14th Evening Chart

 

Maharashtra/Gujarat Current Monsoon Outlook and till 20th September;

13th Night Post:

The current rain, as explained in previous post was due to the winds from the Arabian sea rushing towards the Low (as shown in the video).

The low pressure is expected to weaken, thus reducing the "pull" effect, and resulting in lower rainfall over North Maharashtra on Monday 14th.

The south west Monsoon likely to commence its withdrawal from West Rajasthan from 17th/18th September.

Mumbai: The Monsoon feel was felt on13th,with very frequent showers in Mumbai .

The Mumbai rainfall in the day from 7.30am -7.30 pm was as shown below:(MCGM)

Malpa School Andheri: 99 mms, Juhu Dispensary & Marol: 96 mms,  supari Tank School Bandra: 94 mms, Chembur: 92 mms, MCNR Powai 90 mms, Malabar Hilll: 70 mms, Grant Road & Colaba: 62 mms, Worli 59 mms, Sewri 52 mms, 

Mumbai Lakes Storage healthy at almost 97%

After a day of frequent rains, Monday will see a decrease in rain frequency. in fact, interspersed with bright periods. The rain amounts on 14th Monday could be half of 13th Sunday rainfall.

This spell could be the final spell of  meaningful rains . we can expect the withdrawal evening thundershowers to commence over Mumbai after 21st September..in to first week of October.

Pune: Due to the weakening of the low pressure over M.P./Gujarat, Pune did not get the much anticipated showers. 

Pune Dams Storage healthy at 96%.

No major meaningful rains expected in Pune next 7 days. Thundershowers could be expected after 20th September.

Sambhajinagar: expecting a decrease in rainfall from 14th..and very little rain till 20th at least.

Goa: Not much effect of the System seen in Goa. No meaningful rains in Goa from 15th till 21st. withdrawal thundershowers from 21st September.

Gujarat: Gujarat Region and Saurashtra will see diminishing rainfall after 15th. Infact, withdrawal conditions may effect Kutch after 21st September. Rest of Gujarat will get warmer.

.Bharuch: Rainfall decreasing from Tuesday 15th, and very little rains hence till end of the Month.

 MMR rainfall as on 13th Morning last 24 hrs...

Last 24-hour #rainfall ending 8:30 AM of 13 #September 2026: 🌧️

Compiled by Vag. Abhijit 

#Bhayandar 145 mm

#Borivali 137

#Dahisar 128

#Vasai 127

#Malvani 116

#Kandivali 109

#Palghar 106

#Vandre 100

#Mankhurd 99

#Belapur 95

#Powai 92

#Vikhroli 90

#Malad 89

#Ghatkopar 84

#Dadar 83

#SCZ #IMD 79

#Shiv 74

#Mulund 73

#Goregaon 72

#Bhandup 71

#Wadala 70

#Thane 69 

#Chembur 67

#Bhyakhala 63

#Nerul 58

#CSMT 52

Nashik region could see some moderate-heavier rains in few areas of the district. Dhule/Jalgaon/Nandurbar could get moderate rain, with localized heavy showers.

Marathwada: Moderate to heavy rains for northern districts such as Ch. Sambhajinagar and Jalna on 12th and 13th September.

 Around 60 mms cumulatively on 13th and 14th.

मराठवाडा: १२ आणि १३ सप्टेंबर रोजी च. संभाजीनगर आणि जालना यांसारख्या उत्तर भारतातील जिल्ह्यांमध्ये मध्यम ते जोरदार पावसाची शक्यता. १३ आणि १४ सप्टेंबर रोजी एकूण सुमारे ६० मिमी पावसाची शक्यता.

Convergence in the western/southwestern sector of the low will likely lead to heavier rains for parts of north Maharashtra and south Gujarat on 13th/14th September. A few places may get around 100-150 mm of rain or more in a day. 

Final push of SW Monsoon 2026 - last active spell to bring rains across Maharashtra and Gujarat before the withdrawal journey commences!

Maharashtra and Gujarat have seen a very dry August and early September, with skies turning mostly clear since last few days. 

However, rainy weather is set to return from Sunday, 13th September onwards. The active spell begins with the formation of  BB 9, a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal near south Odisha/north Andhra Pradesh coast on Friday, 11th.

The low is expected to move quickly westwards and could reach Gujarat by early next week. 

• Rains to increase for Vidarbha region on 11th/12th, followed by Madhya Pradesh during 11th to 13th, with west MP seeing more rains on 12th/13th. 

• Moist easterly/southeasterly winds due to the low BB 9 will blow across Gangetic plains across Delhi NCR and into Punjab/Rajasthan. South of the low center will see moist westerly winds from the Arabian Sea feeding in moisture.

Gujarat: Heavy rains likely in Surat/Bharuch regions. Moderate to heavy rain possible near Baroda and across Saurashtra and Kutch regions. Coastal Saurashtra could see heavy rains in some areas. Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar could receive light to moderate rains. Cumulative rain totals from 13th to 15th can reach/exceed 100-150 mm in parts of Saurashtra and Surat region, with a few places seeing above 200 mm as well.

South Konkan and Goa won't benefit much from this low pressure. Warm and humid days, partly cloudy weather with occasional light passing showers expected. 

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Vagaries estimates SW Monsoon will begin its withdrawal journey from extreme west Rajasthan from 15th September. 

Further withdrawal from the northwest and northern parts of the country could happen next week. 

More updates on monsoon withdrawal in next week.

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https://x.com/WMO/status/2096595065871188056/video/1

6th September 

The Low is stuck because of 700 resistance winds..