Hype created and News Circulation by Foreign Agencies about Alleged "Indian Heat Waves"

The actual facts: Actual Fact shows Summer anomaly variations around+_ Degree only.👇

In this article the foreign scientist says pre-monsoon rain over large areas are below normal

 In reality 1-25 May: All india rain 5% above normal

Centrsl india: 23.7% above normal

South india: 19.4% above normal

North india: only 1.4% below normal

 Also avg temps across ~60% of country so far this May is below normal

The highest average may temp for India was in 1921 31.92c and northwest india avg max temp was 39.86c. This May 2026 is not even close to it to say it historic heat.

Forget 1921, even this May will not break 2024 record which is the hottest may in satellite record (since 1980) with avg. Maximum temperature in May 2024 was 31.08c and northwest india it was 38.36c

Thus, there is :NO MASSIVE HISTORICAL EVENT" with respect to summers/heating in this May

The above times article is completely wrong , nonscientific and the editor journalist should be held accountable for publising totally false stuffs.

Comment by Vagarian Dr.Vineet Kumar.

 24th May..

Mumbai 

Hot Night : The 4th hottest (May Month) night Temperature ever recorded at 29.9°c on 24th morning.

Compared with the Highest ever first three for the month of May. 👇

Compared with the Hottest ever first three nights for May. 

But, as yet this year, Mumbai Temperatures have been "OK.. near normal" 👇

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Outlook Upto 31st May:

Mumbai  

*Hot, humid, sweaty conditions as humidity increases to 85% and possibly a few light pre Monsoon showers ( more stuffy conditions).

*Temperatures in day at 34° ( real feel at 40°) - night Temperatures low at 28/29°. 

[Highest minimum record could jump to 3rd place] 

*Heavier pre Monsoon thundershowers will occur from 3rd June. Regular Monsoon expected by 11th/12th June. 

--------------------------------------------------------------

Pune: 

Clouds gathering by late afternoon, and possible 50% chance of pre Monsoon thundershowers. 

Temperatures in the day 38° and 23/25°. 

Monsoon by 11th/12th June. 

Sambhajinagar will be hot at 42° and dry.

Vidharbh will be sizzling between 44 - 47° as, usual. Convective Thunderstorm expected around May end. 

 SEASONAL LOW.

ALSO FAR WEST TROUGH..A LITTLE OUT OF PLACE

🌩️ Pune Thunderstorm Update –  🌧️

Strong post-noon thunderstorm activity lashed several parts of Pune district on 22nd May, bringing intense localised rainfall and gusty conditions.

📍 Pune Rainfall (mm) till 8.30 IST – 23 -05-2026

Nigdi 97 

CHINCHWAD 67

Kondwa 58

ZP School Pisoli 56

DUDULGAON 38.5

SHIRUR 35.5

Aundh 35

KURVANDE 32.5

NDA 30.0

AMBEGAON 28.0

RAJGURUNAGAR 27.0

NIMGIRI 23.0

Bhosale Nagar 22

NARAYANGOAN 21.5

BALLALWADI 21.5

PASHAN_AWS 18.5

SHIVAJINAGAR 13.3

KOREGAON PARK 10.0

LAVALE 8.5

HAVELI 1.5

GIRIVAN 0.5

in mms

⚡ Heavy convective clouds developed rapidly during the afternoon due to increasing moisture incursion and intense daytime heating over interior Maharashtra.

🌦️ More localised thunderstorms are possible over Pune district and nearby Ghat regions during the next 2–3 days.

🌐 Details & Updates: www.vagaries.in

#P#Punerains

21st May..Post 

Weather Watch Summary 22nd May - 30th May.

1. There seems a probability of a Low forming in Central Arabian sea on 23rd.

2. This may pull off the moisture from the West Coast.

3. Rainfall in patches likely on West Coast and Thundershowers in Ghats till May end.

4. That is till the AS 1 moves away.

5. South West Monsoon expected in Kerala around previous expected date 30th May - 1st June. 

6. Mumbai can get pre- monsoon thundershowers after 1st/2nd June. 

7. If progress is maintained, Monsoon can arrive in Mumbai around 11th June.

8. Remainder of May: Mumbai:

 Normal humid weather around 34°/35°.

A few patchy localised ( Hit and Miss type) showers on the odd day. Evenings.

9. Pune: Partly Cloudy by afternoon with localised thundershower. Around 40°

10. Vidarbha will be the normal hotbed at 44°- 47°.

30th May Temperatures in India..How they Stand

Day Temperatures 

Night Temperatures

20th May

Possible chance of Derailing the El Niño effect this summer: 

A Positive I.O.D. can partially offset weak El Niño effects and sometimes supports a near-normal Indian Monsoon.

A Positive I.O.D. occurs when the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than normal, while the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia turns cooler than normal.

This temperature contrast strengthens winds towards Africa and often helps enhance the Indian Monsoon by increasing moisture flow towards India.

Typical Effects:

Better monsoon support for India 🌧️

Increased rainfall over East Africa

Reduced rainfall near Indonesia/Australia

Vagaries Insight:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase, hovering around -0.04.

Forecasts project a shift to a positive IOD phase by late June or July 2026, with the index potentially exceeding the +0.5 threshold as a developing El Niño influences the broader climate system.

This may counter the developing El Nino. Indian Ocean may start working a bit in India’s favour even as the Pacific turns hostile.

Still Too early to make a call