Thursday, November 30, 2017

Posted Sunday Evening (Brief)
Ockhi:
As explained earlier, the cold dry air is now almost encircling the Very Severe Cyclone from the West and south. Hence, with the positioning of the STR, the Cyclone has now tracked N/NW, changed course from expected lines.
Stationed at 12.3N and 68.8E, estimated core pressure is 975 mb. Core winds estimated at 135 kmph. 
Envoloping cold dry air, and cooler seas, will weaken the system from Monday, as it heads NE towards South Gujarat coast.

Squally weather for Mumbai on Tuesday and rainy for Surat. Details of these cities and rain affected regions later tonight in next report at 12 mid night (Sunday).

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Posted Saturday Night:

Severe Cyclonic Storm "Ockhi" is moving NW as expected, and is latest location is 11.4N and 69.4E. Estimated core winds is at 150-160 kmph and estimated core pressure (average) is 977 mb. 

Dense overcast clouding has filled in the eye of the storm.As the Sub Tropical Ridge persists, the system will continue to travel NW. An upper air anticyclone and drier air will start to weaken the cyclone from Sunday. As the cyclone reaches the periphery of the STR, which is at about 15N today, it may weaken more and run NE along the STR. It will encounter dry air after 16N, and the dry air has now covered the extreme NW and West and is slowly creeping into the South of the Cyclone.See Infra Red /Water Vapour Image.



Cyclone will surely weaken after crossing 15N, and the hitting of land then depends on the speed of the cyclone and the weakening pace.
May be a weak system if it reaches the West coast of India (North of Mumbai).

Mumbai will be hazy on Sunday.Partly cloudy on Monday. Cloudy and light rain expected on Tuesday 5th .


BB-19 will be forming in the South Bay by 4th December. With an expected track Westwards, Chennai can expect a good spell from this. North Int T.N.T.N. can wait for this system to give rains around 7th.


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Posted Friday 1st December Night:

"Ockhi" located at 9.1N and 72.3E having moved W/NW after last report. Estimated wind speed at core is 100-110 kmph . Will track W/NW now, moving away from the Indian Coast.
The intense cloud bands in the Western and NW segment are not so prominent now.
Unfortunately (or fortunately) i see that dry air is now gaining its grip in the NW and West of the system and....trying to push Eastwards towards the South of the cyclone.
The Infra Red- Water Vapour difference image  explains the above...


Will the dry air literally encircle the cyclone from 3 sides ? will the growth be restricted ?

I still do not give or declare the track or strength of Ockhi beyond Sunday. I have some doubts as explained....but we take it as it comes by the day.

Next report at 1 pm IST Saturday...

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Posted Friday Afternoon:

Latest position of Cyclone " Ockhi":  Located W/NW of last reporting and is situated at 8.8N and 73.5E. Estimated core pressure (average) is 981 mb, and estimated core wind speed is 90 kmph. 

System had a mass of dry air to the extreme NW, and the dry air is now pushing South, towards the West of the cyclone. Effect on Cyclone ? We wait and watch ....

System will track W/NW moving away from the Indian coast.



Notable rainfall in Kerala yesterday: Aryankavu ( Kollam) 257 mms, Minicy (Lakshadweep) 191 mms, Myladupura (Idduki) 120 mms, Punalur 91 mms, Thiru AP 79 mms.


Next report at 11.30 pm IST with weekend forecast for few cities....


Posted 30th Night:


BB-15, cyclonic storm "Ockhi". Latest position as on 9.30 pm IST is 8.4N and 75.5E and estimated pressure at 995mb. Winds are estimated at 55 knts and estimate peaking at around 90 knts. Well curved cloud bands are seen around the centre, with heavy precipitation around the core.




"Ockhi " will traverse W/NW now, away from the Indian coast, along the SW periphery of the sub tropical ridge. Cyclone will cross the the Lakshadweep Islands on Friday.

On reaching the half stage of the ridge, if the ridge has not moved, and inter acting with the trough,  it will track North-East.

Unfortunately, i see a band of dry air "trying" to encircle the system from the North-west. If the dry pushes South, it will actually wrap round the system from West and could weaken it...we will wait till next 12-24 hrs.


Next Vagaries report on 1st December at 11.30 am IST.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Posted Wednesday Night 29th November:
BB-15 has re -strengthened in the trough, and lies South of Kanyakumari at 6.4N. Currently deepened to depression at 1000 mb...tracking West. 

Posted Monday Night 27th:

BB-15 has emerged in the Arabian Sea as an embedded system in the trough in Maldives area. Likely to dissolve fast without much effect on India.
BB-16 our next expected low is likely to form in the Andaman Sea around 30th November....and this is the system to watch for precipitation along North TN and A.P. coastline later. 

City forecasts for Tuesday 28th/Wednesday 29th/Thursday 30th:

Mumbai:  Sky will be hazy with high clouds...at around 34c and nights around 19/20c.
Some queries were asked if Mumbai is expecting rains soon....well, no... No rains in the near future.

Chennai: Partly cloudy with light showers in some parts. Not widespread rains. no meaningful rains in North Interior T.N... South may get some light showers in the interior.
Like we mentioned earlier. Watch out for the track of BB-16.....

Kolkata: Clear weather in the range of 29c and 15c.
Delhi NCR: Shallow pre noon fog. Temperature range will be 26c and 9c.







Saturday, November 25, 2017

Posted 25th November:
We in the Sub Continent do not get to see this beautiful phenomena.
Those visiting the Arctic Countries saw a rare and unusual phenomena few days ago...Pink Auroras !
On Nov. 22nd, the face of the sun was unblemished by sunspots, and NOAA classified solar activity as "very low."  
Nevertheless, the skies above Tromsø, Norway, exploded with a remarkable outburst of pink auroras. "Suddenly, the whole valley turned white (with a hint of pink)," says Frank Meissner, who witnessed and photographed the display. "It was over after about 20 seconds."

How bright was it? "The brightness of the auroras may be compared to the car lights in the background of my photo," points out Meissner.

In nearby Kvaløya, aurora tour guide Marianne Bergli witnessed a surge of pink that was, if anything, even more dramatic:


This outburst was powered by a stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere. Such holes are common during Solar Minimum, and they require no sunspots to form.
The pink color of the outburst tells us something interesting about the solar wind on Nov. 22nd: it seems to have been unusually penetrating. Most auroras are green–a verdant glow caused by energetic particles from space hitting oxygen atoms 100 km to 300 km above Earth's surface. Pink appears when the energetic particles descend lower than usual, striking nitrogen molecules at the 100 km level and below.
Article from spaceweather.com

This article will be posted in Author's Page of this blog also.

Friday, November 24, 2017

Posted 24th November Night:

Low pressure BB-15  is now currently located East off Sri Lanka Coast. Likely to move Westwards very slowly next 2 days. Possibility of re-emerging in the Arabian Sea around 27th/28th. Could gain strength again...Will keep this post updated on BB-15 , if converting to AS-1 !

Chennai: BB-15 shows results in Chennai: Rainfall likely to show increment from Saturday evening. Sunday will see occasional showers, some accompanied by thunder. Rains will be intermittent on Monday also. Decreasing after Tuesday...and then waiting for BB-16.

Another system, BB-16, is likely to form in the SE Bay around 29th. This system shows potential of good development and strengthening, as it tracks NW...

Mumbai: Friday and Saturday will be constant in the day at around 31/32c, with pleasant nights at around 17/18c (Scruz). Sunday will turn cloudy with change in night temperatures (rising).

Pune: Warm days on Friday/Saturday. Cloudy Sunday.

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Temperatures showing  a gradual fall in North..
North India Minimums from Ankit Patel.....24th November
1 Srinagar (J & K) -3.1 °C
2 Qazi Gund(J & K) -2.2 °C
3 Manali (HP) -0.8 °C
4 Bhuntar(HP) 0.6 °C
5 Sundernagar (HP) 1.3 °C
6 Mount Abu(RJ) 2.4 °C
7 Banihal (J &K) 3.1 °C
8 Sikar (RJ) 3.5 °C
9 Mukteshwar Kumaon (Uttrakhand) 4.3 °C
10 Bhilwara(RJ) 4.5 °C
11 Churu (RJ) 4.5 °C
12 Una (HP) 4.8 °C
13 Pantnagar (Uttrakhand) 5.5 °C
14 Alwar (RJ) 6.0 °C
15 Chittorgarh(RJ) 6.0 °C
16 Narnaul(Haryana) 6.0 °C
17 Umaria () 6.0 °C
18 Hissar (Haryana) 6.1 °C
19 Ganganagar (RJ) 6.2 °C
20 Rohtak (Haryana) 6.2 ° C



Monday, November 20, 2017

Posted 20th November Night:

Monday 20th: Very light rains were experienced from Eastern Outer Townships of Mumbai and Abizer reports of rain in Nagaothane. The Lonavala and ghats region also had light rain. Parts of Mumbai had light drizzles. Pune had a heavy drizzle on Monday evening.

Next 3 days:
Mumbai: 
Cloudy sky on Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd. Stuffy night.....Eastern Outer townships again get light rains on Wednesday.


Hazy sky on Thursday



Pune
Cloudy sky on Tuesday with light rains in some parts. 
Light rains may occur on Wednesday also. 
Clearing weather on Thursday.
Light Showers expected in Mahableshwar and Lonavala

Goa: Cloudy Tuesday with light showers and same conditions for  Wednesday. Clearing from Thursday.
No rains expected in Eastern/Western Vidharbh (Nagpur ...no rains).

Kolkata: With North winds , next 3 days are expected to get cooler, with days around 27c, and nights touching 16c.
Delhi NCR: Minimum may further drop to 8c next 2 nights, and days cooler at 22c. Fog may reappear on 24th .

Monday, November 13, 2017

Posted 15th Wednesday Night:
1. BB-14 is now of Depression strength and its latest location centre is 16.5N and 84.4E.off Andhra Coast. Likely to track NNE and cross Odisha coast, while maintaining its strength.
Bhubaneshwar recorded 24 mms of rainfall on Wednesday till 8.30 pm IST, with the maximum temperature at 22.2c. Puri measured 42 mms
Kolkata AP recorded 25  mms in the same period with the day's high reaching 23.2c. Alipore recorded 23 mms.

Heavy showers (> 100 mms) expected in Bhubaneshwar on Thursday. 
Heavy rains on Thursday in Kolkata too but decreasing by evening as BB-14 crosses coast.

Mumbai: Mumbai saw a drop in night readings as expected....The winds in the daytime will revert to Easterlies from Saturday in Mumbai. We may expect a rise in day temperatures by 2/3c ( 34/36c) on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune: Pleasant winds in the daytime in Pune on Saturday and Sunday will keep the day below 30c in Pune.


It has snowed in the middle reaches of Kashmir on Tuesday. Srinagar had rains after a long dry spell, with the max temperature on Monday at 11c. Leh recorded a low of -6.3c on Monday.

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Posted 13th Monday Night:

1. The embedded Low in the Easterly trough we discussed about last post, is now a well marked Low ( BB-14) at 15N and 84.1E. Likely to deepen to some extent and track towards the Odisha coast. Could cross there as a depression around 16th November.
Decrease in rains in Chennai after Tuesday 15th. But, very heavy rains in Bhubaneshwar on Wednesday (100 mms in 24 hrs) and Thursday.
Occasional heavy showers for Kolkata on Wednesday ( 50-60mms) and Thursday. Cold days at around 23/24c.

2. The Western Disturbance is is advancing over Northern Pakistan and into Northern India. Rains/snow will precipitate in Kashmir. Light showers in Punjab on Wednesday.

3. Night temperatures will drop by 2/3c ( 17-19c) from current levels in Mumbai next 2/3 nights.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Friday, November 10, 2017

Posted Friday 10th November Night:
Weekend 2 days forecast:
Chennai: An extended Easterly Trough will increase rains in Chennai on Saturday and Sunday. Occasional rain showers this weekend, with a few heavy falls will bring good weekend showers.
Approximately around 40 mms/day
Mumbai: Days remaining same as last 2 days, around 34/35c and nights around 21c.
Pune: Clear sunny days around 30c, nights around 15/16c.

Note: A  Western Disturbance will approach the Himalayan regions and plains of North India and Pakistan on 13th/14th. 
An Easterly trough in the Bay with a Low embedded in it next week will increase rains in Southern Peninsula. Rains may creep into South Madhya Maharahtra middle of next week. More of this later.....

See Below:  Highest Seasonal Rainfall Amounts with 3D map.
WEEKEND SPECIAL..
HIGHEST RAINFALL(2017) OVER INDIAN SUBCONTINENT..
(THIS EFFORT IS BEST VIEWED ON A LAPTOP)

1. Annual rainfall over Indian subcontinent major cities and Bangkok

2. Highest annual rainfall over Indian subcontinent and Thailand

3. HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINFALL ..STATE/COUNTRY WISE ..WITH 3D MAP 
 
1.HIGHEST ANNUAL RAINS (1 JAN - 31 OCT)..CITIES
 
TABLE 1 ..CITIES ARE ARRANGED IN DESCENDING ORDER OF RAINFALL RECEIVED  
CITY
LOCATION
RAINFALL (IN mms)
 
 
1 Jan - 31 Oct
MUMBAI
BORIVLI
3625
CHITTAGONG
 
3538
NAVI MUMBAI
ULWE
3350
 
 
 
DHAKA
 
2636
BANGKOK
CITY
2573
 
 
 
KOLKATA
PALAM
1910
BENGALURU
CITY
1666
 
 
 
CHENNAI
AIRPORT
1340 (till 9 Nov)
SURAT
 
1329
ISLAMABAD
AIRPORT
1316
HYDERABAD
CHARMINAR
1290
AHMEDABAD
 
1157
NAGPUR
AIRPORT
1070
 
 
 
KATHMANDU
 
925
PUNE
SHIVAJINAGAR
900
DELHI
NEW DELHI
810
LAHORE
 
609
 
 
 
KARACHI
MASROOR BASE
254
 
 
 2.HIGHEST ANNUAL RAINS (1 JAN - 31 OCT 2017)
 
 TABLE 2 .. LOCATIONS ARE ARRANGED IN DESCENDING ORDER OF RAINFALL     
COUNTRY
REGION
LOCATION
RAIN (IN mms)
STATE
 
 
1 Jan - 31 Oct 
MEGHALAYA
KHASI HILLS
MAWSYNRAM*
12500 *(provisional)
 
 
CHERRAPUNJI
11872
 
 
 
 
MAHARASHTRA
WESTERN GHATS
SHIRGAON
9000
 
 
LAMAJ
7500
 
 
TAMHINI
7000
 
 
 
 
BANGLADESH
BASE OF KHASI HILLS 
SUNAMGANJ
6800
 
 
 
 
KARNATAKA
WESTERN GHATS
AGUMBE
6000
 
 
 
 
MAHARASHTRA
MATHERAN HILLS
MATHERAN
5435
 
 
 
 
WEST BENGAL
DUARS
BANARHAT
5350
 
 
 
 
MIZORAM
 
LUNGLEI DISTRICT
5200
 
 
 
 
ASSAM
DUARS
CHIRANG DISTRICT
5000
 
 
 
 
ARUNACHAL
 
LOWER DIBANG
4800
 
 
 
 
THAILAND
 
RANONG
4530
 
 
 
 
MAHARASHTRA
MUMBAI
VIHAR
4506


3.HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINFALL (1 JUN - 31 OCT )

REFER INDIAN SUBCONTINENT 3D MAP BELOW TABLE 3..
 
 TABLE 3 ..HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINS (1 JUN - 31 OCT 2017)
 STATES ARE ARRANGED ALPHABETICALLY            
STATE/U.T. (INDIA)
REGION 
LOCATION (NO. on MAP)
RAINFALL (IN mms)
 
 
 
1 Jun - 31 Oct
ANDAMAN NICOBAR
 
PORT BLAIR
2427
ANDHRA PRADESH
EASTERN GHATS
MUNCHINGIPUTTU (24)
2000
 
RAYALASEEMA
AROGYAVARAM (35)
1101
ARUNACHAL PRADESH
 
LOWER DIBANG DISTRICT
3615
ASSAM
DUARS
CHIRANG DISTRICT (11)
3897
BIHAR
TERAI
GAUNAHA (21)
2299
CHATTISGARH
 
SUKMA DISTRICT (29)
1734
DADRA NAGAR HAVELI
 
 
3173
DAMAN DIU
 
DAMAN
2525
DELHI
 
NEW DELHI DISTRICT
701
GOA
 
VALPOI (12)
3564
GUJARAT
SOUTH
KAPRADA (13)
3328
 
COASTAL
DAMANGANGA
3049
 
NORTH
KALOL
1738
 
SAURASHTRA
TRIVENI THANGA (30)
1710
 
KUTCH
SUVI
844
HARYANA
 
YAMUNANAGAR DISTRICT
814
HIMACHAL PRADESH
 
DHARAMSALA (15)
2793
JAMMU KASHMIR
 
RIASI DISTRICT (25)
1967
JHARKHAND
 
JAMSHEDPUR (19)
2443
KARNATAKA
WESTERN GHATS
AGUMBE (5)
5774
KERALA
 
KASARGOD DISTRICT (16)
2771
LAKSHADWEEP
 
AGATHI
1420
MADHYA PRADESH
PLAINS
KHANDWA (32)
1676
 
SATPURA HILLS
PACHMARHI
1631
MAHARASHTRA
WESTERN GHATS
SHIRGAON (2)
8827
 
WESTERN GHATS
LAMAJ (4)
7331
 
MATHERAN HILLS
MATHERAN (6)
5429
 
MUMBAI 
VIHAR (8)
4502
 
VIDARBHA
CHAMORSHI (23)
2009
 
SATPURA HILLS
TORANMAL (27)
1808
 
MARATHWADA
RENAPUR (34)
1351
MANIPUR
 
IMPHAL WEST DISTRICT
2879
MEGHALAYA
KHASI HILLS
MAWSYNRAM* (1)
8925 *(provisional)
 
 
CHERRAPUNJI (3)
8340
MIZORAM
 
LUNGLEI DISTRICT
4431
NAGALAND
 
DIMAPUR DISTRICT
1616
ORISSA
 
MALKANGIRI (22)
2044
PUNJAB
 
GURDASPUR DISTRICT (36)
1009
RAJASTHAN
ARAVALLI HILLS
MT.ABU (14)
3280
 
THAR DESERT
GUDAMALANI (37)
823
SIKKIM
 
NORTH SIKKIM DISTRICT (20)
2407
TELANGANA
 
BURGAMPADU (33)
1394
TRIPURA
 
KAILASAHAR (18)
2499
UTTARAKHAND
GARHWAL
DEHRADUN (26)
1919
 
KUMAON
BANBASA (28)
1760
UTTAR PRADESH
TERAI
KAKARAHI (31)
1694
WEST BENGAL
DUARS
HASIMARA (10)
4212
 
GANGETIC PLAINS
BANKURA (17)
2684
 
 
 
 
COUNTRY
REGION 
LOCATION (NO. on MAP)
RAINFALL (IN mms)
BANGLADESH
BASE OF KHASI HILLS
SUNAMGANJ (7)
4800
NEPAL
SUB HIMALAYAS
LUMLE (9)
4240
THAILAND
SOUTH WEST COAST
RANONG
3379
 
(MYANMAR BORDER)
 
 
 
INDIAN SUBCONTINENT 3D MAP.. STATE/REGIONWISE HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINS

SIRUVANI DAM (WESTERN GHATS OF TAMILNADU) HAS RECEIVED NEARLY 3000 mms OF RAINS ..

AT WESTERN GHATS OF MAHRASHTRA -- 9 STATIONS HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN 6000 mms OF RAINS and NUMEROUS STATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 5000 mms ..
  
(Thanks to Abhishek Apte for Mumbai -Borivali rain data of Table 1)

Posted Monday 18th November : Unseasonal extra rainfall for some cities from cyclones Mid October-Mid November ----...