Tuesday, March 30, 2010

El-Nino Still Holding Grip on Monsoon Estimate:
Monsoon 2010 ! How is this year's Monsoon going to behave ? This unknown factor is of utmost importance today. 2009 was disastrous, (see Oct 7th. post in this link),with -23% rains, one of the lowest in Indian history. and we certainly cannot afford another scarce monsoon, leave alone a deficient one.
For guaging the initial development of the current of the ensuing monsoon, whether it will achieve the required momentum, at this stage today, we should primarily keep track on the El-Nino.
El-Nino strenght/Weakness will help us then chase and monitor the other parameters that develop subsequently in April/May.
March is the time of year when existing El-Nino events are often in their waning phase, and should either dissipate or persist for up to a maximum of two more months. This year, it seems most likely that El Niño conditions will persist at least through April 2010.

IRI forecasts-"Presently, the models and observations taken together indicate probabilities of about 85% for maintaining El Niño conditions and about 14% for dissipation to ENSO-neutral conditions for the Mar-Apr-May season in progress. Going forward, probabilities for El Niño decrease to approximately 50% by Apr-May-Jun."
Reason given by BoM:- Sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific have shown little change over the past fortnight, and hence remain at levels typical of an El Niño event. Trade winds in the tropical Pacific have remained weak, allowing the Pacific to remain warm and hence slowing the decay of the El Niño event, and the SOI has also remained at El Niño levels.
The latest approximate 30-day value of the SOI is −8. The SOI has remained steady over the past week, after increasing in value after a rapid fall during February.
When compared with two weeks ago, NINO3 has cooled by approximately 0.2°C, while NINO3.4 and NINO4 have remained similar in value.
Another important factor are the trade winds.They are slightly weaker than normal across most of the tropical Pacific.
However, most international computer models are predicting a return to neutral conditions during the coming months.
Next update on El-Nino on 3rd.April.

More feedbacks and cross references always welcome on this crucial and important topic.
kapadias@gmail.com

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Trivandrum recieved a massive 183 mm of rain in a day on 27th. March. This amount of rain is unprecedented, for the city, for a day's rain for the month of March. Previously, in 2008, Trivandrum had recieved 84mms in a day on the 23rd. of March.
Now, this record has been broken in leaps and bounds, and may hold on for quite a many years . This considering the fact that the normal rain for March for this city is 40mms.
The rains might linger on off the Kerala coast for the next couple of days, bringing some more thundershowers to the south Kerala coast.
But, the months total this year is 183mm, this being the first rains of the month. The highest total for March is 315mms , recorded in 2008.
This sudden cloudburst may be the result of an intense heat wave, the city has been through for the last 10days. Highs in Trivandrum had shot to 37.5c on a couple of days last week, a whisker short of the all time high for March of 37.7c.
The rain map shows the rains in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and almost all of Sri Lanka. Most probably a short lived easterly wave.
kapadias@gmail.com

Friday, March 26, 2010


If New Moore island appeared 50 years ago and got bigger, doesn’t that mean that that sea level dropped ?

News Report from A.P. recently hit the headlines, and as usual merged it with Global Warming.- (Oh no not again !)
"New Moore Island in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said. “What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming,” said Hazra.
If only Mother Nature could solve all our border disputes so peacefully.

Now, this claim that global warming induced sea level rise has submerged the island, does not make sense, nor stand to reason. Its a bad try to boost the GW factor again, after a mighty fall !
Temporary estuary islands and sandbars appear and disappear all the time worldwide. Sometimes it can take a few years, sometimes a few centuries. Most of the area near South Talpatti Island is only 1-3 meters above sea level anyway, which means that such low lying islands made of mud and sand are prone to the whims of tide and currents and weather.
Low lying islands are modified by nature on a regular basis.
In fact, NOAA’s nearest tide gauge, at Vizag, shows sea level rising in that region at 0.54 mm / year, which means that would take nearly 2000 years for sea level to rise one meter.
Sea level rises and/or land subsides, estuary flows change, and sandbars appear and disappear. In this case of a tiny sandbar/island near the Ganges/ Brahmaputra delta, it has nothing to do with global warming.
So in a choice between a sand bar in a river being washed away or the sea, presumably very, very locally, having suddenly risen over six feet, alarmists want us to believe the latter. Correct?
It’s probably been washed away by the deluge of Himalayan glacier water as 2035 fast approaches :)

And looking further back in time, islands have disappeared before: A pic from the from the Sarasota Herald - May 29, 1937.
Marine scientists say archaeological remains discovered 36 metres (120 feet) underwater in the Gulf of Cambay off the western coast of India could be over 9,000 years old.
The vast city – which is five miles long and two miles wide – is believed to predate the oldest known remains in the subcontinent by more than 5,000 years
How much co2 were they discharging 9,000 years ago?

Its an April Fools joke played early.
kapadias@gmail.com
 

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Extreme Heat Wave prevailed over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Vidharbh and the Northern States of India on 20/21/22/23 March.
Himalayan states of Kashmir, H.P.and Utteranchal were under intense heat, unusual and uncharacteristic for the terrain.
Srinagar, Simla, New Delhi and Dehra Dun, are all 1 degree away from the March all time high.
During the current heat wave period, Delhi reached 39.5, Srinagar and Simla reached 26c. In Gujarat, Ahemdabad was 42.5c, and Idar highest at 43.6c. In Vidharbh it was Chandrapur at 43.9c. (Have mentioned some more highs in my previous blogs).


21/22/23/ March 2010:
Some of the extremely High and Very Much above Normals of the past 2 days.
Hissar: 42 (+10) 25 (+10)
Srinagar: 26 (+12) 11(+8)
Simla 16 (+11)
Palanpur 30 (+10) 18 (+8)
Dharamsala 30 (+8)
Ambala 38 (+8)
Dehradun 36 (+8)
Keylong 14 (+7) 3 (+5)

Now, as per our blog discussion on 22 March,the abetment of heat has already commenced, and the day temperatures have reached around +7c above normal now.
With a couple of W.Ds approaching the Northern region, one can surely expect a further fall in the temperatures, and be back to normal levels, at least.
For sure, the ridge in the North-West plains (mentioned in my previous blog) has moved away, and this should make it easy for the W.D.s to move into the Northen states, rather than move away over Kashmir, as has happened so far this month.
And, the perfect condition for good monsoon forecast would be rains precipitating northwards of Rajasthan, and keeping the Northern Peninsula dry in March.

Mumbai is back to reasonable day temperature regions.And at 31c in the day, we have no reasons to complain about "heat".
As mentioned, Mumbai will see a range of 34/35c in the day and 25c at night thru this month.
No grumbling after seeing the figures of the other cities. 42/43...whew THATS HOT !!

Tuesday, March 23, 2010


A quick look at the current El-Nino position: Active and persistent.

The Monthly SOI from May to Dec 2009, is -5.1, -2.3,  1.6,  -5.0,  3.9, -14.7,  -6.7,  -7.0, and for the JAN/FEB 2010 -10.1,  -14.5.
Negative figures in June, and August last year indicate the emerging El-Nino. Now, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] to 20 March was -10.

What we need a positive SOI from May onwards for a healthy monsoon.
Normally, regions affected by El Nino weather pattern are Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, northern Sumatra, Sarawak and Sabah.

India 's monsoon link to El-Nino has never been proved. But I would say for certain that all drought years were El-Nino years,though all El-Nino years did not prove drought years. Sure, El-Nino years did give sparse rains and a deficit monsoon.
The typical impacts of El Nino over the Southeast Asian region come in the form of unusual and prolonged dry conditions: this is particularly the case in the Indonesia region and Borneo Island.
Even though El Nino started sometime duringJune 2009 as announced by established global climate centres, the periodic dry of the weather continues into Feb 2010.It is forecasted to be over by May.

kapadias@gmail.com



Mauritius and Polar Bears Safe Now !

Much of the record breaking loss of ice in the Arctic ocean in recent years is down to the region’s swirling winds and is not a direct result of global warming, a new study reveals. About half of the variation in maximum ice loss each September is down to changes in wind patterns, the study says.
Stop the GW hysteria, and open the door to different hypotheses to be studied. Another example of why we need more research–not panic.

Monday, March 22, 2010


Sub_Continent Heat Wave may subdue a bit:
The Heat Wave in the Southern Asian region has today shifted focus on Northern India and Sindh. The highest today, 22nd March, was at Nawabshah (Sindh), recording 44.5c. The highest in India was at Nagpur, 42.5c. The map has the distribution of today's highs.

Ok, marginally less, but at Hissar, which saw 41c, it waqs +9c ! That is, instead of 33c, it was 41c ! The IMD anomaly map shows the red region in the Northern Indian areas. Of-course not much relief, as the entire country is in the above normal range.


Just for comparisons, and to subdue the din of Global Warming",, I am attaching a map of 22 March 2004. Equally hot ! Maybe more ! So lets not jump to any conclusions (about GW) now. :)


This early heat is mainly due to the fact that a high, a ridge, in the 500hpa height, stationed itself over Sindh/Gujarat initially, and then is moving east, and gradually weakening. This has pushed the jet streams further north, and in simple terms,pushed the W.D.s,and cooler fronts far northwards.
Somewhat Good sign: The ridge is weakening, in the next few days. And, at the most, Northern regions may not see temperatures 7/9c above normal....but, a little less above the normal!


I would have made a lot of ''Monsoon Predictions" if this heat wave was to happen in say..sometime in the 2nd. week of April. I would have predicted a faster seasonal low over Rajasthan, and quick heating of the seas to create a pre monsoon low.BUT, all these pre monsoon predictions cannot be made in March. In short, these heat waves and ridges have to make a repeat performance, say after a month, for a proper build up to the monsoon.
Hopefully, we should not recieve heat convection rains in central/north-west India now in March. This would dampen the real build up of heat required next month.


Mumbai's northern suburb S'cruz suddenly reported a high of 38c today. A bit surprising, as the downtown reported 34.5c. A big difference in the two.
Not very surprising though, as Thane, also north of Mumbai and about 40kms from downtown , saw a high of 39.5c on the AWS.
Expect no respite for Mumbai..at least as far as I can see, that is till the end of march. The reminder of this month will be hot, arounf 35c, and a bit more stuffy and hot on Thursday, 25th, maybe at 36/37c, and 26/27c at night. Thats warm, and normally should be our April end readings.

kapadias@gmail.com

Friday, March 19, 2010


Poll could end sooner than expected:
Our 45c poll may not last too long. 50% have given an indication of the 45c touching after May 15th.
Well Well. Lot of rethinking required the way cities in the west are heating up !
Gujarat, everything ok there ?? 43.1c (+7) at Baroda, 43.0c (+8) at Bhuj, 43.0 (+7) at Rajkot, and 42.9c (+7) at Surat. These are the top temperatures in India on the 19th, March.
Hotspot Rajasthan and Vidharbh cities are highest at 40c.
And across in Sindh, 44c at Chorr was the highest in Asia on the 19th.
But, lets not judge or jump to any conclusions or estimates on the monsoon. Too early, we have April to go through still ! Come tropical Thunderstorms, and heat waves just vanish !




IMD anomaly map for 19th. still shows the west-east heat wave.

kapadias@gmail.com

Thursday, March 18, 2010


El Nino may weaken and its impact on the monsoon may wane:

The occurance of the El-Nino weakening ,could be a “positive sign” for India’s monsoon and a repeat of last year’s drought could be unlikely.
The driest monsoon rainfall last year in more than three decades caused a drought in half the country and forced record imports of sugar, pulses and cereals. Event of a normal rainfall will aid crops, and help control inflation from the highest level in 16 months.


“The year following an El Nino year (i.e. this year) is considered to be favorable for Indian monsoons,” Siddhartha Sanyal and Dipti Saletore, economists at Edelweiss Securities Ltd., said in a report today. El Nino “had been one of the main reasons for the occurrence of three droughts in India in the recent past.”


Current Condition in Brief:
-Central Pacific sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long-term average.
-The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific also remains warmer than the long-term average. However, the sub-surface water in the central Pacific has cooled over the past two weeks.
-The SOI has remained steady over the past week after increasing in value after a rapid fall in February. The latest approximate 30-day value of the SOI is -8.
-Trade winds are slightly weaker than normal across most of the tropical Pacific.
-Cloudiness near the date-line remains well above average. Cloudiness near the date-line across the equatorial Pacific is another important indicator of El Niño conditions, as it typically increases near and to the east of the dateline during these episodes. Cloudiness near the date-line has increased over the past fortnight and remains well above average
-Most international computer models are predicting a return to neutral conditions during the initial begining of the Northern hemisphere summer.


In short, current conditions favour an active El-Nino, but,
The El Nino condition over the Central Pacific Ocean was expected to fade out from July onwards, according to model forecasts.
kapadias@gmail.com



Heat Wave East & West !:

Just yesterday I had written that soon Gujarat and Rajasthan will heat up to 42/43c range.
But, in less than 24hrs of finishing my blog..or just "before the ink dries", Gujarat is going ahead in full swing, with almost all cities touching the level today.


No, I wasn't so enthusiastic about it !
Take todays highs: Baroda 42.7c, Bhuj 42.6c, Ahemdabad 42.5c, Surat 42.2c and Rajkot 42.2c ! And Bhuj is +8c above normal and rest 6/7c above. And in adjoining Sindh, Chore 44c and Karachi 42c.
Thats a heat Wave (IMD Map) in the Eastern and Western corner of India!
kapadias@gmail.com

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Summer:
As I write this, I am beginning see summer transition in "postings"

For those of you living from Delhi to Mumbai down South, it's really heating, up as the westerlies shift south and high pressure builds across the border, and in the Arabian Sea.
Fortunately for many, winter is not quite done yet, as snow remains on the hills, albeit lighter in the H.P.and Utteranchal states, but on the higher reaches, and in Ladakh, decent snows remain and will likely remain there until April. Days are heating up, we aren't breaking above normal temps records as yet, for the time of year,but, we're remaining above normal,


These are the readings of the hottest days in Asian Cities today, 17th. March.
Chhor (Pakistan) 42°
Ahmadabad Airport ( India) 41.5°
Rajkot (138 m, India) 40.5°
Bhuj ( India) 41°
Jaisalmer ( India) 40°
Kurnool ( India) 40°
Jodhpur ( India) 40°
Al Ahsa Airport ( Saudi Arabia) 40


Now going into the 42s, our poll target of 45c seems a few weeks away!
Anyway, with no rainfall or W.D.in sight, we see a marginal heating this week in Rajasthan and Gujarat regions, with the highs going upto 42c in Ahemdabad, Rajkot, Bhuj and Baroda, and in some cities in rajasthan. A.P. may see a 41c in Kurnool or Tirupati.
Map of todays highs in the Sub-continent.

Sunday, March 14, 2010


El-Nino Still Very Much Active:

El Niño expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2010
A moderate-to-strong El Niño continued during February 2010, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding 1.5oC in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the month.



The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] to 6 March was -11. Contributing pressure anomalies are +1.3 hPa at Darwin and -1.0 hPa at Tahiti. The 30-day mean SOI reached the lowest value since 12 March 2005 of -23.8 on 12 February. The SOI remained negative since 11 October 2009. The monthly SOI for February was -14. Indications of an effective El-Nino. Graph shows almostreaching '98 levels.

In Southeast Asia, millions of people are likely to remain without water for the drought caused by the arrival of Nino. In the Mekong River region, where more than 65 million people live, the water level is at its lowest level in over 30 years. In Thailand, the biggest exporter of rice in the world, the drought has affected 36 provinces out of 76. These are all located near the Mekong River; most of the crops of rice and sugar are concentrated. The drought has reduced water reserves by 15% and 4 million people have already been forced to ration water.
In Indonesia and Malaysia the entire palm oil industry is in danger. The situation even more serious in the Philippines.The drought has already caused more than 25 million euros in damages and the lack of water in the hydroelectric power plants has thrown the country into a severe energy and food crisis.

Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010 . The majority of models predict the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5oC by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions near the onset of Northern Hemisphere summer.

El Niño impacts are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring, even as equatorial SST departures decrease, partly in response to the typical warming that occurs between now and April/May. Expected impacts during March-May 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.

Predicting when El Niño will dissipate and what may follow remains highly uncertain. Should be observed for our South-West Monsoons. The South_East Asia region is the originating area for our Bay branch of the Monsoon. The Bay lows form from this region !
kapadias@gmail.com

Friday, March 12, 2010


Quick report @10p.m. on Friday.
Hails in Aurangabad. Thundershowers in Maharastra. Pune 13mms, Akola and Aurangabad (10 mms) recieve thundershowers along with most regions in Marathwada and Vidharbh. Due to line of discontinuity.
Temperatures in central regions should drop for a few days.
More details tomorrow.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010


Weather Snippets for February and March:

-8 Mar 10: Barcelona hit with heaviest snowfall in 25 years -A foot of snow in France. - Snowfalls of up to 50 cm (20 inches).With snow falling at the rate of one to two inches per hour at times, upwards of a foot of snow fell at Perpignan, France.

snowfall in Barcelona


- 7 Mar 10:Hailstones the size of grapefruit pummel Melbourne .The Bureau of Meteorology reported severe wind gusts and hailstones up to 10cm wide (the size of a grapefruit)
- 7 Mar 10: Heavy snowfall in Germany - Heavy snowfall in parts of Germany triggered a deadly avalanche and caused thousands of accidents,
-2 Mar 10: Heavy rains in the Gulf desert state of the United Arab Emirates caused flooding, traffic jams, car accidents and school closures, after four weather-related deaths at the weekend. Some residents of the emirate of Sharjah were trapped in their homes by high waters
- 1 Mar 10: Coldest UK Winter in 30 years - The UK has had its coldest winter in over thirty years, according to statistics just released by the Met Office. Ireland had its coldest winter in 50 years. Unless you're of a certain age this winter has been a real shock to the system.
-22 Feb 10 - With heavy snowfall since Friday, the Russian capital was blanketed with a record-breaking 63cm of snow yesterday, the regional weather centre said, breaking the record 62cm set in 1966. Record snowfall blankets Moscow- 17,000 snowplows removing snow -
So far this month, almost 50cm of snow has fallen, three times the monthly average.
kapadias@gmail.com



Is the number of earthquakes increasing? An Interesting Analysis, worth sharing.
According to the United States Geological Survey, no.

Technology has increased the amount of earthquakes that are detected and reported. Today, there are thousands of stations, compared to about 350 in 1931. The increase of stations has allowed scientists to detect earthquakes that would not have been decades ago.
Rapid improvements in global communications have enabled news of an earthquake to spread almost instantly. Several decades ago, the USGS said, it could take weeks after an earthquake to make the newspapers, often landing on the back pages.
Population booms are also contributing the the perception that there are more earthquakes. Many of these population increases are in earthquake-prone areas, so there is a higher possibility of more casualties when a major quake strikes.
"We have not seen any statistical increase in the number of earthquakes if you look back over the tens and hundreds of years," said Paul Earle, a USGS seismologist. "However, unfortunately the recent earthquakes have impacted populated areas, which brings them into the news, and people become more aware of the earthquakes."
In 1960, Haiti had a population of 3.87 million, according to the World Bank data finder. Since then, it has more than doubled to 9.84 million as of 2008.
Based on records kept since 1900, the USGS expects a yearly total of 17 major earthquakes and one great earthquake. Major earthquakes are those between 7.0 and 7.9 on the Richter scale, while great earthquakes are classified as 8.0 and above.
Since 1990, the amount of major earthquakes has stayed relatively constant. This estimation of 17 quakes has not been exceeded, with the highest number of 16 major quakes occurring in 2009. (Taken from AccuWeather.com's Gina Cherundolo)

Monday, March 08, 2010


Most convincing and a "To the Point" write-up on so called Global Warming or Climate Change. Mark has put up something I could not convey in 10 blogs !
Read at : http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2010/03/probabilistic-forecasting-will-and-is.html

or see lonk in this blog.

Maximum Temperatures on 8th.March:

Tak ( Thailand) 41°
Phetchabun ( Thailand) 40°
Bhumibol Dam (Thailand) 40°
Kosumphisai ( Thailand) 40°
Thong Pha Phum ( Thailand) 40°
Monywa ( Myanmar) 40°
Prome ( Myanmar) 40°
Lampang ( Thailand) 40°
Nang Rong ( Thailand) 40°
Loei (, Thailand) 40°
Ramgundam ( India) 40°
The Far East heat is rising, with the 41c in Thailand today (8th.March), and 7 other 40s in Thailand, and 2 in Myanmar.

Indian sub continent heat was milder on the 8th, and with one 40c. The "below normal" day temperatures have now covered most of northern and central regions (IMD Map). Though the rest of the regions are still marginally above normal.
Across in Pakistan, temperatures in the day were moderate, with Nawabshah highest at 35c.

However in India, the nights are still warm. Major portions of the country show above normal temperatures, indicating no nip, nor winter coolness at nights. The coolest night in the plains of the country was at Amritsar, 10.8c and the minimum of 25.6c at Kolkatta Airport was 6c above the normal !


This anomaly NOAA map, of the 1st week of March, shows the extent of heat in the sub continent last week ! Only the extreme South is spared.

Some relief and "Feel Good" Himalayan temperatures; Lowest in Ladhak today: -26c, Lowest in Himachal today: -8c Keylong.

Lowest in Asia: Ojmjakon (Russia) -49c, Lowest in Europe:( besides Russia): Samedan Airport, Switzerland -24c.
Shall catch-up next week on the El-Nino scene.
kapadias@gmail.com

Friday, March 05, 2010


First 40c of this summer touched in India:

Its Anantpur ! On 5th. March,this city is the first to touch 40c, 40.2 to be precise, in India. This temperature for Anantpur,is 4c above normal for this day. The 2nd.nearest city, seen as rounded to 40 on the map, is Kurnool,at 39.5c.
So our poll closes today, with none of the assumed cities getting to the mark, and the "others" category reaching the mark. Though some of the cities did threaten to reach the mark last week. We had 14% vote for other cities, and 29% for Nagpur.


Now, the map shows this as a sudden development. Just when things were cooling down a bit, and the W.D.promised some relief, 1 Indian city shoots into the 40s !The regions hitherto hot, and the areas around Anantpur and Kurnool, are still around 35-37c today.


Just to compare, the first 40s of the last few years: 2009:Bhubaneshwar on 25th.Feb,  2008:Akola on 17th.March,   2007:Mumbai 16th. March and  2006:Akola 0n 22nd. February.
2 Febs in last 5 years !


And, all of a sudden,today, there are a spate of 40s in rest of Asia too !
Makkah (Saudi Arabia) 40°
Kurnool ( India) 40°
Nang Rong ( Thailand) 40°
Anantapur ( India) 40°
Monywa (Myanmar) 40°
4 countries recording their 40s today, and all except Thailand, their first of the season.

Thursday, March 04, 2010


W.D.Relief in March ?

Days continue to be above the normal for early summer.
But,after 8 days,as on today,4th March,we see shades of "below normal" day temperatures along the western region and North-West India. The progressive Northward push of the "Above Normal" heat has been halted. This is well noticed when anomaly maps of the 1st, ( in my previous blog), and 4th. are compared.
And the respite factor can only be an effective W.D.

Yesterday (3rd.), Asia reached its 40c mark, at Nang Rong,Thailand.


Todays day temperature map from IMD shows Anantpur as the highest in India at 39.4c. Many of the cities which earlier threatened to touch 40c soon have come down to 35-37c levels. Today Nagpur was 38.6c, Akola 36.4 and Baroda 34.6c. This leaves my blog poll still open.




Meanwhile, an IMD outlook indicates the arrival of a fresh western disturbance over the western Himalayan and Punjab regions.
Hence, fairly good rains are expected in the north-Western India next few days.
Ahead, there seems to be more releif in terms of summer heat creeping Northwards soon. ECMWF predicts another fairly effective W.D.over North India from the 12th. of March.
So, right into mid-March, maximum temperatures are expected to fall thanks to the cloudiness brought about by the western disturbance


Mumbai, which had shot up to 37.5c on 2 consecutive days on 27/28 February,and later climbed down to 35.5c on the 1st., was reasonably comfortable at 30c today. I dont expect sticky humid weather till mid-March at least.


But February has been warm and hot for Mumbai. Right thru the month the temperatures have been above normal, and towards the fag end of the month, the hot red patch is bigger. Clicking on the diagram, will bring details like the mean departure for the month at +0.95c.
 
kapadias@gmail.com

Monday, March 01, 2010


Officially Summers here. In our region, the summer season starts 1st. March, from down south, and as explained before,slowly creeping its way Northwards.

Well, this year, this process started early, about 10 days ahead of the normal date. And by 1st. march, as the IMD map shows, its already moved half way into India.
The anomaly map shows the overheating from the last week of February.
The highest in India, and Asia today,1st March, is Akola at 39.7c. But I will not enter it as the first 40c, as it is still 0.3c away from winning the poll.! Mumbai at 35.5c was a shade down from 37c yesterday.
Lots of 37s and few 38s indicate the intensity. We also see the above normal area engulfing large portions of the country, more so the central areas.


Across the border, days are heating up, with Nawabshah at 37c.