W.Ds bring cooler weather in North India while Peninsula awaiting Monsoon..see Current Weather Page

16th June 2026

Why Has the Monsoon Gone Quiet?

Current Atmospheric & Oceanic Factors Behind the Lull

🔴 1. Atmosphere Responding to Developing El Niño

Nino 3.4 SST anomalies continue to warm.

SOI remains strongly negative.

Indicates atmospheric circulation is already aligning with El Niño conditions.

🔵 2. Suppressed MJO Activity

Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak and away from the Indian Ocean.

Reduced tropical convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Possible influence from developing strong El Niño conditions.

🟠 3. Dry Air Intrusion

Strong Western Disturbances recently moved across North India.

Dry continental air from North/Northwest India has spread southward.

Limiting cloud growth and monsoon convection.

🟢 4. Weak Somali Jet & Lack of Bay Systems

Somali Jet remains poorly developed over the Arabian Sea.

No significant Low Pressure Areas or Monsoon Depressions forming in the Bay.

No Pacific typhoon remnants entering the Bay to trigger monsoon systems.

🟣 5. Neutral IOD

Indian Ocean Dipole remains near neutral.

Currently providing neither support nor suppression to the monsoon.

📌 Overall Assessment

⚠️ The combination of: • Developing El Niño

• Suppressed MJO

• Dry air intrusion

• Weak Somali Jet

• Absence of Bay depressions

has resulted in an unusually subdued monsoon phase, with weather resembling late summer/pre-monsoon conditions across many parts of India.

Vagaries Outlook:

The next significant increase in rainfall will likely require either: 

✅ Revival of MJO activity over the Indian Ocean

✅ Strengthening of the Somali Jet

✅ Formation of a Bay Low Pressure Area/Monsoon Depression

 Monsoon season 1st to 15th June

Mumbai expected to get few pre monsoon showers from 16th..and probably Monsoon advance by 24th June. 

Pune Sizzles: Hottest And Driest First Half of June Since at Least 2014 at Shivajinagar

 The avg. maximum temperature at pune shivajinagar in june 2026 1st half is 36.6c. 

This is the hottest 1st half of june at least since 2014.

No rain occured in Pune Shivajinagar in 1st half of June. For the 1st time at least since 2014, that June 1st half of Pune went completely dry. Yearwise 1st half June total (mm) as follows

2014: 10.1

2015: 80.4

2016: 35.2

2017: 88.1

2018: 61.9

2019: 41.5

2020: 112

2021: 57.4

2022: 28

2023: 20.4

2024: 231.0

2025: 132.9

2026: 0 

 

 

 

 14th June 

Let's give credit to Delhi AQI when it's due.. Not just criticising always **↓

                                              ** ↓↓↓

The reality of today's temperatures in India... With the focus on the Monsoon, the "deadly" heat Wave is forgotten.. The highest temperature in India today is only 42.8°c.. Which incidentally is normal for the station! 

 Vagaries Extreme Blog updated with Mumbai's new rare minimum temperature record

 ENSO OUTLOOK:

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.

"Red" SST increase off the Peru coast indicates ElNino formation...not alarming increase in last 4 weeks.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

*El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027).*

Above Histogram shows intensity of El-Nino getting stronger and effective after August and more after September.

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

[El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. 

These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months]

Stronger and effective after August and more after September.

Another aspect to consider:

 In June 2015 too strong El Nino conditions were evolving but why all India rain was above normal in June 2015 with Pune too above normal rain (211.2mm) in June 2015.

Whereas June 2026 also has El Nino setup why all India rain not following June 2015 and is running -26% below normal with Pune 0mm this month so far?

In June 2015 despite evolving El Nino, there was strong MJO propagation in Indian ocean in June (blue line left figure) this enhanced monsoon activity

Whereas in June 2026 MJO is completely locked out of Indian ocean this month one if the factor of monsoon remain subdued so far.

Also 2026 El Nino development is more stronger at this time of year than 2015

There can be other differences too....

 Lastly in June 2015, SOI index value was -12, whereas June 2026 SOI index value already -22. This mean atmospheric response to El Nino in June 2026 is much stronger than June 2015

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Maharashtra Specific Monsoon Report:

Due to Image shown, the Monsoon hiatus is prevailing today:

The Monsoon "weak surge" into South Konkan and North Konkan is expected to take a "push" from 17th, resulting in convective thunder showers in scattered areas. 

 

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Mumbai Rain this season till 13th June: Colaba 04 mms (-97%)..Scruz 13 mms (-91%).

Rainfall to increase over Mumbai..(not to expect too much ) from17th to 23rd...just about 20-25 mms accumulated depending on the local rainfall...and we can hope to get the Monsoon set in by the 22nd/23rd of June..hoping that the all time late arrival date of Monsoon (25th June) is not reached this year !

Pune will see an increase in rainfall from the 17th and thunder showers in parts of Pune..though not much can be expected ..Monsoon still evasive till 23rd at least. Pune rain this season is 0 mm.

Marathwada: Some local thundershowers expected from 18th..for 3 days...maybe heavy in Southern Marathwada ( Beed, Latur, Nanded,Dharashiv (30-40 mms accumalated) regions.

Sambhajinagar may get 20-30 mms from 18th -21st..

Monsoon evasive till 24th at least.

Farmers' Advice: If the decision to sow the seeds is taken  after 16th, please note that a semi low rain period may follw till Monsoon moves in around 24th/25th. Precautions have to be taken.

मराठवाडा: १८ तारखेपासून.3 दिवसांसाठी...काही स्थानिक ठिकाणी मेघगर्जनेसह पावसाची शक्यता आहे.. 

दक्षिण मराठवाड्यात (बीड, लातूर, नांदेड, धाराशीव) मुसळधार पाऊस (३०-४० मिमी पावसाची शक्यता) पडू शकतो. 

संभजीनगर परिसरात १८ ते २१ तारखेपर्यंत २०-३० मिमी पाऊस पडेल. 

किमान २४ तारखेपर्यंत मान्सूनचा प्रादुर्भाव कमी राहील. 

शेतकऱ्यांसाठी सूचना: जर पेरणीचा निर्णय १६ तारखेनंतर घेतला असेल, तर कृपया लक्षात घ्या की २४/२५ तारखेच्या सुमारास मान्सून येईपर्यंत पावसाचा कालावधी कमी राहण्याची शक्यता आहे. खबरदारी घेणे आवश्यक आहे.