Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Wonderful article on WD for us written by Shreyas Dhavale (Vagarian)


Western Disturbances:


Being in the tropics, broadly speaking, the winter over India is characterized by cool and dry weather.
We all are aware that it snows over Himalayas in winter. For snowfall to occur, the presence of clouds is
necessary. But where do these clouds come from after the monsoon has withdrawn from the
subcontinent? The reason for this winter precipitation which is in the form of rain/snow over Himalayas
and rain over parts of north Indian plains is the Western Disturbances (WDs).

More info on below link:

Monday, December 24, 2018

Posted Monday 24th Afternoon:

33.8c and 32.2c, these are the Sunday day time temperatures for Mumbai Scruz and Colaba.
Well. some relief ahead for around Christmas time....These days around Christmas date will be clear of clouds.
`For Mumbai, 25th will be a bit cooler and 27th/28th with strong North winds will see the days dropping 2/3 c to around 29/30c. Nights on Thursday and Friday will also get more pleasant , dropping to around 14/16c at Scruz on Thursday and Colaba may see 17/18c. 

Pune will see a drop in night temperatures later around Wednesday and Thursday to around 8/9c. Nasik too will feel cold around 7/8c on the 26th/27th.

Maharashtra and Gujarat cooler effect will  show a diminishing sign from Sunday, as we expect East winds to resume  in the region.

With North winds blowing, this cold effect will also be felt in Gujarat. 26th/27th, Ahmedabad will drop to 9/10c , Rajkot may touch 10c and Naliya to around 6/7c.

Severe cold of 3/4c minimum is expected in New Delhi on 26th/27th. Colder conditions will trap the smog and reduce visibility.

No major meaningful rains expected in Tamil Nadu next 4 days. Chennai will be in the 30-23c range.

Thursday, December 20, 2018

INDIA ..Under the grip of winter 
20 Dec 2018

Mostly dry weather is prevailing over the country.Himalayas are in deep freeze.
Even in absence of a strong Western Disturbance effect , most of India is in grip of winter due to Northwest winds.

1) Min temp map 

  • Shekhawati region of Rajasthan (Churu,Sikar) has reported lowest min temps (freezing point) over the plains and plateaus of the country.
  • Mumbai (Scz) ,Delhi (Sfd) reported lowest min temp of the season till now. 
  • In Maharashtra , the lowest min temp of 6 c was reported at Nagar .Mumbai region min temp was in 11 c to 18 c range. Pune city region min temp was in 8 c to 12 c range.

During the weekend ..

  • The below normal min temps to continue over Rajasthan , Haryana ( min temps 0 c to 6 c ).
  • Delhi will be around 4-6 c range .
  • East India min temp will fall by 2/3 c .Kolkata min temp will fall to 10 /11 c .
  • Pune city (west) min temp will be around 11 c and Pune city (east) will be around 14 c .
  • Mumbai Scz min temp will be around 18 c .
  • Bengaluru will be partly cloudy at 17/18 c.
  • Chennai will be partly cloudy at 21 / 22 c.
2) Max temp map 



  • Most of the country was fine ,crisp,sunny during the day. Shekhawati region of Rajasthan (Churu,Sikar)  had daily temp range of upto 30 c .
  • The max temp was mostly normal throughout the country (except East India , where it was below normal) .The humidity was lowest in West Indian region.
  • Mumbai region max temp was in 27 c to 33 range.


  • During the weekend ,
    • Most of the country will continue to be sunny and dry (some rains may be confined to south Tamilnadu , Kerala).
    • Delhi max will be around 22/24 c range .
    • Kolkata max will settle at 25 c .
    • Pune city max will be around 29 c .
    • Mumbai Scz will be dry and sunny at 33 c .
    • Bengaluru will be partly cloudy at 27/28 c .
    • With not much rains , Chennai will be partly cloudy and breezy at 29/30 c.

    Monday, December 17, 2018

    Posted Monday 2.30 pm IST:

    BB-14 makes landfall in A.P. near Kakinada and Yanam. Officially crossed and making landfall.
    But, estimated core winds speed was 30 knts, less than the IMD cyclone norm and in the Deep Depression category.
    (Vagaries prediction of Landfall below Cyclone norm was mentioned on 12th December.)

    The system weakened due to unfavourable SST and drier air near the coast. 
    Kakinada received 72 mms from 8.30 am-2.30 pm Monday, and Vizag 70 mms in the same period.
    Vijaywada received 242 mms in previous 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Monday, and 14 mms on Monday in 9 hrs.


    The system grazed the TN coast and went Northwards due to the favourable upper air divergence.
    Expected to weaken fast and track NE inland.


    11.30 pm IST


    Saturday, December 15, 2018

    Posted Saturday 1 pm IST

    Deep Depression BB-14 at 1 pm IST Saturday....


    Friday, December 14, 2018

    Posted Friday 14th December 11.30 am IST:

    BB-14 , a deep depression now, is situated at 8.2N and 87.6E. the system is 960 kms East /South East off Chennai.
    Estimated core pressure is 1004 mb and estimated core winds at 55-65 kmph.
    Will deepen more now to a Cyclone.
    Expected to track North initially, and then N/NW. When it will encounter drier air of NE winds blowing along East Coast. May weaken 1 Stage.
    Will "graze" A.P. coast around 16th December. Possibility  of "Graze" and re curve N/NE, and re enter moist air again.

    Week end:
    Pune may see around 25/26c as the days high this weekend with clouds.
    Nagpur will get weekend rains and much cooler days on sunday/Monday (20/22c).


    However, we will see the Konkan Coast warming up again, with 
    Mumbai seeing a rise in the days to around 32/33c again. The pleasant lows can also rise by a couple of degrees to around 20c (Scruz).


    Hyderabad : After getting record December rains of 47 mms on Thursday, some more rains this weekend. Cold days around 22c on Sunday/Monday.

    Wednesday, December 12, 2018

    Posted Wednesday 12th December Afternoon:

    The fresh Low in the Bay ( BB-14) is likely to strengthen and become a depression in 24 hrs. The twin Low South of BB-14 will help the system strengthen further and become Deep. Subsequently possibility of a cyclone forming is Low as we see dry NE winds along the East Coast. System will cross the North Tamil Nadu Coast around 15th/16th . Very squally winds and rough seas expected along the TN Coast from Friday.
    Heavy rains likely in Chennai on Saturday with Gusty winds. Days will drop to 25c on Saturday and Sunday.

    An East-West trough is likely to attract East winds into Maharashtra from Thursday. As the above system approaches, moisture will creep into Telengana, N.I.K. Marathwada and Vidharbh.
    Rains and Thunder showers with possible hail likely in the Marathwada and Vidhrbh region on Saturday and Sunday.

    Maharashtra: Interior getting cooler days, Coast warming :
    With East winds blowing across Maharashtra (i) The day temperatures will start to drop in interior Maharashtra. 
    Pune may see around 24/25c as the days high this weekend with clouds.
    Nagpur will get weekend rains and cooler days.
    (ii) However, we will see the Konkan Coast warming up again, with 
    Mumbai seeing a rise in the days to around 33c again. From Thursday itself, or latest by Friday, Mumbai will feel the days getting warmer. The pleasant lows of the last 3 nights can also rise by a couple of degrees to around 20c (Scruz).

    Monday, December 10, 2018

    Posted Monday 10th Evening
    Fresh Low BB-14, in South Bay...Expected to deepen and track towards TN..crossing as DD/Cyclone on 16th....

    WD will move Eastwards


    Saturday, December 08, 2018

    8 Dec 2018  
    Will Maharashtra see first sub 10 c of this season ..


    This post monsoon transition season (Oct / Nov) has seen above average temps over most of Maharashtra and Goa .The state still awaits the first customary sub 10 c min temp from the Deccan plateau region (Madhya Maharashtra / Marathwada / Vidarbha).

    Dry, sunny, fine weather will prevail over most of the state during the next 4 days.

    As clearer weather returns over interior Maharashtra compared to the partly cloudy weather during past few days ,  temps are expected to fall over the majority of the state during the next 4 days  .


    As per the available data set ,

    • Nasik city saw the lowest min temp of the state today at 13 c (outside of the hill ranges of the state).
    • Vengurla in South Konkan saw the highest temp of the state  today at 34.6 c 

    1) MIN TEMP MAP (8 DEC 2018) 

    Mumbai region min temp was in 16 c to 21 c range.

    Pune city region min temp was in 15 c to 18 c range.

    Except North Konkan , minimum temp was above normal throughout the state.

    Contrary to this time of the year ,there was no significant different in the min temps of the coast and interiors (at same latitudes).


    2) MAX TEMP MAP (8 DEC 2018) 

    Except North Konkan and Eastern Vidarbha , maximum temp was above normal throughout the state.
    The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest . 

    Mumbai region max temp was mostly in 35 c to 31 c range.The green environs of Vagaries club at South Mumbai helped the max temp to be capped to a mild 29 c.

    Pune city region max temp was in 31 c to 32 c range.

    Mahabaleshwar (in the ghats) recorded max temp of fine,comfy 26 c .




    North East Monsoon - Not much rain activity expected around Chennai region for the next 4 days.The days will be partly sunny and moderately humid with a max of 31 c. Night temps will be 23/24 c .

    Western Disturbance  - Under WD trough effect ,snowfall in the higher reaches and rainfall in the lower reaches of Northern Himalayas and adjoining areas (Jammu Kashmir , Himachal , Uttarakhand,Punjab) during the next 4 days.Fall in day temps.

    Delhi will be foggy and partly cloudy (23 c / 9 c ).

    Friday, December 07, 2018

    7th December:
    Latest Extremes :
    Karwar 36.6c.
    Keylong (HP) -9.9c. Leh (JK) -8.7c, Gulmarg (JK) -6.2c, Srinagar (JK) -4.0c & Abu (Raj) 4.4c.

    NEM Position today:


    Saturday, December 01, 2018

    Posted Saturday evening
    Hottest place in India on Saturday was
    Thane :36.2c,
    Mangalore 36.0 c
    Vengurla: 35. 9 c
    All along the West coast.
    Saturday morning,
    Ahmadnagar low was 10.0c,Aurangabad & Nasik 11 c, Pune 12c. Mahableshwar 14 c. So Mahableshwar not as cool as others in Maharashtra.
    Mumbai :at 35c will have a pleasant low of 19c on Sunday.
    Pune will see 10/11c on Sunday. 

    Posted Monday 16th September: Anti Cyclone High at 850 hp establishing over West Rajasthan by 19th, and BB 11 steering N/NE from North M.P...