As on 19th June

 20th June

*Asian Monsoon circulation weakens and monsoon rainfall halt continues; monsoon progression hiatus crosses 11 days over many parts of peninsular India* :

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Summary

 Monsoon rainfall over India did not make any further progression over the last several days. The monsoon Northern Limit) remains stationary and the hiatus in monsoon progression has now crossed more than 11 days over several parts of peninsular India and almost close to a week over the eastern parts of India. 

All India cumulative monsoon rainfall departure as on 19th June 2026 since the 1st of June stands at an alarming -41% and in particular over central India (core monsoon zone) where agricultural activities rely more on monsoon rainfall directly, stands at -64%.

Early drought like conditions can set in over western parts of Maharashtra, where the rainfall departure value in several districts are more than 90% on the negative side. 

To end on a slight positive note, models have started indicating signs of monsoon revival (though weak) by the last week of June. This developing news and situation needs continuous monitoring. 

(Contributed by Vag. Gokul) 

Major cities like Mumbai and Pune in the state have started feeling water crisis with available water depleting faster as days progress. 

Mumbai Lakes at 9.33% of storage levels. Enough for 40 days. 

Pune Dams at approximately 20%.

Maharashtra Dams at approximately 24%.

Mumbai Colaba is - 96%, with 2 mm of rain. Scruz - 98% in deficit with 13 mms... Pune is - 100% with 0 mm as yet....Mahabaleshwar is  - 93% with 33 mms

Driest June ever: Colaba in 2014 with 55 mm... Scruz in 1995 with 82 mms... Pune in 1947 with 1.3 mm. 

Weather Note for Maharashtra

 19th June

Wait for Monsoon continues..

Mumbai, passing 2-3 showers/day from 21-24June. Further increase in rain from 25 June but will not be very heavy.

June rainfall till 19th:Colaba is 4mms, -98%, and Scruz is 12 mms, -95%

Mumbai Water storage is at 

  9.67% (2026) .

10.19% (2025) . 

   5.35%(2024)

Weak current Monsoon may arrive by 24th.. Expect at the most 100 mms end June.. Meaning -80%. 

Less current in Lakes till June end. 

Pune /Nashik: Wait for rain to continue with rain unlikely at least till 23 June. From 24 June onwards Pune too chance of rain are increasing.

Pune Rainfall this June 0 mms (-100%)

Pune Nashik Satara catchments: No major rain till 25 June at least. However, increase in rain post 25 June is on cards. Note: It may not be extremely heavy.

Maharashtra interiors including Marathwada: No significant rain till 24 June at least.

Vagaries' Note:

MJO may remain in suppressed form in next 7 days, however it may not cause a positive or negative impact over monsoon rain.

700 hPa likely to remain disorganized at north Konkan latitude in next 5 days, which is not supporting monsoon rain.

Gradual improvement in moisture supply over Konkan after 21 June

 W.Ds bring cooler weather in North India while Peninsula awaiting Monsoon..see Current Weather Page

16th June 2026

Why Has the Monsoon Gone Quiet?

Current Atmospheric & Oceanic Factors Behind the Lull

🔴 1. Atmosphere Responding to Developing El Niño

Nino 3.4 SST anomalies continue to warm.

SOI remains strongly negative.

Indicates atmospheric circulation is already aligning with El Niño conditions.

🔵 2. Suppressed MJO Activity

Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak and away from the Indian Ocean.

Reduced tropical convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Possible influence from developing strong El Niño conditions.

🟠 3. Dry Air Intrusion

Strong Western Disturbances recently moved across North India.

Dry continental air from North/Northwest India has spread southward.

Limiting cloud growth and monsoon convection.

🟢 4. Weak Somali Jet & Lack of Bay Systems

Somali Jet remains poorly developed over the Arabian Sea.

No significant Low Pressure Areas or Monsoon Depressions forming in the Bay.

No Pacific typhoon remnants entering the Bay to trigger monsoon systems.

🟣 5. Neutral IOD

Indian Ocean Dipole remains near neutral.

Currently providing neither support nor suppression to the monsoon.

📌 Overall Assessment

⚠️ The combination of: • Developing El Niño

• Suppressed MJO

• Dry air intrusion

• Weak Somali Jet

• Absence of Bay depressions

has resulted in an unusually subdued monsoon phase, with weather resembling late summer/pre-monsoon conditions across many parts of India.

Vagaries Outlook:

The next significant increase in rainfall will likely require either: 

✅ Revival of MJO activity over the Indian Ocean

✅ Strengthening of the Somali Jet

✅ Formation of a Bay Low Pressure Area/Monsoon Depression

 Monsoon season 1st to 15th June

Mumbai expected to get few pre monsoon showers from 16th..and probably Monsoon advance by 24th June. 

Pune Sizzles: Hottest And Driest First Half of June Since at Least 2014 at Shivajinagar

 The avg. maximum temperature at pune shivajinagar in june 2026 1st half is 36.6c. 

This is the hottest 1st half of june at least since 2014.

No rain occured in Pune Shivajinagar in 1st half of June. For the 1st time at least since 2014, that June 1st half of Pune went completely dry. Yearwise 1st half June total (mm) as follows

2014: 10.1

2015: 80.4

2016: 35.2

2017: 88.1

2018: 61.9

2019: 41.5

2020: 112

2021: 57.4

2022: 28

2023: 20.4

2024: 231.0

2025: 132.9

2026: 0