Low mentioned active...

Satara district thunderstorm rainfall figures today(6th May, 2021) are as follows:

1.Bamnoli:107mms

2.Ambawade(Patan):56mms

3. Kaas:51mms

4.Sonat(Mahabaleshwar):43mms

5.Urmodi:39mms

6.Belewade(Patan):38mms

7.Mahabaleshwar & Shirdhon(Koregaon):32mms

8.Tarali(Patan):24mms

9.Nagthane:22mms

10.Malewadi(Koregaon):21mms

11.Pratapgad(Mahabaleshwar):20mms

12.Jor(Wai):18mms

13.Kanher(Jawali):15mms

14.Sandvali:9mms

Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

 Posted 6th May Thursday:

The LWD from south Maharashtra to South Kerala has an embedded UAC around North Interior Karnatak.

The LWD is strengthening in south Maharashtra and Interior Karnataka since last few days as mentioned in this blog.

Resultantly: 

On Friday 7th and on 8th Saturday and Sunday 9th:

Thunder Showers are expected in Interior Maharashtra ( Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada , Vidharbh and South Konkan. and of course Goa

Particularly heavy falls expected in Satara , Kolhapur and Pune Districts and Goa.

Pune to get late thunder showers on 6th (in some parts) and in all areas on 7th, 8th and 9th.

Mumbai : Warm, sultry and very stuffy. Feel of humidity will be more as the Real Feel Temperatures due to high humidity will be 39c. Partly cloudy weather expected. Light drizzles in some parts on Saturday/Sunday evening.

And the South Madhya Maharashtra pre monsoon continues...

Satara district thunderstorm rainfall figures today(5th May, 2021) are as follows:

1.Ambawade(Patan):60mms

2. Yelgaon(Karad):41mms

3.Wathar(Karad):33mms

4.Belewade(Patan):32mms

5.Navaja(Patan):19mms

6.Urmodi:16mms

7.Nagthane:13mms

8.Targaon(Koregaon):12mms

9.Chaphal(Patan):8mms

N. I. Karnatak thunder showers Wednesday evening.. LWD extended

These LWD pre monsoon showers will affect Monsoon progress up the West Coast if the seasonal low is delayed.

LWD thunder showers strengthening....South Madhya Maharashtra and adjoining NI Karnataka receives copious rains!

Kolhapur district thunderstorm rainfall today(4th May, 2021) as follows:

1.Kumbhi Dam Site(Gaganbawada):133mms

2. Dudhganga Nagar(Radhanagari):111mms

3.Gaganbawada:55mms

4.Kadvi Dam Site(Shahuwadi):41mms

5.Wadange(Karveer):37mms

6.Mandukali(Gaganbawada):30mms

7.Sangli:17mms

8.Padsali(Radhanagari):15mms

9.Dajipur(Radhanagari):13mms

Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

LWD active in Madhya Maharashtra, and as mentioned on 29th, increase from 1st...

Some rainfall figures of today(2nd May, 2021) for Kolhapur, Satara and Pune districts below is as follows:

Kolhapur district:

1.Dudhganga Nagar(Radhanagari):131mms

2.Mandukali(Gaganbawda):97mms

3.Kadavi Dam(Shahuwadi):37mms

4.Waki(Radhanagari):26mms

5.Padsali(Radhanagari):25mms

6.Tandulwadi(Panhala):21mms

7.Dajipur(Radhanagari):19mms

8.Savarde(Radhanagari):15mms

Satara district:

1.Dhom(Wai):50mms

2.Bamnoli:48mms

3.Kaas:44mms

4.Sandvali:36mms

5.Urmodi:34mms

6.Sonat(Mahabaleshwar):33mms

7.Yelgaon(Karad):31mms

8.Koyna Nagar:27mms

9.Kanher(Koregaon):26mms

10.Tarali(Patan):21mms

Pune district:

1.IITM(Pashan):36mms

2.Yedgaon(Junnar):30mms

3.Dimbhe(Shirur):29mms

4.Shivajinagar(IMD):27mms

5.Madh(Junnar):21mms

6.Chaskaman(Khed):17mms

7.Dimbhe(Ambegaon):15mms

8.Wadgaon Sheri:14.5mms

9.Yerwada:11mms

10.Nira Deoghar(Bhor):10mms

11.Manikdoh Dam(Junnar):7mms

12.Magarpatta:5.5mms

Data Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

For MW 3, see below

 Monsoon Watch – 3 ...2021 .....2nd May 2021

Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1,MW-2.

Position as on 2nd May :

1.Cross Equatorial Winds :
Let me explain, that the winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. i) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and ii) moving into the Bay of Bengal.

Click on Pic to enlarge

Eastern Sector ..not yet developed..No Low seen till 10th May.

Indicator: Lower -ve.

2. Seasonal Low:

The NW plains heating picked up initially, but stabilised again, as WDs started streaming in.

After the early summer onslaught, the heat steadied a bit over the North and west subcontinent between MW-2 and MW-3 period. Central India became near normal (No heat wave)

Minimums below Normal

Indicator: -ve

3.ENSO:

The ENSO Outlook is INACTIVE. This means the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral with no indication that El Niño or La Niña will develop in the coming months.

A transition from Weak La Niña to ENSO-Neutral is likely in the next month or so, with an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral during May-July 2021.

Indicator : Neutral

4.ITCZ/LWD:

To bring the existing SE winds above the equator (as SW) , the ITCZ should move northwards. Currently it is just North of the equator. During late April , it oscillated between equator to 5N.

A LWD in the central peninsula region "looks after" the moisture content in the interior areas, and prepares the atmosphere with the humidity required. In reality, this LWD remains till June, in variable phases, and finally merges with the Monsoon trough (axis)/ITCZ  when the ITCZ moves towards the Sub Continent.

Currently, the Line of Wind Dis-continuity is located as a trough, through the peninsula, from Madhya Maharashtra towards Kerala.

Outbreaks of pre- monsoon thunder showers which are expected normally in the southern states and South Maharashtra, are good this year.

Indicator: +ve

5.Jet Streams :

The 200 hpa Jet streams over the subcontinent is the additional parameter to be watched from MW-3 .

The jet streams are to be followed as the westerly jet core shifts to the north and easterly jet stream is formed, over the course of late summer, progressively from south to north of the subcontinent , heralding the progress of south-west monsoon over the subcontinent.

Currently are weakly dis organised  south of 8 N latitude, and Westerly North of 8N in the Araban Sea sector.

In the Bay, they are Just Easterly around 95E.They are required to strengthen to easterlies at those latitudes in the coming days, for heralding the SWM to the South Andaman Sea.

*But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next  MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where are.

Looking at the current parameters,  the South West Monsoon arrival dates for Andaman will be on Schedule and Kerala a bit early as of now. 

South Andamans: 17th May

Andamans Islands : 22nd May

Maldives:  26th/27th May 

Sri Lanka: 28th/29st May

Kerala &NE States: 31st May +- 2 days.

Monsoon Watch is reflecting Vagaries' views..Monsoon Watch should not be used/depended upon commercially or otherwise. Monsoon Watch Series may differ from other models.

 LWD.. Thursday 29th evening

Posted 29th Afternoon:

The LWD persists today from N.I. Karnatak thru to Kerala...So thunder showers will continue from 29th-4th May...Pre Monsoon showers.

As the LWD stretches into Interior Mah, we see thunder showers with hail again in Madhya Mah and Vidharbh from 30th..gradually increasing from 1st May....Pre Monsoon Showers.

*Real feel of any temperature in their forecast means how the temperature will feel to your body. Basically, temperatures that thermometers record and the that our body feels can be different under wind/humidity/cloud conditions etc.

Mumbai: Hot, Sultry, pre monsoon weather...Real Feel* Temperature* around 39c. 

Pune: Warm for 2 days, around 36/37c, with Real Feel* at 38c. But thunder showers again from 30th..and increasing from 1st -4th May. Pre Monsoon showers. Cool during rains.

Mahableshwar: Thunder showers likely in afternoon/night from 30th-4th May. Day temperature around 32c but nights around 18/19c.

Surat: Warm days , 37c. Light rains expected on 2nd May.

Bharuch: Hot, with warm winds. 41c...Some rains expected on 2nd May.

New Delhi: Hot, at 42c with warm winds. Thunder shower expected only on 3rd/4th May.

Jabalpur: Temperatures around 41c, next 3 days..Some rains expected on 2nd/3rd May.

From 1st May - 4th May, we see thundershowers into South Chattisgarh, adjoining M.P, and Odisha...with gusty winds.

Monsoon Arrival seems early at Kerala...seems..

More in next Monsoon Watch about arrival date on 2nd May.

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