20 Years of Vagaries — A New Chapter...

A New "VoW"

 Begins

Twenty years ago, in July 2006, Vagaries of the Weather began as a simple weather blog driven by one passion—to understand, analyse, and explain the atmosphere in a way that everyone could appreciate.

As we celebrate this remarkable 20-year 

milestone, we  are proud to unveil a new logo.

Our new logo is not a departure from our 

heritage—it is a natural evolution of it. 

Our refreshed identity represents growth, 

progress, and our commitment to staying relevant in an ever-

evolving digital world. 

Designed for today's platforms while inspired by our heritage, the 

new logo reflects who we are today and where 

we aspire to be tomorrow.

Our identity has evolved. Our commitment remains 

unchanged journey.

To every reader, follower, contributor, and weather enthusiast who has 

been part of this journey—thank you. Your trust, encouragement, and support have made these twenty years possible.

As we step into our 

third decade, we 

look ahead with renewed energy, 

fresh ideas, and the same enduring passion for 

understanding the weather.

This is how the country's rainfall in the past 24 hours looked like. Almost no rainfall in about 80 to 85 % of the total landmass

Reasons for Break Monsoon Scenario as on 13th JULY          

 👇

925 LEVEL

700 level

HUMIDITY MAP>>DRY AIR INTRUSION👇

 12th Night Posting

The current scenario shows a" Break Monsoon" conditions.

"Break Monsoon " means enhanced rainfall along the Axis which has moved much North of the normal position...and much reduced rainfall South of the Axis... (see images).

East U. P. got excessive rains. 

The overall scene

Monsoon Axis and break conditions expected to remain till 18th July.

Mumbai: As on 12th, rainfall at Colaba Station +61% and at Scruz Station +77%.

Lakes at 49% storage.. or till 15th December 2026.

Outlook for week 13th - 17th

Mumbai will get few passing showers, few short duration and heavy. No persistent Rainfall. No meaningful rains till 17th. Day will hot and night stuffy.

Pune/Sambhajinagar : No meaningful rains this week, in fact almost dry. Hotter days.

Crops can survive this week as soil is wet and storage just enough. (Marathwada crops today 👇) 

 11th JULY

 9th July

Mumbai: After pouring the full July quota in the first 9 days of the month, ( 1146 mms in 9 days. July monthly normal 919 mms)the rains have now eased off (as assured). 

Outlook for Weekend: Mumbai goes in for occasional passing showers with intermittent sunshine.

Pune: Also battered by 409 mms in July... Normal for July month is 190 mms, will now see a decrease to normal July drizzles. 

____________________________________________

Monsoon covers entire India.. Compiled by Vag Gokul

Large parts of country witnessed vigorous monsoon conditions in the past one week; Latest forecasts indicatue gradual setting in of a dry spell in the next 24-48 hrs., especially in the western and central parts of the country:

Meerut and Surat received heavy rains lately

After nearly a month long dry spell in June (when all India cumulative rainfall departure was about -40%), recently most parts of India witnessed active to vigorous monsoon conditions during the first week of July. 
This rainy spell brought in much needed rainfall over many parts of central, west and eastern Indian states(especially in the core monsoon zone). 

The intense rainfall spell resulted in a huge recovery of the country's overall monsoon rainfall has brought up the percentage departure from -40% to -14% as on date. 

Many places in north Konkan(Western Maharashtra) saw some of the most unprecedented rainfall events with Lonavala(a tourist town on the Western Ghats) receiving almost 1290 mm in 48 hours. 

 On the whole, this episode has improved dam water levels across western Maharashtra and to some extent has also probably recharged ground water levels. With the current rainy spell nearing its end, latest NWP model forecasts indicate a gradual setting in of a dry spell in the next 2-3 days. The actual duration and intensity of the upcoming dry spell needs continuous monitoring over the next few forecasts

 Pune area dam storage - excellent gains again in the past 24 hours:

Khadakwasla cluster: 48%

Pawana: 59%

Mulshi: 65%

Bhama Askhed: 65%

Ujjani: 7%

8th Morning 

Colaba IMD 62 mms...(+78% as on date)

Scruz IMD 125 mms...(+94% as on date)

Vagaries Club  52 mms

TOP 15 BMC RAINFALL AMOUNTS in millimeters

24 HOURS (FROM 10.30AM ON 07/07/26 TO 10.30AM ON 08/07/26)

MPS Maharashtra Nagar School, Mankhurd:184

Bandra Fire Station: 175

SWM Santacruz Workshop: 172

Shahaji Nagar Mun. School, Trombay159

G South Ward Office Parel: 157

Cooper Hospital: 154

Borivali Fire Station: 153

Chakala Mun. School, Andheri: 153

Ramabai Mun. School, Ghatkopar: 151

Andheri Fire Station: 148

Gazdarbandh Storm Water Pumping Stn: 146

Mankhurd Fire Staton: 140

Sewri Koliwada Mun. School, Sewri: 138

Maravli Mun. School, Chembur138

Building proposal office Vikroli West: 134

Ghats Rainfall:

Rainfall(mm) Pune from 0830 hrs IST of 7th July 2026 to 0830 hrs IST of 8th July 2026

MALIN   156.5

BHOR   100.0

CHINCHWAD    99.0

PASHAN 94.4

SHIVAJINAGAR   84.8

RAJGURUNAGAR      83.5

SHIRUR    72.5

DUDULGAON    60.0

DAPODI      55.0

HAVELI      35.5

BARAMATI    17.6

DAUND    17.5

  8th Night Post

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Mumbai 

Total Rainfall (1–7 July)

• Colaba: 880.4 mm..( Normal for full July =768 mms)
• Santacruz: 988.4 mm..(Normal for full July =919 mms 
• *The outlook: The incessant daily downpour of the last 3 days ( around 200 mms/day) will now reduce to Round 40 mms/day.
• This forecast is for 8th/9th/10th. Later on Mumbai will further reduced rainfall.
• 
  
• Pune:
• July 6th :108 mms, 7th: 97 mms
• Total till July 7th 309 mms.. ( July normal full month 190 mms) 
• JUNE + JULY (till 7th) = 373 mms.. i.e normal till date! 
• Outlook for 8th - 10th: Much reduced rainfall.. From 100 mms/day to 15 mms/day. 
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