Friday, May 20, 2022

Posted on 20th May morning

As per the image posted yesterday evening under the snippets section, we saw some UAC induced thundershowers in Maharashtra! Here are some figures ending at 8:30am on 20/05/2022(in mm):

Sangli district:






Kolhapur district:








Satara district:







Pune district:


2.Saswad & Velhe:16





Ahmednagar district:



Solapur district:



Data Credits: RTSFROS & IMD

Complied By: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Thursday, May 19, 2022

 19th May

As on 19th, Monsoon not been established in Kerala, and therefore there is no official declaration of the Monsoon ( By IMD or Vagaries)....Explained below, it will be another 4/5 days before the Monsoon sets in over Kerala in strength.

A brief note on Southwest Monsoon - When Onset happens over Kerala, an offshore trough forms off the coast. Cyclonic circulations embedded in the UAC are common features, which help in northward advance of the Monsoon. 

At present, at 850  levels, the west/northwest wind convergence is seen near Kerala due to the UAC located near Kerala/TN border. There is no offshore trough. 

Tropical easterly jet at 200 hpa hasn't set in either. Additionally, the westerlies are not seen extending well into Tamil Nadu due to the UAC. 

With heavy falls over Kerala, the notion of Monsoon rains seems practical, but not as a set system...Such pseudo onset like conditions have happened  in the past, and mentioned in Vagaries a few times earlier. The rain with low clouds feels like Monsoon. But technically, considering the various above factors, proper atmospheric conditions of the Southwest Monsoon have not been established..


Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Maharashtra: Pre-Monsoon thunderstorm outlook for May 19-20.

🌧Rain/thundershowers likely in south Madhya Maharashtra districts of Kolhapur, Sangli, Solapur and Satara during next 2 days. 

Parts of Pune and Ahmednagar districts can get patchy rain/thundershowers.

Southern districts of Marathwada region such as Latur, Beed and Nanded can expect some thundershowers in parts. 

With the UAC expected to move north over land, parts of north Karnataka to also receive moderate to heavy thundershowers. 

महाराष्ट्र: 19-20 मे साठी मान्सूनपूर्व वादळाचा अंदाज.

पुढील 2 दिवसांत दक्षिण मध्य महाराष्ट्रातील कोल्हापूर, सांगली, सोलापूर आणि सातारा जिल्ह्यांमध्ये मेघगर्जनेसह पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता आहे.
पुणे आणि अहमदनगर जिल्ह्यांतील काही भागांत ढगांच्या गडगडाटासह पाऊस पडू शकतो.
मराठवाड्यातील दक्षिणेकडील जिल्हे जसे की लातूर, बीड आणि नांदेडमध्ये काही भागात मेघगर्जनेसह पावसाची शक्यता आहे.

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

17th May Post:

Time for pre-monsoon TS for parts of Southern West Coast!

Outlook till Thursday 20th May

Associated with the Upper-air circulation (UAC) over Kerala, moderate to heavy pre-monsoon rain/thunderstorms is likely over Kerala, Lakshadweep islands as well as coastal and Ghats of Karnataka. 

Bangalore and Mysore regions can also get moderate thundershowers with some localized heavy rain.

Western parts of  Tamil Nadu to also witness some thundershowers during this time.

Goa may see light rain in some parts towards late evening or night. 

Mumbai: *This Week (17th-22nd): Hot/Sultry with high humidity ..The day temperatures will be around 34c, but the feel will be of 38c. 

*Nights at 27/28c will be warm and stuffy.

*Pre monsoon rain in some areas may be experienced from next week (24th onwards).

Pune: *This Week (17th -22nd): Hot and sunny  with day around 39c, and feels like 40c. 

*Next week (23rd ..), the day s are expected to get better with the temperatures falling 3/4c to around 35c. 

*Pre monsoon patchy rains expected next week (24th Onwards.)

Monday, May 16, 2022

 16th May ...2022...Monsoon On Schedule in Andamans

From Thai Met Dept :

South West Monsoon Advancing into Andamans and Maldives..ThailandNo. 5 Time Issued May 16, 2022the moderate southwest monsoon prevails across the Andaman Sea, Thailand and the Gulf. 

From Sri Lanka Met Dept:


Issued at 05.30 a.m. on 16 May 2022

South-west monsoon condition is gradually establishing over the island.

 Heavy showers about 100 mm can occur at some places in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Kandy, Nuwara-Eliya, Galle and Matara districts.

Current Rains in Kerala due to UAC inland and strong Winds fro W/NW...

After a lull in Rains, 

We will notice the 200 hpa jets getting organised for proper Monsoon advance into Kerala...South West Monsoon will establish in South Kerala around 27th-30 th May...


Forecasted for 26th

Sunday, May 15, 2022

 15th May... 

 Banda: 49c, broke the all time record of May

 Delhi temperatures

Gurugram: 48.1c

Noida: 47.1c

Mungeshpur: 49.2

Najafgarh: 49.1

Safdarjung: 45.6

Pitampura: 47.3

Ridge: 47.2

Jafarpur: 47.5

Palam: 46.4

Ayanagar: 46.8

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Posted on 20th May morning

As per the image posted yesterday evening under the snippets section, we saw some UAC induced thundershowers in Maharashtra! Here are some f...