Again, Another Super Analysis of SWM as of 31st August 2013 by GSB....on Stats and Analysis Page....
Wow ! 8215 mms...and thats the Topper 0n 31st August...Pradeep has Just Updated his Page with the All India Toppers to Date...Pradeep's Page
Follow up Post as on Saturday Night:
All on Schedule:
Heavy rains lashing Kerala, and as estimated with 10-15 kmph North Winds. figures will be available on Sunday, but some places have received more than 100 mms.
Chennai was dry today, and had S/SW winds in the day turning S/SE by evening.
Mumbai had 1/2 passing showers, and Delhi NCR had localised showers in some parts .
So, the Line of Wind Discontinuity has been created and formed as expected. More thunder showers inland (Southern Peninsula ) tomorrow.
WD in the upper level is crossing North Pakistan, and another follows from the West. Things are moving and changing next week !
Figures of Konkan August Rainfall from Abhijit and Thane Information from Puneet Bangera..on Mumbai Page
Rohit's Page Updated x---------------------------x-----------------------------------x--------------------------------------------x
Posted on Friday, 30th August:
City Forecast for Saturday 31st and Sunday 1st September:
Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny. A few passing showers. Day temperatures around 31/32c. weekend rain amount will be just around 5 mms.
Outer townships will be warm , with passing showers. But still will manage a daily rainfall between 10-15 mms.
Pune and Surat: Partly cloudy, with a light drizzles in some parts. Around 3-5 mms rain possible. Day will be around 29c.
Delhi NCR: Warming up, partly cloudy, but chance of a shower in some parts. Scattered local shower possible. Sunday will be dry and warm.
Kolkata: Rain intensity increases slightly from Monday.
Detailed narration and description below Map
The SWM has started withdrawing from Western and Central Pakistan.
The trough in the extreme North of Pakistan is "pushing" down , and the resultant WD is causing the seasonal low to weaken and elongate, that is concentrated regions are not seen. North Pakistan continues to get rains with Islamabad getting 30 mms today.
Possibly, complete Monsoon withdrawal parameters may develop by Tuesday over entire Pakistan.
BB-11 is hovering in the UP region as a weak system. At the most, we can say it being embedded in the Monsoon Axis, is keeping active precipitation along the axis.
Rainfall is persisting along the axis line in North MP and adjoining UP.
As the system fizzles out by Saturday, rainfall will be shifted to the Eastern end of the axis.
The western end of the monsoon axis is basically dry and has seen the SWM withdrawal commence.
Coastal Sindh region may still see some very scattered light showers on Saturday...may dry up after Sunday. West winds prevail.
Now, an UAC in the Southern Sri Lanka region is going to bring dry weather for Chennai in the next 2 days. Yes...dry weather. As the system moves Westwards and weakens in the Arabian Sea, we will see a rush of North winds into the system along the west coast, and a rush of south/south -west winds along the East (TN) coast.
Hence, spent winds will bring dry and windy (South/South-West winds) conditions to Chennai and TN and moist winds will bring wet and North winds to Kerala.
This also forms a weak perpendicular line of wind discontinuity in the Interior Southern Peninsula, South of 12N.
Thunder showers may be expected along this line in the interiors of southern Karnataka and parts of Western TN. Kerala gets the double benefit of precipitation.
Due to favourably placed Monsoon axis position, Nepal and Kathmandu are getting good rains. Kathmandu received 15 mms today (Friday), taking the August tally to 431 mms, against the monthly normal of 330 mms. Showers will continue this weekend also. Dang got 87 mms today.