Thursday, June 02, 2011

In "Whats the Monsoon scene for Mumbai" put up on 5th May on the Mumbai page, Vagaries had estimated first pre monsoon showers for Mumbai on 3rd June, give or take a day, and re-confirmed this date on 13th May..And continued with the same date in MW-9..28th May. Meteorological reward for having faith in one's forecast !

Mumbai, yes, its 2nd June, and our predicted "pre-Monsoon" showers are here. Heard people announcing the "arrival of the Monsoon" and such discussions on the streets.
Do not jump to fast conclusions. These are "Pre-Monsoon" showers. Convective thundershowers. Which came from the East.
And, these were estimated. 7 mms at both S'Cruz and Colaba against our estimated 8-10 mms (not bad).. Nothing to do with the developing low in the Arabian Sea.
Next 2 days forecast holds good for Mumbai yesterday.
Thunder showers in the evening on Friday/Saturday. Windy with rough seas and cloudy on Sunday. Frequency of showers will increase.(I know the previous blog will not be scrolled by readers -:)))

Vagaries had predicted a system in the Arabian Sea (in the first week of June) in its MW-8, on 24th May. Vagaries had explained its principle of forecasting a system on the 25th of May.
I had pointed out in a reply to svt that Vagaries is the first to announce a formation of a system, before any international model.

98A, is a low now, AS-1, at 1000 mb, off the Goa/Karnataka coast. (Thai Map).

Refering to the Vagaries map put up yesterday, I feel AS-1 will follow the NW track.
My assumption is on the fact that normally a system in these times is guided by the 200 jet streams (besides other factors). In the sat. image, we see cirrus clouds forming to the NW of the system, indicating strong NW jet streams.

As explained yesterday, Vagaries moves the SWM into coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka and T.N.


emkay said...

Seeing COLA latest, the depression looks like turning west quickly by 6th off south konkan, nowhere near Mumbai :(
Seems Oman may take direct hit now.

emkay said...

if COLA to be believed, Mumbai may just about manage to draw in SWM in this pulse.

Anonymous said...

"I had pointed out in a reply to svt that Vagaries is the first to announce a formation of a system, before any international model."

Oh really,
except die-hard weather watchers know this is a lie. The system in the bay first got a leg up on May 23, courtesy of Vinson Kurians article in The Hindu Business Line. Check it out for yourself here.

In the article he mentions a couple of models that were seeing a system grazing the west coast from Konkan to Gujarat. So by no means were you the first. Stop over emphasizing yourself.

PS: Even though Vinson's article was dated May 24, it was available on the intertubez from approximately 11 PM IST, May 23. So HUH!

rajesh said...

@anonymous:...... since you have decided to remain so.
Thanks a lot for following Vagaries with such interest and enthusiasm.
Vagaries had pointed out the possibility of a system in the Bay on May 24th, at 12.11 a.m. and replied to a comment of a keen follower of my blog.
I wish you had pointed out this so called "faux pas" on that day itself, instead of waiting till today !
By the way, it may have been on the net, or published anywhere, but I am not a regular reader of the mentioned newspaper.
Vagaries is a hobby, a passion and not a profession for me. There is NO commercial question of "lies" or "over emphasizing" does not arise.
I do not need advice on how to write my PERSONAL blog.

@emkay.always thought it will move NW. Still feel it will not have enough strength at landfall.

Anonymous said...

While by no means I purport to be a moderator of this discussion. i will make couple of points; while it is a good thing to know that other sources had predicted this occurrence it should not be used to berate anyone at a personal level. I think Rajesh has been gracious enough over the past years to accept and fix any errors in his opinion/facts. Considering this is his personal blog, the best recourse would be to bring to light the facts and let him decide its veracity. Blogs are sustained by community participation in the right spirit.
Regards, Ananth

rajesh said...

@ananth. Thanks Ananth. You are abs. correct.