Monday, September 30, 2013

Why Did BB-13 as a system Stall over Gujarat........... an explation by ...



See all  Pics of meeting on Vagaries' Meet Page

Rajasthan and TN Rainfall for SWM...a Comparison on Rohit's Page

The first Note in a series in 2 Parts on the NEM will be on the Current Weather Page of Vagaries by mid-night (IST) Tuesday

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Posted on Sunday, 29th:

SWM withdrawal line drawn earlier cannot be "erased", even though the initial withdrawal parameters over Rajasthan and Punjab had set in. Now, due to meteorological reasons (explained thru video), the retreating parameters have allowed BB-13 to play havoc. 
Having thus confirmed a total "monsoon" setting again over the entire region. The monsoon axis has established over the central India region, and "broadened, thus allowing precipitation to move Northwards towards Haryana and Delhi again.

Now, we have to wait till BB-14 tracks towards Central India. SWM withdrawal is further held up now.

BB-13 is weakening fast, and is situated over Southern Rajasthan. Last of the rains from this system will be in Udaipur and Mt. Abu region of Rajasthan and Palanpur, Deesa in Gujarat.on Monday 30th.

Meanwhile, we must shift to BB-14. Situated on the Orissa coast at 20N. Presently at 1002 mb. System expected to track W/NW.
Monday 30th:Resultant Heavy rains region: Angul, Cuttack and Bhubaneshwar regions. Surrounding regions too get fairly widespread rains.

Tuesday 1st October: Entire region from East Gujarat thru Maharashtra thru Chattisgarh and Orissa get moderate rains. Heavy fall in parts of Chattisgarh and South Eastern MP.
Moderate to heavy rains in parts of Haryana and Delhi NCR on Monday and Tuesaday.
Chance of heavy thunder showers for Nagpur on Tuesday and Wednesday

Wednesday 2nd October, as the system moves, very heavy rainfall expected in the Damoh region and Seoni regions of East MP. Adjoining Gondia region of Vidharbh can get heavy rains. 
.
As the West coast trough strengthens, we see rains again in Southern Saurashtra and then into North Konakn region from Thursday.


Mumbai will continue to get the normal passing showers (with thunder heads by evening) till Wednesday 2nd October. Rainfall and thunder showers increasing from Thursday evening.
Thunder showers will continue till next Sunday at least, pushing the Monsoon season till 8th October at least.


The Table Below, compiled by Pradeep John for Vagaries, shows the colossal amount of rain ( in mms) in Gujarat in the 7 days that BB-13 lingered on...The reason for that is explained in the Video attached here and on the right side of Page.
Date :September 2013

The above Table is also published on Pradeep's Page and in the Vagaries Extreme Blog for future references.

Mumbai Lake Levels and Details of Lake Rains from JayeshMehta. ..28th September 2013...on Mumbai Page

Friday, September 27, 2013

Next 2/3 days forecast for BB-14 will be updated late tonite by mid night (IST)..BB-13 , still surviving, moves East near Udaipur
Follow up :
Heavy rains in the "triangle" mentioned (below) for Saturday. Till 8.30 am IST (Sunday) in cms, 
: Mount Abu­27; Deesa­17;
Idar and Ajmer­11 each; Jodhpur­10; Itanagar­9; Malda­7; Gorakhpur and Harnai­6 each.

Note on NEM will be published on Monday evening at 9 pm...delayed by a day.

Posted Friday Evening:

SWM Monsoon changes mind, and re-tracks into Rajasthan and Haryana... a very rare and unusual happening...axis moves into Central India.
8 days since i started writing on BB-13, and am still going on !

BB-13, is swinging in vertical heights, and due to very favourable conditions and optimum pressure , is still having precipitation capacity, even in its "old age".


Saturday:
From Kutch, where it is situated today (Friday Evening), that too as a low, it will track Northwards into the International border, and move in a Easterly direction for a short distance thence. Rainfall will be heavy on Saturday in the (imaginary) Bachau-Jodhpur- Ahmedabad triangle.
Heavy Rains expected around Region of  Palanpur, Gandhinagar and Mt.Abu. 

Passing rain expected all along the coast from Baroda southwards thru Bharuch and Surat upto Maharashtra coast.Cloudy and showers in places expected all over South and East Rajasthan upto Delhi NCR. Clouds and thunder activity in NCR possible.

Mumbai: Cloudy, and cirro stratus anvils forming (Lightning possible). Passing showers expected.

Sunday: As per Map.
Mumbai: Cloudy and showers , with lightning possible. Rain amount around 10 mms.
Thundery developments in outer townships .

Surat: Cloudy with some light showers on Saturday and Sunday slight increase in intensity possible.
Light showers in parts of NCR.
Thunderstorm again possible in Kolkata on Saturday with around 20 mms rains.

Favourable chances of a thunder shower in Chennai on Saturday.

Demonstrating their forecasting skills, we have many experts and knowledgeable budding meteorologists in our group. Here is a chance for all others to know your views on the following:
Why was the system persisting over Gujarat for 4 days , and why the extra heavy downpours ? Why do we estimate it to move N/NE now ? ...
This will be discussed in vagaries' meet on Saturday, and then published. In the meanwhile, your thought can be put in the comments on the blog/fb.

On Sunday, an introductory note on the NEM and its expectations this year will be published on vagaries blog on the "Current Weather " Page...


Posted Thursday Night:Brief Note for Friday, 27th ...
Friday Estimate: Okka received 270 mms in 9 hrs on Thursday (as of 5.30 pm IST)
The UAC (BB-13) moves N/NE, with centre around the South Rajasthan region. But, rainfall segment will be in the South and SW of system.
Heavy rans are likely in Kutch, Northern Gujarat region and Southern Rajasthan. 
Heavy rains likely in Jamnagar, Deesa, Kutch (Gujarat) and Barmer (Raj) regions.

Mumbai: Friday will be partly cloudy with sunny intervals. Passing showers amounting to around 10 mms.

Rains can increase again in Bharuch and Surat regions from Sunday. Delhi NCR also can get rains on Sunday....more of all this tomorrow (Friday) when the weekend forecast comes up.

Adjoining Pakistan regions of Badin and SE Sindh can get light/modertae showers. Karachi can get showers overnight and early morning. Hyderabad (Pakistan) can get light showers in the vicinity.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Not surprisingly, the heaviest rainfall in last 24 hrs ended Thursday (26th September) morning were in the 3 regions mentioned in our Forecast put up on Sunday last, for Wednesday !

Rajkot City got 392 mms, Jasdan (Rajkot Dist ) got 284 mms and Padhari 178 mms (Rajkot)and Gondal 126 mms to name the few highest. 
In Amreli region, Babra got 284 mms, Dhari 176 mms,Savarkundla 153 mms, Khambha 144 mms and Lathi 114 mms.
Elsewhere in Gujarat, Bharuch got 154 mms (Total 1854 mms), Vagra 170 mms, Hansot 169 mms.
Surat 250 mms,Kamrej 248 mmsChoryasi 222 mms..
Bhavnagar 210 mms.
In Kutch, Mumndra got 65 mms and Abdasa 32 mms.

For easy follow up, refer to Sunday 22nd article before reading.

Brief mid night (12.30 am Thursday) Update..BB-13 associated UAC strengthened at 700 mb, optimum for a good rush of moisture from the SW and ideal for precipitation conditions by forming a stable vortex reaching high.
Colossal rains, ranging between 250-350 mms (highest of 430 mms) in 24 hrs in Easter Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra and Kutch for almost 3 days. (Rain amounts put up by Abhijit)
At least Tuned with the warning and forecast put up on Sunday 22nd for Monday and Tuesday.
After moving into Gujarat (East)on Monday, the system anchored itself there, and  now, the sat. Current Image shows the clouding segment along the Saurashtra coast.Expecting a trough in the SW direction in the Arb Sea tomorrow (Thursday).. Referred to in our Wednesday forecast.

Delhi NCR , Meerut and surrounding regions got the rains expected on Tuesday evening.Some showers were experienced on Wednesday also, in Delhi proper and parts of NCR.  

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Rainfall around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(25-09-2013) :

Santacruz 33.2mm
Colaba 4.2mm
Vihar(Mumbai) 45.0mm
Tulshi(Mumbai) 86.0mm
Alibaugh 3.0mm
Uran 4.0mm
Panvel 28.0mm
Karjat 8.0mm
Vasai 12.0mm
Thane 52.2mm
Bhivandi 55.0mm
Murbad 55.0mm
Shahapur 57.0mm
Kalyan 42.0mm
Ulhasnagar 35.0mm
Ambernath 35.2mm
Barvi(Badlapur) 38.0mm


Some more Heavy Rainfall from Northern Thane District ending 8.30 am today(25-09-2013) :

Malyan( Dahanu taluka) 87.4mm
Dahanu 83.8mm
Talasari 173.0mm
Saiwan(Dahanu taluka) 87.0mm
Talwada(Vikramgadh taluka) 70.0mm
Kasa(Dahanu taluka) 90.0mm
Javhar 35.0mm
Boisar(Palghar taluka) 76.0mm
Safala(Palghar taluka) 44.2mm
Kanchad(Wada) 33.0mm 
Wada 30.0mm
Palghar 39.0mm


Posted by Abhijit Modak

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Heavy Monsoonal Rain lashes North Thane District..

Some Rainfall figures ending 8.30am today(24-09-2013)

Malyan( Dahanu taluka) 274.0mm
Dahanu 267.2mm
Talasari 210.0mm
Chinchani(Dahanu taluka) 179.4mm
Talwada(Vikramgadh taluka) 162.2mm
Kasa(Dahanu taluka) 156.3mm
Javhar 138.0mm
Boisar(Palghar taluka) 131.6mm
Vikramgadh 127.0mm
Safala(Palghar taluka) 125.2mm
Tarapur(Palghar taluka) 122.4mm
Kanchad(Wada) 118.0mm 
Mokhada 116.4mm
Wada 95.0mm
Palghar 89.1mm



Posted by Abhijit Modak

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Please note the underlined warning for Gujarat as per blog article below..see rain amounts in Flash Snippet >>>>>
 after SWM withdrawal from Rajasthan, they may be un seasonal..or..post monsoon...but Kutch we have kept SWM...if you remember, we said we will wait for this BB-13 to go and then withdraw from Kutch...

Surprise Surprise !!! Patgaon takes the Lead from Hulikal - All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.13 to 22.09.13..See Pradeep's Page

Posted Sunday Evening (22nd):

1. BB-13, persisting over MP, likely to weaken on Monday 23rd into an UAC and move West.

Please read below article slowly for day by day forecast and events...as has been worked on extensively for a daily forecast;

Monday 23rd: 
Rains due to UAC over Eastern Gujarat and adjoining Saurashtra Peninsula. Rainfall expected in Ahmadabad also. Rainfall by evening extends to North Konkan.
Places to watch for Heavy rains: Surat Region. Surat region getting heavy overnight rains on Sunday night/Monday morning (35-40 mms). Adjoining coastal region of Gujarat also for heavy rains.

Mumbai: Cloudy, with thunder clouds developing by afternoon/evening. Heavy Showers in many parts of city. Rain amounts ranging from 15 - 25 mms in different areas.
Outer townships, specially the eastern towns, get heavy thunder showers. 
Pune: Getting cloudy and thundery by evening. Showers in parts of city.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy, and getting warmer.
Chennai: A shower can "pop up" in some areas by evening. Very regional and localised.

Tuesday 24th:
A trough extends from the UAC outhwards upto the Maharashtra coast. As the trough forms, a high pressure area tries to establish itself over NW India. This was dislodged by BB-13 earlier.
Hence, would expect rains in parts of Saurashtra and also along the East Gujarat coast and North Konkan.Very light showers (or cloudy conditions) on Tuesday evening or night in Delhi NCR, Ghaziabad and Meerut regions.
Places to watch for heavy rains: Southern Saurashtra Coast.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy and sunny intervals. Thundery developments drifting over city from east. Around 10 mms possible
Outer townships expected to receive showers by evening. 
Pune: Thunder shower likely in some parts by evening.

Delhi NCR: Cloudy and stuffy by night. Day time around 38c. Some light showers expected in the night.
Kolkata can expect a thunder shower on Monday and Tuesday.
Chennai: Partly cloudy and very warm day.


Wednesday 25th: 
The high pressure forms a ridge along Central India and adjoining NW India. The SWM can be said to withdraw from remaining North India upto Western MP on Wednesday. Appropriate announcement will be made on Vagaries on Wednesday.

Wednesday, rainfall persisting and decreasing in the Saurashtra Peninsula.
Probably Heavy rainfall in some parts of Rajkot, Gondal and Amreli regions.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy. Thunder clouds over eastern sky. Showers likely in some parts of city..Rains decreasing.
Outer townships will also get some showers in some towns. Sky clearing late night.
Chennai: cloudy day with showers increasing in frequency by afternoon/evening. Upto 10-12 mms in various parts of city. Rains also possible of same frequency on Thursday.

Thursday 26th: 
With no major reason to precipitate, the sub-continent will have some light scattered showers in the Southern Peninsula.Rainfall increasing slightly in Odisha after Thursday for next 2 days.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy morning and warm. Misty and foggy in the morning. 
Outer townships can experience morning fog. 

Nepal: Kathmandu had a and good spell of rains on Sunday. With 46 mms today, the September total pushes to 113 mms, still lagging behind the normal. But, even after the Monsoon retreats, i would expect the localised thunder showers to continue in Kathmandu for the next 3.4 days. With a daily average of about 10 mms, an boost the monthly total by another 50 mms to near the average normal for this month could expect the nights to drop below 19c next few nights, after refreshing rain spells.

Pakistan: Dry. Getting very hot by Wednesday in Sindh/Balochistan region. Temperatures may rise to 43c in some places.

As I will be away on a trip to Goa, there will be no major article for the next 3 days. My trip will keep me busy, hence only small snippets will be posted, as i will not be able to track the weather. A small write up on Monday before leaving will be published.

Rohit' Page Updated with  Maharashtra and Thane District Rainfall till 22nd September

Pradeep's Page will be updated by Monday 9 am with ALL India Monsoon Toppers

Thursday, September 19, 2013


Updating blog on situation for next 3/4 days by 9 pm tonite

Posted Update on Sunday Afternoon:
BB-13 Stationary over SW Madhya Pradesh at 1000 mb. Winds rushing towards core created a clouding segmant in the West quadrant. As expected, "Rains effecting West coast from Palghar to Gujarat coast'.See here


Posted Saturday Evening:
BB-13 is weakening and moving West. Associated UAC will bring some heavy rains in Marathwada on Sunday.

Strong winds from the West along the North Maharashtra coast till Gujarat will bring heavy rains on Sunday. 
Regions to be affected will be from Palghar to Gujarat border. 
Vasai and Northern outer townships can get some sharp showers on Sunday.
Thunder clouds can develop over Eastern outer townships by afternoon and rain in a few spots. 

Mumbai will be sunny intervals and partly cloudy, with a moderate passing shower by afternoon/evening in some parts, not amounting to more than 5-7 mms. 

Surat will see an overcast Sunday with showers in the day. Some heavy showers  can occur in many parts. Rain amount will be around 35-40 mms by Monday morning.

Sharp showers were experienced in many parts of Delhi NCR on Saturday. This, was indeed , a surprise development for me.
Heavy rains with thunder was reported from many regions and Akshardham recorded 48 mms, while Indrapuram saw 34 mms and Pusa 27 mms. SE winds , with moisture, overriding the system and inter acting with NW winds caused the heavy rains. Resultantly  the winds have shown great variations in the day. Even the interaction of winds caused an directional wind shear, resulting in thunder and lightning in the Delhi region.

The temperature fell from a day's high of 33c to 23c by evening.


BB-13 moving West into Eastern Gujarat..
Several places in East and SE Madhya Pradesh received very heavy rains...Armori & Khandwa 103 each, Khaknar 95,...Desaigaanj in adjoining Vid got 156 mms..Parts of Delhi NCR received showers too....putting up report and latest on BB-13 tonite..

Mumbai Lake Levels and Details of Lake Rains from Jayesh Mehta...21st September 2013...On Mumbai Page
Another set from Kolkata taken by Santosh Subramanian...21st september 2013...on Inte Active Page..My fav. the last one.

x-----------------------------------------x----------------------------------------x----------------------------------x

Posted Tursday Night:
The Low in the Bay, numbered BB-13, has moved West into Orissa. BB-13, will move West, into MP, and  restricted by the high pressure in the North.
It will track thru MP and weaken along its path, 

Friday: Heavy Rains to Watch out for: Central MP. Bhopal Districts.
Saturday: Western MP and adjoining North Maharashtra and parts of Eastern Gujarat.

City Forecasts:
Mumbai: Rainfall intensity and frequency decreasing. 
Friday. Partly cloudy day. Thunder clouds building up in the Eastern sky. Chances of drifting and bringing rain in some parts of city by evening. Rain amount expected: 10-12 mms average.
Saturday/Sunday: Thundery developments in evening, otherwise partly sunny day. Light showers in the evening in some areas. Rains about 5-7 mm/day.

Pune:
Friday: Thunder showers in the evening, lesser intensity, around 10 mms. 
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy and warm day. Almost no rains.

Chennai City: 
Friday/Saturday: Chances of a thunder shower "popping up" in some parts of the city. Regional rains upto 7-10 mms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and warm. 

Delhi NCR: Cloudy and stuffy weekend.
Friday: Sunny, getting cloudy later in the day.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy day, and stuffy nights. Day temperatures around 32c on Saturday, rising on Sunday.

Kolkata: Clearing after Friday.
Friday: Remaining moisture from BB-13 will bring thunder showers in many parts of the city during the day.
Saturday/Sunday: Rains and shower intensity and frequency decreasing on the weekend.

Hyderabad: Heavy thunder shower. Saturday/Sunday: Light rain in some parts of city on Saturday after cloudy day. Sunday will be without any meaningful rains.

Goa: After showers on Friday, rain intensity and frequency decreasing from Saturday for the weekend.

Sambalpur, Orissa (on request): Seeing the developments around, i would predict thunder showers of moderate intensity in the district region. City may also get a shower in the evening, which may be around 15-20 mms.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Mumbai Wednesday Night Storm Video..excuse the poor quality...Taken at Mahalaxmi..between 12.30 am and 1 am..when 23 mms were recorded and Temperature dropped to 22.6c !! ...see here

Posted on Tuesday Night:

Heavy Rainfall Alert: Very heavy rains likely to persist from 19th September - 21st September, 3 days, in South Konkan and Goa. Heavy showers in Kerala continue till Thursday.

Mumbai: Winds are Northerly now, as on Tuesday. Mumbai will get heavy thunder showers on Wednesday.  Some thunder showers in some parts of city on Thursday and Friday, expecting around 10-12 mms /day average. Heavier in Eastern outer townships.
Intensity decreasing on Saturday and Sunday.

Chennai can expect showers on Wednesday, some heavy showers in some parts. Rains around 8-10 mms till Thursday morning. Rains expected again on Thursday night and Friday morning.(about 10 mms average till Friday morning)


Moderate Rains in MP and Interior Maharashtra on 20th and 21st. 
Delhi NCR can get partly cloudy on 20th/21st September. 
Under present conditions, the SWM can furterh withdraw from Haryana, Delhi NCR, HP ,Utterakhand and parts of Western UP by 21st September.

Posted on Monday(16th) Night:

Monsoon Axis has slid to the Central Regions of India. The SWM is expected to withdraw from more regions by Wednesday. 
The West coast trough has activated, and an UAC is forming off the S.Konkan Coast. Due to high pressure building up in the Central India region, a Line of Discontinuity forms in the Central Mah. region . 
The Eastern End of the axis will host an UAC in the Bay by the 17th or 18th.

Tuesday 17th: Thunder storms along Konkan (interiors), Marathwada and Eastern Goa (The ghats region). Adjoining N.I.Karntaka.
Places to watch out for heavy rains: Belgaum district and Raichur District in Karnataka, South Konkan . Kurnool and Hyderabad regions in AP. 
In Maharashtra, Marathwada can receive heavy rains. (Nanded and Parbhani districts).

Wednesday 18th: Precipitation in Coastal Karnataka. Vidharbha gets thunder showers on Wednesday.
Heavy Rainfall to watch in Bellary and Gadag districts.
 Kolhapur, Solapur and Satara District can get heavy rains in some pockets. Some outer townships of Mumbai.

Wednesday 18th :Special for 3 Metros:
Kolkata: Thunder storm in Kolkata on Wednesday.

Mumbai: Tuesday, winds will turn to Northerlies. Evening thunder showers will drift from the East. Wednesday some parts of city can expect heavy rains accompanied by thunder and lightning. 
For those enthusiasts monitoring the official rain amounts for Mumbai, i feel another 50-55 mms (accumulated) possible till Friday 20th.
Outer townships: Thunder showers developing on Tuesday in many regions. On Wednesday, downpours will be heavy in some cities in the Eastern townships.

Chennai: Also in line with the other 2 metro cities, can expect thunder showers on Wednesday.

Pune :Thunder showers in some parts of city on Tuesday 17th, and heavier intensity on Wednesday 18th.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Follow up Post: Monday Mid Day Situation:

1. The Northern WD has ,moved East and is over Kashmir. A trough from the system runs Southwards. In a speedy development (due to various factors), an UAC has formed in the trough situated early morning Monday over Punjab/HP. This has strengthened the trough.


2. As a result, the WD and the ensuing trough has pushed the Monsoon axis into MP and Orissa. The western end of the axis is over Kutch, and running thru MP/Orissa , the Eastern end emerges in the Bay. Wind circulations and axis alignment with the shear show the possibility of an UAC in the Bay by Tuesday.

3. The Western end of axis dipping South into Kutch, has also re-activated the trough off the West Coast of India. This was mentioned in Sunday night article of vagaries. Now, it can be further strengthened by a UAC off the Goa coast soon.

Next report tonite: 
Rainfall in City and around Mumbai ending 8.30 am today(16-09-2013) sent by Abhijit Modak on Mumbai Page 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weather Situation Posted on Sunday (15th) Night:

1. The WD mentioned in Friday's post is moving across the Northern hills and is affecting parts of Northern Punjab (see image as on Sunday evening).

Rains and thunder showers are more widespread in Kashmir and part of Punjab plains. Expecting a fall in night temperatures in the hills. Srinagar and other stations will see a fall in night temperatures. Srinagar may witness a night temperature of 10c or below.

2. The trough off the west coast will strengthen next 2 /3 days. By Wednesday 18th, an UAC (or a weak low) can get embedded in the trough off the Goa coast. Since it will not sustain much, can fizzle out in a couple of days after forming.

3. Some models are showing the formation of a Low in the Bay, off the Orissa coast. Models forecast the formation around the 20th of this month. Vagaries is non committal today, and reserves its view on the formation and date of formation  till the proper formation parameters are clear. Proper announcement will be when and if situation warrants the formation. 
Seeing the current withdrawal position, and high pressure forming over Central India, it may possible that any system in Bay may head towards Bangledesh.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

"Hit and Miss" Showers in some parts of South and parts of Central Mumbai on Saturday night, after a very warm and humid day...

Mumbai Region Rainfall as on Sunday morning 8.30 am: Nana Chowk 56 mms, Grant Road 53 mms,  Byculla 50 mms,  Worli 42 mms,  Vagaries 41 mms,  Colaba (IMD) 37.4 mms, Bandra 20 mms. 
Dadar 10 mms, Scruz (IMD) 5.5 mms, Goregaon 3 mms, Chembur 2 mms, Deonar 2 mms,  Bhandup, Kandivali, Mulund and Malad  1 mm. 

So, concentration was mainly in the South Mumbai region from Colaba to Worli. North, NW  and Eastern parts had almost negligible rains.

No major change in forecast for Sunday (than what is put up below): Warm day, at 32/33c. Thunder showers drifting in some parts by evening. 
In a lighter vein , Maybe, the Eastern and Northern parts of city will get today to compensate yesterday's Southern showers :-)

Posted Friday Night:
SWM withdraws from Rajasthan, Part of Kashmir, Part of Kutch, Punjab and Haryana as per Vagaries..13th September.




And with it the post moonsoon heat !. Bikaner was hottest today in India at 41.7c, Jaisalmer at 40.6c and Bhuj 38.3c.  And across the border, Nawabshah was hottest at 41.5c.
But, Northern Pakistan, now being sweeped by an upper air WD, is getting good rains. Lahore  50 mms, Muree 45 mms, Rawalpindi 43 mms.

The WD is expected to move East and enter extreme Northern India hills. By the way, the Northern hills are having above normal night temperatures, and lows like 16c in Srinagar, 8c in Leh and Gulmarg are too high for this time. Even in the HP mountains, Kalpa at 10c and Keylong at 9c are higher than expected. With the coming WD, nights will get cooler in the mountains.
Western Nepal will benefit from this WD. Otherwise, Kathmandu may still see a warm day at 31c, and partly cloudy skies. Another few more days for the SWM to withdraw and bring cooler nights (currently at 19c).

The axis runs thru central India, and the Eastern coast trough remains moderate.
Weekend, Saturday and Sunday, will see Thunder showers in Madhya Maharashtra, Inner Konkan, Marathwada, Interior TN and interior Karnataka.
Regions of Heavy Rainfall: Southern Madhya Maharashtra, that is Solpur region and adjoining N.I. Karnataka.

Weekend for:
Mumbai: Warm humid day, at 32/33c being partly cloudy. There may ( if at all) be only localised thunder showers in some parts of city drifting from the East. It will be a "hit and miss" chance for some part of city. The rainfall will not exceed 10 mms.
Outer townships: These regions will also get the "hit/miss" thunder showers. Not all the regional townships will get the showers. Rainfall in the affected towns will be around 35 mms/day.
A low pressure is likely to form off the west coast next week.

Chennai: Saturday will be partly cloudy with showers in parts of the city. Average rainfall not exceeding 10-12 mms. Sunday, a thunder shower or two in some pockets of the city. Rains around 7-10 mms on Sunday.

Pune: warm day, thundery developments by afternoon. But rainfall restricted to 15-20 mms/day. 
This week, from Monday to Friday, Pune got good rains. The rain amounts for the week gone by were:( Monday thru Friday)  20.2, 56.5, 9.8, 0.3, 15 mms =  97.8 mms ( For this week, Vagaries had estimated about 75 mms).

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy on Saturday. SWM moves out by Sunday, and days warming up to 37c.

Kolkata: One or two thunder showers. Frequencyof current thunder showers continue in the weekend.




Tuesday, September 10, 2013

 Karntaka: Brief Report of SWM Performance 

Karnataka Top 5 till 12.09.13..( data from Pradeep)
1. Hulikal - 8437 mm 2. Mastikatte - 8107 mm 3. Amgaon - 7988 mm till 31.08.13 4. Suralbhi - 7468 mm 5. Agumbe - 7352 mm

Interior Karnataka rainfall this SW Monsoon is doing well, and is in excess. As on 12th September, S.I.K. is in excess by 35%, having received 344 mms against a normal of 254 mms, and N.I.K. is excess by 13%, having received 440 mms against 390 mms. 

The best part of the rains were in this month (September) itself. N.I.K. received 96  mms so far this month, against a normal rain of 40  mms, thus being 134 % excess for September. While for S.I.K, it was 120  mms against 33 mms and excess of 261 %.

Bangalore (Urban) is doing well this year. Having actually received (till 12th September) 344 mms against a normal of 255 mms (+35%). And Bangalore (Rural) actually got 409 mms against 328 mms, excess of 25%. Best performer is Mandya District, showing 55% excess.
Bangalore Diagram with Daily and seasonal rain:


The overall State average is also +14%.
So, with more to come this month, Karnataka is reaping a good harvest from SWM.

x----------------------------x---------------------------------x-----------------------------x----
New ! Tamil Nadu Climate Averages for 2013..See Rohit's Page


Report posted on Tuesday, 10th:

On Wednesday11th:
The UAC enters the Arabian Sea via Konkan, and can strengthen the West Coast trough (for a couple of days)...
On Wednesday 11th September:

The UAC enters the Arabian Sea in the South Konkan region. Thus, the west coast trough gets activated. 
Another East-West trough at 925 mb level and 850 mb levels, runs from North TN coast to Central Bay.
Thunder showers will occur in Konkan, Madhya Maharshtra, N.I.Karnataka and Northern TamilNadu.
Orissa and Kolkata can get thunder showers on Wednesday.
Regions to watch out for heavy rains: Entire Madhya Maharashtra belt (Nasik-Pune-Kolhapur-Sangli), adjoining N.I.Karnataka, Goa and parts of North TN.

Mumbai: Light showers in some parts early morning. NE winds in the day. By evening, Thunder showers, heavy in some parts. Outer townships will develop thunder storms by evening.
Since these thunder showers are generally localised and in concentarated areas, rainfall amounts will vary upto 30 mms. More in outer townships.

Pune: Thunder showers in many parts of city and surrounding regions. Many areas will get upto 25-30 mms of rain.

Chennai: Thunder showers in some parts of the city and outer regions. Rains may increase from night. Upto 20-25 mms (avg) expected by Thursday morning.

Delhi NCR: As the axis goes South, Easterly winds will prevail over the region. Some moisture may bring a few showers in some pockets in NCR.

Thursday 12th/Friday 13th: SWM may withdraw from some more parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan.
The monsoon axis slides southwards towards the Central India region. With the high pressure at 850 mb, and reducing UTH, it becomes favourable for the SWM to withdraw from regions in Northern and NW India on Thursday.

An UAC/low pressure may form of the North AP coast. This would be embedded in the trough mentioned in the Wednesday narration.

Thunder showers continue on Thursday in Madhya Mah/Goa and int North Karnataka, but on a reduced scale. Konkan will get thunder showers.

Mumbai: Cloudy day, and thunder showers by evening in many parts of city. Decreasing thunder shower intensity in outer townships.

Pune: Thursday will also see showers in some areas, but chances of showers on Friday are less.

Chennai: Thunder showers in many parts , and rainfall amounts increasing over Wednesday . On Thursday, it will be cloudy and daytime showers will keep the day temperature lower. Rain amount will be around 35 mms by Friday morning. Friday some showers again, but rains reducing by night.




Pic taken by Tejas Baxi from Borivali,Mumbai on Tuesday evening

Follow up of Monday and Tuesday weather events:

The UAC is currently over Interior Southern AP, but  the associated upper level trough in the SW, of the system extends upto Madhya Mah.
The trough, is likely to extend  into the Arabian Sea.

On Monday, good rainfall was recorded in N.I.Karnataka. Prominent amongst them were around the region identified by vagaries.
Karadi (Bagalkot, N.I.Karntaka) 165 mms, Hunasgi (Gulbarga, N.I.Karntaka) 128 mms, Kakkera 119 (Gulbarga) 119 mms, Gajendragad (Gadag, N.I.Karnataka) 93 mms, Jegerkal (Raichur) 53 mms.
In Tamil Nadu, Nagapattinum, Thanjvur and Cuddalore regions got good rains on Monday.Chennai, showers by evening/night. Tuesday again, as per estimate, and the rains moved Westwards and concentrated in S.Madhya Mah and adjoining Karnataka, almost obeying the forecast.(Circled Area)


Mumbai and outer townships also got thunder showers. Rains lashed Pune and Mahableshwar.
Details and rain amounts will appear tomorrow...

Sunday, September 08, 2013

SWM has withdrawn further from Punjab and parts of Haryana and Rajasthan on 8th September (as per Vagaries).

The (Bay) UAC very much present and persisting over South AP coast...another UAC over West Gujarat formed on Sunday 8th, and disturbed the wind flow, and brought conflicting winds over N.I.Karnataka and Marathwada...as (attempted by me) to show in map.
Meanwhile, the Gujarat UAC moving away fast. ..and the Bay UAC will resume westwards track from tonite.(see details below map)


Tracking West/North-West, we can expect precipitation :
Monday 9th: Interior TN , with Vellore district and West of this region. Heavy rains also expected in N.I.Karnataka.
Even though system is moving away, Chennai will get Thunder showers on Monday and Tuesday.
Cities to watch for Heavy rains: Vellore, Ambur, Bellary, Guntakal.

Tuesday 10th Night thru Wednesday 11th: More regions get rains further towards the West. South Madhya Mah, adjoing Karnataka, S.Konkan and Goa get rains.
Places to watch for heavy rains: Tirupati, Belgaum, Miraj, Goa, South Konkan (Amboli races ahead).

Tuesday and Wednesday, Pune and Mumbai can get Thunder showers in evening. Lonavala, Matheran and Mahableshwar should receive thunder showers.


What a lovely take by Santosh Subramanian at Kolkata...storm of 9th September 2013...on Inter Active Page

India Climate Avgerages on Rohit's Page


Puerto Lopez in Columbia the New wettest place in the World and revised Top 20 wettest places...See Detailed Report on Pradeep's Page

Friday, September 06, 2013

Weather Synoptic Situation as on Saturday 7th September Evening:

The UAC has moved NW, and is in a more Northern position than expected at 17N off the AP coast. Now in the Bay is moving towards the AP coast, inland, and is strong at 850 mb, but decreasing with height. Tracking Westwards.


The mid level wind shear, the level of the UAC, is tilting towards the NW, and is dragging the main wind shear towards the central region of the system.


This could have been expected, as now upper level winds are high over the Northern Peninsula regions. 
Precipitation is good in the coastal AP and Orissa and some interior regions. Bhubaneshwar got 44 mms and Kurnool received 32 mms till 5.30 pm Saturday.

Naturally, the winds over Chennai will be W/NW, due to its N/NE location, even though the system is not at sea level. Winds have kept humidity comparatively low in the day, and could have prevented precipitation.

With moisture increasing, we can expect more clouding to cover the Southern and SE quadrant soon. In other words, precipitation over Chennai region is possible as expected on Saturday late evening (now maybe night)..
Precipitation over Chennai region can be expected from Saturday night. 

Comet ISON to fly by Mars...read here

x---------------------------------x--------------------------------x------------------------------------x-------------------x
Weather Synoptic Situation as on Friday 6th September Evening:

The Monsoon axis remains weak, and the "seasonal Low" is now at 1004 mb, moving towards 1006 mb in the next 2 days. Hence, 
SWM would withdraw from Kutch and Punjab on Sunday, 8th September. 

1. A North-South trough runs in the Bay, along the 85E line, away from the East Coast of India. A UAC is embedded in the trough, thus strengthening it. The UAC is currently situated in the Mid Sea off the North TN/AP coast.
UAC may descend, or as an UAC, cross the North TN coast on Saturday.(Will be numbered if it is on sea level).

2. The System will track Westwards on Sunday, and should be located around Bangalore. Expected to move W/NW on Monday. As of today, track is Thru Interior Karnataka and re-emerge in Arabian Sea as an UAC off the Goa coast.

Forecast for Saturday and Sunday 7th and 8th Sept: 

For the weekend, Medium to heavy Rainfall Cities: Chennai, Vellore, Bangalore and Davanagere. 

Goa can expect heavy rains on Sunday night and a cloudy and rainy Monday.

Chennai: Rains on Saturday evening, but increasing on Sunday. Sunday will be cloudy with occasional showers and rain amounting to around 40 mms. 

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday will continue with current weather conditions. Maintaining earlier statement, increase in rainfall (thunder showers) after Monday or Tuesday (9th/10th September).

Pune weekend same, but substantial increase from next week. Can expect around 75 mms next (whole) week.

Last Date for Monsoon Contest Entries TODAY.

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Of Special Interest for West Coast Cities...Very Interesting Analysis of West Coast Cities Climate by Rohit...See Rohit's Page

Posted on Wednesday Night:
4th September..The South West Monsoon has withdrawn from West Rajasthan (as per Vagaries' observations).




The Seasonal Low a the western End of the Monsoon Axis has weakened to 1002 mb. Resultantly, the Monsoon Axis itself has weakened. 

The East Coast trough will form in the Bay by Thursday, but move towards the coast by Saturday.

On Thursday and Friday, there may be some heavy rains in parts Northern TN districts of Vellore and Thiruvallur, and adjoining Districts of AP. Coastal AP too, gets heavy rains from the trough.

Mumbai: As usual, cloudy morning, precipitating showers in some parts. Rainfall 5-7 mms.Clearing later, and re-grouping by evening. 
Outer Townships will have same pattern of morning showers. Clearing, and getting Cb clouds by afternoon evening. Rains upto 10 mms.
Some isolated showers in the ghat areas. Rains increasing as mentioned after 10th, Ganesh Chaturthi.

Chennai: Less chances of a rain cloud or TS hitting Chennai these 2 days. Increase in rains on Saturday and Sunday, with Thunder showers precipitating upto 40-50 mms in some areas.

Delhi NCR: Warm and hazy at 37c..with almost clear skies and strong dusty West winds. Night temperatures may drop to around 24/25c.

Surat: Partly cloudy with upto 10 mms rain on Thursday. Decrease in rains on Friday.
Pune: Cloudy in the afternoon and evening. Pleasant mornings at 18/19c.


Bangalore will be partly cloudy with showers in some parts. But a pleasant day at 26c.

Rohit's Page Updated with very Informative Diagram of India's Most Populated  City Averages

Big Bang’s Sound-Like Waves Show Up In Lab Simulation..and Aurora Dancing on the Water...Unique capture..Delight for photographers
See Space News Page

Posted Wednesday Evening @ 6 pm IST
The prevailing UAC in the South Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep Islands has weakened, but has descended and formed a sea level trough off the Karnataka/Kerala coast. This development happens sometimes, and not always assured, but will be temporary and should disappear in 24 hrs.
But, while it will bring rains to the West, hopefully, it should not weaken the corresponding upper trough and off shore trough along the TN coast. Else, we see the rainfall along TN suddenly decreasing.

Sunday, September 01, 2013

SWM Withdraws from Most of Pakistan except the SE corner of Sindh. Indications of further withdrawal from West Rajasthan seem to be on stream.

While withdrawing  as mentioned in Friday's blog, few spots in coastal Sindh got very light rains, and Karachi got traces of rains.
August was good for Karachi, with 107 mms of rains against a normal of 61 mms. In the Northern parts Islamabad got 567 mms against normal of 335 mms, and Lahore 513 mms against a normal of 183 mms. 

Besides this, nothing eventful happening next 2 days for Sub-Continent.
Day temperatures rising a bit in Central Pakistan and Sindh, adjoining West Rajasthan. Nights dropping by 1/2 c in Interior Maharashtra.
Next 2 days, we see some WD precipitation in Northern regions of Kashmir and HP hills.

Please read and decipher below narration day wise.

Monday 2nd Sept and Tuesday 3rd Sept: 
SWM may withdraw fro Western Rajasthan on Tuesday, 3rd September.
Precipitation in Northern Hills. Medium to heavy rains in parts of Orissa, NE States and Parts of Kerala.

Monday and Tuesday:
Mumbai may be having a cloudy morning, with clouds forming in the East. Sunny days with rise in Day temperatures to 32/33c.
Pune and Nasik will be seeing foggy mornings , with clear skies, the nights will be around 18/19c.

Delhi NCR : Partly cloudy days, clear nights. spotty rains possible in some parts. Currently, minimums are around 25/26c, but will drop by a couple of degrees to 23c next few nights. 
Bangalore will be cloudy, with possible evening showers in many parts of city.
Chennai: Hot and humid, with real feel at 40c. Partly cloudy, but stuffy nights.

Wednesday 4th September:
East Coast trough strengthens with a vortex forming off the coast of AP/Northern TN. Rainfall increases along TN coast regions. Thundershowers prevail in interior Karnataka around Bangalore. 

Wednesday:
Chennai: Rain intensity increasing, heavy in many parts of city. Average rainfall amont around 25-30 mms.

Mumbai: Morning will be cloudy, with some rains ( Large Drops) falling in the Eastern suburbs. 
Outer townships in the East can also get some moderate morning showers.
Pune: Thundery developments by evening.

Delhi NCR: (Wednesday and Thursday): Partly cloudy, clearing by evening. Mostly dry and warm at around 37c.
Kolkata: Thunder showers by evening.
Temperatures rise more in Central Pakistan to 42/43c.

Thursday 5th September:
Heavy rainfall increases in Orissa and adjoining Bengal.
In South, rains decrease, but are prevalent in Interior Karnataka. Several storms from Interior TN drift towards coast, and Chennai will see some showers by evening. 

Thursday:
Mumbai: Cloudy morning. Again, some spotty morning shower possible.
Thundery developments over the ghats by evening, and some showers in the Lonavala, Matheran and Mahableshwar regional  ghats. 
Eastern Outer townships may get some light showers drifting from ghats.
Kolkata gets thunder showers by evening.

However, proper scale evening thunder showers can develop and precipitate on the ghats around Mumbai (Lonavala, Khandala and Matheran) and in outer townships from 10th September.

Ganesh Chaturthi: West Coast trough can get activated from the 10th, and bring more rains in West coastal regions and Interior Mah...but more up dates on this later.



Vagaries' Monsoon Contest Opens Again. 
The Rules are the same as the July/Aug contest, and the Places also same.
Only, the fgure now to be filled is the Total Season Rain from 1st June -30th September for the individual Places. No separate September figure is required. ONLY 4 MONTH TOTAL.
New addition is : Highest Rainfall in India...5 Points.
For Details, See "Monsoon Total Contest" Page.

All entries before 7th September..Entries close by 12 Mid Nigh of 7th September.
Rainfall till 31st August given by Pradeep in Comments of main Page and Monsoon Total  Contest Page
Rohit's Page Updated 

Posted 27th May ...Evening: The Low AS-3 has formed off the Karnatak/Kerala coast, as estimated in our 24th post. The Low is embedded in ...