Weather Note for Maharashtra

 19th June

Wait for Monsoon continues..

Mumbai, passing 2-3 showers/day from 21-24June. Further increase in rain from 25 June but will not be very heavy.

June rainfall till 19th:Colaba is 4mms, -98%, and Scruz is 12 mms, -95%

Mumbai Water storage is at 

  9.67% (2026) .

10.19% (2025) . 

   5.35%(2024)

Weak current Monsoon may arrive by 24th.. Expect at the most 100 mms end June.. Meaning -80%. 

Less current in Lakes till June end. 

Pune /Nashik: Wait for rain to continue with rain unlikely at least till 23 June. From 24 June onwards Pune too chance of rain are increasing.

Pune Rainfall this June 0 mms (-100%)

Pune Nashik Satara catchments: No major rain till 25 June at least. However, increase in rain post 25 June is on cards. Note: It may not be extremely heavy.

Maharashtra interiors including Marathwada: No significant rain till 24 June at least.

Vagaries' Note:

MJO may remain in suppressed form in next 7 days, however it may not cause a positive or negative impact over monsoon rain.

700 hPa likely to remain disorganized at north Konkan latitude in next 5 days, which is not supporting monsoon rain.

Gradual improvement in moisture supply over Konkan after 21 June

 W.Ds bring cooler weather in North India while Peninsula awaiting Monsoon..see Current Weather Page

16th June 2026

Why Has the Monsoon Gone Quiet?

Current Atmospheric & Oceanic Factors Behind the Lull

🔴 1. Atmosphere Responding to Developing El Niño

Nino 3.4 SST anomalies continue to warm.

SOI remains strongly negative.

Indicates atmospheric circulation is already aligning with El Niño conditions.

🔵 2. Suppressed MJO Activity

Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak and away from the Indian Ocean.

Reduced tropical convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Possible influence from developing strong El Niño conditions.

🟠 3. Dry Air Intrusion

Strong Western Disturbances recently moved across North India.

Dry continental air from North/Northwest India has spread southward.

Limiting cloud growth and monsoon convection.

🟢 4. Weak Somali Jet & Lack of Bay Systems

Somali Jet remains poorly developed over the Arabian Sea.

No significant Low Pressure Areas or Monsoon Depressions forming in the Bay.

No Pacific typhoon remnants entering the Bay to trigger monsoon systems.

🟣 5. Neutral IOD

Indian Ocean Dipole remains near neutral.

Currently providing neither support nor suppression to the monsoon.

📌 Overall Assessment

⚠️ The combination of: • Developing El Niño

• Suppressed MJO

• Dry air intrusion

• Weak Somali Jet

• Absence of Bay depressions

has resulted in an unusually subdued monsoon phase, with weather resembling late summer/pre-monsoon conditions across many parts of India.

Vagaries Outlook:

The next significant increase in rainfall will likely require either: 

✅ Revival of MJO activity over the Indian Ocean

✅ Strengthening of the Somali Jet

✅ Formation of a Bay Low Pressure Area/Monsoon Depression

 Monsoon season 1st to 15th June

Mumbai expected to get few pre monsoon showers from 16th..and probably Monsoon advance by 24th June. 

Pune Sizzles: Hottest And Driest First Half of June Since at Least 2014 at Shivajinagar

 The avg. maximum temperature at pune shivajinagar in june 2026 1st half is 36.6c. 

This is the hottest 1st half of june at least since 2014.

No rain occured in Pune Shivajinagar in 1st half of June. For the 1st time at least since 2014, that June 1st half of Pune went completely dry. Yearwise 1st half June total (mm) as follows

2014: 10.1

2015: 80.4

2016: 35.2

2017: 88.1

2018: 61.9

2019: 41.5

2020: 112

2021: 57.4

2022: 28

2023: 20.4

2024: 231.0

2025: 132.9

2026: 0 

 

 

 

 14th June 

Let's give credit to Delhi AQI when it's due.. Not just criticising always **↓

                                              ** ↓↓↓

The reality of today's temperatures in India... With the focus on the Monsoon, the "deadly" heat Wave is forgotten.. The highest temperature in India today is only 42.8°c.. Which incidentally is normal for the station! 

 Vagaries Extreme Blog updated with Mumbai's new rare minimum temperature record