26th April Post

Indian Sub Continent Heats Up

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Outlook from 27th - 30th April

Mumbai: 

Hot but Humid and sweaty temperature at 34°and nights warm at 26°... Real feel temperature 39° and AQI = 150. 😓

Pune: Hot, very hot with Thunder Showers on 27th/28th. Temperature at 40° with nights at 21°

Mahabaleshwar : Hot for a hill station at 32-22° 😓

Goa:Hot humid at 34°

Sambhajinagar : Very hot and sunny.. Temperature at 42°and night at 27°. 

Akola : Even hotter at 46°

Bharuch : Hot at 40°..but better on 29th/30th at 37°.

New Delhi: A few stray Dust Storm but hot in the day at 42° and low at 27°

Monsoon Watch - 2

 🌧️ Vagaries Monsoon Watch – 2

 23rd April

1. Mascarene Highs

Forming speed is slow and inadequate at present.

The pressure gradient is yet to strengthen sufficiently to support robust cross-equatorial flow.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

2. Seasonal Low & Heat

The seasonal low (~1000 mb) is developing on expected lines for now.

Interior regions have already touched 45°C (17th April), indicating progressive heating.

Indicator: 🟢 Normal

3. Equatorial Winds

With the Mascarene High still weak, the SE winds remain south of the equator and feeble.

Cross-equatorial push is yet to establish, which is crucial for monsoon onset dynamics.

Indcator:  -ve

4. Bay Branch

No organized or strong convective systems seen in the Bay yet.

The Bay branch currently lacks momentum and structure.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

5. ENSO Status (April 2026)

Current State: ENSO Neutral

Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly

Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)

Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026

This evolution is not supportive for a strong early monsoon.

Indicator: 🔴 Strong El Niño tendency

🔎 Vagaries Summary

South West Monsoon likely delayed, especially in the Bay branch.

West Coast arrival currently estimated around 1st week of June.

Overall tilt: Slightly negative as of now.

⚠️ These assessments are based on current parameters and may evolve in the next 10 days.

19th April Weather Statistics:

Hottest Place in the World:

Akola & Wardha ( Vidarbha):  45°.

10 Hottest of 🇮🇳 India:

City Max & Min temperatures:

Mumbai AP: 34.8°c - 24.1°c

Pune: 40.7°c - 22.4°c

New Delhi Sjung: 40.1°c - 21.7°c

Kolkata AP: 35.8°c - 28.2°c

Chennai ( Meena): 37.9°c - 26.4°c

Ahmedabad: 40.0°c -26.9°c

Highest Minimum Temperature: Raipur :29.9°C

18th April Post 

Pre Monsoon Showers:

Mumbai will be Partly cloudy on Sunday 19th and Monday 20th..Light rain expected on 21st.

Thunderstorms/hailstorm is expected across Maharashtra Goa and N.I. Karnataka from 20 April.

Ghat sections extending into the Madhya Maharashtra region. 🌩️

Pune/ Nasik/Satara and Mahabaleshwar will get evening Thunder showers from 20th Monday.

Hit-or-miss Thunderstorm activity near the interior Konkan ghat base will depend and  — some areas in Konkan and Goa may benefit if cells move westward.

Rainfall likely to spread further into Marathwada an Vidarbha next week from 22nd.

A wind convergence is the cause of April showers.

Light showers on 22nd/23rd expected in South Gujarat Coast.

18th April...The Rainfall due to storm

 

16th April:

Pune – Large Diurnal Swing Continues

• Max: 39.7°C (102°F)
• Min: 17.1°C (63°F)
• Diurnal Range: 22.6°C (≈ 41°F) 

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 Regional Pattern Strengthens

Location	Max °C	Min °C	Range °C
Ahilya Nagar	41.9	17.5	24.4  ( 45F)
Pune	39.7	17.1	22.6
Nasik	38.8	16.3	22.5

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 Vagaries Insight

 Now clearly a well-defined belt of extreme diurnal variation across:
Nasik – Pune – Ahilya Nagar axis

 Signals:

• Very dry lower atmosphere
• Cloud-free skies dominating
• Strong radiational cooling at night
• Peak pre-monsoon heating building rapidly

 Vagaries Line

“A striking inland signature — blistering afternoons giving way to surprisingly cool mornings, with diurnal ranges crossing 22–24°C across the Maharashtra plateau.”

14th April Day Maximum Temperatures 

As per Forecast estimate 

Panjim 34.0°

New Delhi 38.2°

Pune 39.9°