14th October Post
1. Low Pressure forming in shear zone Trough in T. N. Can bring in the NEM into Tamil Nadu on the 17th.... *See NEM note below*
2. Low pressure moves NW through T. N. into Karnataka towards South Maharashtra.
3. Heavy thundershowers in Bengaluru from 16th - 23rd.
4. Unseasonal rains expected in South Maharashtra and along Ghats on 18th - 21st.. Mahabaleshwar : Thundershower expected on 17th/18th.
5. Pune :Thundershowers expected in Pune on 19th/20/21..Heavy on 21st... Wet Dussehra.
6. Mumbai Rain expected in Mumbai from 18th - 20th...Wet Dussehra.
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*NEM Arrival Criteria :
On many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.
-The main has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.
-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.
In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.
