days. 

Nagpur region max temperature may remain around 39-40°C (and not much beyond 40°C) due to some rain/thunderstorms.


Thunderstorms due to line of wind discontinuity (LWD) will develop in few areas near and east of the Western Ghats of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala. 

Maharashtra districts of Pune, Raigad, Satara, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Kolhapur, Ahilyanagar and places like Belgaum, Dharwad/Hubli may get some thunderstorms during the next 4 days. Rain will not be uniformly spread. 


Gujarat: Usual hot summer weather is expected across the state. Mainly dry weather with maximum temperatures around 40-41°C in most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and Ahmedabad/Vadodara regions. Surat/Valsad regions can see max temperatures of 36-38°C. 

Weather to get hotter over eastern states of India with above 42°C temperatures and heatwave conditions in parts of Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Telangana and Chhattisgarh🔥.

Himalayan regions of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will get some rain/thunderstorms from Friday-Sunday due to an approaching Western Disturbance. Some snow expected in high elevations as well. 
Parts of Punjab/Haryana can get some dust storms followed by thunderstorms. 

Sunday, April 21, 2024

 Monsoon Watch -2 ...2024....21st April.

1.Mascrene Highs...

This is a series of Very High Pressure areas. The power house of the S.W. Monsoon forming down South. 

Formations below the Normal requirement.



Indicator: Negative

2. Seasonal Pre Monsoon Heat...well,  there is complaint of "Heat", but observe the real scene.

The squares show the "below normal" anomaly. The Monsoon parameters see this....reality 


Indicator : Normal


3. Seasonal Low

Core between 1006 mb...Should normally be 1004/1006.......As mentioned, by end May/early June it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.

Indictor: Neutral.

4. The Line of Wind Discontinuity in Peninsula India, should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. 
But this year it has been active first half of April, and continuing into latter half of April

Indicator: Neutral

5. ENSO;
An ENSO event is not active in the tropical Pacific Ocean and there are no signs of an El Niño or La Niña developing. Possible with signs of La Nina developing.
But La Nina is not the only parameter for estimating our Monsoon.

Indicator: Positive

6. Bay Low:
The Bay has yet to host a pre monsoon low during  April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April. 
Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. 
C
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
24
27
30
35


Indicator: Positive

After 2007, this is the first time when both +IOD and La Nina may develop and exist simultaneously during the core SWM months (July/August).

Overall Summary: Parameters 
1. Negative
2. Normal 
3. Neutral 
4. Neutral 
5. Positive 
6. Positive
Seems (without commitment today)..SWM onset could be on time

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 

No model can commit  today when the Monsoon can arrive. 

Also, Quantum of rain forecasting in April for June right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. 
Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 

 Monsoon Watch  -2 coming up at 11 pm IST Today.

Saturday, April 20, 2024

20th April 

Understanding the Pacific - the process of formation of the upcoming La Nina has begun!


We had put up an article in Weather Knowledge last year (Weather Knowledge - 48), which had described the El Nino and La Nina phases of the Pacific. 

Now, let us look at the conditions in the equatorial waters of the Pacific to see the situation this year.

El Nino or La Nina usually starts forming in the middle of the year and peaks during the period December-February. 

El Nino - A condition wherein the water in the eastern equatorial Pacific is warmer than normal i.e., the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive (anomalously warm). 

La Nina - A condition wherein the water in the eastern equatorial Pacific is cooler than normal i.e., the sea surface temperature anomalies are negative (anomalously cool). 

Below images show the snapshots from October 2022 to March 2024, which show

  • The ending of La Nina of 2022-2023 (which was actually a 3-year event, from 2020 onwards!)
  • Formation and peaking of El Nino of 2023-2024 
  • Now the decline of the 2023-2024 El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific.






The ending of the recent El Nino is also seen in the 90-day animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies below:


     (credits: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA).


In the Pacific Ocean, the surface water is pushed from east to west along the equatorial region due to easterly winds at the surface across the ocean.

Below the surface, water slowly travels west to east, and rises to the surface near the coast of Peru (a process called upwelling).

The sub-surface water in the equatorial Pacific at present is abnormally cool, with a peak cool anomaly of greater than 4°C (i.e., more than 4°C below normal). 

This water is now seen rising up to the surface at the eastern boundary of the Pacific, near the equator (see the animation below). 

And although the sun heats the surface waters, this cold pool of water is cold enough to withstand the warming upon exposure to sunshine, and so is likely to remain cooler than normal, thereby resulting into a La Nina event.

The x-axis covers the extent of the Pacific Ocean and the y-axis is the depth below the surface (credits: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA).


We can also see this cold anomaly off the coast of Peru in the below image of sea surface temperatures:

     (credits: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA).


Therefore, the process of formation of La Nina has begun. As this cold water keeps rising up to the surface, the surface winds will help it spread westwards along the equator. 

Presently, the conditions are neutral over the Pacific. They will gradually shift from neutral to La Nina in the coming months, with La Nina establishing probably from/after August.
 
Below is the outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for the 3 monthly phase of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation):





La Nina is known to be beneficial for the Southwest Monsoon over India. So, this development is one favourable factor for this year's Monsoon!

By Vagarian Shreyas 

Friday, April 19, 2024

Weekend outlook; 20th/21st/22nd April

Mumbai:

Dry heat gone...warm stuffy discomfort coming !

After seeing blistering heat last week at 38/39°, the next three days will witness a drop in day temperatures to 34/35°. But, with the humidity going high to almost 80%  the actual feel ( 38°c) will be more sweaty and uncomfortable. 

Warm stuffy nights at 26°c.

Pune

Possibility of patchy thundershowers in some areas.

Days around 39/40°c. But humidity around 55% may make it stuffy.

Above Normal nights at 23°c.

Mahabaleshwar:

At 33°c, Hot and warm by this hill station standards, resulting in a thundershower on Saturday/Sunday. 


Thursday, April 18, 2024

Reasons for heavy rainfall over UAE and parts of Oman 

Clarification of some doubts, Vagaries briefly explains the reasons behind the recent heavy rains and thunderstorms which lashed UAE and Oman. 

The main reason - a strong trough in the jet stream (strong Western Disturbance, as we call these systems over India) which was strong enough to generate a low-pressure system near the surface close to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf. 
This system had typical characteristics which are seen in weather systems in the midlatitudes, and so strong thunderstorms and rainbands formed near the boundary between winds from opposite directions (see below image from National Center for Meteorology, UAE).



Also, this event was well forecasted by various Global weather forecast models well in advance, therefore signifying that the natural processes were most likely governing this weather system. 

Such high-intensity extreme rainfall in this part of the world is rare but not unheard of.


Clarification on some confusion on common meteorological features over the Arabian Sea:

  • A high-pressure system (anticyclone) is present in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the Arabian Sea, usually from March to May-end, till Monsoon onset. 

  • The presence of this high pressure causes some southerly winds over the Oman coast, but does not give such extreme rainfall. 
  • This high pressure is seen every year, but we do not see such rain events every year. 

The observed heavy rainfall event was due to the trough in the Jet stream as explained above.

Impacts on the western parts of India:

  • The variation in the location and intensity of this high pressure also affects the weather for the west coast of India, by sometimes delaying the sea breeze or even setting in the sea breeze early.
 High pressures create sinking air or subsidence and are often associated with clear skies and dry weather. Such high pressure areas have caused heatwave like conditions with very dry weather and low humidity for Mumbai during February end and early March in the past years.

  • There was no strong high pressure over western Maharashtra across the first few kilometers of the atmosphere, otherwise we wouldn't have witnessed thunderstorms developing over the Ghats and Madhya Maharashtra regions.
  • Explained by Vagarian Shreyas








 

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

 U.A.E. Oman and Dubai face severe W.D.

SEE WORLD WEATHER NEWS PAGE 

UAE had surpassed all the paper records in 75 years  since 1949


They recv more than enough.


Total rainfall of 3.5 years receives in just 1.5days


Highest places received rainfall between

14.04.2024 to 17.04.02024 morning 


Khatam Al shaknah in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)

259.5 mm


Kalba in sharjah 

239.5mm


Al Marmoom in Dubai Al ain road

219.4mm


Wadi Al tuwa in ras Al khaimah

205.6mm


Margham in dubai

200.6mm


Saih Al Salem in Dubai

198.6mm


Ras Al Ghanadah in Dubai

197.1mm



Al faqa in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)

189.1mm


Raknah and Al qattara in Al ain(Abu Dhabi)

186.1mm


Al jurf in Dubai 

185.9mm


Umm Al Ghar in Al ain(Abu Dhabi)

178.1mm


Al rowdah in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)

176.2mm


Dubai IA

142mm



Al ain IA

127.2mm


Sharjah  IA

123.8mm


Zayed IA(Abu Dhabi)

100.2mm


Ras al khaimah(IA)

48.5mm


Abu Dhabi city

91.1mm


Dubai Jumeirah

168mm

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Forecast for Mumbai/Pune:

Similar weather expected for Mumbai and Pune for Wednesday 17th April. 

Mumbai: Hot daytime weather in Mumbai city and suburbs, followed by humid afternoon and evening/night. Thane district will be hotter with above 40C max.
Eastern outer townships of Thane/Raigad district may see some localized thundery buildup and rain.

Some reduction in daytime heat can be expected from Thursday/Friday with the early onset of sea breeze.

Pune: Hot daytime temperatures, followed by thunderstorms for Pune and Ghat regions.
Pune region can see similar weather even for Thursday 16th April.


Parts of Konkan can get rain/thunderstorms next 2 days in some areas (more chance for interiors near Ghats).

 16th April

Temperatures around Mumbai

Mumbai Scruz 39.7° ( April record is 42.2° on 24-4- 1952).

Colaba 35.2° ( April record 40.6° on 19 -4-1955).

Koparkhairne 43.0°, Chembur 37.7°



Pune 40.7° with hails and thundershowers 

Looking Down from Space !A Different angle of seeing the Total Solar Eclipse. Other than the one we see normally:





The Moon’s shadow swept over North America, from the Pacific coast of Mexico, through Texas, and over the Great Lakes before crossing the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland, Canada.

On April 8, 2024, millions of Americans saw day turn temporarily to night as the Moon passed between the Sun and Earth to create a total solar eclipse.

As people in the 115-mile-wide (185-kilometer-wide) path of totality looked up and saw the Moon conceal the bright orb of the Sun and obscure all but its wispy corona, Earth-observing satellites captured imagery of the Moon’s shadow as it raced eastward over North America.

About 1 million miles from Earth, NASA’s EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera) imager on the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite, captured the above views of Earth.

NASA Earth Observatory

Monday, April 15, 2024

Today..15th 

Pune : 40.8°c..with thundershowers 

Mahabaleshwar 33.0°c

Mumbai MMR👇

Mumbai and Interior in line with our weekly estimate.

------------------------------

The topic of excited discussion encouraged by the "Warming" publicity...

"Wow..really hot this year..never seen this in April..etc"....But,

Public memory is very short..👇👇👇

15th April 2016...from Vagaries blog 👇


Sunday, April 14, 2024

14th April...Flash News

Gujarat Rains in Kutch Desert and parts of Saurashtra : 

Anjar Kutch 56mm👇

From Vag. Gaurav

Some centres of west  Saurashtra got heavy showers as well...Mahuva 22 mms

And vagaries were the first few to announce this in our 13th April article 👇


First two weeks of April 2024 for Pune third warmest since 2013

Pune (Shivajinagar) recorded the highest temperature of the season on 14 April which is 39.9c.

The average maximum temperature of April so far (1-14 April) is 39.2c, this is the third highest average maximum temperature in this period since 2013.

The attached map shows the average maximum temperature for Pune Shivajinagar in the first 2 weeks of April since 2013. Data: IMD




Saturday, April 13, 2024

Weather forecast from Saturday 13th to Tuesday 16th April - Active pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity across the country


The ongoing rain/thundery activity in Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh will continue till Saturday 13th April. Temperatures are expected to rise from Sunday 14th April.

Mumbai: Hot and humid weather, typical April like Summer.
Mumbai: Last 7 days👇

 Days will be around 33-34C, nights around 24-25C. 
Weather to get hotter from Monday 15th April, with max temperature rising to around 35-37C for most of Mumbai and 39-42C across Thane district. 
Some thundery activity is possible on Monday 15th April for eastern outer townships in Thane/Raigad districts. 

Pune: No major change in the weather for the weekend, with hot days around 39C and nights slightly better around 20C. Some patchy clouds may develop in the afternoon/evening due to slight increase in humidity. 
However, Monday 15th and Tuesday 16th April could see some pre-monsoon thunderstorms in/around Pune city, which can provide some relief from the ongoing heat. But, nights can get warmer to 22-24C.

Forecasted near-surface winds for Monday. Thunderstorm formation is possible along the Line of Wind Discontinuity near Western Ghats.


Madhya Maharashtra regions of Pune, Nashik, Satara, Kolhapur, Ahilyanagar, Dhule, Jalgaon can get rain/thunderstorms in few areas (not well distributed).

An active Western Disturbance will affect the country from Saturday 13th April.

Rain/thunderstorms expected in Western Himalayas (Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand) with snow in higher elevations. 

Dust storms followed by Rain/thunderstorms likely in areas of Rajasthan Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR. Some places may get hail.

Forecasted winds at 700 hPa on Sunday - lot of moisture transport from Arabian Sea.


Gujarat: Some rain/thunderstorms with gusty winds also expected in parts of Saurashtra and Kutch regions (Bhuj, Rajkot, Junagadh). Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar region could get some rain on Sunday 14th April. Hail is also possible in few areas.

The WD effect will shift eastwards, with states like Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh and most of northeastern states seeing increase in precipitation from Sunday 14th to Tuesday 16th April. Assam may get some strong thunderstorms during 15th-16th. 

21st May  *Seasonal Low Pressure forming in South Bay of Bengal on 22nd. *Will pull up the South West Monsoon into the Andamans.  *System wi...