29th April Post

Oh No...The so called "Heat wave" is letting some forecasters go wrong

After our caution in Vagaries..overnight temperatures have stared dripping and into the "below Normal" zone especially in the "hotbed" Regions of North India ! ! 

See the North India cooling Nights below 👇

28th Post

 Dispelling "fake news" of impending 1) fatal heat waves to hit India, 

2) A"super El Nino"..

 A once in 150 years El Niñocoming this summer, 

3) Record temperature touching 55°c 

4) India is going to have an unlivable summer 

5) "This is only April, the hottest months are not yet here"... And more of these alarming and panic news circulating. 

>Like we said in the blog on 27th article, there is nothing so vastly unusual... 

> Some facts and actual early high temperatures in the past... Showing earliest 40°c in the past... And much earlier than this year.. (Ref : Vagaries Extreme Blog.) 

1953 . 28 -Feb Akola 40.0°c , Ahmedabad h28 Feb 40.6 °c, Baroda 28th Feb 40.6°

1963 -  23-Feb Bhubaneshwar 42.7c    

1973     28-Feb Ahmadabad, Baroda, Bharuch, Rajkot, Surat.Baroda 41.7c, Bharuch 42.8c

1974.     27th Feb Jalgaon 40°

1976      20- Feb Dohad 42.0c

1981      3-Mar Mumbai Scruz 40.0

• February: In exceptionally warm years, parts
•  of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana can hit 40°C by 
•  last week of February. For instance, in 2023,
•  several locations in Maharashtra and Gujarat recorded temperatures
•  close to or at 40°C as early as February 12-16.
• 
  
• Pune recorded it's earliest 40°on 20th March 2006.
• 
  
• New Delhi Palam on 23rd March 2004.
• In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the
• 
  
• same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April
• 2010, Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c,
• Simla to 28.2c
•  on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 
• On 19th April 2017, first ever 50 c
• temperature in April in
•  Asia has been recorded at Larkana (Sindh).
• 
  
• And so on and on... So what's different or unusual in heating this year in 2026 ??
• 
  
• > Super El Niño scare: Current State: ENSO Neutral

• Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly

  Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)

  Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026

• So let us actually wait and watch. 

• 
  

• Conclusion : 1) Hyper blown up

•  contravertial situations 

• 2) Things and

•  Temperatures not going to extreme

•  unbelievably high 

• 3) We need to be alert

•  and cautious, not generating panic. 

27th Night Post 

In foreign and Indian social media and the press there is a lot of discussion about rising temperature in India.

It is noteworthy  to understand that through the  Indian summer, 40°c or even 44°c is a natural  seasonal phase, not an anomaly or an unexpected event.

In this context, experiencing 40–45°C temperatures during April to June across India is not unusual, but rather a direct outcome of seasonal solar movements—something that has always been occurring, and known as "the typical lndian Summer" 

Therefore, high temperatures during this period are a " occurrence " not an exception.

In fact, Intense heating over the Sub Continent landmass leads to the formation of The Seasonal low- which is essential for the onset and advancement of the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Summer months on the Sub Continent, April, May, and early June (until the onset of the monsoon) represent the hottest period of the year across large parts of India, especially over interior Maharashtra,Karnataka Telengana and much of Central, Northern, and Eastern regions. 

This is not a recent phenomenon—it has been consistently observed for decades, supported by long-term meteorological records.

This year is no exception...in fact the heating starts and fake news of 55°c possible starts...

While this is how week by week the summer has been...see the "below normal" in the anomaly map 👇

Mostly below normal👆

Large Below Normal Areas👇

still showing below normal areas👆

Heating started after 15th April 👇

---------------—------------------——------------------------------------—-----------------------------

Mumbai is currently at 34°c, considered normal. And the real feel factor, (with high humidity at 75%,) is around 38°c. 

So, nothing alarming for Mumbai! 

Yes, in the first half of April Mumbai showed higher day temperature of 37°c. But March does show high temperatures, even touching 40°c at times. 

For cities like Pune and Nashik, the long-term  average maximum temperature during peak For cities like Pune and Nashik, the long-term  average maximum temperature during peak summer is around 38°/39°C. 

Therefore, temperatures reaching 40°C or slightly higher fall well within the expected natural variability of the regional climate and should not be immediately considered abnormal.

Nagpur, the normal average maximum temperature in May is around 43°C. Hence, temperatures occasionally rising to 45–46°C are also within the natural range of variability for that region.

New Delhi and Rajasthan cities see >44° normally, so same reasoning.

April May & June (till monsoon sets)  the peak summer months.

 26th April Post

Indian Sub Continent Heats Up

--------------------------------😓------------------😓-------

Outlook from 27th - 30th April

Mumbai: 

Hot but Humid and sweaty temperature at 34°and nights warm at 26°... Real feel temperature 39° and AQI = 150. 😓

Pune: Hot, very hot with Thunder Showers on 27th/28th. Temperature at 40° with nights at 21°

Mahabaleshwar : Hot for a hill station at 32-22° 😓

Goa:Hot humid at 34°

Sambhajinagar : Very hot and sunny.. Temperature at 42°and night at 27°. 

Akola : Even hotter at 46°

Bharuch : Hot at 40°..but better on 29th/30th at 37°.

New Delhi: A few stray Dust Storm but hot in the day at 42° and low at 27°

Monsoon Watch - 2

 🌧️ Vagaries Monsoon Watch – 2

 23rd April

1. Mascarene Highs

Forming speed is slow and inadequate at present.

The pressure gradient is yet to strengthen sufficiently to support robust cross-equatorial flow.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

2. Seasonal Low & Heat

The seasonal low (~1000 mb) is developing on expected lines for now.

Interior regions have already touched 45°C (17th April), indicating progressive heating.

Indicator: 🟢 Normal

3. Equatorial Winds

With the Mascarene High still weak, the SE winds remain south of the equator and feeble.

Cross-equatorial push is yet to establish, which is crucial for monsoon onset dynamics.

Indcator:  -ve

4. Bay Branch

No organized or strong convective systems seen in the Bay yet.

The Bay branch currently lacks momentum and structure.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

5. ENSO Status (April 2026)

Current State: ENSO Neutral

Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly

Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)

Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026

This evolution is not supportive for a strong early monsoon.

Indicator: 🔴 Strong El Niño tendency

🔎 Vagaries Summary

South West Monsoon likely delayed, especially in the Bay branch.

West Coast arrival currently estimated around 1st week of June.

Overall tilt: Slightly negative as of now.

⚠️ These assessments are based on current parameters and may evolve in the next 10 days.

19th April Weather Statistics:

Hottest Place in the World:

Akola & Wardha ( Vidarbha):  45°.

10 Hottest of 🇮🇳 India:

City Max & Min temperatures:

Mumbai AP: 34.8°c - 24.1°c

Pune: 40.7°c - 22.4°c

New Delhi Sjung: 40.1°c - 21.7°c

Kolkata AP: 35.8°c - 28.2°c

Chennai ( Meena): 37.9°c - 26.4°c

Ahmedabad: 40.0°c -26.9°c

Highest Minimum Temperature: Raipur :29.9°C

18th April Post 

Pre Monsoon Showers:

Mumbai will be Partly cloudy on Sunday 19th and Monday 20th..Light rain expected on 21st.

Thunderstorms/hailstorm is expected across Maharashtra Goa and N.I. Karnataka from 20 April.

Ghat sections extending into the Madhya Maharashtra region. 🌩️

Pune/ Nasik/Satara and Mahabaleshwar will get evening Thunder showers from 20th Monday.

Hit-or-miss Thunderstorm activity near the interior Konkan ghat base will depend and  — some areas in Konkan and Goa may benefit if cells move westward.

Rainfall likely to spread further into Marathwada an Vidarbha next week from 22nd.

A wind convergence is the cause of April showers.

Light showers on 22nd/23rd expected in South Gujarat Coast.