5th September post

No meaningful rain expected in Maharashtra and Gujarat for the period 5th Saturday - 10th Thursday.

5th Saturday - 10th Thursday 👇

Mumbai: Passing showers may be sharp due to convection. In different parts of city. Sunny interruptions will be hot. Temperatures between 31° - 26°. Rainfall around 4 - 10 mms daily. 

Cannot confirm now, but some increase in rain frequency from 14th ( maybe with thunder) possible.

Pune : Partly Cloudy with scanty localised light to moderate rains. Temperatures between 30°-21°. Rainfall around 2-5 mms per day.

Sambhajinagar: Very little rainfall. Dry period will not be favoured for the standing crops at this stage.

Hope of thundershowers from 15thvmay be possible to be the saving factor.

संभाजीनगर: अतिशय कमी पाऊस. या टप्प्यावर उभ्या पिकांसाठी कोरडा काळ अनुकूल राहणार नाही.

१५ तारखेपासून मेघगर्जनेसह पावसाची शक्यता तारक ठरू शकते.

Bharuch : No meaningful rains expected till 13th.

--------------------------------------------------l

Meanwhile: Vagaries sees the Withdrawal of the Monsoon from West Rajasthan to commence from around 11th.The Reasoning is shown below in the 850 winds, expected jet Streams and diminishing Humidity levels.(Solely Vagaries ' views).

Clarifying some Confusions:

"Super El Niño" or"Very Strong El Nino":Latest actual and Status (31st August) 

The media and social media are abuzz with talk about the upcoming "Super" El Niño, with forecasts of drought conditions, and Heat Waves. 

Local newspapers and some amateur social media are making similar claims.

Vagaries explains there is nothing called a "Super El Nino" in the scientific world.  

If the temperature anomaly (difference from normal) of the ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is 1.5 to 2 C above normal, it is called a strong El Niño.  More than 2C, a very strong El Niño.   

The Status on 1st September 👇

The media calls this a "super"; the scientific community does not.

Below is the latest forecast by NOAA.  They are predicting a very strong El Niño this autumn (peaking around 2.2 C above normal).  

There is little doubt we will get a very strong El Nino, but this is not unprecedented, with others occurring in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024  (others have occurred before as well).

DISTRICT RAINFALL FOR PERIOD 1-6-2026 TO 31-8-2026

 

August Rainfall Below Normal, Yet Better Than Past Strong El Niño Years of 21st century

All India August 2026 rain was 16.3 % below normal.

However, August rain despite of El Nino performed better than previous strong El Ninos such as in 2009 and 2015. Data: IMD

Attached graph shows All India averaged August rain (% departure from normal) from 2000-2026.

Surplus August for Delhi

Delhi Safdarjung recorded 354.1mm rain this August which is 52% above normal. 

For 3rd consecutive year delhi august rain crossed 350mm mark. This is also the 4th highest August rain since 2011

~73% of August 2026 rain occured just in 3 days in Delhi. This highlights again monsoon rainfall is becoming more skewed with bulk of rain falling in very short time. Data IMD

Attached graph shows August rain in Delhi since 2011.

MONSOON REPORT 2026

 

Mumbai Monsoon Performance  (2026) till August end:

June: Colaba.441 mm  Scruz 416 mm

July: Colaba 1177 mm. Scuz 1492 mm

August : Colaba.163 mm... Scruz 315 mm 

( Normal for August is 570 mms for Scruz and 460 mms for Colaba.)

Driest August ever: Colaba: 83 mms( 1943): Scruz 109 mms ( 1972)

Seasonal Total 2026 (1st June - 31st Aug) 

Colaba: 1782 mms (+1%)  Scruz: 2223 mms (+14%)

Mumbai and West Coast rainfall is normally activated by Low Pressure Systems from the Bay. 

The striking feature of 2026:

The number of systems from Bay this year (2026):

June: 0 → July:3 → August:4

What really stands out is June 2026 = 0 Bay LPS  (compared with active Bay development in the previous three years. 2025 already had 3 Head Bay systems during June alone.)

Then the situation reversed in July 2026:

Number of systems; June 2026: 0 → July: 3 → August  4

That helps explain the extraordinary contrast between the very weak/delayed Maharashtra monsoon in June and the abrupt switch to very active conditions from early July.

All August systems in August encountered stiff resistance in pushing West inland Hence the west coast off shore trough did not get activated. Explaining the poor rainfall.

With No signs of very effective strong systems coming in the near future, we may see only around 300-350 mms rainfall for Mumbai in September. 

Normal for September is Colaba; 356 mms, Scruz: 384 mms