Friday, June 03, 2011

@Vishal, Ron, svt, nt:

The pre monsoon showers in Mumbai were convective, and due to off shore trough. I mentioned , Nothing to do with AS-1.
As far as the system AS-1 goes, many models show it deepening, and moving west or NW or even North. Some models show otherwise.

I maintain my thinking that AS-1 will now move NW, from present location, and weaken off BEFORE hitting any landmass. In short, no major effect on land.

SWM will move up, due to the off shore trough prevailing, which will stretch from Konkan to Kerala.
Mumbai will continue to get "moderate" rains till Sun/Mon.
Vagaries shall advance SWM into Goa by Sat/Sun, (will wait for perfect OLR), and then into Mumbai.

SWM would move upto 20N, and then stagger for a few days due to the "mess" created by M4.
Pressure in the North today is 1004 ! Where is the gradient ??

These are my views, and things could happen either way..as many international models voice different opinions.

--
Regards,

Rajesh.

10 comments:

emkay said...

reports from North Kerala - incessant heavy rains. seems they will be fed up monsoon quickly

Vishal said...

Rajesh
Just a query though. Why your date of monsoon confirmation in delayed by a day or 2? IMD has already declared monsoon in GOA where as your advance is expected on Sat/Sun. Just aquery and by all means I follow your dates with more conviction.

Ron said...

so 20N means it will stop somewhere near mumbai then??or am i mistaken???So when will monsoon arrive in mumbai then??Any dates u can give...maybe 3 more days??

Ron said...

also another question is y is BOB so quiet??Is something wrong??

rajesh said...

@emkay.Rain intensity should decrease in Kerala tom.
@Vishal.for Goa, i have given my reason, waiting for OLR to fall in line. Always explained before advancing SWM the reason. Be it SW winds, OLR or the 200 jet streams. Following IMD norms. Have explained it that i am following IMD norms of advance.
@ron. Mumbai is 19N. I think SWM will go till Dahanu.
Bay is quietthis year ..no doubt. Several reasons, W.D.s, trough moving away (see last MW). Few more reasons, will elaborate on vagaries.

emkay said...

So IMD advances SWM tto veeengurrla
Thai Met map shows offfshore LP north of Mumbai

NT said...

-70 degrees cloud tops observed over
Mumbai around 10:30 pm. Such cloud tops are usually associated with storm systems.

svt said...

Cola & imd gfs predicting almost 40 ml rain in next 24 hrs for mumbai. Imd fortnightly forecast (which is probably the only good thing about IMD) also confirmed your point about halt in monsoon surge northward after 3-4 days but expecting 'good rains' till 17th june along west coast & northeastern states.

emkay said...

Latest Thai map (1000 IST) shows the LP completely gone !! ECMWF also has removed the LP. Invest 98A still exists in US Navy weather. All very confusing at this moment.
Waiting for our weather guru to throw further light on the paradox

svt said...

I think out of the projected 40 ml we might have got around 15 ml last night. And imd in their fortnightly forecast last night talked about UAC at mid-tropospheric level off karnataka coast moving north. In their morning update uac was at east central arabian sea off konkan coast. They avoided using word low since yesterday only used uac.