Weather outlook for the week from 22nd to 27th June.

Monsoon showing signs of revival after a long pause!

With the MJO turning neutral and the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea slowly showing signs of intensification, both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches of the monsoon are showing signs of gradual revival over the next few days. Westerlies from the Arabian Sea will strengthen, bringing rains to the west coast and Ghats and advancing the monsoon into the remaining parts of Konkan. 

An upper-air cyclonic circulation (UAC) can form in the shear zone (near 700 hPa) stretching across interior Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This could bring much needed rains for interior Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh by the middle of the upcoming week. 

Mumbai: Expecting a gradual increase in rainfall activity. Passing showers likely. 

Few areas in MMR could  witness some thundershowers. 

Next 5 days cumulative rains could be around 30-50 mm average.

Monsoon onset as a weak current is likely around 26th June (+/- 1 day), when westerly winds can align well from surface till about 4 km altitude..

 [Mumbai most delayed Monsoon ever was 25th June in 1959/2023>>>(Lets hope this date is kept intact)] could end up being the most delayed onset for Mumbai!] 

Rainfall is expected to pick up after 27th June. June may end on a rainy note, but the deficit for the month is unlikely to get covered up.

Todays total rain= 13.5 mm at Colaba and 15 mms at Scruz. So,even at the most if we get another 120 mms in June, we land up with approx 135mms in June i.e.-75%.

Pune: Hot days with increasing humidity will give rise to convective showers and thundery developments in the afternoon/evening. Rain/Thundershowers likely till around 24th June. 

Moderate-heavy rain in few areas, may not be uniformly distributed.

Monsoon onset likely between 26th to 28th June, when westerly winds align and set in over Pune region.

Konkan and Goa: Revival of Monsoon is expected. Moderate to heavy rains likely from/after 23rd June for south Konkan (Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts) and Goa. 

This upcoming week can witness around 300-400 mm cumulative for south Konkan and Goa, with some localized spots seeing higher. 

Adjoining Ghats can also start getting good rain after westerly winds strengthen towards the end of the week. 

Raigad district could also get moderate to heavy showers this week, with coastal areas likely seeing more rain than Ghat foothills.

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Many districts would see increase in rains after 23rd June. Rain/thundershowers likely during 24th to 27th June, with monsoon onset around 27th June. 

Around 60-100 mm average rain is expected in total in these regions, with eastern districts seeing more rain than western districts. 

Ch. Sambhajinagar: Some pre monsoon thundershowers likely on 24th and 25th June. Monsoon onset likely around 29th June. 

Total rainfall for June could be around 80-110 mm for Sambhajinagar-Jalna regions. 

Gujarat: The wait for proper monsoon rains will continue till the end of June. 

South Gujarat regions such as Navsari, Valsad, 

Surat can get some passing showers this upcoming week. 

Monsoon onset likely after 27th June. 

Saurashtra region, Baroda and Ahmedabad regions could get monsoon rains only by early July. 

 21st June 

Light pre monsoon showers in parts of Mumbai 

 As on 19th June

 20th June

*Asian Monsoon circulation weakens and monsoon rainfall halt continues; monsoon progression hiatus crosses 11 days over many parts of peninsular India* :

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Summary

 Monsoon rainfall over India did not make any further progression over the last several days. The monsoon Northern Limit) remains stationary and the hiatus in monsoon progression has now crossed more than 11 days over several parts of peninsular India and almost close to a week over the eastern parts of India. 

All India cumulative monsoon rainfall departure as on 19th June 2026 since the 1st of June stands at an alarming -41% and in particular over central India (core monsoon zone) where agricultural activities rely more on monsoon rainfall directly, stands at -64%.

Early drought like conditions can set in over western parts of Maharashtra, where the rainfall departure value in several districts are more than 90% on the negative side. 

To end on a slight positive note, models have started indicating signs of monsoon revival (though weak) by the last week of June. This developing news and situation needs continuous monitoring. 

(Contributed by Vag. Gokul) 

Major cities like Mumbai and Pune in the state have started feeling water crisis with available water depleting faster as days progress. 

Mumbai Lakes at 9.33% of storage levels. Enough for 40 days. 

Pune Dams at approximately 20%.

Maharashtra Dams at approximately 24%.

Mumbai Colaba is - 96%, with 2 mm of rain. Scruz - 98% in deficit with 13 mms... Pune is - 100% with 0 mm as yet....Mahabaleshwar is  - 93% with 33 mms

Driest June ever: Colaba in 2014 with 55 mm... Scruz in 1995 with 82 mms... Pune in 1947 with 1.3 mm. 

Weather Note for Maharashtra

 19th June

Wait for Monsoon continues..

Mumbai, passing 2-3 showers/day from 21-24June. Further increase in rain from 25 June but will not be very heavy.

June rainfall till 19th:Colaba is 4mms, -98%, and Scruz is 12 mms, -95%

Mumbai Water storage is at 

  9.67% (2026) .

10.19% (2025) . 

   5.35%(2024)

Weak current Monsoon may arrive by 24th.. Expect at the most 100 mms end June.. Meaning -80%. 

Less current in Lakes till June end. 

Pune /Nashik: Wait for rain to continue with rain unlikely at least till 23 June. From 24 June onwards Pune too chance of rain are increasing.

Pune Rainfall this June 0 mms (-100%)

Pune Nashik Satara catchments: No major rain till 25 June at least. However, increase in rain post 25 June is on cards. Note: It may not be extremely heavy.

Maharashtra interiors including Marathwada: No significant rain till 24 June at least.

Vagaries' Note:

MJO may remain in suppressed form in next 7 days, however it may not cause a positive or negative impact over monsoon rain.

700 hPa likely to remain disorganized at north Konkan latitude in next 5 days, which is not supporting monsoon rain.

Gradual improvement in moisture supply over Konkan after 21 June

 W.Ds bring cooler weather in North India while Peninsula awaiting Monsoon..see Current Weather Page

16th June 2026

Why Has the Monsoon Gone Quiet?

Current Atmospheric & Oceanic Factors Behind the Lull

🔴 1. Atmosphere Responding to Developing El Niño

Nino 3.4 SST anomalies continue to warm.

SOI remains strongly negative.

Indicates atmospheric circulation is already aligning with El Niño conditions.

🔵 2. Suppressed MJO Activity

Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak and away from the Indian Ocean.

Reduced tropical convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Possible influence from developing strong El Niño conditions.

🟠 3. Dry Air Intrusion

Strong Western Disturbances recently moved across North India.

Dry continental air from North/Northwest India has spread southward.

Limiting cloud growth and monsoon convection.

🟢 4. Weak Somali Jet & Lack of Bay Systems

Somali Jet remains poorly developed over the Arabian Sea.

No significant Low Pressure Areas or Monsoon Depressions forming in the Bay.

No Pacific typhoon remnants entering the Bay to trigger monsoon systems.

🟣 5. Neutral IOD

Indian Ocean Dipole remains near neutral.

Currently providing neither support nor suppression to the monsoon.

📌 Overall Assessment

⚠️ The combination of: • Developing El Niño

• Suppressed MJO

• Dry air intrusion

• Weak Somali Jet

• Absence of Bay depressions

has resulted in an unusually subdued monsoon phase, with weather resembling late summer/pre-monsoon conditions across many parts of India.

Vagaries Outlook:

The next significant increase in rainfall will likely require either: 

✅ Revival of MJO activity over the Indian Ocean

✅ Strengthening of the Somali Jet

✅ Formation of a Bay Low Pressure Area/Monsoon Depression