FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2022

 

 Seasonal Rainfall 

Maharashtra & Goa coastal seasonal rainfall total 2022:

*

Lanja: 4398*

Malvan: 3271

Devgad: 2570*

Ratnagiri: 2779*

Vengurla:2699*

Shrivardhan: 2858*

Guhagar: 2755*

Pawas: 2267*

Jaitapur:2467*

Harnai: 2515*

Dapoli:3512*

Palghar:3301*

Alibag: 2128*

Murud: 2226*

Chiplun: 3472*

Dadar West:2785*

Vasai:2851*

Colaba: 2094*

Dahanu: 2638*

Thane: 3092*

Kalyan:3350*

Mangaon: 3096*

Santacruz: 2658*

Mahad: 3185*

Pen: 3492*

Roha: 3271*

Uran: 2581*

Boisar: 2309*

Poladpur: 3555*

Nagothane: NA

Ulhasnagar:3387*

Panvel: 3030*

Goa entire:

Quepem:3033*

Pernem:3437*

Mormugao:2241*

Canacona:2907*

Panaji: 2304*

Sanguem:3057*

Sanquelim:2613*

29th September

South West Monsoon Withdraws from Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan, exactly on 29th ( indicated few days ago in Vagaries). {also confirmed by IMD today}

The withdrawal Line 👇

The Mentioned BB-14 is positioned as shown below 👇, will emerge in the Bay around 1st,and later will merge with the UAC...

Mumbai/Pune: Thunder Showers expected this weekend..30thSept/1st Oct/2nd Oct.

27th September Night:

The UAC ( shown in 25th post Image), will on September 28,  be over parts of West Bengal, Odisha, and some parts of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and  partly over sea. It will almost be over the same region and not show much movement.

Cotinuing from our Snippet shown here..👉

A Typhoon, Noru, has already formed over the South China Sea and will weaken as it crosses the southeast Asian countries of Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia etc. Thereafter, it will emerge in the Indian waters, almost merging with this UAC.

NORU 👉 

Hence, on October 2nd/3rd, another system , BB-14  emerge in the Bay. 

As it is now the Withdrawal time, and 200 hp Streams and anti Cyclones resistances are present, BB-14, the systems from the Bay,  will  not reach out far too Westwards. May just track N/NW, into East Indian States .

SWM withdraws from Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi as targeted on 29th.

Mumbai: As already forecasted, we saw almost rain free days, and totally rainfree evenings on 26th and 27th, adding delight to the celebrations...A little hassle from 29th- 1st October ,as Mumbai can see thundershowers in the evenings, and play spoilsport.

Pune will witness showers on 28th,29th and 30th in the evenings.

Bharuch/Surat  will see light rains on 28th, 29th and 30th. May not spoil the festivities.

25th September Evening Post:

South West Monsoon likely to bid goodbye from Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan by Thursday 29th/ Friday 30th September.

Now, rain activities will reduce significantly over Northwest India including Punjab Haryana Delhi and western parts of Uttar Pradesh. 

An anticyclone is expected to develop over southwest Rajasthan by September 27, and northwesterly dry winds will commence over most parts of Northwest and Central India.

Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) since 01 June 2022 till 25 September 2022 EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA  -17% ,  

NORTHWEST INDIA  +1% 

CENTRAL INDIA +19% 

SOUTH PENINSULA INDIA  +24% 

COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 909.3 mms (Actual) .. 848.5mms ( Normal) +7%

Currently, the Country as a whole is in Surplus by +7%.   

But N.E, Jharkhand and U.P.are in deficit. These states can recover if the UAC in West Bay tracks N/NW...

IMD

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Navratri Forecasts for first 5 days: 

Mumbai: From 26th thru 29th,. Celebrating Navratri Garba will be .with few showers in certain areas, but hopefully without major rain interruptions and without hindrance.

30th onwards, will review if thundershowers can occur. 

Pune: Pune can get the evening thunderstorms from 27th or 28th thru the week. 

Aurangabad District. From 27th/28th/29th, can get moderate to heavy thundershowers in pockets. Some patches may see hit or miss. Thundershowers can occur thru till Friday.

औरंगाबाद जिल्हा. 27/28/29 पासून, अनेक ठिकाणी मध्यम ते जोरदार पाऊस पडू शकतो. शुक्रवारपर्यंत मेघगर्जनेसह पाऊस पडू शकतो.

Gujarat: The first 5 days of Navratri  Celebrations  will be rain free in Saurashtra.

However,  some patchy showers can be expected in Gujarat Region. Bharuch, Surat on 27th,/28th.

Heavy rain forecast for north India - next 24-48 hours

Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and northern parts of Punjab and Haryana can receive heavy rain in next 24-48 hours. Some places can get very heavy rain. Higher elevations to receive snow.

Chances of landslides and mudslides in Himalayas, take precautions if traveling.

Haryana 24 hour rain: Narnaul 196 mms, Karnal 153 mmRewari 104.4 mm, Gurgain 84 mms, Rohtak 73 mms, Hissar 41 mms.

 23rd September:

Heavy to Moderate Rainfall occurred in Delhi NCR and Haryana...isolated spot in West U.P....Interaction of BB13 (UAC) and Axis of Monsoon

Rainfall 👇

Gurgaon 108 mms, 

Rainfall will decrease by Saturday...This is Last spell of SWM, before withdrawal.