MONSOON REPORT 2026

 

Mumbai Monsoon Performance  (2026) till August end:

June: Colaba.441 mm  Scruz 416 mm

July: Colaba 1177 mm. Scuz 1492 mm

August : Colaba.163 mm... Scruz 315 mm 

( Normal for August is 570 mms for Scruz and 460 mms for Colaba.)

Driest August ever: Colaba: 83 mms( 1943): Scruz 109 mms ( 1972)

Seasonal Total 2026 (1st June - 31st Aug) 

Colaba: 1782 mms (+1%)  Scruz: 2223 mms (+14%)

Mumbai and West Coast rainfall is normally activated by Low Pressure Systems from the Bay. 

The striking feature of 2026:

The number of systems from Bay this year (2026):

June: 0 → July:3 → August:4

What really stands out is June 2026 = 0 Bay LPS  (compared with active Bay development in the previous three years. 2025 already had 3 Head Bay systems during June alone.)

Then the situation reversed in July 2026:

Number of systems; June 2026: 0 → July: 3 → August  4

That helps explain the extraordinary contrast between the very weak/delayed Maharashtra monsoon in June and the abrupt switch to very active conditions from early July.

All August systems in August encountered stiff resistance in pushing West inland Hence the west coast off shore trough did not get activated. Explaining the poor rainfall.

With No signs of very effective strong systems coming in the near future, we may see only around 300-350 mms rainfall for Mumbai in September. 

Normal for September is Colaba; 356 mms, Scruz: 384 mms

Third driest August for Pune in a decade

Pune (Shivajinagar) recorded only 84.5mm rain this August which is significantly below normal and it is the 3rd driest Aug. in Pune in last decade 

See attached graph of Aug. total rain from 2016-2026.

Data IMD

It has been 30 days in a row now since pune recorded double digit rain.

Yearwise Number of double digit rain days in Pune in last deacde in the month of August

2026: 1

2025: 3

2024: 11

2023: 0

2022: 6

2021: 0

2020: 8

2019: 5

2018: 0

2017: 4

2016: 4

El Nino Status

 ENSO Alert System Status:  El Niño is present 

(Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 August 2026).

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

 *The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. 

(NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña 

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

 By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

 CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly relative Niño3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. 

anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.)

The other important agency monitoring the ENSO is the Australian Government – Bureau of Meteorology.

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia:

 For declaration of an El Nino event 

SOI: The three-month average SOI is –7 or lower.

Conclusion: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Sept/Oct and Nov/dec/Jan 2026-27.

 27th August

BB 6 Persists in same region bringing good precipitation 

M.P.👇

Prominent Rainfall Amounts (in mm):

Orchha – 205.0 mm

Nalkheda – 165.0 mm

Susner – 132.0 mm

Seondha – 130.0 mm

Prithvipur – 130.0 mm

Agar – 110.0 mm

Indergarh – 110.0 mm

Moman Badodia – 105.0 mm

Niwari – 102.0 mm

Mohangarh – 95.0 mm

Sarangpur – 93.5 mm

Mau – 92.0 mm

Palera – 90.0 mm

Datia – 85.1 mm

Jatara – 84.0 mm

Lahar – 83.5 mm

Bhander – 80.0 mm

Pichhore – 80.0 mm

Lidhora – 72.0 mm

Jirapur – 65.0 mm

Sheopur – 65.0 mm

Bhanpura – 63.0 mm

Vijayraghavgarh – 58.4 mm

Nowgong – 56.0 mm

Tikamgarh – 55.0 mm

Baldeogarh – 53.0 mm

Porsa – 50.0 mm

 26th August...

Sambhajinagar: Sunny intervals with light rains at times.

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Monsoon Axis and Current Scenario:

The Monsoon axis has shifted far North today..(Red Line.).👆

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Possible that the S.W.Monsoon may show withdrawal signs from west Rajasthan from early September

1. Main Reason👇

2nd Indication: 200 jet Streams (Indicator) changing Seasonal directions on 4th Sept 👇

1. Very Moderate Rainfall in East M.P, Chatttisgarh, Odisha, Bihar, Vidharbh and N.E. states

2. Rainfall reducing in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Southern States.

Rainfall from BB 6 as explained yesterday 👇

M.P.

Karera 135.0, Narmadapuram 92.8, Orchha 83.0, Kolar 81.0, Arera Hills 74.2, Rahatli 73.0, Porsa 65.0, Narwar 63.0, Lateri 59.0, Alipur 55.0, Amanganj 55.0, Berli 54.8, Pohri 53.0, Tikamgarh 53.0, Budhni 52.0, Panna 51.1, Mohangarh 50.0, Sidhi 48.0, Budhar 47.0, Karanjiya 45.3, Chanderi 45.0, Berad 45.0, Datia 43.0, Bhopal 42.0, Kesli 41.3, Shivpuri 40.0, Gohparu 39.0, Sohagpur–Shahdol 39.0.