Monday, February 28, 2011

Message received from Shiraz, Mahableshwar, today, Monday:
Thunder shower lasted one hour from 3.30 pm
Checked your Blog. My feedback was not updated
on it so far.
Shiraz.

Message received from Rafeek, Pune:
Drizzling here in Pune from 5 pm.

Our UAC somewhat precipitating as forecasted.

Mail from our reader Tyrone, from Karachi:
Thought u would find this intersting .......
"Lahore – no ordinary rain"
Agencies
Yesterday

A rare hailstorm struck Lahore at 4.45pm on Saturday, concentrating its intensity downtown and in areas around Gulberg. Hailstones the size of small strawberries soon carpeted streets and rooftops. People were
left stunned watching the freak turn of weather. At a few places, some people panicked and started giving “azans”. – Photos by Online and PPI






WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

COLDEST HIGH'S AND LOW'S OF WINTER 2010-2011

EUROPE

City High/Low and Longest period below freezing

Glasgow, Scotland: High 18, Low 7
Dec 17-24, 2010 (8 days)
Edinburgh, Scotland High 19, Low 3
Dec 17-24, 2010 (8 days)
De Bilt, Netherlands High 21, Low 12
Dec 17-24, 2010 (8 days)
Copenhagen, Denmark High 25, Low 10
Dec 13-30, 2010 (13 days)
Oslo, Norway High 7, Low -6
Dec 1-30, 2010 (30 days)
Prague, Czech Rep High 14, Low 2
Jan 27-Feb 3, 2011 (8 days)
Berlin, Germany High 19, Low 6
Dec 13-22, 2010 (10 days)
Budapest, Hungary High 19, Low 9
Dec 26, 2010-Jan 1, 2011 (7 days)
Warsaw, Poland High 12, Low 0
Feb 13-28, 2011 (16 days)
Moscow, Russia High -3, Low -16 Jan 12-
Feb 2, 2011 (22 days)
Tallinn, Estonia High 4, Low -18
Dec 8, 2010-Jan 7, 2011 (31 days)
Helsinki, Finland High -1, Low -20
Dec 1, 2010-Jan 8, 2011 (39 days)

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Continuing from Vagaries' weather narration, F4 has moved eastwards beyond Utteranchal and is weakening into Nepal on Saturday.

Saturday saw Dehra Dun (Utteranchal) having a cold day with the high at 18c, 6c below normal, with 1 mm of rain. In the state's hills, Mussoorie (AWS) had a high of 5.5c, with light rains in the daytime, while Champawat AWS could manage 9c as its day temperature.
Peaks of Garhwal, Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri, Yamunotri, Auli, Nanda Devi and some areas of Munsiyari were covered with fresh snow.

And, though on Saturday Nepal had fairly sparse rain/snow, Kathmandu manag
ed some light traces of rain on Saturday, and was just about in the vicinity, as the sat.image (courtesy Nepal Met) shows.

Onwards to F5 now. This sytem can be seen today, near Dubai and west of Pakistan. It is possible that this system will gain more moisture from the Arabian Sea en-route to the Sub-Continent, as upper air pressure conditions are favourably placed for such an eventuality.

On Pakistan by Sunday night, and good precipitation commencing from Balochistan thru Upper Sindh regions and NWFP into Punjab (Pakistan) on Sunday evening into Monday. As it moves into India on Monday/Tuesday, flow of SW moisture from the Arabian Sea continues, and will result in rains along the Sindh coast, including Karachi on Tuesday. Pockets of heavy thundershowers could be expected along the coast and in the sindh interiors due to vertical depth of the system.

Tuesday, and F5 is on India. Affecting the states of Kashmir and H.P. with snowfall again and Punjab, N.Rajasthan, Haryana and west U.P. with rains. More on F5 monitoring as the system moves into India on Monday.

Meanwhile, NW winds will sweep the plains of India from Tuesday, and 'dry out" the feeble UAC (mentioned below) forming over western Maharashtra.




Expected F4 effect on Mumbai, as the minimum drops to 14.9c (-3) at S'Cruz and 19c (-2) at Colaba. Dropping by 4c since Friday. The day's high was 31c on Friday.

Forecast: An UAC is expected to form at 925 hpa over Western Mah. areas (not Konkan). Hence, light rains can be expected on Monday covering the districts of interior Raigad, Pune, Satara, Ahmadnagar.

Mumbai Forecast;
Sunday: 25% clouding. Clouds may hamper the downward rend in the night t

Monday: 50% clouding and N winds will dominate due to the UAC in the East of Mumbai. Day will be a couple of degrees lower but the cold tint will vanish on Monday night, thanks to the clouds. And, I do not expect any precipitation in Mumbai city.emperatures from Sunday night and may rise to 21c again.

But, Panvel and Navi Mumbai areas can get some light showers.
Monday will also see rain showers in Pune and Lonavala. Mahableshwar can expect some rainfall with pleasant weather on Monday, with the temperatures probably falling to 21c in the day.

Friday, February 25, 2011


Friday's weather analysis indicates precipitation in the States of Kashmir, H.P. and Punjab, due to F4.
Friday's rain was also along the same "line of wind discontinuity" mentioned yesterday. . From Gangtok in Sikkim (7 mms) down thru Allahbad(2mms) and thru Jabalpur (12 mms) down to Bangalore (traces).

Morning's rainfall map (IMD) also shows mild rainfall along the "line"


The clouding on Friday (from NRL Page).Check the east shifting of the line.


F4,will move away eastwards. Effecting Utteranchal and western and Central regions of Nepal. Kathmandu has cooled down today to 19.5c, after yesterday's 27.5c.

This, as expected is likely to shift more towards the east and weaken.


Thanks to Kenneth Lund (via IceAge Now) for this link
"So much for that groundhog," says Kennet

Amazing animated map of Christchurch area
Shows every quake since Sept 4, one by one by one. (Wait a few seconds after it loads and you'll see what I mean.) . Click Here.

Thanks to Cam McNaughton (via Ice Age Now) for this link

F4 hangs on in Pakistan. Friday Thunderstorm in Nawabshah drops temperature from 31c to 21c in 40 minutes. Thunderstorm in Multan and Bhawalpur.Details tonite.

--via gmail. 
.




F4 active in Northern India on Thursday, as the hill states experienced snowfall at many places with heavy sleet forcing closure of Jammu-Srinagar National Highway, and snowfall on the higher reaches of Pir Panjal mountain range since Wednesday night.
Qazigund received 3 cm of snow, while Gulmarg recorded around 2 cm of snow.

Higher reaches of Himachal Pradesh witnessed snowfall at many places, including Manali and Shimla. Manali received 2 cm of fresh snow, while Shimla experienced 5 cm of snowfall on Wednesday night and the lower hills received intermittent showers, with Saloni and Kumarsain receiving 10 mm of rains.
High altitude Kinnaur and Lahaul and Spiti districts also were covered by thick white blanket.

Rain and snow also occurred at isolated places in Uttaranchal.
In Delhi, it was a pleasant day with the mercury just below the normal level at 24c in the day.

Pakistan too had its share from F4 today, with the NWFP and Northern regions of Punjab getting rains and snow in the extreme North. Dir recorded the highest of 44 mms of rain. Islamabad had 6 mms of rain with the temperature in the 20 - 6 range.

Kathmandu has again warmed up to 27.5c, very high for this time of the month. Prompts me to forecast some effect of F4 in the city on Friday/Saturday.

UAC-2 smittered some rains in S.Maharashtra with Sangli recording 3 cms and Ahmadnagar getting 1 cms. Aurangabad and Marathwada cities received light rains.

It now seems that the UAC has moved Northwards, into N. Mah region. The image put up (above) shows this development.

But, actual clouding associated with it is in the East of the system,and apparently less than yesterday.

The only obvious reason I see for the clouding, avoiding the system centre, is lack of sufficient moisture inflow, due to poor attraction by the system. And, also the wind discontinuity line shifting east.In fact, the clouding associated with this line, is
seen stretching from M.P. thru interior Mah. thru interior Karnataka into Kerala. very prominently seen in this sat. image from Dundee @ 11.30 pmIST.on Wednesday.

Forecast :
Friday: Light to medium rains all along the line of wind discontinuity right upto Kerala, as seen today. And fairly active F4, though, while moving away from Pakistan, restricted to Northern Indian regions and Western Nepal.


Saturday: Line of rainfall across India moves a bit Eastwards, and weakens. F4 weakening and concentrating on Utteranchal and western Nepal.

Sunday: Awaiting F5 !

Not Much effects on Mumbai. 25% clouding (2 OKTA) on Friday/Saturday with 31c as the high and 21c the other extreme. Cooling to some extent expected from Saturday (F4 effect).



San Francisco could see first snowfall in 35 years:
it's really possible that downtown San Francisco might see its first snowfall in more than 30 years later this week.

"If we do experience snow, you may see it in the air, but it will likely be gone before it hits the ground," Benjamin, a weather service forecaster in Monterey, said.
However, the snow could likely stick to metal surfaces up in San Francisco's Twin Peaks, as well as the Hills in neighboring Oakland, he added.

Tornado Outbreak Threatens Southern US into Tonight:
A major threat of dangerous thunderstorms, including the risk of tornadoes, today from Texas to Tennessee has AccuWeather.com meteorologists concerned this could be the first significant severe outbreak of 2011.
The area of greatest concern lies from the Arkansas-Louisiana border into northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and extreme southeastern Missouri and southwestern Kentucky late this afternoon into tonight.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011


The purported UAC-2 has advanced itself and started its formation over the
Madhya Maharashtra region on Wednesday, 23rd Feb. Its vortex is seen on the map, and the resultant line of wind discontinuity has formed light clouding from the centre of the Madhya Mah. region straight down to interior Karnataka. Thunder was evident in some areas of Solapur and Pandharpur on Wednesday evening.

Resultantly, our rain forecast is advanced, and rain/thundershowers are now expected in pockets in regions of Marathwada and Madhya Mah. from tomorrow evening itself. Maybe for a couple of days.



With a partial cloud cover on Thursday/Friday, Mumbai should not exceed 32c in the day. Nights will be a bit warmer rising to 21c.


F4 is precipitating rain/snow in its own way over the Northern states of Kashmir, H.P. and Utteranchal on Wednesday, albiet in a lesser strength. Should sweep away eastwards and diminish in a day or two, making way for F5 !

From Our Partner's Blog Today:

OYMYAKON, SIBERIA

THE COLDEST INHABITATED SETTLEMENT ON EARTH IS RUNNING 6.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY'S FIRST 21 DAYS

Past Two Nights have seen lows hit 74 below zero F (-59C)!....

Lows have been persistently below zero F (-18C) in the far eastern cities of Europe with lows falling to a cold as 20 below zero (-29C) in Helsinki. The cold has been very impressive in this part of the world the past two weeks.. Details to come shortly!...and many more details on Mark's Blog.


Flash Snippet:
F4 active and on in N.India/Pakistan today. F5 to start from 27th. February !
UAC-2 to get active over Mah. from possibly on Sunday.

Details tonite.

via gmail.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

 Due to east breeze, Mumbai high at 34.5c today till 1.30 pm reading. By early evening winds will shift to Northerly and Temperature expected to fall sharply, to 25c by 8 pm tonite.



Mumbai day temperature rises. 34c at 12.40 pm Tuesday. East wind at 9 kmph.

.
6.3 Quake Rocks Christchurch, New Zealand. Fatalities reported. Details Here.

Monday, February 21, 2011

On the International Page, Vagaries had initially put up, live temperatures of some U.S. cities.This was done as there was a severe cold wave, and getting the current readings would be interesting.

Later, on 30th january 2011, upon requests for temperatures of Indian cities, Vagaries put up a special page "Current Weather" with 3 Indian cities, and later expanded on 18th February 2011 with 6 more cities.

To cater to its International demands, "Current Weather Page", will now include latest from Kathmandu, Dubai, London, Moscow, San Fransisco and New York.


See Mumbai Page for Latest on City Weather.

Sunday Extreme Vagaries in Delhi and Mumbai:

Sunday, 20th. Feb in Delhi and Mumbai.

F3 effect on Delhi:
Rainfall: 15 mms.



Central India UAC-1 effect in Mumbai:
Wind Gusts Reaching 44 kmph in the afternoon.







Both Photo Courtesy "The Hindustan Times ".


UAC-1 in Central India is moving eastwards, rather getting pulled eastwards. This will make the advent of F4 into Northern India easier and faster.
F4 will precipitate in N.Pakistan and India from Wednesday thru Friday. Much of Kashmir, H.P., Utteranchal and NW India plains will be under medium precipitation Wednesday thru Friday, 25th Feb.

Another Upper Air system (UAC-2) is possible in Central Mah. and adjoining South M.P ,as a secondary to F4 from Wednesday. . May precipitate rains in Vidarbha and adjoining A.P.

This Week Summary Forecast: (Subject to minor variations)
Tuesday, 22nd. : Medium rain in interior Karnataka and parts of T.N.

Wednesday, 23rd
. : F4 effect Northern Pakistan. Into India, it rains/snow in Kashmir while light rains continue in interior Karnataka .

Thursday, 24th.
: F4 effective in Kashmir, H.P. and light precipitation in Punjab and Haryana. Secondary UAC-2 could form and precipitate medium rains in Vidarbha, South M.P. and interior Karnataka.

Friday, 25th.
: F4 anchored in hills now, and spreading into Western Nepal. Central India UAC-2 could weaken and gradual decrease in rains in East Mah. and adjoining regions from Friday.

Tuesday ICC World Cup Cricket match may be free of rains in Nagpur, but Friday's cricket may be interrupted by rains.
Thursday's ICC Cricket World Cup match in Delhi can be interrupted by light to medium rain.

SW winds along the U.P. and Terai regions pushing rainfall from Central India and moving into SE Nepal. Light rains expected there tomorrow (Kathmandu included). UAC less prominent over Jharkhand now


Sunday, February 20, 2011

Mumbai Weather at 1.00 pm Sunday: 28c and low humidity @27% due to stiff NW winds blowing @ 20 kmph. Clear skies deep blue skies.

At 2.30 pm, the gusts reached 44 kmph ! At 4.30 pm, still windy with N winds at 22 kmph and recent gusts at 40 kmph.

Reason mentioned and predicted in Vagaries' Mumbai Page a couple of days back.

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE

By Mark Vogan..see International Page



Today's weather events of rain/snow and winds can be compared with the last Vagaries forecast put up for the period 19th-22 Feb.

F3 has arrived into India.The high altitudes of Kashmir Valley, including the hill resorts of Gulmarg and Pahalgam, experienced a fresh spell of snowfall, while the plains including Srinagar were lashed by rains today, Saturday, 19th.Feb.and so far two inches to over one feet of fresh snow had accumulated on the ground.

Gulmarg, which had recorded nearly five feet of snow early this week, had received three inches of fresh snow till 1100 hrs, while its peripheral areas including Kangdoori, Aferwath and Khilanmarg experienced over one feet of snow.

Gulmarg was the coldest place in the valley with a low of minus 7.8 degrees Celsius
Kargil dipped to -18c today morning, while Darbuk at -26c in Ladakh continued to be the coldest place in Jammu and Kashmir.Leh recorded -10.8c on Saturday morning.

The cities on the western coast of India were wiindy today with strong N breeze sweeping the region.

The Eastern states of Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand received medium rains today in the day. Cuttack measured 4 cms of rains. Effect of the UAC (o
ver A.P./Chattisgarh today) mentioned in Vagaries 2 days ago.

Forecast Map for 20th and 21st put up .
Regions of Chattisgarh, Eastern Vidharbha and Orissa are likely to get rain/thundershowers from Sunday thru Tuesday.

Nagpur should get rain/thundershower on Sunday ,with rain possible on Monday as well.










F4 is on its way and expected to precipitate rain/snow in Pakistan from 22nd Feb. The regions affected by F4 will be Balochistan, Punjab and Norther Pakistan areas. The system will move into India on the 23rd, and precipitating rain/snow in Kashmir, H.P. and Utteranchal next 3 days.


Next forecast map for F4 will be put up on 22nd. Feb.

Mumbai had a breezy day with Colaba seeing a high of 28.6c and S'Cruz 29.6c. (Vagaries estimated 29c as today's high). The low was 19.1c at Colaba and 15.7c at S'Cruz.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Mumbai Page Updated at 1 pm:

Friday, February 18, 2011

More Indian Cities added to Current Weather Page.

Frozen Moscow Feb 2011:
15th. Feb : Max -16c....... min -23c
16th. Feb: Max -14c....... min -27c
18th Feb Max -16c........ min -27c

Thursday, February 17, 2011

40 Years on, Tracks and Marks left by astronauts and their wheel barrow on Moon still untouched ! See pics on Space Page.

Australia Cyclones Update.....see International Page.

Oklahoma is up 113 degrees from 6 days ago as Guymon reaches 82 degrees ....See more Details on Mark's Interesting Blog.


Give Your Feedback on The New Polls on Vagaries.


Record Snowfall in Himachal Pradesh:

Lahaul-Spiti has received more than 175-cm snow in first 16 days of February, breaking the earlier record of 148-cm for the month in 1998.

This means well for the 2000 glaciers in this Himalayan state. According to G B Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development's senior scientist J C Kuniyal,"Record snowfall in Himachal this year has revived more than 2,000 glaciers. It is difficult to understand the environment. As we start talking about the dry winters, record snowfall leaves stunned everyone," he said.

In Nepal, normal life in Humla district has been affected due to heavy snowfall. Several places in the district received snow up to four feet. Roadways have been blocked and regular movement of the people has been hampered due to heavy snowfall.

Also, normal life in Rukum district has been affected and were covered with snow.Due to incessant snowfall since Tuesday evening, Taksera, Ranmamaikot, Hukam, Sisne, Gotamkot, Jang and other VDCs witnessed the snowfall up to 4ft.
Jomson was coldest at -11c as the low, and 8c as the maximum temperature.

Meanwhile, Kathmandu received the highest 24 hr. rainfall ever for February. The 24 hrs ended morning of 17th.February 2011 measured 31.6 mms. This month's total as of 17th. is 48.7 mms, against a monthly normal of 17.5 mms. Meanwhile the day temperature shot up to 22.5c today, after managing to reach only 10c yesterday.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Australia Threatened again by 2 Cyclones;...updated on International Page Today.

More Indian Cities added to Current Weather Page.
Latest Weekend forecast.Mumbai Page Updated.

Shimla saw a light spell of snowfall in the evening, nearby places like Kufri and Narkanda have been experiencing moderate snowfall since morning, according to a Met official. Manali too received moderate snow.Keylong, the headquarters of Lahaul and Spiti, recorded about 26 cm of snow, while it was 4.9 cm thick in Kalpa in Kinnaur district.

Nepal is battered by F2 today. Kathmandu had day long rains and very heavily overcast skies. With 39 mms of rain during the day, the mercury could manage 10c as the high ,actually it was recorded in the morning itself, and the low was only 9.7c .

Several regions of Nepal got unprecedented precipitation. Normal life in hilly districts in mid and far western development regions has been affected due to incessant rain and snowfall for the last two days.

Flights to Jumla, Humla, Kalikot, Bajura and other districts from Nepalgunj and Surkhet have been canceled.

Snowfall hits Rukum lives as normal life in Rukum district has been affected.

Due to incessant snowfall since Tuesday evening, Taksera, Ranmamaikot, Hukam, Sisne, Gotamkot, Jang witnessed the snowfall up to 4ft.

Effect of F2 will be over in Nepal from Friday, or earliest by Thursday night. The system along with its precipitation is moving into Bhutan and the NE states . Particularly, Arunachal.

Forecast:

A UAC is forming due to wind convergance in Central India. With winds Moving anti-clockwise as is normally in a system, it will generate fairly strong Northerlies in western Mah. (Konkan included) and moderate Southerlies in East Vidharbh/ Chattisgarh on from Sunday thru Monday. Some precipitation could be expected in Orissa, Chattisgarh and East Vidharbha as a result on Sunday/Monday (20th/21st).But cloudy weather, and mainly medium alto-stratus clouding in Central India on Sun/Mon/Tues will bring warm and stuffy weather to the region.

At the same time, F3, would approach N. India via Pakistan. The precipitation effect of F3 would be restricted to Central/Northern Pakistan on Saturday and Kashmir and H.P. region of India on Sunday. The system will be fed by the moisture remaining from F2.

Since all the "action' is from Sunday thru Tuesday for India, and to make it simple, vagaries has put up a forecast map for these days. Simpler to grasp the precipitation and winds.

F4 is also due ,maybe from Tuesday in Pakistan, and then into India. Lets leave the discussion on F4 for later !


Flash Snippet: Mumbai overcast and reading 25c at 12 noon. Neeraj reports Kathmandu overcast and raining and 9c at noon. Keep tab on Mumbai, Bangalore and Delhi current temperatures on Current Weather Page.


Mumbai cloudy to overcast with light drizzle in some parts on Wednesday. currently 23c at 9.00 am. Check updated Mumbai Page also.
.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011



Vagaries' hopes of North Gujarat/Kutch rains (mentioned in blog on 11th and 13th, as the surprise factor.) was also realised with Naliya, Abdasa (Kutch) receiving 2 cms each and Lakhpat, Bachau, and Sami – 1 each. In N.Saurashtra, Dwarka measured 3 mm, Deesa 1 mm and traces in Okha.
Otherwise, the rest of the country distribution is shown in this IMD map.

Snow continued in H.P. on Tuesday, with Manali and Dalhousie getting the white mantle today.Una town recorded the maximum rainfall of 50.6 mm in the state, while it was 29 mm in Palampur and 16.8 mm in Dharamsala. Dharamsala was at a high of 8.5c today.

In Kashmir, there was a let up in the snowfall today.The night temperature in Kargil on Tuesday was -8.4c, making it the second coldest place in the state, after Shyok which froze at -23c.

Leh recorded a low of -3.8c. However, Pahalgam, which serves as the base camp for the annual Amarnath yatra, was much colder than Leh with the night temperature recorded at-5.4c.

F2 has now moved into Nepal. Several places have received rain/snow, with Dipayal getting 39 mms, and Kathmandu's guage measured 3.2 mms of rain. (Neeraj, so we were right about the pre WD heat !Vagaries assured you on the 10th.) And the day was cooler at 21.7c in the capital.

Asia Cold:
On the international front, its now Japan's turn for severe snow ! he Japan Meteorological Agency warned Monday of heavy snowfall in Tokyo and surrounding areas overnight as wintry weather is hitting the region, disrupting traffic. Part of the Tokyo metropolitan expressway was closed shortly after 9 p.m. Monday due to snow accumulation. A wintry atmospheric pressure pattern has been seen south of the main Japanese island of Honshu, and was moving northeast on Monday.

And Jim (Accuweather Expert) states: "The cold, the harshest and longest-lasting for the winter thus far, will substantially increase the demand for heating energy.
As of Monday, severe cold had spread across northern Russia, Finland and northern Scandinavia for four or five days. Temperatures have already dipped to -22c in St. Petersburg and Helsinki, Finland.
Cold this severe also reached into Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as of Monday.
In the Russian Arctic, Pechora dipped to -42c on Monday.
Farther south, the cold thus far has been less severe compared to normal, yet still significant. Moscow, for instance, has had lows between -16c and -13c".

However,on Tuesday, 15th. Feb, the coldest place, as usual, was Ojmjakon at -58c and followed by Dzalinda at -51c. Details and more on Ojmjakon temperatures on Mark's Blog.COLD REALITY
OYMYAKON, SIBERIA ENDURED A 71 BELOW ZERO LOW THIS MORNING

Latest on La-Nina: Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC),have estimated that the currently strong La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial and east Pacific could weaken quickly over the next few months but would rebound in late 2011, later this year.That calculates to a neutral condition during the SW Monsoon period . But estimates on La-Nina are difficult to make, and only recently we read about this event pulling well into 2011.

So,Vagaries is cautious, and not jumping to conclusions yet.

Very Interesting Happening ! Mark's Blog shows a list of U.S. cities which have recorded a rise of 47 dergrees c in just last 3 days.And the highest jump of 60 degrees c in 3 days !!


F2 effect !

Heavy snowfall started in Srinagar city and other parts of the Valley in the morning with inches of snow accumulating on the Srinagar city roads. There was more reports of heavy snowfall since the morning have come in from Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kargil, Drass, Banihal.
Authorities issued a medium danger avalanche warning in many parts of the Valley, including in upper reaches of Gulmarg.Fresh overnight snowfall around Jawahar tunnel and landslides at Digdole and Panthal, 134 kms from Srinagar, have resulted in closure of the 294-km-long highway
"People living in these areas are advised not to venture in steep avalanche prone slopes till 8 PM today," and in Srinagar and other towns in Kashmir, people are advised to keep clearing the snow from roof tops of their houses to avoid any causality due to roof collapse.

In H.P. tourists were delighted with fresh snow in Kufri, Narkanda, Manali, and Kalpa.

Kalpa and Sangla recorded 30 cm of snow while Narkanada and Khara patthar had20 cm of snow. Whereas Manali saw 51.4 cms of snow. Keylong recorded 45 cm of fresh snow while Killar in Pangi, Rohtang pass, Mari and Koksar recorded 70 cmto 90 cm of snow as snowfall was continuing.

The state's lower areas like Dharamsala, Shimla, Solan, Nahan, Chamba and Mandi received moderate rain.

In the plains there were light showers in Punjab, Haryana, Utteranchal and the "surprise factor" mentioned in Vagaries on the 11th.February of Rajasthan rain proved correct with showers in the N.Rajasthan today, Monday.

The low minimum temperatures today morning in N.India were:Leh -9c, Gulmarg -4c, Srinagar 0.1c, and Keylong -5c, Kalpa -1.6c.

In Pakistan, the effect was of good rainfall in the plains of Punjab and upper Sindh. On Monday morning, Rainfall ranging from 10-21 mms was reported from Sindh, and many places in the Northern regions recorded rainfall from 50-73 mms. Islamabad measured 54 mms of rain on Monday. Vagaries had forecasted rainfall in Karachi. The city got traces of rain, but Tyrone from there states there were reports of some localised showers in nearby areas.

Well, F2 has moved away from Pakistan now. Its precipitate effect will continue in India. Snow in Kashmir and showers in the Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Utteranchal and south Gujarat for Tuesday/Wednesday, and all U.P. areas on Wednesday/Thursday.. After Wednesday, F2 moves into the Eastern regions of India.

Yes, F2 forecasted precipitation happening in Nepal holds good.Rains have been recorded from the Western regions on Monday. Kathmandu shoots up to 27.5c on Monday. Pre W.D. heat ??

Forecast (made in Vagaries 3 days ago) for clouds and light rain in some areas of Mumbai on Wednesday remains.Expect some rains on Wednesday, due to the inflow from the SW in regions of S.Gujarat, including Bharuch.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Sunday Snippet:
F2 contributes with heavy rains/snow in Pakistan. Amongst the heavy falls were in mms :Murree=87, Dir=83, Saidusharif=68, Rawalakot=66, Mirkhani=57, Garidupatta=56, Parachinar=54,:
In India, rain/snow has commenced in Kashmir and H.P. Heavy snow of 10" in Gulmarg and continuing at night. Manali covered with snow and Simla gets day long rain with max. temperature at 7.6c


Sunday, February 13, 2011

F2 on Schedule ! Heavy precipitation amounts in Pakistan, Saturday thru Sunday morning. From 53 amonst the highest at Pattan, and some other stations reading around 50 mms in Balochistan, to- 31 mms at Quetta, and 25 mms in Norkundi. Sevearal palces in Balochistan and upper Sindh are getting good rains.
Karachi, with overcast skies and very strong S breeze, is waiting for its rainfall today.

F2 has moved into India, and should pick up strength today, Sunday.

The indications mentioned in previous discussions in Vagaries of clouding and light precipitation running thru Kutch thru Rajasthan into NW India is also happening. Expecting light showers in S.Rajasthan and Kutch.

Syatem moving into Nepal next Tuesday/Wednesday, and should cover the entire country in 2 days. I know I am repeating this, but Kathmandu should get about 10 mms accmulated precipitation in 2 days.

Mumbai will as indicated on Friday get the clouds over its skies from Tuesday night/Wednesday, with some very light precipitation in some areas.

Not much precipitation expected in the South till Wednesday,and till then, some monitoring of an UAC will be needed.

Akshay, I think the days are high today, but will drop to some extent,in Central regions including Nagpur from Monday/Tuesday, due to W.D. effect.

Friday, February 11, 2011


TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

ICING ON THE CAKE OF THE 2011 SOUTHERN PLAINS & HEARTLAND COLDWAVE
STATE OF OKLAHOMA STRIKES NEW DEPTHS OF COLD WITH -31F AT NOWATA (MESONET) AND -28F AT BARTLESVILLE....
check more of Mark's stories on International Page today !!

Sub-Continent:
True to estimates, Pakistan's Balochistan and upper Sindh regions have started recieving precipitation today, Friday 11th. feb. F2 has arrived in the Sub-Continent !
Pakistan's Northern regions can expect good snows on Friday night thru Saturday. Punjab (Pakistan) can expect some heavy showers measuring up to 40-50 mms in a day.
Upper Sindh, has already received rains on Friday and will continue to get more thru Saturday. Karachi can expect some rain on Sunday.

F2 will be moving into India on Saturday. Wait an expect heavy snow in Kashmir and H.P. and rains on Punjab and Haryana on Saturday evening/Sun.

The system will have an UAC trough dipping south from Central Pakistan almost into Kutch region on Mon/Tuesday.Hence, Vagaries estimates cloudy conditions and some light rain wll be the surprise factor for Rajasthan and Kutch on Mon/Tue.

And from Wednesday, the rain belt pushes into U.P. and Nepal.

Cold Northerly winds over the plains of NW India from Tuesday.

Partly cloudy weather for Mumbai on Wednesday/Thursday. A few degrees drop in temeprature later. Vagaries' detailed forecast on Mumbai page.

Thursday, February 10, 2011


Pics of recent rains from Karachi sent by Tyrone on Inter active Page

Mumbai Page and International Page Updated.

Vagaries Forecast Page Renewed.


The minimum temperatures map of India show the "Blues" and the "Greens" having slipped southwads as discussed earlier. On comparison of today's map and the one put up on the 8th, we can see the cold nudging down.
But, things will change again from Friday. Night temperatures from Punjab to Mah. and all over the NW and central regions will start rising.

The South India cold wave mentioned on the 8th. persists as on Thursday. The Karnataka and adjoining A.P. areas are in the grip of some severe cold, as comparitive temperatures have dropped considerably, to 9c below normal in places.The coldest palce in the South was Chamrajnagar, dipping to 7c !Ooty in the hills was at 6c.

In Tamil Nadu, Nagapattinam, Tirruchapalli and Salem were 4c below normal, with Salem recording 16c.

In Karnataka, Mysore reached 10c ! That, according to my (not so updated) records turns out to be the lowest ever for any time for Mysore. My records show the previous ever lowest at 10.6c on December 13th. 1945. Chintamani recorded 8c and Medikeri saw 9c (6c below normal) and Belgam 10c.

A.P. cold was he severest in terms of below normality. Anantpur with 10c was 9c below the normal ! This also becomes the lowest ever for Anantpur, the previous low on 2 December 1970 being 11.1c. Tirupathy A.P. dipped to 12c which was 8c below normal. Both these qualify for a severe cold wave status as per IMD terms. Nadigama was 13c, again 6c below normal.

F2 is now moving eastwards, and has started its freezing precipitation over Balochistan region of Pakistan on Thursday. Dal bandin has measured 6 mms and Kalat in the region is getting ice and rain since the evening of Thursday.Nokkundi did not rise above 15c today, with a dust storm in the afternoon.

Checking the satellite image, one can observe the W.D. cloudiness in the region. And following the precipitation accumulation map provided as a link on the right side of the Home page, it is convienent to follow and chase the precipitation of F2. But its maitaining the estimate of time chalked out by Vagaries :)

Rainfall will also be recorded in upper Sindh with areas on the Western coastline getting some rains too. Karachi, should get showers/thundershowers on Sat/Sun.

And this system should be over NW India by Friday. Friday/Saturday and Sunday will see rain/snow over Kashmir, H.P. and rains in the plains of Punjab, Haryana and West U.P. UTH shows the possibilities of rainfall over the Northern half of Rajasthan. Simple Map on Vagaries Forecast Page.

Precipitation coverage of Western Nepal and Central regions of Nepal from Monday thru Wednesday.Though the rains skipped Kathmandu in the F1 tenure, seems F2 will not let the city down on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Australia’s Woes explained by Mark..and record Oklahoma Snowfall..All on International Page Today.


F1 has disappeared as anticipitated. Its moving away has resulted in N winds sweeping the land areas of most of the sub-continent plains.

The system (F1) vanished fast with the associated low fizzling out, without any meaninfull effect in Nepal. Few places in Western Nepal, like Dadeldhura which received 15 mms and Jumla in the hills got 4.6 mms. Kathmandu was devoid of rain, in fact the day temperature went up to 26.7c.

N winds will cool down the plains region of Pakistan further next 2 days. A drop of 2/3c can be expected from todays minimums. Karachi has dropped to 11c on tuesday morning, with another 2c drop expected.Lwest in Sindh was 4c at Lasbella.

Cooler winds sweeping the plains of India have penetrated deep down into South India, and the entire South region is seeing below normal temperatures at night (map showing blue and purple in south In
dia).
In fact we see a cold wave in the North Karnataka and adjoining A.P. (purple) with the nights going down by 7c below the normal, at Belgaum, where the thermometer dipped to 9c. Several places were 5-7c below, qualifying for a moderate cold wave.
Some City temperatures and their departure from normal from N.Karnataka and adjoining A.P.region.

Anantapur 13 (-5)
Arogyavaram 12 (-4)
BELGAUM AP 09
Bijapur 12
Chintamani 11
Gulbarga 13
Kurnool 17 (-2)
Medikeri 10
Nandyal 15 (-4)
Tirupathi AP 15 (-4)

Refering to the colour code of this IMD map, we should now see the blues and dark greens sliding Southwards from Tuesday night, for the next 3 nights.
Then, from Friday, 11th. Feb, things change again with F2 coming.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Mumbai page updated. Current Mahableshwar details on Page.

International Page Updated with reproduction of “Weather Talk” by Our Partner, Mark Vogan..and more from the Blog…a permanent link on Home Page of vagaries.


In continuation from the morning snippet...the constant moisture feed from the SW to the anchored W.D.(F1) has resulted in an increase in rain/snow in Kashmir, and more so on H.P.

There is an avalanche threat over Lahaul and Pangi Valleys in H.P. as intermittent heavy snowfall has fallen on Monday.
Keylong, recorded over 50cm of fresh snow and snowfall was continuing. Heavy snowfall was continuing in the high altitudetribal areas, mountain passes.

The ski slopes at Solang nallah are experiencing fresh snow, while Manali had another spell of moderate snowfall on Monday.

Shimla and other mid-hills were lashed by a severe thunderstorm accompanied by intermittent heavy rains.
Thunderstorm blew off roofs of Kachha houses, boards and hoardings at some places and uprooted trees. Strong icy winds swept Shimla.
Tourist resort Manali received 36 mm of rains, followedby Saloni 33 mm, Seobagh and Tissa 17 mm each.

In Kashmir,heavy rain occurred in the plains of the Valley while the higher reaches saw snowfall. One to five feet of snowfall was recorded in Kargil town of Ladakh region. Srinagar had some mid snow in the late afternoon Monday. Due to lack of reporting, or late reporting, Vagaries missed out publishing on some heavy rainfall as on Monday morning in Banihal 12cms and Quasigund 10 cms (Both Kashmir).

New Delhi witnessed thunderstorm at around 9 pm on Monday night, dropping the temperature from 24c to 16c. Nearby areas like Meerut, Rohtak and Gurgaon are also witnessing thunderstorm currently, at 10 pm Monday.


The W.D (F1) is now moving away fast towards the East. It has precipitated very heavy amounts in Pakistan en route, and now having moved away, cold conditions could be expected.

But soon, another W.D.(F2) is to bring rains to Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab and the Northern areas from Friday, 11th. Feb. F2 will have its impact on India from Saturday, as per the movement schedule and speed monitored on Monday.

W.D.(F1) is now moving into Nepal, specially the Western and Central areas to be affected. Kathmandu, which again shot up to 26.5c, should be cloudy with some light rain on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Hence, Wednesday and Thursday shoulds be dry and cold in Pakistan, Nepal, and with only the NE region of India getting precipitation. South is expected to be dry.

Flash Snippet:
Strong SW winds of 22-25 kmph blowing over Rajasthan/Kutch and NW India today. Moderate SW winds upto 18 kmph over Gujarat. Strengthening the W.D. with Arabian Sea moisture.
W.D. shortlived, as E movement of low from the region, will suddenly turn the winds Northerly over NW/ Central India within 24-36 hrs, and bring cooler weather.


.
The W.D., in all its glory and deep clouded strength is hanging around the Kashmir/H.P. and N.Pakistan areas since the last 4 days. Daily weather observers watching the satellite images have been seeing the dense clouding covering the crown of the Sub-Continent, with the "hair flying clouds" to the East ! Ok, this was expected, and we had discussed this in Vagaries that the W.D. would linger on till Tuesday, that is for 5 days at least, due to an anchoring low over the region.

BUT, where is the precipitation from this system? Looks huge and seems it could have rained off the countryside. But what we actually have got is a few mms of rain. Since the last 2/3 days its been just 4 mms cumulative in Srinagar, and the heaviest was in Quasigund with about 30 mms of accumulated rains since Friday. Some very isolated pockets on the higher reaches with 30-35 mms in 4 days. Otherwise just traces.

Some thunder rains in Punjab on Monday morning, but with very little measured rainfall till 8.30 am Monday.
Amritsar, Jullundur, Kapurthala and Katra in Jammu heard thunder, but saw less than 6 mms of rain overnite (Amritsar measured 6 mms). Dehra Dun is experiancing very light drizzle since early morning Monday.

Good CAPE and lifted index fails to produce equivaleny precipitation, till Monday morning, at leaast ! That's puzzling ! That's the Vagaries of the Weather!
So, we are waiting, in turn, for the post W,D, cold winds to sweep the plains of the Sub-Continent.
Let us wait, and see what Monday brings. Report will follow tonite.

Sunday, February 06, 2011

Largest departure from a normal high temperature..Update on International Page…

AFTERMATH OF COLDEST SPELL IN 30 YRS...Details of the Mexico cold Wave on Arturo's Blog..kindly written on special request from Vagaries.

Neeraj reports from Kathmandu: "I think a record has been broken in Kathmandu. yesterday's (Friday's) high was 26.5 celcius, which is quite unprecedented. Previous Feb Record high was i think 25"

That is a bit high, considering the fact that the normal for this day, 4th. Feb, is 21c.

Well, on checking, I think the Kathmandu record for February is 27c, on a much later date, Feb 26th. 2006. As far as my record search shows, this is the Feb high.

But yesterday's reading could be an all time high for this day,4th. Feb, the previous high for the day being 23c.


Friday, February 04, 2011

Mumbai Page Updated..

GROUNDHOG DAY STORM 2011, VIDEO'S CAPTURED!....and More Details on the U.S. Snow Storm, U.K. Weather and More From Our Partner’s Blog on the International Page….Terrific Coverage by Mark !

Several places in Pakistan received rains/snow,ranging from 32 mms in Dir and 18 mms in quetta to traces in Rawalpindi.Nokkundi measured 9 mms.

In India, Kashmir region got rain and snow in varied measure. Gulmarg had snow, while Srinagar was lashed by a thunderstorm at 2.30 pm on Friday.
Places in Punjab had traces of rainfall.

As mentioned, the W.D. will stay put, and precipitation will continue in Kashmir, H.P. and utteranchal in varied measures. Punjab, Haryana will get light rains with cloudy weather in delhi.
Precipitation will slide into Nepal from Monday, as per schedule .

In the South, 91B is lingering around the East coast of Sri Lanka at 7.5N and 83E. Expected to move W-SW and fade away.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi Landfall - 3rd Feb



Feb 1 2011 Blizzard Rolls Across U.S. NOAA



Historic Winter Storm Moves Across the U.S. Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011

Thursday, February 03, 2011


The low pressure off the Sri Lanka coast, 91B, is now at 7.8N and 82E, just on the eastern Coast of the island.
Most of the Sri Lanka's Eastern Coast and Central areas are getting light to medium rains today, Thursday. A heavy rainfall area is approaching Batticola as seen in the image (courtesy WunderMap), and could commence by tonite. Local flooding possible.
System will move South-westwards, and fizzle out in the next 48 hrs.
Little impact of light rains, to medium in pockets, on the Southernmost tip of the T.N. coast. Windy for a day in the region on Friday, though winds will not exceed 15 kts.

The on-coming W.D. has precipitated rains/snow in Pakistan on Thursday. Prominent rainfall and snow figures for the day were: Chitral 15 mms, Nokkundi (Sindh) 11 mms and several stations between 2 -7 mms. Still feel that the odd rainfall may pop up along the Sindh coast on Friday.
Nepal forecast is maitined. Rains/snow from Monday in the west and on Tuesday in Kathmandu.

Moving into India, and showering light flakes in Kashmir and H.P.on Thursday, the precipitation areas will gradually spread as mentioned yesterday.(For todays precipitation check rain accumulation image in the links).
Remember, the system is expected to anchor in the region for 5 days, showering rain and snow. Hence snow accumulation possible in Kashmir and H.P.

Resultantly, temperatures will fall next week in the India/Pakistan region.

Unimanigable and unprecedented rise in the city temperature !

Mumbai Colaba jumps even higher on Thursday !Colaba weather station in South Mumbai recorded 36.7c on Thursday.That's 8c above the normal. Equivalent to Heat Wave conditions !

And, became the hottest place in Asia on the 3rd. of February !!


Yasi still remains a Cat. 1 cyclone as it moves across the North Queensland interior. Convection is weak around the system and cloud top temperatures have warmed since Yasi crossed the coast.

Yasi is expected to maintain a W-SW track as it moves towards Central Australia over the next couple of days. Although the cyclone is rapidly
weakening over land, strong and gusty conditions continue.
The current core pressure is still low at 980 mb and the winds at a strong 90 kmph and gusts at a violent 130 kmph.

Rainfall figures are coming in, but Cairns has received 155 mms in the 7 hrs ended 4 pm on Wednesday and South Johnstone got 113 mms in the 7 hrs.

Wednesday, February 02, 2011

See Mumbai Page Updated –Sharp Contrast, High Temperature.


Massive Giant Storms of the U.S. and Yasi magnitude draws major attention of meteorologists, but some minor happenings are on around the Indian Sub-Continent:

Southern Region:
91B is currently situated at 5.9N and 83.4E. Wind speed just about 15 kts.and pressure at 1008mb, its just about qualifies as a well marked low. Being embedded in the E. wave, we should presume it to travel east and cross the Sri Lanka coast by tomorrow.Sri Lanka east coast can expect heavy rains due to this system, and some "spill over" on the South T.N. coast. Rainfall into T.N. will not be really heavy, just about as indicated in Vagaries forecast map.

Northern region:
Firstly I reproduce the blog of 31st. Jan ..so that a continuity is maintained and references are easier..
"Approaching W.D. will precipitate rains in Dubai from Tuesday evening thru Thursday. Cooler temperatures in Dubai on 2/3 Feb due to overcast conditions and rains.
Rain/snow spreading to Western Pakistan (Balochistan) and Central regions on Wednesday/ Thursday. Effective rainfall could be possible in Central Sindh. UTH maps indicate scattered rainshowers also possible along Sindh
coast on Thursday.
W.D. will be in force in to N.India from Thursday 3rd. Feb."

....The anticipated W.D. is now over Pakistan, where precipitation should have commenced from Wednesday night in the Northern, NWFP and Balochistan areas. Overall, these regions will get good rains/snow Thursday thru Saturday, with Upper Sindh areas getting the odd thundershower on Thursday/ Friday. Sukur and Jacobabad might see these showers.

Actually, on Thursday, the W.D. low is centred over Pakistan's Punjab region, with the precipitation belt stretching from Dubai NE thru Balochistan, Punjab (Pakistan) into Northern Pakistan and North India.

Dubai has received rains today, Wednesday from this system. Strong winds raised sand an
d dust, and showers lashed the city between 6pm and 7 pm. A reader has put up this pic today taken from her car.

Moving into India from Thursday, states of Kashmir and H.P. will receive heavy snowfall onThursday thru Monday, and disruption likely in the 2 states due to snow accumulation.The system is expected to persisit due to trough in the upper air stabilising for a few days over the region. Rains/snow in the Northern regions of India will hang on till Monday, after which it will penetrate into Utteranchal hills, U.P. plains and western Nepal.

The plains of Punjab and Haryana will get thundershowers, with the odd one popping up in N.Rajasthan.

Nepal areas will start getting the benfits of this system from Sunday. Kathmandu should get the rainfall on Monday, 7th.( am I attempting an extra long range forecast??)

Cold conditions will re-establish over India and Pakistan from this weekend.