Wednesday, April 25, 2012

See Inter Active Page for Some Pics from California...






Weather  Forecast  Summary  for  the  week:  Sunday 29th april - 6th May.

Sunday 29th thru Tuesday 1st May, moderate* rains in HP and Utteranchal from the "last leg" of A-5, which moves away by Tuesday into Weastern most Nepal. 
West Nepal gets some precipitation too on Sunday thru Tuesday. 

Decrease in rains in North India from Tuesday, 1st May. Substantial rise in 
Heat from Thursday, 3rd May. Heat regions will cover Haryana, Delhi, West UP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Vidarbha, North and Coastal AP. Friday, 4th and Saturday 5th will see temperatures rise to 3-5c above normal. 

Some light* rains in Chennai on Sunday and Monday, passing showers maybe, then decreased minimal rainfall in the South till Saturday, 4th May. Some light rains on Friday thru Sunday, 6th May in Kerala and interior TN.

Medium* rains in Bangladesh and Meghalaya on Mon thru Wednesday, adjoining W.Bengal to receive medium rains with Kolkata getting showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.



* See Rainfall nomenclature explanation put up on Current Weather Page.




MW-3


Continuing from MW-2: 


Refer to this Vagaries' Map and Read the Explanation below:






1. Bay Low:  Indicator: +ve
"Bay of Bengal" low pressure parameter is no longer a worrying factor. Normally, the Bay hosts a pre-Monsoon low anytime after 15th. April. Like I mentioned in the previous MW, in 2010 we had a cyclone in the Bay by the third week, and in 2009 a cyclone crossed the Bay on 12th April.
We have had a B-1 now !


As on today, this region still maintains a good prospect to the formation of another quick low. The winds indicate a weak low trying to establish itself. 
Also +ve sign of a quick formation is that the SST is conducive. Map shows around 31c near the Andaman Islands. Ideal temperature for quick low formation.
A pulse from the far east is possible in the next 15 days. 


A heat spell in the Phillipines could create the necassary conditions for a depression or a TS there. A report from the "Manilla Bulletin", a leading Newspaper,: "This month, PAGASA said the expected ranges of temperature in the country are: 22°C to 36°C in the lowlands of Luzon, 16°C to 26°C in the mountainous areas of Luzon, 23°C to 34°C for Visayas, 22°C to 34°C in the lowlands of Mindanao, and 18°C to 32°C in the mountains of Mindanao.The highest recorded temperature in Metro Manila so far this year is 35.9 degrees Celsius, and the highest in the country is 38.4 degrees Celsius registered at Clark in Subic, Pampanga.
As temperatures continue to soar, the Quezon City Health Department (QCHD) advised residents to take precautions against most common dry-season diseases and heat-related illnesses".


The region below the equator in the Bay sector continues to be favourable with SE winds tending to bend SW South of the Bay in the 95E region.  
Remember, the normal date for SWM to hit the South Andaman Sea is 15th. May.




2. Sub-Continent Seasonal Low: Indicator: --ve.


The line of wind dis-continuity should shift back to its normal postion, in the centre of the Southern Peninsula region. 
More out breaks of pre- monsoon thundershowers are expected normally in the southern states and South Maharashtra. We are having these now in the South thanks to the B-1 effect. Though the showers in the South are heavier than normal, and excessive. But, a break in the pre-monsoon thundershowers is common, and will allow the days to get hotter.


An exception this year is the Vidharbha region. the temperatures are managing around 42/43c. Normally Vidarbha is a hotbed ! 45-47c is a "kid's playground" for the region in May. But, the minimums in the region are still wanting of the 30s.
Nights in 2010 were terrible at this time. See in this link, April 13th and April 20th.2010 
And compare and contrast this with the all India lows this year.






The sesonal low in the Thar region is also lagging behind, thanks to the absence of intense heat waves, and pushing WDs in the lower plains of NW sub continent. 
The days, have not yet started to rise. Trends of rising temperatures are not yet satisfactory in Gujarat and NW India and adjoining regions of Sindh across the border. 
We have yet to see a 45c !


True, the entire sub-continent region has to suffer a heat wave, but the gains are much more. 
The pressure around the Thar desert region is now 1002mb (994mb required by June begining). There is no central core formed as yet. And, as per the required scheduled development, a proper gradiant is behind schedule in the making. 




3. Cross Equatorial Winds : Indicator: neutral.


The cross equatorial wind flow, has just about picked up in the Southern Hemisphere. Winds, have not yet achieved the required speeds, but just about started hitting the East African coast. Proper re-curving as SW winds, off the Kenyan coast, is yet to occur. However, Cross winds in the Eastern Sector (Bay) are getting strong, and are re-curving.


Mascarene High pressure region, the back-bone of our Summer Monsoon, is also slow to form down in the Southern Hemisphere, off the Madagascar Island, and in the mid South Indian ocean. 


Amidst this, no cyclones are likely to form off Australia this season.  If no low pressure forms there till end of April, the ITCZ can start moving North. And with low pressure trough riding a weak MJO wave, and ITCZ moving North, the "High" in the Southern Indian Ocean has a fair chance of getting stronger and anchoring well.
As the ITCZ tracks north, associated MJO waves can "ride" alongwith. Meaning, after the shift, more MJO waves in the Northern Hemosphere (read Bay regions).


The positive news from Australian Weather Bureau; "This greatly reduces the chances for northern Australia to experience any more monsoonal activity this season. The next significant burst of monsoon activity is unlikely until the 2012-13 wet season commences."


4. ENSO: Indicator: Same as Last MW.


ENSO is neutral, is almost the same as reprted in MW 2. Slight increased warming is seen in the region.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 14th April was -7.4 (Last year at this time it was +26.5). The monthly SOI for March was +2.9. 


If, by any chance, there is a further increase in SST in May/June, it would mean less than normal rains in June/July. 


5. 200 hpa Jet Streams: Indicator: -ve.


200 hpa Jet Streams are still dominating the upper half of the sub-continent. Though below the 8N line the jets have shown an Easterly curve, it has to re curve, and form a "low" in Central India by end April, to be on schedule. The prevailing westerly jets in the North are encouraging the W.D.s


Conclusion: As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in the Arabian Sea branch of the Monsoon. And, the Bay branch needs a little trigger to get going. Maybe a little less rain in the first half of June for Kerala, Karnataka (coastal) and S.Konkan? 


(If things change either way, we shall follow that on MW), but, 


Today's 
Scenario and developments show SWM Arrival date should be around: 17th May for Southern Andaman Islands, 20th for Port Blair and Andaman Main Islands, 1st June for NE states, 3rd/4th June for Kerala, 6th June for Coastal Karnataka and 11th/12th June for Mumbai. 


However, Pre Monsoon showers would start earlier as per regions. Mumbai would get its initial pre monsoon showers around 5/6th June.


Quantum of rains will be discussed from MW-4, which will be up on 2nd May.


(This Monsoon chase is my personal view, and my personal analysis and deciphering is done as per my assumptions. May defer with other forecasts). 


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Weather for the rest of this week...see Current Weather Page.
Please Note  new Nomenclature adopted by Vagaries from Today on Current Weather Page:Please Copy/Paste somewhere for easy Future (monsoon Time )Reference.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Update on B-1 is up on Current Weather page as MW-3 is coming up here...


B-1 Moved West as estimated and at 1002 mb lies just South of Madurai at 11.30 pm (IST) 24th April.
Expected to move West and bring heavy rain South of the Mangalore/Bangalore/Chennai line. Chennai effect will decrease.






Next report at 8 am (IST)

Friday, April 20, 2012



B-1 Report: 
B-1 was first mentioned mentioned only in the Vagaries' Weekly Report last Sunday.

Map/Image indicates Position as at 5.am (IST) Tuesday 24th April.


Now, this system is slowly moving towards the central areas of T.N. coast. 
As per assumption, it has strengthened to 1002mb. The W/SW winds along the Western Sri Lanka coast, and to the South of the Island is getting stronger a( +ve factor, for the SWM), and a pull towards the low, has resulted in a concentrated clouding and rainfall, visible to the W/SW of B-1. 
The inland trough in the the west, should guide its track.


Rainfall as a whole should be in tune with the  the map put up on Sunday. Good rains expected below the Mangalore/Bangalore/Chennai line.


MW-3 will be put up on Wednesday 1 pm (IST)

Other News:
A Meteoroid the Size of a Mini-van Explodes over California....See Space News Page Immediately....

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Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 22nd April to 29th April.


Last week, again, the Heat was very much restricted to the Eastern/Central parts of the Indian region. Elsewhere, the days were in the normal range, with an active A-2 bringing precipitation in the Northern and NW regions of the Sub-Continent. Interior Mah. received thundershowers mid week, and parts of N.Konkan and adjoining S.Gujarat coast too got a sprinkling of drizzles. All very much in line with the Vagaries' Weekly forwecast put up last Sunday.


An exception was the rainfall, though mild, that Saurashtra and North Gujarat region received.
Last week's accuracy: 65%.


Next Week;
Refer to Vagaries Map while reading Narration below:









This coming week, we see some "activity" in the Southern regions. A low, B-1, has formed in the SW Bay on Saturday, though weak at 1004 mb. 


It is expected to move W/NW, and cross Central T.N. coast at 1002 mb near Pondicherry, at around 11N. B-1 should cross by Tuesday, and being the first low of the season, its behavoiur needs monitoring. Shall keep posting in case there are changes.
B-1 should then merge in the trough running N/S from Bihar to S.Tamil Nadu. 
Rains, goood amounts, are expected this week especially along the T.N. coast Tuesday thru Friday.


A-3 is coming up. Barring extreme South/Eastern areas of Pakistan, rain is expected almost in all the regions. Hailstorms expected in the plains of Punjab and Upper Sindh regions of Pakistan.
The system moves into India, with the precipitation moving NE into Punjab, Haryana, H.P, Utteranchal and Kashmir. Will keep the day temperatures within control most of this week. Severe hate isexpected in the Central and Eastern regions of India.


Interior Western Mah can get thundershowers on Sunday and Monday, and clearing in the week later.


City Wise Forecast:
Delhi: Rains expected on Tuesday. The day temperatures will be in the 38/40c range, and the night could rise to 25/26c during the week.


Mumbai: Partly cloudy week. Days will be humid and the feeling will be sweaty, with the days around the 34/35c mark.
Surat would be warm too, with days touching 39/40c.
Pune. Was in the forecasted range last week, with the mild showers.  With  rains till Sunday and Monday, expect the day to rise this week to 39c by Wednesday.



Chennai: Coastal T.N will see a wet week. Heavy Rains and Thundershowers in the week in the Nilgiri hills adjoining Kerala. Chennai will receive rainfall from Monday, gradually increasing on Tuesday. Maybe to around 30 mms. Precipitation till Friday will see a milder week with the days around 34c.


Bangalore: Warm and partly cloudy initially.  Days will be around 35c till Wednesday, with not much relief at night. Precipitation expected on Wednesday thru Sunday.


Karachi will be in the 35c range, with partly cloudy skies. Humid till Wednesday, but humidity dropping from Thursday to see warmer days.
Sukkar: Some clouding till Wednesday and clear later. But as yet, we have not seen any major heat waves in sindh or Balochistan. In fact, the hot spot od Sibbi, which touches 50c in mid May, was a cool 13.7c (minimum) on Saturday. Normal heat and day temperatures in this week too.





See weather pics from Hawaii on Interactive Page...

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

See Mumbai Page Updated Thursday Morning @ 7 am
NW regions of Sub-Continent are still below the required heat. In sindh /Balochistan (Pakistan) where it is expected to heat up. In India , highest was 44c at Chandrapur, again in central India (as forecasted in Vagaries) , while across the border  we still see the highest at 38c at Chor and Badin on Wednesday. Sukkur was a mild 34c.
And, now A-3 is moving in ! expecting light rains in Karachi Thursday/Friday due to the combined effect of W.D. and trough.

Monsoon Watch - 2


Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1. 


1. Seasonal Low: For this parameter, the -ve factor from the previous MW (last week) discussion is maintained, as the average day/night temperatures in the Northern/Central Sub-Continent areas remain in near normal/below normal range.
IMD map of day and night temperature of the 17th anomaly explains this. 







A comparison with previous years shows the difference this year. In 2010, the first 45c was touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010,  Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c,  Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 
But, 2011 was similar to this year. This year also, we are yet to reach 45c anywhere in the Sub-Continent, as was in 2011. Into the 3rd. week of April now, and the heat wave is missing.


As on 17th. April, the lowest pressure, in the Thar Desert region is at 1002 mb. (though last year was 1006 mb, 2010 was at 1002 mb this time) and this "low" region is restricted to a small area. As mentioned, it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradiant is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.


The quick formation of an optimum Seasonal Low due to persistent A-2 (mentioned in the Vagaries' weekly forecast), and absence of heat wave in Central and Northern regions of the Sub-Continent, continues to be un-favourable. 


2. The ENSO is neutral in the Pacific Ocean, with a further warming of the SST in the past 2 weeks. On an average, it is warmer by about 0.1c over the last 15 days. 
The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, but remains within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. The latest (8 April) 30-day SOI value is −3.8, while end of March was +2.8.




3. Last week, the Cross Equatorial Winds,( Monsoon winds), which originate from the Southern Indian Ocean as SE winds, and cross the equator to become south -west, were weak, and not developed . 


Let me explain, that the winds before  crossing the equator break into 2 branches. 1) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and 2) moving into the Bay of Bengal. 


Today, we find, the winds south of the equator better organised for the Bay branch, in the region south of the Andaman Sea. SW Currents are seen off the Sunmatra coast. And that is exactly where the start should be for the SWM to arrive at the Andamans.


The Arabian Sea branch is still struggling to get organised. Here,  wind speed off the Kenyan coast has maintained the SE flow. But should re-organise fast.


The Mascarene high pressure zones in the South Indian Ocean, at 1030 mb, between Madagascar and Australia, have been observed, and the "Power House" of the Monsoon winds is slightly behind schedule,for this time of the season.


4. Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. Optimum (warm) temperatures will hasten and create more clouds, and help in faster forming of the lows from the Bay. 
This parameter, is not very "normal" and tilting towards  "un-favourable" as on date.









I have put up the SST of this year and of last year as on date. Comparison shows it is slightly "un-favourable " around the equator, where the winds turn for the Arabian Sea.


But the pre Monsoon Low in the Bay is still elusive. As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th. of April. But as on today, a high pressure region prevails over the Bay.


5. To bring the existing SE winds above the equator, the ITCZ should move northwards. Around 1st. of May, this should cross the equator.  The ITCZ, is in its "normal" position, as of now, at 5S. 


So, overall, we can summerise as:
Parameter:1): -ve. 2): Normal.  3) Normal  4) -ve. 5) Normal.


Most parameters are "Normal" as of today. In today's situation, Monsoon arrival in Kerala could be on normal dates in Kerala and the Bay Islands, and the NE states. 


But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 


No model can commit from today when the Monsoon can arrive. Things get clearer by last week of April. Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 


Next MW up on 25th. April. Quantum will be discussed in the first MW of May.


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See Pictures from the Redwood Forest, California on Inter active Page.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

see interactive page for pics sent by readers


Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 16th April to 22nd April.


Last week, the Heat was very much restricted to the Eastern/Central parts of the Indian region. Elsewhere, the days were in the normal range, with an active A-1 bringing precipitation in the Northern and NW regions of the Sub-Continent. Gulmarg and Sonmarg even had snow on Saturday (14th). All very much in line with the Vagaries' Weekly forwecast put up last Sunday.
Accuracy of last week's forecast 85%.


Next Week;
Refer to Vagaries Map above while reading Narration below:




This coming week, we some "activity". A-2 is coming up. On Wednesday, A-2 will be covering almost 80% of Pakistan, from the North down to the Sindh coast in the South. Barring extreme South/Eastern areas of Pakistan, rain is expected almost in all the regions. Hailstorms expected in the plains of Punjab and Upper Sindh regions of Pakistan.


Wednesday/Thursday, the system moves into India, with the precipitation moving NE into Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, H.P, Utteranchal and Kashmir. Will keep the day temperatures within control most of this week. Again, hail is expected in the plains of NW India.


An embedded Vortex forms over Western Mah. on Thursday, bringing rains and thunder in the region. Thursday and Friday could see thundershowers in the Western region and North Konkan (including Mumbai).
No low or system expected in Bay.


City Wise Forecast:


Delhi: 
 Tuesday 17th and Wednesday 18th: Rain Expected.
Effect of the system ( A-2) will keep the day temperatures within the 34/35c mark, and the occasional night could fall to 20c during the week.


Mumbai
Mon/Tues/Wed: Partly cloudy week,  






Thursday,19th/Friday 20th. Occasional lightning with a few rumbles of thunder.






Pune. Was in the forecasted range. week, with the low constantly at 18/19c (as forecasted last week). 
Mon/Tues/Wednesday: Expect the day to rise this week to 39c,






Thursday and Friday: Rain, bringing down the temperatures by 2/3c.


Surat could be on the outer limit of the vortex, and possibly get some drizzles on Friday.




Bangalore: Warm and partly cloudy. Some precipitation expected on Wednesday. Days will be around 35c, with not much relief at night.
Chennai: Coastal T.N remaing relatively dry. Seeing some rains in the week in the Nilgiri hills adjoining Kerala.


Karachi will be in the 35c range, with cloudy skies. Light rains expected on Wednesday. Could see a comfortable day subsequently after the light rains.
Sukkar: cloudy with light rains, moderate in some areas of Northern Sindh, on Wednesday/Thursday. Clearing next day to a drop in night temperatures on Friday morning.
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Pradeep has worked hard, and compiled a list of the wettest places in terms of annual rainfall in each state of India. Pradeep 's presentation is very well made. He personally wants Vagaries' to put up the list for its readers. The compilation can be viewed here on Pradeep's Blog.



Thursday, April 12, 2012

I would say its a cold wave in Kashmir. What with the day temperatures down 10c below normal in Srinagar and Qazigund, both at being 10c yesterday (Friday). Gulmarg saw a high of 4c, 6c below normal yesterday, and the low was -2.3c. Kupwara saw a high of 12.5c, 8c below normal. Banihal too was 6c below normal in the day at 14.7c.

49 former NASA scientists and astronauts sent a letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden last week..it reads..see Global Warming  Hysteria Page.




Mumbai sunset on Thursday Evening sent by Sheetal Birla


Monday, April 09, 2012



While IMD still defers its forecast, Another Independant Monsoon forecast from my friend Rajan here on his blog. Rajan is a very experienced meteorologist.
IMD should have taken up this job in right earnest much earlier. Vagaries had mentioned this earlier here.


Monsoon Watch - 1


These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. 
To understand the subsequent articles in this series, I suggest this initial article (MW-1) should be properly understood.
The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries.




The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting for its share of 2012 monsoon rains !


This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon. Initially, in the firsr few articles, this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon, and analysing its progress for calculating and estimating the arrival date. This is very important, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. 
The SWM has the  weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.
We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength in this article. 


There are 2 parts to this article:
A)-This is the Ideal Conditions (Vagaries' Map) During SWM Onset in Early June. and 
B)below indiactes a description of the situation today (10th April).


A)- Very very briefly, let  us first understand, that the "power house" of our SWM is actually based far away in the southern Hemisphere. The main "generating factory" is the Mascarene Highs, SE of the Madagascar coast. The SWM is born down South, 4000 kms from the Indian Mainland !



SWM onset Conditions of June Map Prepared by Vagaries




The proper formation of these high regions,(1028 mb at least) will boost and create proper SE winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn SW in the Northern Hemisphere. 
And the formation of the "Tibetan High" is another factor. An anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau. During the formation stages, there will be thunderstorm activity in the SE parts of Tibet during the months of April and May.


To generate a powerfull SW wind, the cross equatorial flow must be strong and gusty. SW winds (ultimately upto 600 mb levels) then are capable of riding on the warmer Arabian Sea waters and bring cloud masses towards the West Coast of India. In the Bay, similar SW winds are generated, but from SE winds below the equator, just below Sri Lanka.
And to attract the SW winds, again, we need a good proper "seasonal low" to develop in the Sub-Continent. This seasonal low, normally should start forming around Barmer, Rajasthan, by mid April, and at its peak stretch upto Arabia. Seasonal low at its peak, in June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008 mb. This enables a good gradiant to pull the SWM inland.


B)-In this initial stage, we will observe the basic root and foundation,the initial parameters and the initial seed of the monsoon.
1. Cross Equtorial Winds from Southern Hemisphere.
2. Seasonal Low over India/Pakistan.
3. ENSO Status.
4. Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay.


1. Cross Equtorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region. 
The Mascarene Highs are the main "Power House" of the South -West Monsoons. This generates the South -East winds, which after gaining strength, cross the equator and become south west. For a proper High to form in the South Indian Ocean, the cyclone season (Low pressures) should completely die down from that region.
The Mascarene Highs are not yet properly formed, and only 1 segment of 1031 mb is seen. (Map Below)









There are also signs of a Tropicsl cyclone forming in the S.Indian Ocean off the Australian Coast. ITCZ today is around 7S.


There are weak signs of initial SE winds forming, but not yet getting organised. Initial forming has commenced off the East African Coast. But the winds are Northerly above equator right down till 5S. See winds here:


As the Monsoon strikes the Andaman Sea by mid May, developing wind currents are required to be observed near the Eastern side of the Indian Ocean, this is lacking as of today. 


2. Now, this year, we have just about started the heating. The above normal heating in the NW has started from April, as March was relatively "cool" and below normal.


 Southern regions of the Sub-Continent have had some initial heating. This is not much of a plus point in the formation, or a quicker formation of one of the important pre monsoon weather requirment, the seasonal low


The seasonal low, stretch over Arabia thru India, normally starts forming in the Barmer and adjoining regions in the second week of April. Today, the MSL is around 1006 mb in the Sindh/Rajasthan region. In the "core seed"area, it 1004 mb. (The ultimate low in the core, in June when ready, should be 994mb.). Today, there is a "high" of 1006 mb covering almost the entire Indian region.


This progress is fairly ok. The Seasonal Low normally is required to start taking shape for the monsoon by the second week of April. 


3. La - Nina factor favouring SWM is over. It is now Neutral. Last SOI reading observed was +7.  


• The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. The readings for the last 2 warmer by 0.4c and warmer by 0.1c in the last week. Thus Neutral conditions prevail.


4. Another pre monsoon seasonal normal requirment is the creation of a low in the Bay by the second week of April. This is necassary to trigger off the flow and formation of lows from the bay.
Progress this year is bad, as the Bay shows no signs today. No forecast of any low as of now. (in 2009,a low formed by the 12th. of April, and later it intensified into cyclone "Bijli", 2010 had no low till 3rd week of april).


Summary for arrival Date: Parameter 1). normal,  Parameter 2). -ve,  Parameter 3). Normal.   Parameter 4). -ve.
Slightly tilted towards the negative , as of 10t April.


New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to guage and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. 
Time of arrival normally indicated after mid-April, and strength after 24th April.


Next update on 17th. April.

Saturday, April 07, 2012


Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 8th April to 15th April





1. A-1 moving into Indian Sub-Continent brings "normal" day temperatures to "Western Half" of India, and an above normal Heat Wave to the "Eastern Half". 
After appearing in N.Pakistan, A-1 is moving into Northern India on Sunday. Sunday and Monday will see precipitation from this W.D. in Kashmir, H.P, and Utteranchal. Some (moderately) heavy precipitation possible in Upper reaches of Kashmir/H.P. System moves away quickly in a NE direction, avoiding Central Nepal. 


However, moisture from the trough running thru W.Bengal, M.P. and Interior Mah into the Arabian Sea, and UAC embedded will bring rains to Eastern 
Nepal and Kathmandu from Wednesday.


Sindh and Balochistan regions of Pakistan will also benefit this week with day temperetures running in the "Normal" range.


2. Result will be a drop in day temperatures in the Upper states and Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Western U.P. in the initial days of the week till 12th April.
A fall in night temperatures, falling to slightly below normal levels likely in these states and interior Mah. (Western Regions of State).


3. A trough line, or a line of wind dis-contiunity runs during the week from W.Bengal, Chattisgarh thru Vid thru S.I.Mah into the Arabian Sea. A UAC embedded in the Eastern fringe will remain stationary alongwith the trough.


This could bring very heavy rains initially on Mon/Tues/Wed to Bangladesh and adjoining NE India and Eastern parts of W.Bengal. regions and hill of Meghalaya will get very heavy rains on Tuesday/Wednesday
'Very Gusty winds with rough seas likely On Wed/Thursday along W.Bengal and Bangladesh coastline.


Some light rainfall can be expected in North A.P. and adjoining S. Mah on Wed/Thursday along the trough line.


Heat Waves Conditions are likely to be confined to the East during the week. Heat wave, that is day temperatures above normal, will be felt on Mon/Tuesday in Gujarat and adjoining West M.P.


But from Wednesday, heat waves will be moving East from these Western regions, and all the NW states, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi will be around the normal range in the second half of the week. 
Heat Wave will then be restricted in the Vid, Chattisgarh and Orissa region. Nagpur will see rise to above normal day temperatures from Wed thru the week. The week may see highs of 42/43c in the city.


In fact, Sindh (Pakistan) may see normal to below normal day temperatures from Tuesday thru the week. 
After hitting 45c in interior Sindh /Balochistan, the highest day temperatures will drop by a few degress from Wed thru the week in the interior regions. Maybe just touching 41/42c in some cities like Turbat or Nawabshah.


Strong winds will lash the Sindh coast from the westerly direction.


Vagaries' Weekly forecast put up last week (1st to 8th april) showed point nos 1,3,4, and 5 accurate and on the spot. Point to was partly correct as the the rains extended thru interior Karnataka into interior Mah. (Not forecasted this far North). Overall accuracy was 85%.


City wise Forecast:


Delhi, staying around 37/38c last week, will remain in the 38c average in the days. In fact expecting it to be around 23/24c in the nights, which is fairly tolerable. 


Mumbai (remaing within 32c) is doing fairly well with the lows at 22c. Next week should see days around 33c and nights around 24c, still below the 25c mark. Strong N winds and West winds in the evenings will bring in increased humidity by next week. The comfort levels may fall, but the temps will be in control. 
Pune was expected to be around 18/19c in the night, was ok, but fell to 17c on Saturday. Next week the days could rise to 38c, but nights will be very comfortable around 18/19c.


Karachi was constant around 37c in the week, with Sukkur hovering around 40c in the second half of the week. This week  will be in the normal (below normal in some areas) for Sindh and Balochistan. Karachi could average out 35c in the week.


Kathmandu had rains in the second half of last week. Already gathered 39 mms for this month. Can get alternate thundershowers this week too.



Wednesday, April 04, 2012

While flying to the U.S. the aircraft took the route flying over the North Pole. From Dubai, the route was NW, and flew past the NP and then Southwards over Arctic Sea, Greenland and Canada !

En-route, I witnessed some of the most UN-believable and amazing views of the Arctic Sea, NP and Northern Greenland. Something rarely witnessed.
Am sharing some of the pics taken from the flight.

Enjoy Nature's Beauty and creativity !

These are around the North Pole. The frozen Rivers are seen in the totally frozen Artic Sea.



As we fly over the Artic Sea, we see huge chunks of frozen ice, the Sea itself.





Huge glaciers are seen flowing into the sea. These are formed as we approach land , the Northern tip of Greenland and some islands around.





The Northern Parts of Greenland have high mountain peaks, whose ridges are seen here. A river, with 2 streams joining ,and coming from a mountain are seen here. Of-course frozen ! The land temperature is estimated to be -40c .



A Sun Pillar Phenomena observed...



Rains in BanglaDesh:
Thunderstorms and heavy rain in W.Bengal and Bangladesh as estimated in Vagaries' Weekly Forecast put up last Sunday !

Tuesday, April 03, 2012


From Wednesday 4th April 2012, I will be travelling to the U.S. and will be returning to base on the 19th of May 2012. 


Will continue updating Vagaries on regular basis. The popular Monsoon Watch series will be put as usual. 
Interacting with meteorologists in the U.S. would help in my computing forecasting models more accurately and push Vagaries to another level. 


It will be difficult and improper to give detailed local forecasts for Mumbai/Maharashtra as I will not be personally previewing/observing the local weather conditions and developments in Mumbai. 


However, feedbacks from various cities will continue which help me guage the developments there.  

Monday, April 02, 2012



Satellite Image shows clouding, convection, along the trough line. Some thundershowers were reported from Kerala and adjoining Nilgiri hills in T.N. 


Compare this image, and the report below with the weekly forecast map put up yesterday.


Shiraz reports from Mahableshwar of around 7 mms of rain and a thundershower in the evening today (Monday).


Akshay reports of rain around Nagpur: "Convective rainfall was reported today around 60km South of Nagpur around Bordharan area. Trace amtount in Nagpur" ...

and sends this pic..


Delhi was 38c on Monday, and Pune too on expected lines had a warm night with the low at 20c.
Mumbai Colaba was 33c and S'Cruz 32c.


Sukkur moderates at 36c on Monday with the day cloudy. Karachi was also partly cloudy today with the day's high at 37c.



Dubai was overcast on Monday, and we have recieved these pics from there taken on Monday.