Sunday, October 30, 2016

29 OCT 2016 (DIWALI DAY)..INTERESTING CONTRASTING WEATHER..
( With weather update of 30 Oct 2016..see below the map)

..Vagarians..Please explain the cause for points 1 and 2 below..

1) South Konkan/Goa/Parts of Coastal Karnataka experienced their coolest Diwali day of recent years..Temperatures almost rivalled those of North Indian cities at this time of the year.. very unusual !!
..Coastal Vengurla (31/17) was cooler than Bengaluru (32/19) !!

2) At the same time ,East India was warm and the bastion of North East Moonsoon (Tamilnadu) was hot .. Salem 37/26 , K.Paramathy 37/25

-- It's that time of the year when cities of the deccan can be cooler than those of the North Indian plains .. Maharashtra having crisp cool winter weather (Nasik @ 11.4 c )
  • Mumbai region recorded max temp of 34 c (dry,breezy) and min temp in the range of 17 to 20 c today.

 ::Refer the map below ( Click and enlarge for a better view):: 

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30 Oct morning( min temp) update..Maharashtra/ Goa..

Mumbai - SCZ @ 18.2 c , Badlapur ( Abhijit private reading) @ 16.2 c ..
Nasik @ 11.2 c , Pune @ 12 c , Nagpur @ 15.5 c , Aurangabad @ 15.2 c , Vengurla @ 18.9 c ,
Valpoi ( Goa) @ 19.5 c..

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Posted Thursday 27th Night:

Well, I had admitted in advance, that this BB-14 is going to tear our hair apart, and will behave most unexpectedly. Never have I given up on any system. But, 8 days ago, in my post on the 20th of this month, I said "this is going to be puzzling".I could see the uncertainties of the Ridge and the varying wind shears and the sudden Western segment cover up of dry air (hence my mention of the system may weaken on re curving), 

And sure enough,it tracked most unexpectedly, initially North, then West, then again Eastwards and followed by a N/NE track. Later a re curve to West and then West/South West. 
Reasons for this changes is the East movement of the Sub Tropical Ridge in the upper atmosphere and the frequent changes in the 200 level jet streams. The upper air moved in a "haywire" manner. Shear and dry air resisted the system later. 

The only one point where i may say i got it right was that the system would weaken if it re curved to the West, and weaken it did...lying today as a depression and maybe a well marked low on Friday.

The system being currently in the 83E Location, has brought N/NE winds to the Southern parts of the East Coast, AP and TN. This change of winds are favourable for the advance of the NEM, which I would say would move into the entire Southern Region around the 29th, seeing the pushing inland of the BB-14 Low Pressure.

Another development i see is the sudden cover up of the Southern peninsula with clouds as BB-14 crosses the coast (on 29th) at around 15N on the East coast, bringing heavy rains to Southern AP Coast. 
We may see a sudden "filling up" of clouds inland, bringing rainfall in TN, Karnataka, Kerala and Goa.
Inland clouding will spread subsequently upto 15N.

Chennai: Initial showers on 29th and Thunder Showers expected in Chennai 30th/31st. Seeing Easterly winds from 30th as the system dissipates inland.
Mumbai had some pleasantly cool weather on Tuesday/Wednesday with the minimum at 18.8c. But, next few days till 2nd November,  there will be a rise in temperatures, with partly cloudy skies. Warm days.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Posted Saturday Night....10.30 pm IST:
BB-14 moved E/NE from our last report, and is located currently at 15N and 92E. Estimated core wind speeds at 25kts. 
Expected track is NE, and intensification expected.

Vagaries sees reducing and decreasing possibility of significant re-curving after reaching Myanmar coast. If at all it re curves, it will start to weaken considerably.

NEM is delayed till at least end October...

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Vagaries Views..Posted Friday Night:
BB-14, a depression with estimated core pressure at 1000/1002 mb and estimated core winds at 20-25 kts , is located at 14N and 90 E. Seemingly stationary, but has taken an anti clockwise loop and come back to yesterday's position.

Divergence at the 200 levels is seen, thus and along with vertical wind shear over the core region, we expect further intensification of system. Will become a Deep Depression by Saturday, and in all likely hood a cyclone by Sunday/Monday.
Expected to track E/NE towards the Myanmar coast near Pathein. 

As the system intensifies off the Myanmar coast, 200 level winds guidance and no 500 level ridge resistance will steer the stem BB-14 from th Myammar coast to re-curve and track NW towards the Bengal coastline.Expected there by around 25th October, depending on the re-curve spped.

In this scenario, the NEM can get delayed beyond the expected 24th date...

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Posted Thursday Night:

A well marked Low, BB-14, has formed in the Bay, at 14N and 90E to be precise.The UAC from BB-14 extends to the Upper Air levels.
Currently, the convection and precipitation is in the SW quadrant, along with maximum winds at 20-25 knts. 

This system is likely to deepen into a depression in the next 24 hrs. 
Some International Models suggest BB-14 to move in a NE track and towards the Myanmar coast. The system then hits the Myanmar coast and moves inland.
Another Forecasting model makes the system just graze the Myanmar coast around the 24th, and then forecasts a W/NW track towards Odisha on the Eastern Coast of India.Another forecast, in agreement with IMD, suggests the system to go towards Bengal after the brush with Myanmar.
One particular model forecasts a direct track NW towards the AP/Odisha coast.
These various track estimates are based on certain uncertain Upper Winds and STR at 500 level, which is positioned in far West today, and the tracks of 2 consecutive WDs.

Since I am unable to estimate the track of this puzzling BB-14, would like to read comments on possible track from readers. Please post your views by Saturday.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Mumbai.....Starting to Feel the Heat ??

Well, See last year ( and 2014 October for comparison) this time Here and Here...and compare...Last year was the Hottest October ever at Scruz and the Warmest October Night ever at Colaba !

Monday, October 17, 2016

With the 2016 rainy seasons hesitating to change between the SWM and NEM, a brief Summary of the NEM.

-The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
For the NEM, it is not so.
In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

-The main has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

-The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.
-The Upper Air temperatures show a Northward gradient in the NEM.Near 10N it is normally warmest, and dropping by 8c at 30N.

-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.
In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

-The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.
-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.
-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure sysytems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

The advent of the NEM is getting  delayed this year.
Vagaries predicts its advance around the 24th. taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM. The SWM lingers on, and even today, on the 17th, is still prevailing over parts of Karnataka and T.N.

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are long overdue west of Java and Sumatra.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are seasonal and weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Monsoon withdraws from Mumbai....
Withdrawal Position on 14th October....


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Heavy Rains in Kerala and adjoining T.N....( As estimated ..See reason in Monday 10th Oct Post)

Amounts from PJ....



Thursday, October 13, 2016

Posted 13th October Thursday Night
Technical Withdrawal Line of South West Monsoon...Images below give the explanation..
For Mumbai, though technically not in the withdrawal region, the Monsoon is as good as withdrawn...and Withdrawal for Mumbai will be announced here by 15th, as the 200 level winds change and UTH drops, along with favourable (for withdrawal) level drop of OLR .




Wednesday, October 12, 2016

As we expected, heavy rains continue in Coastal and Interior Karnataka. Some rain amounts as on 12th Morning:
Hethenahalli (Tumakuru) 138 mms, Balkoor (Uttara Kannada) 98 mms, Srigiripura (Ramanagara) 92 mms, Chowlahiriyur (Chikkamagaluru) 82 mms, Padupanaambur (Dakshin Kannada) 74 mms, Narasipura ( Bengaluru Rural) 71 mms, Herihalli ( Chitrdurga) 70 mms. 

The Latest OLR, UTH and WV Images show Withdrawal of South West Monsoon from Gujarat, M.P, Uttar Pradesh, Utterakhand, Madhya Mah, Vidharbh and North Konkan (Including Mumbai) in next 24 hrs...await announcement here on Thursday 13th October.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Massive Rains in Uttara Kannada district in Karnataka

Not often you will see 300 mm rainfall in 24 hrs in Karnataka in October 2nd week. This is one was such a freak heavy rainfall. most of the heavy rains happened in Ankola Taluk in Uttara Kannada district in Northern Karnataka.



Water from Karanja Dam released after 6 years

The last time water was released from the reservoir was in 2010. Karanja which has the capacity to store 6.9 TMC of water. Water being released fron the Karanja Dam in Bidar following heavy inflow in the past few days (Photo Courtesy: DC)


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2nd consecutive day of rains in Pune, while Pune had 27 mms on Monday 10th, Tuesday Pune saw 7 mms.
Sangli (South Madhya Mah) had light rains on Tuesday.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Posted Monday Night:

1. Mumbai: A weak Low prevails off South Konkan Coast. Expected Thunder Showers did not occur on Sunday/Monday. The Low mentioned will shift Southwards along the coast (in the trough) along with Monsoon Axis. 
Mumbai (and North Konkan Towns) have a slight possibility of some thunder showers on Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Monsoon would withdraw from North Konkan, Madhya Mah,Marathwada, Vidharbha and MP and remaining Gujarat by 15th October. 

2.Some showers will prevail next 2 days in South Konkan and Goa.

3.Rains will continue this week in Interior and coastal Karnataka. Some heavy showers towards end of this week in Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu.

4.Rainfall decreases in Eastern Regions of India from Wednesday.

5.North and North West India are seeing warmer than normal temperatures, Day and Night. Would expect a drop in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR by 2/3 c in Night temperatures by Saturday morning.

Saturday, October 08, 2016

INDIA..SOME MONSOON TOPPERS .. 1 JUN - 8 OCT 2016..

SHIRGAON  (Chiplun , Maha) .. 9424 mms
LAMAJ (Maha)..8030 mms
KITWADE* ( Maha) .. 7597 mms *( 1 Jun -30 Sep)
MAHABALESHWAR (Maha) .. 6810 mms
AMBOLI (Maha)..6611 mms
DAWDI ( Maha) .. 6497 mms
CHERRAPUNJI (Megh) .. 6261 mms
NAVAJA (Maha).. 6101 mms
DAJIPUR (Maha).. 6055 mms


  INDIA .. 10 MOST POPULATED CITIES ..RAINS IN mms
(Click and enlarge for better view)

Wednesday, October 05, 2016



FINAL MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2016 TO 30-9-2016)


TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL this season (as on 30-9-2016)862.0 mm
SEASON +/--2.87%


RAINFALL PER DAY from 01-06-2016 to 30-9-2016 7.07 mm

             
TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL

KONKAN & GOA 3549.8
COASTAL KARNATAKA 2428.8
SHWB & SIKKIM 1996.2
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 1699.1
A & N ISLAND 1562.6
KERALA 1352.2
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 1249.4
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA 1249
N M M T 1244
CHHATTISGARH 1176

BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL

HIMACHAL PRADESH 624.5
N. I. KARNATAKA 525.7
S. I. KARNATAKA 524.5
JAMMU & KASHMIR 481.8
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 416.9
RAYALASEEMA 392.2
PUNJAB 352
HAR. CHD & DELHI 338.3
WEST RAJASTHAN 315.8
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY 258.1
              
TOP TEN SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL

EAST RAJASTHAN 32%
KONKAN & GOA 22%
MARATHWADA 21%
WEST RAJASTHAN 20%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH 19%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH 19%
TELANGANA 19%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH 14%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA 12%
VIDARBHA 9%


BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL

TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY -19%
COASTAL KARNATAKA -21%
S. I. KARNATAKA -21%
GUJARAT REGION -24%
HIMACHAL PRADESH -24%
LAKSHADWEEP -25%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -27%
PUNJAB -28%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA -30%
KERALA -34%

CATEGORY WISE SUBDIVISIONAL (%)







% DISTRIBUTION ABOVE/BELOW  DAILY RAINFALL



REGIONAL RAINFALL ACTUAL

MONTHLY RAINFALL ACTUAL


2016 RAINFALL IN PERSPECTIVE

                                                                                                                                       source:IMD

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Posted Tuesday Night:

Monsoon Withdrawal till now Stationary at West Rajasthan...Withdrawal Line will now move towards Delhi NCR by 7th October:

New Delhi: The prevailing UAC over Gujarat, which also had a segment in adjoining MP, delayed the crisp cooling normally felt in Delhi and NW India. In fact, interaction with a WD trough brought some rains to Delhi on Tuesday. Seeing temperatures around 36/37c continuing in Delhi next 3 days, and the nights may drop below 22c after the weekend. Monsoon withdrawal by 7th October.

Mumbai: Wednesday Thursday and Friday: Getting some respite from rains in Mumbai and Konkan towns. Partly cloudy with few showers next 3 days. Periods of sunshine will warm up the days. Possible increase in rains again from Next weekend.

Showers will continue in Saurashtra and Gujarat Region till 8th October. 
Saurashtra may see thunder showers next 3/4 days.Some spots may get heavy showers, while many towns will get between 20-30 mms. 
Ahmadabad will get thunder showers on Wednesday, Thursday and maybe on Friday.
Rains decreasing in Surat after Wednesday.Very windy . Probable of some revival on Sunday 9th October.

Monsoon Withdrawal from MP after 10th October.

Sunday, October 02, 2016

MAHARASHTRA RAINS (1 JUN - 30 SEP 2016)
Good rains at Maharashtra .. Coast and western ghats rock

( Click and enlarge for better view )
 

Saturday, October 01, 2016

Monsoon Rainfall from June - September 2016...Thanks to Tejas, Abhijit, Salil, Ronnie, Rohit, Praneeth and Navdeep






Monsoon Rainfall from June - September 2016...Thanks to Tejas, Abhijit, Salil, Ronnie, Rohit, Praneeth and Navdeep