Monday, June 13, 2011

The well marked low, AS-1, has moved further NW, and remains inland, just on the Saurastra coast, but weakened. Rainfall belt has shifted to west Gujarat (Jamnagar) and adjoining Kutch.
Clouding however has spread over a greater radius.
As the system weakens, in the next 12 hrs, the clouding (not heavy rain but high clouds) will "swell" into a wider region for a day.

I feel BB1 will come to sea level off the Orissa coast by Wednesday, straught away as a 998 mb low.or maybe a well marked low. SWM progress into newer regions will depend on the track of BB1.Most likely track west.Meanwhile, it may take 2 days for the off shore trough to re-organise itself. Details later tonite.

Mumbai Forecast:

Monday: Partly sunny/cloudy with few heavy short duration showers. Rain amount about 15-20 mms.

Tuesday: Intervals of sunshine with a couple of showers in the day. Evening could see a heavy shower. Rain amount about 20 mms. Real feel will be hot due to humidity on Mon/Tues.

Wednesday: Cloudy skies with passing showers of slightly longer durations than previous days. Rain amount 25-30 mms.

Thursday*: cloudy with frequent and short spaced rains towards evening. Rain amount 35-40 mms.

*tentative. Could be revised.

3 comments:

NT said...

Rajesh your forecast for Sunday for Mumbai turned out to be accurate, right now looking outside the window of my office (at 2:00 pm) it looks like a day in May, completely cloudless and bright and sunny. Meanwhile, the UKMET and some other models seem to suggest formation of the LOW in Bay much North i.e. border of Orrisa / WB and then travel N or NW. The actual path will become clearer in the coming days. Incidentally Santacruz has recieved heavier rainfall then even Mahabaleshwar so far (as of Yesterday's readings): 20 Inches!!

NT said...

The Mumbai Met has finally taken the Mumbai Doppler radar offline and have put the 'under test' status. I never found the radar to be consistent with what was happening outside and thought there was an error on what was being displayed. Finally they have realized that and brought it off line. Hopefully once it comes back on, it should show accurate details.

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