vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather.
First thunderclap over South Mumbai at 1500 hrs !! Doppler giving no indications
Rajesh, your forecast of Thunder rains in Mumbai by afternoon / evening seem to be bang on target. It's started thundering here too in Andheri now.
Just saw the Satellite image and it shows considerable clouding in East / South East of the system now. And these clouds seem to have covered Mumbai and Kokan at this point. Is this normal? Wouldn't you see very less clouding in the East of the LOPAR / Depression, the Depressions that cross India from BOB normally have clearing weather in the East of the system.
till now only light rain and very light thunder at borivali (west). but getting darker..... 3.53pm
@Rajesh, Is this the most mysterious system u have seen. Even though now most forecast model expecting AS1 to move northward towards pakistan, UKMET forecast model expecting AS1 to move slighty eastward & linger around north konkan/south gujarat coast very close to mumbai. UKMET have been most accurate (or least inaccurate) in predicting this system. If this happens then mumbai might get total of 150 ml of rainfall in next 3 days. I could be completely wrong in my prediction as this system have been impossible to predict. But I really think AS1 will give mumbai heavy rains for next 3 days. Plz reply whether u agree or disagree with this.
@svt: The latest UKMET shows AS1 to actually cross right over Mumbai tomorrow night and then dissipate in land by 11th. It no longer shows the system lingering over N Konkan / S Gujarat. If this were to happen there will obviously by extremely heavy rains in Mumbai exceeding 150 mm that you mention.
@NT yes I saw that, exact landfall is difficult to predict. I am expecting more changes in their forecast. It could go anywhere between south gujarat to north konkan. Just saw CNN on telly, even their meteorologist think system could move towards North maharashtra or south gujarat coast. WD might have something to do with it. But it just impossible to predict with this system, we could once again prove wrong. *Nature is the boss*
@NT,emkay,svt.the clouding in of AS-1 was concentrated in the west quadrant till now.As the verticle wind shear was expected to "loosen" the clouds in the east of the system, rains were predicted along Konkan. And it happened with the clouding on either side. Expecting the system to move W/NW towards the Sindh coast, away from Gujarat.But guys, my prediction is a reduction in rain in Mumbai from tomorrow, and NT feels otherwise.So,its Nature, as emkay says. I had mentioned upto 150 mms in pockets in Konkan..should be somewhereas reports will come tomorrow..Ratnagiri has had 85 mms till evening today.updating blog tonite at 10.30 ..thanks for ur views.
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