In "Whats the Monsoon scene for Mumbai" put up on 5th May on the Mumbai page, Vagaries had estimated first pre monsoon showers for Mumbai on 3rd June, give or take a day, and re-confirmed this date on 13th May..And continued with the same date in MW-9..28th May. Meteorological reward for having faith in one's forecast !
Mumbai, yes, its 2nd June, and our predicted "pre-Monsoon" showers are here. Heard people announcing the "arrival of the Monsoon" and such discussions on the streets.
Do not jump to fast conclusions. These are "Pre-Monsoon" showers. Convective thundershowers. Which came from the East.
And, these were estimated. 7 mms at both S'Cruz and Colaba against our estimated 8-10 mms (not bad).. Nothing to do with the developing low in the Arabian Sea.
Next 2 days forecast holds good for Mumbai yesterday.
Thunder showers in the evening on Friday/Saturday. Windy with rough seas and cloudy on Sunday. Frequency of showers will increase.(I know the previous blog will not be scrolled by readers -:)))
Vagaries had predicted a system in the Arabian Sea (in the first week of June) in its MW-8, on 24th May. Vagaries had explained its principle of forecasting a system on the 25th of May.
I had pointed out in a reply to svt that Vagaries is the first to announce a formation of a system, before any international model.
98A, is a low now, AS-1, at 1000 mb, off the Goa/Karnataka coast. (Thai Map).
Refering to the Vagaries map put up yesterday, I feel AS-1 will follow the NW track.
My assumption is on the fact that normally a system in these times is guided by the 200 jet streams (besides other factors). In the sat. image, we see cirrus clouds forming to the NW of the system, indicating strong NW jet streams.
As explained yesterday, Vagaries moves the SWM into coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka and T.N.