October 9th Night Post

Mumbai Santacruz.. Heading for October All time High ?

And AQI improving 

Hot Weekend (9th- 12th) ahead for Mumbai !

 8th October Night Post :

Hot Weekend (9th- 12th) ahead for Mumbai !

Monsoon over, Easterlies set in, weak delayed sea breeze and High Pressure over Gujarat / Rajasthan ..

Alarmist, take note of this fact... Our fellow Vagarian from Singapore, Shreyas Dhavale complained of extreme haze and pollution there. World Rankings.. 8th October 👇

Mumbai no. 6

Pune: Warm and dry, getting some clouds in the evening. Day /Night Temperatures range around 36°-20°c

Sambhajinagar expected to heat up to 38/39°c.

On 8th, around MMR region heated up as shown below ( compiled by Vag Abhijit Modak). 

Panjim: Monsoon Withdrawal this weekend. Retreating thundershowers expected in the evening. 

6th October 👆👇

 

Fast Climate Transition in Mumbai.

Mumbai

“Fast Climate Transition in Mumbai. This speed of transition is more interesting climatologically than simply calling it “October heat.”

2 October: Mumbai — A remarkably fast seasonal transition

2 October: Mumbai abruptly entered October heat. Colaba 37.4°C (+5.6°C) and Santacruz 36.9°C (+4.6°C). Santacruz observations also show relative humidity dropping as low as about 41% that day

The mechanism is important: as the monsoon circulation weakened, winds shifted from moist westerlies toward easterly/land flow, while an anticyclone near Mumbai delayed the cooling sea breeze. 

Then came the equally rapid deterioration in air quality. Mumbai's overall AQI rose to 111 on 2 October, with Worli at 178 and Colaba 143, after generally remaining below 80 during the rainy months. 

Vagaries would phrase the AQI mechanism carefully as: "temperature inversion can trap pollutants near the surface '', 

But it should not be presented as the sole cause of this particular AQI rise without vertical-Weak winds, loss of rain washout, drier air/dust and changing post-monsoon circulation were also important. 

That gives a strong sequence to note:

29–30 Sep: Withdrawal thunderstorms → 2 Oct: 37°C Heat + humidity drop → 3 Oct:  Monsoon withdrawal → early October: haze/AQI deterioration. 

This week also start a Maharashtra October heat. Malegaon has already reached 38.4°C, 5.9°C above normal.

 Maharashtra — Final Monsoon Status: State rainfall finished at 804.4 mm against 994.5 mm normal: −19%, (just inside IMD's “normal” classification rather than deficient, whose threshold begins at −20%.) 

Twenty-one districts finished deficient. Particularly striking were Solapur −58%, Hingoli −49%, Jalna −48% and Parbhani −40%.. 

While Nashik +33% and Palghar +21% were in excess. 

Vagaries' Monsoon anlysis v/s Other Factors

 3rd October:

Monsoon Over in Mumbai and Pune 

S.W.Monsoon ..Widhrawal Line shown below (Vagaries)....Mumbai Included

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Vagaries always gives its views and "Watches" on the various Weather phenomena or events that happen..we do not always insist or stick to forecast and estimates.

This year, 2026, we have made an analysis of the Monsoon Season..and displayed in Pictorial format.

(These are Vagaries' views are are not binding. May contradict with other agencies).

DISTRICT RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-6-2026 TO 30-9-2026

 

Mumbai..1st October Haze