Monday, December 31, 2012

Severe. cold moving in from the west as temperatures fall in Pakistan.
Karachi saw a low of 8c on Saturday and 8.5c on Sunday. Hyderabad (Sindh)dipped to 7c and in the plains, Nokkundi froze at -5.5c,  Sibbi froze at -4.5c on Sunday morning.
 Could expect the wave to spread into Rajasthan and adjoining regions of Haryana and Delhi...
lows below 5c expected...
Amritsar had the coldest day in the plains on Sunday with the day rising to only 9.4c....

Surat has shown a declining trend last two days, and confirmed with our forecast. Shitij mentions of some clouding on Sunday, and has put up a pic conforming this in fb.

readers mention of some rainfall in N.I. Karnataka and S.Maharashtra. some confirmations show rainfall between 5-10 mms.

though the supporting system has weakened, I expect some more clouding over Pune .

Lucknow reading shown in Imd is 0,7c on Sunday morning. not too convincing to me, and shall confirm on my return...

clouding to increase over Mumbai Monday.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Surat has dropped to around 30c and low to 14c, and will remain so till 31st as mentioned.
New Delhi South winds started today and expect the day to rise.
chennai has got 22 mms and 10 mms at the two stations, so as per vagaries standard, the average rain till Saturday morning is 16 mms.

A favourable CAPE shows signs of moving along with the trough line, Northwards thru Karnataka and Southern Mah.

On. Friday, the days were cooler on the mainland India, and the Lakshdweep Island city of Amini Divi was highest at 34.8c....coolest day in Asia was at Oymyakon at -48c....just for information..

Friday, December 28, 2012

The UAC mentioned earlier in the South, is set to enter TN on schedule by 28th. From this upper air system, already embedded in the trough, rains along the TN coast can be expected next 2 days from Friday.
Chennai can get some showers, with gusty winds from the NE. Friday,Saturday,Sunday, i would expect cumulative of around 25 mms in Chenai.
as I expect the system to now move N/NW. Somewhat along the coast. maybe upto Bengal by the 31st...but this to be observed.

AS this moves, rainfall mov along interior Karnataka and into S. Mah by the 30th.
N.I. Karnataka can get showers on the 29th,and Bangalore a day earlier, as mentioned before.

Mumbai and Pune change from the 29th till 31st, as SW winds dominate and bring in moisture and clouds.
Mumbai gets warm and stuffy, and partly cloudy, last 3/4days of 2012,and we may even see the night temperature rising to 20/21c at Scruz. Unstable atmosphere on the 29/30/21st for Mumbai.

Pune gets partly cloudy with some rain around the 30/31st and nights rising to 15c from the morning of 29th.  Maybe a drizzly New Years Eve !

D-5 is scheduled to move away from the subcontinent by Friday evening. Decrease in fog and rise in day temperatures from Friday for the plains of Punjab and Haryana.
patchy fog in Delhi NCR next 2 days. however, I see no major fall in night temperatures for Delhi NCR in the rear of the WD. Night minimum temperatures will be around 6/7c on Friday and Saturday morning.
From  Saturday, south winds will bring the days upto the 23c  and nights from Sunday morning  
will be around 10/11c  till New Year.

Kolkata recorded a low of 10c on Thursday. The lowest in last few years, though far from the records low.  Northerly winds continue in Kolkata till 30th, that is 2 more days. we see a bit easing of temperatures from 30th, as NW winds dominate.

As estimated, Surat wil see a slight fall in temperatures next few days. days will be dropping by a couple of degrees.
However some clouding around 31st will spoil the good weather.

Plains  of Nepal were cold, with Birendranagar recording a low of 2c and Khatmandu continued to shiver at 1.5c on Thursday morning...with continuing of near zero temperatures next 3 days.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Northern Cold

Much of the Northern plains of India have had extremely cold days on 25th of this month.
Thickly covered with fog, there was a total absence of sunlight
.A high pressure zone has settled over the region in the upper levels. By Thursday, the clock wise winds (high pressure in upper region) will turn anti clockwise (low in the upper air)

The cold days on 25th.

Kurukshetra 9.2c (Incidently, even Chamba was 9.2c in the day on 25th)
Karnal 9.5c (-12). the minimum was 8c.
Aligarh 10.8c (-10)
ambala 11c (-10),
Chandigarh 11.1c (-10)
Patiala 12c (-8)
Barelli 12c (-10)
Agra 13c (-10) minimum 4.6c
Palam 15.4c
Allahbad 15.5c(-9) minimum 4.9c
Gaya 13.9c (-10)

the lowest night temperature reached 1c at Narnaul.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

The WD as a trough and showing good clouding has been located South of the Caspian Sea. D-5, would now move east into Balochistan and adjoining Sindh on Wednesday,26th. the corresponding long wave radiations already indicate its penetration up to 65E.
Precipitation is likely over Balochistan and Northern Pakistan regions from Wednesday. heavy rain and snow likely in the regional hills east of Islamabd.
Current low temperatures in Islamabad is 1.5c and /Sibbi is at 0c and was at -1c on the 24 th.These lows will rise with the advent of d-5tomorrow.

the fog will decrease considerably from Wednesday morning in Northern India. On Wednesday morning, the intensity will decrease, and most regions will be in the >200 metres  range. 
Foggy days will decrease from Wednesday, and may be restricted to late night and early morning hours only. 
Delhi NCR will see lesser fog from Wednesday morning, though not completely out, but getting clearer from Thursday. Partly cloudy for Delhi NCR from Thursday and rise in night temperatures.
No rainfall expected, but high clouds on Thursday.

Precipitation from D-5 is expected in Kashmir. Snow likely on Thursday and Friday in resorts of Kashmir and HP.
Punjab,Haryana will be cloudy on Wednesday thru Friday.

An UAC from an easterly wave moves into TN and thence into S.I. Karnataka on 27and then into Douth Karnataka on 28th.
Rains of moderate itensity likely in TN and S.Karnatak and Bangalore on Thursday 27th and Friday28th.

As the system at upper level moves North., upper winds from SW direction rush towards it.
rainfall possible in NorthInterior Karnataka on 28th and 29 th,
Rainfall of light itensity, and clouding, moves into Southern Mah regions of Solapur and South Marathwada and Goa on 29th and 30 th.

Pune will be cloudy and warm from 27th till New Year. Slight unstable weather on 29th and 30th. rain possible on 30th.

Mumbai will be warm and around 33c, except for a two day relief on 26th and27th, when the night temperature may drop to 16c at Scruz. Not much of a relief though.
But, warm cloudy weather returns to make New Year's Eve stuffy and warm.

Surat, on the other hand, sees some cooling, slight, from the 28th, as the post D-5winds turn Northerly for the city.

Kathmandu, will remain cold and take advantage of the passing WDs without precipitation a. Range will be between 18 and 1c.


Dubai Christmas morning

Dubai today morning

Dubai on Christmas day.

Dubai on Christmas morning

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Foggy conditions prevail over UP and adjoining Bihar and Northern Bengal.
Due to this, the days remained much below normal in the UP plains, and Bihar. Purnea in Bihar saw a high of 14.8 c on Friday.
Lucknow saw high of 17c and Bareilly 15c.
The cold wave spread to the east from Sindh as explained earlier. Mount Abu was 2c and Amritsar was 2.4 c on Saturday morning.
Sibbi in Balochistan was at 1.5c.

Fog is likely to spread and cover Delhi NCR from Sunday evening. expected forecast for fog in Delhi was put up last week itself in Vagaries.
The NW winds in Delhi will slow down from Sunday, and due to fog, the day will drop by 2c to around 20c on Sunday and Monday.
Due to the weak approaching WD, the low in Delhi may rise by 3/4c from Monday. But the effect of the system will be restricted to Kashmir region only.
Next WD , D-5, is expected over Northern Pakistan around 27th...this system can bring rains in both Punjabs and cloudy weather in Haryana.

A ridge formed along the Konkani coast will keep the Konkan day temperatures around 34c till Monday.

Mumbai will be warm on Saturday and Sunday with the day around 33/34c, and NE winds till afternoon. Sea winds, Westerly, will commence by evening.
Monday will see a slight fall in day temperature to 31/32c, and by Tuesday, East winds will dominate to bring the day again to 33/34c in Mumbai City.
Afetr Wednesday the winds remain SE.

Pune continues with SE winds, and the days remain around 31c next few days. Night lows will be around 11c next few days.

Surat sees a fall of 2/3 c in the day temperatures from Monday. Vagaries maintains the forecast put up earlier.Winds turn NE from the week end SE fro Monday.

Kolkata sees a further fall in night temperatures to around 11c next two nights.North winds will dominate and keep the day cold at 24c.

Easterly wave predicted is on schedule for Southern India, with the Southern tip of the peninsula getting rains. Heavy rains for Sri Lanka.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

There is very little rainfall activity in store for the next 5 days in the Sub_continent, 20th -26th December:
Prominent , among the meager action will be 

1. An easterly wave, weak, and with an UAC embedded in ti moves across Sri Lanka, Westwards from the 21st December to 24th December. Precipitation from the wave will graze through the Southern TN regions. Heavy rains in Sri Lanka from 22nd for a couple of days.
A few showers for Chennai in this period.
2. A weak WD crosses through Northern Pakistan (extreme North) and Kashmir on the 24th.

Thursday, 20th will be warm as it currently is, at 33/34c, and the night around 18c (Scruz).
Friday 21st/Sat 22nd/Sun 23rd: With a change in winds, to the SE direction , and West in the evening, the days will drop to about 31c and the nights hovering around 18c for Scruz.

Thursday 20th/Friday 21st: Continuing with the pleasant day scenario, with the max around 28c and nights at 10c.
Saturday 22nd/Sunday 23rd: Days may warm up to 30/31c again and nights will be pleasantly around 11c. High clouds appear on Sunday/Monday.

Delhi NCR:
The NW winds will blow till Sunday, 23rd. Days will be around 22c till Sunday. Nights will be around 9/10c till Sunday. Possibility of below 9c on Thursday/Friday.
After Sunday, the day NW winds slow down, and fog possible on 24th morning. 
Day temperatures show a slight rise from Monday by 2c. Fall in night temperatures by 2c on Monday/Tuesday. No rains expected.

Surat: Current NE winds, keeping the days around 33/34c, will ease off from Monday, and the day temperature may see a fall of 2/3c from Monday.

Kolkata: No rains and NW winds keep the day around 26 -16c. Till Sunday. Monday sees stiff winds from the North and days will drop to 23c. 

Current cold in Sindh will move into Raj and adjoining NW India on Thursday and Friday morning. 

Nepal will be dry and cold. Kathmandu will be dry, with day -night range between 17c and 4c.

Balochistan and Sindh regions are in the grip of a cold wave, with lowest at Sibbi, 0c. Karachi is at a low of 14.5c and Hyderabad (SIndh)13c.
Slight clouding seen on Monday, followed by a foggy morning.

Will be going to Dubai, and moving out for a 2/3 short birding trips around the gulf/creek and region's deserts. Hence, interaction on fb and blogs will be irregular and interrupted.  Will be back to base on the 1st of January, night. 

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Hottest in India on Tuesday 18th December, was at Karwar  37c. Panjim was 35.2c and Surat was 35.0c...Ratnagiri 34.7c .

Easterly Wave Pushing up Night temperatures in South and Central Peninsula Regions...

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Heavy snow blankets Iranian cities...See International Page and Pic

On Sunday morning, Gulmarg and Leh were at -9c. 
In the Northern plains, it was  7.7ºC at Fatehgarh (Uttar Pradesh). 
Maharashtra's lowest was at Ahmednager at 12c.
In the South, Dharwad saw 10.6c.

The lowest temperature in India Saturday  morning was at Chushul  -24c. 

Expected West Coast warm was forecasted, but not wanted !
Sunday's Highest in India was at Karwar at 36.2c.
The west coast has started to warm up as put in vagaries on Thursday. 
On sunday, 16th, Goa notched up   35.3c,  Honavar  35.0c,  Ratnagiri  34.8c,  Surat  34.6c, and Mumbai Colaba 33.2c, Scruz 33.0c. 
Pune was better at 30.2c...inland regions will remain around 29/30 next 2 days.

On Saturday, 15th, the Northern Hill States of India got some precipitation,, and very small amounts of rainfall, less than 0.4 mms in some isolated pockets of Punjab and North Haryana.

Kalpa in Kinnaur district, which recorded 12 mms of snow, saw a low of -3.6c, while it was - 0.8c in Manali, also wrapped in thick white blanket, and 5.2c in Dharamsala. 
Salooni in Chamba district experienced seven centimetres of snow till Saturday morning. 
Shimla, Kufri and Narkanda and Dalhousie in Chamba district still have good snow cover.

In  Uttarakhand there was moderate to heavy snowfall in the higher reaches and widespread rainfall in the plains of the State. Prominent hill stations like Mussoorie, Ranikhet, Dhanaulti and Nainital also experienced moderate snowfall, on Friday and Saturday.

In Pakistan, the Northern regions got good precipitation on Saturday, the lower sindh region got light rains . 
Islamabad saw 6 mms and Murree hillstation 13 mms.
Sunday, Karachi had a high of 25c and Hyderabad (Sindh) saw 19c in the day.

A low  is situated in the NW Arabian Sea and adjoining Balochistan coast. That is D-4, which will move NW along the Pakistan /Afghan border bringing good precipitation.

Precipitation will move NW along Pak/Afghan border and in Balochistan on Monday. Precipitaion, moderate , continues on Monday in NW Pakistan and Northern Indian states of Kashmir and HP. 
Sharp decrease in precipitation from Tuesday.

Monday: some clouds with warm day. High will be 34/35c. Lows around 19c (Scruz).
Tuesday: Again warm at 34c...SE winds dominate.

Pune: Next 2/3 days will be around 29/30c in the day, but don't see a major fall in night temperatures.

Surat will remain partly cloudy, high clouds, and East winds keeping the day around 33c next 2/3 days.

Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Delhi NCR will be dry and windy. Stiff NW winds will keep the day around 23c.

And the Desert rains arrive:  Pics of Rain Clouds over Dubai as of Sunday, 16th December  Evening 7.10pm..sent by Priya...on Inter Active Page of this blog.
Ras-AL- Khaimah gets 5 mms..

Saturday, December 15, 2012

The expected patch of clouding over the Gulf of Oman, developed. But instead of remaining in the region, suddenly moved west, in a fast momentum, and from afternoon (Saturday) moved West over Lower Sindh and Karachi. 
Karachi became un-expectedly overcast, had light drizzles in the evening (Saturday), keeping the day very cool at 23c. 
Currently it has cooled down to 20c at 7.30 pm.....
Seems, Hyderabad Sindh had a cool day at 18c, with cloud cover....

Meanwhile, some precipitation in the Northern hills continued on Saturday.

ScienceCasts: Why the World Didn't End Yesterday

Specially for the Believers...or non-believers...or whatever....a short informative video...

December Entries for Contest Close on 15th December, 12 mid night...corrections or entries may please be done before that...

Friday, December 14, 2012

Weekend will be basically dry in the India and Pakistan. Only the extreme North and Western Pakistan get some precipitation.

Saturday, 15th,  Sunday, 16th, Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th:

Saturday night will see rains picking up in the middle east. Dubai and Muscat get showers from Saturday night thru Sunday. 
Sunday we see the rains moving NE, with the Ras-Al-Khaimah region getting the heavy showers. Rain lingers on in the Gulf of Oman till Monday.

Sunday/Monday, the Afghanistan/Pakistan border regions receive precipitation. 

Meanwhile, the Northern Pakistan and Indian states of Kashmir and HP continue with rain/snow in isolated places on Sat/Sun. Intensity showing a slight increase on Monday,17th. 

Almost dry on Tuesday.

The Southern most tip if India, say regions South of Madurai, get some week end showers.

Days will be around 23c in the NCR this weekend, and nights at 9/10c. Clouds clearing off from Saturday evening.
Strong NW winds commence in the Northern plains (and Delhi) from Monday, showing a fall in day temperatures by 2/3c, to 20/21c. 

Long Term: The North will get a weak WD on Monday, 17th, and another before the month end...probably weak also.
A low is expected off Sri lanka around 24th, and may move up NW towards Chennai

Mumbai City Forecast for the weekend:

Warmer days in store for this weekend.
Saturday: Morning will be cool, with the reading showing 16c at Scruz and 20c at Colaba (Saturday morning). Day will be around 29/30c.

Sunday: Warmer day, with East winds, the day temperature will rise to 32c, and nights will be around 18c (Scruz) and 21c at Colaba.

Monday : Warmer day again, with the day temperatures rising to around a warm 34/35c. High cirrus clouds across the sky.

New Page added on Vagaries Extreme Blog.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Guys: Just made and posted a new (incomplete ) page on our new Extremes blog..its on cold waves...its not complete as many more records and events are still pending for posting..slowly and steadily...:)

See Micro Weather "demonstration" Pic on Current Weather Page..

And, now cloudings over Western Raj and Kutch. Cities in Pak Punjab and Balochistan received between 20-50 mms rainfall. 
Lahore and Faisalabad chilled at 12c and Islamabad is raining at 10c.
Amritsar absolutely cold with rains since afternoon, and now evening temperature at 13c ( 7.00 pm)..
D-3 moving East into Punjab, Kashmir and HP on schedule...

Karachi got a light thunderstorm early Thursday morning...currently ,at 9.00 am it is cloudy and drizzling. vagaries had forecasted "light showers" for Karachi from Wednesday evening into Thursday....Tyrone, latest report awaited
D-3 precipitated good snowfall in Balochistan on Wednesday, with Quetta receiving 12 mms till morning. Islamabed too had light rains.
On schedule for Thursday's Forecast, and the Islamabad- Lahore belt is also under heavy clouding now. Upper regions have reported good snowfall, and Multan and Mianwali recieved showers. Sukkur is cloudy...

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Only 4 days remaining for December Entries...please fill in your contest entries before 15th December...
Are Venus’ Volcanoes Still Active?...See Space News Page...

D-2, now over the Northern Indian region is moving away eastwards. The anti cyclone over central India has moved SE , and by tomorrow would be over the AP coastline.

Wednesday 12th: 
It is expected that major precipitation ( from D-2) in the Punjab, Haryana and West UP region will cease from Tuesday night, and mild snow/rain continues in HP, Kashmir and Western Utteranchal and Western Nepal till Thursday. 
The Southern gangetic W.Bengal region, Orissa and adjoining Jharkahnd continues to get rain or thundershowers in isolated pockets. 
On Wednesday, Kolkata can expect the rains/thundershower in some parts of city, a hit and miss chance, to continue till Thursday. High temperatures as far as night temperatures are concerned. 

D-3, the next in line, is seen on Tuesday as a trough South of the Caspian Sea. 
The WD, as it moves eastwards, will host an induced low over the Balochistan/upper Sindh region on Wednesday. 
As it approaches the Pakistan region, Wednesday sees precipitation in Balochistan and upper Sindh. Northern Pakistan gets snow on Wednesday.
Karachi will also get cloudy weather and light showers from Wednesday evening into Thursday. 

Thursday 13th: Heavier rains, with some heavy showers in the Islamabad-Lahore belt. 
Rains spreading to India in Kashmir, HP, Punjab and N. Haryana. Snow bountiful in Kashmir and HP. along the SW line, some light rains expected in Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch. 
Western Nepal gets a dose of snow/rains.
D-3 may not have effect on Delhi NCR in precipitations. Only cloudy weather.

Friday 14th: Heavy precipitation in the hill states. Western Nepal too gets a continuation of snow/rains.

Mumbai: Wed/Thursday/Friday will have partly cloudy nights with low clouds. Nights will be dropping by 2c to around 15/16c(Scruz) and days around 28/29c.

Pune: Clear with fall in night temperatures. Nights will be around 10c. next 2 nights and could drop to 9c on Thursday.

Thursday, December 06, 2012

Main Concentration on the North:

D-1 is moving across the Pakistan Sindh region and Northern areas. Most of the Balochistan and Sindh region are cloudy, with the trough bringing in moisture from the SW. No substantial rain reports are in yet.
D-1 will normally move NE now, and on Friday, bring rain/snow to Northern Pakistan, moderate rains to Upper Sindh and Pak Punjab. Cloudy weather for rest of Sindh and Karachi on Friday, with the city seeing rise in night temperatures.

D-1 will effect the Indian regions from Saturday. Initially with rain/snow in Kashmir and HP. Saturday/Sunday will be cloudy, with light rain in Punjab and parts of Haryana.

Delhi NCR will be partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday, with rise in night temperatures to 10c/11c.  NCR starts clearing from Sunday evening. Night temperatures will drop from Monday morning.
We cannot expect extreme cold yet, as back to back we may have D-2 coming.
D-1 has no effect in Nepal.

Another WD, D-2, which will arrive in Balochistan on the 12th, will be stronger, and should have its effect in precipitation from Karachi to Northern regions of Pakistan. Moving into India from the 13th/14th, will have good effect in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR. 

Currently, Western coast off shore trough, is pushing in some high clouding into Mah, which on inter acting with a warm front, is likely to bring light rains to Madhya Mah (Pune) and some pockets in N.Konkan and adjoining Gujarat coast and parts of Saurashtra. Clouds will clear off by Sunday. 

Nagpur and adjoining Vid gets cloudy on Monday 10th with moderate rains. Rains move NE into Chattisgarh and into Kolkata by Monday evening or by Tuesday 11th. Kolkata can get some rains on Monday evening or Tuesday.

Mumbai City: Cloudy with high clouds and warm and stuffy till Saturday night. Clouds clear by Sunday, and day temperatures leave the mid 30s range and return to 30/31c level from Sunday. Night temperatures drop from Sunday night. 
Currently at 22/23c, will be back to 19/21c by Monday morning.

Pune sees cloudy weather till Sunday, and fall in night temperatures by 6c, from the current 18c levels by Monday morning. Crisp cold mornings next week.

Detailed publications will not be put up till Monday evening, as author is travelling. Brief informations will be posted. 

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Mumbai will be partly cloudy on Wednesday and Thursday. Warm day again..Winter takes back seat for the next few days.
Light rains possible in vicinity on Thursday.

Pune gets cloudy weather and light rains on Thursday..

Nagpur get spell of rain on Monday 10th.

Possibility of some rain for Kolkata on Tuesday, 11th December..
Karachi may see light rains on Mon or Tuesday..chances 50%..
of-course more later..
Trough thru South India shown below on Sat image, is moving Westwards. Currently over the Interiors of Karnataka and Kerala, just inland off the coastline. This trough has an UAC now embedded in it in the Southern most regions. 

Trough expected to shift West, with clouding spreading Northwards from Interior Karnataka. 

A warm front is pushing westwards, creating alto-cumulus and stratus clouds along the trough line.

This development could fall in line with the last forecast put up for Mon/Tue/Wed....system shifting into the Arabian Sea !

New Delhi Sjing low was 6.5c, Palam was 7.4c and lowest in NCR Hindon was 4.9c.

Monday, December 03, 2012

TOP 50 DISTRICTS POST MONSoON RAINFALL...compiled by GSB..on Stats Analysis Page..

BB-12. the short lived system, has weakened, and on Monday afternoon, is  at 1007 mb, NE off Sri Lanka.

The location has been drawn and imposed on the IMD Sat image, with the trough running through the Southern Peninsula also shown.

NW  quadrant shows clouding and the winds are still at around 20 knts. Due to this, scattered showers along TN coast, with a few heavy in pockets, by Monday evening. 
The reflectivity image based on the dbZ, shows a sharp decline by Monday evening.  

The system will merge into the trough. While moving West, some precipitation in the Southern tip of India region and S.I. Karnataka.

Sunday, December 02, 2012

1. Cold still persists in Pakistan plains, with the lowest in Sibbi at -0.5c. 
Islamabad dropped to 2.5c, Hyderabad was 11.5c and Karachi was 13.5c. (All on expected lines).The current temperatures in Sindh will persist for another 24 hrs, and rise by 1/2c from Tuesday. 

NW and Northern Indian plains did experiance a drop in night temperatures with Sunday morning showing fall by about 2/3 c in many places. 
The lowest expected by vagaries in Rajasthan was 3/4c, and Churu in Rajasthan saw the lowest at 3.9c. Vagaries had expected Delhi to touch around 8c, it was 7.8c, and Punjab as expected hovered around 6/7c.

For Northern Indian plains, the current level of minimum temperatures will sustain till Tuesday morning. With dry weather and slight rise of 1/2c in night temperatures on Wednesday.

2. On Sunday evening, BB-12,  the Bay Low is located at 11N and 85E, with pressure at 1006 mb. Core winds are less than 20 knts, but outer NE winds along North TN coast likely to be 25 knts bt Monday.
System will track West, and maybe deepen to 1004 mb, before crossing North TN coast on Monday evening.
Chennai gets its expected showers from Monday thru Tuesday. Rain slips into Bangalore from Monday evening.

Around 4th/5th December, the pulse enters the Arabian Sea off Kerala. It will sustain as a low at around 1006 mb off Kerala. System will move a bit North upto South Karnatak/Kerala coast on the 5th and dissolve. 

3. Forecast for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th/Wednesday 5th:

Mumbai City: Winds change to a "warm " N/NE from Monday. This will bring about a rise in the day temperatures , which could be around 33c on Monday and 34/35c on Tuesday. The humidity level can drop to 40%, making it slightly "comfortable" (if we can say so). Nights will be around 19c on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday in Scruz and 21/22c at Colaba.

Outer townships too will see warmer days Monday thru Wednesday.

Pune will be around 30/31c on Mon/Tuesday/Wednesday, with the night temperature around 12c first 2 nights and rising to 14c on Wednesday morning. Slightly cloudy from Tuesday.

Monday could see some light rain (drizzles) in coastal Gangetic Bengal.
Kolkata will be partly cloudy with high clouds,  but Tuesday and Wednesday will be clear. Night temperatures around 16/17c for Kolkata next 3 nights.

Kathmandu is around 3.5/4.0c as the minimum temperature. With no effective system around, the weather will remain around the 19-4 range next 3 days.

  21st  July afternoon post Comparative rain till 21st morning: Panji 2525 mms ( 100 ") and Ratnagiri 2572 mms ( 102") cross 100&q...