Sunday, September 30, 2018


    India’s State Capitals / UT Seasonal SWM Rainfall list from 01-06-2018 to 30-09-2018


Mumbai tops the list! Below is top to bottom State Capitals seasonal performance.
=====================
in mms


     1.  Mumbai, MH - 2240
     2.  Gangtok, SK - 2199                                    
     3.  Panaji, GA - 2133
     4.  Dehradun, UK - 2113
     5.  Silvassa, DN - 2057
     6.  Itanagar, AR - 1989
     7.  Port Blair, AN - 1800
     8.  Daman, DD - 1709
     9.  Bhubaneshwar, OD - 1567
     10. Aizawl, MZ - 1394
     11. Diu, DD - 1368
     12. Kohima, NL - 1317
     13. Shimla, HP - 1303
     14. Lucknow, UP - 1294
     15. Kolkata, WB - 1223
     16. Thiruvananthapuram, KL - 1168
     17. Shillong, ML - 1096
     18. Ranchi, JH - 1089
     19. Raipur, CG - 1077
     20. Chandigarh, HR -993
     21. Vijayawada, AP - 993
     22. Agartala, TR - 959
  23. Bhopal, MP - 807
  24. Guwahati, AS - 804
  25. New Delhi, DL - 757
  26. Ludhiana, PB - 686
  27. Imphal, MN - 686
  28. Jaipur, RJ - 625
  29. Patna, BR - 578
  30. Bengaluru, KA - 565
  31. Aminidivi, LD - 495
  32. Chennai, TN - 441
  33. Hyderabad, TS - 419
  34. Puducherry, PY - 369
  35. Gandhinagar, GJ - 346
  36. Srinagar, JK - 220


Few inputs helped by Vagarian Rohit

Data courtesy IMD


Maharashtra's Top 12 Stations SWM Seasonal Rainfall with Ghat sections and Mumbai surroundings seasonal maps

Maharashtra Seasonal SWM Rainfall Toppers from 01-06-2018 to ending till 8.30 am on 30-09-2018
=====================
in mms


1. Lamaj, Mahabaleshwar - 7728
2. Shirgaon, Mulshi - 7580
3. Tamhini, Mulshi - 7460
4. Kitwade, Aajra - 7255
5. Davdi, Mulshi - 7240
6. Amboli, Sawantwadi - 6875
7. Tapola, Mahabaleshwar - 6382
8. Mahabaleshwar - 6143
9. Ambone, Mulshi - 6030
10. Navaja, Patan - 5956
11. Revachiwadi, Gaganbawda - 5917
12. Dajipur, Radhanagari - 5836

Top 12 list compilation by Abhijit 



Maharashtra's Western Ghats Seasonal Rainfall Map below




Mumbai MMR Seasonal Rainfall Map below


Above both Maps made by Tejas & it's data compiled by Abhijit









Mumbai Lakes Data by Richa Pinto TOI


Poor Sept Rainfall creates some record. 

Dahanu has broken it's all time record of driest September ever, as Dahanu in Sep 2018 has recorded mere 20.8 mms rainfall in whole month! With this broken Sep month ATR of 25.4 mms which was recorded in year 1952! So new driest record is set after 66 yrs.


Mumbai witnessed 4th driest September this year!

Lowest monthly rainfall in Sep (below 100 mm) at Santacruz & Colaba are as follow:

1. In 1987, SCZ saw driest Sep ever with mere 35 mms!!
2. 1986 saw 39 mms
3. 1991 saw 59 mms
4. And now current 2018 saw 73.1 mms!
5. 2000 saw 79 mms
         6. 1968 saw 88 mms



1. In 1987, Colaba saw driest Sep ever with mere 34 mms!!
2. 1896 saw 41 mms
3.  1991 saw 57 mms
4.  And now current 2018 saw 59.5 mms!
5.1986 saw 99 mms






Saturday, September 29, 2018

Posted 29th Night:

IMD has announced today the withdrawal of the South West Monsoon from West Rajasthan and Kutch..

Vagaries, as per Withdrawal criteria, sees the monsoon already withdrawn from Rajasthan, North Gujarat, Punjab,and Haryana and Delhi.

Withdrawal pattern will now continue thru M.P. West U.P. and Gujarat region next 3/4days.

A Low, AS-1,is expected to form in the SE Arabian Sea around the 5th/6th of October.As per present indications, expected to strengthen and track NW.

Mumbai will see stray thunder showers Sunday/Monday. Heavy thunder shower expected on Tuesday.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Today evening Heavy Thunderstorm lashed some parts of N. Konkan including South Mumbai.


In Mumbai, especially downtown part from Colaba to Mahalaxmi/Byculla belt was lashed with heavy Thunderstorm rain for hour period with heavy vertical lightning strikes & loud thundering.


Some rainfall in mms till 8.30pm today:

Grant rd 39
Marine lines & Nariman point 33
Colaba IMD 32.4
Mumbai CSMT 31 
Malabar hill 29
Sandhusrt rd 24
Byculla 23
Mahalaxmi(Vagaries) 22
Mumbai Central 14
Haji ali 13
Sewree 9
Currey rd 4
Parel 2.5

Data from IMD & BMC AWS


Below lightning shots capture by Vagarian Salil from Dadar



Mumbai's outer eastern suburbs like Panvel & Dombivli also witnessed moderate to heavy Thunderstorm and rest Mumbai suburbs had just lightning & thunder show with cool gusty winds which brought bit a relief from sultry hot conditions.

Badlapur saw huge lightning & thundering show with many vertical strikes in vicinity and witnessed thick drops drizzling with gusty cool winds.


Below lightning capture by Vagarian Abhijit from Badlapur




Nagothane in Raigad dist was lashed by severe Thunderstorm Rain with squally winds and Hailstorm too as CB cloud height shoot more than 18km tall there !


Abizer Kachwala sends pic of tree fallen down due to squally winds





Some rainfall amounts as of 27th morning: Minicoy (Ldweep) 73 mms , Mangalore (Kar) 42 mms,Ratnagiri (Mah) 57 mms, Kolhapur (Mah) 40 mms, Sangli ( Mah) 24 mms, Harnai (Mah) 23 mms.
Bangalore City 32 mms. Crosses the September normal rain amount of 222 mms..

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Posted 26th September Afternoon:

Seeing the changes in the 200 level winds, OLR images, UTH images and winds at 850 levels, we can assume South West Monsoon has withdrawn from Rajasthan and Saurahtra/Kutch.

Assuming that the anti cyclone will cover NW India/Central India, South West Monsoon is set to withdraw from Punjab, Haryana , Delhi in the next 2 days. 
Warmer days for Delhi.

Next 3 days, 26th/27th/28th....Rain and thunder showers will occur in Ghats region and coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Maharashtra , Coastal A.P. and West Interior Tamil Nadu.
Possibility of Thundershowers expected in Bangalore 


Mumbai: Wednesday/Thursday / Friday and Saturday: Sunny periods of heat in the day. Partly cloudy at times. Light rains likely in some parts of city at times.

Pune: likely to witness thundershowers in the evenings till Saturday.

Monday, September 24, 2018


Whole Konkan coast of Maharashtra & Goa including Mumbai seeing one of weak monsoon since Aug. No typical revival was seen after third week of July till now due to absence of off-shore trough formation or vortex formation as all systems from Bay, either fizzled over MP or moved N/NE over Delhi/UP region and also dry winds were prominent on mid-level in same period! So no revival was seen in Aug-Sep. Even current BB-11 has moved north, which is causing flooding in HP/PB area! And Mumbai/west coast belt remain eluded!


As Vagarian Rohit has shared interesting data of Mumbai in 100 days of Monsoon 2018 on 8th Sep 2018 post, so from it taken this Sep Mumbai rainfall data.

Lowest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years are as follow:
In Yr.1987, saw driest September with mere 35 mms!!
Yr.1986 saw 39 mms
Yr.1991 saw 59 mms
Yr.2000 saw 79 mms
Yr.1968 saw 88 mms

Current year 2018, September has recorded 62.5 mms till today in SCZ, so is not driest month but may be joining lowest Sep rainfall list. Till today sitting on 4th driest but still 5 days in hand so may be not come under top 5 driest Sep as still some TS chances persist which may be of hit & miss nature as always so if gets 1 or 2 hit TS spells in SCZ observatory area then may cross triple digit mark total for Sep month so let’s hope for the best!


Driest September for Colaba was in 1896 with just 41.1 mms recorded in whole month period! Current year 2018, September has recorded mere 23.5 mms till today in Colaba, hope it doesn't turn out to be driest Sep!!


Driest September for Dahanu was in 1952 with just 25.4 mms recorded in whole month period! Current year 2018, September has recorded mere 20.8 mms till today in Dahanu, hope it doesn't turn out to be driest Sep!!


Colaba & Dahanu driest data input  from Rajesh Sir

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Posted 20th Thursday Night:

BB-11 , Estimated at  996 mb, now a deep depression,almost a cyclone (As per IMD norms, cyclone is classified with a core wind  speed of 34-47 knots, corresponding to 62-88 kmph,as estimated wind speed now average around 30-33 knts as per various agencies. DVORAK estimates winds at 30 knts.
The Southern segment shows very deep convective clouds. North is milder convection.
Location 18.2N and 86.3E...tracking Westwards now and expected to cross the A.P. /Odisha coast tonite.

Tracking W/NW,very heavy rainfall expected in Telengana on Friday and Marathwada on Saturday.Heavy showers on Friday in Hyderabad.

Interior Maharashtra Madhya Maharashtra will get thundershowers, including Konkan.

Mumbai will see increased thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Cloudy, Thunder showers and occasional showers in Pune  till Monday.Cool day with 24c max on Saturday.
Thunder Showers also likely in Outer Townships of Mumbai.

Fizzling out to UAC on centre reaching M.P.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Posted Wednesday 19th September Night:

The system, BB-11, now  a well marked low, estimated at 17.5N and 87.9E, East of Vizag. Estimated core pressure is 998 mb and estimated winds at 25-30 knts in the Southern segment of the system BB-11.


Due low resistance, it will develop into a Depression and proceed to a Deep Depression stage by 21st. Around 21st morning, BB-11 will cross the Odisha Coast.


Heavy rains likely in Odisha and Northern A.P. next two days.


The system will be short lived and will fizzle out into a Low within 24 hrs. Low will travel W/NW into Chattisgarh and East M.P.

An UAC will ultimately fizzle out over North M.P.

Heavy rains likely in M.P. on Friday and Saturday. 


Delhi :Heavy and occasional showers on Saturday/Sunday.Increase in weekend rain intensity.

Jabalpur; Showers and windy Friday.

Mumbai: Occasional Showers in the city on Thursday (10-20 mms) and Friday (15-25 mms). Rainfall increasing on Saturday and Sunday.

Thunder Showers will be prevalent in interior Maharashtra's Madhya Mah.regions from Friday thru next 8 days.

Satellite images of OLR and UTH and upper winds indicate the withdrawal of the South West Monsoon from West Rajasthan and Kutch and  Southern/Central Sindh.


Saturday, September 15, 2018

One more wonderful analysis on cyclone activity for us written by Vineet Kumar Singh (Vagarian)


An overview of cyclone activity in northern hemisphere from 1 January 2018 to 15 September 2018.

Click here for Doc


Monday, September 10, 2018


A well compiled and exhaustive article on the subject 
written by Vineet Kumar Singh (Vagarian)

Vineet has worked very hard for this analysis...A must read for all Meteorologists.

Causes and Analysis of the Below Normal Hurricane Activity in North Atlantic during June -August 2018.

 Click here for Doc

 Click here for Pdf

Saturday, September 08, 2018

8 September ..100 days of Monsoon 2018

Mumbai SCZ 2194 mms with 63 rainy days
( The far eastern townships of MMR have received upto 3500 mms with 80 rainy days and the surrounding ghats more than 7000 ) 

A) THE FIRST v/s NEXT 50 ..
Mumbai SCZ had a contrasting monsoon season so far (like 2013)..
The first 50 days had 1885 mms of rains..
The next 50 had just 309  ..

Vihar(8 kms straight line distance from Mumbai SCZ) had 2788 mms during first 50 days , 570 mms during next 50 days ..(Vihar 3360 mms)

The temps have been normal to slightly below normal though throughout the season at Mumbai..Lowest min 21.2 c , Lowest max 26.2 c 

Past few days have been breezy with partly cloudy skies and temps of 31 c / 24 c at SCZ(afternoon hum around 65% ) .
Brilliant September skies over North Mumbai today

The deccan plateau is cooler with Pune at 26.5 c /18.6 c during past 24 hrs . 
Aurangabad was 30 c / 18.6 c with pretty low afternoon humidity around 40 % .

The western ghats(Sahyadri) are generally cloudy with pretty cool temps of 21 c / 18 c.
 Around beautiful Sahyadri today morning (pic courtesy : Abhishek Apte)


Cold , foggy Mahabaleshwar @18 c  today afternoon (pic courtesy : Abhishek Apte)

B) SEPTEMBER RAIN
In contrast to the last 2 Septembers recording good rains , this September has been dry at Mumbai with the odd showers till now .
It needs to be seen how much the thunderstorms towards month end will add to the monthly total ,currently at mere 28 mms..

Lowest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years  ..
1987 .. 35 mms , 1986 .. 39 mms , 1991 .. 59 mms 2000..79 mms , 1968 ..88 mms 

Highest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years  ..
1993 .. 905 mms , 1981 .. 821 mms , 2005 .. 744 mms 2016..712 mms , 2017 ..603 mms 
(All time record 1954.. 920 mms )


C) THE LATEST UPDATED MONSOON AVERAGES
Mumbai SCZ during the last 19 years (21st century)..
  • more than 3000 mms of annual rains : 5 times 
  • less than 2000 mms of annual rains : 2 times 
Mumbai SCZ(western suburbs) latest monsoon averages of the 21st century 
..(Eastern suburbs average 10-30 % higher rains)

D) THE TOPPERS
Because of it's scintillating performance at the top of the order , Mumbai SCZ still tops the highest rain capital list.
The top improvers during the second half of the season have been Dehradun with 1400 mms and Gangtok 1150 mms during past 50 days ..
  • Highest rain state capitals
1) Mumbai 2194 .. 2) Panji 2096 .. 3) Gangtok 2014.. 4) Dehradun 1895 .. 5) Port Blair 1567 

  • India .. Top 10 most populated cities (rain in mms)


Thursday, September 06, 2018

Posted Thursday Night...6th September:

1. The winds, anti cyclone , at 850 levels, changing directions and indications at 200 level. OLR & UTH scene and poor cross equtorial winds, indicate the start of the withdrawal of the current South West Monsoon season from Western half of Pakistan. 



We await the fizzling out ofthe BB-10 (depression as on Thursday) , and then announce the withdrawal from Pakistan and Western Rajasthan and Kutch, around 10th/12th September. Gujarat region can estimate withdrawal after 20th.

2. BB-10 being extremely active on Odisha on Wednesday and Thursday. Some really heavy rains in Odisha in last 24 hrs:Bhubaneswar city-104mm
 Earsama-435mm
Paradip-412mm,Kujanga-375mm, Kendrapada-340mm
Marsaighai-336mm, Mohakaalapada-320mm
Pattamundei-311mm, Derabis-298mm
Bari-271mm, Tirtol-260mm
Salipur-245mm, Bingarpur-242mm
Gardapur-240mm, Aul-226mm
Ragunathpur-211mm, Alipingal-209mm
Jagatsingpur-195mm, Jajpur-190mm.
System will weaken and track W/NW and fizzle out over West M.P. by 9th.But good rainfall expected in M.P. next 2 days.
Some places in East Vidharbh will get sharp showers.

Forecast for 7th Friday/ 7th Saturday and 9th Sunday

Jabalpur: Generally cloudy skies with moderate showers. Decreasing rains from 9th .
New Delhi: Cloudy skies, with some showers in some parts of the Capital.Rains decreasing from 10th . We see Monsoon withdrawal from extreme West Rajasthan around 10th. Depending on the axis, the anticyclone and OLR positions , we may estimate the withdrawal from Delhi around 20th September.

Mumbai: Friday/Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with warm sunshine. Few showers in some  parts of the city

Kolkata: Cloudy with showers on Friday. Few showers in parts of city on Saturday/Sunday.

Saturday, September 01, 2018




MONSOON REPORT (1-6-2018 to 31-8-2018)










TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-8-2018)


668.7 mm
SEASON +/-



-6.40%






TO ACHIEVE BY 30th SEPTEMBER



required in mm
MINIMUM 700 mm

1.04
AVERAGE 890 mm

7.38
MAXIMUM 1100 mm

14.38






CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY



7.27 mm






ALL INDIA SUBDIVISIONAL RAINFALL FIGURES




SUBDIVISION

ACTUAL NORMAL DEP+/-



mm mm %
KERALA

2428.9 1795.4 35%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH

486.6 422.0 15%
S. I. KARNATAKA

576.4 519.0 11%
TELANGANA

660.5 597.8 10%
ODISHA

1004.1 913.2 10%
JAMMU & KASHMIR

477.8 442.5 8%
KONKAN & GOA

2762.6 2569.3 8%
COASTAL KARNATAKA

2969.9 2782.9 7%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA

613.4 576.9 6%
CHHATTISGARH

957.8 937.8 2%
VIDARBHA

791.4 785.6 1%
WEST UTTAR PRADESH

617.4 620.9 -1%
MARATHWADA

503.1 518.7 -3%
UTTARAKHAND

991.2 1022.2 -3%
HIMACHAL PRADESH

656.0 685.3 -4%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH

674.3 705.7 -4%
EAST RAJASTHAN

492.6 516.1 -5%
A & N ISLAND

1173.3 1250.1 -6%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY

185.0 201.4 -8%
EAST UTTAR PRADESH

641.6 700.3 -8%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH

768.2 851.2 -10%
PUNJAB

344.4 400.8 -14%
GUJARAT REGION

649.2 754.7 -14%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL

756.0 888.4 -15%
N M M T

1004.7 1207.2 -17%
WEST RAJASTHAN

182.2 221.9 -18%
BIHAR

658.0 803.6 -18%
SHWB & SIKKIM

1287.7 1596.2 -19%
N. I. KARNATAKA

286.6 360.0 -20%
HAR. CHD & DELHI

293.7 385.3 -24%
JHARKHAND

642.8 847.9 -24%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH

301.7 401.5 -25%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA

1024.1 1466.5 -30%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH

909.7 1396.4 -35%
RAYALASEEMA

150.1 265.2 -43%
LAKSHADWEEP

478.8 835.4 -43%






TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2018 to 31-8-2018)



49 (53%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2018 to 31-8-2018)



43 (47%)
















SOURCE IMD

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