Tuesday, August 30, 2011


The UAC in the Northern Arabian Sea has descended, on Tuesday, as a low, AS-2, over Gujarat and adjoining Arabian Sea. Currently at 1000 mb, it is expected to deepen to 998 mb by Wednesday and further to 996 mb.

In the Kutch region , where rains were anticipated, Bachau had 149 mms, Mundra 82 mms,Mandvi 52 mms, and various places between 40-50 mms till Tuesday morning. These are high figures for a desert region.

We see intense clouding and precipitation in the Western and NW segments of AS-2. Heavy rainfall amounting to 244 mms was recorded on Tuesday in Padidan, Sindh. Nawabshah (SIndh) notched up 102 mms and Lasbella 50 mms.

AS-2, is expected to strengthen to 998 mb and move slightly Westwards, thereby precipitating more rains in lower and coastal Sindh on Wednesday. Rain amounts in certain palces could again cross 100 mms.
By Thursday, AS-2 could deepen to 996 mb, and position itself still Westwards off the Gujarat coast. Precipitation would continue in coastal Sindh and interiors on Thursday also.

Karachi was cloudy on Tuesday with a high of 33c after overnight thunderstorm. Karachi would be cloudy on Wednesday, with a few spells of heavy rain. Thursday would also see a few showers, again, some heavy and rains up to 20-25 mms..

Meanwhile, in the Bay, BB-5, is persisting in the same area on Tuesday, off the North A.P./Orissa coast, at 1000 mb. Would now expect system to move inland and position itself over Orissa by Wednesday. Further movement could be towards M.P.

Resultantly: Heavy rains on Wednesday over coastal A.P, Orissa, and parts of E.Chattisgarh due to BB-5.
In the west, heavy rains in Kutch, coastal Saurashtra due to AS-2.

For Thursday, BB-5 will bring rains to Eastern M.P. and Vidharbha.
AS-2 will bring increasing rains along coastal Saurashtra and North Konkan.

Mumbai: Tuesday the city show a marked decrease in rains, with a few showers spraying 1 mm in Colaba and 9 mms for S'Cruz.

Wednesday would be partly cloudy with sunny spells, and a few odd showers. Rain amount 15- 20 mms.

Thursday: Cloudy, with occasional showers, indicating an increase in rainfall over Wednesday. The odd evening showers could be heavy. Rain amount 30 mms.

Pune will be cloudy with drizzles in some parts on wednesday.

Thursday will be cloudy, with a couple of medium intensity spells of rain.


Monday, August 29, 2011

Click here for enlarged view

"The UAC over Orissa persisits and may descend as a sea level low."--That was vagaries yesterday, and now on 29th, we have a low, 1002 mb at sea level off the North A.P./Orissa coast. Low is expected to remain in present position for a couple of days.

What it will do is , pull the western end of the sea level monsoon axis a bit southwards, and what can happen is, the upper level axis can merge with the sea level axis, and form a sort of "elongated "low over South Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh.

Result will be good rainfall (see vagaries map) next 2 days over S. Rajasthan, Kutch, N.Gujarat and along the axis line. We could see good precipitation in coastal A.P. and Orissa due to the low.

Rainfall over the Konkan and south Gujarat coast will return to "normal" levels from Tuesday.
Places in South interior Mah. could see a cumulative precipitation up to 75 mms next 2 days.

Lower Sindh will receive precipitation from Tuesday thru Wednesday. Rains could be heavy along the coast . Karachi can expect rainfall from Tuesday thru Thursday. Wednesday could see some heavy showers in certain areas, and rainfall could measure about 20-25 mms.

As expected, rains north of the axis have been negligible, and with the axis probably shifting a bit more (South), i see fair conditions for the next 2/3 days in Northern India (including Delhi).
RK reports of fair and clear weather from Delhi. Kathmandu will continue with the current thundershower (on some days) in the evening, with partly cloudy days.
Neeraj mentions of evening thunderstorms in Kathmandu. And both ask if this is a sign of monsoon withdrawal ?


The first monsoon withdrawal starts from regions of Eastern-most Pakistan and Western Rajsthan, and the earliest indications are the formation of a high (clockwise) at 700-850 mb level. So, we will wait for the current developments to "rain off' and cease. Shall discuss this after a few days again.

Mumbai:

During the day, Monday, was drier than the previous 3 days.

Colaba received 95 mms of rain, while S'Cruz notched up 33 mms during the day, till night. (Average 64 mms, vagaries estimate: 55-70 mms).

Forecast for Tuesday, 30th:

With a reduction in rain intensity, it will be a breather for the authorites (to re-organise their priorities) and Mumbaites in general .Cloudy skies, with a few bright intervals. 4/5 Brief passing showers, a few heavy. Rain amount (average) 25 mm

Wednesday, 31st:

Cloudy with sunny intervals. A few showers. Rain amount 25-30 mms
.

Monday’s Latest Update of Rainfall figures of Mumbai and Lakes on Mumbai Page

Sunday, August 28, 2011







If one recalls, vagaries had anticipated a "deepening " of the upper air axis by sunday, and precipitate heavy rains along its line. Well, deepened it has, but, the axis has moved a bit more to the North than expected, and as per the IMD special bulletin, "it passes through north Arabian Sea, south Gujarat, north Maharashtra, south Chattisgarh, Orissa."

And consequently the rainfall has moved into Gujarat, and is spreading into adjoining Sindh region. Precipitation is seen all along the axis to the East (see image above).

I would estimate rainfall intensity reducing in Mah. and increasing on Monday towards West M.P. and North Gujarat and, again, specially Kutch.

Rains have already spread into Kutch.

Karachi may now get its rains sooner than expected, maybe from Monday evening ? In fact, Karachi was hot and stuffy on Sunday, with the temperatures ranging between 34c and 28c.



Tulsi records 566 mms !

Some of the last 24 hrs rain figures (above 200 mms) from Maharashtra from Saturday's rains (figures up to 8.30 am Sunday).

Damini (Koyna) 284 mms, Mokhada (Thane ) : 246 mms, Mumbai S'Cruz: 220 mms, Vikrangad and Talasari (Thane) 206 mms,

Mumbai Lakes: Tulsi 566 mms, Bhatsa 174 mms, Modak Sagar 159 mms, Vaitarna 67mms ,Tansa 163 mms , Vihar 237 mms ,

With a vortex embedded in the upper level trough,rainfall is steady in Mumbai on Sunday. Monday's forecast hold good. Frequent heavy showers, decreasing later in the day. Rain amount 35-50 mms.

The UAC over Orissa persisits and may descend as a sea level low.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

With a firm UAC "pushing" from central India, we see good amounts of rainfall around the system, that is in the region of south Gujarat, North Mah and Konkan on Sunday and Monday. These regions could see rain amounts of 50-70 mms in several places per day, with heavy falls up to 150 mms in a few places.

Sunday, Vidharbha and rest of Mah will see precipitation in the range of 20-40 mms in several places.
However, some rainfall will be creeping into Saurashtra and North Gujarat from Sunday.

It would be fair to forecast the movement of clouds and rain from the systems to move along the Sindh coast from Monday. The coast could see rains on Monday. Karachi will have clouds, and rain up to 10 mms on Tuesday, and lighter showers on Wednesday.

Mumbai Special:

On Saturday, rainfall was intermittent and heavy in Mumbai, and more so in the Northern suburbs. During the day, up to 8.30 pm on Saturday, Colaba measured 67 mms, while it was 132 mms at S'Cruz. Thus averaging 99 mms.

Forecast:

Sunday: Wet and soaking. Intermittent rains, with periods of heavy rains. Could be with thunder and gusty winds. Some areas prone to flooding may see water logging. Rain amount 75-90 mms (average).

Monday: Again wet with frequent showers, some heavy. Rains mostly during the day, with decreasing intensity from evening. Rain amount 55-70 mms (average).

Levels of all the lakes supplying water to Mumbai are showing a steady rise. On 27th, the total storage was 1490 Mcum, against a full capacity of 1583 Mcum. That works out to be 11.9 lmlitres today, against a full of 13.0 lmlitres.


Friday, August 26, 2011

Updated 3.30 pm Saturday

Two UACs, one west of Gujarat in the Arabian Sea, and another over South-East M.P. is now established as on Saturday morning, at 700 hpa level. Hence, the upper air trough now runs thru joining these 2 UACs. Vagaries anticipated this development to be “complete” by Sunday (as mentioned on ..), but everything is a day ahead of schedule ! (At least something runs ahead of schedule !)

Consequently, precipitation is good along this axis, and in the event of this, it is quite possible that these 2 systems remain for another 24 hrs..to be seen though.

Mumbai rainfall: Colaba up to Saturday 8.30 am : 38 mms, and from 8.30 am to (Saturday) 3pm: 35 mms.

S’Cruz.. 83 mms and 86 mms. Respectively.

Thane received 10 cms of rain overnite.

Amongst the Lakes supplying water to Mumbai, Vihar got 148 mms, Tulsi 121 mms, Tansa 68 mms Modaksagar 61 mms, Bhatsa 56 mms and Vaitarne 30 mms upto Saturday morning.

Updated at 5 am Saturday:

It seems the current upper air monsoon axis is set to deepen, to some extent. As per estimates, by Sunday, it will host 2 embedded UACs, one in the arabian Sea south of Karachi, and another over Central Mah, that is on the 2 ends of the trough.

This development would substantially increase precipitation along the "deep" axis, and would be excetionally heavy where the UAC would be positioned. Various models differ slightly to the actual placing of the axis and the UACs embedded in it.

On Friday, a UAC has formed and is over Orissa. The upper air monsoon axis line at 5.8 kms passes through north Arabian Sea, north Maharashtra, south Chattisgarh, Orissa.

It can be deciphered, that from Saturday, thru Monday, heavy rains could be expected along Mah. coast, madhya Mah, marathwada, adjoining south M.P. and adjoining south and coastal Gujarat. Lesser intensity rains would occur in Vidharbh.


Come Saturday, the satellite colour map of Saturday morning indicates the rains have commenced in the regions mentioned above.

Bharuch could get good rainfall Saturday thru Tuesday, around 100 mms accumulated.

Mumbai:

Forecast:

Saturday: Forecasted rains are in a hurry, and have moved in early on Saturday. Morning hours, showers, getting heavy and more frequent. Rain amount 70-80 mms.

Sunday: Fairly frequent heavy showers, with intermittent drizzles. Heavy showers may flood some prone areas. Thunder possible in afternoon/evening. Rain accompanied by gusty winds. Rain amount 70-80 mms.

Monday: Intermittent rains, heavy at times. decreasing by evening. Rain amount 35-50 mms.

From Saturday thru Monday, all lakes supplying water to Mumbai will get a cumulative rainfall of 150-200 mms each, and upper Vaitarna will get very heavy rains as in Nasik district.

Very heavy rains Saturday thru Monday in satellite townships of Mumbai, and in Matheran and Lonavala.

Matheran and Panvel could receive heavy rains on Friday night also.

Weekend rains will be heavy in districts of Nasik, Jalgaon (very heavy), Aurangabad, Akola and moderate in Pune and Nagar districts.

Next 2 days, Situation as it develops will be reviewed on vagaries.



SPECIAL COVERAGE OF HURRICANE IRENE 2011
600-MILE WIDE HURRICANE IRENE SET TO BUZZSAW UP EAST COAST, HOME TO MILLIONS. SEVERE DAMAGE FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND A REAL CONCERN….

Vagaries readers interested in chasing Hurricane Irene, Please keep checking Mark’s Blog for Constant Update


Thursday, August 25, 2011

The sea level axis line of the monsoon now is at its normal position, and passes thru Rajasthan, North M.P. and thru Chattisgarh into the Bay. It is embedded with 2 UACs. One over Rajasthan and another over Chattisgarh.
Another monsoon axis at an upper level now also passes from the Arabian Sea thru N.Maharashtra and Chattisghar into the bay.
Off shore trough along the west coast is fairly active.

Precipitation all along these developments will occur on Thursday.
Expect good rainfall along the axis in Rajasthan, M.P, and Chattisgarh, and heavy falls in Eastern Gujarat and interior Mah. West coast will receive precipitation with heavy falls too.
Interior Karnataka and entire T.N. could benefit with fairly good rains next 24 hrs.

Rainfall creeping into central Nepal on Thursday.Kathmandu will will overcast with some heavy showers for Thursday.
Due to the upper air axis, cloudy weather with medium rains could occur along the Sindh coast line of Pakistan and Southern regions of Sindh. Karachi could get a few spells of rain. Northern and Central Pakistan will get showers due to the sea level trough line.

Mumbai will receive frequent to showers on Thursday, some very heavy. Rain will be continuous till noon, when flooding could be possible. Gusty winds along with the showers could be expected. Rain amounts during day 60-80 mms. Some areas could measure up to 100 mms in 24 hrs.

Pune: Cloudy with spells of rain and some heavy showers in parts of the city.


Wednesday, August 24, 2011

After sticking to the Himalayan foothills for 36 hrs, the monsoon axis has taken a southward dip, and returned to its normal position. It has "carried" the embedded UAC.
While it was at its north position, we had discussed a rush of easterlies along the line into U.P, Bihar and Nepal.
These sub-Himalayan regions got the precipitation Mon/Tue. Kathmandu managed 27 mms and the day cooling down to 26c.

Now with the axis dipping south, the moisture brought in yesterday (by the easterlies) has managed to "accumulate" over the UAC over Punjab, Jammu and N.Rajasthan.

Good precipitation due to this has occured over the mentioned region. Rainfall ranged between 40-100 mms, with Delhi measuring 40 mms till Wed. morning.

As the axis will hold on, good precipitation is expected on Wed in Jammu region, Punjab and N.Rajasthan. Very heavy precipitation on Wed in Punjab, Ganganagar region of N.Rajasthan and S.Kashmir. Rainfall spreading into Punjab region of Pakistan today.
A couple of heavy showers will also occur over Delhi and Haryana during the day.

Decrease in Nepal and Utteranchal.

The west coast off shore trough has re-activated, and is now precipitating heavy showers from the Dahanu in N.Konkan to southern Gujarat coast, and in the central areas of coastal Karnataka.

The eastern end of the axis has dipped into the bay, and hosts a UAC at 500-700 mb off the Orissa coast.

Mumbai could see some showers from afternoon, a few heavy , and overcast drizzle till evening.

Pune: Overcast skies, with light rain in some areas. Brightening towards afternoon.

Hurricane Irene Set for Major Status, May Become Cat 4 Monster Over Bahamas...vagaries readers interested in full details check Mark's Blog


Tuesday, August 23, 2011


"Irene Upgraded to Hurricane Status, Looking More Threatening to U.S"....For Vagaries' Readers wanting more on this, Perfect details on Mark's Blog. Regularly Updated.

Parts of Mumbai had good showers in the morning "session" today (Tuesday). However the rainfall varied and till noon it was (North to South) : 9 mms at Andheri, 1 mm at Vile Parle, 15 mms at Dadar, 11 mms at Wadala, 26 mms at Nana Chowk, 13 mms at Byculla, 16 mms at Colaba (from overnite).

Overall position is put up in last night's blog.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Monsoon Axis moves Northwards again and crashes into the Himalayas. Cannot be too sure about another system in the bay within a few days, as the eastern end of axis is far too North.

More active monsoon in Utteranchal and western Nepal. Increase in central regions also possible. Easterlies may bring precipitation in Northern U.P. and Bihar.

Current subdued rainfall in Kathmandu may reactivate Tuesday. Kathmandu showed a max temperature of 28.5c. Expecting some rains to drop the day'shigh slightly fro the next 2 days. But, the capital is still short of its august average rainfall by 135 mms. Seems theis month will remain in the deficit.

But the rest of the region below the axis can expect subdued rains next 2 days (Tuesday/Wednesday). Due to absence of any systems, conditions for systems' originating rainfall may decrease.

Due to excess moisture contents, next 2 days, may witness some independent convective developments in the Mah. region giving rise to thunder cells and cb clouds. Thundershowers may pop up in Madhya Mah. (Nasik, Aurangabad, Ahmednagar, Pune, Satara and Solapur regions), and Eastern Goa.
North Konkan may get heavy rain in patches.

Save Southern and Eastern Gujarat, most of the state will not get meaningfull rains Tuesday/Wednesday.

Precipitation in the Sindh region moves west as anticipated, with Karachi receiving some rains on Monday afternoon. Expected to decrease considerably from tonite.


Sunday, August 21, 2011

1.-UAC moves into Sindh (Pakistan) and precipitates good rainfall. Karachi receives thundershowers from 4 pm Sunday. Around 10 mms rain recorded.
System expected to fizzle out and expect a cloud "spreading " on Monday. Precipitation spreading westwards into Balochistan.
Karachi will have overcast skies on Monday with some showers. Clearing by night.

2.-MJO activates, and another UAC expected thru the Bay route early next week.

3.- Sporadic thundershowers expected to pop up in interior Mah. i.e. Madhya Mah, Marathwada and Vid. Thundershowers also in adjoining North Karnataka and South Gujarat.

4.-Some parts of Mumbai had sporadic showers with thunder/lightning on Sunday evening. Northern suburbs of Kandivali, Vikhroli and Vile Parle measured 10 mms in the evening, while south Mumbai had around 3 mms of drizzles.

Monday/Tuesday will see a cloudy morning with light drizzling. After brightening up a bit, skies will be overcast by afternoon. Thundershowers expected in some parts by evening.



Thursday, August 18, 2011

Mumbai/Pune/Mahableshwar weekend forecast on Mumbai Page.


Thursday 18th, the monsoon axis runs thru Punjab, South U.P. and thru W.Bengal Kolkata into the Bay. So, it is a little north of the normal position. It is not actually in a break monsoon position. It was expected to go further north into the Himalayan foothills, but the eastern end has dipped into the bay, and kept the axis positioned as it is today.

The off shore trough along the west coast strengthens a bit, with a vortex upto-30 embedded in the trough off Goa/ Karnataka coast. That would mean the axis could shift south again.
IMD mentions the formation of a UAC in the NW Bay.

Apperantly, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology mentions that "that an MJO event will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean" in the current week. That would analyse into the MJO entering into an active phase sometime between 18th to 22nd August. If it so happens, it would be reverting back to our original forecast.

On Thursday during the day, some rainfall was measured in H.P, U.P, Bihar and parts of Bengal as a result of the axis line. Some particular places in South Konkan saw a max of 5 cms.
Bareilly (U.P.) Alibag ­5 each, Mumbai (Santacruz), Ratnagiri, Bhira, Agumbe and Vengurla­4 each,
Behraich, Sultanpur, Passighat, Honavar­3 each and Shimla, Fursatganj, Patna, Siliguri, Mandla, Surat, Mumbai (Colaba)­2 each.

Looking at the situation, I would forecast for Friday/Saturday:
1. Heavy rainfall along the S.Konkan, Goa and Karnataka coast due to the vortex. Rain amounts would amount to 120-150 mms in 24 hrs period.
North Konkan and South Int. Karnataka would get some moderate rains amounting to 50-75 mms in 24 hrs.
2. Due to the UAC, heavy rainfall in coastal Orissa and North A.P. coast. Moderate rainfall upto 25-35 mms in Vidharbh.
3. Decreasing rainfall in Northern India and Nepal.

Northern regions of Pakistan received some rain on Thursday. Karachi saw a high of 33c. Do not see any change, except a further decrease in current rainfall, in Pakistan next 2 days.

Mumbai:

Thursday,18th, Mumbai saw some heavy afternoon/evening showers in some areas. While Vikhroli measured just 8 mms during the day till 10 pm, Deonar recorded 24 mms, Andheri notched up 37 mms and Colaba 22 mms.

Friday: Cloudy, with brighter intervals. 4/5 showers, a couple of them heavy in some areas. Rain amount (average Colaba/S'Cruz): 20-25 mms.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with sunny intervals. A couple of showers with rain amounts up to 20 mms.

Mumbai/Pune weekend forecast tomorrow.






Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Vagaries has put up a new opinion poll few days ago. To make it interesting, I request readers to cast their vote, and put in the answer in the comments as well, with your names. Would make it interesting, as I shall put in the opinions with names in the inter action page of Vagaries.

Request readers to put in their opinion.

International Page updated on 17th August with NZ videos.

BB5 moved North, now is as a low pressure over Haryana, resulted in heavy precipitation in the region. As a result, the monsoon axis now runs along the Himalayan foothills, transforming the situation in a "Break Monsoon" condition. This has been discussed and explained in the Vagaries on the 14th.

Places in Utterkhand measured heavy rainfall like : Mukteshwar­23 cms, Pantnagar­21cms, Dehradun­14 cms,and Tehri­13cms on Mon/Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, Dehra Dun had another 75 mms and Agra 30 mms. Jaipur and Kota received showers on Monday and Tuesday.
Many places in H.P. had rains from 37 mms to 88 mms (Sundernagar). Bhuntar measured 76 mms. Keylog which had snow a few days back, received 42 mms rain, with a minimum temperature of 8c.
Delhi and Haryana too had showers on Mon/Tuesday.
The plains of Nepal received heavy rains on Tuesday, with Biratnagar measuring 102 mms and Dhangadi 78 mms.

Meanwhile the UAC over Gujarat and adjoining areas has fizzled out. Gujarat has finally gone dry.

With a break monsoon situation, the rainfall in the entire peninsula region has decreased. And with BB5 showing signs of weakening, the rainfall in the Delhi, Haryana, region will decrease from Wednesday.Rains will continue till Friday over the Utterkhand Hills and Western Nepal. Kathmandu will recieve the showers for a couple of days from Wednesday as anticipated.
The eastern end of the axis over Bengal and Bangladesh will continue to receive good rains for a couple of days.
Expecting decrease in rainfall in Southern and Central Pakistan from Wednesday. Almost dry in Sindh. Karachi daytime temperature may rise to 34/35c by Thursday. Few showers in the hills of extreme Northern regions.

Very difficult to estimate how long this break monsoon will remain, could from a few days to a week. As per my views, it is linked to the weak MJO phase currently in effect. Have explained and estimated earlier in vagaries that the MJO would be supressed from the 5th of August till around the 20th. Latest MJO forecasts estimate and summarise the supressed phase to regain from around the 24th August.

Mumbai Page updated with local weather for those interested.

Figures provided by Pradeep for Vagaries:
All India SWM Rainfall from 01.06.2011 to 14.08.2011 (75 days)
-------------
Rainfall in mm’s (Min 3000 mm)

1.Kollur (Karnataka) – 5592
2.Agumbe (Karnataka) – 5412
3.Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) – 5382
4.Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) – 4889
5.Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) – 4422
6.Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) – 4192
7.Kadra (Karnataka) – 4006
8.Bhira (Maharashtra) – 3849
9.Siddapura (Karnataka) – 3817
10.Rajapur (Maharashtra) – 3667

Many other heavy rainfall places which receive rainfall above 4000 mm such as Buxaduar, Matheran, Passighat, Devala and Shirali have got below normal rains so far.


Sunday, August 14, 2011

BB5 is situated at the tri -border of South-West U.P./North M.P./East Rajasthan. Though at sea level, its upper air circulations exten upwards into 850 mb and 700 mb.
There are reports of heavy precipitation near and around the BB5 area.

Next few days, 15th and 16th, the system will track NW towards Delhi, and over Delhi it will precipitate heavy rains in the capital on both these days.
Tracking Northwards, we can expect good precipitation around Wed/Thursday in Haryana, Punjab, Uttrakhand and H.P. Also, expect good precipitation in Punjab and Northern regions of Pakistan.
Substantial increase in rains in Kathmandu from Monday thru Wednesday.

Once the system fizzles out in the Himalyas, and the monsoon axis shifts North, it will almost be like a break monsoon situation (for the Peninsula region) from Thursday 18th/Friday 19th.

Meanwhile, the UAC currently weak over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, will fade away in the next 24 hrs over the current position. Rainfall decreasing sharply in Gujarat and across the border in Sindh.

New Zealand In Grip Of Memorable Icy Blast…See International Page of Vagaries and Mark’s Blog

Saturday, August 13, 2011


Heavy Rains in Saurashtra (again) on Sunday !

As the recent low fizzled out over Sindh Pakistan, its remnant, a UAC remains over North Gujarat and adjoining Sindh.
The UAC at 700 mb, is expected to remain over the region on Sunday.

As a result, expect heavy rains in Saurashtra, and parts of Kutch and rest Gujarat on Sunday. Bharuch may continue getting rains on Saturday night, and then some showers on Sunday.
System will move slightly west on Monday. Rainfall will be fairly good on Monday in N.Gujarat and Kutch.

Bordering Sindh (Southern) will get the benefit too. May just elude Karachi of meaningful rains !


As BB5 hovers over Jharkhand/U.P. /M.P. border, it would be in order to expect precipitation in the corridor conecting the 2 systems.
Shown in Vagaries map.
Delhi can again get some good monsoon showers Sunday and on Independance day.

Almost dry/cloudy weather is expected in the Madhya Mah, Marathwada and N.I.Karnataka regions.

Mumbai:

The rain frequency increased in Mumbai from Saturday evening, with heavy showers lashing the city from 8 pm. ( The expected -20 deep vortex had developed by Sat.) Though vagaries had expected the increase during the day itself. I presume the estimated 25 mms will be covered in the night ( 10 mms till 10.30 pm).

Sunday forecast is maintained, :" Cloudy and overcast. showers will be frequent, with a couple of them heavy in some areas. Rain amount 25 mms." I shall add: With Gusty winds during the showers.

Pune: Sunday will be partly cloudy with a drizzle in some parts. Rain amount 3 mms

Nagpur : Had some 4 mms of rain on Saturday, but a shower or two overnight, and cloudy weather on Sunday. Rain decreases on Sunday.

Himachal has season's first snowfall

Himachal Pradesh got the season's first snowfall early Saturday, 13th August.

“Keylong town and the nearby hills have been experiencing snowfall since Saturday morning”, receiving 4 cm of snow till 8.30 a.m.

The high hills like the Lady of Keylong and the Seven Sisters in the Lahaul Valley were enveloped in snow.

Rohtang pass has received more than one foot snow and the entire Lahaul-Spiti district has been covered with a thick blanket of snow. Manali-Leh highway has been blocked following heavy snowfall on Rohtang and Baralacha-la.


Friday, August 12, 2011



The Myth of Global Warming. Things Everone should Know: ....Part 2.

Continuing, I still think man thinks too much of himself.

Professor Murry Salby is Chair of Climate Science at Macquarie University, who over the last two years he has been looking at C12 and C13 ratios and CO2 levels around the world, and has come to the conclusion that -"man-made emissions have only a small effect on global CO2 levels. It’s not just that man-made emissions don’t control the climate, they don’t even control global CO2 levels."

So, that proves another point in question- It’s not just that man-made emissions don’t control the climate, they don’t even control global CO2 levels.

Despite increasing evidence that "global warming" climate change is not the unified scientific theory it has been promoted to be, vested interests continue to push for stringent limits on carbon dioxide emissions. The forces at work behind the global warming regulatory theory have, at worst, covered up, ignored and manipulated climate evidence to make the case that humans cause global warming and therefore humans should be punished.

Retrieving our weather archives, let’s focus on a small sampling of some of the more notable extreme weather events during the years 1886 – 1894. to ponder upon:

-1886 was the most active hurricane season in US history. Seven hurricanes made landfall, including two major hurricanes.

-Terribly destructive storms also struck Europe that year.- On October 16th, A 'Great Hurricane" passed over England and Ireland, bringing the "heaviest rainstorms in living memory".On May 13th, a "terrble Hurricane" sweeps across Spain.

-Drought in England

28th June 1887.


-Intense heat in Europe

: 22nd August 1892.

So, according to the Climate Change theorists, can we assume that this GW and climate change is going on since the last 125 years ??

And coming to more recent extremes of the 1900's:

-Arctic Warmed 10 Degrees Between 1900 And 1947

-New paper finds Arctic sea ice strongly linked to varying storm activity: "Interannual changes of Arctic sea ice are related to varying storm activity

Fewer summer storms favor low sea ice at the end of the melt season

Storms impact the cloud cover and ice motion, and consequently sea ice melt."-James A. Screen et al

In particular, fewer cyclones over the central Arctic Ocean during the months of May, June, and July appear to favor a low sea ice area at the end of the melt season. Years with large losses of sea ice are characterized by abnormal cyclone distributions and tracks

And of-course our media.however responsible (or irresponsible) the media is, it plays a very prominent part in bringing to prominence any bogey or fact.

The media trying to blame last winter's cold on global warming reminds me of George Orwell's book 1984, where it was said to be desirable to have the ability to accept whatever "truth" the party puts out, no matter how absurd it may be.

Orwell described it as "...loyal willingness to say black is white when party discipline demands this.

It also means the ability to believe that black is white, and more, to know black is white, and forget that one has ever believed the contrary."

...to be continued

contributions from Climate Depot and co2 science.

Thursday, August 11, 2011



Very Heavy rains have precipitated in the Kutch regions on Wednesday and Thursday. Bhuj receiving 150 mms and Mandvi 119 mms and Gandhidham 117 mms amongst the highest. Rainfall will decrease substantially from Friday.

The low, now over eastern Sindh in Pakistan, has precipitated very heavy rainfall in Sindh region. Mithi being the highest with 291 mms. Hyderabad (Sindh) measured 104 mms of rain and Karachi saw between 14-26 mms in different areas.
Vagaries had predicted heavy rains for Hyderabad region as the core of the system seemed to be heading westwards in that direction, with favourable lifted index.

System is expected to weaken by Friday, and then linger on as an UAC till Saturday. Friday heavy rains will continue in Southern Sindh regions, before tapering off by Saturday evening. Lower Sindh cities can still receive heavy rains exceeding 75 mms till Friday evening.

Karachi will have overcast conditions for Friday with a few light/medium showers. Saturday we may see a decrease in rain amounts.

Another low has formed in the W.Bengal/Jharkhand region. Not expecting it to move beyond this region.

Mumbai for the weekend:

Friday: Cloudy with 4/5 showers, of medium duration, during the entire day . A couple of these could be brief and heavy. Rain amount 10-15 mms.


Saturday: Overcast with frequency of showers increasing during the day. A few showers will be heavy and of longer duration. Rain amount around 25 mms.

Sunday: Cloudy and overcast. showers will be frequent, with a couple of them heavy in some areas. Rain amount 25 mms.


Wednesday, August 10, 2011

As the low pressure in Rajasthan moves west, lying over SW Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh (Pakistan), it intensifies a bit. We had anticipated a bit of strengthening yesterday. The cloudburst and downpours across the border in lower Sindh was extremely heavy. The heaviest rainfall figures on Wednesday were (Pakistan):

Mithi 309, Nagarparker 140, Chcehro 132, Diplo 48, Chorr 36, Garidopatta 30, Badin 15, Hyderabad 12mm.

In Kutch (India), reports of heavy to very heavy rains were reported, and first hand direct reports speak of rainfall between 125 -150 mms at various places. The only confirmed reports from IMD say Bhuj with 75 mms and Naliya with 50 mms.

Moving west, system will move away from Kutch, and weaken by tomorrow evening over Sindh Pakistan. The Hyderabad region in Sindh will receive heavy rains on Thursday, with some heavy thundershowers in Karachi during Wednesday night. Decrease in rainfall from Friday. Overnight rain amount may be around 30 mms.

Wednesday was cooler in Karachi, with the high at 30c, and some rains in the evening.

The UAC over Bengal has moved into Jharkhand state.

For Thursday and Friday: Very little rainfall in the interior Mah, Karnataka, T.N. and M.P. Rainfall will be almost negligible in Gujarat and less than normal showers in Konkan.

Jharkhand, Bengal and NE states will receive some heavy showers.

Mumbai for Thursday/Friday

Sunny day with cloudy intervals.Day high will be 32c.

A few passing showers of medium intensity in some areas. Rain amounts up to 10 mms per day.

Pune: Thursday/Friday will be cloudy with warm sunny spells. Drizzles in some areas.

Weekend weather for Mumbai/Pune will be up tomorrow.

Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Fairly good rainfall occured in the eastern Gujarat districts of Vadodra, Sabarkantha and Panchmahal on Monday/Tuesday. Saurashtra areas was devoid of much rain.

Due to good wind shear in its south, almost 50 knts, The low pressure over West M.P. has moved into Southern region of Rajasthan. As a result of the Maximum Level of free convection coming down to 1000 metres, we see very good clouding in the Southern and SE segment.

Due to favourable conditions, the low may deepen a bit more on Wednesday.
Result will be heavy rains in Northern Gujarat and Kutch region on Wednesday. Heavy rains will continue in Kutch on Thursday, with around 150 mms expected in some places in a 24 hr period till Thursday.
As the low is expected to merge with the seasonal low, I think we can expect very heavy downpours in the Barmer and Western Rajasthan areas.
The deserts are to receive heavy rains next 2 days !

Across the border, areas of Lower Sindh will receive heavy rains from Wednesday, and Thursday Karachi will see some sharp rain showers. Some showers in the city could be heavy, as the system shows tendency to strengthen tomorrow and remain so for the next 36 hrs.
20-25 mms of rain won't be out of place.

Elsewhere, in the Peninsula, or the Northern and Eastern states (barring the NE), I do not see any heavy or widespread rainfall till Friday. Will continue to remain low intensity.
Rains will be easing off in Nepal, for a few days.

Mumbai forecast put up yesterday for Wed/Thu remains valid.

Monday, August 08, 2011

Please see interaction Page for my replies/views to your comments on the GW article.

By the way, US has changed the nomenclature to "Climate Change" now..its no longer GW (maybe realisation is better late than never -:)))


Report Below Updated Monday Night:


The UAC which was over S.E. Uttar Pradesh, is now located over M.P. and has descended to sea level as a low pressure area at 994 mb. Expected to move West/NW and slide into S.Rajasthan.

Result will be heavy rainfall west M.P.and Northern Gujarat next 2 days Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall up to 100 mms expected in these regions.
Moderate rains over Saurashtra for Tuesday and Wednesday, with 2 days rain accumulation up to 40-50 mms. South Gujarat, including Bharuch, will get some showers on Tuesday, with about 20 mms of rain. Lesser rains on Wednesday.

Precipitation can track into lower Sindh by Wednesday/Thursday. Karachi can expect moderate rains on Thursday/Friday. Rains amounts around 10-15 mms.

A UAC has formed over W.Bengal and adjoining Bay of Bengal waters

Mumbai:
Tuesday: Cloudy, with a few showers and bright intervals in between. Again, a heavy shower possible in the evening. rain amount 12-15 mms. average.
Wednesday/Thursday: Partly cloudy to sunny. A couple of light to medium showers will put in their "token signature". Day's high temperature will be 32c. (Sunday was 32c, Monday 31c.)


Sunday, August 07, 2011



The Myth of Global Warming. Things Everone should Know: ....Part 1.

It has started all over again ! Come Summer , and you hear it !

This so called Global Warming Fashion doesn’t seem to be fading away.

When will this hysteria stop ? When will we realize that there is no such thing as Global Warming and its totally hyped ! Its political, its made up .


But, let us remember, that Nature is gigantic, and the planet’s weather system is too huge to be disturbed and “altered” by mankind’s petty inventions. Lets get it out of our (Egoistic Mind) that we are controlling and altering this vast Global Weather System.

Alas ! We have not even understood it fully, and year in year out it is proved we are at Nature’s mercy.

Mankind’s development is too minute to alter gigantic systems like Global Monsoon and systems formed by seasonal changes.


Sure, what we change is the urban weather, We have created only urban changes, or urban warming. Congestions in major cities have altered (to some extent) the temperatures in growing cities. But in the city limits. Once out in the “open” we feel the fresh country air and cooler climes . Whither GW ?

In fact, even this urban “try” by man to alter weather fails sometimes. When confronted, we have recently seen severest cold spells in all U.S. cities last year (2010). And the coldest Christmas in London last year.


Why point to GW ?

Funny how a lack of warming is attributed to 'natural variability' but warming always seems to attributed to mankind'

This warming and cooling trend is natural, and going on (undisturbed) for years. The weather is normally doing something unusual somewhere.

Our memory of events from years ago tends to blur into the mists of time. Furthermore the global nature of today’s news media often brings to our attention stories which we would not have even known about if they had happened decades ago. I have therefore put together the record of extreme weather events , which I hope will provide a certain amount of perspective when looking at what is happening today. Events mentioned date back 80 years back, assuring that GW discussions are hyped up and exaggerated today.

July 4, 1907 : Arctic Heat Record – Hottest Place In Europe

1922 Tipping Point : Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse Will Lead To Biblical Flood

Southern Hemisphere Continues To Cool: Antarctica 20 Degrees Below Normal

Was it Global Warming then ? In 1922 ?

....part 1 of a series..to be continued.

Contributions from Climate Depot,C3 Headlines, Real Science and own compliance.



Saturday, August 06, 2011

Latest ENSO Status and Expectations:

Neutral ENSO conditions persist in the tropical Pacific.

The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the remainder of the southern winter and into spring with the chances of an El Niño developing now considered unlikely.

In fact, more models are now predicting further cooling over the coming season.

Most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued duringlate June and early July 2011 predict neutral ENSO conditions from the July-September 2011 season currently in progress, through the early part of 2012. However, a minority of models call for a re-emergence of La Nina conditions going forward, while even fewer models suggest the development of El Nino conditions. For the July-September season the probabilities for La Nina, neutral and El Nino conditions are estimated at 10%, 82% and 8%, respectively. Probabilities for La Niña rise to 25% or slightly higher from Oct-Dec into 2012.

What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward?

Here is a summary Chart of what all the models predict.

The currently near-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific imply fairly low probabilities of returning to La Niña conditions in the short term, and also only a slight possibility for El Niño development during the coming few months. The continuation of an ENSO-neutral state appears most likely for the remainder of 2011.
However, some uncertainty nonetheless remains, and one cannot rule out the possibility for re-emergence of weak La Niña or development of weak El Niño in the September to November time frame. Between those two minor possibilities, re-emergence of weak La Niña appears relatively more likely, as a pocket of weakly below normal subsurface sea temperature has developed between 110W and 140W longitude. This pocket of cooler water must be monitored carefully in the coming weeks.

The IRI's definition of El Niño conditions rests on an index of SST anomalies, averaged over the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W), exceeding the warmest 25%-ile of the historical distribution, and similarly for La Niña relative to the 25%-ile coldest conditions in the historical distribution. The NINO3.4 anomaly necessary to qualify as La Niña or El Niño conditions for the Jul-Aug-Sep and the Aug-Sep-Oct seasons are approximately (-0.50C, 0.45) and (-0.55, 0.50), respectively.


The 30-day SOI to 31 July was +10.7.

New Evidence for Flowing Water on Mars…those interested see Space News Page

Friday, August 05, 2011


The UAC system which crossed into Orissa on the 3rd Aug, now lies as a UAC at 700 mb over South-East U.P. and adjoining region. Precipitating fairly good rains in M.P. and south U.P. areas. On Friday, daytime, Bahraic recorded 42 mms. Similarly, rainfall was fairly good along the monsoon axis. Central regions of the country received good rainfall as a result. Moderate rains were seen in H.P. and Delhi regions on Thursday/Friday.
In short, good rainfall has occured north of the axis as mentioned in the previous blog.

Now, what to expect for the weekend: Sat/Sun ? Slowing Down ! The seas around the Sub-Continent have entered into a weakening MJO phase.


Saturday/Sunday:
Some heavy showers lingering in M.P.region ( more in the western region, Bhopal and Gwalior) till Sunday, due to combined effect of UAC and axis. Central Nepal will see very good rains on Saturday.Kathmandu, which saw 23 mms on Friday, would get another 25 mms on Saturday, before reducing from Sunday.
A heavy bout of rains could be expected in the NE states and W.Bengal as the eastern end of the axis moves north on Sunday.

But, as anticipated, decreasing rainfall along the Konkan and Karnataka coastline. And almost dry, to very scanty rainfall in the interior peninsula (Mah/Karnataka/T.N. and A.P.) south of 20N.
Very little rainfall of any meaningfull recording in Gujarat, and reducing rains from Friday in South Gujarat.
W.D. has moved away, so most of extreme North India and almost the entire Pakistan will be devoid of any meaningfull rains.


Monday/Tuesday:
See a dryish interior peninsual south of 20N and a little more decrease in Konkan and coastal Karnataka.
Northern regions of India and entire Pakistan would be almost dry.

Mumbai: Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy and sunny. Few passing showers in some areas. Day temperatures tending to rise on Sunday, and could be around 32c. Rain amount 10-12 mms.

Monday: Partly cloudy, again with sunny spells. Hot in the day, with a couple of regional showers. Rain amount 10 mms

Pune: Weekend: Light clouding, with sunny spells. Drizzle in some parts of Pune. Days will tend to get warmer on Monday.

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

In a follow up of the last blog (1st Aug)...

There it is ! The UAC from the Bay has determined its course, and entered inland, thru the Orissa coast. With good clouding in the eastern segment, our prediction is honoured.
Good rainfall today (Wednesday) is recorded in Vidarbh and Eastern M.P. Nagpur measuring 61 mms till today evening. Jabalpur in East M.P.saw 57 mms, and Gondia recorded 27 mms. Several stations in the region had 25-35 mms.

And, the UAC over Gujarat persists at 700 mb level.

Holding on to the forecast of some rains along the N.Konkan coast on Thursday, as the UAC moves westwards and weakens. Mumbai, you will recall, has been tipped off (Monday Blog) to get some rainfall Thursday/Friday.
The Monsoon trough should shift North on Friday. After Friday, I see the whole scene going "slow" on the rainfall front in the regions south of the axis, and additional rain north of it.

Seeing good rainfall increase in Nepal from Friday, but nothing meaningfull in Southern Pakistan.


See International Page for a detailed Report : Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe Winter Forecast 2011-2012


Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Mars..Here we Come..From Spirit to Rover...See Space News Page Today !

Monday, August 01, 2011



The probable weather scenario for the first fortnight of August.

Neutral ENSO conditions continue to prevail in the Pacific Ocean. Since mid-July most indicators of ENSO have remained close to normal. There are currently no precursors present for a La Niña or El Niño event to develop, and neutral conditions likely to persist through October 2011.


On a study of the MJO forecasts, it would be natural to decipher a lean, or supressed phase of the MJO for the sub-continent region. Studies show a weak MJO from (around) 5th August, lasting till around 20th August.

In a weak MJO period (lower above), expecting a system from our seas would be futile, and rare.

The current UAC over Gujarat, long having outlived its capacity, will show signs of waning from the 3rd/4th.

The current Bay UAC will have to decide its course of progress in the next few days. If it moves in by Tuesday/Wednesday, some heavy rainfall is possible for a day (as the UAC is not well established) in Vidarbh and adjoining South-east M.P.

But, as discussed many a times previously, in such a lean MJO phase, the monsoon axis could possibly move north of its normal position.

This could lead to good rains in the U.P. Gangatic plains, Bihar and in Nepal. Heavy rains in central Nepal and Bihar could be possible in the first half of August.

W.Ds are not really effected as such by a weak MJO, and if any W.D. inter-acts ( in the first half of August) with the north bound axis, heavy rains could be a possibility in Kashmir/H.P. Utterakhand and Northern Pakistan.

Rainfall in the central peninsula states (M.P./Gujarat/interior Mah/interior Karnataka) could get weaker, and the west coast rainfall would taper down considerably. South Interior peninsula not expected to revive meaningfully till mid-August.

Southern Pakistan rainfall can get scanty, as it would be bereft of any rain bearing systems, or trough precipitations.

Come Monday, 1st day of August, and the rains slowed down in Mumbai. Cloudy with a few showers, Monday saw 12 mms at Colaba and 5 mms at S'Cruz rain in the day, and the trend will continue into Tuesday/Wednesday. Rain amounting to around 15-20 mms/day.

Its just about possible, that there could be an nominal increase in rains on Thursday night. Say to around 30-35 mms.(Tentative).

Today, to give a forecast Friday onwards, i say a notable decrease in precipitation. Shall observe and review in a few days.

Pune, cloudy with no substantial increase in rains next few days till Thursday.

In Mumbai, July measured an average rainfall of 1285 mms between the 2 stations.Vagaries had estimated 800 mms.

Thanks for your views and analysis NT. Normal seasonal rainfall for Colaba has been reduced to 1920 mms From 2146 mms, and S'Cruz normal is 2422mms (2460 mms). July normal is 460 mms at Colaba and 553 mms for S'Cruz.

Looking at the above scenario, for Mumbai, I would expect rainfall to get a bit substantial in the 2nd fortnight of August. I could go wrong, but on the above 50-50 basis for the 2 halves of the month, I would estimate around 575-600 mms average between the 2 stations.