Friday, December 31, 2010


Wishing all Readers a "Prosperous and Happy 2011"

Many Many Thanks for your constant support and Inputs-and that has kept "Vagaries" alert and moving !
“No matter what the weather did or does, climate scientists blame it on global warming. Every event in nature is now seen as a sign of global warming".-Steven Goddard.


Mumbai Current Conditions at 6.30 p.m.on 31st. Dec:

Temperature: 24c. Wind NNW at 15 kmph. Sky hazy. Humidity: 41%.

Delhi Current Conditions, 6.30 p.m. on 31st. Dec:
Temperature: 13c. Wind:NW at 13 kmph. Sky: Light clouds. Humidity: 94%.

Forecast for 31st. Evening: No Change to the forecast put up on 29th. for New Year Eve.


Thursday, December 30, 2010


Kashmir Valley was today cut off from rest of the country as incessant snowfall continued into the second day on Thursday.Nearly two feet of snow had accumulated in Qazigund.
On Thursday, Jammu received 45 mms of rain and Quazigund received 5o mms of snow.
Srinagar received 15 mms till Thursday morning and 22 mms of snow on Thursday in the day.
Other rainfall figures for Thursday during the day in cms were:
Chandigarh, Shimla and Bhuntar­3 each, Sundernagar, Chandigarh(A/F), Banihal and Hissar­2 each, Srinagar, Amritsar, and Ludhiana­1 each.

Other Northern India regions received between 10-30 mms of rain. The rainfall map is put up on the Vagaries Forecast page.

In H.P, the lower areas of the state received moderate to heavy rains, bringing the temperature down considerably,Manali got fresh spells of snowfall early Thursday morning.Manali has got 22 cm of snow so far, whereas the Rohtang Pass, just 52 km from Manali, has been covered with 34 cm of snow.

Dharamsala, Shimla, Solan, Kasauli, Nahan and Mandi received moderate to heavy rains.

Kufri and its nearby areas received more than 15 cm of snowfall. These places experienced season's first snow Wednesday.

Other popular spots Narkanda, 65 km from Shimla, the Solang Valley and Marhi near Manali also experienced moderate snowfall.

Kalpa in Kinnaur district and Keylong in Lahaul and Spiti district received 22 cm and 16 cm of snowfall respectively.

'The entire belt in Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, Kullu and Chamba district witnessed moderate to heavy snowfall during the past 24 hours.

Northern most regions of Pakistan received the rainfall effect of the W.D, with Islamabad getting 2cms of rain today.Likely to get clear and colder from Friday.

W.D. now moving away, with Nepal about to feel the precipitation effect from Friday.Khatmandu was 22.5c at the high today, and 2c as the low. The day temperature is expected to go down for a couple of day from friday, and the night should go to 0c by the 2/3 Jan, after the clouds clear.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The western disturbance prediction is on schedule, and has started precipitation in the North today, Wednesday 29th. Dec.

Kashmir Valley witnessed the first major snowfall of the season on Wednesday, 29th, evening, breaking the over two-month long cold dry spell.

While a mild snowfall mixed with rain lashed Srinagar and many other places in the lower reaches of the valley, higher reaches like Gulmarg and Pahalgam reported a steady moderate snowfall.Higher reaches of Uri and Gurez sectors of Kashmir Valley today received snowfall.It will be remembered,in the higher reaches, the first snowfall of this winter took place earlier than usual on October 22.

And in H.P,the hills around Shimla, and the Kufri hill slopes near Shimla and Narkanda received mild snowfall Wednesday evening. The higher hills in Lahaul and Spiti, Chamba, Kinnaur and Kullu districts also experienced moderate snowfall.
The picturesque tourist destination Dalhousie in Chamba district saw moderate snow.Most of the other hill stations, including Shimla, Kasauli, Dharamsala, Chamba were hit by intermittent rain throughout the day. Meanwhile, a cold wave continued to grip the higher reaches of state with Keylong, headquarters of Lahaul and Spiti recording the lowest minimum temperature of -8.2c . Kalpa in Kinnaur district saw a low of- 2c.
Apart from a mild spell of snow (8.2 cm) Jan 13 this year, there was no snow at all in Simla last winter,and in 2009, the town saw just two mild spells of snowfall, and those flakes too melted within a few hours.

In the plains, there was light to moderate rains in Punjab and Haryana. Delhi had light rains on Wednesday, while the rains were a little more in intensity in Rajasthan. (Check maps in links on the right of this page).
Day temperatures continued to remain low.


In Pakistan, light to medium precipitation was recorded in the Northern regions.Rain expected to clear in 2 days and bring in a cold wave in all the regions and down into Sindh, as estimated by Vagaries.

Coldest day temperature in the plains of India on Tuesday, 28th. Dec, was at Bhuj, where it was 12.7c as the maximum, 14c below normal !

New Year's Eve and New Year Day Forecast:
Mumbai:
31st.Dec: Clear skies. Cool Northerly winds will pick up from late afternooon. At about 15 kmph, it will be breezy and cold in open places, with real feel temperature of about 18c in South Mumbai, and 16c in the suburbs around mid-night. Navi Mumbai and Panvel should be 2c cooler than the suburbs.

1st. Jan 2011:
The minimum at dawn on New Years Day should be 16/17c at Colaba and 14/15c at S'Cruz. The day will be pleasant at 26c, with the North wind blowing in the day.

Pune:
31st.Dec: Evening will be breezy with Northerly winds, which will retrun to "calm" conditions around mid-night. The minimum on 1st. morning should go down to 10/11c, so at mid-night, it should be around 14c.
Colder after the 1st of Jan.

New Delhi:
31st.Dec:
Light rains in the day, keeping the day cold at 17c, and getting clear by evening. Night will be clear and cold. Would expect the minimum to be 8/9c on 1st. morning, but not much fog.

1st Jan:
Day will be cold and windy, with the temperature rising to 20c, and the minimum would drop to 6c by 2nd. morning.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

On Tuesday, 28th, at 12 noon, Srinagar overcast an 0c, New Delhi, Rohtak and Gurgaon 13c at noon with drizzles .


Monday, December 27, 2010

96B has formed in the Bay. embedded in the easterly wave.

Now, a little deviation in the forecast. The system has formed, but the system is not expected to move up north, as first thought in Vagaries. It may cross over into the Arabian Sea thru T.N. and kerala and weaken, and ultimately fizzle out by the 31st.
Hence, a little change in the 28-30 forecast map, which has been put up on the Vagaries forecast page now.
And the W.D. is expected to precipitate rains/snow in the northern states from 29th. and the rains will then move into Nepal on the 31st. A special 31st. map has been put up.
No fog expected in Delhi till 31st Dec. as a result.
Please check forecast maps on Vagaries Forecast Pages and Mumbai Pages regularly.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

International Page and inter active page (Panvel fog) updated ..today.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Thursday Night temperatures in India.

Lowest in Kashmir: Darbuk: -25c, Leh:-9.6c,Kargil: -9.4c, Gulmarg: -7.5c.and Pahalgam: -6.4c.
Lowest in H.P. today: Keylong:-7.1c, Kalpa:-4c.
Cold Wave in Orissa: Lowest at Phulbani: 4c.
Cold Wave in Interior Karnataka: Mysore: 9.8c.Lowest ever for December. HAL, BIAL and Yelahanka recorded a minimum of 9 degrees—six degrees below normal.Bangalore’s lowest temperature ever recorded was 7.8 degree Celsius in 1883.
Lowest in Mah: Ahamadnagar:5c.

For North India a chilly and wet New Year's Eve seems to be on the cards.A W.D. would move westwards into N.India, and by 29th, we could see precipitation in the region. Snow in Kashmir, rains in the plains of Punjab, N.Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi.
Since the W.D. aloft may not last beyond 48 hrs, precipitation in these regions could give in to a cold wave, with nights getting cooler by 3/5c,after 1st. Jan 2011.
Of-course, this being a 5/6 day forecast, dates could vary a day either way.

South india:
For this region, we see an easterly wave, a semi active MJO, approaching the T.N. Coast and adjoining Sri Lanka coast.After the 3 dry days forecasted by Vagaries, I would estimate rainfall to start increasing along the T.N. coast from 26th.

A gradual increase in rains would continue into 27th./28th. when, a low pressure is expected to be embedded in the wave.
If, the MJO gets active, we can expect the low to become well marked , and move Northwards along the coast, hence more rain from 27th. along T.N/South A.P. coast,and interior T.N.

If,in any case, the well marked low crosses the T.N./A.P. coast, we could see the rains spreading inland 0n the 29th. into interior Karnataka/ A.P. and even southern interior regions of Mah.may possibly get showers.

This W.D. will precipitate snow/rains in the extreme Northern regions of Pakistan on 28th.Rest of the Sindh and Punjab regions will be cloudy. Karachi caould expect cloudy weather on 26th/27th. Possible fog on 27th.
Cold wave in all the regions from 29th. and temperatures dropping by 3/5c.

In Nepal, Khatmandu fell to 1c on friday. Some rains/snow is expected in western parts of the country on 29th. Cold spell drop in temperatures again from New Year.

Mumbai Forecast on Page.

Thursday, December 23, 2010


The accumulated actual rainfall map of the 22nd. has been attached to show the (vagaries) forecasted W.D, somewhat weak and feeble, as IMD has put it.

It shows some precipitation in the Ladakh region and some rains in the western Kashmir region.

Rain/snow has also trickled into Northern and Central H.P. and extreme western Nepal as predicted.

The W.D. is expected to move away eastwards, and weaken or fizzle out.

The Cold Wave forecast map put up by Vagaries for 22/23/24 seems to “happening”.

The severe cold wave regions shown in the projection are the extreme frigid zone of Kashmir, where Leh has recorded -18c and Skardu in North Kashmir, (North of Drass) was -11c.

The “mild cold wave” predicted region of N.India plains, has seen Amritsar slide down to 2.4c on Tuesday, and Delhi touching 5.2c. Parts of N.Rajasthan was cold as Churu recorded 2.2c.

In the Central India region, M.P.too was cold, with Gwalior recording 6c, and the hill station of Pachmarhi going down to 1c.

Central Mah. felt the wave, and Jalgaon was the lowest at 5c, Nasik at 6c and Pune and Aurangabad at 9c.

In the Southern interiors, an unusual mild cold wave has come as a pleasant though uncomfortable surprise. Chintapalli in A.P. recorded 5.3c, and Gulbarga and Raichur 7c.

These areas can expect the cold to continue for another couple of days.

Vagaries will put up a temperature forecast map after 24th. When, we may see the nights getting warmer by 2/3c.

Precipitation forecast is : All India dry till Saturday.

I see no W.D. or system on the horizon for another 5 days at least.

Pakistan:

As an after effect of the W.D, Pakistan’s Northern region is now witnessing a moderate cold wave. Quetta was -4c and Islamabad went back to 0c on Tuesday. Lahore recorded 2c, and Karachi, as expected, was 11c.

Here too, the cold wave should retreat by the 24th. When the night temperatures will be up by around 2/3c, from Islamabd to Karachi in the South.

Nepal:

With light precipitation in the extreme west, as shown in the map, the W.D. effect for Nepal is over.

Katmandu at 1.6c will see a further fall to 0c on 23rd or 24th. Subsequently, the night temperatures will go up by 2/3c.

P.S. I had a comment requesting for more frequent updates. Will surely try to do so. But please note, the Internationa Page, Mumbai Weather and Space News are also very regularly updated. Sometimes, one may tend to overlook these pages.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

(Graphic Courtesy of the Daily Mail)

Monday, December 20, 2010

Expected easterly wave, shown on Vagaries Forecast map of 18th, has precipitated rains in T.N.Cuddalore District recieved the most rains, between 2-4 cms. Puducherry also had 2 cms of rain.Rains may shift to the Southern tip of india, and decrease and cease from Wednesday.
Light precipitation due to approaching W.D. likely in Kashmir, Hills of H.P.on Wednesday.
Forecast maps on Vagaries forecast page.

Pakistan:
By Tuesday, a W.D. is expected to precipitate rain/snow, not very heavy though, over the Northern regions of Pakistan and move into Kashmir by Wednesday.
Cold day temperatures are expected over N.Pakistan on Wednesday, and night temperatures should drop again from Thursday. Islamabad should fall back to 0c, or even -1c by Friday.
Sindh region temperatures will be in the 4-6c region,and Nokkundi(Sindh) may see freezing point, with Karachi expected to be around 9-10c on Thursday/Friday.

Nepal:
Extreme Western regions of Nepal will see some light rain/snow on Wednesday. A slight fall in temperatures in Nepal could be predicted on Thursday/Friday. Khatmandu may record 1c on these nights.
Mumbai Colaba dips to 17c on Monday morning. S'Cruz remains at 14.8c.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

On moving away, the recent W.D. has sent a mild cold wave into NW and parts of Western India. (Refer Vagaries Cold Wave Forecast Map). It seems the cold wave has eveded Kutch !

Some of the lows from the region, with Vagaries 19/20th. forecasted fig. in bracket, as on 19th. Sunday were:

Chusul (Ladahk): -28c

Kargil: -11c

Leh: -7.2c

Srinagar: -6c

Keylong: -6c and Kalpa :-4.5c

Adampur (Punjab): 0.9c ( 1c)

Amritsar: 3.3c (2c)

Bikaner: 7.5c (5c)

New Delhi: Lodhi Gardens: 6.7c , S’Jung: 8.5c, ( 7c)


Wardha: 5c

Nasik: 5.9c (5c)

Pune: 7.3c (7c)

Nagpur: 7.7c (10c)

M’Shwar: 10c (10c)

Rajkot: 10.3c (8c)

Ahamdabad; 10.9c (9c)

Bhuj: 12c (5c) – Surprisingly not cold here.

Mumbai: Colaba 19c (18c), S'Cruz: 14c (15c).

Cold Wave should be around for 1 more day in these regions.Expected to abate from Tuesday.

Another mild W.D. could be expected to cover the J.K./Himachal regions from Tuesday.

Minimums from the South:

Bijapur: 6c, Kodaikanal: 9c.

The Easterlty Wave is expected to bring some rains from Monday to the T.N. coastal areas.

A mild cold wave is also in force in the NE regions.

Kohima: 5c, below normal by 5c, Imphal: 6c and Cherrapunji : 7c.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

The long running poll on Vagaries is now due for change. After a patient wait for Mumbai to touch its all time record, 50% of the votes proved right. While 41% were hopeful of Mumbai receiving its highest ever rains for the year.

Now, I want a honest and frank opinion on the new poll.

Friday, December 17, 2010

On Friday, December 17, 2010, the W.D. forecasted (only) by Vagaries was precipitating rain/snow in Central and eastern Kashmir, and in the mountain ranges of H.P. and Utteranchal.See accumulated rain map (daily) in links for ready ref.

Snow was falling on Friday in Ladakh and Central Kashmir ranges, with Leh at high of 7.5c today.

W.D. is not expected to remain beyond Saturday.

Meanwhile, an Easterly wave is expected to bring some precipitation to the T.N. coast from Tuesday for a couple of days.

Otherwise, not much is seen on the precipitation front in the sub-continent till Wednesday, 22nd. December.

Vagries precipitation/Temperature forecast will be updated on the 18th. for the next 3 days.(Mumbai Forecast updated today).

A fall in the night temperatures in the Northern and NW sectors could be expected from Saturday night (due to the current W.D.).

A fall of 2c in the north, and 2/3 in central (M.P./Vidharbha) and western India (Guj./Mah.) could be expected.

Lows in North India on Friday,17th. Dec.:

Darbuk (Ladakh): -23c, Leh: -13c, Kargil: -10c, Srinagar: -5c,

Adampur (Punjab) 1.2c,

Lowest in Mah. : Wardha: 4.8c, Nasik: 7c.

Across the border in Pakistan, lows like -8c was recorded at Quetta and 2c in Islamabad. Karachi was at 12c. Not expecting a further drop next 2/3 days here.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

A BIG THANK YOU...

With a lot of support and feeback from readers, the Vagaries' counter has crossed the 50,000 mark !

Constant interaction with friends and readers, has helped me in bringing Vagaries to its present international status.

My theory has always been to put in facts by explaining my estimates and forecasts. Each prediction has been, as far as possible, supported by charts. Its always prudent for a meteorologist to give reasoning and not just prophesise. Things may eventually fall in place or go either way. Like I said, I am a meteorologist, not a magician.

Vagaries has constantly kept you updated with extreme records and events. When we started our 'Interactive' page, the input from you was very helpful, and a variety of information and pictures became possible.

Special thanks from Vagaries to: Akshay (Nagpur), Ananth, Ashokbhai (Rajkot), Cmdr. Potey (Mumbai), emkay (Panvel), Jim (Accuweather), Junaid (Panvel), Mark Vogan (Scotland), Max, Sanjay (Mumbai), Shiraz (Mahabaleshwar), svt, Tyrone (Karachi) and a host of other "anonymous" readers who have supported and guided Vagaries regularly with very valuable inputs.

A new tab, "Vagaries' Forecast", has been added to the blog. Its an attempt to give a pictorial forecast of rainfall and temperature. It should save the effort of detailed writing (and reading) giving an 'at-a-glance" view.

Please note, this will be updated regularly,as soon as the previous forecast gets invalid, and its update will not be reminded on the Home Page.

Also, new links have been added to the right of the blog. Below the "Profile". 1. IMD image. 2. Colour Image from NRL and 3.Latest Rainfall accumulation from IMD.In reality, this map shows the actual rainfall.

This should help readers to view images and rainfalls directly.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

The falling temperature trend throughout North/central and western India since last week has stopped, and the night temperatures have stabilised on a "lower plateau" on Tuesday. I expect the nights to get a bit warmer from Wednesday for a couple of days.
On the coming of the forecasted (by vagaries ) W.D. by Friday, the days in the North will get cooler by 2/3 c. And the lows would decrease again after the passing of the W.D.

More detailed forecast later.

Mumbai page updated.

Monday, December 13, 2010





An early December snow cover map of this year shows most of northern and central europe covered by a white blanket. Barring the Mediterranian Coast, the snow line has crept quite a bit towards the Southern regions.
U.K. is almost fully covered.Russia, of-course,is also fully blanketed.
Central Asia and Chna are partly covered,and the Hindu Kush range is snow covered, which is normal.
While, this year not much snow is seen in the Himalayan region and Northern Sub-Continent as yet.

Now, a comparison with the same date last year ! Self Explanatory !



And another comparison with 2006.


Anyway, I see things changing for the Sub-Continent Himalayan and Sub-Himalayan regions by this weekend.
Vagaries "sees" a W.D.(not yet announced by any models) approaching the Northern regions of Pakistan by the Friday, 17th, and into Northern India by 18th,Saturday. Give a day here and there.

Snow will commence by saturday in higher reaches and the kashmir valley, hills of H.P. and by Sunday/Monday into the hills of utteranchal.
The plains in Punjab, Haryana and west U.P. will get rains and hail.

On the passing away of the W.D, another cold wave in NW, central and western India. More of this later,its a too stretched out forecast.

Sunday, 12th. December Lows in India:
Kashmir:
Shyok: Min. -23c
Leh: Max.4.6c --- Min.-16.6c
Srinagar: Max 10.7c --- Min. -4c.
H.P.
Keylong: -4.7c
U.P. Agra: 4.5c
Plains of Northern India: Adampur (Punjab): 2.3c.
Rajasthan: Mt.Abu: -2c
Mah. Nasik: 7c.

Shiraz reports from Mahableshwar:"Dear Rajesh,
After months of wet weather, winter has arrived here. Temps. are (18C Max. and 12C Min.) not very low as yet, but we can feel the cold.
To-day morning was sunny, so it created the old Hill Station weather. Some clouds poped up in the afternoon, but they have disappeared now and we can feel the chill.
Regards, Shiraz"

Mumbai S'Cruz slid to 14.6c on Sunday night/Monday and Colaba was 19c. (see Vagaries of 7th.Dec), and Pune to 10c.Delhi hovered at 6.8c.

Cold spell expected to decrease from Tuesday.

Await changes in vagaries' format and presentation on crossing 50,000 hits !!
"NOTE FROM MARK VOGAN

I am honored to be linked in partnership with "Vagaries of the Weather", Mr Kapadia who created and provides the great info, graphics etc, has by far the best weather blog and provider of detailed and professional weather annalysis coming out of south Asia today, dedicated to not only local weather from the Mumbai area, but the continent as well as the world over".



A highly appreciated praise for our "Vagaries" from Author of our Partner Blog, Mark Vogan. Mark is himself a senior meteorologist from Scotland, and is known for his accurate weather and seasonal predictions.
Thanks Mark, for the kind words and encouragement.

Mark's link is put up on our blog.

Sunday, December 12, 2010


Gore Effect on Steroids: Six straight days of record low temperatures during COP16 in Cancun Mexico.

"The irony, it burns. Do you think maybe Gaia is trying to send the U.N. and the delegates a message? One record low was funny, three in a row was hilarious, a new record low for the month of December was ROFL, but now six straight days of record lows during the U.N. COP16 Global Warming conference? That’s galactically inconvenient. The whole month so far has averaged below normal": (Anthony Watts).

And Cancun, Mexico, has touched 10c, a record on 8th. Dec.2010.

Last year during Copenhagen, it was said they need to do their theatre in July. It is too risky in the winter.It is very difficult to ignore this reality.

And this dew point map in Cancun.Interesting how low the dew point is during this spell. Once again water vapor soundly trumps CO2 -:)


I’m starting to believe in this Gaia theory. Seems like she does the opposite of whatever the “experts” predict. Coincidence? Hmmm.

And finally, on a lighter note, a superb Limerick by someone:
Down at the shindig in Mex
Lookin’ forward to sand surf and sex
The delegate’s jaws dropped
When Cancun copped
The coolest of Al Gore Effects

Saturday, December 11, 2010

(New posts on International and Mumbai Weather Pages).

The projected weekend cold has arrived, albeit a day earliar than forecasted in Vagaries (7th. December).
On saturday morning, in the Northern most areas, the Kashmir region minimum temperatures have dipped considerably with Shyok lowest at -23c, Leh dropping to -16c and Srinagar to -5.2c.
In H.P, Kalpa saw -5c, and Simla 3.8c.

Coming Southwards, Delhi fell to 6.2c today morning, yet 1c more than projected.
Punjab state has still to "react" to the cold spell,though nights are around 6/7c, and Amritsar lowest at 5.8c.
But Rajasthan has fallen to expected levels, with Mt. Abu seeing 1.6c and Churu reading 1.9c on Saturday morning. Most cities in Rajasthan are between 7/8c on Saturday.

Across the border. Temperatures showed a sharp fall right upto the Southern coastal city of Karachi, which slid down to 7.6c ! Islamabad recorded 1.7c.

In Mah. the lowest was in Nasik at 10c.
Gujarat: I have my doubts about the genuinity of Nalliya's (Gujarat) readings. The town reads 3c on Saturday morning. Its readings are consistently lower than the regional readings, and maybe the instrument needs re-callibration.
Towns like Rajkot and Amreli in Saurashtra have recorded 8c, and A'hmbad at 9.9c

Mumbai S'Cruz measured upto the forecasted 16c, and Colaba 19c.

Current cold spell expected to last till Tuesday.

The Max. temperature map of 11th. shows the days getting cooler, specially in the Northern and Western regions.

Thursday, December 09, 2010

The erstwhile system from the Bay has now fizzled out in the NE states. But not before precipitating rains all thru A.P, Orissa, Jharkhand and into the NE states thru Bangladesh.
As a result, the season's first snowfall in Arunachal Pradesh occurred at the picturesque Tawang town situated at 14,000 feet above sea level, with the temperature dropping to -3c.
"The entire Tawang town has been covered by about two to three inches of snow this morning," official sources said.

After Friday, 10th. Dec, we may see the rains diminishing in the southern peninsula regions. Weekend rains will be restricted to the NE states.
No more syetms from the Bay in the offing now. And no systems in the west, nor any W.Ds. So its very posssible we may see all of India almost dry by 13th. Dec till at least 16th. December.

As mentioned night temperatures in North-Western, Western and Western parts of Central India are expected to drop by 2/3 c from Sunday12th.Dec.night. Gujarat, western Mah., Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi would feel the effect of cooler nights this weekend.
But, this cooling, which will actually be about 2/3c below normal level, will be back to normal from Tuesday night.
Mumbai Forecast unchanged.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS: A direct Personal Report from Mark Vogan:
"The low at my house stopped at a new all-time low of 3 degrees (-16.1C). My high topped 20 degrees (-6C) which makes for the coldest high of season and second coldest high on record, 2nd only to a 19-degree high on January 8th, 2010.
Whilst at Douglas, South Lanarkshire this morning, my truck was reading -16C, Gretna, Dumfries and Galloway was reading -14C, Edinburgh -14C, Glasgow (officially) -13C but in George Square, Glasgow city centre readings were apparently reading -15.9C. There was reports of areas in South Lanarkshire which were reading -18C whilst diesel was starting to freeze up in buses in Jedburgh in the Borders, Strathallan, Perthshire officially was reading -18C. At just after 10.30am this morning, at home, it was still 7 degrees and at noon, Bishopton, Renfrewshire was still at 14 degrees (-10C). According to BBC Scotland, a trucker had stopped and lit a fire under his fueltank in order to keep the diesel from freezing, I believe this was on the A80 this morning"!

This morning's 3 degree low was an incredible 34 below normal!
Details of U.K. Cold on the Blog here, with amazing pics.

On viewership crossing 50,000, Look Forward to a change in Vagaries

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Rainfall from the depression , 94B, will spread along the eastern shores of India . From Wednesday, 8th. December, the rains will move from A.P. to Orissa and along the coast to W.Bengal and Jharkhand. The heavier falls will be in these states on Thursday. By Friday, the rain pattern will have moved towards the Ganges Delta in Bengal and Bangladesh.

On the Western front, the weakened 95A wiil move into Kerala on Wednesday. Nothing to rave about, but precipitation will be there in the state, and will move Eastwards and NE into South Karnataka and North interior Karnataka by Thursday (9th.), before decreasing. Rains in this Southern peninsula regions will taper off by the weekend. All South Indian states will be dry from Monday.

With no W.D. in sight, Northern Sub-Continent areas will remain dry. We see no W.D. approaching the region till 15th. December.

Western India, Mah, and Gujarat will be dry.
Due to an anticyclone trying to establish itself (in the absence of a W.D.), we see the temperatures falling a bit (on Tuesday, 7th.) in the Northern regions and in Gujarat/Mah. Actually it seems to have fallen, while in reality, the nights have just about reached the normal levels in these areas, after being continuously above the normal.
Nights were around normal to 1c below on Tuesday.

Vagaries predicts these current "normal range temperatures" in Mah/Gujarat/ Rajasthan and Delhi to continue remaining around this range till Saturday.
From Sunday, say for 2/3 nights, we may see the minimums getting cooler (in Northern and Western India incl. Gujarat& Mah.) by around 2/3c from the current temperature range.

Meaning, after the weekend, cities in Punjab could reach 1/2c, Delhi may see 5c. Mumbai may reach 15c, and Nasik/Pune may touch 7c around Monday.In Gujarat, Rajkot and Ahmadabad may drop to10c, and some places in Kutch to 7c.

See Mumbai Weather Page.

Minimum Temperatures of Tuesday, 7th. December.

Lowest in India: Darbuk: -20c, Leh :-15c, Sinagar:-2.7c.
Lowest in the Plains of North: Hissar: 3.2c.

Lowest in hills of South India:Kodaikanal: 9c and lowest in the plains of South: Adilabad:11c.

Lowest in Mah/Gujarat: Nasik: 9c.

Lowest in U.K.: Strathallan: -17c, Glasgow: -13c, Manchester:-8c, London (Heathrow): -2c.

Lowest in Asia: Olenek (Russia): -50c, Agata (Russia): -47c, Underkhaan (Mongolia): -24c.

Lowest in N. America: Eureka (Nunavut): -42c, Fairbanks (Alaska): -31c, Bismarck (N.Dakota): -19c,

Lowest in Greenland: Thule: -21c.

As anticipated, 94B, is lingering in the Bay, and today, 7th. December, is 200 kms SE of Ongole, as a depression. At 1002 mb,and 20-25 knots winds, it is precipitating good rains along the A.P. coast, and interiors of A.P. and North T.N.

It may also bring light rains to eastern Vidharbh tonite, as the outer fringe "alto" clouds of the system has spread and penetrated into Northern interior Karnataka and extreme SE Mah. Solapur got light drizzling rain today in the afternoon.
Vagaries expects the system to travel along the East Indian Coast,due to the ridge axis resistance in the upper air, and just crossing the A.P. coast today evening.
But tracking NE, almost along the coast, it will weaken to some extent.Coastal regions of A.P. and Orissa can expect very good rainfall, with some coastal cities receiving upto 150 mms. in 24 hr period.
The system will in time, say another 3/4 days, rain out in the Ganges delta region of W.Bengal/Bangladesh.

The other low, 95A, will not fulfill its expected "duty", and while refusing to move Northwards, will all but fizzle out in the Kerala region.
Much could not be expected from this at this time of the year.With stiff dry Northerly/NE winds and lowering SSTs, it was getting difficult to move North, along with a discouraging jet stream pushing it east.

Todays world wide lows and Western India, North India and Mumbai forecast will be put up by 10.30 m tonite (sorry for the late postings).

Sunday, December 05, 2010


Europe, China and Asia Coldest in Declared "The Hottest Year".

The cold weather that has descended across Europe has continued to set records.
In the UK, where it had not snowed so early in the year for 17 years, several areas were covered by 2-5 cm of snow, causing chaos for transport. Here, the cold wave continued with a minimum temperature of -20 ° C recorded overnight in the Highlands of Scotland
UK Covered in snow, for the second winter


Along with a stunning satellite image. Well, it has happened again, much earlier this year. See the newest satellite image below.
That’s twice in one year! The previous time was January and now again in December.
But they still want us to believe that 2010 is the hottest year ever! Do they think we are all nuts?
Here’s the money quote:

“According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain’s biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. “It was a bit of a first,” a spokesperson said.”

An it’s not only the UK.

In France, the mercury fell to -15.3 ° C in Orleans.
Airports have been closed, Eurostar traffic disrupted, thousands of trucks stranded on impassable roads, and parts of Europe, from Britain to Italy, paralyzed by the freezing conditions.

In the Netherlands, temperatures ranged between -5 and -8 degrees Wednesday, the coldest December 1st since 1940 and snowfall Monday night caused 871 kilometers of traffic jams on the highways, another historic record.
In Poland the cold wave that hit central Europe has resulted in thirty deaths this week.It dived to -22c in Wroclaw.
In Russia, eleven people have died from cold in Moscow since the beginning of the week, including two in the last 24 hours. In the Russian capital, temperatures have reached a low of -20c on Wednesday last.

The Norwegian Met office reports this is the coldest November on record since the year 1900, where the monthly average for the country is 3.9 C below normal. In the inland, some places where 6-7.5 C below normal.

The Utsira Fyr station located in the middle of the Gulf current south-west of Norway recorded a minimum of -6.2 C, the lowest measured temperature since recordings started in 1867.

Besides Europe, China is also reeling under a cold wave. The country’s northern region is under a heavy snow blanket. The snow fall began 2 days ago and continues unabated.
Temperatures dropped to minus -22c, the lowest this winter.

For the West coast, Scene shifts from 93A to 95A.
93a, which was anyway fading and fizzling out slowly, is now substituted by another low, 95A.
The system to watch now is this new one. Presently at 1010 mb, and with 15 knots winds, it is currently at 6.4N and 66.8E.
Now, in the 28c waters, this low should deepen, and move initially Northwards. Forecast models predict the system to hit the Goa coast around the 12th, as a depression.
I would go by the direction and flow of the jet stream winds. The direction flow of the 200 mb winds on the 8th./9th. would give good indications and guidance to the track this sytem would take.
Todays 200 mb chart is put up above.

The East Coast low is at 10.3N and 80.2E with winds at 15 knots with core pressure at 1010 mb.
Riding on an Easterly wave, Low will linger off the North T.N./South A.P. coast for a couple of days, precipitating good rains along the East Coast right upto South Orissa. It is expected to continue pouring rains in T.N. and along the A.P. coast next couple of days.

Friday, December 03, 2010

Europe Cold Wave Latest on International Page. Space News Updated.


Indian Peninsula with Twin lows on both sides.

In the Arabian Sea, its 93A, with a pressure at 1006 mb and situated at 7N and 62.4E. Winds at 25 knots.
It has shifted slightly east of the previous location,more into warmer waters, and now is elongated and more dis-organised.
Likely track: Initially North.

And in the Bay, 94B, with pressure at 1006 mb, and winds at 15 knots, situated at 5.1N and 89.2 E. Embedded in the monsoon trough, likely to deepen and consolidate, as SST is around 28c in the area.
Likely Track: Will be towards the Sri Lanka and exterme South T.N. coast. And may re-emerge in the Arabian Sea in 2 days.
Latest Position of 93A:


Situated at 8N and 61.3E and core pressure at 1004 mb. Maximum winds at 25 knots. Low pressure shows organising convective formation in the NW quadrant.It is forecasted to persist for a couple of days in warm waters and deepen to some extent.
Projected track still unsure.
Next update at 12 noon on Friday.

Mumbai page updated.

Thursday, December 02, 2010


Alert ! Must keep a watch on 93A. Presently at 7.2N and 62E at 1004 mb. Wind speed 25 knts. Could head towards West Coast of India ?

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Airports closed as Europe shivers in fresh snowfalls

Geneva airport closed last night and won't open before at least 2 p.m. local time after snow covered the city and region.

More heavy snowfalls forced the closure of some of Europe's busiest airports and chaos on the roads Wednesday as forecasters warned there would be no let-up in the freezing temperatures until next week.

"We've had an incredible quantity of snow and it's still falling," said airport spokesman Bertrand Staempfli, who asked passengers with flights before 2 p.m. not to travel to the airport
London's Gatwick Airport, Europe's eighth busiest passenger air hub, was shut until at least 0600 GMT Thursday as staff worked to clear the two runways. Edinburgh Airport, Scotland's busiest, was also shut due to heavy snow showers

Snow, the first fall of it this season, greeted Londoners on Tuesday.

Coldest in Trondheim, Norway, in 222 years

Stockholm experiences its coldest seasonal temperatures for over 100 years this week, according to the Swedish Meteorological Institute (SMHI).

Amongst the Lowest in U.K: Altnaharra -21c, Aviemore -17c, Tulloch Bridge -13c, Glasgow -7c, dinburgh -6c, Manchester -3c and London -2c.
Amongst the Lowest in Germany: Brocken -17c, Oschatz -12c, Leipzig -11c and Hamburg -7c.
Lowest in Norway: Roros -30c and Oslo -16c.
Lowest in Sweden Linkoping -25c and Stockholm -20c.

Lowest in U.S: Fort Yukon -41c, Fairbanks -33c, Mobridge Muni Arpt (Dakota) -17c, Milford -15c and Buffalo and Rapid City -14c.

Link for superb pics:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/essex/hi/people_and_places/nature/newsid_9247000/9247278.stm



Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Temperatures recorded on 30th. November 2010:

Hottest in Asia: Makkah: 36c,
Mumbai Colaba: 34.7c.

Coldest in India: Shyok (Ladakh): -22c,
Leh: -10c.
Coldest in plains of North India:Churu (Rajasthan): 5.8c

Coldest in South India;
Plains: Raichur: 14c, Hills : Kodaikanal: 6c

Coldest in East India:
Plains: Baghdogra: 11c, Hills: Darjeeling: 4c

Coldest in Mah.: Nasik and Mahableshwar: 16c.

Coldest in U.S: Fort Yukon (Alaska): -41c, Garden River (Alberta): -25c, Logan Cache and Milford (Utah): -25c.

Coldest in Europe: Totma (Russia): -37c, Roros (Norway): -27c, Samedan (Switzerland): -24c, Kramfors (Sweden): -22c,
Coldest in U.K: Inverness: -14c.

Coldest in Greenland: Constable Pynt: -11c.
Latest on U.K. Cold Wave on Mark's Blog.
Great Britain CRIPPLED by record-breaking Arctic blast
Read in detail about the chaos in U.K. on our Partner's blog here.

Daily mail link with spectacular pics (taken from Mark's blog).

Sunday, November 28, 2010

See more on this topic from the U.S. side on International Weather Page updated on 30th. November.
Screaming Headlines Throw Out "Global Warming" Hype:

As is known, Vagaries has always been a resolute dis-believer in the so called GW theory. Yes, there's nothing like GW, and its always been the ups and downs of the natural weather patterns. (Have written several blogs on this, against this, to prove the point. Could be refered to in the Vagaries archives of December 2009).

Now, this year, we have cold waves from many parts of the Northern hemisphere.

I'll just put up the headlines of these, instead of a detailed write up.

Record snowfall in 12 states - 23 Nov 10
AK, CA, ID, MN, MT, ND,
NV, OR, SD, UT, WA, WI. Total Number of Records for November 23, 2010. New records: 85 + Tied: 12 = Total: 97

Fierce Record Cold Spreading over
Western Two-Thirds of U.S. - 24 Nov 10
Record lows in California - 24 Nov 10

Further, from Our Partner Blog:
BREAKING WEATHER NEWS
GREAT BRITAIN UNDER WINTER'S SIEGE AS SNOW AND COLD ALL BUT CRIPPLES MOST AREAS, TEMPS DROP TO -18C AND 1-2 FEET OF SNOW FALLS!!!
Several UK locations have reported their coldest November temps on record.
Snow: A shepherd looking for his flock wades through deep snow on Commondale Moor in North Yorkshire as freezing temperatures grip Britain (Image courtesy of The Daily Mail)

WALES: Llysdinam, Powys reported -18C (0F)
SCOTLAND: Loch Glascarnoch, Highlands reported -15.3C (4F)
ENGLAND: Shrewsbury, Shropshire reported -12.5C (10F)
NORTHERN IRELAND: Lough Fea, Co Tyrone reported -9.5 (15F).....Read more in detai on U.K. severe cold on Mark's Blog here.

And the topper, of them all, another IPCC Fantasy thrown out..down the .....

Sea level rise about the thickness of a dime per year:
25 Nov 10 - According to new GRACE satellite results, world average sea level rise is about 1 millimeter per year, or about 0.04 of an inch.

"The low end of IPCC forecasts is about double that at 1.9 mm/year," says Steven Goddard. "Hansen has been talking about 30+ mm/year. Once again the experts demonstrate that they have no clue what they are talking about."

Consisting of a pair of satellites moving in an orbit that takes them over the South and North Poles, GRACE stands for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment.

One millimeter is about the thickness of a dime. Take 100 dimes, stack them on top of each other, and that's how much sea level should rise in the next 100 years. Four inches. Four INCHES!

And, If the results hold up to scrutiny, then that’s a big chink in AGW alarmism.

Ocean temperatures are plummeting and are below normal.
See any red? or even Oranges ?? And, remember, oceans consist 0f 75% of the Earth's surface. Looked at ocean heat content figures lately ? They’ve flat-lined since 2003! A check of recent satellite sea-level figures is revealing too!
Levels are now only a fraction above minimums in 2003 and given current cooling trends may even drop below them shortly!

Don't go by the media reports, my friends, they are only doing their job, hype up things, hype them totally out of proportions !!

Space News Page Updated.



Thought it fit to re-produce this very interesting weather fact from Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather:

309,959,570 Lightning Strikes in Six Months:


Vaisala, the original lightning detection company that I have profiled before, sent this map showing nearly 310 million lightning strikes on Earth (specifically 309,959,570, they tell me) in the last six months via their Global Lightning Dataset:
The map looks similar to those from NASA's satellite estimates, but because it's only 6 months of data, it doesn't line up perfectly, and these are ground-based, not satellite sensors.

Friday, November 26, 2010


What happened in November ?

Unusual rain prevailed across the central and western parts of the country (besides the normally expected southern regions).
The last 15 days gave a good preview of what can happen with un-symetrical weather patterns. Much of W.Maharashtra/Goa/coastal Karnatak/Rajasthan had 24 hr. soakings measuring between 30-100 mms in places: just to show what a good low can do!

The (un)favourable weather patterns which has been building had held sway, particularly, in the western parts of the country and with the ability, intermittently, to expand its influence to the north-west, but unmatching of what would be considered a typical scenario for November.

At the same time reflecting the ability of the persisting La Nina in the Pacific to influence our local early-season cloud patterns. La Nina offers both strengthened anticyclonic presence and influence in the South Pacific. The inability to pick more surface-layer moisture and proceed inland, where southern India is concerned,is made apparent.


What had been observed was the gradual shift to the west of the rain-belt. One can say that this is not typical sample of “November” weather, as normally in November, the rain pattern builds and extends across the interior of southern states from the eastern coast, reacting and responding to daytime heat creating and sustaining a weak area of low pressure above the interiors of southern India.
Also typically un-November, this development was subject to considerable push from the south west (along the west coast ) by systems from the Arabian Sea, as these battled with the anticyclone in Northern India.

What’s coming?
Overall, the favourable weather pattern seems to be returning to normalcy from the weekend.
Early next week there is a tendency for the prevailing pattern to retreat as Northerly to North-Westerly winds are setting in over Northern Sub-Continent. Later on,. by midweek, the outlook improves and colder air could settle over the NW region of the sub-continent.

No W.Ds seen coming to Northern Sub-Continent region in the next 5 days at least.
With no interfereance now from the southerly systems, W.D.s are welcome to return, and usher in the North Indian winter.

In the south, the low has formed in the Gulf of Mannar, and the incursion of moisture as a result will bring in precipitation into T.N. riding on the easterlies.

Check Mumbai Weather Page for Forecast.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Continuing from yesterday, the rains decreasing along the western sector has started, and the increase along the east coast is becoming effective.
The low anticipated in yesterday's write-up in the east has formed off the east coastof Sri lanka.

Heavy rains are recorded in T.N. as a result of the easterly wave.
Some of the heavier falls in cms: Pamban 16, Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt) and Rameshwaram (Ramanathapuram dt) 11 each, R.S.Mangalam (Ramanathapuram dt), Ramanathapuram and Tondi 9 each and Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt) 7.

See International Page for big freeze in U.K.
Flash From Partner's Blog. Read the full story on the Blog here , and always put up in the Link on the Home Page.

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

BOTH USA/CANADA AND NOW UK IN THE ICEBOX!

Record low of 14 degrees for Nov. 24 recorded at Sea-Tac Airport
The Seattle Times


Interior Norway and Sweden enduring -10 to -19C daytime maximums, nights dip to -32C!
Great Britain begins to feel those Arctic winds blow, conditions set to worsen with first the snow, then the cold

By Mark Vogan