Changing Outlook from 17th to 22nd..

The monsoon Axis agrees to move a south as WML fizzing out! 

"The Well Marked Low " has moved in and the associated trough covers East India. As the WML fizzles out, the SW winds along West Coast will gain strength and rainfall can increase along Konkan, Goa and South Gujarat Coast.

Mumbai: Outlook till Wednesday 22nd  An increase in rain frequencies from 18th or 19th as the WML loosens it's grip.

Frequent Heavy showers from 18th/19th with gusty 40-50 kmph gusts.

Pune: Occasionally receiving moderate to light drizzles after 21st. Temperatures range around 28° - 22°.

Rainfall increasing moderately in Bharuch, Surat and Valsad from 18th.

Rains continue in Odisha till 22nd. 

 Outlook / Forecast coming up by 9.30 pm IST

16th July El Nino status

El Niño is present.

 Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. 

El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

 CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly relative Niño3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. 

These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Rainfall anomaly till 14th July...compiled by Vag. Vineet Singh

Rain (mm) so far in several cities of maharashtra (% departure from normal)

Ratnagiri 1239 (-7.8%)

Akola 148.7(-38.5%)

Yeotmal 238(-22.5%)

Wardha 243.8(-24.8%)

Chandrapur 357 (-5.2%)

Nagpur 252.4 (-25%)

Parbhani 139.8 (-46.1%)

Nanded 126.7 (-48.7%)

Solapur 115.9 (-31.9%)

       20 Years of Vagaries — A New Chapter...

A New "VoW"

 Begins

Twenty years ago, in July 2006, Vagaries of the Weather began as a simple weather blog driven by one passion—to understand, analyse, and explain the atmosphere in a way that everyone could appreciate.

As we celebrate this remarkable 20-year 

milestone, we  are proud to unveil a new logo.

Our new logo is not a departure from our 

heritage—it is a natural evolution of it. 

Our refreshed identity represents growth, 

progress, and our commitment to staying relevant in an ever-

evolving digital world. 

Designed for today's platforms while inspired by our heritage, the 

new logo reflects who we are today and where 

we aspire to be tomorrow.

Our identity has evolved. Our commitment remains 

unchanged journey.

To every reader, follower, contributor, and weather enthusiast who has 

been part of this journey—thank you. Your trust, encouragement, and support have made these twenty years possible.

As we step into our 

third decade, we 

look ahead with renewed energy, 

fresh ideas, and the same enduring passion for 

understanding the weather.

This is how the country's rainfall in the past 24 hours looked like. Almost no rainfall in about 80 to 85 % of the total landmass

Reasons for Break Monsoon Scenario as on 13th JULY          

 👇

925 LEVEL

700 level

HUMIDITY MAP>>DRY AIR INTRUSION👇

 12th Night Posting

The current scenario shows a" Break Monsoon" conditions.

"Break Monsoon " means enhanced rainfall along the Axis which has moved much North of the normal position...and much reduced rainfall South of the Axis... (see images).

East U. P. got excessive rains. 

The overall scene

Monsoon Axis and break conditions expected to remain till 18th July.

Mumbai: As on 12th, rainfall at Colaba Station +61% and at Scruz Station +77%.

Lakes at 49% storage.. or till 15th December 2026.

Outlook for week 13th - 17th

Mumbai will get few passing showers, few short duration and heavy. No persistent Rainfall. No meaningful rains till 17th. Day will hot and night stuffy.

Pune/Sambhajinagar : No meaningful rains this week, in fact almost dry. Hotter days.

Crops can survive this week as soil is wet and storage just enough. (Marathwada crops today 👇)