Friday, August 30, 2013

next 4 days weather with city forecasts by 10.30 pm..on blog
Again, Another Super Analysis of SWM as of 31st August 2013 by GSB....on Stats and Analysis Page....

Wow ! 8215 mms...and thats the Topper 0n 31st August...Pradeep has Just Updated his Page with the All India Toppers to Date...Pradeep's Page

Follow up Post as on Saturday Night:
All on Schedule:
Heavy rains lashing Kerala, and as estimated with 10-15 kmph North Winds. figures will  be available on Sunday, but some places have received more than 100 mms.



Chennai was dry today, and had S/SW winds in the day turning S/SE by evening.
Mumbai had 1/2 passing showers, and Delhi NCR had localised showers in some parts .

So, the Line of Wind Discontinuity has been created and formed as expected. More thunder showers inland (Southern Peninsula ) tomorrow.


WD in the upper level is crossing North Pakistan, and another follows from the West. Things are moving and changing next week !

Figures of Konkan August Rainfall from Abhijit and Thane Information from Puneet Bangera..on Mumbai Page

Rohit's Page Updated x---------------------------x-----------------------------------x--------------------------------------------x
Posted on Friday, 30th August:

City Forecast for Saturday 31st and Sunday 1st September:

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny. A few passing showers. Day temperatures around 31/32c. weekend rain amount will be just around 5 mms.
Outer townships will be warm , with passing showers. But still will manage a daily rainfall between 10-15 mms.

Pune and Surat: Partly cloudy, with a light drizzles in some parts. Around 3-5 mms rain possible. Day will be around 29c.

Chennai: Saturday may see an isolated rain shower drifting in some area, but chances are less. Sunday will be dry and warm.Heat index may be around 38c. Rains intensity increasing from Wednesday.

Delhi NCR: Warming up, partly cloudy, but chance of a shower in some parts. Scattered local shower possible. Sunday will be dry and warm.

Kolkata: Rain intensity increases slightly from Monday.

Detailed narration and description below Map


Synoptic situation:

The SWM has started withdrawing from Western and Central Pakistan. 
The trough in the extreme North of Pakistan is "pushing" down , and the resultant WD is causing the seasonal low to weaken and elongate, that is concentrated regions are not seen. North Pakistan continues to get rains with Islamabad getting 30 mms today. 
Possibly, complete Monsoon withdrawal parameters may develop by Tuesday over entire Pakistan.

BB-11 is hovering in the UP region as a weak system. At the most, we can say it being embedded in the Monsoon Axis, is keeping active precipitation along the axis.
Rainfall is persisting along the axis line in North MP and adjoining UP.
As the system fizzles out by Saturday, rainfall will be shifted to the Eastern end of the axis. 

The western end of the monsoon axis is basically dry and has seen the SWM withdrawal commence.
Coastal Sindh region may still see some very scattered light showers on Saturday...may dry up after Sunday. West winds prevail.

Now, an UAC in the Southern Sri Lanka region is going to bring dry weather for Chennai in the next 2 days. Yes...dry weather. As the system moves Westwards and weakens in the Arabian Sea, we will see a rush of North winds into the system along the west coast, and a rush of south/south -west winds along the East (TN) coast. 

Hence, spent winds will bring dry and windy (South/South-West winds) conditions to Chennai and TN and moist winds will bring wet and North winds to Kerala.

This also forms a weak perpendicular line of wind discontinuity in the Interior Southern Peninsula, South of 12N.
Thunder showers may be expected along this line in the interiors of southern Karnataka and parts of Western TN. Kerala gets the double benefit of precipitation.

Due to favourably placed Monsoon axis position, Nepal and Kathmandu are getting good rains. Kathmandu received 15 mms today (Friday), taking the August tally to 431 mms, against the monthly normal of 330 mms. Showers will continue this weekend also. Dang got 87 mms today.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Posted on Thursday Night:
BB-11 now weakened and lying over Eastern UP. Precipitation effect reduced over UP, but still active over Northern MP and North Chattisgarh. Weakening fast.
The monsoon axis runs in the extreme North thru The states of UP and along the Himalayan foothills. 

The western end of the axis has weakened to 1002 mb. 
Almost in line with the SWM withdrawal parameter for Western Pakistan, that is Balochistan and Sindh, as shown in vagaries' Sunday blog, but vagaries is holding on to monsoon for a day  as moisture from Arabian Sea has moved into Punjab (Pak) and Sindh.
Rainfall in Pakistan: Rawalpindi received heavy rainfall of 82 mmms, Islamabad 56 mms, Lahore 38 mms. Balochitan and Sindh region was dry.

On Thursday:
Hottest in Asia on Thursday is Basra (Iraq) at 46c.
Hottest in Pakistan was Dalbandin ,at 43cc and in India the mercury rose to 37c in Bikaner.
Mumbai saw a very high temperature of 34.6c at Vagaries. Scruz recorded 32.2c and Colaba 31.3c.
Highest in Maharashtra on Thursday was Solapur at 33.3c, and coolest Mahableshwar at 16.2c.By coincidence, Leh minimum was also 16.2c, but way above normal.
In fact, may hill stations in Kashmir, HP and Utterakhand are showing night temperatures very much above normal. Inviting a WD ?

This temperature anomaly map of last week shows the above normal temps in the higher regions.
Coldest recording in the world today was at..as usual..Vostok : -72c.

Predicted on Vagaries on 25th (see link): Flash Floods in UP..read here: and here

Mumbai Lake levels are today ,for the first time this year, below last year's level...Jayeshbhai sends Last years Vagaries Lake Levels comparison (as put on vagaries) with today's Level.
See Mumbai Page

Rohit's Page Updated


Wednesday, August 28, 2013

BB-11 weakens to  1000 mb and lies over Bihar/Eastern UP. The UAC lies over East MP..Reasons for the sudden and fast weakening of the system are complicated, but mainly due to non support from westerly moisture at upper levels and weakening of the western end of axis. Weakening results in pressure rising and non supportive parameters from the west.

Though overall the pressure over Pakistan region is 1000 mb, a concise region of 998 mb forming in Sindh (Interior) , has pushed in some temporary moisture into the Sindh area. This is delaying the withdrawal of the SWM by a couple of days. Some isolated light rain likely in Sindh in pockets.

Thursday Outlook:
Heavy rainfall region will be concentrated in the North Chattisgarh/East MP and adjoining border regions of NE Vidharbh. The regions East of Katni in MP will be the area to watch. 
Lighter rainfall also covers the Northern and Central belt of UP. 
The main area covered will be from Meerut thru Kanpur stretching upto Bihar. Possible heavy showers in Patna.. Kanpur may get some heavy showers.

Interior TN and adjoining interior Karnataka get thunder showers. Possibility of these showers drifting into Chennai by evening.

Wednesday 28th August, Temperature Facts:
Hottest Place in India today was Ganganagar at 37.5c.Warmest in Maharashtra State was Solapur at 33.1c.
Hottest in Asia was Amarah, Basra and Nasiriyah (Iraq) at 44c. Pakistan, the hottest place was Dalbandin at 43c and Ibri in Oman was hottest at 41c.
Maximum Heat Index in the world today was at the Persian Gulf AP: 52.5c.
Vostok Station was the coldest place on Earth today at -69c.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Follow Up Post..Posted on Wednesday Afternoon:

BB-11 has moved due West towards Jharkhand and weakened to 1002 mb. The UAC associated with it is towards the SW, and corresponding precipitation in the W/SW of UAC region in East MP, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and East Vidharbh.

Parts of South Bengal and Orissa got good rainfall.
Kolkata and Southern W.Bengal got good rains as predicted. Prominent rains in mms:
Mainaguri ARG 115, NH31 Bridge 98, Numaligarh 94, Goalpara CWC 89, Nalbari (Barkhetri AWS) & Sevoke 86 each, Sagar Island AWS 84, Itanagar 78, Kolkata AP 71,

Even our "spot" city forecast on Hardoi was good with 70 mms, Bareilly 12 mms.. Other nearby places got :Domeriaganj 124, Bansi CWC 118.

As the system moves West, the trough along the East coast shifts a bit and slants NW/SE. Precipitation increases in Vidarbha and MP. Rains increase in interior TN today, and Chennai gets Thunder showers by tomorrow as predicted.


Follow Up Post..Posted on Tuesday Night...

UAC has descended as a sea level Low , BB-11, and as on Tuesday evening is centred over Southern Bengal. Associated UAC still hovers in the Orissa area. 
The axis lies in the Himalayan foothills, and further the axis runs East towards another low off Vietnam coast.


As forecasted for Tuesday (see vagaries Tuesday Forecast Map), NW regions of UP, Bareilly, Shahbad and Hardoi circles getting rain as seen in the Wundermap of  tuesday evening (below) of Tuesday evening.
Kolkata recieved 22 mms on Tuesday morning till 11.30 am IST.
Northern UP and coastal Bengal and Orissa are receiving heavy rains, with Haldia and Balasore getting 70 mms, Allahabad and Diamond Harbour seeing 40 mms, getting ..and in adjoining Southern Nepal, Dhangadi saw 146 mms, Dadeldhura 100 mms, Birendranagar 72 mms and Nepalgunj 13 mms. Rain figures till 5.30 pm IST.
and, i fear some flooding in UP with the rain falling and UAC persisting..
As forecasted for Tuesday, NW regions of UP, Bareilly, Shahbad and Hardoi circles getting rain as seen in the Wundermap of Tuesday evening. 
Kolkata recieved 22 mms on Tuesday morning till 11.30 am IST.
Northern UP is receiving heavy rains...and in adjoining Southern Nepal,Dhangadi saw 146 mms, Dadeldhura 100 mms,  Birendranagar 72 mms and Nepalgunj 13 mms.

Based on Karthik Raghavan's compilation of Rainfall AUG/SEP-and NEM relation ...a fellow blogger named Srikkanth has come up with a probabality analysis...See Stats and Analysis Page


Timelapse: Noctilucent Clouds and Aurora Together in the Sky..see Video on Space News Page (Recommended not to miss)


Follow Up Post..Posted on Tuesday Afternoon:
The Monsoon Axis is pushed itself into the Himalayan Foothills, and runs thru UP and the Bay UAC into the Bay waters.Western End of axis at 998 mb, but weakening to 1000 mb and shifting South (through enlarging in area) by Wednesday.. 
As anticipated, a UAC has embedded itself in the axis over UP. Resultant clouding in UP is seen. Vagaries forecast (Sunday blog) mentions of rains from this UAC in Central UP and adjoining Nepal for Tuesday.
Hoping for Kolkata and Central UP rains today..


Anticipating a rain revival to some extent from Friday for Mumbai, as (hopefully) UAC from Bay moves W/NW....

Follow Up Post..Posted on Monday Night:
UAC moves West from Myanmar Coast , and is Located in th North Bay South of the Ganges Delta region. 
The embedded UAC in the monsoon axis has formed in Eastern UP region, and the precipitation expected in the above region in Vagaries Tuesday Forecast Map, may occur as shown. Region and city specific mentioned yesterday.

Absolute moderate to light rains in Mah today (Monday)...till 5.30 pm...In ghats Mshwar got 17 mms and Bhira 13 mms,, and then not much...Scruz 4 mms, Colaba 3 mms, vagaries 3 mms, Solopur 3 ,mms,  Pune 0.1 mms.


Rain concentrated in Southern Bengal with Kolkata getting 29 mms, and adjoining Jamshedpur and Ranchi 20 mms...now lets see on Tuesday, if the rains turn towards West ...

Posted on Sunday evening::
Forecast for next week put up...BB-11 and SWM Withdrawal

BB-10 has become an UAC over the MP/Gujarat border. Its clouding has "bloated'' And spread out over a larger area over North Mah and adjoining MP and Gujarat. But, precipitation is low, hence not much was expected from this.

We trace our current blog back to the article of 20th August: 
Repeat Post:"Storm "Trami" in the Pacific is now at 970 hpa strength, and just North of Taiwan. It has produced a strong trough in a SW direction, and has an embedded Low "pulse" at 998 mb and 107E and 20N, off Northern Vietnam Coast.. Keeping a track on this as it moves Westwards along the axis."

Yes, and move Westwards it did !  The pulse has entered the Bay, and on Sunday evening positoned off the Myanmar coast at 20N as an UAC at 700 hpa.

See detailed Daily Forecast Narration Below Maps:





Monday 26th, we can track the UAC to strengthen, and cover a larger region in the Nort/West Bay. Normally, the rainfall associated with this UAC will be restricted to the Sea areas on Monday.
Showers in East Vidarbh and Chattisgarh possible on Monday night.

Tuesday 27th, the system descends, and at 850 hpa, would be centred off the Orissa coast. Clouding due to the system would cover coastal regions of Orissa and W.Bengal. Precipitation likely in all districts of Orissa. 
Some heavy falls extend into Nepal, and Kathmandu can get thunder showers on Tuesday evening/night. 
Some stray extension into NW Uttar Pradesh possible with showers in the Shahbad, Hardoi and Bareilly cicle. Meerut and othe Northern regions of UP can get showers also.

Wednesday 28th: System may descend, and form a low at sea level (BB-11). The precipitation from the system may be concentrated in the W and SW quadrants, as the isobars in that quadrant will be spaced closely, and get bring windy conditions .
Heavy rainfall is likely in Chattisgarh, and adjoining Vidarbh. 
Heavy falls likely in Districts of Nagpur, Wardha, Amravati and Gondia. In Chattisgarh, Raipur region can get heavy rainfall.
City to watch for heavy rainfall: Gondia and Raipur.
Local Thunderstorms occur in interior TN.

Thursday 29th: System moves West/North-West and lingers over the MP area.
Overnight rainfall mentioned for Wednesday, spills over into Thursday also. A rain patch may bring showers on the East coast from Vijaywada to Chennai in the South.

South West Monsoon Possibily Withdraws from Western Pakistan by Thursday 29th. 
Balochistan and Parts of Interior Sindh remain hot at 43/44c. Karachi may expect an odd day of light drizzles till Thursday.

Friday 30th: As the system weakens, and moves west. 
The heavy rainfall likely in the South MP and North Mah. region (Between Seoni and Jalgoan regions).,,details later.

City Forecast:

Mumbai: Monday thru Thursday: Partly cloudy. Subdued rainfall with 2/3 passing showers, that too in some parts. Daily rainfall 7-10 mms. Warming up to 30/31c.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy. Thunder Showers likely in region on Tuesday. Otherwise some localised rain in scaterred areas.

Chennai: Partly cloudy to suny. Can expect thunder shower on Thursday. Otherwise warm at 35/36c.

Nagpur: Heavy rains can be expected on Wednesday thru Thursday. Rainfall may amount to around 65-75 mms between 2 days

Pune: Nothing to cheer , with Cloudy and no meaningful rains till Thursday. Around 3-5 mm/day.


Surat too will have very little rainfall till Thursday. For after Thursday, we see the system strength in the next few days.


Light rains in interior Mah and Konkan Sunday...i mention this even though the clouding seemed heavy, the actual precipitation was very less...almost averaging between 5-8 mms....
Mumbai Rains almost near our predicted range (upto 7 mms)...Colaba 18.8 mms, Scruz 7 mms...average 13 mms.
.Aurangabad and Washim amongst the higher at 8 mms. Mshwar at 14 mms.

Heat Wave Next Week..Heading for Iowa (US)..could be Hottest This Year


An Occult Occurrence: Saturn’s Moon Iapetus Blocks a Background Star....See Superb Presentation on Space News Page

Thursday, August 22, 2013

On Sunday, Mumbai with sunny day will be warm at 30/31c, with a local isolated shower in some parts.Rain about 5-7 mms in some areas.
Pune will be warmer with light rain in some areas. Warmer day at 30c.
Chennai will be hot at 35/36c.

Maharashtra today (Saturday): Maximum deviation in Day: Jalgaon, with max at 23.7c, below normal by 7.4c ! Coldest night at Mshwar at 16.2c and 20.0c at Gondia, Amravati and Yavatmal.
Hottest place 32.2c at Solapur.

Friday and Saturday, BB-10 moved and "behaved" as per estimate. Heaviest rains in Central MP (meaning West of Itarsi), and Indore getting extremely heavy rains of 142 mms on Friday/Saturday.
Moderate rains in Eastern Gujarat and Surat seeing frequent rains in the day.Udaipur had a thunderstorm on Saturday evening.
BB-10 fizzled out, and Sunday will be seeing decrease all over as estimated.


Expect a 5 day forecast from Vagaries for Sub-Contnent on Sunday by 9 pm IST

Posted on Thursday:
As BB-10 moves Westwards, it weakens, and the rain area shrinks. 

Friday, we can expect rainfall in MP. Particularly heavy rainfall could occur in the region West of Itarsi (MP), upto the Gujarat border. 
Decreased rains in East and Northern region of India.
Friday: Cities to watch for heavy rains: Indore, Itarsi and medium heavy in Baroda.

Saturday: Rain patch moves into Eastern Gujarat. Good rainfall for Surat and Bharuch Cities. Westwards, Bhavnagar also can get showers. Light showers likely in Saurashtra.
Northwards, rains likely in Eastern adjoining Rajasthan. Udaipur possibly can get showers.
Saturday: Cities to watch for heavy rains: Surat, Bhavnagar and Udaipur.

Sunday: Decrease in overall rainfall.
Most of the Sub_continent will have decreased precipitation.

Next 3 days, West Coast gets light to medium rains (15-25 mms) near ghats and slightly lesser along coast. and East Coast (AP and TN) mainly dry.

Decreased rains in North India.

Temps in Maharashtra today (Thursday) : Mshwar @ 16.7c. Also coldest day at Mshwar @ 18.3c. Highest deviation in day today at Akola with max temp at 26.2c which is 4.4c below normal.Highest variation at night at Gondia, which saw 21.2c, and was 2.6c below normal. 


All India Top 20 Toppers from 01.06.13 to 22.08.13
in mm (Min 6000 mm)...Pradeep's Page

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Mid Day Report on Thursday:
 

BB-10 weakens as expected to 998 mb, and tracked slightly W/NW. Lies over 23N and 83E. 

Weakening fast and bringing rains to MP and adjoining Gujarat, E.Rajasthan and Northern Mah regions.
As explained, precipitation decreasing considerably in the Eastern rear of system. Bengal, Orissa and Entire East coast upto Tamil Nadu gets much reduced rains.
Delhi continues to get sporadic spotty showers, some localised heavy for a day more.
Western End Seasonal Low in Pakistan stands firm,at 998 mb (slightly weakened).
 

The other Low, at 1000 mb, in the Far East is crossing the Vietnam coast at 20N. Will travel along axis.

Metro City rainfall till 8.30 am Thursday
 

Kolkata: Alipore 11 mms, DumDum 12 mms Avg 11.5 mms.
 

Chennai : Nungam 6 mms and Meena 11 mms Avg: 8 mms
 

New Delhi : Sjung 4 mms and Palam 1 mm Avg 3 mms. Overall NCR region avg 4 mms.
Arpit and Vineet (Meerut) report heavy rainfall from Ghaziabad and Meerut, and since we have no recording at this palce, nearby palaces readings are available...Indirapuram (10 kms SW from Ghaziabad) received 67 mms, while Hindon, (12 kms NW from Ghaziabad) recieved 5 mms.Meerut measured 45 mms.
 

Mumbai: Upto 0.5 mms in both stations. Vagaries recorded 5 mms.

x------------------------x-----------------------------------x-----------------------------------x------------------------x
Wednesday Mid Night Posting:

BB-10 has moved NW, and was positioned at 23N and 83E as on Wednesday night. Still at 994 mb, it has resulted in strong gusty NW winds in Vidharbh. The SW and W quadrant is still showing convection.
Expected to weaken and track W/NW along the axis.

Many places in Jharkand and adjoining Chattisgarh and MP received good rainfall. Parts of Vidharbh too got fairly good rainfall on Wednesday.
Several places in Punjab Pakistan received some rainfall on Wednesday.


Storm "Trami" in the Pacific is now at 970 hpa strength, and just North of Taiwan. It has produced a strong trough in a SW direction, and has an embedded Low "pulse" at 998 mb and 107E and 20N, off Northern Vietnam Coast.. Keeping a track on this as it moves Westwards along the axis.

x--------------------------------x----------------------------------------------x---------------------------------------x-
 Posted Wednesday Mid Day IST: Mid Day Report of Wednesday:

BB-10 moves NW and currently at 23.5N and 85E. At 994 mb, and entrenched in monsoon axis. Expected to track along axis. 
1. If tracks along axis and moves NW, may create a Break Monsoon " conditions in Peninsula.
2. If tracks West, possibly bring rains to MP and Central India. 
Next 12 hrs will determine course.
In any case, associated UAC will bring rains to SW and S of BB-10.
Westerly jet streams weaken in Sindh region, keeping hopes alive of light rains in SE Sindh and Coast.

First  step for NEM is the first withdrawal of SWM. So, countdown can start only when the SWM "obliges" to start withdrawing ! 

x-----------------------------x-----------------------------------x--------------------------------x------------------------x
Posted on Tuesday Night@ 8.30 pm IST
As mentioned Tuesday morning, Heavy Rains reported from North Orissa and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal regions. 
Kolkata, Bankura, Balasore (67 mms) and Ranchi has received heavy rains.

Heavy rains from region in mms: Deogarh 220, Batagaon 200, Durgachak 172, Diamond Harbour 171, Jagatballarpur 150, Chandanpur  (Orissa)126,Keon jargarh (Orissa) 95 mms, Bangiriposhi (Orissa) 88 mms, Baliguda (Orissa) 70 mms, Sambalpur 29 mms.

Now, BB-10 at 22N and 87E , now at 996 mb and has formed a trough off the East coast. Closely formed isobars south of the system will bring very windy conditions in the Southern quadrant. 
Consequently, there can be heavy precipitation East and North and West quadrants. Intense moisture will bring heavy thunder showers in East MP, Seoni, Shahdol, Umeria and Jabalpur. Hoshangabad too can get heavy rains. Chattisgarh and in Amravati, Akola, Buladana and Jalgoan Districts of Mahrashtra.

Rainfall decreasing from W.Bengal and Orissa regions.

2013 SWM Rainfall comparison of Rajasthan with Tamil Nadu...on Rohit's Page

Monday, August 19, 2013

Note on Withdrawal of SWM this Year:

Several models are recently showing absolute dry and "no precipitation" conditions in major parts of Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan.
And, consequently, I have received several queries on this forecast, such as "is it an early withdrawal of the SWM "?
Does it necessarily mean or indicate a monsoon retreat ?

Let us first study , and understand for ourselves what actually are the parameters and conditions for SWM withdrawal. On monitoring, and following these, we can ourselves decipher and judge whether it is a withdrawal.

Parameters for withdrawal from Pakistan and Rajasthan region:

-1. Let us initially keep a watch on the 200 hp jet streams. During the monsoon , they are Easterlies approximately below the 30N line.This is the Southern periphery of an anticyclone at 200 hp, with the core between 30N and 35N at 150 hp. Peak winds at core exceed 100 knots. Westerlies are to the North of the Himalayas. 
Now, when the withdrawal process starts, we may see a deviation, gradually  from the Northern regions. The anticyclone in the Northern most regions vanishes, and westerlies start taking over below the 35N.
-2. A trough, in the westerlies, in the Afghanistan/ North Kashmir region, would mean the movements of WDs in the upper atmospheres. The frequent movements of these troughs and WDs would hasten a withdrawal.
-3. High temperatures prevail over Tibet till August End. This normally provides the ascent for the Hadley Cell. Falling temperatures over Tibet weaken the Heat source for the Hadley Cell.
-4. The Seasonal Low starts weakening with the formation of a high pressure in the Pakistan /Rajasthan region at the 850 hp level, or below. This would start "crippling" the axis, and its strengthening would regulate how fast the axis moves Southwards. The Southward moving axis, shifts and takes the upper limit of the Monsoon southwards with it.
As the axis reaches Karnataka and TN, the NEM conditions like wind and humidity get established  So, a direct link between SWM withdrawal and NEM setting.
-5. Relative Humidity reduction is observed in the NW parts of India. As the winds change direction, we see reduction in SW winds in the NW regions, thus reducing Humidity.
-6. UTH shows a marked and steady reduction.

Now, where are we placed this year as on 18th August ?

Currently, we do not see any of these parameters showing a withdrawal signs.
AN UAC/Low will be tracking thru Central India next few days. I would rule out any indication or parameter of withdrawal revival till the life span of this system. 

Possibly, this system may push in extreme Coastal and Eastern Sindh region around 24th/25th August.Rainfall. whatever amounts, is possible from Central India thru N/NW India from this system from 20th August-24th August. Good rainfall possible next 2 days in Northern Pakistan.
In fact, Northern India can get more rains for a couple of days after 30th August. (This is not a detailed Forecast report, but just a hint that withdrawal is not immediate).

x-------------------------------------x--------------------------------------x-------------------------------------x
Specific Forecast for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday:

Chennai has a chance of a regional /local thundershower popping up on Monday evening, in some parts. At the most a remote chance on Tuesday with a local area getting a convective uprising shower. Later, as the trough weakens, Tuesday onwards, the chances of rain are negligible. Warm days later.

Mumbai sees the 2/3 passing showers reminding of the monsoon season on Monday. upto 10 mms possible.
A slight increasing trend from Tuesday night, will possibly see a sharp shower on Tuesday night, and some frequent rains on Wednesday. 20 mms/day.

Delhi NCR will continue to receive the spotted regional showers it is receiving. Regional or parts of the region will get showers next 3 days , with some downpours amounting to upto 30 mms on a day.


Jayeshbhai sends Last years Vagaries Lake Levels comparison (as put on vagaries with today's

See Pradeep's Page for...
Super Heavy 10 day Spells This Monsoon...And What Spells ! 
Also Pradeep's effort in working out Normal Goa Averages.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Rain figures of Mumbai eastern outer townships in mm ending 8.30am today(18-08-2013)..sent by Abhijit Modak 
Thane 28.2
Kalyan 64
Bhivandi 60
Shahapur 61
Ulhasnagar 52
Ambernath 51.2
Panvel 24.8
Uran 29
Karjat 65.3
Khalapur 56



Thursday, August 15, 2013

Pune today..Pics from Pavan and Mumbai sunset on Saturday on Interactive Page
Rohit's Page Updated with some Mumbai Region details..Goa added Today

Low pressure formed off AP coast on Thursday 15th evening at 1000 mb. Vagaries shall give it a number by Friday. Low expected to track initially along East Coast  to North AP/Orissa coast.  Heavy precipitation along AP coast on Friday/Saturday. 
Monsoon axis western end moves to Northern Pakistan, and the Bay end in the Low pressure formed.SE winds will dominate along the Orissa coast inland into UP and  Nepal. 
Heavy rains expected in Kerala. 

Special 3 days  forecast for:
Chennai
Friday 16th: Cloudy in the morning. Skies getting partly cloudy in the evening.
Rain showers in the morning,and intensity decreasing post afternoon. Rain amounts will be 20 mms (average) in the day, and decreasing at night.

Saturday 17th: Partly cloudy, with some convection developing in some parts by evening. Regional rains in some parts.


Sunday 18th: Partly cloudy with very less chances of any precipitations.



Mumbai:
Friday 16th: Partly cloudy with some passing showers. A few in between will be sort and heavy. Rain amounts on Friday around 10 mms average. (Rain intensity may increase from Friday night, or Saturday morning.)

Saturday 17th: Cloudy, with slight increase in rain frequency. Some heavy showers of prolonged duration. Heavy downpour in some parts by afternoon.Rain amount 30 mms average.

Sunday 18th: Partly cloudy and few passing showers. Sunny spells will show a rise in day temperatures to 30c.


Outer townships prolonged heavy showers from Friday night or Saturday morning. Can expect rains to be persistent on Saturday with around 40-45 mms.


Delhi NCR: 
Friday 16th: Mostly cloudy in the day. Showers with thunder by evening. Night will be frequently having showers. Rain amount average 20-25 mms by Saurday morning.
Saturday 17th: Cloudy with thundery developments in some parts by evening. Thundershowers in some parts may precipitate upto 15 mms.
Sunday 18th: Cloudy with sumny spells. A shower in some parts, though lesser intensity. Decreasing intensity will precipitate 5-10 mms on Sunday. 

Kolkata: 
Friday 16th will be windy with SSE winds, strong at times. Friday daytime will be around 32/33c, but high heat index of around 38c will make it uncomfortable. A thundershower will cool the city by evening or afternoon. Rains around 15 mms average.
Saturday will be breezy and humid. A thundershower in the afternoon in some parts of city. 
Sunday  post afternoon, will possibly see a heavy thunderstorm of around 30-40 mms.

Bangalore: 
Friday 16th, cloudy and cool, with the day not going above 25c. Showers in many parts in the day.Rain amount around 10 mms.
Saturday 17th: Cloudy, but lesser rains .
Sunday: Light rains on a cloudy day. Drizzles in some parts. Rise in day temperatures.

Hyderabad: After heavy overnight rains, Friday will see some relief.
Heavy rains on a very cool day on Saturday 17th. Can expect upto 35-40 mms on Saturday as frequent heavy showers lash city. 

Rain decreasing on Sunday.

Goa: Rainfall decreasing from Saturday night.

Showers in North Pakistan continue as axis end has shifted North.

Karachi will be cloudy, with light rains on Friday 16th.
Clearing by night. Saturday and Sunday will be almost clear and no rains.
Nawabshah will be partly cloudy, and clearing to hot sunny days after Saturday. No rains.

Stats and Analysis Page updated by Karthik with SWM  position in Tamil Nadu.
Puducherry crosses August Month highest ever Rainfall  from Karthik: 
With 15.8mm in 24 hours ending 08.30hrs today(15/08/2013), Puducherry's 2013 August month rainfall has touched 277.3mm ...An all time record for the month of August for Puducherry..that too achieved in just 15 days!! Previous record was in August 1973,when it received 276.0mm.


SWM toppers till 13th August on Pradeep's Page...

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Typhoon Utor Batters Philippines’ Main Island

Japan heatwave sees temperatures hit record 41 degrees Celcius

Lingering heat wave in Japan leaves 19 dead, 9,800 in hospital

Torrential Rains in Pakistan Punjab: 

Very heavy rains lashed the Punjab region of Pakistan. Our vagaries map hadestimated the region's rain with "light green" colour code.

Islamabad was lashed with heavy rains, with Saidapur station measuring 202 mms in 24 hrs ended 7 pm PST Tuesday. Other stations within the capital measured : Z/P 109 mms and Golra 91 mms. Maximum day temperature in Islamabad today was 23c.
Neighbouring Rawalpindi received 103 mms. Muree saw 62 mms, Sialot 60 mms and Faisalalbad, in just 3 hrs ended 7 pm PST, measured 71 mms.

Heavy rains can shift to Balochistan tomorrow. Rains, though on a reduced note, continues on 14th in Punjab and Central and Upper Sindh regions of Pakistan.
Light rains in Southern and coastal Sindh tomorrow.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Its Hot ! 

Heat Wave in Japan.

Heat Wave in Korea and Japan

Heat Wave in China.

Heat in Eastern Europe.

Forecast for next 3 Days for Sub-Continent

Sprite Lightning Flash ..on Space News Page

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Brief Report as on Saturday Evening

The UAC (A) over East MP ( I would not say it has descended to Sea Level), has moved West, and as referred in the Long term forecast, has brought rainfall over Rajasthan and we can see a string of moisture from Gujarat going towards the system. What was foreasted for Monday, will, it seems, now happen on Sunday.
Precipitation moves into Sindh on Sunday.

Also, a day earlier, the East Coast trough has formed with another UAC (B) embedded in it. The trough, as on Saturday evening, slants from Orissa SE wards away from the East coast, towards the UAC (B) which is East of Chennai, in the South Central Bay.
UAC (C) currently over the NE Bay off Bangladesh coast will merge in the Eastern trough.
Precipitation will occur over the Eastern coast up to TN, from Sunday, and increasing by Monday. 

UAC(A) moves away and weakens, (B) and (C) merge in the trough and strengthen it.

Rohit's Page Updated 

Thursday, August 08, 2013

 Friday's  (9th August) Weather details World Wide: The hottest, Coldest and Windiest Places today...see Current Weather Page

Mumbai Page for Lake Levels by Jayeshbhai

Eid Mubarak to our Readers. Peace and Goodwill to All.

Vagaries' 7 day forecast issued on Thursday, 8th August Evening given as on situation today, and can be changed. This forecast is tentative, and actual occurance may happen a day either way.

a) Current UAC in the axis over UP tends to move westwards on Friday 9th. Rainfall increase possible over Northern India (including Delhi NCR) on Saturday 10th, and shifting West into Rajasthan on Sunday 11th
Remaining moisture can produce sharp convective rains around NCR till 11th.

Moisture attraction from Arabian Sea will pull rains into Gujarat and stretching into Rajasthan on Monday 12th. Coastal Sindh may get some regional rains on 12th.
Interior Mah goes almost dry from Sunday 11th.
Rains may spread (decreased intensity) into Central Pakistan, Northern Pakistan on 13th. 
West coast remains "dull" compared to normal rains, next 5 days. 

b) Monday, 12th, a UAC/Low forms in the Northern Bay off Orissa coast. Moves inland and brings good rainfall to Orissa and adjoining regions to the West. An East coast trough can form on 13th, and bring good precipitation on 13th and 14th from UP down South to entire Eastern India upto AP and Northern TN. 
Western regions of Bengal included, but Kolkata "skirted". 
Thunder activity continues as System forms, and Stray thundercells continue drifting in Kolkata region as  trough forms.

Rains and Thundershowers can stretch into TN on Wednesday 14th. Good precipitation can occur in TN coast and interior on 14th and 15th August.

Mumbai: Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Passing showers only. Amount of rains 10-12 mms. 
Sunday/Monday: Warmer and few passing showers in some parts. Rain amounts 5-10 mms.
Outer townships will be partly cloudy, and getting warmer from Sunday. Towering Cb clouds will be seen. Rain amounts around 10-15 mms.
Pune getting warmer, with light rains in some parts. Next 7 days cumulative rainfall may be around 10-12 mms.


Chennai, gets the isolated rain in some parts, but sees an increase in rains from Monday thru Wednesday.



I always have a tentative 7 day forecast prepared with me. But due to changes and not to go wrong, I usually give a firm 3/4 days forecast.
Since it seems an active an eventfull next 10 days for the East, SE and North, I am putting up my tentative 8 day forecast on blog tonite. Please understand its tentative, and could change, hopefully very marginally.

Rohit has updated his Page

Tuesday, August 06, 2013

Posted on Tuesday @ 11.30pm IST:

Arabian Sea Inference:
A weak anti cyclone circulation dominates the Arabian Sea from Wednesday at least till the weekend. The winds, clockwise, will pick up speed in the sea. Strong NW winds will be experienced along the South Karnataka and Kerala coastlines.
Resultantly, the trough along the west coast disappears.

Rest of this week, the entire West coast of India sees reduced rains, (10-25 mms/day), and sunny weather.
Mumbai will have 3/4 showers and light rain with sunny periods on Wednesday. 
But will change, decreasing from Thursday, when more sunny weather, with a couple of showers interfering in the day. Day temperatures will rise to 32c from Thursday.
There may be some towering thunder clouds seen towards the weekend evenings. Daily rains may not exceed 10-12 mms.

Chennai will be dry and hot till the weekend. 
Bangalore gets light showers in the evening in some parts. Rains may not exceed 5-7 mms.

The NE states, HP, Kashmir, Uttrakhand and Nepal see increased rains.

Jayeshbhai sends Last years Vagaries Lake Levels comparison with today's..Mumbai Page

Sunday, August 04, 2013

Kochi Aiport Flooded..see Interactive Page pics sent by Santosh Subramanian
Chennai Regions rain Analysis by Karthik Added.

Karthik Raghavan's Excellent Analysis of  Tamil Nadu Weather Summary 2013. Superb Presentation ! Its in Detail and can be viewed on Stats and Analysis Page.


Rohit's Page Updated with Himachal Rains Analysis...


What do the next few Days hold for the Sub-Continent? Plenty of variety and a mixture of Heavy rains and dry weather.




5th August,Monday: 
Heavy Rain Watch for Cities: Hyderabad (India), Gangtok.

Heavy rains in Northern AP State, with Hyderabad (India) and surrounding regions getting heavy showers Monday night thru Tuesday. Around 40-45 mms possible. (Trough in the Upper atmosphere).
A vertical line Northwards may bring some evening showers to adjoining Vidarbh and focus will be on Amravati District. 

Nagpur can get a thunder shower on Monday evening...upto 15 mms.
Heavy falls in Bhutan, Sikkim, Upper Assam regions and Northern parts of NE States.Heavy rains in the plains of southern Nepal and adjoining Uttarakhand. Kathmandu is surely in line for some heavy thunder showers Monday evening.

Konkan and Goa will get the scattered showers, with just 20-30 mms in interior Konkan.
Dry in Sindh and Northern regions of Pakistan. Showers tapering away Westwards.

6th August,Tuesday:
Heavy Rain Watch for Cities: Hyderabad (India), Dehra Dun.

Heavy Rains in Northern AP. Regions to watch again, Hyderabad, with heavy showers. 
Central and Southern Nepal continue to get heavy rains for 2nd day.
Reduced rains in Konkan and rest of India continues. Dry in most of Pakistan except Western most regions.

7th August,Wednesday
Overall reduction in rains all over. Except a few heavy falls over HP and Utterakhand.

Mumbai: Brief passing showers. Sunny periods will tend to be hot, and days may rise to 32c. Daily rainfall may not exceed 7-10 mms.

Delhi NCR: Positive chances of Thunder showers on Monday or Tuesday evening in some parts. Rainfall upto 10-15 mms possible per day.

Bangalore: Cloudy, with chances of rain in some parts. 

Kolkata: Some showers possible in some areas, specially on Monday. Rest of the days few showers in parts.

Pakistan Rains on Saturday:
Saturday's overnight rain amounts for Karachi: Karachi (North) 136, Karachi (A/P) 103, Karachi Landhi 98, Thatta 95, Karachi (Masroor) 79, Karachi (Faisal) 79, Karachi (Faisal) 70, Karachi Sadar 47 mms, .
Other cities: Jacobabad 153 mms, Chorr 66 mms, Sukkur 59 mms, Nawabshah 36 mms, Lahore 30 mms, Hyderarbad 26 mms, 

Rain on Sunday: Karachi 40 mms, 

Yet another Innovative addition from  the Vagaries Family: Newly Added on Vagaries, Rohit Aroskar's Page: This Page will be reserved solely for the Unique and "State of the Art" diagrams and Information from  Rohit Aroskar...