Mumbai.. Month of May facts and observations:

(Please see on mobile in horizontal view) 

Hearing a lot of whispers, shouts and complains about Mumbai being " too hot", specially this year. 

Well, it's a lot about the " over enthusiastic" social sites by several forecasters. 

Vagaries simply clarifies with facts about Mumbai's May temperatures over the last 130 years ! ( Santacruz observations started in 1953).

May (Max) Days average over the years. (mobile on horizontal view) 

                         Colaba.      Scruz

1892-1901        32.6c.       No Observations 

1953-1962        33.6c        33.1c

1963 - 1968                       33.3c

2016-2025        34.4c.       34.1c

2026.                 34.4c        34.3c   (May 1-11th)

Conclusion:: Average of May this year (2026) is equal to average of May since 2016.

This year May as yet is definitely 0.8°c warmer than what we see 50/60 years ago.. 

And warmer by 1.8°c from 125 years back. 

All Details of recorded observations compiled by Vag. Shitij Jain (Surat)

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मराठवाड्यासाठी प्राथमिक मान्सून व कृषी अंदाज – २०२६... 10th May 

(शेतकरी व कृषी नियोजनासाठी मार्गदर्शक सूचना)

सध्या मराठवाड्यातील हवामानाची स्थिती पाहता, मे २०२६ च्या बहुतांश कालावधीत नेहमीप्रमाणे उन्हाळी वातावरण कायम राहण्याची शक्यता आहे. अनेक जिल्ह्यांमध्ये कमाल तापमान ४०°C ते ४२°C दरम्यान राहू शकते.

सध्या व्यापक पावसाची शक्यता कमी आहे. पुढील दोन आठवड्यांत जर पाऊस किंवा मेघगर्जनेसह वादळी पाऊस झाला, तरी तो स्थानिक, विखुरलेला आणि सौम्य स्वरूपाचा असण्याची शक्यता आहे. त्यामुळे शेतकऱ्यांनी केवळ या पूर्वमान्सून पावसावर अवलंबून राहून मोठ्या प्रमाणावर शेतीची तयारी करू नये.

पूर्वमान्सून व मान्सून अंदाज

जूनच्या पहिल्या आठवड्यापासून पूर्वमान्सून मेघगर्जना व वादळी पावसाची तीव्रता हळूहळू वाढण्याची शक्यता आहे. सध्याच्या हवामान विश्लेषणानुसार आणि उपलब्ध संकेतांनुसार, दक्षिण-पश्चिम मान्सून मराठवाड्यात साधारण १५ जूनच्या आसपास दाखल होण्याची शक्यता आहे.

यामुळे खरीप हंगामासाठी सुमारे ३.५ महिन्यांचा प्रभावी पिकांचा कालावधी उपलब्ध राहू शकतो.

हंगामी पावसाचा अंदाज

दीर्घकालीन हवामान अंदाज आणि सध्याच्या वातावरणीय स्थितीनुसार, २०२६ चा मान्सून मराठवाड्यात सामान्य ते किंचित कमी राहण्याची शक्यता आहे.

जून आणि जुलै महिन्यातील पाऊस सामान्य ते किंचित कमी राहू शकतो. काही भागांत पावसाचे वितरण असमान राहण्याची शक्यता आहे.

ऑगस्ट आणि सप्टेंबर महिन्यांत सरासरीपेक्षा कमी पावसाची शक्यता तुलनेने अधिक आहे.

मराठवाड्याचा सरासरी हंगामी पाऊस साधारण 825 मिमी आहे.

सध्याच्या प्राथमिक अंदाजानुसार, यंदा पाऊस साधारण 10% कमी, म्हणजेच 745 ते 770 मिमी दरम्यान राहू शकतो.

शेतकऱ्यांसाठी सूचना

*केवळ एखाद्या स्थानिक पूर्वमान्सून सरींवर आधारित फार लवकर पेरणी करण्याचे टाळावे.

*पाणी साठवण व मातीतील ओलावा टिकवून ठेवण्यासाठी आवश्यक उपाययोजना कराव्यात.

*कमी ते मध्यम पावसाच्या शक्यतेचा विचार करून पिकांची निवड करावी.

*ज्या ठिकाणी सिंचनाची सुविधा आहे, तेथे पाण्याचा काटकसरीने व नियोजनपूर्वक वापर करावा.

मान्सून आगमनाची प्रगती:

जूनमधील पावसाचे वितरण,आणि सुधारित हंगामी पावसाचा अंदाज

यासंदर्भातील अधिक सविस्तर माहिती मे २०२६ च्या अखेरीस दिली जाईल.

>मे महिन्याच्या शेवटच्या १० दिवसांत हवामानात कोणताही महत्त्वाचा बदल झाल्यास, त्याची माहिती वेळोवेळी अद्ययावत करण्यात येईल

Preliminary Monsoon & Agricultural Outlook for Marathwada – 2026

(Guidance Note for Farmers & Agricultural Planning)

The current weather pattern across Marathwada indicates continuation of typical summer conditions during most of May 2026. Day temperatures are expected to remain in the range of 40°C to 42°C across several districts.

At present, the possibility of widespread rainfall remains low. Any rain or thunderstorm activity during the next two weeks is likely to be localized, scattered, and generally non-severe in nature. 

Hence, farmers are advised not to depend on pre-monsoon showers for major agricultural preparations at this stage.

Pre-Monsoon & Monsoon Outlook

Pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity is 

expected to gradually increase during the 

first week of June. Based on current 

analysis and prevailing indicators, the 

South-West Monsoon is expected to reach 

Marathwada around mid-June, approximately near 15th June.

This gives an estimated effective crop 

season window of around 3.5 months for 

the summer monsoon agricultural cycle.

Seasonal Rainfall Estimate

Long-range weather models and present climatic indicators suggest that the 2026 monsoon rainfall over Marathwada may remain near normal to slightly below normal.

Rainfall during June and July is expected to remain normal to slightly lower than normal, with uneven distribution possible at times.

There is a comparatively higher probability of below-normal rainfall during August and September.

The seasonal normal rainfall for Marathwada is approximately 825 mm.

Current preliminary estimates indicate rainfall may remain around 10% below normal, giving a likely seasonal total of approximately 725–770 mm.

Advisory for Farmers

*Farmers are advised to plan sowing schedules cautiously and avoid very early sowing based solely on isolated pre-monsoon showers.

*Water conservation and soil moisture retention measures should be prioritized.

*Crop selection may preferably consider moderate rainfall scenarios and possible late-season rainfall reduction.

*Irrigation resources, where available, should be managed carefully considering the present outlook.

A more detailed update regarding:

Monsoon onset progress,

June rainfall distribution,

and revised seasonal rainfall estimates will be issued by the end of May 2026.

If there are any significant changes in the weather pattern during the last 10 days of May, timely updates will be communicated accordingly.

Vagaries Weather Outlook for Weekend - 9th/10th May :

 9th May Night Post

👇 No Warnings... All Temperatures in +_ 1° of normal range. 

Mumbai : Hot and humid.. Making Real Feel of 39°.. 

Day: 35° [1° more than normal ] ... Night : 28°  [2° More than normal] 

Pune: Sunny, some clouds by evening. Real feel 41°

Day : 39°... Night 24°  [Both 1°above normal] 

Jalgaon : Hot temperature,  

Day: 42° [normal range.] ...Night: 24° [2° below the normal ] 

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Some Selected News Reports from today ( 8th)👇

[Just saying.. 😃😆] 

 Where is the anticipated North India " Super Heat"..Missing? No India Baking at 55° ?

Region wise break up of North Day temperatures on 7th:

New Delhi: Sjung: 33.6° ( -5.7°)

Palam: 32.8° (-7.8°)

Note on El Nino: 6th May

A) Detailed Meteorological Note Below this article 

B) Summary Image 👉

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C) Simple Note on El Niño : 👇

VAGARIES WEATHER UPDATE

🌊 El Niño – Simple Understanding (May 2026)

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👉 Current Status

🟢 ENSO is NEUTRAL
🌡️ Pacific warming slightly, but NO El Niño yet

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👉 What is El Niño?

🌊 Warming of Pacific Ocean watersh
🌍 Impacts global weather patterns

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👉 When is El Niño Declared?

✔️ Temperature anomaly ≥ +0.5°C
✔️ Must persist for 5 consecutive 3-month periods

🚫 Short-term warming does NOT mean El Niño

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👉 Latest Observations

🔵 Feb–Apr: –0.5°C → Weak La Niña influence
🔵 April Monthly anomaly: –0.24°C

➡️ Still below El Niño threshold

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👉 What Next?

🟡 Possible development mid–late 2026
🟡 Likely to begin as a weak event

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🔴 VAGARIES INSIGHT

👉 No panic, no hype
👉 El Niño is NOT declared yet
👉 It is a slow evolving process

(Forecast uncertainty is often larger at this time of year, due to what is called the "spring predictability barrier". Changes in the climate system in the tropical Pacific during March to May are naturally less predictable than at other times of year. The ensemble forecasts capture some of this additional uncertainty, but may still struggle to accurately forecast through this period. 

Models indicate that a moderate El Niño is likely, and many allow for the possibility of a strong event, but it is too early to assign high confidence to those outcomes. We currently have no compelling reason to discount the model guidance, but we should remember that the forecasts are not guaranteed to be reliable.) 

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(A) Detailed Meteorological Note:

A  Practical Understanding of the El Nino;..to clear misconceptions about the Event.

Various International agencies are monitoring the ENSO conditions. El Nino declaration is 

based on the SST anomaly over the regions known as Nino regions and is located over the 

equatorial Pacific ocean as shown in the map.
(source: BOM, Australia)

 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May/July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Understanding the El-Nino:

 NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

• As per the (NOAA/CPC/NCEP)  Criteria and Definition, To be officially classified as a full-fledged El Niño event, the phenomenon must meet specific criteria regarding sea surface temperatures and duration.
• i.e., Duration: 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
• The Chart (Below) shows the Feb/Mar/Apr average as -0.5..indicating La nina conditions at least April end.
• The  April Monthly anomaly RONI as -0.24,
• So, the Pre El Nino period shows the El Nino can emerge by September that too initially a weak Event.👇
• 
  
  .{Criteria:

El Niño: Characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.  By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons *.

• Duration: This anomaly must persist for at 
• least 5 consecutive, overlapping 3-month periods.(Refer Chart)}
• 
  
• Key  Criteria for El Niño:Region: Niño 3.4 (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W).Measurement: 3-month running mean of higher anomaly. 
• Weak: +0.5  to +0.9 anomaly.
• Moderate: +1.0 to +1.4 anomaly.
• Strong: +1.5 to +1.9 anomaly.
• Very Strong: +2.0 anomaly.]
• 
  
• The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) often looks for consistent atmospheric features (such as reduced trade winds) to accompany the oceanic warming.
• 
  

 Vagaries putting up a Explanatory Note on the actual Position and Possibility of an El Nino:

Article will be published here by 10.30 pm IST today.