vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, December 30, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
click here for larger view for Wind Field around storm
Gusty winds at 30-40 kmph from a Northerly direction to hit Chennai from tonite. Heavy clouding and wind speed gradually on the increase from tonite..
Detailed traching and map will be up tonite...with latest at 19.30 pm
Report of 12.30 pm (IST) Wednesday.
As the ridge deepens, "Thane" moves due west. Moved marginally west in last 6 hrs, and is 550 kms due west of Chennai. Convection increases in the SW quadrant. Clouds at phenomenal height, with top at -85c ! Pressure at 992, but winds raging at 100 kmph. Seas getting rough.
Could strike by Friday, slightly North of Chennai, possibly at current strength.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Monday, December 26, 2011
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Major clouding is in the North of the system due to the NEM moisture flow.
A W.D. has moved into Kashmir and adjoining North Pakistan regions today.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
As per the Pakistan Met site, Nokkundi in the Sindh recorded a minimum of -5.3c ! The confusion is that some other international sites show Nokkundi minimum as 0c on the same morning (Thursday).Yet to verify the correct temperature.
And Sibbi was -1c on Thursday morning.
Karachi dipped to 7c. We had expected the port city to drop to 9c (between 22nd and 26th, as per map put up yesterday). Expected to maintain trend of 8/9c till 25th.
Kathmandu was forecasted to drop to 2c, and the reading today morning was 1.5c.
In India. Bhatinda was the lowest in the plains at 1.2c. In the hills, Leh was at a seasonal low of -16c on Thursday.
Cold conditions are expected to spread Eastwards into India, The NW regions initially, from Friday. And the NW winds (as per our yesterday's map) will gain from Friday.
Check Space News Update...
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Srinagar had freezing rain, but no snow was reported.
Also, as expected, the cold wave abets to some extent, and the lowest temperatures showed a marked rise.
As the system moves away, after the 22nd, we can expect NW winds to set in along the NW /Central and West Coast of India.
Click here for Larger Map
For the next 3/4 days (22-26th), the regions shown in the Vagaries map above would be in for cold windy days and a drop in the night temperatures.
The plains of Pakistan, right down to the Coast, will be windy (NW), and nights are expected to drop till the 26th.
Karachi, which is currently at 13c, can fall back to 10c from the 23rd/24th.
We shall monitor the system approaching the Southern T.N. coast.
Monday, December 19, 2011
Sunday, December 18, 2011
The cold penetrated thru Punjab,
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Please Check Snippets (right of page) regularly from Today..Brief one Liners will be Put up when detailed Publishing not Required.
Mumbai and Pune will be partly cloudy, mostly high clouds, next two days. The nights will be around 19c in Mumbai and 15c for Pune on Wed/Thursday. But, days will be warm, around 33c and 31c in Mumbai and Pune.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Mumbai and Pune Forecast:Not expecting a further fall in night temperatures for the next 3 nights.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Hazy and high clouds. Day will be around 32c and night will be 17c.
Thursday: clear with day temperature at 31c and night at 18c.
Pune will be clear, with day temperature at 31c and night at 12c on Tuesday/Wednesday.
U.K. Weather set to Worsen…More on Mark’Blog.
Strong winds, heavy rains to spread across
50-60MPH WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
*HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALISED FLOODING A SERIOUS SURFACE SRAY ON ROADS
BIG FREEZE SET TO STRIKE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO MINUS 10C
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Please Check Snippets (right of page) regularly from Now..Brief one Liners will be Put up when detailed Publishing not Required.
astronomical scale picture sequences,….see space news page
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Vagaries will be putting up Live Pictures of the Eclipsed Moon at 7 pm, 8 pm, and 9 pm.(IST).
The pictures will be published "on the spot" live and will be sent to us by Akshay's AKG Centre from
Be sure to see this spectacular event live on Vagaries !
Friday, December 09, 2011
Thursday, December 08, 2011
Scotland Storm from Mark’s blog.
Police are warning against all travel in the central belt in an unprecedented move as winds of more than 160mph batter
The Met Office said winds at Cairngorm
had reached up to 165mph (264km/h). Summit
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OF 75 TO 90 MPH TO BRING WIDESPREAD DISRUPTION ACROSS
Not everyday do you see a red weather warning issued for the main population belt of
'Red alert': Schools close as dangerous 100mph storms strike
Residents across parts of
An Atlantic storm is set to bring strong winds to the
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Total lunar Eclipse – December 10, 2011…see Space News Pageclick here for larger view
Sunday, December 04, 2011
Forecasted Temperatures. Clear Weather with No Rain in the any of the cities below.
Forecast for Cities:
Mon: Clear. 34c - 21c (Actual: 32 - 20)
Tue: Clear. 34c - 20c (33 - 20)
Wed: Clear. 33c - 19c.
Thu: Clear. 32c - 19c.
Mon: Clear. 32c - 15c (Actual : 33 - 15)
Tue: Clear. 32c - 15c. (33 - 16)
Wed: Clear. 30c - 16c.
Thu: Clear. 30c - 16c
Mon: Clear.shallow Fog. 25c - 13c (Actual: 30 - 11)
Tue: clear.Shallow Fog. 24c - 13c. (29 -15)
Wed: Clear. 25c -15c.
Thu: Clear. 26c - 16c.
An Easterly wave with embedded UAC is likely to bring rains along the T.N. coast by Wednesday. May be of moderate intensity.
No effective W.D. till Thursday, hence dry in the North.
Forecast post Thursday will be put up in a couple of days.
Topics From Mark’s Blog
Large portions of Scotland see or will see their first snowfall of season Sun/Mon
"I would be more concerned if the Arctic reservoir over
Friday, December 02, 2011
Mumbai/Pune weekend temperature forecast For Mumbai and Pune …see Mumbai Page
High Winds cause Massive Damage in Southern Cal..Los Angeles Times
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Last week of November anomaly map shows extremely hot conditions in N.India and Central India, and most of Pakistan.
November Heat Wave In Himachal Pradesh:
The last few days of November, a winter month for this Himalayan State, has been Hot ! In fact, its a heat wave on ! With temperatures up to 10c (almost 18F) above normal in Simla, its literally Hot in the state.
Some Places in H.P. showing the max and min temperatures with departures as on 30th November.
Simla: 23 (+10) 6 (+1)
Dharamsala: 22 (+3) 6 (-2)
Keylong: 11 (+5) 4 (+4)
Manali: 18 3
Kalpa: 20 (+8) 7 (+8)
In fact, for the regions comprising H.P, almost throughout the month, its been hot,except for a few exceptional days during the tenure of W.D. This system had brought rains and snow initially in the month, in H.P.
Otherwise, the month has been absolutely dry, as seen from these November rainfall details for Himachal.
Place, November actual rain, Normal Total, % deficient.
HP State 7.7 45.1 -83%
SHIMLA 3.5 36.3 -90%
SOLAN 0.2 51.2 -99%
KINNAUR 1.4 34.4 -96%
BILASPUR 1.3 31.8 -96%
HAMIRPUR 3.3 40.9 -92%
Adverse NE and E winds replaced the normally required W winds. Moisture from the Arabian Sea brought in a lot of moisture into the regions, creating cloudiness and "trapped" heat.
Nepal too, has similar reasons for being hot. A similar state is prevelent in Nepal. Neeraj from Kathmandu writes -"What is the reason behind the temperature hovering in the 8C-22C range, in fact today it was 10c-22c here. Today is the last day of November, I guess the temperatures (esp the min temp) should be a little below this by now.Last year,it was 3.6C-23C on the same day and the year before that it was 6.3C- 22.6C".
Kathmandu too, has been warmer than usual for the month. I would work out the average for the month this year has been in the 23c - 10c range,while the normal is 23c - 7c.In fact Kathmandu too had received rains as a result of N2.
Mumbai/Pune November Weather and weekend Forecast… Chennai and B’Lore November Diagrams ..See Mumbai Page
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
The distinguishing part is the centre, though having 35 knts winds, is relatively free of major clouding. A spiral band, 360 kms to the NW of the centre, is moving towards coastal Sindh. System is still at 998 mb with cyclonic winds of 35 knts and gusting to 45 knts.
AS-4 is set to start weakening from Wednesday. The clouds spiral rushing into coastal Sindh will produce extremely stuffy weather in Karachi tonite (Tuesday). Possiblity of light rain will make it uncomfortable. For Karachi, I do not expect the rain to persist much beyond mid day on Wednesday, though cloudy weather will linger on for another 2 days.
Another system is forming in the Southern Bay at 89E. Still in the initial stage, will discuss the developments on Wednesday.
Mumbai was the limit on Tuesday. Hot, humid and partly cloudy ! Produced the most unbearable weather conditions.
With the high hittting 36.8c, +4c above the normal, Mumbai was the hottest in Asia on Tuesday. Thankfully it is not the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere, where Tambacounda (Senegal) was at 39c.
For India, the 2nd hottest was a far 35.2c at Surat.
Hot and humid partly cloudy weather expected into Wednesday and Thursday for Mumbai, with the day hitting 35c. Night will be an unbearable 26c. Expect a few degrees drop in temperature on Friday
April normal nights are 26c for Mumbai, and the nights rise to 27c after the first week of May. The normal day for April is 33c, and 34/35c for May.
Mumbai was in the 37c - 26c range on Tuesday ! 90% humidity at Colaba on Tuesday morning and 76% in the evening ! S'Cruz was at an avg humidity of 65%.
Please notice the Sat. image showing a developing eye near the mentioned centre. Image of 10.00 am IST Tuesday. See here
Situation as at 10 am IST Tuesday, AS-4, almost at cyclone status with winds at 35 knts. Located at 15.8N and 66.8E, mid way in the Arabian Sea between Oman and India. Moved NW.
Chances of Rain for Mumbai from AS-4…See Mumbai Page
Monday, November 28, 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Mumbai will be cloudy on Monday, with light rain in some parts of the city. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with high clouds. I had mentioned that "winter" will go for a "toss" Sure enough ! Mumbai saw a low temperature of 26c on Sunday, after having 21c in the previous 2/3 nights.The High was at 36c.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
25th March Evening Let's Appreciate when the Air Quality is Good
The low, has literally "whizzed" past,and thru the central regions, and by saturday night, is already over south Rajasthan/Gujarat...