Nashik region could see some moderate-heavier rains in few areas of the district. Dhule/Jalgaon/Nandurbar could get moderate rain, with localized heavy showers.

Marathwada: Moderate to heavy rains for northern districts such as Ch. Sambhajinagar and Jalna on 12th and 13th September.

 Around 60 mms cumulatively on 13th and 14th.

मराठवाडा: १२ आणि १३ सप्टेंबर रोजी च. संभाजीनगर आणि जालना यांसारख्या उत्तर भारतातील जिल्ह्यांमध्ये मध्यम ते जोरदार पावसाची शक्यता. १३ आणि १४ सप्टेंबर रोजी एकूण सुमारे ६० मिमी पावसाची शक्यता.

Convergence in the western/southwestern sector of the low will likely lead to heavier rains for parts of north Maharashtra and south Gujarat on 13th/14th September. A few places may get around 100-150 mm of rain or more in a day. 

Final push of SW Monsoon 2026 - last active spell to bring rains across Maharashtra and Gujarat before the withdrawal journey commences!

Maharashtra and Gujarat have seen a very dry August and early September, with skies turning mostly clear since last few days. 

However, rainy weather is set to return from Sunday, 13th September onwards. The active spell begins with the formation of  BB 9, a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal near south Odisha/north Andhra Pradesh coast on Friday, 11th.

The low is expected to move quickly westwards and could reach Gujarat by early next week. 

• Rains to increase for Vidarbha region on 11th/12th, followed by Madhya Pradesh during 11th to 13th, with west MP seeing more rains on 12th/13th. 

• Moist easterly/southeasterly winds due to the low BB 9 will blow across Gangetic plains across Delhi NCR and into Punjab/Rajasthan. South of the low center will see moist westerly winds from the Arabian Sea feeding in moisture.

Gujarat: Heavy rains likely in Surat/Bharuch regions. Moderate to heavy rain possible near Baroda and across Saurashtra and Kutch regions. Coastal Saurashtra could see heavy rains in some areas. Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar could receive light to moderate rains. Cumulative rain totals from 13th to 15th can reach/exceed 100-150 mm in parts of Saurashtra and Surat region, with a few places seeing above 200 mm as well.

South Konkan and Goa won't benefit much from this low pressure. Warm and humid days, partly cloudy weather with occasional light passing showers expected. 

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Vagaries estimates SW Monsoon will begin its withdrawal journey from extreme west Rajasthan from 15th September. 

Further withdrawal from the northwest and northern parts of the country could happen next week. 

More updates on monsoon withdrawal in next week.

 The Water supply scenarios on :... 9th September

.. 

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In the "Vagaries Climate Change: Pros and Cons" blog

 

Indonesia's Anak Krakatau Volcano Eruption Hits 300 Flights, Schools Shut As Ash Soars 50,000 Feet..

https://x.com/WMO/status/2096595065871188056/video/1

6th September 

The Low is stuck because of 700 resistance winds..

5th September post

No meaningful rain expected in Maharashtra and Gujarat for the period 5th Saturday - 10th Thursday.

5th Saturday - 10th Thursday 👇

Mumbai: Passing showers may be sharp due to convection. In different parts of city. Sunny interruptions will be hot. Temperatures between 31° - 26°. Rainfall around 4 - 10 mms daily. 

Cannot confirm now, but some increase in rain frequency from 14th ( maybe with thunder) possible.

Pune : Partly Cloudy with scanty localised light to moderate rains. Temperatures between 30°-21°. Rainfall around 2-5 mms per day.

Sambhajinagar: Very little rainfall. Dry period will not be favoured for the standing crops at this stage.

Hope of thundershowers from 15thvmay be possible to be the saving factor.

संभाजीनगर: अतिशय कमी पाऊस. या टप्प्यावर उभ्या पिकांसाठी कोरडा काळ अनुकूल राहणार नाही.

१५ तारखेपासून मेघगर्जनेसह पावसाची शक्यता तारक ठरू शकते.

Bharuch : No meaningful rains expected till 13th.

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Meanwhile: Vagaries sees the Withdrawal of the Monsoon from West Rajasthan to commence from around 11th.The Reasoning is shown below in the 850 winds, expected jet Streams and diminishing Humidity levels.(Solely Vagaries ' views).

Clarifying some Confusions:

"Super El Niño" or"Very Strong El Nino":Latest actual and Status (31st August) 

The media and social media are abuzz with talk about the upcoming "Super" El Niño, with forecasts of drought conditions, and Heat Waves. 

Local newspapers and some amateur social media are making similar claims.

Vagaries explains there is nothing called a "Super El Nino" in the scientific world.  

If the temperature anomaly (difference from normal) of the ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is 1.5 to 2 C above normal, it is called a strong El Niño.  More than 2C, a very strong El Niño.   

The Status on 1st September 👇

The media calls this a "super"; the scientific community does not.

Below is the latest forecast by NOAA.  They are predicting a very strong El Niño this autumn (peaking around 2.2 C above normal).  

There is little doubt we will get a very strong El Nino, but this is not unprecedented, with others occurring in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024  (others have occurred before as well).

DISTRICT RAINFALL FOR PERIOD 1-6-2026 TO 31-8-2026