27th Night Post 

In foreign and Indian social media and the press there is a lot of discussion about rising temperature in India.

It is noteworthy  to understand that through the  Indian summer, 40°c or even 44°c is a natural  seasonal phase, not an anomaly or an unexpected event.

In this context, experiencing 40–45°C temperatures during April to June across India is not unusual, but rather a direct outcome of seasonal solar movements—something that has always been occurring, and known as "the typical lndian Summer" 

Therefore, high temperatures during this period are a " occurrence " not an exception.

In fact, Intense heating over the Sub Continent landmass leads to the formation of The Seasonal low- which is essential for the onset and advancement of the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Summer months on the Sub Continent, April, May, and early June (until the onset of the monsoon) represent the hottest period of the year across large parts of India, especially over interior Maharashtra,Karnataka Telengana and much of Central, Northern, and Eastern regions. 

This is not a recent phenomenon—it has been consistently observed for decades, supported by long-term meteorological records.

This year is no exception...in fact the heating starts and fake news of 55°c possible starts...

While this is how week by week the summer has been...see the "below normal" in the anomaly map 👇

Mostly below normal👆

Large Below Normal Areas👇

still showing below normal areas👆

Heating started after 15th April 👇

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Mumbai is currently at 34°c, considered normal. And the real feel factor, (with high humidity at 75%,) is around 38°c. 

So, nothing alarming for Mumbai! 

Yes, in the first half of April Mumbai showed higher day temperature of 37°c. But March does show high temperatures, even touching 40°c at times. 

For cities like Pune and Nashik, the long-term  average maximum temperature during peak For cities like Pune and Nashik, the long-term  average maximum temperature during peak summer is around 38°/39°C. 

Therefore, temperatures reaching 40°C or slightly higher fall well within the expected natural variability of the regional climate and should not be immediately considered abnormal.

Nagpur, the normal average maximum temperature in May is around 43°C. Hence, temperatures occasionally rising to 45–46°C are also within the natural range of variability for that region.

New Delhi and Rajasthan cities see >44° normally, so same reasoning.

April May & June (till monsoon sets)  the peak summer months.

 26th April Post

Indian Sub Continent Heats Up

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Outlook from 27th - 30th April

Mumbai: 

Hot but Humid and sweaty temperature at 34°and nights warm at 26°... Real feel temperature 39° and AQI = 150. 😓

Pune: Hot, very hot with Thunder Showers on 27th/28th. Temperature at 40° with nights at 21°

Mahabaleshwar : Hot for a hill station at 32-22° 😓

Goa:Hot humid at 34°

Sambhajinagar : Very hot and sunny.. Temperature at 42°and night at 27°. 

Akola : Even hotter at 46°

Bharuch : Hot at 40°..but better on 29th/30th at 37°.

New Delhi: A few stray Dust Storm but hot in the day at 42° and low at 27°

Monsoon Watch - 2

 🌧️ Vagaries Monsoon Watch – 2

 23rd April

1. Mascarene Highs

Forming speed is slow and inadequate at present.

The pressure gradient is yet to strengthen sufficiently to support robust cross-equatorial flow.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

2. Seasonal Low & Heat

The seasonal low (~1000 mb) is developing on expected lines for now.

Interior regions have already touched 45°C (17th April), indicating progressive heating.

Indicator: 🟢 Normal

3. Equatorial Winds

With the Mascarene High still weak, the SE winds remain south of the equator and feeble.

Cross-equatorial push is yet to establish, which is crucial for monsoon onset dynamics.

Indcator:  -ve

4. Bay Branch

No organized or strong convective systems seen in the Bay yet.

The Bay branch currently lacks momentum and structure.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

5. ENSO Status (April 2026)

Current State: ENSO Neutral

Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly

Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)

Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026

This evolution is not supportive for a strong early monsoon.

Indicator: 🔴 Strong El Niño tendency

🔎 Vagaries Summary

South West Monsoon likely delayed, especially in the Bay branch.

West Coast arrival currently estimated around 1st week of June.

Overall tilt: Slightly negative as of now.

⚠️ These assessments are based on current parameters and may evolve in the next 10 days.

19th April Weather Statistics:

Hottest Place in the World:

Akola & Wardha ( Vidarbha):  45°.

10 Hottest of 🇮🇳 India:

City Max & Min temperatures:

Mumbai AP: 34.8°c - 24.1°c

Pune: 40.7°c - 22.4°c

New Delhi Sjung: 40.1°c - 21.7°c

Kolkata AP: 35.8°c - 28.2°c

Chennai ( Meena): 37.9°c - 26.4°c

Ahmedabad: 40.0°c -26.9°c

Highest Minimum Temperature: Raipur :29.9°C

18th April Post 

Pre Monsoon Showers:

Mumbai will be Partly cloudy on Sunday 19th and Monday 20th..Light rain expected on 21st.

Thunderstorms/hailstorm is expected across Maharashtra Goa and N.I. Karnataka from 20 April.

Ghat sections extending into the Madhya Maharashtra region. 🌩️

Pune/ Nasik/Satara and Mahabaleshwar will get evening Thunder showers from 20th Monday.

Hit-or-miss Thunderstorm activity near the interior Konkan ghat base will depend and  — some areas in Konkan and Goa may benefit if cells move westward.

Rainfall likely to spread further into Marathwada an Vidarbha next week from 22nd.

A wind convergence is the cause of April showers.

Light showers on 22nd/23rd expected in South Gujarat Coast.

18th April...The Rainfall due to storm

 

16th April:

Pune – Large Diurnal Swing Continues

• Max: 39.7°C (102°F)
• Min: 17.1°C (63°F)
• Diurnal Range: 22.6°C (≈ 41°F) 

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 Regional Pattern Strengthens

Location	Max °C	Min °C	Range °C
Ahilya Nagar	41.9	17.5	24.4  ( 45F)
Pune	39.7	17.1	22.6
Nasik	38.8	16.3	22.5

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 Vagaries Insight

 Now clearly a well-defined belt of extreme diurnal variation across:
Nasik – Pune – Ahilya Nagar axis

 Signals:

• Very dry lower atmosphere
• Cloud-free skies dominating
• Strong radiational cooling at night
• Peak pre-monsoon heating building rapidly

 Vagaries Line

“A striking inland signature — blistering afternoons giving way to surprisingly cool mornings, with diurnal ranges crossing 22–24°C across the Maharashtra plateau.”