15th October: 

NE Wind directions show a gradual transition of change as the SW Monsoon winds have diminished.

The Low Pressure (BB 14) in the Bay will strengthen into a depression and cross T.N. Coast by 17th. Proper N.E.Monsoon set in will be established from 17th. However, Pre Monsoon showers in association with the system BB 14 has commenced as seen in the map 

(IMD Statement on 15th October::Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country today, the 15th October 2024. Simultaneously, the Northeast monsoon rainfall activity has commenced over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala today, in association with  A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over central part of south Bay of Bengal.)

As the withdrawal of the SWM has begun with the change in winds, the South West Monsoon season will be over by 17th. October.

As the BB-14 system moves inland into Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and entire South Peninsula will get thunder showers from 16th to 19th October. We can associate these rains with the advancing North East Monsoon system.

Mumbai: The transition of season change has started with reversal of winds. As the Monsoon withdraws by 17th, Mumbai can get the few local evening thunder showers from 16th to 19th October. Post monsoon rains in Mumbai have been witnessed before.

Pune: Getting warmer, but local thunder showers will continue till 18th October.

 

 From Vagarian Private Station Borivali 

 

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11th Night Post:

The Well Marked Low ( AS- 3) in the Arabian Sea is keeping the Monsoon " alive" in Maharashtra and rest of Peninsula India.

Now, AS-3 is expected to move away Westwards. But, we have another Low ( BB-14) in the Bay surfacing by 14th October. 

BB-14 is expected to strengthen into a Deep Depression and strike T.N. with heavy rains.

Subsequently, as the system is strong, it will cross South India and re emerge in the Arabian Sea as a Low around date 17th/18th. So, effective thunder showers will continue till 19th in Maharashtra, Goa and Mumbai.

Mumbai and Pune will continue to receive a the evening " retreating" thundershowers till 19th/20th October. Intensity may decrease, and showers quantum may vary daily and on a few days will be localised.

Sambhajinagar (Aurangabad) will get thundershowers on few days till 20th October.

Gujarat: Rains/thundershowers continuing for another 3-4 days.

Saurashtra, Bharuch and Ahmedabad regions can get rain till about 14th October.

South Gujarat areas of Navsari, Valsad, Surat can get rain/thundershowers till 15th October. 

Weather after 15th depends on the track of the new low from Bay of Bengal.

 11th Night 9.30 pm

Mumbai getting thundershowers tonight ?

 *10th October...3hr rainfall from 7.15pm to 10.15pm in Mumbai (BMC)*

B Nadkarni Park Mun. School, Wadala : 70.8 mm

Talchekar wadi Mun. School, Lower Parel : 64 mm

Worli Fire Station : 63 mm

MHB Mun. School, Malad: 62.6 mm

Gokhale Road, South Mun. School, Dadar: 62.6 mm

Supari Tank Mun. School, Bandra: 55.4 mm

Sewri Koliwada Mun. School, Sewri: 53.8 mm

Thursday 10th 8.30 pm