Monday, November 30, 2020


Posted Monday 30th Afternoon;

BB-14, now a depression and likely to be the Next immediate cyclone after Nivar in 2 days from 30th...Though not as strong as Nivar... !

 BB-14 To track West towards North Sri Lanka and South T.N. ...and cross land by 2nd December over these regions.
To emerge again in the Arabian Sea in a weaker strength.

BB-15 getting formation stage by 3rd around 8N...due to location, could also re emerge in the Arabian Sea.

Mumbai: Outlook for the period 1st -5th December:

With the developments taking place as explained above, and no WD in the North, we see no major change in the Mumbai weather. Slight feeling of humidity which remains in the 50%-70% range in the mentioned period of Forecast.

Sunny periods, with day warm at 33c and nights at Scruz not falling below 20c.

Last week's Temperature Variation:

Outlook for the Period 1st December-5th December:

: Also dry and warm in the day.. with the temperature around 31/32c. Night lows not going below 14c..remaining around 15-16c in the next 5 day forecast period.

Last week's variation:

Goa: partly cloudy and warm and sunny...typical weather with the range around 34-23c.

Jalgaon: Clear skies, around 31-16c  for the next 5 days.
Aurangabad: Clear and around 30-16c range.

Chennai: showers expected in Chennai on 2nd,3rd and 4th BB-14 comes closer.

Record Heat in Sydney: See World Weather News.

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Posted Saturday 28th November:

North India Details on Latest temperatures (From weather of North India)

Friday, November 27, 2020

 Posted Friday afternoon 27th November:

Bay to sprout new Low , BB-14, East of Sri Lanka at around 87E by 29th...expected to cross Southern tip of India and re-emerge in the South Arabian sea.

BB-15 to form at 95E by 2nd December..Initial track west/North west towards South/Central T.N....more later of the track

Bangalore A.P. saw a high of 20c on Thursday 26th and a Low of 17c on Friday morning with 23 mms rain.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy weekend. No large change..with day around 33 (warm) and night at 20c.

Pune : Partly cloudy with light drizzles in parts of city on weekend. Days around 30/31c and nights at 14-16c.

Goa : Partly cloudy and warm.

Thursday, November 26, 2020

 Posted at 12 midnight... 25th

The centre of the cyclone will cross the coast near Puducherry within next three hours from midnight with a wind speed of 120-130kmph gusting up to 145kmph

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

 Nivar update..posted 10pm 25th

Nivar to cross TN coast between Karaikal & Pondicherry early 26th morning. (Moving along the Southern edge of Ridge)

Wind speed estimated at 120 - 130 kmph

Rainfall till 8.30 pm Wednesday 

Puducherry 115 ms
Chennai 75 mms
Karaikal 74 mms
Cuddalore123 mms

 Nivar at 3.30 lST... With movement track

 See " Gati" write up in World Weather News Page

Wednesday Noon: 25th November;

Nivar..heading South of Chennai towards Puducherry


 Posted Wednesday morning

Nivar tracked North.. Towards Chennai  ? 

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

 Rainfall at Chennai in 15 hrs ended 23.30 IST Tuesday was 100 mms.

Chennai AP measured 106 mms till 20.30 hrs Tuesday. 

Rainfall expected ; Tuesday 24 th/Wednesday 25th/Thursday 26th:

Chennai: 30 mms/60-75 mms/ 30 mms

Puducherry: 30-40 mms/75-90 mms/30-40 mms.

Monday, November 23, 2020

 11.30 pm IST... Monday.. Minimum lightening.. Nivar

At 9.30 pm IST.. Nivar

Almost stationary at 3.30 IST monday

Posted Monday 23rd afternoon:

BB-13: Now located at 9.3N and 84.5e...about 630 kms east/South-East of a Depression.

winds speed estimated at 40-50 kmph, and pressure still estimated at 1004 mb.

MJO will support further enhancement of convective activity. With Low Vertical Wind Shear and warm seas , further strengthening is very possible, and possible formation of Cyclone is High by 24th evening


Sunday, November 22, 2020

Category 2-3 cyclone Gati (very severe cyclonic storm by IMD) now making an unprecedented landfall in Bari Region, #Somalia. This is solidly the strongest tropical cyclone to hit Somalia on JTWC, as well as IMD records (which goes back to 1891). Both show no typhoon-equivalent landfall in Somalia before.... From Vagarian Mitan (Bhubaneswar) 

Posted Sunday 22nd Afternoon 1 pm:

Cyclone "Gati" forms and moves towards the West..away from the Indian coast...

 BB-13 , is near the Indian Coast, as  Depression and tracking as shown...becoming into Deep depression before crossing South of Chennai.

BB-3 Track and Rainfall

Add caption
Chennai: Heavy showers on 24th..Going upto 100 mms on 25th. Srong gusty winds on 25th and 26th ..reaching 60-65 kmph.

Mumbai & Pune : No rain, but night getting cooler from 25 th.. Pune dropping to 13c.

Delhi NCR: Temperatures around 25 - 11c next 4 days. 

Friday, November 20, 2020

 Forecast for today 20th November and tomorrow 21st November :

Pune: Possibility of light to moderate rain/thundershowers in and around Pune city today and tomorrow. Other parts of Pune district may also get rains. 

Slight chance of drizzle for Mumbai & MMR, more possibilities in interior Raigad/Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts and along western Ghats.

Satara and Nashik districts can also get some rain/thundershowers. 

Marathwada districts of Aurangabad and those bordering Karnataka/Telangana may get light rain.

Vidarbha region of Nagpur and neighborhood districts can also get light rain/thundershowers. 

Minimum temperature will be above normal in most of interior Maharashtra. 

Low over the Arabian Sea AS-6 intensifies into a depression and moves westwards towards Somalia. 

Another low BB-14 forms in southwestern Bay of Bengal. Intensifying further as it heads towards Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. More updates on this by tomorrow.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

 Sunday/Monday WD

Snow, rains lash Kashmir for second day
Dhauladhars get season’s 1st snow

Rain will be beneficial for wheat and other crops

Pakistan: Lower Dir sees 'record' snowfall in November

Up until Saturday, three feet of snow was recorded in Mahodand and two each in Kalam, Malam Jabba and adjoining areas.

 Delhi gets light rains on 15th..( forecasted) 

Thursday, November 12, 2020


 Vagaries team wishes its readers a very Happy Diwali and New Year.

Thanking all for the faith and trust shown towards Vagaries..with the hits reading 31.52 lacs//3.52 Million.

Diwali forecast for the period from 13th Friday to 17th Tuesday:

Mumbai: The range at Scruz will be 35-21c. Colaba will see a range of 33-23c

Partly cloudy skies will be the spoilers. .After enjoying a minimal fall night temperatures to 19c, Mumbai Scruz will see a small rise again to 20-22c in the night. 

PuneAgain , partly cloudy skies will see the day/night range of around 31-16c. 

Rise in night temperatures by around  5c from current conditions of 10/11c.

Partly cloudy skies with a change in the current conditions for Interior Maharashtra . Cool effect wearing down a bit.

Goa: Range: 33-22c. partly cloudy and light rain expected on 16th , New Year day.

New Delhi: Range 27-15c.

Here also, as the skies get cloudy, we see the night chill wearing ff. But with chances of light rains on 15th and 16th. 

Chennai: Showers on daily basis. Ranging daily from 20-35 mms . some heavy in parts of city.

Kolkata: Range; 32-21c. Sunny weather throughout. 

A WD expected in J&k, Ladakh and H.P. and Utterakhand hills on 15th..precipitation expected.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Posted 10th November morning

Some minimum temperatures in Maharashtra on 10th November, 2020:-





















Mumbai Scz:19.2c



Data Source:IMD & Pvt stations

Sunday, November 08, 2020


Góa And konkan today... Warm days

BOMBAY   34.2( 0.8) 25.4( 1.8) 
SCZ            35.8( 2.0) 23.0( 1.1) 
ALIBAG     31.5(-1.3) 
RATNAGIRI 35.8( 2.3) 24.2( 1.9)
PANJIM       34.5( 1.4) 24.7( 1.9)
DHANU       35.8( 3.4) 21.8( 0.4

Thursday, November 05, 2020

 Maharashtra's coast Konkan Belt & Goa heats up on 5th November:

Coastal Cities on 5th Max and Min temperatures:

BOMBAY 33.4(-0.6) - 25.0  

SCZ 34.8( 0.6) - 22.2( 0.0) 

 ALIBAG 33.5( 0.1) - 20.9(-1.1)

RATNAGIRI 35.8( 2.0) - 22.2(-0.6)

 PANJIM 34.5( 1.3) - 22.2(-1.3) 

 DHANU 34.7( 1.7)

Posted 5th November morning

1. Fog Bow...What is Fog Bow ?

2. Subsidence and How it Can Affect Winds

Weather Knowledge Page  ..23,24

Young and enthusiastic Meteorologists, this page is a must for enhancing your meteorology knowledge...those interested please see the latest 

Some minimum temperatures in Maharashtra on 5th November, 2020:-

Gondia 12.5c

Amravati 12.8c

Nagpur 13.2c

Parbhani 14c

Jalgaon 14.2c

NDA, Pune 14.2c

Pashan,Pune 14.3c

Brahmapuri 14.5 

Nashik 14.8c

Pune 15.1c

Aurangabad 15.4c

Akola 15.5c

Solapur 15.5c

Satara 15.6c

Wardha 16c

Junnar 16.8c

Kolhapur 18.6c

Palghar 19.5c

Mumbai Scz 22.2c

Ratnagiri 22.2c

Dahanu 22.5c

Data Source:IMD

Sunday, November 01, 2020

Delhi NCR on 1st November


Tourists enjoy fresh snowfall at Lahaul Spiti

The fresh snowfall beyond Darcha on the Manali-Leh highway and the Kunzum Pass on the Sumdoh-Kaza-Gramfu highway in the past 24 hours crippled the normal life in Lahaul-Spiti.

Baralacha La received over 45 cm of snowfall, which halted traffic to Leh beyond Darcha, while Keylong and Jispa village had around 10 cm and 30 cm of snow. The 13,050-feet Rohtang Pass also received snowfall.

The Manali-Leh highway is open to traffic via the Atal Tunnel up to Darcha, the last village of Lahaul Spiti towards Leh. 

 Posted Sunday 1st November:

Early drop in Temperatures in Northern on 1st November


  21st  July afternoon post Comparative rain till 21st morning: Panji 2525 mms ( 100 ") and Ratnagiri 2572 mms ( 102") cross 100&q...