Saturday, January 30, 2016

We Saw record colds and "New Regions" Snow in our previous Article ...Now more news...First Time Snow ever in Kuwait ...and more freezing news on International Page.


Read more Articles on the Author's Page


WEST COAST OF INDIA .. 30 JAN 2016 

Refer Map 1 below- 
Afternoon (max) temperatures along the west coast show an increasing gradient from northern to southern part of the coast ..
Dwarka (Gujarat) .. 26 c ,  Mangalore ..37.8 c   

Refer Map 2 (Mumbai region micro-climate) below- 
Afternoon(max) temperatures in the Mumbai region show an increasing trend from the coast towards the interior.. from 27.7 c  to 37 c
Night (min) temperatures in the Mumbai region show a decreasing trend from the coast towards the interior.. from 20 c  to 15 c

Mumbai Coast (Colaba) records lowest afternoon(max) temp in the state (Maharashtra) @ 27.7 c ..
Lower than Mahabaleshwar in the ghats (1350 mtrs above mean sea level) @ 31.2 c 

Map 1 -



Map 2 (Mumbai region micro-climate) -

We Saw record colds and "New Regions" Snow in our previous Article ...Now more news...First Time Snow ever in Kuwait ...and more freezing news on International Page.

Read more Articles on the Author's Page




Friday, January 29, 2016

On Friday, 29th, Days were warmer in Maharashtra as expected. Mumbai Scruz & Pune were 33c, while Ratnagiri was hottest in the State at 36.6c.
Temperatures should drop again in State from 1st February. ( Mumbai included).

Western Disturbance J-4 active over North India on 29th..date expected...with 16 mms of rain in Amritsar on Friday (till 8.30 pm IST) and day's high at 14.9c. Several places in Punjab, Kashmir and HP had precipitation.
Yesterday, J-4 was active in Pakistan, with Quetta recording 47 mms and many places in Balochistan and Punjab and Northern regions recording between 2 - 20 mms.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

We have probably reached the peak of the 2015–2016 El Niño.

Currently, strong El Niño persists
According to researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, water temperatures in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific—an area that is usually the focal point of such events—broke a record in December 2015. Sea surface temperatures averaged 2.38° Celsius above the norm, surpassing December 1997, which was 2.24°C above normal.For October through December 2015, the three-month temperature average for the Niño3.4 region was equal to the record high from the same months in 1997.


Climate models suggest El Niño will decay over the coming months, with a likely return to neutral conditions in the second quarter of 2016.Warmer-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean should start to cool off and shift westward.
Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña states are about equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome. 
But will the ocean respond in 2016 the way it did in 1998 and 1983? There are no guarantees.

However, recent tropical cyclone activity in the central tropical Pacific has produced strong westerly winds along the equator which may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño. Such short-term re-intensification of El Niño has happened before. For example, 1997–98 saw a re-strengthening of El Niño conditions in early 1998, before the event eventually decayed. 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped over the past two weeks. The 30-day SOI value to 17 January was −16.3. 
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Vagaries' very early estimates see a ENSO neutral condition in the April/May/June  period. On this schedule, We may see a sluggish start to our South West Monsoon in June. As La Nina could develop, Monsoon can recover after mid July and possible extend into October 2016. These are very early presumed estimates, depending on the developments.

The maps below show conditions in the middle of each of the past 13 months as El Niño has developed. 



Image of Sea Surface Heights: 

The measurements come from the altimeter on the Jason-2 satellite and show averaged sea surface height anomalies. Shades of red indicate where the ocean stood higher than the normal sea level; warmer water expands to fill more volume. Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average (water contraction). Normal sea-level conditions appear in white.

 “It has been another ‘event of the century’ much like the one we just had in 97–98. The question is: how quickly will we flip into La Niña?”

Excerpts from NASA Earth Observatory and Australian Bur of Met.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Series on Atmospheres of the Planets of our Solar System...Part ( C)..Mercury's Atmosphere..( Courtesy Universe Today)...See Space News Page

Posted Tuesday Night:
Western Disturbance J-4, precipitates over Pakistan ( Sindh , Punjab and Northern regions) on 28th January. 
J-4 moves East into India on 29th and 30th with rains in Punjab, Haryana and rain and snow in Hill States of Kashmir, HP.

1. Temperatures rise in West, North, North-West and Central India from Thursday. Likely to drop again from 1st February.

2.Fog conditions ease in the North.

3.Maharashtra, Including Mumbai, Gujarat and M.P. see an easing in the cold wave from Thursday. Next few days till 1st February will see rising day and Night temperatures. Cooler weather again in Maharashtra, including Mumbai, from 1st February.

Severe Cold Wave in East Asia, 

South Korea...Seoul sees -18c..2nd Largest Airport, Jeju, paralysed...

Japanese tropical Island Amami sees snow after 115 years and Tokyo gets heavy snow....

Vietnam sees Freezing in Northern Areas and Low temps...
China freezes as Beijing drops to -16c and snow in Guangzhou after 1949...

Rare snow on Taiwan Island as Taipei touches 4c...and 
Thailand Northern region shivers in 8-10c..
Read here and here

Monday, January 25, 2016




The Results of the 1st Vagaries Photography Contest is out....Vagaries thanks and congratulates all the participants. 
All entries were excellent, and it was tough for the Panel to even choose the 5 put up for voting..Voters pick was
 

# Congratulations to the Finalists:
1. Abhijit Modak (Badlapur)
2. Puneet Bangera (Dombivali)
3. Akshay Deoras (Nagpur).

Winners...Await next Announcement  !

See  all entries here...

and see with names in collage on Vagaries Photography Contest Page

MUMBAI REGION DOES IT AGAIN

MUMBAI REGION GETS COOLER THAN MAHABALESHWAR AND PUNE 

26 Jan 2016 ..INDIA. .(past 24 hrs .. MAX/MIN temp in c ) 

Delhi :  21 / 07

Maharashtra -
Mumbai region- SCZ : 29 / 13 ,Palghar :27/ 09 , Badlapur : 30 / 12 (Vagarian Abhijit's private reading) , Vagaries Club (by the sea) : 27 / 18

Dahanu : 27 / 14 , Nashik : 32 / 08 , Nagpur : 31 / 11 , Pune : 33 /11 , Aurangabad : 32 / 13 , Mahabaleshwar : 28 / 14

Goa-
Panji(by the sea) : 32 / 20 , Pedne/Kankon : 32  /16 , Mhapsa : 32  / 18 , Valpoi : 34 / 17

Gujarat -
Rajkot : 28 / 13 ,Surat : 30 / 11, Amreli : 31 / 12 , Gandhinagar : 29 / 07 , Ahmadabad: 29 / 08

Tamilnadu , Telangana , Andhra , Karnataka-
Chennai : 31 /21 , Coimbatore : 31 / 22 , Hosur : 29 / 18 , Ooty : 20 / 09, Hyderabad : 32 / 19 , Anantapur : 35 / 20 ,  Bengaluru : 29 / 19 , Dharwad : 31 / 15

Orissa and West Bengal -
Kolkata : 24 / 10 , Bhubaneswar : 30 /15 , Phulbani : 26 / 06 ,  Sambalpur : 27 / 10

Rajasthan , MP,UP and Chattisgarh -
Udaipur : 27 / 06 , Jaipur : 25 / 10 ,Jaisalmer  : 25 / 06 , Pilani :22 / 04 , Indore : 28 / 11 ,  Jabalpur  : 26 / 08 , Bhopal : 28 / 12 , Jhansi : 26 / 09 , Lucknow : 23 / 06 , Meerut  : 18 / 05 ,  Raipur : 28 / 14

Punjab , Jammu Kashmir -
Amritsar : 17 / 03 , Jammu : 19 /05 , Srinagar : 10 / 01 , Leh : 03 / -10

Kerala -
Kannur : 37 / 25 , Ambalavayal : 29 / 18


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Almost a month back during Christmas 2015 , Eastern US was having record nearing warmth and western US was cold .. Today (25 Jan 2016) it's almost the opposite with Eastern US colder than western US  (see the chart below) -


EASTERN US is cold after the storm .. 25 JAN 2016



U.S. East Coast Lows...23rd Jan 2015
NEW JERSEY AFTER THE STORM ON SUNDAY 24 JAN 2016-

Friday, January 22, 2016

Cold Grips Northern India..See detail temps on Vagaries North

The coldest winter temperature on Earth, this time of the year (January) is recorded in northern Siberia ( Asian region of Russia) .. Temp range from - 50 c to -70 c .. It's a deep freeze.. 
But it's not windy in Siberia.. General calm prevails with deep freezing temperatures..

Image result for mountain cartoon
So, are our Himalayas not the coldest on Earth, this time of the year (January)?

The mighty Himalayan peaks(more than 7000 metres above mean sea level) record temperatures of -40 c to -50 c this time of the year (January).. Though relatively less colder than Siberia and arctic Canada , winds on the mighty Himalayan peaks may reach speeds of 150 kmph ..Alongwith temp of -50 c , they can cause wind chills of -90 (will cause immediate frostbite on exposure) ..These wind chills of the mighty Himalayan peaks are the lowest wind chills recorded on Earth during north hemisphere winters (January)


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GUJARAT GETS COLD AND DRY

LOWEST MIN TEMP in gujarat : BILODARA (KHEDA DISTRICT) @ 6.4 C / MAX TEMP 25.1 C 

Meanwhile at Maharashtra - LOWEST min temp : Shirdi @ 4.1 c / max temp 24 c 


Top Five 24hrs Rainfall in India in 2016
=================
Mettupalayam, Tamil Nadu - 220 mm on 22.01.2016
Nancowry, Nicobar Islands - 135 mm on 17.01.2016
Puri, Odisha - 118 mm on 21.01.2016
Harve, Karnataka - 64 mm on 22.01.2016
Kavaratti, Lakshwadeep Islands - 60 mm 20.01.2016...From PJ

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Second in our series after Earth..
Venus' Atmosphere...How does the atmosphere of the Hottest Planet ( 462c) in our Solar System compare with ours ...Venus being our Neighbour...On Space News Page

After the coldest day in the plains with a maximum at 10.6c on Wednesday 20th, Amritsar may see a low of 2/3c on Thursday morning. In fact Punjab (India & Pak) will see very cold conditions on Wed night recording temperatures around 1-3c in many places. Thick fog on Thursday in both Punjabs. 
Delhi NCR may record 2-4c on Thursday morning...

On Wednesday between 8.30 am -2.30 pm, Puri (Odisha) measured 117 mms of torrential rains.

(SCROLL DOWN FOR INDIA MAP)
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WEST MAHARASHTRA (INCLUDING MUMBAI) GETS COLD AND DRY .. 20 JAN 2016 

MUMBAI SCZ : 28.4 c(max) / 12.6 c (min) 

BADLAPUR : 27.1  c(max)  / 9.6 c (min) .. [Vagarian Abhijit's private reading]

COLDEST minimum temp IN MAHARASHTRA STATE : NASHIK min @ 5.8 c / max @ 26 c 

MAHARASHTRA MAP ..20 JAN 2016 (MAX/MIN TEMP IN C)
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INDIA ..20 JAN 2016 (MAX/MIN TEMP IN C)

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Posted Tuesday Night:

Cold days in M.P. Day Temps on Tuesday: Guna 15.2c,  Khajuraho 15.8c, Satna and Sagar 16.1c, Bhopal 18.7c.
Light rains in Jharkhand.

Rain regions withdraw from M.P. on Wednesday, moving East into W.Bengal, Odisha and NE States.
A.P. and interior Karnataka may get showers on Wednesday. Cool day in Bangalore at around 23/24c.
Kolkata can expect showers on Wednesday..around 15-20 mms expected and around 25c in the day.

Due to inflow of moisture (to the UAC over Central India), rains occurred in Karnataka and Telengana as expected. Light rains and cold day in Hyderabad. Around 22c.

An extra flow of moisture towards the periphery of the Upper trough, brought unexpected rains to Karachi early Tuesday. 3 mms were recorded.
See Report in Vagaries Pakistan

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Posted Monday,18th Night:
Bhopal had 21 mms of rain in the day on Monday..Along with rains in many places, Cold day in most M.P. on Monday 18th, with Satna seeing a high of 17.3c, Jabalpur & Gwalior 20.0c, and Khajuraho 18.6c.
Rains and Hail expected on 19th in M.P, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, East Vidharbh, Telengana (Hyderabad) and Interior Karnataka (Bangalore).

Gurgaon (NCR) saw a low of 3.2c and Meerut 2.8c.
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See Rohit's Page for Mumbai Surroundings ...17th Jan 2016

Posted 14th Jan Night:
Thursday 14th: Day Temperatures dip in Punjab....Ludhiana saw a high of 12.4c, Patiala and Ambala 15c and Amritsar was 15.7c as the maximum.
Delhi centres recorded 19c in the day. The first day in the season to fall below 20c !
In the Mountains, Srinagar was at 7.6c in the day, Simla saw a high of 9.9c on Thursday.
In the East, Cherrapunji was at 16.2c as the high at low was 5c..(no rains).
Pakistan: Muree saw a high of 8.5c, Lahore was 15.5c, while Islamabad was at 18.0c.

This comes as a relief to Northern India. Most of the Northern regions have been experiencing warm weather. After Christmas, the peak winter period, the days started getting warmer....the temperatures are above normal from 2c to 7c. 


In Kumaon, which is getting unusually warm temperatures, the fruit trees have started flowering, almost 45 days in advance. 
Day temp Anomaly from 13th Dec 2015-13th Jan 2016.

The Uttarakhand and H.P. regions along with the Northern plains are also very dry with very little precipitation. Some hill stations and regions in Uttarakhand have not even received the first snowfall yet.
Precipitation anomaly ( % of normal Rains) from 13th December 2015- 13th Jan 2016.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Wither Global Warming ?

2015 v/s 2014....Antarctic Sea Ice Extent


2014

2015 

In 2015, sea ice coverage was greater than average around the Antarctic Peninsula, the Weddell Sea, and the Wilkes Land coast, according to an analysis by the National Snow & Ice Data Center. The Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean-facing coast had below average sea ice.
2015: 18.83 million square kilometers (7.27 million square miles).Maximum on 6th October. 
2014: The second image shows the annual maximum on September 20, 2014, a record-high extent of 20.14 million square kilometers (7.78 million square miles). 

Scientists think the strong El Niño could have had an effect on Antarctic sea ice in 2015. El Niño causes higher sea level pressure, warmer air temperature, and warmer sea surface temperature in the seas off west Antarctica—all of which affect the sea ice distribution.

“After three record-high extent years, this year marks a return toward normalcy for Antarctic sea ice,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
Sea ice atop the Southern Ocean around Antarctica reached its annual maximum extent on October 6, 2015. The extent was less than the previous three years, which brought consecutive years of new record highs.

 From NASA Earth Observatory.

Some more Interesting Readings and Weather Phenomena...




Sunday, January 10, 2016

Posted Sunday Night 9 pm IST:
The night temperatures have started dropping as noted in Thursday's Post:

Mumbai Santa Cruz which saw 16c on Sunday morning, will see a further fall Monday morning, with Mumbai Colaba heading for a fall after 20c on Sunday morning. Pune which was 10.9c on Sunday morning will see a further drop.
Delhi was 8,8c on Sunday morning, and seeing more cold Monday morning.
Srinagar, as expected was -3.8c on Sunday morning, Gulmarg -9c and Leh plummeting to -15c. 
In H.P, Keylong recorded -11c.
Surat, reached 15c on Sunday morning.....

Let's see the next 12 hrs now...
TOP 10 STATIONS OF KERALA ABOVE NORMAL
(from 1-10-2015 to 6-1-2016)
ERNAKULAM 857.9 491.8 74
KANNUR 527.4 345.2 53
PATHANAMTHITTA 957 628.1 52
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM 790.9 526.5 50
KOTTAYAM 722.1 538.6 34
KOZHIKODE 558.7 422.6 32
MALAPPURAM 558.4 448.4 25
KASARAGOD 407.2 338.1 20
ALAPPUZHA 686 576.6 19
KOLLAM 759.2 642.5 18
SOURCE  IMD CHENNAI
TOP 20 STATIONS OF KARNATAKA (DESCENDING ORDER)
(from 1-10-2015 to 6-1-2016)
STATION ACTUAL NORMAL %DEP
KOLAR 481 229 110
CHIKABALLAPURA 410 226 81
TUMAKURU 317 207 53
BENGALURU URBAN 342 232 47
MANDYA 296 214 38
CHAMARAJANAGAR 319 245 30
UDUPI 410 317 29
DAKSHINA KANNADA 402 335 20
BENGALURU RURAL 273 242 13
RAMANAGARA 274 244 12
CHITRADURGA 176 159 11
MYSURU 231 214 8
CHIKKAMAGALURU 256 238 8
HASSAN 213 222 -4
SHIVAMOGGA 170 190 -11
KODAGU 232 292 -21
UTTARA KANNADA 162 210 -23
DAVANGERE 132 177 -25
HAVERI 116 170 -32
DHARWAD 105 167 -37
SOURCE  IMD CHENNAI