Indian Ocean Diapole... 4th August 

Positive IOD

• Temperature & Winds – The western tropical Indian Ocean becomes warmer than normal, while waters near Indonesia and Australia cool.
• Impact on India – A positive IOD frequently strengthens the Southwest Monsoon, bringing increased moisture over the Indian subcontinent which can help offset dry conditions caused by El Niño.

Currently in neutral phase. 

*IMD’s models, and some others, forecast a neutral dipole across the four monsoon months. 

*Australian Bureau of Meteorology allows a slim chance of a positive turn late in the season, in August or September. 

Positive IOD may ease impact of El Niño, improve monsoon prospects in the Peninsula Region. 

It can provide some relief by supporting better seasonal rainfall than what was expected under El Nino conditions. 

(Recollect the encouraging news on 20th May in Vagaries before the SWM set in...) Here is the story of 20th May 👇

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In a journalist's terms a "related story" 👇

Heavy overnight on 2nd/3rd August, thundershowers in Thane and Raighadh districts of Maharashtra ( Konkan) 

Rainfall in mms:

Matheran 231 mm

Kalamb 215

Khanivare 210. Badlapur 203, Anjur 193

Ambernath 190, Kalyan 180

Barvi Dam 176 (saw 5% rise in a day with 89% full as for today)  

Raghuwadi 174

Palava 168, Chikhloli 167

Tulai 166, Turbhe NaviMumbai 165

Shilphata 164

Dombivli 163, Khadavali 161

Dhasai 160, Murbad 158 

Titwala 155, Taloja 145

Dhamni 1437, Shenwa 142, Kalwa 136

Ulhasnagar 135, Padagha 133

Bhiwandi 132, Thane 129

Neral 127, Vasind 126

Tansa 124

Mulund Mumbai 114, Shelavali 116, Khapri 103

Complete information by Vag. Abhijit Modak.

TOP DISTRICTS FOR THE PERIOD 1-6-2026 to 31-7-2026 (over 1000 mm )

 

 Gujarat Rains

 1st August... 

. 

MONSOON REPORT 2026

 

Monsoon Performance 

Only July 2026 Rain topper list 👇

Tamhini 5710

Shirgaon 4884

Davdi 4868

Dongarwadi 4199

Jor 4000

Lonavala 3820

Mahabaleshwar 3737 

With a phenomenal 5,710 mm of #rainfall during July 2026 alone, Tamhini has become the first station in the SahyadriGhat region and indeed the first in the country to cross the 6,000 mm seasonal rainfall mark this SWM. 

As of 31 July 2026, Tamhini's seasonal rainfall stands at an astounding 6,079 mm.

Lonavala also appears to have recorded its wettest July on record, with an exceptional 3,820 mm of rainfall during the month.

What makes this turnaround even more remarkable is that June was exceptionally dry. 

Lonavala received only 348 mm, while Tamhini recorded just 369 mm during  June.

Map and details compiled by Vag. Abhijit

Maharashtra 

All India

 

 31st July

BB 3 MOVES WEST LEAVES VIDARBHA AND MOVES WEST INTO MARATHWADA AND GUJARAT 

Depression rains...so multi layer clouds, good rains in interiors and very cool weather

Pattern is not the usual westerlies offshore trough rains...so not necessarily Ghat matha and foothills can score centuries everywhere...instead Deccan plateau region will receive good rains from this.

Districts to watch out today - Nashik, Dhule, Ahilyanagar, Pune, Nandurbar

Vapi to Baroda stretch should be on watch for very heavy rains today into tomorrow 

Saurashtra region and Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar/Surendranagar can also score

From Vag. Shreyas Dhavale