Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Unusually Cold In Karnataka and Andhra! (Its end Feb)


Surprise ! South Interior Karnataka is facing a cold wave. Below normal night temperatures have been recorded in the region since the last 2 days, and today (Tuesday) morning saw Mysore at 11c (-8c), Hasan also at 11c (-5c) and Chamarajanagar at 12c. Medikeri bottomed 8c which is 7c below normal. Agumbe saw 10c.
In the Norhthern parts of Karnataka too the nights were very cool. Belgaum saw 13c (-4c) and Raichur was at 15c which is 5c below normal.


However, the irony is that the day temperatures are marginally above normal fro these places. In fact, Manglore soared to 38.2c (+6c), unusually high for the place, and equaling its previous high for February. But the nights were better at 21c (-2c). 


Though Bangalore shot to 35.4c (+4c) today, the nights are in tow with the rest of the state, slightly below normal. It was 16c in the city on Tuesday morning. The February record for Bangalore (city) is 35.9c and for the airport it 35.0c as the highest evr for February.


Adjoining areas of A.P. too were in the below normal range at night. Rayalseema regions of the state saw Anantpur at 15c (-6c), Cuddapah 17c (-6c) and Tirupati A.P. at 16c (-5c).


Monday, February 27, 2012

Highest in India on Monday was 38.5c at Akola. Along with Prome (Myanmar) these were the hottest in Asia on Monday.


Sunday's  "freak" 40.1c at Bhubaneshwar (freak because it was back to 37c today on Monday) just happened to "upset" my 40c "setting" for the mid week. -:)) 


Anyway, it was also very hot in Mahableshwar, the hill station being 32.6c, a good 6c above, and classified as a Heat wave condition.
Mumbai is trodding along the expected 35-18 range.


F-4 has moved completely into India on Monday, and as mentioned, the system is weak, and has precipitated very little amountds in Kashmir and H.P.Just 4 mms in Kupwara and 1 mm in Gulmarg.


Forecast for Tuesday, 28th Feb/Wednesday 29th/ and Thursday 1st March; 

Refer to point No 3, of Sunday's weekly forecast, which will be taking effect: 


The NW winds regime is definitly going to gain strength from Tuesday. Strong NW winds will sweep the entire Gujarat region and North Mah. and the Sindh coast in Pakistan, from Tuesday.
Wednesday will see the NW winds gaining more and will be gusty over Saurashtra and Kutch.

Windy (NW) on Tuesday and Gusty in Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday/ Thursday and Friday. Will keep day temperatures in the 32/33c range in Rajkot and Surat. 


Mumbai: Tuesday onwards, NW winds dominating will keep the day temperatures around 33c at S'Cruz and 30/31c at Colaba. Nights will be around 18c at S'Cruz. The next 2/3 days temperature should be in the normal range for this time, i.e. at 33c - 18c.
Pune: Almost in line to our weekly forecast put up on Sunday. Being more in the "calm" range last few days, Pune too will get NW winds from Tuesday, which will bring the days down to 34c from the current 36c. Nights, I expect will fall to 11c next 2/3 days.


Nagpur: Continues with a slight rise in the current 36-19c range for 2 more days, that is Tuesday and Wednesday. Akola or some Vid station could reach 40c mid week as expected.
Friday, stiff NW winds will lower the day temperature to 34c and Friday night will be cooler by a couple of degrees.


Delhi: The currently blowing NW winds in Delhi will sober down from Wednesday. Wednesday/thursday and friday will see a rise in day temperatures to 27/28 levels. Nights will also rise from the current 9c level to around 13c from Thursday morning.


Karachi: In the 29 - 12c range now, maybe a cooler day on Tuesday with strong W winds blowing for a day. Rise in temepratures from Wednesday to 31c. 
Sukkar has already reached 29c on Monday, almost 5 days before our forecatsed date. Not much effect of F-3 has shown a rise in the temperatures early. Should stabilise to 26/27c till Friday, after which the days will get warm again.
Islamabad will tend to warm up this week from Tuesday, gradually, till Western Disturbance M-1 arrives on Saturday, 3rd March.


A few days back, we had read an article in newspapers (from NASA ) on the "Vagaries" group on FB, about "Cloud tops dropping closer to Earth "– ..Read about it and Vagaries' views on The Global Warming Hysteria Page....

Excessive Rain in Australia and rare Tornado in Indonesia..Read on Mark's Blog.
vagaries view: Could be due to the La-Nina keeping its strength intact as yet !!

Sunday, February 26, 2012

At least this week's Weekly Forecast starts off well...Wind Rain and Blowing Sand in Dubai Sunday Morning at 10 am..see pic on inter active Page sent by Jignesh from Dubai..
and more pics here of Sharjah ..

Bhubaneshwar (Orissa) touches 40.1c on Sunday, 26th Feb.2012. Becomes the first 40 of the season in India. Bhubaneshwar was was also the first place to touch 40 in 2009, on 25th Feb that year.



Saturday, February 25, 2012

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 26th Feb to   4th  March.

1. A feeble W.D. F-4, will be passing over Northern most Pakistan on Sunday/Monday and over Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. on Monday/Tuesday. System will be weak and moving Eastwards fast. No effect over Nepal.

2. In Gujarat and interior Mah, days will rise slowly on Monday 27th Feb, thru Wednesday 29th,  Possibility of Vidharbh region achieving the first 40c of the season around mid week.
Steady  temperatures  in Sindh and Punjab regions of Pakistan  including Islamabad, till Tuesday 28th.

3. N/NW winds will prevail over the NW region of India and Gujarat and coastal and interior Mah, areas on Wednesday/Thursday.  
A 2 day drop in temperatures to some extent (by 3/4c) will effect the NW, Gujarat and Mah. regions on Wed 29th and Thursday 1st March.. Fall in temperatures in Sindh and Punjab areas of Pakistan also these 2 days (Wed/Thurs).
Day and night temperatures start rising from Friday 2nd March, again.

4. A prominent "High" remains dominant over the Arabian Sea throughout the week. Result, Westrly winds over Sindh Coast and Kutch.

5. No rains or effective system in South this week. But, a sharp rise in day temperatures from Tuesday seen over Northern and Coastal A.P. Possibility of 40c touching in Kurnool or  Ramagundam mid week.

So, the first 40c could be the case next week (mid week) either in Vidarbha or Northern A.P.

In short, for almost all regions of the plains of the Sub-continent, a gradual rise in temperatures till Wednesday. Wed and Thursday will be cooler by 3/4c. Again a shoot up from Friday reaching 40c in Vidharbha or A.P.

City Forecasts for the week:

Mumbai: No question of any major heat wave like last week. No chance pf a 39c again this week. I expect much less fluctuations in the coming week.
Days will be a moderate and steady 33/34c at S'Cruz and 32c at Colaba almost thru the next week.
Nights will be 17/18c initially till Tuesday morning at S'Cruz, and then around 19c thru the week. Slight clouding covering 20% of sky on Mon/Tuesday.

Pune: South winds will keep Pune warm till Tuesday around 36c and 14c range. But Northern winds from Wed will cool down the temperatures to 32c and 12c on Wed/Thursd.

Delhi NCR: Windy (NW) days will keep the days around 22/23c till Wednesdasy. A rise in day temperatures from Thursday, with the day rising to 31c by Friday. Nights too will start showing a rise from Wednesday and may go up to 14c from the current 10/11c range.

Bharuch: A gradual rise in day temperatures from Monday to Wednesday. Days to rise to 35c . But a slight relief on Wed and Thursday as the winds turn NW.  A drop in temps by 3/4c on these 2 days.

Karachi: temperatures will be in the 28 -12c range till Tuesday. Strong Westerlies on Tuesday. Rise in day temperatures from Thursday reaching 31c by Thursday/Friday.

Sukkar: Day temperatures will be slightly on the rise from the current 24 09 levels till Tuesday. Wed and Thursday will see a marginal fall in temps by 3/4c. Again, the rise starts from Friday with the day reaching 29c by next weekend .

Kathmandu: Though it will be dry in the week, Not much rise from the current 27c is seen, and the lows would aslo be around 5c.

Dubai gets rain on Sunday and Monday due to F-4. Night temperature dropping to 16/17c on Tuesday. Rising subsequently.

Vagaries' last weekly forecast went quite "haywire" and was only 35% correct. erratic and unpredictable behaviour of F-3 was the main reason.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

A New Page has been added to Vagaries today.
"Global Warming Hysteria", aptly named, as it will cover the various facts, weather events and happenings all around the world which are and will not be published elsewhere, as they may be as per "anti GW theories".

…and yet, all we hear about is alleged warming. 
Vagaries will try and cover the "uncovered Stories on the so called GW from all over the World..Please visit this Page regularly, as it will be updated every Thursday and Monday..Remember, update yourselves every Thursday and Monday..

Read the first Article on this Page...Sure you will find this new Page interesting and informative. Please express your views freely ..and put in your comments.

Rare Pelicans starving – Can’t reach fish in frozen Caspian Sea

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

See Kathmandu Report from Neeraj on Inter Active Page


The baked Mah. coast at last had some relief on Wednesday.
Mumbai and Ratnagiri, which sizzled at 39c on Tuesday, at long last got its due of NW winds, and as a result saw the day "drop" to 35c at S'Cruz and 36c at Ratnagiri. In fact, Colaba daytime temp fell to 32c on Wednesday. NE winds of the previous days finally reverted to NW. 


Mumbai could still be around 34/35c on Thursday and Friday (S'Cruz), with the nights hovering at 16-18c till Thursday and Friday.


Akola  (Mah) was the highest in India (and Asia) on Wednesday recording 38.5c. I see a 40c by the month end in Vidarbha (Akola or Nagpur). 


But, F-3 is feeble, in fact it has almost fizzled out and is now getting pulled away towards the NE by high altitude (200/300 hpa level). Vagaries' Sunday forecast of the cooling effect resulting from F-3 is almost nil.


The system in fact did not really gain much nor did it strengthen from Tuesday as expected. The real "cold wave effect" from this system may not materialise after all. I mean the lows forecasted (On Sunday) for Mumbai (15/16) or Delhi (9/10) and Karachi (8/9) was far fetched. 


Mumbai did not go below 18c and Delhi stuck to 14c.Karachi managed 11c. We had over estimated the capacity of the system to strengthen from Tuesday.


Entire Punjab/Haryana and Delhi region will remain dry and in fact see some moderate cooling from Friday.
Next W.D.(could be weak) is due around 1st week of March.


For Pune, we had not anticipated any fall in temps. Pune will continue to heat up with unrelenting South winds. Nights will be pleasant on Thursday and Friday at 11c. Day will be hot at 35/36c till Friday, after that a slight fall in day temps possible. 


Things worked out entirely differently for Nepal. F-3 did not gain enough to move into Nepal. There was no meaningful precipitation in Nepal, and Kathmandu remained dry.Temps are in the 25 - 7c range. The  capital will be dry and hot next few days, with no W.D. likely to effect the city soon.


SOLAR ECLIPSE from Space....see Space News Page.: 

Tuesday, February 21, 2012




It was hot ! Mumbai S'Cruz was hot on 21st, with the mercury scaling to 39.1c as the high. 
However,35 kms downtown, Colaba was at 35.2c as the highest today. What a contrast, 4c between the two stations on 21st Feb. And the expected  declaration ! Mumbai was the highest in Asia on Tuesday.


I Would attribute the rise in temperature to a sticky and unrelenting NE breeze "regime". In spite of very strong westerly winds dominating the N. Gujarat and Kutch regions, it has, surprisingly not been able to "cut off" the NE winds below this westerly belt.
The NE winds are blowing in a narrow corridor from land to sea over North Konkan. See chart here.


A wind shear "barrier" prevents the N/NW winds from penetrating below the Gujarat region today.This has resulted in intense heat over the Konkan coast, with Ratnagiri also recording 39c today.  
Hopefully it would retrieve and allow NW winds into the Konkan belt by Wednesday.


Traditionally hot  Akola was 38.5c today.




However, some consolation for Mumbaites: 
Highest ever in Feb was 39.6c on 25th Feb 1966 at S'Cruz and 38.3c in Colaba on 28th 1949.


Remember, public memory is short...it was in 2006, only 6 years back, that we saw a very hot February. And that too was spreading heat almost all over the Southern, Central and Northern regions of India.


That year, In 2006, heat began from early Feb itself for Mumbai, with the temp shooting to 37.5c on 2nd Feb and again on 4th Feb. On that date, Goa was 36.2c and Surat 36.2c.


By 20th Feb 2006,  we had  Akola at 39.7c, Bhubaneshwar 38.7c, Indore 37.5c, Mumbai 36.2c, Pune 36.4c, Simla's low was 12.5c, and it was the "warmest" night (highest low) ever  for Feb. 


On 22nd Feb 2006, Akola touches 40.5c. Incidently, as per records maintained by Vagaries, this is the earliest date to touch 40c, anywhere in India, since 1979. and 40c has not been recorded in Feb since.
Other places on 22nd Feb 2006 were: Bhubaneshwar 38.6c,Nagpur 38.1c,  Bhopal 37.3c,  Kurnool 37.6c, Aurangabad 36.6c, Surat 36.8c, and Delhi Palam 33.1c,


In Fact, Nagpur's highest Feb temp ever was 39.2c on 24th Feb 2006. When, on that day in 2006, Mumbai was S'Cruz @ 37.6 and Colaba @ 36.9c


A look at this Chart of the 2006 winter, shows the graph going "Red" straight away from early Feb.






So, take solace in the fact, 2006 was far hotter. In fact, Feb 2012 was much cooler and better off till the 20th.Should surely improve very soon !


Monday, February 20, 2012

As explained in the weekly forecast, F-3 is taking its own time to "settle down" and move ahead. 
On Monday, F-3 precipitated rain/snow in Northern Pakistan, with several palces recording between 10 - 35 mms of rain, and snow in the Northern mountains. 
Islamabad too had traces of rain with the temp in the 15 - 6c range. 
Karachi saw a warm day at 31c. Expect the temps to improve from Wednesday.


There was light rain in Chandigarh and Amritsar today, with rain in Manali too.


Vagaries' weekly report mentions of  F-3  expected to strengthen from Tuesday. Precipitation will gain intensity from Tuesday in Northern India, and weaken in Pakistan.


Repeating from the weekly report--" It should precipitate heavy snow/rain in Kashmir/H.P. and Uttaranchal on Tuesday thru Thursday.The strengthened system will bring some rain to Punjab and Haryana on Tuesday and Wednesday.
System moves away from India from Thursday."


But, this "lethargy" on the part of the system has caused some temporary rise in temps in Western/ central and south central India alongwith a hot days in Gujarat.


The actual temp map shows the heated region, and the max. temp anomaly map is also attached. Shows the Western half of India as above normal.The heating is more than anticipated.


 


Hottest in India (and Asia) on Monday was Bellary (Karnataka) at 38.1c, followed by Kurnool at 37.5c.solapur in Southern Mah. was 36.9c. 
Surat was 36.8c on Monday, but as explained, it is expected to cool down from Wednesday.
Mumbai S'Cruz was 36.5c.


Banking on F-3 to regain and improve the Central and Western India day temps from Tuesday.

My Views on the Thick Fog that Enveloped Chennai and Pondicherry on Monday Morning. 

All along from Chennai to Pondicherry, a thick fog enveloped the coast off Tamil Nadu. Ideal conditions developed for dense fog in Chennai.
Initially, a West (from cool land)  wind commenced in the interim period from 5 am to 8.30 am, clashing with high humidity at 100%. The low/ideal velocity coming land breeze in the early morning hours met humid air, from a warm sea, sea temperature off Chennai was 29.3c. Land breeze could be around 20c then.
Perfect condensation was in place with a clear sky. As the fog formed, the winds died down at around 8 am and it was calm till 10 am. There was 0 - 0.5 kms visibility from 5 am to 9.30 am in Chennai. The fog, was maximum, with 0 visibility at around 8.30 am.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 19th Feb to 26th February.

1.   F-3 is taking its own time in developing, due to poor incursion and adverse winds. It will cover Northern Pakistan and North Indian states of Kashmir and H.P. by Sunday. Sunday/Monday will get moderate precipitation to Northern Pakistan and North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P.
But, F-3 will gain more depth on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves Eastwards into India. Vertical vortex will be around -60 by Wednesday. It should precipitate heavy snow/rain in Kashmir/H.P. and Uttaranchal on Tuesday thru Thursday.The strengthened system will bring some rain to Punjab and Haryana on Tuesday and Wednesday.
System moves away from India from Thursday

2.   F-3 has lingered on in the region for almost 4/5 days. This creates a trough slanting eastwards into Nepal. As a result, clouding and moderate rain likely from Tuesday (western Nepal) and spreading to central Nepal on Wednesday.

3.  Weather dry over the sub-continent below 30N line.

City Forecasts:

Mumbai: Mumbai day temperature saw 34c again on Saturday (mentioned in last weekly forecast) due to changes in the wind direction (to NE).With a high pressure forming quickly over the Arabian Sea off Mumbai, we can expect the winds to revert back to N from Sunday evening,and Monday will be NW winds blowing over the city.
Sunday 19th: (S’Cruz) temperatures: 32c and 18c.
Monday 20th: 30c and Monday morning low will be 17/18c. Very windy (NW) in the evening.
Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd: 29c and low in the morning will be 15/16c.

Pune: Temperatures are warm now in the day at 34c.
Sunday19th thru Wednesday 22nd : Days will be warm in the 33/34c range. And Nights,currently at 12c, will warm up to 14c.
Wednesday 22nd: Nights falling back to 12c.

Delhi:
Sunday Thru Tuesday: Partly cloudy days falling a bit to 21/22c, but nights rising to 11/12c.
Tuesday 21st: Cloudy.Temp 21c.
Wednesday/Thursday: Clear Nights falling from 12c to 9/10c.

Surat will see a fall in temperatures from Wednesday, both day and night. Night could be around 14c on Wed 22nd.

Bharuch: 
Sunday 19th: Warm with temperature around 32c.
Monday 20th: Nw winds will cool down the day to 30c, and
Tuesday will be very windy with fall in night temperatures on Wed/Thursday.

Karachi:
Sunday: Slight rise in temps.
Monday20th thru Wednesday 22nd:As a high forms in the Arabian Sea,very windy conditions will prevail in Karachi, winds from the west will be gusty.Day and night range will be 25c and 11c.
Some clouding on Tuesday.
Winds changing to N direction will drop the night temperature down on Wednesday to 8/9c again. Rise in temps from Thursday.

Sukkur:
Sunday and Monday: Slight rise in temps.
Temps will fall from Tuesday thru Thursday.

Kathmandu:
Sunday/Monday: Warm with day /night range between 25c and 8c.
Tuesday/Wednesday:  cloudy with light rains. Temps will be in the 21/22c and 10c range. Fall thereafter for a couple of days.

Dubai will be cloudy on Sunday. Monday will see dust raising winds (Westerly) blowing sand over the city.Temperatures dropping from Tuesday.Could drop to 15c on Wednesday morning.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Answer To Global Warming Hysteria(This will feature regularly from today as and when related events occur worlwide)


Sierra snowfall consistent over 130 years.


Snowfall in the Sierra Nevada has remained consistent for 130 years, with no evidence that anything has changed as a result of climate change, according to a study released Tuesday.

The analysis of snowfall data in the Sierra going back to 1878 found no more or less snow overall - a result that, on the surface, appears to contradict aspects of recent climate change models.
Read more here


This Day last Year:
Mumbai had recieved light rains on 16th February 2011. Mahableshwar had got a heavy thunderstorm, for an hour, and Oune reported drizzles too, this day last year. Due to the cloudy conditions and rain, Mumbai's high was 30c and low was 20c last year.

A view of vehicles and buildings during the sand storm, Shaikh Zayed Road. Sand storm blankets entire city of Dubai on Friday, February 17, 2012


Near gale winds are blowing dust in the open areas and reducing visibility down to 800 metres in some areas of Dubai. Motorists are advised to drive cautiously



Thursday, February 16, 2012

Pleasantly Surprised to see Mumbai drop to 14c today (Thursday) Morning ! Expected to touch 13c at S'Cruz and 16/17c at Colaba on Friday Morning. 


Pune saw 9.8c and Nasik 9c on Thursday morning. Delhi S'Jung reached 7c.
Kolkata had light rains today in the afternoon after thundery rains in the morning.


Nasir from Pakistan informs that Sukkar touched 3.5c on Thursday morning.Kathmandu drops to 5c.


Wednesday, February 15, 2012



After summarising how the weather has behaved after the weekly forecast put up by vagaries, we shall attempt to put in the next 3 days (Thurs/Fri/Sat) forecast:

1. F-2 moved into the sub continent and precipitated snow in the northern regions of Pakistan. after moving into India on Sunday, Kashmir and H.P. had very good snowfall. 
On Monday, 13th, the northern plains too had light to medium rains in Punjab and Haryana and the northern plains of Pakistan including Islamabad. Delhi was cloudy on 13th and 14th with very light sprinkling of drizzles.

Saurashtra region saw a drop in day temp on Wed (today, vagaries had forecasted Sunday/Mnday), with the day's high at Rajkot being 27c (IMD) and 26c at Ashokbhai's ring road Weather station. NW winds caused this drop. Ashokbhai's Station saw agust of 21 kmph today.

F-2 has moved into Nepal. A trough exists there, and good clouding in the Central and Western regions. BUT, not much of actual precipitation. Lets hope for some on Thursday. Clouds have raised the night temps in Kathmandu from 2c to 8c today (Wed).

System will move west on Thursday, and bring precipitation to Central/Eastern Nepal and Sikkim and North W.B.

The secondary low mentioned in the weekly forecast, forms over Orissa/W. Bengal by tonite. Rainfall is expected in W.Bengal as a result of the dual effect of the 2 systems.The systems dissolve very fast in the next 24 hrs due to dry interaction.
Kolkata can get rains from Thursday itself, a day earlier than forecasted. And the day temp has also moved up,  Wed, being 31.5c . 

2. The UAC mentioned in the weekly forecast moves NE, and has formed a trough along the S.Mah/Vid/Chattisgarh line "poking" into the new low.
As a result, light rains were experianced in Nagpur and Wardha on Wed and light rains in S.Mah/Marathwada. on Tuesday night, with Parbhani measuring 0.3 mms.Weather willl be dry now onwards in these regions, as the parent low fizzles out.

Next 3 days, Delhi will be clear, and steady in the current range between  23c and 12c.

Mumbai will be clear, but possibly see a marginal rise in day temps on Thursday and Friday. Maybe going upto 32c next 2 days. Nights have been around 16/17 (S'Cruz) post F-2, and will hover around 18c next 2 nights.

Pune did not drop to 9c, but stayed put at 11c last 2 nights. Now, a marginal rise ( to 33/34c) in day temps next 2 days expected.

Interior Balochistan saw an extreme low of 0.5c at Norkundi and 1c at Sibi on Tuesday and Wed. And Karachi dropped to 9c. Sukkar maintained the night at 9c, not going below that.

F-3, will bring clouds Upper Sindh from 17th, Friday. The day/night could increase a bit proir to the appraoch of F-3.With Islamabad currently in a pleasant range of 18c and 1c, a slight rise in temps for a day prior to F-3, which will bring precipitation to the city on Saturday again.

The Tail ending effect of winter is still lingering in the sub-continent. The day and night temps are below normal in vast regions of the NW and Northern regions. Even the Southern areas are below to some extent.



































With F-3 coming, winter could be stretched a bit further into the last week of February


A depression approaches Vietnam on the 17th of February. 
Heavy rainfall expected in Sri Lanka on Thursday/Friday.




The Carrington Event: The sun’s propensity for belching out monstrous solar flares (like the Carrington event of 1859) could almost instantly create a world without modern conveniences, or even electricity.  The sun could literally “bomb us back to the stone age”....Read more on Space News Page..Worth Reading !

Tuesday, February 14, 2012


 Rain in Nagpur .(Check Vagaries' weekly forecast)..See pics sent by Akshay on Inter active Page.

Has GW come to a Halt..did it actually start ??
0.5c rise in 60 years...Really Scary, isn't it ??...Read more Here..







A quick glance at the Northern Hemisphere Snow Fall variations for the last 1 year, from Feb 2011 till Feb 2012 (till 10th.Feb). It is observed that the Winter period snowfall for the 2011-2012 season, snow has been above Normal from November till mid Dec, and then from mid Jan again. From mid Jan graph is not updated, but it is well above normal till mid Feb.
The point to stress is , last year, the snowfall ran well into spring till May. 






And this graph shows the Global temperatures till 2011. Observe the graph steading from 2000. And a fall in 2000.It shows a self explanatory comparison with the El-Nino and La-Nina Years.


Would you consider it alarming ? 
Alarming ? When we see the rise is only 0.5c in the last years !!!

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Vagaries'Sunday Weekly Forecast for the week 12th Feb to 19th February.




1. F-2 moves into the Sub-Continent onSaturday, 11th Feb. System will precipitate rain/snow in the Northern regions of the sub-continent till Monday. In the process, precipitation will also occur in the Northern plains of Pakistan and the Indian states of Punjab,Haryana and some light drizzle in Delhi on Monday, 13th. Gusty NW winds on Sunday/Monday will cool down the days in Saurashtra region of Gujarat.


F-2 moves into  western Nepal on Tuesday 14th, and will be effective till Wednesday,15th. Kathmandu gets rains on Tuesday and Wednesday, cooling the temperatures again. Sikkim and Northern W.Bengal gets good rainfall on 16th


2a) The UAC, over N.I. Karnataka moves NE into S.Mah and thru Vid on Sunday/Monday. Dissolves over Chattisgarh by Tuesday, but pushes a pulse eastwards into Orissa and Kolkata region.
  b) a secondary low forms over Orissa/South W.Bengal on Thursday 16th and Friday 17th


3. During the Sunday 12th-Tuesday 14th period, day temeratures will be slightly below normal in the North. Delhi should be around 21c.
Nights are expected to get cooler by 3/5c from Tuesday, 14th,  night in the plains of Pakistan, including Sindh.
Nights will get cooler by 3/5c in NW India, Punjab,Haryana, west U.P, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Mah.from Tuesday night (14th).
Places in Punjab and Rajasthan may fall to 1c.


4. Next W.D, F-3 is most probably due over Pakistan around Sunday, 18th Feb.


City Forecasts for the Week:


Mumbai: S'Cruz, at 36c on Saturday, was the hottest in Asia for the day (with 7 other citeis also at 36c). Colaba recorded 34c on Saturday. Thats the yo-yoing I was mentioning ! 30c on Friday, 36c on Saturday, with the low at 18c, it was a range of 18c during the day. 


Would like to mention that vagaries had mentioned in the weekly forecast last Sunday -Quote " And Saturday 11th in particular, will be hot, at 34/35c, with East winds dominating."
and Quote again -  "Dryness will be felt as the humidity may drop to 25-30%." and Mumbai saw low humiditiy of 15-20 % on Thursday.


City will see a moderate fall to 31c on Sunday. With N/NW winds settling from Monday, the day/night temperatures will show a drop from Monday  thru Thursday. Sunday thru Tuesday between 30c and 19c. Wed/Thurs between 28c and 16c.
East winds may possibly re-appear again on Saturday, meaning a rise in day temperatures.


Pune: With S winds, should remain warm with the day at 32c. after Wednesday, drop will be seen in the nights to around 8/9c.


Delhi: cloudy Sunday thru Tuesday, with gusty winds on Sunday, and a drizzle on Monday. Days will be 20c Sunday thru Tuesday. Fall in night temperature from Tuesday night, with the low going down to 7c by Thursday.


Nagpur: The UAC moves across Vid and dissolves by Monday. Hence clouding and light rains expected in NGP on Monday. S to Se winds will dominate most of the week after Tuesday, a gradual rise in day/night temperature in the city during the week. May reach 32/33c by Friday. Nights should drop after the rains.


Kolkata: Currently a high pressure dominates the Northern areas of the Eastern Coast. The city will be clear and in the current range of temps (26-13c) prevails till Wednesday. 
Wed night will be misty and smoggy. 
From Thursday, as a secondary low forms (1006 mb), it will be cloudy, but will show a rise in day/night temperatures.Wed/Thurs temperatures will rise by 2//3c above the 26-13c range.  
Rainfall is expected on Friday.


Karachi/Sukkar: No effect of precipitation of F-2, but Karachi sees drop in day and night temperatures from Monday, due to windy conditions (N/NW). With a drop in humidity,the temperaturechanges  From current range of 26c-10c to 22c- 8c in Karachi. Sukkar could drop to 6c on Wednesday, and days will be cooler till Wednesday.
Interior Sindh may cool down to 1c on Tuesday/Wed.


If modifications or corrections are needed as the week progresses, vagaries will up date it. (Hope its not required -:))


Last week's Weekly forecast put up on Sunday last had 2 points correct.Point 3. of no W.D. was slightly off the mark, as F-2 arrived on Saturday. Forecast was 90% accurate.
Please keep posting your local weather for correct assesment . Check Current Weather Page on Vagaries for your cities' current temperature.


City Feedbacks on the weekly forecast are lacking from Kolkata.

Friday, February 10, 2012



On recollection, Vagaries had predicted a UAC to form over the S.Mah. area on Friday (Today). A slight variation in the actual. Instead, a low at sea level has formed off the Karnataka/Kerala coast on Friday. 
Resultantly, some heavy rainfall is expected in Southern Kerala ( In the Southern quadrant of the low), including Thiruvananthpuram, on Saturday.

The system moves inland, rather NE, and moves into S.I.Karnataka and Southern Mah. regions on Saturday/Sunday, but as a UAC.
clouding is expected in these areas and possibly very light rains. Moderate rains in Kerala on Saturday.
As the UAC moves NE, it fizzles out as a system over Chattisgarh on Monday.


Naturally, this will result in clouds moving into Pune on the weekend, and, a rise in night temperatures from the current 6c to 10/11c.


Mumbai, which was 30c today, after being 4 days below 30c, will continue to see a rise in day and night temps. Sunday morning would rise to 19c at Colaba and 16c at S'Cruz. Days could go upto 33c on the weekend. Maybe with some cirrus clouds.
Winds turn Northerly again from Monday night. Meaning fall in temps.


F-2 enters the sub-continent through Pakistan on Saturday. Pakistan gets precipitation in its Northern regions Sat and Sun.


Meanwhile, the day and night temperatures will show a rise in Karachi. PWP in its blog states that Karachi had one of its codest days on the 7th, at 21.8c. Currently, the temperature range is etween 27 and 8c. Likely rise expected in the night temperatures by 2/3c this weekend. Marginal fall again from Tuesday as F-2 moves into India. 
Sukkar, saw a low of 4c, but, will have partly cloudy skies next 2 days, resulting in a rise in night temperatures. A fall again from Monday night. Could drop back to 5c levels next week.


F-2 moves into India on Sunday. Good precipiataion expected in Kashmir, H.P, and Northern Punjab on the weekend. Delhi night temperatures will gradually rise from the current 4c level to 9/10c by Sunday night (Monday morning). Light drizzle expected on Monday.
Again, snowfall on the weekend. 
F-2 likely to slip into Nepal on Tuesday.


Detailed forecast will be put on Saturday night (a bit late in the night) in the "Vagaries weekly forecast".(Kolkata readers please give regular feedback as and when possible to verify.)


Here is the latest Global Temperature taking Jan 2012 into account...

Click on Graph.....Well ??











Thursday, February 09, 2012

Mumbai S'Cruz Low on Thursday Morning Bottoms to 8.8c !! 8c Below Normal for this time of the Month !

Ganesh inquires whether now this station can beat its all time low of 7.4c ?
Personally, I do not think it possible this season. According to my estimate the temps can show a  rise very soon, maybe from tonite itself, and yo-yo throughout this week.
But, this 8.8 itself is very confusing and surprising ! At 5.30 am, S'Cruz showed 12.4c, at 6.30 pm it was 11.4c. At 7.30 am it showed 10.8c. Now, the minimum is usually around 6.45-7.00 am. So, accordingly, between 6.30 and 7.30 am, it dropped to 8.8c ! 

Join debate on this on FB in the "Vagaries of the Weather" Group.Join the Group anyway..


Nasik confirms to be at 2.7c, and Pune recorded 4.6c Thursday Morning. Nasik AWS shows a low of 1.8c today !
In Gujarat, Nalliya was lowest at 2.0c, while Deesa recorded 4.4c. Surat was 9.3c.


Wednesday, February 08, 2012

The anticipitated low (estimated in vagaries' weekly forecast) formed over U.P, South of Nepal today. Result was very good precipitation in Nepal.
Even as vagaries had estimated up to 30 mms in some places in Nepal, Bhairahawa in Nepal measured 61.5 mms of rainfall. Several other stations received between 20-40 mms. 


Kathmandu had a cold/overcast and rainy day today (Wed). What can you expect when the day's high manages 11.5c, rising only 1.9c from the minimum. The reason was a good 31.7 mms during the day.
Rains likely to clear by Thursday, bringing clear skies and from in night temps. Kathmandu can go down to 2c.


Bahraich in U.P. received 61 mms of rain in the day today. Fatehpur measured 50 mms. Shimla had snow in the day today (Wed).


Nasir reports from Sukkur of temp going down to 0c. Sukkar official site reading shows 4c. Karachi was at 10c on Wednesday morning. Sukkar and Karachi night temps likely to rise from Friday morning.


A UAC forming over South Mah. on Friday is likely to bring cloudy weather to N.I.Karnataka and South interior Mah. Light rainfall possible in S.Mah and Marathwada on Saturday.


Cold conditions from the sub continent should abate from Friday, as the F-2 system approaches Pakistan from Saturday.will creep into N.Indian states of Kashmir and H.P. on Saturday, and bringing rains in Punjab on Sunday.


As mentioned, temperatures in Mumbai will be fluctuating and yo-yo-ing a lot this week. From the recent low of Wed/Thursday morning it would rise to 33/34 by Saturday. Then, a fall to 16/17 expected again from Monday.


Coldest place in India on Wed morning was Chushul (Ladakh) :-30c, Gulmarg: -12c,Bhatinda (Punjab) -0.6c and Amrritsar :-0.3c. Nalliya (gujarat ) saw 0.8c.


Just for your information, the coldest places in the world on Wed 8th Feb, morning: 


Ojmjakon (Russia) at  -55c. 
Greenland was Summit Point, reading -39c. 
North America was Shephard Bay (Nunavat) at -36c. 
Kemi in Finland was the lowest in Main Europe at -25c.
U.K. measured  Church Fenton as the coldest place at -12c.

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Come Tuesday, and the cool NW winds are lashing.


Mumbai saw a fall in day temp on Tuesday, with strong NW winds. The day was 27c at Colaba and 28c at S'Cruz. Now could fall to the 14/15c expected on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
But, this week is a week of wide fluctuations for Mumbai. Friday will see the day temp going up to 34c ! And the night will be 19c. Reverting back to 31c by Sunday, as NW winds return ( F-2 expected from Sunday).
Pune: should see a drop from Tuesday for a couple of days. 
A  UAC forms over S.Madhya Mah on Thursday, bringing in some clouds over the city. (Some light rains in S.Madhya Mah possible Thursday).


Delhi 's projected drizzle did take place today (Tuesday), with S'Jung measuring 0.6mms and Palam 0.6 mms.The days were better with the NW winds and hovered around 20c. Our expected fall in night temp to 7c should now take place from Tuesday night.
Chennai was partly cloudy today, with some areas reporting light rainfall. another cloudy day on Wed, and warmer days from Friday as mentioned.
Bangalore has already heated up to the 31-18c range on Tuesday. Though expected fro Thursday, we see the heating taking effect sooner.


Kolkata, now in the 30-16c range, will see a marginal drop next 2 days. On Wed and Thursday, with N winds, will bring about a fall of 2/3 c in the day and night temps, to around 27c and 13c range. 
But no precipitation expected next few days. We may hope for some on seeing the movement of F-2 later this week or early next week.


Satyen reports of a cooler day on Tuesday for Bharuch.The town will see a rise in day temps from Thursday, maybe substantial on Friday, reverting back to decent temps on Sunday.


Neeraj reports of a very warm day in Kathmandu on Tuesday. With the day's high at 25.7c, it seems to him it could be a record for the month ! Heavy rains expected on Wed in Kathmandu region and eastern Nepal and Sikkim.


Karachi has cooled down and is in the 22-8c range (check forecast), though Sukkar has dropped to 4c, against vagaries' expected 6c forecast. Rise in temps for the reigon from Friday. 
F-2 in Northern Pakistan region from Saturday, 11th.



Where’s Your Global Warming Dude?

Switzerland:
Temperatures dipped to below -20 in several locations in Switzerland on the night of Friday to Saturday, the coldest of the winter so far.According to the SF Meteo weather service, the very lowest overnight temperature, -34, was recorded on the Glattalp in the central canton of Schwyz.

The village of La Brévine, in the Jura in western Switzerland, reputed to be the coldest place in Switzerland, recorded a temperature of -23.9. However, this is well above the Swiss record it set in 1987 of -41.8.

Even in the plateau area, temperatures varied between about -15 and -20. At Zurich airport it fell just below -20 in the coldest part of the night.

Monday night saw the Kvilda region of the Czech Republic record a temperature of -39.4C (-38F) on Monday night.

Winter whacks Europe..see video here..amazing ! 

Read more and a full detailed report direct from Scotland..This is the time to read Mark's Blog !  

Whats with this Severe Cold ?
Temperatures dipped to bitter levels once again this morning from the Low Countries where Amsterdam fell to -10C (14F) to -40C/F over the Finnish Interior. Germany shivered in their coldest morning in quarter of a century with -29.1C (-20F) on the Baltic Sea Island of Usedom, even mainland Germany shivered to -28C (-19F).

Snow/Cold spell now moves into N. Africa: Rare snow whitens Tripoli, Libya, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2012
.
Much more on vagaries tonite.