Sunday, June 05, 2011

What is the actual "designation" of AS 1 ??
Here the IMD map shows a trough along the west coast, without a low. But, they have an announcement of a UAC embedded in the trough, off the Mah. coast.

A Thai map on Sunday shows a low of 1000 mb , off Mumbai, but clearly descended to lower levels.
The NPMOC/JTWC tropical note mentions it as a "low level circulation" at 1003 mb.

In any case, its a system. This system, now at 17.5N and 72E, off Mumbai, creating huge cloud masses off Mumbai.See wundermap @ 11.30 am IST.

It is pulling up the SWM at a faster than normal speed along the coast. The trough, getting stremgthened with embedded system, pulls the SW winds and moisture into the coast. This happens during the on-going monsoon period also.

Whether the As-1 moves N or NW is to be seen.Could still move NW as the jet streams show.

Mumbai will get thundershowers by evening with gusty winds. Thundercells are developing in the north-east as of now (1.30 pm). Showers frequency more in evening.


Ron said...

imd announces that monsoon has reached mumbai

svt said...

Monsoon is over mumbai now. According to imd northen line of monsoon passes through dhanu (must be dahanu), nasik.... Wont be surprised if monsoon reaches surat, vadodara in next 24 hrs. But still rain/clouds is coming from north east rather than south west may be its northeast monsoon :) cola is expecting heavy rains for west coast (incl mumbai) for next 15 days. May be bay low might form next week.

sset said...

Rajesh - your analysis strikes at precision. Great!!! Any site which explain weather terms and how they are calculated? For instance gradient...., UAC

1. Intense deep clouds off Maharastra coast. Navi Mumbai raining ALL 24 HOURS. Already hills, trees and Mumbai-Pune highway looks like Switzerland - green, water falls, huge dense canopies of trees. Amazing rhythm of nature rings at correct time.

2. Last year monsoon currents were above 15deg latitude, hence south interior karnataka -
Bangalore. mysore.., malnad regions madikeri, chickmaglur were left dry. What is the situation this year?

3. Mumbai-Maharastra had excess of rains 2010 with Mumbai - 4000mm!!. Will it be same this year?


Ron said...

can u pls give us your insight on doesn't seem to move ahead...also is there any low expected from BOB....the east wing seems to be stuck....

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