Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Meteorological Status of El Niño ( Below)

 Vagaries was not absolutely off the mark in the forecast for 17th to 19th for South Maharashtra... Pune, *Rainfall(mm) Pune from 0830 hrs IST of 19th October 2026 to 0830 hrs IST of 20th October 2026*

HADAPSAR 14.0, MAGARPATTA 14.0, CHINCHWAD 3.0, NARAYANGOAN 1.5, HAVELI 1.0, NDA 0.5

& Mahabaleshwar did get moderate rainfall on 18th /19th.

2 dayscAccumulated rainfall map




  • ----—---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • Meteorological Status of El Nino

  • The latest weekly relative Niño3.4 index value for the week ending 11 October 2026 is +2.81 °C, well above the El Niño threshold (+0.80 °C). 
  • In the bureau weekly sea surface temperature (SST) data, (GAMSSA, starting in 2008) this is the highest value on record, exceeding +2.78 °C for the week ending 22 November 2015
  • Outlook & Forecast
    • Peak Intensity: Models indicate the event will peak around November–December 2026, with a high probability of becoming a historic, ultra-strong event exceeding pre-1950 levels.
    • Duration: El Niño conditions have a 100% probability of persisting through the remainder of 2026 and boreal spring (MAM) 2027.
    • Transition: A gradual weakening is expected by mid-2027, with ENSO-neutral conditions favored by summer (JJA 2027).





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Sunday, October 18, 2026

NEM VERY ACTIVE IN T. N.

 18th October Post

NEM VERY ACTIVE IN T. N. 





TEN HOTTEST IN INDIA TODAY 



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Saturday, October 17, 2026

17th October 






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Friday, October 16, 2026

IMD-based 1–15 October average maximum for Mumbai and Pune

IMD-based 1–15 October average maximum 

For Mumbai Santacruz 



For Pune

Year    Average maximum

1991.   32.81°C

1992.  30.41°C

1993.   31.12°C

1994.   32.34°C

1995.     31.29°C

1996.     29.86°C

1997*.    32.79°C

1998.   30.39°C

1999.   29.87°C

2000.   32.1°C 

2001.   30.21°C

2002.   34.78°C

2003.   32.97°C

2004.   30.88°C

2005.    30.87°C

2006.    31.04°C

2007.    32.50°C

2008.    31.86°C

2009.    30.51°C

2010.    32.09°C

2011.    31.94°C

2012.     31.43°C

2013.     30.43°C

2014.     33.34°C.    

2015.     32.35°C

2016.     28.78°C.  

2017.     30.68°C

2018.     32.41°C

2019.    30.22°C

2020.    30.26°C

2021.    31.23°C

2022.    28.93°C

2023     33.09°C

2024.    32.58°C

2025.    31.40°C

2026.    34.97°C

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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

14th October Post

1. Low Pressure forming in shear zone Trough in T. N. Can bring in the NEM into Tamil Nadu on the 17th.... *See NEM note below*

2. Low pressure moves NW through T. N. into Karnataka towards South Maharashtra. 

3. Heavy thundershowers in Bengaluru from 16th - 23rd.

4. Unseasonal rains expected in South Maharashtra and along Ghats on 18th - 21st.. Mahabaleshwar : Thundershower expected on 17th/18th.

5. Pune :Thundershowers expected in Pune on 19th/20/21..Heavy on 21st... Wet Dussehra.

6.  Mumbai Rain expected in Mumbai from 18th - 20th...Wet Dussehra.

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*NEM Arrival Criteria :

On many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.

So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

-The main has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.

In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

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Weather Vagaries Goa's post...By Vag. Atul Naik

 

s͏



Weather Vagaries Goa's post...By Vag. Atul Naik 
SWM 2026 - A Record Breaking Low Rainfall Year for Goa!

** CHARTS 1, 2 & 3 **
1. Goa received nearly 32% deficient rainfall from June 1 to September 30 this year, making it the lowest Monsoon rainfall year since 1980 as per IMD. All 4 months received deficient rainfall.
2. As against Normal rainfall of 3007.8 mm, Goa received only 2055.4 mm (80.92 inches).
3. During the 4 months, 32 days were above normal/ normal rainfall days. 65 days were below normal days. And 25 days were completely dry or less than 1 mm. One noteworthy mention is that it rained daily from July 15 to Septemebr 9!
** CHARTS 4, 5 & 6 **
4. South Goa received more rains than North Goa. Of course interior areas at the base of the Ghats received more rainfall than the coastal areas.
5. The top 3, Valpoi, Dharbandora and Sanguem were just able to score a century of rainfall in inches. Last year these three had received more than 150 inches. At the bottom Panaji, which had received more than 100 inches last year, received just 55 inches of rainfall this year.
Every Monsoon Season is different, but this year was remarkable in that, though there were just 25 dry days, it turned out to be the driest Monsoon in a long long time, with departure of around -32% from Normal. This year's El Nino phenomenon is said to be the strongest in recent times. Perhaps that could have been a reason for the low rainfall.
If that is so, we will have to watch out how Monsoons behave next year, because El Nino is expected to peak in the months ahead!









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