Wednesday, June 15, 2011
The Thai Met Office Chart shows the low, well marked now at 996mb.
As explained, BB1 is expected to move along the trough already prevailing in the North.The (imaginary) line joining the 3 lows in the Northern region of the Sub-Continent is the trough position.
But, it should be remembered, that though BB1 will move tracking the trough, initilly north till hitting land , and them NW. The cloudings of this system are in the Southern half, hence, precipitation will travel with the system's Southern quadrant. since system is not deep, will fizzle out by reaching North M.P.
After nearly a year with La Niña conditions, both oceanic and atmospheric indices have dropped to neutral conditions across the Pacific Ocean.The 30-day (SOI) on 11 June was +7.7.
If one recalls, Vagaries had mentioned in its long term forecast for June of a weak MJO phase after 25th June. Well, it (unfortunately) seems to be on schedule.
International forecasters feel, MJO will be in a weak phase from roughly 20th June. But, they caution this time the waxing-waning is a bit "erratic". Rainfall in central/peninsula and NW India can become erratic, in such phases.
I feel erratic may mean normal to below normal, not the other extreme such as very high precipitation.
Shall keep posting on this .
Live eclipse here: http://www.livestream.com/swansiliguri (Thanks Akshay).
Posted Monday 25th May 1 pm IST: Weak Monsoon advance in Andaman Region.. Feeble Monsoon also advancing into Maldives with Gan getting 2...