Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Temperatures recorded on 30th. November 2010:

Hottest in Asia: Makkah: 36c,
Mumbai Colaba: 34.7c.

Coldest in India: Shyok (Ladakh): -22c,
Leh: -10c.
Coldest in plains of North India:Churu (Rajasthan): 5.8c

Coldest in South India;
Plains: Raichur: 14c, Hills : Kodaikanal: 6c

Coldest in East India:
Plains: Baghdogra: 11c, Hills: Darjeeling: 4c

Coldest in Mah.: Nasik and Mahableshwar: 16c.

Coldest in U.S: Fort Yukon (Alaska): -41c, Garden River (Alberta): -25c, Logan Cache and Milford (Utah): -25c.

Coldest in Europe: Totma (Russia): -37c, Roros (Norway): -27c, Samedan (Switzerland): -24c, Kramfors (Sweden): -22c,
Coldest in U.K: Inverness: -14c.

Coldest in Greenland: Constable Pynt: -11c.
Latest on U.K. Cold Wave on Mark's Blog.
Great Britain CRIPPLED by record-breaking Arctic blast
Read in detail about the chaos in U.K. on our Partner's blog here.

Daily mail link with spectacular pics (taken from Mark's blog).

Sunday, November 28, 2010

See more on this topic from the U.S. side on International Weather Page updated on 30th. November.
Screaming Headlines Throw Out "Global Warming" Hype:

As is known, Vagaries has always been a resolute dis-believer in the so called GW theory. Yes, there's nothing like GW, and its always been the ups and downs of the natural weather patterns. (Have written several blogs on this, against this, to prove the point. Could be refered to in the Vagaries archives of December 2009).

Now, this year, we have cold waves from many parts of the Northern hemisphere.

I'll just put up the headlines of these, instead of a detailed write up.

Record snowfall in 12 states - 23 Nov 10
NV, OR, SD, UT, WA, WI. Total Number of Records for November 23, 2010. New records: 85 + Tied: 12 = Total: 97

Fierce Record Cold Spreading over
Western Two-Thirds of U.S. - 24 Nov 10
Record lows in California - 24 Nov 10

Further, from Our Partner Blog:
Several UK locations have reported their coldest November temps on record.
Snow: A shepherd looking for his flock wades through deep snow on Commondale Moor in North Yorkshire as freezing temperatures grip Britain (Image courtesy of The Daily Mail)

WALES: Llysdinam, Powys reported -18C (0F)
SCOTLAND: Loch Glascarnoch, Highlands reported -15.3C (4F)
ENGLAND: Shrewsbury, Shropshire reported -12.5C (10F)
NORTHERN IRELAND: Lough Fea, Co Tyrone reported -9.5 (15F).....Read more in detai on U.K. severe cold on Mark's Blog here.

And the topper, of them all, another IPCC Fantasy thrown out..down the .....

Sea level rise about the thickness of a dime per year:
25 Nov 10 - According to new GRACE satellite results, world average sea level rise is about 1 millimeter per year, or about 0.04 of an inch.

"The low end of IPCC forecasts is about double that at 1.9 mm/year," says Steven Goddard. "Hansen has been talking about 30+ mm/year. Once again the experts demonstrate that they have no clue what they are talking about."

Consisting of a pair of satellites moving in an orbit that takes them over the South and North Poles, GRACE stands for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment.

One millimeter is about the thickness of a dime. Take 100 dimes, stack them on top of each other, and that's how much sea level should rise in the next 100 years. Four inches. Four INCHES!

And, If the results hold up to scrutiny, then that’s a big chink in AGW alarmism.

Ocean temperatures are plummeting and are below normal.
See any red? or even Oranges ?? And, remember, oceans consist 0f 75% of the Earth's surface. Looked at ocean heat content figures lately ? They’ve flat-lined since 2003! A check of recent satellite sea-level figures is revealing too!
Levels are now only a fraction above minimums in 2003 and given current cooling trends may even drop below them shortly!

Don't go by the media reports, my friends, they are only doing their job, hype up things, hype them totally out of proportions !!

Space News Page Updated.

Thought it fit to re-produce this very interesting weather fact from Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather:

309,959,570 Lightning Strikes in Six Months:

Vaisala, the original lightning detection company that I have profiled before, sent this map showing nearly 310 million lightning strikes on Earth (specifically 309,959,570, they tell me) in the last six months via their Global Lightning Dataset:
The map looks similar to those from NASA's satellite estimates, but because it's only 6 months of data, it doesn't line up perfectly, and these are ground-based, not satellite sensors.

Friday, November 26, 2010

What happened in November ?

Unusual rain prevailed across the central and western parts of the country (besides the normally expected southern regions).
The last 15 days gave a good preview of what can happen with un-symetrical weather patterns. Much of W.Maharashtra/Goa/coastal Karnatak/Rajasthan had 24 hr. soakings measuring between 30-100 mms in places: just to show what a good low can do!

The (un)favourable weather patterns which has been building had held sway, particularly, in the western parts of the country and with the ability, intermittently, to expand its influence to the north-west, but unmatching of what would be considered a typical scenario for November.

At the same time reflecting the ability of the persisting La Nina in the Pacific to influence our local early-season cloud patterns. La Nina offers both strengthened anticyclonic presence and influence in the South Pacific. The inability to pick more surface-layer moisture and proceed inland, where southern India is concerned,is made apparent.

What had been observed was the gradual shift to the west of the rain-belt. One can say that this is not typical sample of “November” weather, as normally in November, the rain pattern builds and extends across the interior of southern states from the eastern coast, reacting and responding to daytime heat creating and sustaining a weak area of low pressure above the interiors of southern India.
Also typically un-November, this development was subject to considerable push from the south west (along the west coast ) by systems from the Arabian Sea, as these battled with the anticyclone in Northern India.

What’s coming?
Overall, the favourable weather pattern seems to be returning to normalcy from the weekend.
Early next week there is a tendency for the prevailing pattern to retreat as Northerly to North-Westerly winds are setting in over Northern Sub-Continent. Later on,. by midweek, the outlook improves and colder air could settle over the NW region of the sub-continent.

No W.Ds seen coming to Northern Sub-Continent region in the next 5 days at least.
With no interfereance now from the southerly systems, W.D.s are welcome to return, and usher in the North Indian winter.

In the south, the low has formed in the Gulf of Mannar, and the incursion of moisture as a result will bring in precipitation into T.N. riding on the easterlies.

Check Mumbai Weather Page for Forecast.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Continuing from yesterday, the rains decreasing along the western sector has started, and the increase along the east coast is becoming effective.
The low anticipated in yesterday's write-up in the east has formed off the east coastof Sri lanka.

Heavy rains are recorded in T.N. as a result of the easterly wave.
Some of the heavier falls in cms: Pamban 16, Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt) and Rameshwaram (Ramanathapuram dt) 11 each, R.S.Mangalam (Ramanathapuram dt), Ramanathapuram and Tondi 9 each and Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt) 7.

See International Page for big freeze in U.K.
Flash From Partner's Blog. Read the full story on the Blog here , and always put up in the Link on the Home Page.

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan


Record low of 14 degrees for Nov. 24 recorded at Sea-Tac Airport
The Seattle Times

Interior Norway and Sweden enduring -10 to -19C daytime maximums, nights dip to -32C!
Great Britain begins to feel those Arctic winds blow, conditions set to worsen with first the snow, then the cold

By Mark Vogan

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

The low pressure area over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat Region has become less marked, and the pressure measures 1008 mb.

The UAC previously over south Kerala and neighbourhood now has has merged with the above system.

With this, as we witness the Arabian Sea systems now fizzling out, a marked decrease in rains in Mah and Gujarat.

But, a marked increase in rains is on the anvil. In the east. A low is expected to form by tomorrow, off the T.N. coast, and, as a result, the state's coast shall receive copious rainfall from tomorrow. Chennai is also in for some heavy rains from Thursday evening.
The low will ride on an easterly pulse, and travel west, across T.N. and precipitate rains over Kerala as well on Friday.

Mumbai weather page updated.

The 2 back to back lows from the Arabian Sea has resulted in heavy moisture incursion and clouding from the SW into Rajasthan, Gujarat and Central India causes day temperatures to drop. Lower by 10-12c below normal for the day.

yes sir ! Vagaries mumbai forecast results quite accurate, for Tuesday evening thunder showers and pre dawn rain on wednesday!

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Some weather pics, cumulus thunder clouds build up, taken in Goa, on 18th. November/19th. November. Rest of the trip pics in Goa link on the right of this blog (for those interested).
From our Partner Blog: Severe cold coming to U.K..read on International page of Vagaries.

For the Northern regions of the sub-continent, its still "winter-in-waiting".

With no W.D. to bring in the winter snow and rains, the temperatures remain above nornmal.

A W.D. is in normal terms a cold front. Its cold air pushes the prevailing warm air over the region, causing condensation and cumulus cloud formations are seen as the W.D. (front) approaches a region. Soon due to quick cooling and fast cloud formations caused by the pushing upwards of the air, there are violent hailstorms and heavy snows in the Northern regions.
Then, in a typical W.D, the skies clear within 2 days, and the rear of the front is cold and dry.And these cold dry winds blow southwards towards central India.
But all that is yet to be seen in the North. Like I said, due to absence of the stronger cold dry northely winds,the current rains are "taking over"the western/central regions, and allowing the systems from the Arabian Sea to push in moisture into central and northern India.

The lowest temperatures in the extreme North are not typically "cold waves" like.
Leh touched -5c yesterday, which is 3c above its normal. Kargil was -3c yesterday and Srinagar has been around 2c for the past week. Much above what could be seen end November.Gulmarg ski resort was at a "warm" 2.1c and Pahalgam 's night was -1c. Qazigund and Kokernag recorded minimum of 1.5c and 2.9c.
However, the coldest place in India yesterday was Darbuk (Ladakh) at -18c.

Delhi around 14c is 4c above, and Jaipur at 15c is 5c above. Simla saw 9c, still 3c above normal.And Udaipur was 18c, being above by +8c.

Across the border too, the nights are not cool enough to call it a good winter. Islamabad 7c, Lahore 10c, Quetta 2c, Karachi 17c, Peshawar 8c are all above normal.
This temperature anomaly map shows most of the sub-continent in the above normal regions.

And. its because of this, absenve of W.D.s that the systems from the south are having a field day !

Whats happens next? A real good strong W.D, is needed to bring the winter back, but, do not see one in the next 4/5 days at least.

Meanwhile, as anticipated by vagaries, the low in the Arabian weakened to 1008 mb as on Tuesday late morning. It shows some clouding across south gujarat and north Mah. coast, and as mentioned in the blog yesterday, I expect it to fizzle out in the sea.
More on this later today.

Sorry for the break in the blog, had excused myself for this trekking and camping breal in the western ghats of Goa. Tired and spent out, i write this brief note on the present situation, and shall not deal with the weather of the past 4 days.

yes, as Junaid and emkay have informed us, there was some really heavy rains in panvel and Khargar, with Panvel IMD recording 6 cms. (Junaid feels it should be much more). And on the way (by bus) from Goa on Sunday night/Monday morning, I saw a continuous signs of precipitation r
ight from Poladpur thru New Mumbai.
The low pressure area over east central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea, now at 1004 mb, persists. It is suorrounded by a larger area elongated belt of 1006 mb. Now, the UAC associated with this extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.or 700 hpa level.Meanwhile, the trough that this low was embededin from Lakshadweep area to the centre of the low pressure area has become less marked. But, this low has pushed in moisture into Gujarat, M.P, Delhi and Rajasthan.
I think this low will not cross the coast at all, but will actually fizzle out in the sea by Wednesday.

Rains along the west caost, and north Konkan belt for a day on Wednesday, before tapering out from Thursday. Meanwhile, another UAC lies overLakshadweep area.
For the weekend estimate, I'll watch the UAC in the southern Arabian Sea.

On the 20th. an W.D. interacted with the inflow of moisture, and precipitated snowfall in H.P.
But, since this snow, and some light rains in Rajasthan were as a result of a system from the Arabian Sea (and not a W.D.), i dont expect any meaningfull fall in temperatures in the North, as is generally associated with rain and snow.

Mumbai Forecast on Mumbai Weather Page.
See inter active page for lightining hit in Mumbai harbour.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The ageing UAC, still trying to survive, is now moving further Northwards towards Delhi. As a result, it is as yet able to attract SW winds and moisture, causing, or about to bring, good rains in Rajasthan and Delhi.

The UAC in the southern peninsula, is moving fast towards the west, and should emerge as a pulse in the Arabian Sea tonite.

Good rainfall expected in Mah. Friday/Saturday.
IMD statement today: "Yesterday’s U/A Cycir over West M.P now lies over East Rajasthan and adj. areas and extends upto 0.9 Km. a.s.l".
IMD confirms vagaries forecast !

Current System Update:
"System will cross as a depression, maximum it can cross as a DD".That's what vagaries had anticipated for the current low in the Bay.
Crossed T.N. coast today (16th. Nov) as a well marked low ! System was encountering resistance from shear winds since the last 2 days.And unfavourable developments were noticed since yesterday.
At this rate, will it survive its travel thru the peninsula land ? Can it emerge again in the Arabian Sea ?
Possibilities are 50-50. Since the movement is rapid, and comparitively fast, it may just survive a re-emerge.
On the happening of it appearing in the Arabian Sea, west coast is in for rain from Thursday.
Even otherwise, moisture spreading in the interiors can precipitate some rains in interior Karnataka and Mah.on Thursday/Friday.

I would maintain the Mumbai forecast as put up yesterday, Monday, 15th. November.
all views and forecast estimates as per the synoptic scene today.

I will be away camping in the Wildlife Sanctuary – Tambdi Surla & Mollem and Maina Lake, Goa, from Wednesday thru Monday. A breif update will be put up on Wednesday afternoon. Next full blog will be put up on Monday night.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Sharp fall in Mumbai temperatures in a short time span. From 28.3 c at 7.30pm to 25.0c at 8.30 pm at Breach Candy, and from 28.0c to 23.0c in the same time span at S'Cruz.

Mumbai Forecast put up on Mumbai weather page.
Squally winds in South Mumbai from 7pm to 7.45 pm.Later, drizzling has now turned to heavy rain, with thunder/lightning.Shall follow up later.
Very heavy thunderstorm with hail just reported from Goa.

Our readers say it all.
Heavy and violent thunderstorms reported from Western Mah. and from the Ghat regions during the weekend. As soon as Vagaries gets any feedback, its put it up to update the readers of the newest and first hand developments. Nt mentions a paper clipping stating thunderstorm in Bhuj, Kutch. Bhuj received 18 mms yesterday, and 40 mms today, taking the Oct/Nov total to 130 mms.Chennai is 258 mms in the same period !
And I try to reason out this un-seasonal weather behaviour, to the best of my knowledge.

But it boils down to one thing for sure, as emkay puts it, absence of W.D.s. In the blog on " Where is the North India Winter" on 9th. Nov, I mentioned this lack of W.D.s as the main reason for all this topsy turvy.
As I said, systems from the bay have a "field day" due to non resistance, and merrily move NW into Central India or re emerge in the Arabian Sea and move North.

The remnant UAC lingering over the region of North Mah. is expected to hang
on today, but shift its activity to the central regions of India,with a weakening effect somewhere near west M.P. and east Rajasthan by Tuesday.

Latest Upper Troposphere Humidity also shows a reduction over the Mah. region.Thus clearing the way for sane weather conditions for Gujarat and Mah. from Tuesday onwards.

But not for long !! The well marked low, now in the Bay, ie expected to be in a bit of a hurry to hit land. So before it can form into a cyclone, I feel it should strike T.N. by 17th, maximum as a DD, and travel inland.
Where ?? You've guessed it ! It will travel the path of the existing weak trough, dropping into the Southern Peninsula, and move into South Karnataka thru interior T.N, and thru Kerala/Karnataka back into the Arabi
an Sea. By the 19th, it should re emerge. Again, no W.D.so,make hay !

And that's when the action can start again, for Mah. If there is no holding
back, (read no W.D.) it can move North along the west coast. (Though forecast models deny such a course today).

In that case, precipitation will start from Goa/S.Konkan/South Mah. on 18th. itself, and Goa could be "in its way" again, so more rains there.
Western Mah. can receive precipitation from 19th./20th.
And in that case, Mumbai,rain coming for the weekend.

Detailed 4 days Mumbai Forecast by evening.

Very heavy thunderstiorms were reported today, especially from western Mah. As Ashish, Shiraz and Junaid report, the rains were widespread all over the region.
Yesterday, Jalgaon had very heavy rainfall of 84 mms.
I would attribute this continuing phenomena to the presently prevailing moisture inflow since the remnant low barged into saurashtra. Moisture is still hanging around due to the "sticky" UAC in the
region. (See maps).
Moisture still precipitates rains due to the Upper Troposphere Humidity, enriched by the system, and the favourable lifting index in the region is causing violent thunderstorms.(Map). This pushes the cumulus clouds to penetrate the upper atmosphere, sometimes up to 40,000 feet, and result in 2 layer lightnings within a cloud, and from cloud to ground.
On penetrating the upper atmosphere, these thunderclouds form anvils, and turn into cirrus clouds, which with the jet stream in the upper most layer of the atmosphere, move towards the west (along with the jet stream), and which is visible over the sky of Mumbai.

For those Travalling to East Europe, or U.K.the "International Page" has been updated with Mark's latest. See details of Marks page in the link on the home page or here.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Reports of rain/Thunderstorms today (Saturday) evening received from many cities of Maharashtra. Definite Reports of thunderstorms have come in from Pune, Nasik, Kopergaon, Nagpur, Wardha, Satara, Karjat and Lonavala.  

Seems the clouding of "erstwhile remnant of erstwhile Jal" is persistant and far too sticky, on the western front. Now, it has crept upto Delhi region, and Delhi is receiving rains from 11.a.m. today. Some areas have measured upto 18 mms in 90 minutes.
There goes any hopes of winter recovering next few days in Delhi !Minimum today 18c (+6).

Friday, November 12, 2010

A lot was expected from Cyclone Jal for a good revival, or should I say commencemnt, of the NEM.
But, short of hitting the East coast of India, Jal started its anomalous behaviour.
Short of striking the east coast, on the 4th. of November, it met with wind shear resistance, and started weakening, and struck the coast as a DD on the 7th.
A dryish DD ! The rain precipitation was nothing much, and lasted just for barely 12 hrs. Within 10 hrs of landfall, we were searching for Jal !
On re emerging in the Arabian Sea, on the 9th, its performance was again "unworthy" of the season. It did justice with fairly good rains along the west coast ! Karwar with 207 mms in 24 hrs was the highest. And several places in Goa and Konkan had 80- 150 mms.
Then it entered Saurashtra, where actually the people are looking to dry weather, lest their winter crops get damaged. But, on the 11th, it rained 60-70 mms in the desert region of Kutch and Jaisalmer.Central India too received heavy thundershowers.
Not to mention Mumbai, which has been receiving frequent rains from Diwali day. Today, 12th.Friday, there was drizzling in Mumbai.

And, the clouding, spreading north, has practically thrown the winter in the region for a toss.High day and night temperatures, up to +10c above normal are recorded in the NW.
No W.D. seen for NW soon.

And, the south, T.N. and interior Karnataka, are still awaiting a proper commencement of the NEM. All hopes on another system from the Bay.
Nothing in sight as on today, and no system formation seen till Monday, at least. I only hope the expectations of a good system doesnt fizzle out.
I mention this, as I see an Easterly wave. a mild one, coming towards the T.N. coast by Monday (15th.) . This would only mean a longer wait for a regular system.

"Did You Know" page up dated.
Jal and remnant off spring upsets the current weather all over central and NW India.. Major rise in night temperatures last 2 nights in Mah. central India and NW India.All due to moisture incursion all over this region from remnant of Jal and UAC.Lows in Jeur in Madhya Mah. +10c above normal, and Aurangabad +9c.above. Mostly all between +3c - +6c. Today, Rajasthan cities also +10c above normal, and Delhi +5c at 17c ! All NW +5c - +8c above ! Rainfall heavy with thunder in Central India and Vidharbha on Thursday. 60 mms in Indore, 41mms in Bhopal. 48 mms in Chandrapur and 40 mms in Nagpur ! These are amongst the heaviest on Thursday. On Thursday again, Heavy downpours in Saurashtra/Kutch. Nakhtrana-70 mms, Bhuj-60 mms, Kalyanpur-50 mms Ranawav-40 mms.

UK Latest Weather From Partner Blog on International Page.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

The low over Saurashtra has now fizzled out. But I expect the clouding over Gujarat and North konkan to linger on till the weekend.
This is mainly due to the resultant UAC which will form over the region and persist for a couple of days.
Would expect more cloudiness than rain in the Gujarat /Mah region till the weekend. Light rains in some areas of the 2 states and South Rajashtan could be expected.Some residual precipitation may occur on the Sindh coastline (eastern end).

There were some queries regarding the estimated new system to form in the Bay. Vagaries is always cautious, and will chase and follow the projected low after it forms and enters the Andaman Sea. At the moment it is nowhere in sight !
In fact, for this weekend, I see the rains diminishing in intensity in the central peninsula and coastal A.P/North T.N. coasts.

Mumbai Weather page updated with forecast.Space News also updated.

The system in the Arabian Sea, now a well marked low , at 1012 mb, entered land at the Saurashtra tip at 21.4N and 71.3e around noon today. It has pulled away all , or whatever little moisture was present in its rear, thus clearing the Konkan coast.
Expect a few thunder cells to pop up along the northern tip of the western ghats today.

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Where has the Northern Winter Dissappeared" ?

It came with a bang, and brought good early rain/snowfall to North India. But, winter is now whining, and seems to have lost all its nip and cold.
In the first week of October, as soon as the SWM started its withdrawal, the W.Ds held sway, and set about taking control of the Northern Sub-Continent. If you remember, the North had 2 good W.D., back to back, as soon as monsoon showed signs of retreating. Snow, rare first snows of October, was seen in Kashmir, and in the higher and lower ranges of H.P. Snow even blanketed the Gharwals in October.
And the temperatures started to fall in the Northern regions and Central parts. Lows of 10c were reached in Punjab and Delhi and Rajasthan started feeling the Northern winters.Hills plunged to freezing and below.
So far so good.

But then the SWM changed its mind and refused to go away. Staying put around the Mah. region. And not allowing the W.Ds to form.
In fact, the sytems from the bay started moving in, as if it was the monsoon time. T
he first depression of the season came in October !
Where's the place for our W.Ds ?? Another system from the Bay forms a cyclone , and they
carry on from the Bay.
Systems pushing up clouds and warm air into the Northern areas, instead of restricting themselves to the southern peninsula, and mocking the prevailing north-westerlies all the way. And its still on ! A remnant from "Jal" is moving right into Gujarat !

The temperatures are high for this time, the nip is all but gone and the snows have melted away. Its back to ...not summer, but September climes for the Northern regions. Nights are up
by 9c
above normal in places, like Allahbad..in fact all over its 6-8c above normal..check on the list here. Days are in the low 30s !
Last week's temperature anomaly map shows it all.

Whats happeninig next? For the next 5 days, at least, I do not see any W.D. coming to "re-install" the winter in the Northern regions. Ok, I expect the days to drop a bit, by 1/2c, due to the seasonal shifting of the sun, but nothing really to write home about.
A real good strong W.D, is needed to bring the winter back, and I presume one might have to wait for and watch the track of another predicted system coming from the Bay.

Let's hope for the Northerners (and Southerners), the system behaves normally,
precipitates where its needed, in T.N.and not loose its way to the North !

Latest 5 p.m.Visible Image of Depression

Steady Drizzling in most areas of Mumbai from 4 p.m.

Putting up tonite : Where has the Northern Winter Dissappeared" ?

The well marked low pressure now positioned, almost stationary since last report, at 17.4N and 71.9E, some 180 kms SW of Mumbai.
Likely to move NW and become a depression.

As Emkay points out, this remnant system pured heavy rains resulting in landslides near Karwar. BTW Karwar recorded 207 mms, Canacona 160 mms, Harnai 82 mms and Panjim 67 mms of rain in 24 hrs up to 8.30 today morning.

Mumbai existing forecast posted on Monday remains valid.

Remnant low from "Jal" crosses into the Arabian Sea early today, 9th. Nov.(NRL Info.)
Positioned at 16.4N and 73E, SW of Mumbai, and 1010 mb.

Winter drops back to "mild Status" in N.India. Write up on the next week's outlook tonite.

Monday, November 08, 2010

Scene shifting to the West coast.

The remnant of "Jal" is now a low pressure, with 1002 mb and located at 15.3N and 75E, almost at Goa.
This low pressure seems likely to re emerge into the Arabian Sea off the S.Konkan/Goa /N.Karnataka coast by tomorrow, 9th.
Though it will be at around 1004 mb, not very deep, the UAC associated with with this System at Mid-Upper Level will precipitate rains.
The rains will be concentrated in the Konkan/Goa and South Mah. regions initially on the 9th.

Later, the NCEP GFS shows the UAC is expected to move NW, and along with
the sea level low, move into the Saurashtra peninsula. System should precipitate fairly heavy unseasonal rains in the Saurastra region and N.Gujarat around the 10/11th.
Rainfall is expected to creep into S.Rajasthan and west M.P.

Mumbai forecast remains unchanged.

A system expected to enter Andaman Sea around 13th. Vagaries will keep up dating as and when.

Latest U.K. Weather from Mark updated on International Weather Page
All models forecast erstwhile "Jal" re-emerging in the Arabian Sea by 9th.Most models show it loading off the west coast at 1010 mb.
Keeping a watch on this development.


Sunday, November 07, 2010

So Jal is the shortest lived category 1 storm ever to have crossed T.N. or most probably any where else. From Cat 1 to a DD in under 18 hours.
People will remember Jal at least for this record

Few hours back, the search was on for the "eye" of JAL, but now we are searching JAL !
Putting up the latest satellite image. And you can enter the "Search for Jal " Quiz contest !

Moving inland , the low will precipitate dimnishing amounts of rain in interior T.N. with a bright Monday for Chennai. Rains will decrease from tomorrow afternoon in Bangalore. But showers will move into Mah, with south Mah. getting intermittent rains from tomorrow. Mahableshwar could expect some rains next couple of days.
Konkan will see precipitation next 2 days, as the swirl covers the region.

Putting up Mumbai forecast on "Mumbai Weather" page.View Inter action Page for Matheran pics.

Cyclone Jal ! The nomenclature was misleading in itself. It earned the name Jal for a short period over the sea.
Too much excitement on this cyclone was unfounded and leading to dissapointment.
In vagaries, it was pointed out on the 4th. of November, whether it will actually cross as a cyclone ? In fact two ?? were put up. The resistance the system would encounter was mentioned then,(I received a couple of mild protests) and we see it happening.

The system is about to cross the coast near Chennai, as a DD !. At 996 mb. it has a wind speed of 35-40 knts, it is below cyclone criteria, may be a DD.
It is totally dis-organised by now, and convection clouds are seen spreading inland into the southern states.

Now, on crossing, it will precipitate rains on the North T.N./South A.P. coast for 12 hrs, that should be around 5-10 cms in prevoius 24 hrs, and inland on dissipitating, rains will be around 5 cms on an average.

As mentioned repeatedly in Vagaries, the clouding will enlarge on the system crossing land, in fact latest satellite images shaw the "cloud bloating" already taking place.

Moving into interior Karnataka by tomorrow, it will weaken really fast, and precipitate diminishing rains along its track north-west.
Should fizzle out by the time it reaches South interior Mah.
But the "enlarged cloudings swirl will cover the southern peninsula, and Mah. with light rains in the region for a couple of days.

Another write up and Matheran pics by 10 pm

Season's Greetings and a Happy New Year to all !
A pic taken on Friday at about 1 pm, with the developing Thunderclouds. Some more pics when I update my blog, will be there to read by 9pm today. Sorry for the break.

Vagaries had to take a break as I spent a quiet Diwali at Matheran.
But not quiet enough, as there were violent thunderstorms on Thursday the 4th. and Friday 5th. Both days had heavy rains, 45 mms on Thursday 4th. and about 40 mms on Friday 5th, in the evening, But the Lightning was heavy and thunder deafening. Saturday in Matheran saw only lightning for about an hour, from 7 pm to 8 pm, no rain, and fog after 8 pm.
Regards, Rajesh.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Depression still at the same strength as previous report.And the current progress is not encouraging.
Locationat 8.5N and 90E, remains at around the same 1200 kms ESE of chennai.
But, we had predicted a deepening today, but is at 1000 mb, and now expected to accelarate into a DD. I would wait to announce the cyclone formation as yet.
Crossing the coast would be on the T.N. coast. As a cyclone ??
Heavy rains could now commence along the T.N.coastfrom 6th,with increasing intensity by 6th, evening.

On the west coast, there the no chart available showing whether the vortex has crossed inland.But, looking at the satellite picture, I am of the opinion that it seems to have done so, what with the heavy thunder clouding in North Mah.

I am now, on the 4th, in Matheran, and this station has witnessed a violent thunderstorm from 6pm for 2 hrs.with heavy lightning and gusty winds, Matheran measured up 45 mms of rain in an hour.

Some of the thunder cells shifted towards north Mumbai region.
Bay Depression Position:
Location: 8.6N and 91.3E. Movement North-West in 6 hrs.About 1150/1200 kms SE from Chennai.
Core Pressure: 1000 mb. Reduced from 1002 mb
Wind Speeds: 30 Knts. 
Getting organised with swirl bands forming, indicating wall formation. Means, core pressure set to fall.Cirrus clouds in NW have formed with jet stream drag.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Just received reports of drizzling in Mumbai from Parwez. Report of light rain sent by Shiraz from Mahableshwar at 9 p.m.

Mumbai Weather page updated on 3rd Nov. @11.p.m.
Bay Depression Update:
Core pressure yet the same as per last report , and constant at 1002 mb. But outward development is the circulation centre surrounded by convective cloud bands, organised in the last 6 hrs.
Winds at 30 knts, and location slightly north-westwards (from last report) at 8N and 92.7E.
Now about 1400 kms east south-east of Chennai.

Low in the Arabian Sea precipitated heavy rains in Goa today.Thundershowers lashed many regions of Goa today. Clouds spreading into the interiors.

The latest position of the Depression is now at 8.3N and 94E.
Indicating its movement towards the West in the last 6 hrs. Its core pressure is maintained at 1002 mb, and the winds are at 45 Kmph.

However, strengtening is expected in the next 24 hrs, due to conducive conditions of the bay waters, with SST around 30/31c.
And movement will be westwards, towards the T.N.coast.The attached estimated track from NGP seems to be the most probable track, which I would vouch for. The best possible
scenario amongst the others from different models.

Vagaries maintains is Chennai projections and landfall date, and after crossing forecasted movements of this system as per yesterday's write up.Please refresh from yesterday's blog.
It is doubtful if the system will survive as far as the west coast, as shown in the map. It should fizzle out to a mere low in a couple of days, in the region of S.Mah/N.Karnataka.

As mentioned in Vagaries yesterday, another low has formed in the Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka coast. The parameters and performance of this low should be as per yesterday's description, without change.
Next update at 9 p.m. tonite.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Depression in Indian Waters. At 8.5N and 95E, starts rolling west-northwest. Deepening by Wednesday.

West coast too may get a mild drenching this week.
Mumbai forecast put up on Mumbai page.

The depression in the Gulf of Thailand has moved into South Andaman Sea. A Thai map shows the system having crossed land at the the southern provinces of Thailand coast with sustained winds speeding up to 50 kmph.and core pressure at 1002 mb. The Andaman Islands, can expect to now receive fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain with wind speeds touching 50 km/hr

The Bay can now be put under vigilance for a cyclone watch.
This system will now develop fast, and track towards the Tamil Nadu coast for a landfall. Some models project a westwards path and hitting Sri Lanka. At landfall, the core pressure could go down to 994/996 mb, with winds at 90/110 kmph.

Vagaries had projected a westward movement, and prefers to estimate the DD intensifying and hitting land on the T.N. coast,(possibly near Chennai), around the 6th. Nov.
By the 5th./6th, Chennai will have to gear up for squally weather, with winds at 70/90 kmph, and some very heavy rains, maybe 150-200 mms in 24 hrs. time period. Very very wet Diwali indeed !!

Very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, T.N. Kerala and South Karnataka commencing from 4th. November.

After crossing land, I would relyon my earlier estimate. As the storm weakens, the clouding will "flare up" to some extent, and cover the Southern states of T.N, Karnataka, A.P. and Kerala.
On further moving North-west, it will weaken fast, meet some resistance from the North-Westerly winds, and reach up to Southern Mah.by the 8th. November.

Rainfall in N.Karnataka could increase from the 7th.
Medium rains could also precipitate into Southern Mah. on the 8th.of Nov.

The next awaited low pressure area will form off the Karnataka coast by the 4/5th. of November. Due to lack of sufficient "nourishment", it will be short lived and may not last more than a couple of days, hovering mostly in the South Arabian Sea area itself. But will precipitate some showers along the Karnataka/S.Konkan coastal regions.

Vagaries is keeping a watch, and reporting the daily development right from the time the TD has formed and travelled thru the Thai Peninsula.
On 30th. October, it was put up on the blog, and since then the follow up is being put up. Until and unless there is some drastic change from the initial write up (of the 30th), there is no meaning in repeating it daily, and the next day's blog becomes a continuation of the previous blog, and accordingly is always mentioned.

Monday, November 01, 2010

Our Partner's Superb Europe Winter Forecast is Put Up.
The much awaited analysed winter forecast is finally up on Mark,s blog.Get the full details here.
A must for all to know, and for those travelling to Europe. Very good forecast for U.K. cities, with expected temperatures.

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