Sunday, June 25, 2017








Mumbai: Monday 26th,Tuesday 27th and Wednesday 28th will see frequent showers, some heavy. Regular monsoonish weather will amount to around 50-55 mms of rain per day.
Eastern outer townships may see a slight reduction in rains from what was experienced on Saturday night.
Northern outer townships will get fairly heavy showers.
Panvel and Roha regions will also get frequent heavy showers, next 3 days, averaging around 50-60 mms per day. 

Delhi NCR will be hot on Monday and Tuesday. Good increasing rains from Tuesday night thru Wednesday.

First massive monsoon spell lashes N.Konkan
Mumbai which missed the spell yesterday night got that in morning period:

Some rainfall in 12 hrs till 8.30 pm IST today in mms:

Vagaries Club 95 mms
Dadar 86 mms
Colaba 65 mms
Santacruz 49 mms

Widespread heavy Rain lashed Thane & Palghar Dist as on 25th Morning

map compiled by Vagarian Rohit Aroskar


map compiled by Vagarian Tejas Baxi

As usual Palghar district shows it's own feature of dragging severe rain.. 

Some massive rainfall in mms of past 24hrs ending 8.30am today dated 25-06-2017 (Above 300):

Talasari 469
Zhari 460
Kanchad 409
Wada 368

Savarkhand 334 
Vikramgad 324
Suksale 320
Khutal 314 

Kasa 320
Talwada 301
Kudus 290


Mumbai Water Supplying Dams also gets massive rain


Below figures in mm ending 8.30am today dated 25-06-2017:


Tansa 340 

Vaitarna 280
Mid vaitarna 220
Bhatsa 180
Upper vaitarna 160
Vihar 90 
Tulsi 70


West Nashik district lashed by heavy rain. Massive rainfall figures of Nashik district ending 8:30 am on 25 June 2017 (Above 100 mm)
Igatpuri 220 mm
Ghoti (Igatpuri) 204 mm
Dhargaon (Igatpuri) 160 mm
Trimbakeshwar 148 mm
Borgaon (Surgana) 120 mm
Welunje (Trimbakeshwar) 104 mm
Harsul (Trimbakeshwar) 101 mm

Extremely heavy rain reported in Valsad district in south Gujarat during last 24 hours ending 8:30am today.
Below figures in mms..
Vapi 480
Silvasa 380
Daman 370
Madhuban 330
Valsad 200



Saturday, June 24, 2017

Posted Saturday 24th Night:
South West Monsoon has advanced into Saurashtra, South Gujarat, Marathwada and North Maharastra.
Off Shore trough along West coast from South Gujarat persists.

Monsoon moves into M.P. on Monday. Jabalpur received 11 mms of rain till 8.30 pm IST Saturday. Rains likely to increase next 3 days.


Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Posted Thursday Night:Latest for Mumbai:
Though we expected the rains to increase pace from Friday, the trend has started from Thursday evening...with Scruz recording 20 mms and Colaba 19 mms till 8.30 pm on Thursday.

Observing the developments, we boost up our estimate ....Friday will see showers increasing with about 40-45 mms , and the rain s continuing on Saturday. The gauge may see more on Saturday, approximately 50-55 mms. Days getting much cooler and pleasant as the day temperature drops to around 30/31c. 

Pune will see light rains this weekend, but a windy and cool Friday.


As mentioned yesterday, Monsoon moving in Northern Chattisgarh, East M.P./East U.P. and East Vidharbh by Saturday...rains increasing from Monday in East M.P.(Jabalpur)

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Posted Wednesday Night:

South West Monsoon has advanced into Southern Chattisgarh. Covering Odisha, South West Monsoon has advanced into Southern Chattisgarh.
The trough at mean sea level from northwest Rajasthan to northwest Bay of Bengal across north Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand & Gangetic West Bengal persists.
Monsoon Likely to move into Northern Chattisgarh, East U.P, East M.P. and Eastern Vidharbh by Saturday.

Off Shore trough along West coast developing, hence expected moderate increase in rains in Mumbai from Friday as mentioned on Tuesday.

Heavy rains likely in Goa and coastal Karnataka.

Lakes Storage for Mumbai lakes as on 21st June: Storage 317 Mcum..that is storage for about 80 days..till September 10th.
Information by Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.
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Posted Tuesday 20th Night:

Mumbai: A moderate recovery revival in rains seen (Not to the fullest extent) in Mumbai from Friday 23rd ...Friday and Saturday may see  a nominal increase in rains, maybe around 15 -20 mms per day. 

However Pune will be partly cloudy with light rains in some parts. No major change.

(On request) Akola region will see light scattered showers next 3 days. No major rainfall over 5 mms.

Saurashtra will also see no major increase in rains next 3 days. Light scattered rains in a few places upto 5 mms.

Massive thunder showers lash West Bengal on Monday 19th: 

Very heavy showers lashed Kolkata on Monday night ( Forecasted for Tuesday by Vagaries), with Alipore recording 94 mms and DumDum 30 mms in 24 hrs till Tuesday morning.
Bankura measured 177 mms, Diamond Harbour and  Cooch Behar 143 mms each. Digha 141 mms.Basirhat 129 mms.

Delhi NCR too had its share of the forecasted heavy rains: Rainfall in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning: Pusa(IARI): 97.2mm, Pitampura: 81mm, Ridge: 72mm, Pusa: 52mm
Meerut: 41mm, Mungeshpur: 40mm, Noida: 30mm, Safdarjung: 27mm, Sonipat: 23mm, Rohtak: 10mm, Gurgaon: 4mm

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Posted Sunday 18th Night:

The rains in Mumbai and Maharashtra , after a modest beginning, have become substantially weak. Vagaries had estimated this decrease in rains last week due to unfavourable upper wind and other factors. In fact the conditions are keeping the Monsoon advance over the Mumbai region in doubt.

Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday see no improvement either. Upper winds, shears and Jet streams seem to be stubbornly anti favourable for further rainfall increase in Mumbai, Maharashtra, Gujarat and M.P. rains next 3/4 days. In fact, no major favourable change ( like divergence etc) seen till Friday 23rd June.

Mumbai: Monday 19th/ 20th Tuesday/ 21st Wednesday will be partly cloudy, hot, and stuffy. A few passing showers in some parts of city. Monday might see a weak  thundery development in the East. 
Outer townships will be also seeing less than normal rains. A few passing showers, maybe a sharp one possible in some parts.

Pune & Aurangabad: Monday thru Thursday: Partly cloudy, with hotter days. Light rain in some parts of City.

Kolkata: Partly cloudy skies and hot days. Few showers in some parts. Thunder showers likely on Tuesday. Day will be very hot touching 39/40c on Wednesday.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Posted Friday Night:

Very heavy showers expected in Delhi NCR from Sunday evening thru Monday...Amount around 90 mms from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning.
Adjoining Haryana may get heavy showers this weekend.
Very heavy rains in adjoining U.P. (Meerut) on Monday.

Posted Friday 16th Afternoon:

1. Mumbai: Rains will  remain weak on Friday/Saturday and Sunday. An isolated thunder cell may drift over some parts of city by Saturday evening/night.

2. Pune will get thunder showers in many parts on Friday/Saturday and Sunday. Cool temperatures expected.

3. Heavy showers expected in Goa and South Konkan this weekend.

4. Rains remain weak in Gujarat this weekend.

5. Heavy rains expected this weekend in Telengana (Hyderabad).


Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Posted 14th Night:
Mumbai: Lakes supplying water to Mumbai show a total storage of 274 Mcum. Usage at 3.8 per day, Mumbai has water for 72 days i.e. upto 26th August 2017....Info by Jayesh Mehta


Posted Tuesday 13th June Night:

A trough has formed in the Northern Plains of India. The trough at mean sea level runs from Punjab to west Assam & neighbourhood across Haryana, Uttar Pradesh & Bihar. Now, this formation ( I had explained it might form in comments), will act as a brake to further progress of Monsoon in the Western section and also in the East. Though initially Monsoon may move into Odisha/South Chattisgarh by 15th June, and then halt for a few days.
Good rainfall likely in Uttarkhand and Nepal next few days. Light showers expected in Punjab/Delhi .Delhi Palam shot up to 43c on Tuesday...

Monsoon progress now halted for a few days in remaining Maharashtra, Gujarat and M.P.

Mumbai:
Wednesday/Thursday/ Friday: Not much increase in rains. Partly cloudy with few showers in some parts of city. About 5-10 mms per day of rain.

Pune:
A moderate thunder shower expected on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will see a few showers in some parts. Friday shower may be heavy in some parts.

Monday, June 12, 2017

According to Vagaries, Monsoon has moved upto South Konkan. 850 and 700 upper winds not conducive for N.Konkan. 700 winds are easterlies. North of Mumbai, 200 jet streams are Westerly.
Shall put up Mumbai forecast tonite




Posted Monday 12th June Night :

A huge Thunder Cell moved over Mumbai from the North-East on Monday night. Heavy rains from the cell and a strong downdraft brought cooler temperatures as the temperature in South Mumbai dropped from 28.5c at 9.30 pm to 24.5c by 10.15 pm.

Meanwhile, South West Monsoon has moved into South Konkan. 

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Posted Saturday night:
Mumbai rains may remain weak for a couple of days after Sunday.
Monsoon arrival may be delayed by few days.
Pune may receive a thunder shower in some parts on Sunday.
Ahmadabad: Chance of a Thunder shower on Sunday, with gusty winds.
Delhi NCR: Next 2/3 days will be very hot, re touching the 44c mark.



Thursday, June 08, 2017

Posted on Thursday 8th Night:
As mentioned in Vagaries on 6th June, SWM has advanced into Coastal Karnataka and Interior Karnataka on 8th June

Monsoon may advance into South Konkan by Saturday 10th and into North Konkan (including Mumbai) by Monday/Tuesday 12/13th.
Heavy showers expected in parts of Saurashtra on Friday/Saturday and Sunday. Average around 15-20 mms in towns.

Mumbai Outlook:
Friday 9th: Cloudy, with a few showers and heavy by evening. Rain amount approximately 20-25 mms.
Saturday 10th: Cloudy and showers, with thunder in the evening. Rain  amount approximately 25 mms. Heavy showers expected in Outer townships.
Sunday 11th: Partly Cloudy with few showers.  A temporary decrease in rains , before the rains resume on Monday.

Pune:
Light Passing showers in parts of Pune on Friday. 
Saturday will be cloudy with some showers/thunder shower in parts of city. 
Rainfall increasing on Sunday with heavy thunder shower.

Heavy showers expected in North Konkan town of  Roha on Friday/Saturday evening and decreasing rains on Sunday.

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

The Official Valid Entries for Monsoon Contest have been put up on the Contest Page...please check your entries again and let me know before mid night 8th June if there are any errors differing from your entered figures.. Only mistaken figures from your entries will be corrected within next 24 hrs..No changes will be entertained.

No fresh entries will be taken now.

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Posted Tuesday 6th June Night:

Vagaries had announced Monsoon covering Kerala on 5th June....Monsoon will advance into S.I. Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka by 8th June ...
Kerala Data from PJ:
Mumbai City:
Light showers in Mumbai on Wednesday late afternoon/evening...around 5-10 mms.
Hot sultry weather will be better from Thursday, as day and night temperatures will show a marginal fall...Heavier thunder showers on Thursday, with rainfall upto 20 - 25 mms. 

Pune: Light showers in parts of city on Wednesday and Thursday. Day around 33c and night temperatures will be 23/24c.

Hot Nights: 
Minimum temperature in Delhi S'Jung was 34.2c on Tuesday ! Gurgaon was minimum at 34.0c, Ludhiana 33.8c, Chandigarh 33.6c and Rohtak saw a minimum of 33.0c. Una in Himachal saw a low of 29.8c and even Shimla was minimum at 20.9c !

Sunday, June 04, 2017

Posted Monday 5th Night:
According to Vagaries, South West Monsoon covers Kerala..
Rainfall as on Monday Morning :

Low Pressure in West Central Arabian Sea will move towards South Oman.

Mumbai and Outer Townships.:
Monday and Tuesday will get the late thunder shower in some parts. Around 5-10 mms in these parts.
Wednesday will get heavier thunder showers by evening, with more widespread rains, could be upto 25-30 mms in some areas.

Warmer days in Saurashtra on Monday and Tuesday.

In Pakistan , on 4th June, Noorpurthal and  Bhakkar were very hot at 52°C. New record for Dera Ismail Khan when the town touched 51c on 4th June, breaking its previous record of 50c recorded in 1986.


Max informs: In Oman, Joba (31st May) and Qurayyat (30th May) both touched the Omani record for the highest ever temperature for the country...They both were at 50.8c.


By Popular demand, Vagaries has Re Started the contest to predict the expected  rainfall  for 2 Months of SWM 2017....see details on Monsoon Contest (June/July) 2017 Page

Thursday, June 01, 2017




PRE MONSOON RAINFALL REPORT (1-3-2017 TO 31-5-2017)
TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD 128.4 mm
NORMAL rainfall during this period 131.5 mm
DIFF +/--2%
TOP 10 SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL RAINFALL 
SUBDIVISIONACTUALNORMALDIFF
ARUNACHAL PRADESH824.5750.410%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA689.1590.217%
Nagaland Mizoram Manipur Tripura589.2494.119%
SHWB & SIKKIM418.1457.1-9%
A & N ISLAND417.1465-10%
KERALA354.6379.7-7%
JAMMU & KASHMIR280.2326-14%
LAKSHADWEEP247.7232.47%
UTTARAKHAND205.615632%
HIMACHAL PRADESH205.5244.9-16%
BOTTOM 10 SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL RAINFALL
SUBDIVISIONACTUALNORMALDIFF
HAR. CHD & DELHI21.834.2-36%
CHHATTISGARH20.546.8-56%
EAST RAJASTHAN20.117.416%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA17.937.8-53%
VIDARBHA13.430.9-57%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH13.225.1-47%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH8.413.5-38%
MARATHWADA830.3-73%
GUJARAT REGION0.26.7-97%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH0.14-96%
TOP 10 SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL
SUBDIVISIONACTUALNORMALDIFF
WEST RAJASTHAN3319.173%
BIHAR124.877.561%
UTTARAKHAND205.615632%
S. I. KARNATAKA192.1145.232%
KONKAN & GOA47.937.229%
Nagaland Mizoram Manipur Tripura589.2494.119%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA689.1590.217%
EAST RAJASTHAN20.117.416%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH824.5750.410%
LAKSHADWEEP247.7232.47%
BOTTOM 10 SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL
SUBDIVISIONACTUALNORMALDIFF
WEST MADHYA PRADESH8.413.5-38%
TELANGANA34.356.8-40%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH5297-46%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH13.225.1-47%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA17.937.8-53%
CHHATTISGARH20.546.8-56%
VIDARBHA13.430.9-57%
MARATHWADA830.3-73%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH0.14-96%
GUJARAT REGION0.26.7-97%
source :IMD