ENSO OUTLOOK:

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.

"Red" SST increase off the Peru coast indicates ElNino formation...not alarming increase in last 4 weeks.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

*El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027).*

Above Histogram shows intensity of El-Nino getting stronger and effective after August and more after September.

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

[El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. 

These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months]

Stronger and effective after August and more after September.

Another aspect to consider:

 In June 2015 too strong El Nino conditions were evolving but why all India rain was above normal in June 2015 with Pune too above normal rain (211.2mm) in June 2015.

Whereas June 2026 also has El Nino setup why all India rain not following June 2015 and is running -26% below normal with Pune 0mm this month so far?

In June 2015 despite evolving El Nino, there was strong MJO propagation in Indian ocean in June (blue line left figure) this enhanced monsoon activity

Whereas in June 2026 MJO is completely locked out of Indian ocean this month one if the factor of monsoon remain subdued so far.

Also 2026 El Nino development is more stronger at this time of year than 2015

There can be other differences too....

 Lastly in June 2015, SOI index value was -12, whereas June 2026 SOI index value already -22. This mean atmospheric response to El Nino in June 2026 is much stronger than June 2015

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Maharashtra Specific Monsoon Report:

Due to Image shown, the Monsoon hiatus is prevailing today:

The Monsoon "weak surge" into South Konkan and North Konkan is expected to take a "push" from 17th, resulting in convective thunder showers in scattered areas. 

 

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Mumbai Rain this season till 13th June: Colaba 04 mms (-97%)..Scruz 13 mms (-91%).

Rainfall to increase over Mumbai..(not to expect too much ) from17th to 23rd...just about 20-25 mms accumulated depending on the local rainfall...and we can hope to get the Monsoon set in by the 22nd/23rd of June..hoping that the all time late arrival date of Monsoon (25th June) is not reached this year !

Pune will see an increase in rainfall from the 17th and thunder showers in parts of Pune..though not much can be expected ..Monsoon still evasive till 23rd at least. Pune rain this season is 0 mm.

Marathwada: Some local thundershowers expected from 18th..for 3 days...maybe heavy in Southern Marathwada ( Beed, Latur, Nanded,Dharashiv (30-40 mms accumalated) regions.

Sambhajinagar may get 20-30 mms from 18th -21st..

Monsoon evasive till 24th at least.

Farmers' Advice: If the decision to sow the seeds is taken  after 16th, please note that a semi low rain period may follw till Monsoon moves in around 24th/25th. Precautions have to be taken.

मराठवाडा: १८ तारखेपासून.3 दिवसांसाठी...काही स्थानिक ठिकाणी मेघगर्जनेसह पावसाची शक्यता आहे.. 

दक्षिण मराठवाड्यात (बीड, लातूर, नांदेड, धाराशीव) मुसळधार पाऊस (३०-४० मिमी पावसाची शक्यता) पडू शकतो. 

संभजीनगर परिसरात १८ ते २१ तारखेपर्यंत २०-३० मिमी पाऊस पडेल. 

किमान २४ तारखेपर्यंत मान्सूनचा प्रादुर्भाव कमी राहील. 

शेतकऱ्यांसाठी सूचना: जर पेरणीचा निर्णय १६ तारखेनंतर घेतला असेल, तर कृपया लक्षात घ्या की २४/२५ तारखेच्या सुमारास मान्सून येईपर्यंत पावसाचा कालावधी कमी राहण्याची शक्यता आहे. खबरदारी घेणे आवश्यक आहे.

 Details and latest update on Monsoon other parameters and El Nino on this blog by 7 pm IST today

Meteorological note Monsoon rainfall progression over India to halt for the next 10 days; El Nino background conditions strengthening

Plain Language Summary:

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After a weak onset and a sluggish start, the summer monsoon rainfall is now heading towards a significant hiatus over the Indian subcontinent during the next 10 days. Numerical Weather Prediction and AI based model guidance from various modeling centers across the globe indicate that the progress of monsoon rains over India could see a temporary halt as the monsoon circulation and rainfall pattern is all set to weaken and dry air advection could take a dominant role. Rainfall is expected to be subdued across the Western Ghats, the west coast, central and major parts of western and peninsular India. This could be a serious concern for the Agrarian community as several parts of India could see a delay in the sowing activities where irrigation is not available. Models although indicate some revival after the 20th of June, uncertainty prevails as of now on the date and pattern of revival. The situation needs continuous monitoring in the days to come with El Nino strengthening along side. 

Scientific Diagnostic Reasoning:

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Analyses of the observed global tropical circulation pattern during the past 2 weeks suggests that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall onset phase found itself struggling against a backdrop of unfavorable sub seasonal and low frequency modes of tropical variability. RMM and 200 hPa Velocity Potential based MJO indices indicate that large scale eastward propagating wave saw itself working constructively with the evolving Low frequency ENSO state over the central and eastern Pacific during the past 2 weeks. The Monsoon circulation caught on to some westward propagating mode to help breath itself for a brief period to make some progress, but it could not stand against the other giant suppressing modes and eventually is giving up on further progression (temporarily). Extended range forecast charts indicate the presence of persistent lower level anticyclonic circulation and rainfall anomalies over India, and alongside dotted with some westward propagating equatorial waves in the lower latitudes. VP 200 hPa clearly indicates the strengthening El Nino conditions which could weaken the Walker circulation and hence the Monsoon in the background. The situation overall looks grim and needs continuous monitoring for management and mitigation on the agriculture and hydrological front.

10th June Post:

Monsoon shows slight advance in response to the off shore trough (explained in 9th post).

Weak current Monsoon parameters are observed,,and seemingly advancing into South Konkan soon..

.The Ratnagiri rains 👇

Compiled by Vag,Abhishek Apte

{ Outlook For Mumbai ...quoting yesterday's Post: "Mumbai with a few spells of pre Monsoon thundery showers till 18th can get accumulated 6 days rainfall (varying between Scruz & Colaba ) of 20 - 40 mms average. An isolated Thundershower may give a heavy localised shower.

Hot an humid. Temperature range 35 - 29/30°."} 

Checking on the much discussed current ''hot night " in Mumbai and Pune..

Colaba had the 6th consecutive night of a minimum temperature of 30°.. 6th -11th June..thus, as per vagaries' notes, equalling the 5 nights in 2016.

9th June:

Not much improvement in the various level wind charts since put on 7th post.

Major Monsoon wind and pressure still shy of a quick monsoon advance. 

It seems the West Coast off shore trough, though not hugging the coast,

might encourage the temporary current along the coast after 15th... 

Meaning inland regions wait.

Vagaries expects a weak advance along the coast  starting from coastal Karnataka from 15th and reaching North Konkan (Mumbai) by 18th.

But, a weak onset possible for Raigad district and Mumbai region between by 18th June.( a subdued SW Monsoon activity). 

However, if this window is missed, then onset looks likely around 20th/21st June. 

Strong dry air intrusion at 700 and 500 hPa from the NW, suppressing cloud formation over Arabian Sea and Western peninsula north of Ratnagiri district

Initially Inland Monsoon date uncertain. 

Mumbai with a few spells of pre Monsoon thundery showers till 18th can get accumulated 6 days rainfall (varying between Scruz & Colaba ) of 20 - 40 mms average. An isolated Thundershower may give a heavy localised shower.

Hot an humid. Temperature range 35 - 29/30°. 

This year the night Temperature is high for a longer sustained period of nights. Colaba had (till 9th) 4 consecutive nights of 30°. ( 2007 had 4 nights & 2016 had 5 nights of 30° night Temperatures.

Citizens are surely feeling more heat this year, even though Mumbai has been thru this before.. 35° is not new. 

Reason: We are now used to comfort of A/C more than before. Night sleep-ac car/bus-ac office-ac eating places. So, coming out in real feel 39° & 80%humidity from 21° & 50% is absolutely 😓😡

And of course our over enthusiastic press & social media. 

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Pune:: Experiencing continuous warm nights around 25/26°as the Low temperature. However all time low temperatur record is 29.4° recorded in 1979. 

Few spells of thunder showers with the odd heavy convective shower. No quick sign of Monsoon yet till 18th. 

Accumulated rainfall of next 6 days may average 15 - 30 mms. 

 7th Night Post 

Monsoon over Kerala and Southern Coastal Karnatak. 

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850 winds

A Low pressure (UAC) off Karnataka coast will activate rainfall along Karnatak Coast and South Konkan. 

This UAC will push in on 9th and bring heavy downpours and Monsoon upto Goa/South Konkan by 11th.

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Next week: 8th- 11th June

Mumbai/Pune: Humidity increasing and aggrevated by a few spells of thundershowers. 

Mumbai 35 - 29°

Pune: 38-25°

Gujarat: Spells of thundershowers in South Gujarat. Monsoon wait continues till 18th.

Marathwada farmers do not rush into sowing till 17th at least. 

Monsoon wait continues !

मराठवाड्यातील शेतकरी किमान १७ तारखेपर्यंत पेरणीची घाई करत नाहीत.

पावसाळ्याची प्रतीक्षा सुरूच आहे!

 5th June

NLM:

Monsoon Rainfall Today 

Not sufficient Depth for SW Winds and interfere of W.D. may delay further advance by few days. 

Outlook for Monsoon:

Monsoon onset in Maharashtra on dates below will be weak initially. 

Ghats and Interior Madhya Maharashtra (Pune/Nasik) 

6th to 14th...Heavy pre Monsoon thundershowers in the ghats, interiors will get the convective thundershowers on the odd day. 

Proper Monsoon around 14th.

Mumbai/Konkan: Convective pre Monsoon showers on some days from 6th to 13th. Heavier showers on 13th/14th. *Monsoon could set in by 14th.

Mumbai can receive around 350 - 400 mms in June. 

Interior Mumbai Lakes can get a late start of the Monsoon.Around 400 mms rain average for Mumbai Lakes in June. 

Marathwada :

Scattered evening pre Monsoon thundershowers will be the daily affair on the odd day till 14th. 

Sowing seeds not advisable with these pre Monsoon thundershowers, as the showers may not be regular.

If possible, field can be kept ready. Advised to wait till full monsoon arrives for sowing.

Monsoon could arrive around 18th June.

June for Marathwada could be just 100 mms. 

मराठवाडा : १४ तारखेपर्यंत अधूनमधून सायंकाळी तुरळक प्रमाणात मान्सूनपूर्व पावसाच्या सरी येतील. या मान्सूनपूर्व पावसात पेरणी करणे योग्य नाही, कारण पावसाच्या सरी नियमित नसण्याची शक्यता आहे. शक्य असल्यास शेत तयार ठेवावे. पेरणीसाठी पूर्ण मान्सून येईपर्यंत थांबण्याचा सल्ला दिला जातो. मान्सून 18 जूनच्या आसपास दाखल होण्याची शक्यता आहे.

जूनमध्ये जेमतेम १०० मिमी पाऊस पडेल.

Gujarat not expected to get proper Monsoon before 20th June. At the most some pre monsoon light showers in South Gujarat before 18th.