11th JULY
Vagaries of the Weather ©
Vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia & co-authors concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Thursday, July 09, 2026
9th July
Mumbai: After pouring the full July quota in the first 9 days of the month, ( 1146 mms in 9 days. July monthly normal 919 mms)the rains have now eased off (as assured).
Outlook for Weekend: Mumbai goes in for occasional passing showers with intermittent sunshine.
Pune: Also battered by 409 mms in July... Normal for July month is 190 mms, will now see a decrease to normal July drizzles.
____________________________________________
Monsoon covers entire India.. Compiled by Vag Gokul
Large parts of country witnessed vigorous monsoon conditions in the past one week; Latest forecasts indicatue gradual setting in of a dry spell in the next 24-48 hrs., especially in the western and central parts of the country:
Meerut and Surat received heavy rains lately
After nearly a month long dry spell in June (when all India cumulative rainfall departure was about -40%), recently most parts of India witnessed active to vigorous monsoon conditions during the first week of July.
This rainy spell brought in much needed rainfall over many parts of central, west and eastern Indian states(especially in the core monsoon zone).
The intense rainfall spell resulted in a huge recovery of the country's overall monsoon rainfall has brought up the percentage departure from -40% to -14% as on date.
Many places in north Konkan(Western Maharashtra) saw some of the most unprecedented rainfall events with Lonavala(a tourist town on the Western Ghats) receiving almost 1290 mm in 48 hours.
On the whole, this episode has improved dam water levels across western Maharashtra and to some extent has also probably recharged ground water levels. With the current rainy spell nearing its end, latest NWP model forecasts indicate a gradual setting in of a dry spell in the next 2-3 days. The actual duration and intensity of the upcoming dry spell needs continuous monitoring over the next few forecasts
Wednesday, July 08, 2026
Pune area dam storage - excellent gains again in the past 24 hours:
Khadakwasla cluster: 48%
Pawana: 59%
Mulshi: 65%
Bhama Askhed: 65%
Ujjani: 7%
8th Morning
Colaba IMD 62 mms...(+78% as on date)
Scruz IMD 125 mms...(+94% as on date)
Vagaries Club 52 mms
TOP 15 BMC RAINFALL AMOUNTS in millimeters
24 HOURS (FROM 10.30AM ON 07/07/26 TO 10.30AM ON 08/07/26)
MPS Maharashtra Nagar School, Mankhurd:184
Bandra Fire Station: 175
SWM Santacruz Workshop: 172
Shahaji Nagar Mun. School, Trombay159
G South Ward Office Parel: 157
Cooper Hospital: 154
Borivali Fire Station: 153
Chakala Mun. School, Andheri: 153
Ramabai Mun. School, Ghatkopar: 151
Andheri Fire Station: 148
Gazdarbandh Storm Water Pumping Stn: 146
Mankhurd Fire Staton: 140
Sewri Koliwada Mun. School, Sewri: 138
Maravli Mun. School, Chembur138
Building proposal office Vikroli West: 134
Ghats Rainfall:
Rainfall(mm) Pune from 0830 hrs IST of 7th July 2026 to 0830 hrs IST of 8th July 2026
MALIN 156.5
BHOR 100.0
CHINCHWAD 99.0
PASHAN 94.4
SHIVAJINAGAR 84.8
RAJGURUNAGAR 83.5
SHIRUR 72.5
DUDULGAON 60.0
DAPODI 55.0
HAVELI 35.5
BARAMATI 17.6
DAUND 17.5
Tuesday, July 07, 2026
8th Night Post
Mumbai
Total Rainfall (1–7 July)
- Colaba: 880.4 mm..( Normal for full July =768 mms)
- Santacruz: 988.4 mm..(Normal for full July =919 mms
- *The outlook: The incessant daily downpour of the last 3 days ( around 200 mms/day) will now reduce to Round 40 mms/day.
- This forecast is for 8th/9th/10th. Later on Mumbai will further reduced rainfall.
- Pune:
- July 6th :108 mms, 7th: 97 mms
- Total till July 7th 309 mms.. ( July normal full month 190 mms)
- JUNE + JULY (till 7th) = 373 mms.. i.e normal till date!
- Outlook for 8th - 10th: Much reduced rainfall.. From 100 mms/day to 15 mms/day.
- Colaba: 880.4 mm..( Normal for full July =768 mms)
- Santacruz: 988.4 mm..(Normal for full July =919 mms
- *The outlook: The incessant daily downpour of the last 3 days ( around 200 mms/day) will now reduce to Round 40 mms/day.
- This forecast is for 8th/9th/10th. Later on Mumbai will further reduced rainfall.
- Pune:
- July 6th :108 mms, 7th: 97 mms
- Total till July 7th 309 mms.. ( July normal full month 190 mms)
- JUNE + JULY (till 7th) = 373 mms.. i.e normal till date!
- Outlook for 8th - 10th: Much reduced rainfall.. From 100 mms/day to 15 mms/day.
Mumbai Completes Its Average July Rainfall in Just 7 Days
Heavy rains make up for June's rainfall deficit
Mumbai: After an unusually dry June that had raised concerns among Mumbaikars, the city has witnessed exceptionally heavy rainfall during the first seven days of July. According to Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather, the rainfall received during these seven days has already exceeded the city's average rainfall for the entire month of July.
Both Santacruz and Colaba have crossed their respective monthly July rainfall averages within just one week.
Santacruz normally records an average of 919 mm of rainfall during the entire month of July. However, this year, it has already received 988.4 mm in the first seven days alone—69.4 mm above the monthly average.
Similarly, Colaba, whose average July rainfall is 768 mm, has recorded 880.4 mm during the same period—112.4 mm above its monthly average.
The heaviest rainfall occurred on 5 July, when both observatories recorded more than 200 mm of rain. These torrential spells have effectively erased the rainfall deficit created during the dry month of June, bringing much-needed relief to Mumbai.
Courtesy Dainik Lokmat👆
Heavy rains make up for June's rainfall deficit
Mumbai: After an unusually dry June that had raised concerns among Mumbaikars, the city has witnessed exceptionally heavy rainfall during the first seven days of July. According to Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather, the rainfall received during these seven days has already exceeded the city's average rainfall for the entire month of July.
Both Santacruz and Colaba have crossed their respective monthly July rainfall averages within just one week.
Santacruz normally records an average of 919 mm of rainfall during the entire month of July. However, this year, it has already received 988.4 mm in the first seven days alone—69.4 mm above the monthly average.
Similarly, Colaba, whose average July rainfall is 768 mm, has recorded 880.4 mm during the same period—112.4 mm above its monthly average.
The heaviest rainfall occurred on 5 July, when both observatories recorded more than 200 mm of rain. These torrential spells have effectively erased the rainfall deficit created during the dry month of June, bringing much-needed relief to Mumbai.
Courtesy Dainik Lokmat👆
Rainfall Recorded (1–7 July)
Date Colaba (mm) Santacruz (mm) 1 July 69.6 96.3 2 July 158.2 204.6 3 July 111.8 101.0 4 July 90.2 109.6 5 July 265.6 227.7 6 July 128.0 159.2 7 July 57.0 90.0
| Date | Colaba (mm) | Santacruz (mm) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 July | 69.6 | 96.3 |
| 2 July | 158.2 | 204.6 |
| 3 July | 111.8 | 101.0 |
| 4 July | 90.2 | 109.6 |
| 5 July | 265.6 | 227.7 |
| 6 July | 128.0 | 159.2 |
| 7 July | 57.0 | 90.0 |
Total Rainfall (1–7 July)
- Colaba: 880.4 mm..( Normal for full July =768 mms)
- Santacruz: 988.4 mm..(Normal for full July =919 mm)
- Colaba: 880.4 mm..( Normal for full July =768 mms)
- Santacruz: 988.4 mm..(Normal for full July =919 mm)
Rain for Season till 7th july
Monday, July 06, 2026
Sambhajinagar District (Marathwada ) is receiving good Rains ( luckily) and crops are doing well
*Pune Rainfall continues... 08:30 IST to 17:30 IST Rainfall(mm) 06-07-2026*
CHINCHWAD 132.0
GIRIVAN 119.5
NIMGIRI 72.0
BHOR 69.5
PASHAN 69.0
DUDULGAON 63.0
DAPODI 62.5
SHIRUR 58.0
SHIVAJINAGAR 53.2
RAJGURUNAGAR 50.5
MALIN 42.0
NDA 31.5
NARAYANGOAN 18.0
HADAPSAR 9.5
HAVELI 7.0
TALEGAON 5.5
BARAMATI 5.0
6th July 2026: Mahabaleshwar's daily today:513 mms.. Record for one day in July 594 mm in 2021
Lonavala highest daily Record: 670 mms
6th July ;Mumbai:
'Red alert' ;- Heavy rains expected to continue on Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th. With gusty winds. Expect cumulative 300 mms .
last 24 hrs: Colaba 128 mms, Scruz 159 mm.
As expected Colaba & Scruz received 350-400 mms last 3 days.
Lakes also doing well 101 mms in Modak Sagar, 143 mms in Tansa, 165 mms in Bhatsa, 213 mms in Vehar and 287 mms in Tulsi.
Overall storage improves to 17%. Good rains expected next 24 hrs
On 5th Mumbai got cyclonic speed winds at >70 kmph, uprooting many trees.
Pune; El Nino year delivering 108 mms in Pune on 5th July. Lohegaon A.P. 147 mms ! That is amazing 😀
Even this La Nina not able to do !
*Pune 03 UTC Rainfall(mm) 06-07-2026*
BHOR 172.0
PASHAN 113.0
DUDULGAON 110.0
SHIVAJINAGAR 108.4
NIMGIRI 99.0
NDA 98.5
RAJGURUNAGAR 95.0
DAPODI 93.0
MALIN 83.0
SHIRUR 74.5
HAVELI 54.0
DAUND 45.0
BARAMATI 15.6
11th JULY
-
Much Awaited Monsoon Analysis to Date from ..None Other than Our GSB..on "Stats and Analysis" Page..Just Recieved On Saturday ...
-
Short Narration: Monday 1st/Tuesday 2nd : The heaviest rains are in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka and No...









