30th March Weather 👇
Weather outlook till Friday 31st March -
As we calculated in mid March after the Heat spell, remaining days of March stayed below 40c in India...And this may continue for another week..as
Another Strong Western Disturbance with trough dipping south on the way!
Effects of the new WD will start from today onwards.
Gujarat: Rain/thundershowers likely in Kutch and Saurashtra on today 29th and tomorrow 30th March.
Ahmedabad region may get some patchy rain on 30th.
Surat, Bharuch, Baroda may see some cloudiness, light showers may be possible in some areas on 30th and 31st.
Maharashtra: Some clouds and patchy drizzle/light showers for north konkan, possibly reaching Ghats.
Mumbai, Dahanu/Palghar, Thane regions may see some clouds with light showers (in some parts) around 31st March. Max temperature around 32-33C near coast, 34-35C in interior konkan, min around 22C.
Pune: Strong west breeze during 30th-31st, max/min around 35C/16C.
Westerly winds can be strong on 30th and 31st March for entire western Maharashtra.
Light showers possible in some areas of Nashik, Nandurbar, Dhule, Jalgaon districts around 31st March.
Rajasthan and Punjab may get some rain/thunderstorms from today 29th onwards. Heaviest precipitation for northern plains, including Uttar Pradesh during 30-31st.
Delhi NCR - Thunderstorms with chances of hail likely during 30th-31st March.
Rain/hail in low-mid ranges of Himalayas, snow in higher elevations from today 29th March - 1st April.
East coast - The pre-monsoon/summer thunderstorms - 'Kalbaisakhis' likely for Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh regions. Parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh to get some rain/thundershowers.
Still analysis of SWM data is being done, and will give our views on SWM soon.
22nd March
Outlook till Friday 25th March:
Another strong Western Disturbance to affect the country with trough dipping South:
Mumbai: 23rd-24th...partly cloudy ⛅️ and chance of very light rain in some areas of city. Day humid around 33/34°c.
Pune: No rain..some clouds ,about 2 OKTA. Warm at 33c..nights around 22/23°.
Gujarat: Rain/thunderstorms with chance of hails likely tomorrow 23rd March across Saurashtra and Kutch. Ahmedabad region may get a few showers on 23rd/24th.
Light showers likley along Coastal Gujarat (Surat/Navsari/Bharuch) and very light showers parts of North Konkan (Dahanu, Palghar, Mumbai, Thane) on 23rd/24th March.
Punjab and north Rajasthan to see rain/thunderstorms during 23rd-25th March.
Haryana, Delhi NCR, west Uttar Pradesh, north MP and remaining areas of Rajasthan can see thunderstorms during 24th-25th March.
Himalayan states and Union territories will see moderate to heavy rain/thunderstorms in low-mid ranges and snow over higher elevations.
21st Maharashtra Days..much below normal
Mumbai:
Santa Cruz : Rain today 16.9 mms...And Monthly also is 16.9mms.{This is the highest ever days rain and total for March (Previous highest was 11.9 mms on 10th March 2006 with 13.1 mms as March total in 2206.}
Colaba: Recorded 25.4 mms of rain. {However the all time record for March is 37.1 mms in 1918.}
Minimum at Colaba was 20.6c (2.6c below normal)
Strong incursion of Westerlies upto upper levels of atmosphere
Surprise early morning thundershowers lashed Mumbai Metropolitan Region on 21/03/2023! Below are some figures ending at 9am in mm:
1. Koparkhairane: 41
2. Memonwada: 38
3. Vashi: 39
4. Mumbai Central: 35
5. Bhendi Bazaar: 34
6. Pawne & Mumbra: 33
7. Sanpada: 32
8. Byculla & Malabar Hill: 31
9. Aadharwadi & Grant Road: 30
10. Marine Lines: 27
11. Kopri: 26
12. Sion, Colaba IMD & Grant Road: 25
13. Vagaries Club & Elphinstone Road: 24
14. Bhatan Tunnel (Expressway) & CSMT: 23
15. Dahisar, Virar & Matheran: 22
16. Dadar East: 21
17. Panvel & Vile Parle: 20
18. Airoli & Nerul: 19
19. Belapur, Haji Ali & Powai: 18
20. Santacruz IMD & Nariman Point: 17
21. Andheri & Sakinaka: 16
22. Naupada: 15
23. Malad & Worli: 14
24. Bandra: 13
25. Kandivali: 12
26. Jogeshwari: 7
27. Goregaon: 8
28. Borivali: 5
29. Dombivli: 3
Data Credits: MCGM, IITM & IMD
Compiled By: Vagarian Abhishek Apte
20th March...Mumbai Air Quality..Good now.
..Green =Good
Air Quality..Afternoon...Yellow = Moderate ( Not Severe)
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19th March...
Mumbai not polluted now...everything imroves..so no panic reactions
Noticeable Lows today in Maharashtra:
Mahabaleshwar 12.4° ( -6)
Sambhajinagar ( Aurangabad) 12.4° (-7)
Nashik 14.5°
Pune 15.0°
Colaba 24.2°
Santacruz 22.8•
Vagaries of the Weather...is not an unusual phenomena...
It is seen that the cyclic variations occur over the years . This can be attributed to the various weather parameters happening from meteorological events in certain periods of time.
Cyclic rotations are repetitive over the years.
In Europe, currently, there is a freezing extended winter and most unusual cold snowfall in California.
India saw the hottest February ever.
An early ( temporary) beginning to March 2023 with high temperatures and lack of winter ( WDs) systems.
Expecting Mumbai to see some light thundershowers from 15th, and better day temperatures around 34/35°c.
We write ( temporary) as the heat waves in the Sub Continent is about to wane.
We do not expect any place in India to touch even 40c ,at least for the next 10 days into March.
All theories will vanish, as Nature first heated the Land, and consequently formes a Low pressure trough in Central India by Mid March.
Early Pre Monsoon Showers expected.. Thundershowers with rain and hail is expected all over
1. Central India ( EastRajasthan , M.P, Chhattisgarh, parts of Haryana &U.P, Jharkhand.
2. Peninsula India ( Maharashtra Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana).
3. Parts of Southern States.
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Outlook: for 14th -20th March
A wet spell of pre-monsoon rains is likely across the country - beginning tomorrow 14th March, and likely extending to 20th March!
Reasons:
- Strong Western Disturbance due to dip in Westerly Jet Stream at 200 hPa
- Trough of low and wind convergence in lower levels across peninsular India
- Lots of moisture pulled in from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal
Thunderstorms with chance of hail likley across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and western parts of Karnataka and Kerala starting from 14th March.
15th-17th March to see the most widespread thunderstorms across the interior peninsula including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal to see thundershowers during the next 7 days.
Outlook prepared by Vagarian Shreyas.
Posted 12th March Afternoon:
Mumbai:
Its been hot and very hot last 10 days for Mumbai. With above normal temperatures to the extent of upto 6c above the average. The last 6 days..showing the trend.👇
Well, all this was attributed to the dominating Easterly winds, which constantly kept the Westerly sea winds at bay. Even the North winds , which could have provided relief, but were missing due to absence of Western Disturbances in the North.
Now, with a Trough of Low pressure developing in the Interior Maharashtra region, the hot easterlies will cease to blow over Mumbai, and ....
From Tuesday 14th, Mumbai will see the days getting better at 34/35c..Much better then the high 30s. But, the sweat factor may increase, as the sea winds can increase the humidity levels..Light drizzle possible in some areas of city on 16th.
So, after 14th, for the week upto 17th, Mumbai will see around 34/35c in the day and partly cloudy skies.
Interior Maharshtra regions like Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwda and Vidharbh can get showers and hail.
Heavy rains and hail possible in Sambhajinagar ( Aurangabad) and Marathwada on 15th/16th. Warning to farmers to take due precautions to cover the crops after thrashing.
15/16 रोजी संभाजीनगर (औरंगाबाद) आणि मराठवाड्यात पाऊस आणि गारपीट होण्याची शक्यता आहे. पीक कापणीनंतर झाकण्यासाठी योग्य ती खबरदारी घेण्याचा इशारा शेतकऱ्यांनाPune can expect light showers on 15th/16th.
These showers in the interior are actually "advance pre monsoon showers". The trough in the Interior Maharshtra and South M.P. region cause the moisture from the Bay and Arabian Sea to converge in the Central Peninsula.
Dr.Vineet's analysis ...More on his page
First time ever in history MJO line has gone out of the boudarylimits of this plot
In terms of amplitude wise, it is third highest, just trailing behind 2015.
Important thing to note 2015 when such an amplitude of mjo was observed , very strong elnino followed
9th March:
El Nino and The South West Monsoon...Instead of going into panic mode, let us first understand the current phase and possibility of an "El Nino" situation.
El-Nino:
El Niño refers to a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can have compounded effects on global weather patterns. El Niño events can have significant impacts on the SouthWest monsoon.
As per information form records, In this period, the Indian monsoon was deficient (-10%) in 8 years and in another 3 years the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm ( -5% to -10%).
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Technical Explanatory Note of Latest Scenario:
* La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (March/April)and early summer 2023.(May/June)(as per CPC)
*Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
*Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
*The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.
**The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
(CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.)
The most recent ONI value (December 2022 – February 2023) is -0.7ºC.
Excerpts from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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Posted 9th March Morning
Mumbai witnessed "The Vagaries of the Weather "
It has been a tough 1st week of March for Mumbai ..Dust factor high with AQI touching an astonishing 325...Above normal heat at 38/39c, unusual for Mumbai with 35-40% humidity....and pounding thunder with light showers..and the ( most unusual) occasional hail !
Mumbai Temperatures behavior last few days
We expect Mumbai to heat up to 38c again by Saturday/Sunday...but no rain of course. A dazzling hot 🔥 sun with dusty atmosphere..AQI could be around 300.
The blowing easterlies will keep the air dusty aided by the local conditions.
Warm stuffy at nights, as we do not expect nights to fall below 24c.
Interior Konkan could heat up to 40c.
Pune and Sambhajinagar (Aurangabad) will remain dry and around 36c in the day.
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Vagaries had prepared the Marathwada and farmers about the chances of unsesonal showers and hail..to save their standing crops...and we received their blessings as below 👇
6th March:
Hottest In India today...Mumbai Santa Cruz at 39.3c...well, seems to be rising without any brakes
Vagaries Private station recorded 39.7c...
But the evening winds and clouds will hopefully drop the day temperatures tomorrow by 2/3c with some rain.
Wind gusts at Santacruz were 46 kmph and winds at Colaba were 45-50 kmph.Colaba 37.0c.
Our First Video Presentation:
Posted Sunday 5th March:
Mumbai Hottest in State today...
Mumbai Santa Cruz recorded the Highest reading of this season by measuring 38.1c on Sunday 5th .(It overtakes the 37.9c of 18th February this year.)
The rise in the last 6 days...👇
(However,No panic, as far from the all time March record of 41.7c at Santacruz in 1956.
In the last 10 years, Scruz has crossed has crossed 40c in March 6 times. (2022 hottest March day was 39.6c 0n 14th.)
Colaba Station also maintained its streak by recording 36.2c...again far from its March record of 40.4c in 1981.
Mumbai is placed 7th Hottest City in India today..Hottest being Karwar (Karnataka) at 40.2c.
Cloudy and stuffy weather to continue...with a light drizzle adding to the discomfort.😕
Some maximum temperatures recorded on 4th March 2023:
Gujarat
Rajkot 39.3ºC
Porbandar 37.9ºC
Surat 38.2ºC
Baroda 38.6ºC
Bhavnagar 37.3ºC
Valsad 39.1ºC
Ahmedabad 38.2ºC
Maharashtra
Mumbai Scz 37ºC
Mumbai Clb 34.7ºC
Pune (Shivajinagar) 35.2ºC
Nashik 35.6ºC
Ratnagiri 35.9ºC
Karnataka - coastal areas seeing very hot weather
Karwar 40.2ºC
Gokarna 40.2ºC
Mangalore 36.6ºC
Off Seasonal Rainfall , Light to Moderate Expected in Western Maharashtra and Mumbai from 5th - 9th March.
Mumbai: Next week, expect a change...humidity ( 70-80%) and along with partly cloudy , sticky weather. ☔
Warm nights and possibly light rains in some parts of Mumbai on 7th/8th.
Pune: Next week, (6th to 9th) , warm nights 18-20c, and cloudy. Light rains with some distant lightning in parts of Pune. Humidity also to be more .☔
Aurangabad : Next week, 6th to 9th,...As the weather gets cloudy, region can expect light to moderate rains in some areas. More rains on 8th. Take extra care of the harvested /standing wheat crops as hails may be expected.☔
औरंगाबाद : पुढील आठवड्यात, 6 ते 9,... हवामान ढगाळ झाल्याने काही भागात हलका ते मध्यम पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता आहे. 8 रोजी आणखी पाऊस. कापणी केलेल्या/उभ्या असलेल्या गहू पिकांची अतिरिक्त काळजी घ्या कारण गारपीट अपेक्षित आहे.☔
Jalgaon: Next week, 5th to 9th, warm cloudy weather with night chill absent. Light rains expected on 6th/7th/8th. Maybe with hails.
Similar forecast of light rainfall for Akola and Nagpur.
I do not expect major damage to Mango fruits as rains may not be much.
Bharuch: Expected hot cloudy weather next week with light rains in some areas.
Change of weather for parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh this week...chances of thunderstorms!
We waited before issuing the forecast...as it is expected around 5th March onwards.
Forecast from 5th - 9th March:
Combination of:
- A strong dip in westerly jet stream (mid-upper level westerly trough 500 - 200 hPa),
- Low level trough (850 hPa) in easterlies
- Moisture from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal
may lead to thunderstorms forming in central and western parts of the country.
Parts of north Maharashtra - Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Nashik, Ch. Sambhaji Nagar, Ahmednagar, Akola may get rain/thunderstorms in patches. Some places may get hail.
Parts of Pune district can also see some cloud build-up and light rain/thunderstorms during 6th-9th March. Rain belt may shift east to cover Jalna, Akola, Washim, and Amravati districts after 6th March.
Mumbai and konkan - No major change in weather, but some increase in humidity is expected.
Madhya Pradesh: Western parts of the state close to Gujarat, and cities like Indore, Bhopal, Khandwa can get thunderstorms with chance of hail from 5th March onwards. Rain belt may spread to cover eastern and northern parts of the state on 6th-7th March.
Rajasthan: Light showers/thundershowers in western parts of the state tomorrow on 4th March. Eastern and southeastern parts of the state such as Jaipur, Udaipur, Kota can get thundershowers during 5th - 7th March.
More details by weekend/early next week...
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