Bareilly Soaked: Third Highest Single-Day May Rainfall Since Records Began

Bareilly (UP) recorded 54.6mm rain in last 24hrs, this is the 3rd highest single day rain recorded there in May in the recorded history.

Highest 24hrs rain in May was on 21 May 2000 when it recorded 69.4mm. Data: IMD

Where Did the Heat Go? UP Sees Major May Temperature Drop

Maximum temperatures in UP on 4 May (and departure from normal)

Aligarh: 29c (-10)

Bahraich: 29c (-8.8)

Bareilly: 28.5c (-10.1)

Barabanki: 26.5c (-12.1) (2nd lowest maximum temperature in May in history)

Etawah: 31.4c (-10.1)

Hamirpur: 34.2c (-6.5)

Fursatganj: 30.3c (-9.5)

Jhansi: 35.2c (-6.7)

Kanpur: 36c (-4.5)

Lucknow: 29c (-10.4) (4th lowest maximum temperature in May in history)

Meerut: 30c (-7.9)

Muzaffarnagar: 30.3c (-6.8)

Shahjahanpur: 27.8c (-8.8)

Varanasi: 35.6c (-4.8)

Sultanpur: 32.4c (-6.6)

 Rare "May" snow in Greece..On International Weather Page.

 

Vagaries of the Weather ©

Monsoon Watch – 3

📅 3rd May 2026

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🌧️ OVERALL STATUS

🟡 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE / NEAR NORMAL

Monsoon parameters progressing, but Bay activity and pressure gradient still insufficient.

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📊 PARAMETER ANALYSIS

1. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS

Active in South Arabian Sea branch

⚠️ Bay branch weak

🔴 INDICATOR: -VE

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2. SEASONAL LOW (THAR CORE HEAT)

Core pressure ~1000 mb

➡️ Needs ~994 mb in June

🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL

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3. ENSO STATUS

• ENSO Neutral currently
• Neutral till June (~80%)
• El Niño likely May–July onward (~61%)

📉 RONI: -0.7{ El Niño: Characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping  3-month seasons.}

🟩 INDICATOR: NEUTRAL → EL NIÑO BY AUGUST

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4. BAY OF BENGAL ACTIVITY

No Low / Depression yet
✔️ SST favorable
❌ No trigger

🔴 INDICATOR: -VE

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5. ITCZ / LWD

Near Equator
LWD: Chattisgarh-Telangana-T.N.

🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL

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6. JET STREAMS (200 hPa)

Weak SE winds south of 8°N

🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL

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📋 PARAMETER SUMMARY 

PARAMETER	STATUS
Cross Equatorial Winds	🔴 -VE
Seasonal Low	🟩 NORMAL
ENSO	🟩 NEUTRAL
Bay Activity	🔴 -VE
ITCZ / LWD	🟩 NORMAL
Jet Streams	🟩 NORMAL
OVERALL	🟡 SLIGHT -VE / NORMAL

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🗓️ TENTATIVE MONSOON ONSET 

South Andamans → 🔴 19 MAY
Andaman Islands → 🔴 22 MAY
Maldives → 🔴 29–30 MAY
Sri Lanka → 🔴 30 MAY – 1 JUNE
Kerala / NE India → 🔴 3–5 JUNE
Coastal Karnataka → 🔴 7 JUNE
Goa → 🔴 8–9 JUNE
Mumbai & West Bengal → 🔴 12–14 JUNE

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🌦️ VAGARIES INSIGHT 

• Arabian branch strengthening
• Bay remains critical missing trigger
• Seasonal Low yet to deepen
• ENSO turning factor later

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🔴 NOTE

🔴 Observation-based forecast. Not for commercial use.
🔴 Conditions may change rapidly and are monitored continuously.

 

 1st May All India Weather Update:

World Ranking in Hottest Places 

World Ranking in Lowest Night Temperatures 

Meanwhile, Nights getting better marginally in North and Central India 

April Showers Break Records: Delhi Sees Wettest April in Over a Decade

Delhi Safdarjung recorded the wettest April at least since 2010

Yearwise April rainfall as follows (2010-2026)