SEASONAL LOW.

ALSO FAR WEST TROUGH..A LITTLE OUT OF PLACE

🌩️ Pune Thunderstorm Update –  🌧️

Strong post-noon thunderstorm activity lashed several parts of Pune district on 22nd May, bringing intense localised rainfall and gusty conditions.

📍 Pune Rainfall (mm) till 8.30 IST – 23 -05-2026

Nigdi 97 

CHINCHWAD 67

Kondwa 58

ZP School Pisoli 56

DUDULGAON 38.5

SHIRUR 35.5

Aundh 35

KURVANDE 32.5

NDA 30.0

AMBEGAON 28.0

RAJGURUNAGAR 27.0

NIMGIRI 23.0

Bhosale Nagar 22

NARAYANGOAN 21.5

BALLALWADI 21.5

PASHAN_AWS 18.5

SHIVAJINAGAR 13.3

KOREGAON PARK 10.0

LAVALE 8.5

HAVELI 1.5

GIRIVAN 0.5

in mms

⚡ Heavy convective clouds developed rapidly during the afternoon due to increasing moisture incursion and intense daytime heating over interior Maharashtra.

🌦️ More localised thunderstorms are possible over Pune district and nearby Ghat regions during the next 2–3 days.

🌐 Details & Updates: www.vagaries.in

#P#Punerains

21st May..Post 

Weather Watch Summary 22nd May - 30th May.

1. There seems a probability of a Low forming in Central Arabian sea on 23rd.

2. This may pull off the moisture from the West Coast.

3. Rainfall in patches likely on West Coast and Thundershowers in Ghats till May end.

4. That is till the AS 1 moves away.

5. South West Monsoon expected in Kerala around previous expected date 30th May - 1st June. 

6. Mumbai can get pre- monsoon thundershowers after 1st/2nd June. 

7. If progress is maintained, Monsoon can arrive in Mumbai around 11th June.

8. Remainder of May: Mumbai:

 Normal humid weather around 34°/35°.

A few patchy localised ( Hit and Miss type) showers on the odd day. Evenings.

9. Pune: Partly Cloudy by afternoon with localised thundershower. Around 40°

10. Vidarbha will be the normal hotbed at 44°- 47°.

30th May Temperatures in India..How they Stand

Day Temperatures 

Night Temperatures

20th May

Possible chance of Derailing the El Niño effect this summer: 

A Positive I.O.D. can partially offset weak El Niño effects and sometimes supports a near-normal Indian Monsoon.

A Positive I.O.D. occurs when the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than normal, while the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia turns cooler than normal.

This temperature contrast strengthens winds towards Africa and often helps enhance the Indian Monsoon by increasing moisture flow towards India.

Typical Effects:

Better monsoon support for India 🌧️

Increased rainfall over East Africa

Reduced rainfall near Indonesia/Australia

Vagaries Insight:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase, hovering around -0.04.

Forecasts project a shift to a positive IOD phase by late June or July 2026, with the index potentially exceeding the +0.5 threshold as a developing El Niño influences the broader climate system.

This may counter the developing El Nino. Indian Ocean may start working a bit in India’s favour even as the Pacific turns hostile.

Still Too early to make a call

 18th May Post

Highlight: Pre Monsoon Low in Arabian Sea precipitates heavy rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnatak upto Goa.

Kozhikode 101 mm

Kannur 88 mm

Cochin 54 mm 

Gadag 84 mm ( Kar)

Mangalore 14 mm(Kar)

Goa Margao 47 mm

Goa panjim 11 mm

This Low will, later in the week, mildly activate the Off shore West Coast Trough.

Hence some pre monsoon thundershowers can be expected Along entire West Coast from 24th May - 28th May. 

Konkan ( Mumbai) can expect showers from 24th - 28th May.

PLEASE VIEW ON LARGE SCREEN AS IMAGE IS SMALLGives us an analysis of Previous ENSO Events