27th June

Current Scenario:

Good rainfall along trough 

Deficency in Maharashtra/Gujarat as on 27th June 

Mumbai day frequency rain last 4 crucial weeks

Mumbai rain frequency to increase from 1st July

Mumbai 

Pune rain frequency last 4 crucial weeks

 26th June

In short👇

In detail:👇

Current Scenario :

West Coast: winds currently not favourable for Monsoon activation.

Central India : Getting moderate rains from weak trough. 

Marathwada will get moderate to heavy thunder showers on 26/27/28 June. 

North India: Normally Hot.

Outlook:

Two typhoons will push a pulse in the Bay by 1st of July and Low will form by 2nd in North Bay.

This should activate rainfall along West Coast and Central India. 

Pulling the Monsoon further into Gujarat and M. P. 

Mumbai:

26/27/28 June: Passing showers, few heavy but not prolonged. Cumulative weekend rain average 30 - 50 mms.

Rainfall increasing from 30th June due to low pressure in Bay. 

Lakes will get increased rainfall from 30th June. 

Pune: Moderate Thundershowers on 27th/28th June /1st July. But rainfall decreasing after 1st July. 

Gujarat :Monsoon moving in South Gujarat by 1st July. 

Surat /Bharuch: Occasional showers from 1st July 

24th Night

Next 3 days Outlook for Mumbai.

Significant reduction in Mumbai Rainfall on 25th Thur, 26th Friday and 27th Saturday. 

Currently Mumbai Rainfall variations 200 - 300 mms. Next 3 days reduce to 40 - 70 mms per day.

No Alert.

24th June..

We have given a very apt name to our site "Vagaries of the Weather'

Mumbai, 1st day of Monsoon, no pre monsoon, no pre monsoon thundershowers..Straightaway 50% of June quota on day 1!  Few occasions when we were not able to estimate such huge amounts on day 1..

Localized mesoscale circulations cause such short heavy bursts of rain 

West coast rains again beats all models...no one expected such big amount 24-48 hours earlier

Also, abnormally warm Sea waters could have played a role in enhancing and sustaining cloud patches off Mumbai and north Konkan coast..

Any change in such extreme events can't be attributed to urbanization as such...natural climate also changes, with natural warming more moisture available...north Konkan and south Gujarat has always been the preferred region for such extreme events

No proper scientific reasoning is established  linking Mumbai city scale urbanization to large scale SWM extreme events

Just because these two entities increase doesn't necessarily mean one influences the other

Lakes level 7.94%..Rainfall: Tulsi: 263 mms, Vihar 142 mms.

Monsoon Arrives over Mumbai as a feeble Current...23rd June.

Mumbai Water Lakes at 8.07% Storage ..

Rainfall:Ratnagiri: 146 mms, Harnai:115 mms, Goa: 40 mms, Colaba IMD : 49 mms ,Scruz IMD: 12 mms

LakesLast Middle Vaitarna recieved 55 mms and Bhatsa, Modak:16 mms.

Mumbai's AQI super top !

Mumbai shows " Good" AQI...Of course the alarmism has ceased...naturally, nothing to find fault with😩

And ..91st most polluted in the world..( would have shouted if it was in first 10😉).

Weather outlook for the week from 22nd to 27th June.

Monsoon showing signs of revival after a long pause!

With the MJO turning neutral and the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea slowly showing signs of intensification, both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches of the monsoon are showing signs of gradual revival over the next few days. Westerlies from the Arabian Sea will strengthen, bringing rains to the west coast and Ghats and advancing the monsoon into the remaining parts of Konkan. 

An upper-air cyclonic circulation (UAC) can form in the shear zone (near 700 hPa) stretching across interior Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This could bring much needed rains for interior Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh by the middle of the upcoming week. 

Mumbai: Expecting a gradual increase in rainfall activity. Passing showers likely. 

Few areas in MMR could  witness some thundershowers. 

Next 5 days cumulative rains could be around 30-50 mm average.

Monsoon onset as a weak current is likely around 26th June (+/- 1 day), when westerly winds can align well from surface till about 4 km altitude..

 [Mumbai most delayed Monsoon ever was 25th June in 1959/2023>>>(Lets hope this date is kept intact)] could end up being the most delayed onset for Mumbai!] 

Rainfall is expected to pick up after 27th June. June may end on a rainy note, but the deficit for the month is unlikely to get covered up.

Todays total rain= 13.5 mm at Colaba and 15 mms at Scruz. So,even at the most if we get another 120 mms in June, we land up with approx 135mms in June i.e.-75%.

Pune: Hot days with increasing humidity will give rise to convective showers and thundery developments in the afternoon/evening. Rain/Thundershowers likely till around 24th June. 

Moderate-heavy rain in few areas, may not be uniformly distributed.

Monsoon onset likely between 26th to 28th June, when westerly winds align and set in over Pune region.

Konkan and Goa: Revival of Monsoon is expected. Moderate to heavy rains likely from/after 23rd June for south Konkan (Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts) and Goa. 

This upcoming week can witness around 300-400 mm cumulative for south Konkan and Goa, with some localized spots seeing higher. 

Adjoining Ghats can also start getting good rain after westerly winds strengthen towards the end of the week. 

Raigad district could also get moderate to heavy showers this week, with coastal areas likely seeing more rain than Ghat foothills.

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Many districts would see increase in rains after 23rd June. Rain/thundershowers likely during 24th to 27th June, with monsoon onset around 27th June. 

Around 60-100 mm average rain is expected in total in these regions, with eastern districts seeing more rain than western districts. 

Ch. Sambhajinagar: Some pre monsoon thundershowers likely on 24th and 25th June. Monsoon onset likely around 29th June. 

Total rainfall for June could be around 80-110 mm for Sambhajinagar-Jalna regions. 

Gujarat: The wait for proper monsoon rains will continue till the end of June. 

South Gujarat regions such as Navsari, Valsad, 

Surat can get some passing showers this upcoming week. 

Monsoon onset likely after 27th June. 

Saurashtra region, Baroda and Ahmedabad regions could get monsoon rains only by early July.