El Nino Status

 ENSO Alert System Status:  El Niño is present 

(Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 August 2026).

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

 *The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. 

(NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña 

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

 By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

 CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly relative Niño3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. 

anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.)

The other important agency monitoring the ENSO is the Australian Government – Bureau of Meteorology.

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia:

 For declaration of an El Nino event 

SOI: The three-month average SOI is –7 or lower.

Conclusion: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Sept/Oct and Nov/dec/Jan 2026-27.

 27th August

BB 6 Persists in same region bringing good precipitation 

M.P.👇

Prominent Rainfall Amounts (in mm):

Orchha – 205.0 mm

Nalkheda – 165.0 mm

Susner – 132.0 mm

Seondha – 130.0 mm

Prithvipur – 130.0 mm

Agar – 110.0 mm

Indergarh – 110.0 mm

Moman Badodia – 105.0 mm

Niwari – 102.0 mm

Mohangarh – 95.0 mm

Sarangpur – 93.5 mm

Mau – 92.0 mm

Palera – 90.0 mm

Datia – 85.1 mm

Jatara – 84.0 mm

Lahar – 83.5 mm

Bhander – 80.0 mm

Pichhore – 80.0 mm

Lidhora – 72.0 mm

Jirapur – 65.0 mm

Sheopur – 65.0 mm

Bhanpura – 63.0 mm

Vijayraghavgarh – 58.4 mm

Nowgong – 56.0 mm

Tikamgarh – 55.0 mm

Baldeogarh – 53.0 mm

Porsa – 50.0 mm

 26th August...

Sambhajinagar: Sunny intervals with light rains at times.

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Monsoon Axis and Current Scenario:

The Monsoon axis has shifted far North today..(Red Line.).👆

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Possible that the S.W.Monsoon may show withdrawal signs from west Rajasthan from early September

1. Main Reason👇

2nd Indication: 200 jet Streams (Indicator) changing Seasonal directions on 4th Sept 👇

1. Very Moderate Rainfall in East M.P, Chatttisgarh, Odisha, Bihar, Vidharbh and N.E. states

2. Rainfall reducing in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Southern States.

Rainfall from BB 6 as explained yesterday 👇

M.P.

Karera 135.0, Narmadapuram 92.8, Orchha 83.0, Kolar 81.0, Arera Hills 74.2, Rahatli 73.0, Porsa 65.0, Narwar 63.0, Lateri 59.0, Alipur 55.0, Amanganj 55.0, Berli 54.8, Pohri 53.0, Tikamgarh 53.0, Budhni 52.0, Panna 51.1, Mohangarh 50.0, Sidhi 48.0, Budhar 47.0, Karanjiya 45.3, Chanderi 45.0, Berad 45.0, Datia 43.0, Bhopal 42.0, Kesli 41.3, Shivpuri 40.0, Gohparu 39.0, Sohagpur–Shahdol 39.0.

Rainfall commences from System..sent by Mitan from Bhubaneshwar 

23rd August :

A Low Pressure has formed in the Bay, BB 6. 

This system is too close to the shore, and may not bring  the typical rains inland. Rainfall will be restricted to Odisha, East M. P, East Vidharbh.

Konkan winds attraction to Low will hence be weak.

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Outlook for the coming week ( 24th - 28th) 

Mumbai:

Few occasional passing showers. Day night Temperatures range between 32° - 26°. Rainfall total of 5 days may stretch to 40 mms.

Pune: Partly Cloudy with sunny periods. Light passing showers in different parts. Temperatures between 28° - 22°

Sambhajinagar: Partly Cloudy with few passing showers and light rains.

Goa: Moderate showers during the week. Thursday may see some increased rain frequency.  Accumulated week's rain could be around 80 mms. 

 
General Non Weather Page updated with " El Niño and Birds" 

Mumbai Stats

Santacruz August Rainfall total as on 20th: 290 mms. (August Normal is 561 mms.) 

Colaba August Rainfall total as on 20th : 137 mms... 

(August Normal is 472 mms.) 

So, August quota not  surpassed.. With 10 days left in August... But Mumbai can expect another maximum another 100 mms In August. 

And overall season is also in excess Santacruz +24% and Colaba +10% till 20th August.

Mumbai Lakes :