Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Wonderful article on WD for us written by Shreyas Dhavale (Vagarian)


Western Disturbances:


Being in the tropics, broadly speaking, the winter over India is characterized by cool and dry weather.
We all are aware that it snows over Himalayas in winter. For snowfall to occur, the presence of clouds is
necessary. But where do these clouds come from after the monsoon has withdrawn from the
subcontinent? The reason for this winter precipitation which is in the form of rain/snow over Himalayas
and rain over parts of north Indian plains is the Western Disturbances (WDs).

More info on below link:

Monday, December 24, 2018

Posted Monday 24th Afternoon:

33.8c and 32.2c, these are the Sunday day time temperatures for Mumbai Scruz and Colaba.
Well. some relief ahead for around Christmas time....These days around Christmas date will be clear of clouds.
`For Mumbai, 25th will be a bit cooler and 27th/28th with strong North winds will see the days dropping 2/3 c to around 29/30c. Nights on Thursday and Friday will also get more pleasant , dropping to around 14/16c at Scruz on Thursday and Colaba may see 17/18c. 

Pune will see a drop in night temperatures later around Wednesday and Thursday to around 8/9c. Nasik too will feel cold around 7/8c on the 26th/27th.

Maharashtra and Gujarat cooler effect will  show a diminishing sign from Sunday, as we expect East winds to resume  in the region.

With North winds blowing, this cold effect will also be felt in Gujarat. 26th/27th, Ahmedabad will drop to 9/10c , Rajkot may touch 10c and Naliya to around 6/7c.

Severe cold of 3/4c minimum is expected in New Delhi on 26th/27th. Colder conditions will trap the smog and reduce visibility.

No major meaningful rains expected in Tamil Nadu next 4 days. Chennai will be in the 30-23c range.

Thursday, December 20, 2018

INDIA ..Under the grip of winter 
20 Dec 2018

Mostly dry weather is prevailing over the country.Himalayas are in deep freeze.
Even in absence of a strong Western Disturbance effect , most of India is in grip of winter due to Northwest winds.

1) Min temp map 

  • Shekhawati region of Rajasthan (Churu,Sikar) has reported lowest min temps (freezing point) over the plains and plateaus of the country.
  • Mumbai (Scz) ,Delhi (Sfd) reported lowest min temp of the season till now. 
  • In Maharashtra , the lowest min temp of 6 c was reported at Nagar .Mumbai region min temp was in 11 c to 18 c range. Pune city region min temp was in 8 c to 12 c range.

During the weekend ..

  • The below normal min temps to continue over Rajasthan , Haryana ( min temps 0 c to 6 c ).
  • Delhi will be around 4-6 c range .
  • East India min temp will fall by 2/3 c .Kolkata min temp will fall to 10 /11 c .
  • Pune city (west) min temp will be around 11 c and Pune city (east) will be around 14 c .
  • Mumbai Scz min temp will be around 18 c .
  • Bengaluru will be partly cloudy at 17/18 c.
  • Chennai will be partly cloudy at 21 / 22 c.
2) Max temp map 



  • Most of the country was fine ,crisp,sunny during the day. Shekhawati region of Rajasthan (Churu,Sikar)  had daily temp range of upto 30 c .
  • The max temp was mostly normal throughout the country (except East India , where it was below normal) .The humidity was lowest in West Indian region.
  • Mumbai region max temp was in 27 c to 33 range.


  • During the weekend ,
    • Most of the country will continue to be sunny and dry (some rains may be confined to south Tamilnadu , Kerala).
    • Delhi max will be around 22/24 c range .
    • Kolkata max will settle at 25 c .
    • Pune city max will be around 29 c .
    • Mumbai Scz will be dry and sunny at 33 c .
    • Bengaluru will be partly cloudy at 27/28 c .
    • With not much rains , Chennai will be partly cloudy and breezy at 29/30 c.

    Monday, December 17, 2018

    Posted Monday 2.30 pm IST:

    BB-14 makes landfall in A.P. near Kakinada and Yanam. Officially crossed and making landfall.
    But, estimated core winds speed was 30 knts, less than the IMD cyclone norm and in the Deep Depression category.
    (Vagaries prediction of Landfall below Cyclone norm was mentioned on 12th December.)

    The system weakened due to unfavourable SST and drier air near the coast. 
    Kakinada received 72 mms from 8.30 am-2.30 pm Monday, and Vizag 70 mms in the same period.
    Vijaywada received 242 mms in previous 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Monday, and 14 mms on Monday in 9 hrs.


    The system grazed the TN coast and went Northwards due to the favourable upper air divergence.
    Expected to weaken fast and track NE inland.


    11.30 pm IST


    Saturday, December 15, 2018

    Posted Saturday 1 pm IST

    Deep Depression BB-14 at 1 pm IST Saturday....


    Friday, December 14, 2018

    Posted Friday 14th December 11.30 am IST:

    BB-14 , a deep depression now, is situated at 8.2N and 87.6E. the system is 960 kms East /South East off Chennai.
    Estimated core pressure is 1004 mb and estimated core winds at 55-65 kmph.
    Will deepen more now to a Cyclone.
    Expected to track North initially, and then N/NW. When it will encounter drier air of NE winds blowing along East Coast. May weaken 1 Stage.
    Will "graze" A.P. coast around 16th December. Possibility  of "Graze" and re curve N/NE, and re enter moist air again.

    Week end:
    Pune may see around 25/26c as the days high this weekend with clouds.
    Nagpur will get weekend rains and much cooler days on sunday/Monday (20/22c).


    However, we will see the Konkan Coast warming up again, with 
    Mumbai seeing a rise in the days to around 32/33c again. The pleasant lows can also rise by a couple of degrees to around 20c (Scruz).


    Hyderabad : After getting record December rains of 47 mms on Thursday, some more rains this weekend. Cold days around 22c on Sunday/Monday.

    Wednesday, December 12, 2018

    Posted Wednesday 12th December Afternoon:

    The fresh Low in the Bay ( BB-14) is likely to strengthen and become a depression in 24 hrs. The twin Low South of BB-14 will help the system strengthen further and become Deep. Subsequently possibility of a cyclone forming is Low as we see dry NE winds along the East Coast. System will cross the North Tamil Nadu Coast around 15th/16th . Very squally winds and rough seas expected along the TN Coast from Friday.
    Heavy rains likely in Chennai on Saturday with Gusty winds. Days will drop to 25c on Saturday and Sunday.

    An East-West trough is likely to attract East winds into Maharashtra from Thursday. As the above system approaches, moisture will creep into Telengana, N.I.K. Marathwada and Vidharbh.
    Rains and Thunder showers with possible hail likely in the Marathwada and Vidhrbh region on Saturday and Sunday.

    Maharashtra: Interior getting cooler days, Coast warming :
    With East winds blowing across Maharashtra (i) The day temperatures will start to drop in interior Maharashtra. 
    Pune may see around 24/25c as the days high this weekend with clouds.
    Nagpur will get weekend rains and cooler days.
    (ii) However, we will see the Konkan Coast warming up again, with 
    Mumbai seeing a rise in the days to around 33c again. From Thursday itself, or latest by Friday, Mumbai will feel the days getting warmer. The pleasant lows of the last 3 nights can also rise by a couple of degrees to around 20c (Scruz).

    Monday, December 10, 2018

    Posted Monday 10th Evening
    Fresh Low BB-14, in South Bay...Expected to deepen and track towards TN..crossing as DD/Cyclone on 16th....

    WD will move Eastwards


    Saturday, December 08, 2018

    8 Dec 2018  
    Will Maharashtra see first sub 10 c of this season ..


    This post monsoon transition season (Oct / Nov) has seen above average temps over most of Maharashtra and Goa .The state still awaits the first customary sub 10 c min temp from the Deccan plateau region (Madhya Maharashtra / Marathwada / Vidarbha).

    Dry, sunny, fine weather will prevail over most of the state during the next 4 days.

    As clearer weather returns over interior Maharashtra compared to the partly cloudy weather during past few days ,  temps are expected to fall over the majority of the state during the next 4 days  .


    As per the available data set ,

    • Nasik city saw the lowest min temp of the state today at 13 c (outside of the hill ranges of the state).
    • Vengurla in South Konkan saw the highest temp of the state  today at 34.6 c 

    1) MIN TEMP MAP (8 DEC 2018) 

    Mumbai region min temp was in 16 c to 21 c range.

    Pune city region min temp was in 15 c to 18 c range.

    Except North Konkan , minimum temp was above normal throughout the state.

    Contrary to this time of the year ,there was no significant different in the min temps of the coast and interiors (at same latitudes).


    2) MAX TEMP MAP (8 DEC 2018) 

    Except North Konkan and Eastern Vidarbha , maximum temp was above normal throughout the state.
    The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest . 

    Mumbai region max temp was mostly in 35 c to 31 c range.The green environs of Vagaries club at South Mumbai helped the max temp to be capped to a mild 29 c.

    Pune city region max temp was in 31 c to 32 c range.

    Mahabaleshwar (in the ghats) recorded max temp of fine,comfy 26 c .




    North East Monsoon - Not much rain activity expected around Chennai region for the next 4 days.The days will be partly sunny and moderately humid with a max of 31 c. Night temps will be 23/24 c .

    Western Disturbance  - Under WD trough effect ,snowfall in the higher reaches and rainfall in the lower reaches of Northern Himalayas and adjoining areas (Jammu Kashmir , Himachal , Uttarakhand,Punjab) during the next 4 days.Fall in day temps.

    Delhi will be foggy and partly cloudy (23 c / 9 c ).

    Friday, December 07, 2018

    7th December:
    Latest Extremes :
    Karwar 36.6c.
    Keylong (HP) -9.9c. Leh (JK) -8.7c, Gulmarg (JK) -6.2c, Srinagar (JK) -4.0c & Abu (Raj) 4.4c.

    NEM Position today:


    Saturday, December 01, 2018

    Posted Saturday evening
    Hottest place in India on Saturday was
    Thane :36.2c,
    Mangalore 36.0 c
    Vengurla: 35. 9 c
    All along the West coast.
    Saturday morning,
    Ahmadnagar low was 10.0c,Aurangabad & Nasik 11 c, Pune 12c. Mahableshwar 14 c. So Mahableshwar not as cool as others in Maharashtra.
    Mumbai :at 35c will have a pleasant low of 19c on Sunday.
    Pune will see 10/11c on Sunday. 

    Wednesday, November 28, 2018

    28 Nov 2018  
    Maharashtra still awaits sub 10 c min temp


    This post monsoon transition season (Oct / Nov) has seen above average temps over most of Maharashtra and Goa .The state still awaits the first customary sub 10 c min temp from the Deccan plateau region (Madhya Maharashtra / Marathwada / Vidarbha).

    Currently; dry, sunny, fine weather prevails over the state.
    The majority area of Deccan plateau saw min temps in the cold range of 10-13 c .Interior Konkan min temp was 15-17 c.Coastal Konkan min temp was 17-21 c.

    As per the available data set ,

    • Ahmadnagar saw the lowest min temp of the state today at 10 c (outside of the hill ranges of the state).
    • Thane Belapur Industrial Area (TBIA) in Mumbai region saw the highest temp of the state and the country today at 35.8 c (though the lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp during this time of the year , made it feel more comfortable than the readings suggest). 

    1) MIN TEMP MAP (28 Nov 2018) 

    Mumbai region min temp was in 15 c to 22 c range.
    Pune city region min temp was in 11 c to 15 c range.




    2) MAX TEMP MAP (28 NOV 2018) 
    Most of the Deccan Plateau was fine,sunny and dry at 29-31 c .
    Konkan region(west coast) was sunny,warm and dry at 33-35 c .
    The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest .

    Image result for cactus cartoonMumbai region max was 33 to 35.8 c  with very  low hum of 20 to 30 % (heat index at 31 to 35)The lower humidity and the transient nature of the max temp at this time of the year made the day temperatures feel more comfortable than the readings suggest .



    Sunday, November 25, 2018

    Posted Sunday night :

    A NEM break now is not good news  Break till 1st week of December, and time is running out. We need good massive spells in early December.

    A WD is on course for good winter rains and snow over North and North West India.. By Wednesday night 

    Mainly dry weather all over India next 3 days.

    Mumbai : next 3 days will see Easterly winds in the morning . Hence day warm around 33-35 c. After evening sea breeze  night around 20/22c.

    Pune :light high clouds keeping day around 30/32c. Nights will be around 13/15c.

    Saturday, November 24, 2018

    The normal power of NEM... Today's rain

    One hell of a pull effect rains seen in Tamil Nadu Delta region as bands after bands moved into the Delta belt.Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 24.11.2018
    ===================
    in mm (min 50 mm)

    Ramanthapuram
    -------------
    Rameswaram - 226
    Pamban - 155
    Thangachimadam - 150
    Mandapam - 94

    Nagapattinam
    -------------
    Talaignayar - 212
    Nagapattinam - 167
    Tirupoondi - 146
    Tarangambadi - 103
    Mayiladathurai - 64

    Tiruvarur
    -----------
    Valangaiman - 190
    Tiruvarur - 174
    Koraiyar head (pannimangalam) - 158
    Needmangalam - 153
    Kodavasal - 136
    Thattankovil - 132
    Pandavaiyar Head - 117
    Mannargudi - 114
    Nannilam - 97
    Thiruthuraipoondi - 71

    Thanjavur
    -----------
    Neivasal thenpathi - 175
    Papanasam - 155
    Kumbakonam - 147
    Eachanviduthi - 145
    Lower Anaicut - 124
    Manjalaru - 114
    Madukkur - 102
    Thiruvidaimaruthur - 90
    Vettaikadu- 88
    Tiruvaiyaru - 82
    Pattukottai - 74
    Adiramapattinam - 72
    Ayyampettai - 71
    Thanjavur PTO - 71
    Kurungulam - 50

    Cuddalore
    -----------
    Kilacheruvai- 145
    Lakkur - 141
    Me.Mathur - 88
    Tozhudur - 86
    Vepur - 83
    Km.Koil - 79
    Pallandurai - 69
    Bhuvanagiri - 66
    Srimushnam - 61
    Parangipettai - 53
    Seithaithope - 50

    Ariyalaur
    ---------
    Ariyalur - 103
    Jayamkondam - 71
    Sendurai - 67
    Thirumanur - 62

    Perambalur
    ------------
    Agaram Seekoor - 102
    Chettikulam - 95
    Perambalur - 89
    Labbaikudikadu - 84
    Veppanthattai - 54

    Trichy
    -------
    Devimangalam - 88
    Kallakudi - 60
    Lalgudi - 60
    Pullambadi - 59
    Samyapuram - 54
    Thenparanadu - 50

    Coimbatore
    -------------
    Chinnakallar - 84
    Valparai Taluk Office - 73
    Valparai PAP - 68
    Sholayar Dam - 51

    Others
    ---------
    Karaikkal, Karaikkal - 111
    Papanasam Dam, Tirunelveli - 61
    Chittar II, Kanyakumari - 57
    Chittar I, Kanyakumari - 56
    Perungalur, Pudukottai - 57
    Ulunderpet, Villupuram -53
    Pillaiyarkuppam, Villupuram - 50
    Thirupalapandal, Villupuram - 49
    Servalar, Tirunelveli - 47
    Sattur, Virudhunagar - 46
    Sulangurichi, Villupuram - 46
    Harur, Dharmapuri - 45
    Kadalkudi, Thoothukudi - 45
    Ettayapuram, Thoothukudi - 44
    Gandavarkottai, Pudukottai - 44
    Madampoondi, Villupuram - 43
    Nedungal, Krishnagiri - 43
    Veeraganoor, Salem - 43
    Vengur, Villupuram - 42
    Sankarapuram, Villupuram - 42
    Mugaiyur, Villupuram - 41
    Keeranoor, Pudukottai - 40
    Chengam, Tiruvannamalai - 40
    Polur, Tiruvannamalai - 40



    Massive Rainfall in and around Chennai region and Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 23.11.2018
    ========================
    in mm


    Chengalpet - 183
    Madurantagam - 138
    Thirukazhakundram (near mahabs) - 130
    Mahabalipuram - 96
    Uthiramerur - 95
    Vembakakkam - 77
    Sriperumbedur - 77
    Kancheepuram - 73
    Cholavaram - 59
    Redhills - 57
    Tambaram - 54
    Tamaraipakkam - 52
    Katupakkam - 48
    Arakonam - 38
    Sathyabama University - 37
    Tiruttani PTO - 37
    Puzhal - 34
    Ponneri - 32
    Tiruttani - 27
    Ennore - 26
    DGP office Marina - 22
    Chembarabakkam - 21
    Poonamallee - 20
    Kelambakkam - 19
    Meenambakkam - 17
    Hindustan University - 16
    Anna University - 16
    Tiruvallur - 16
    Thiruvalangadu - 16
    Madhavaram - 15
    Kolapakkam - 13
    Poondi Lake - 13
    Nungambakkam - 12
    Korattur Anaicut - 11
    Taramani - 10

    Others
    ------------------
     Vandavasi, Thiruvanamalai - 93
    Chetpet, Thiruvannamalai - 93
    Tiruporur, Kancheepuram - 86
    Marakannam, Villupuram - 80
    Parangipettai, Cuddalore - 78
    Vanur, Villupuram - 77
    Avalurpettai, Villupuram - 77
    Valathy, Villupuram - 76
    Gingee, Villupuram - 76
    Vallam, Villupuram - 74
    Kalasapakkam, Tiruvannamalai - 74
    Arani, Tiruvannamalai - 70
    Vadakuthu, Cuddalore - 69
    Avinashi, Tiruppur - 64
    Kodanad, Nilgiris - 62
    Semmedu, Villupuram - 62
    Polur, Tiruvannamalai - 61
    Cheyyar, Tiruvvannamali - 61
    Cuddalore, Cuddalore - 59
    Ayikudi, Tirunelveli - 55
    Tiruvannamalai, Tiruvannamalai - 55
    Neyveli, Cuddalore - 55
    Kalvai, Vellore - 55
    Srikazhi, Nafapattinam - 52
    Sankarapuram, Villupuram - 51
    Manimuthar, Tirunelveli - 50
    Thekkady, Theni - 50
    Pondy, Pondy - 49
    Anaikaranchatram, Nagapattinam - 48
    Vellore, Vellore - 47
    Trangambadi, Nagapattinam - 41
    Ariyalur, Ariyalur - 40



    Chennai region and Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 22.11.2018 from the WML (92 B)
    =================
    in mm


    Chithamur - 180
    Cholavaram Lake - 120
    Madhavaram - 119
    Redhils Lake - 106
    Cheyyur - 103
    Gumidipoondi - 100
    Ponneri - 97
    Ennore - 96
    Nungambakkam - 94
    DGP Office Marina - 93
    Puzhal - 91
    Meenambakkam - 87
    Guindy - 85
    Thamaraipakkam - 83
    Uthukottai - 80
    Tirukazhakundram - 77
    Tiruttani - 75
    Taramani - 74
    Tiruporur - 64
    Tiruttani PTO - 64
    Sathyabama University - 60
    Aynavaram - 59
    Madurantagam - 58
    Mahabalipuram - 58
    Poondi Lake - 56
    Alandur - 56
    Kelambakkam - 54
    Ambattur - 53
    Chengalpet - 50
    MGR Nagar - 49
    Tondairpet - 48
    Perambur - 48
    Tiruvallur - 45
    Parrys - 43
    Tambaram - 40
    Hindustan University - 40
    Sholinganallur - 40
    Kancheepuram - 36
    Katupakkam - 35
    Poonamalle - 33
    Korattur Anaicut - 31
    Chembarabakkam Lake - 31
    Thiruvalangadu - 30

    Villupuram
    ----------
    Vanur - 112
    Marakanam - 89
    Tindivanam - 88
    Vallam - 68
    Vilupuram - 61
    Gingee - 57
    Mailam - 53
    Koliyanur - 49
    Kedar - 42
    Semmedu - 40
    Mundiyampakkam - 40
    Erudaiyampattu - 40
    Anandhapuram - 40
    Sankarapuram - 40

    Cuddalore
    -------
    Vadakuthu - 91
    Panruti - 86
    Neyveli - 76
    Kurinjipadi - 54
    Tozhudur - 46
    Kilacheruvai - 31
    Lakkur - 30
    Vanmahadevi - 30
    Vepur - 30

    Thiruvannamalai
    ---------------
    Kilpennathur - 51
    Vandavasi - 49
    Chetpet - 43

    Vellore
    ---------
    Katpadi - 50
    Arakonam - 32
    Ammundi - 31
    Virinjipuram - 30
    Arcot - 30

    Salem
    -----------
    Veeraganoor - 68
    Gangavalli - 42
    Attur - 30

    Others
    ----------------
    Lower Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 82
    Samayapuram, Trichy - 57
    Mandapam, Ramanathapuram - 56
    Thaluthalai, Perambalur - 54
    Upper Kodayar, Kanyakumari - 46
    Kadaladi, Ramanathapuram - 34
    Pappireddipatti, Dharmapuri - 33
    Harur, Dharmapuri - 30
    Ariyalur, Ariyalur - 30 mm

    Tuesday, November 20, 2018

    GAJA becomes weak as it approaches 65E.
    BB 14 set to bring rains to TN from Tuesday
    WD approaching N. India by Wednesday .. N2

    Saturday, November 17, 2018

    Kerala got its best spell of rains from Cyclone Gaja since the August 2018 floods. Rainfall ending 8.30 on 17.11.2018
    ===================
    in mm (min 40 mm)

    Kozha, Kottayam - 280
    Piravom, Eranakulam - 186
    Madupattey, Idukki - 157
    Thodupuzha, Idukki - 152
    Pambla Dam, Idukki - 147
    Neeriamangalam, Idukki - 132
    Cherthala, Alappuzha - 117
    Munnar, Idukki - 116
    Kumarakom, Kottayam - 105
    Idukki Dam, Idukki - 98
    Vaikom, Kottayam - 95
    Myladumpara, Idukki - 85
    Ponmudi, Idukki - 82
    Kottayam, Kottayam - 79
    Peermade, Idukki - 72
    Vazhathope, Idukki - 60
    Ernakulam South, Ernakulam - 54
    Kakki Dam, Pathanamthitta - 48
    Perumbavur, Eranakulam - 47
    Alappuzha, Alappuzha - 43
    Kochi AP, Ernakulam - 42
    Mavelikkara, Alappuzha - 42


    Info courtesy Vagaries Rainman Pradeep John
    Tamil Nadu Rainfall from Cyclone Gaja in Tamil Nadu ending 8.30 am on 17.11.2018
    ==========================
    in mm (40 mm)

    Kodaikanal Boat Club, Dindigul - 197
    Sivaganga, Sivaganga - 170
    Kudimiyamalai, Pudukottai - 154
    Kodaikanal, Dindigul - 141
    Karaiyur, Pudukottai - 130
    Marudhanadhi, Theni - 127
    Annavasal, Pudukottai - 116
    Peranai, Dindigul - 108
    Thammampatty, Salem - 97
    Nilakottai, Dindigul - 94
    Illuppur, Pudukkottai - 88
    Periyakulam, Theni - 88
    Bodinaickanur, Theni - 88
    Manjalar Dam, Theni - 80
    Ponnamarvathi, Pudukottai - 80
    Tirupattur, Sivaganga - 76
    Chinnakalar, Coimbatore - 70
    Vadipatti, Madurai - 68
    Kadamaparai, Coimbatore - 69
    Pulippatti, Madurai - 69
    Veerapandi, Theni - 68
    Vaigai dam, Theni - 65
    Andipatti, Theni - 64
    Ayudaiyarkovil, Pudukottai - 64
    Paluviduthi, Karur - 63
    Cincona, Coimbatore - 63
    Eravangalar Dam, Theni - 62
    Kamatchipuram, Dindigul - 62
    Sathiyar Dam, Madurai - 60
    Dindigul, Dindigul - 59
    Gudalur, Theni - 56
    Odanchataram, Dindigul - 56
    Aranmanaipudur, Theni - 54
    Sholavandan, Madurai - 52
    Sothuparai, Theni - 52
    Mylampatti, Karur - 52
    Karaikudi, Sivaganga - 51
    Thekkady, Theni - 49
    Periakallar, Coimbatore - 47
    Thaniyamangalam - 46
    Natham, Dindigul - 46
    Valparai Taluk office, Coimbatore - 46
    Parambikulam, Coimbatore - 46
    Amaravathy Dam, Tiruppur - 46
    Mettupatti, Madurai - 45
    Mugaiyur, Villupuram - 45
    Usilampatti, Madurai - 44
    Uthamapalayam, Theni - 43
    Kedar, Villupuram - 42
    Mangalapuram, Namakkal - 41
    Arantangi, Pudukkottai - 40
    Kallandiri, Madurai - 40
    Thiruvannamalai, Thiruvannamalai - 40
    Upper Aliyar, Coimbatore - 40
    Tirupuvanam, Sivaganga - 40
    Viralimalai, Pudukkottai - 40

    Rainfall from Cyclone Gaja in Tami Nadu ending 8.30 am on 16.11.2018
    ==========================
    in mm (50 mm)

    Thiruthuraipoondi, Tiruvarur - 171
    Muthupet. Tiruvarur - 171
    Adirampatnam, Thanjavur - 167
    Vadakuthu, Cuddalore - 146
    Peravurani, Thanjavur - 144
    Pattukottai, Thanjavur - 143
    Neyveli, Cuddalore - 143
    Kurinjipadi, Cuddalore - 126
    Virudachalam, Cuddalore - 120
    Kodhavacheri, Cuddalore - 109
    Chengalpattu, Kancheepuram - 107
    Vettaikadu, Thanjavur - 93
    Cuddalore, Cuddalore - 87
    Koliporvilai, Kanyakumari - 85
    Thiruporur, Kancheepuram - 85
    Kuruthancode, Kanyakumari - 83
    Madukkur, Thanjavur - 82
    Arantangi, Pudukkottai - 77
    Vandavasi, Tiruvannamalai - 76
    Srimushnam, Cuddalore - 74
    Uthiramerur, Kancheepuram - 73
    Nagercoil, Kanyakumari - 73
    Kottaram, Kanyakumari - 72
    Valinokkam, Ramanathapuram - 72
    Orthanad, Thanjavur - 72
    Needamangalam, Tiruvarur - 67
    Sethiathope, Cuddalore - 66
    Thuckalay, Kanyakumari - 66
    Pondicherry, Puducherry - 66
    Tozhudur, Cuddalore - 66
    Nagapattinam, Nagapattinam - 64
    Parangipettai, Cuddalore - 62
    Kodaikanal, Dindigul - 61
    Valangaiman, Tiruvarur - 60
    Jayamkondam, Ariyalur - 60
    Kancheepuram, Kancheepuram - 59
    Mandapam, Ramanathapuram - 58
    Pannimangalam, Thiruvarur - 58
    Chidambaram, Cuddalore - 54
    Mambazhathuraiyaru, Kanyakumari - 54
    Karaikal, Karaikal - 54
    Alangudi, Pudukkottai - 53
    Sendurai, Ariyalur - 53
    Kodaikanal Boat Club, Dindigul - 53
    Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari - 51
    Eraniel, Kanyakumari - 51
    Ariyalur, Ariyalur - 51
    Neivasal, Tanjavur - 51
    Ayyampet, Tanjavur - 51
    Bhuvanagiri, Cuddalore - 51
    Rameswaram, Ramanathapuram - 50
    Kayalpattinam, Thoothukudi - 50
    Kodavasal, Tiruvarur - 50
    Kelambakkam, Kancheepuram - 50

    Above compilation of 2 days rainfall across TN from Cyclone Gaja by Vagaries Rainman Pradeep John

    Posted Saturday 17th Afternoon:

    Position of Re-Emergence of Gaja in the Arabian Sea...

    Current Analysis ----- Deep Depression
         
    Date :  17 NOV 2018    Time :   071500 UTC
    Lat :    9:44:41 N     Lon :   72:32:38 E...East/South of Lakshdweep 
    
    CI# /  Pressure/   Vmax
    3.5 /  998.3mb/   55.0kt
    
    Final T#  3.5     
    Center Temp : -54.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C
    
    
    
    

    Thursday, November 15, 2018

    Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast: 
    Posted:   15 NOV 2018    Time :   11.00 am IST, 053000 UTC
    Position of "GAJA'"
         
    Lat :   11:15:51 N     Lon :   82:21:37 E
    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    3.5 / 995.6mb/ 55.0kt
    Center Temp : -55.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C



    Wednesday, November 14, 2018

    Posted Wednesday Afternoon:Position of "GAJA"

    1130 am : 12.8/84.8 
    Winds: 75-85 gusting to 95 
    Status:Cyclonic Storm


    Tuesday, November 13, 2018

    Posted Tuesday 13th Afternoon:

    Below: GAJA Image at 11.30 am IST Tuesday.
    Estimated Track and intensity ...



    Monday, November 12, 2018

    Posted Monday night 

    "GAJA" will track West /South West as shown. As it enters drier air flow in the west the SCS will weaken after 18 hrs. It will weaken before striking North TamilNadu coast on Wednesday  



    Sunday, November 11, 2018

    The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over  Bay of Bengal lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 11th November, 2018 near latitude 13.5°N and longitude 88.9°E, likely to cross north Tamil Nadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts as a Cyclonic Storm on 15th November 

    Saturday, November 10, 2018

    Posted Saturday night :
    Depression in the Bay just W of the Andaman will likely strengthen to deep depression and then a cyclonic storm by Monday afternoon. Models remain in agreement on storm impacting, S. AndhraPradesh and TamilNadu, including Chennai, late  next week. 

    Friday, November 09, 2018

    Happy Diwali and New year to All the Vagaries Readers and Followers.



    What is Diwali? 



    Diwali is also known as Deepavali or Divali and is a Hindu festival symbolising the victory of light over darkness, good over evil and knowledge over ignorance. 

    The Festival of Lights celebrates Rama-chandra returning to his people after exile. 

    Rama is the seventh incarnation of the god Vishnu. 
    Diwali is one of the most popular festivals in Hinduism, with families gathering to exchange gifts and share feasts. 

    The celebration is also regarded as the start of a New Year. 

    Kelvin-Helmhotz


    Monday, November 05, 2018

    Yesterday evening/night Thunderstorm lashed many parts of western Maharashtra Districts, Ghats section, interior Konkan & isolated part of Marathwada region.

    Some Rainfall ending 8.30am today (05-11-18):

    Ahmednagar Dist data in mms:

    Akole 150
    Rajur 58
    Sakirwadi 48
    Ghargaon 47
    Kopargaon 41
    Kotul 40 
    Dolasane 40
    Samsherpur 39
    Shiblapur 34
    Pimparane 32
    Puntamba 29
    Brahamwada 28
    Sangamner 26
    Virgaon 26
    Samnapur 25
    Aashwi 22
    Sakur 21
    Dhandarphal 20 
    Talegaon 20 
    Wadala 20
    Rawande 17 
    Pohegaon 16 
    Manikdhondi 15
    Shirdi 14 
    Palashi 13 
    Babhaleshwar 12
    Kedgaon 11
    Loni 11
    Sonai 11
    Nalegaon 10


    Aurangabad district:

    Siddhanath 50
    Khandala 35
    Loni 26
    Borsar 24
    Lasurgaon 24
    Ladgaon 20
    Harsul 19
    Vaijapur 15
    Mahalgaon 10
    Shendurwada 10


    Nashik dist in mms:

    Devla 41
    Warkheda 40
    Chalisgaon (Jalgaon) 17
    Malegaon 14



    Ghats & Surroundings in mms:

    Mulshi dam 75
    Wadiwale 50
    Pawana dam 49
    Ahupe 48
    Pimpalgaon joga dam 45
    Khandala 45
    Kamshet 45
    Wadeshwar 45
    Bamnoli 36
    Wadaj 35
    Andhra dam 33
    Chakasman 28
    Davdi 25
    Pratapgad 19
    Matheran 17
    Mahabaleshwar 15
    Manikdoh dam 14
    Dimbhe dam 14
    Kalmodi 13
    Dhom Balkawadi 10


    Interior Konkan in mms:

    Kalkawne 60
    Badlapur 55
    Chiplun 52
    Shirgaon 35
    Hamarapur 35
    Kamrali 28
    Patpanhale 28
    Karjat 26
    Amberi 25
    Dhasai 23
    Dehari 21
    Saralgaon 17
    Sawantwadi 15
    Murbad 15
    Nhyadi 13
    Mandangad 11
    Khed 10



    Some inputs helped by Vagarian Shivkumar
    Rainfall recorded on Sunday Evening/ Night;
    KONKAN & GOA : 11/05/2018: Pen (dist Raigad) 5, Chiplun (dist Ratnagiri) 5, Uran (dist Raigad) 3, Khalapur (dist Raigad) 3, Karjat_agri (dist Raigad) 3, Bhira - Imd Part Time (dist Raigad) 2, Matheran (dist Raigad) 2, Murbad (dist Thane) 1, Mandangad (dist Ratnagiri) 1, Panvel_agri (dist Raigad) 1, Khed (dist Ratnagiri) 1 

    MADHYA MAHARASHTRA: 11/05/2018: Akole (dist Ahmednagar) 15, Vadgaon Maval (dist Pune) 6, Kopargaon (dist Ahmednagar) 4, Lonavala_agri (dist Pune) 4, Sangamner (dist Ahmednagar) 4, Ambegaon Ghodegaon (dist Pune) 2, Chalisgaon (dist Jalgaon) 2, Mahabaleshwar- Imd Obsy (dist Satara) 1, Junnar (dist Pune) 1, Bodwad (dist Jalgaon) 1, Malegaon Camp - Imd Pt (dist Nashik) 1, Velhe (dist Pune) 1, Nashik - Imd Obsy (dist Nashik) 1  

    Mumbai Colaba 2 mms., Dadar 3 mms.(Private)
    Light thunder showers expected in parts of Mumbai on Monday night.

     A cyclonic circulation lies over north Madhya Maharashtra and neighbourhood and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

    Sunday, November 04, 2018

    Posted Sunday 4th morning
    As mentioned, parts of Mumbai got light rains on Saturday. Borivali received traces while Colaba measured 3 mms.
    Pune region also received rain. Lavasa got 20 mms while khandala got 12 mms. Nira dam near pune got  35 mms. Dombivali eastern outer townships received heavy thunder showers  

    Thursday, November 01, 2018

    Breaking : Mumbai Scruz recorded the hottest November day ever on Saturday 3rd today. Touching 37.6c,breaking the previous record of 37.4c set in 1979,2003.
    Rains were reported from Pune, Ahmed nagar and  Eastern outer townships received heavy rains. 

    On Friday 2nd, Good rainfall and snow in Kashmir and H.P. medium rains were received in Uttarakahnd also.
    Srinagar had a high of 8.6c and a Low of 1.8c, with almost 50 mms rains. 
    Gulmarg and other higher reaches and medium reaches had snow...Gulmarg max during day was 0.4c. and a Low of -3.0c. 
    Pahalgam had snow too with the day's high at 4.8c. with 48 mms rain/snow.

    In H.P, Keylong had 32 mms rain/snow with the low at -1.3c.
    Manali had 40 mms rain/snow with the temperature range between 8.2c and 2.2c.

    A cyclonic   circulation   over   eastcentral   Arabian   Sea   and   adjoining southeast   Arabian   sea   &   Coastal Karnataka between 3.1 and 3.6 km above mean sea level persists.


    Posted 1st November Night:

    1. The North East Monsoon has advanced into Coastal TN, Puducherry, South int TN, Coastal A.P. and South Kerala.. An Easterly wave with "setting" E/NE  winds upto 850 levels heralded the advance.

    2. A Low pressure is likely to form in the South Bay around the 3rd/4th of November at about 7N and 95E. It will strengthen and track NW towards the TN Coast. 
    Indications currently show it strengthening and tracking towards the TN Coast. Can cross the coast around 7th. Widespread rains expected in TN.

    3.An active Western Disturbance will bring widespread rains and snow to Kashmir and H.P. on Friday thru the weekend. Srinagar will get cold days this weekend with rainfall.

    4. Moisture laden SE winds will bring weekend showers to Madhya Maharashtra and North Interior Konkan.

    Mumbai: Partly cloudy Friday and rise in night temperatures. Cloudy Saturday with light rains in some parts. Cloudy and stuffy on Sunday with rise in night temperatures.
    Thunder Showers likely in Eastern Outer townships on Saturday and Sunday. Upto 10 mms rain possible on Saturday.

    Pune: Cloudy on Friday, with medium to heavy thunder showers on saturday and Sunday. Rise in night temperatures, weekend days will be cooler.

    Rainfall with thunder expected in Mahableshwar and Lonavala on Saturday/Sunday.
    Light rains likely in parts of Marathwada on Saturday.

    A very interesting article on our region cyclones in Economic Times of 22nd November.  Written and scripted by IITM ( including Vagarian V...