Posted Sunday Evening (Brief)
Ockhi:
As explained earlier, the cold dry air is now almost encircling the Very Severe Cyclone from the West and south. Hence, with the positioning of the STR, the Cyclone has now tracked N/NW, changed course from expected lines.
Stationed at 12.3N and 68.8E, estimated core pressure is 975 mb. Core winds estimated at 135 kmph. 
Envoloping cold dry air, and cooler seas, will weaken the system from Monday, as it heads NE towards South Gujarat coast.

Squally weather for Mumbai on Tuesday and rainy for Surat. Details of these cities and rain affected regions later tonight in next report at 12 mid night (Sunday).

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Posted Saturday Night:

Severe Cyclonic Storm "Ockhi" is moving NW as expected, and is latest location is 11.4N and 69.4E. Estimated core winds is at 150-160 kmph and estimated core pressure (average) is 977 mb. 
Dense overcast clouding has filled in the eye of the storm.As the Sub Tropical Ridge persists, the system will continue to travel NW. An upper air anticyclone and drier air will start to weaken the cyclone from Sunday. As the cyclone reaches the periphery of the STR, which is at about 15N today, it may weaken more and run NE along the STR. It will encounter dry air after 16N, and the dry air has now covered the extreme NW and West and is slowly creeping into the South of the Cyclone.See Infra Red /Water Vapour Image.

Cyclone will surely weaken after crossing 15N, and the hitting of land then depends on the speed of the cyclone and the weakening pace.
May be a weak system if it reaches the West coast of India (North of Mumbai).

Mumbai will be hazy on Sunday.Partly cloudy on Monday. Cloudy and light rain expected on Tuesday 5th .

BB-19 will be forming in the South Bay by 4th December. With an expected track Westwards, Chennai can expect a good spell from this. North Int T.N.T.N. can wait for this system to give rains around 7th.

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Posted Friday 1st December Night:

"Ockhi" located at 9.1N and 72.3E having moved W/NW after last report. Estimated wind speed at core is 100-110 kmph . Will track W/NW now, moving away from the Indian Coast.
The intense cloud bands in the Western and NW segment are not so prominent now.
Unfortunately (or fortunately) i see that dry air is now gaining its grip in the NW and West of the system and....trying to push Eastwards towards the South of the cyclone.
The Infra Red- Water Vapour difference image  explains the above...

Will the dry air literally encircle the cyclone from 3 sides ? will the growth be restricted ?
I still do not give or declare the track or strength of Ockhi beyond Sunday. I have some doubts as explained....but we take it as it comes by the day.

Next report at 1 pm IST Saturday...

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Posted Friday Afternoon:

Latest position of Cyclone " Ockhi":  Located W/NW of last reporting and is situated at 8.8N and 73.5E. Estimated core pressure (average) is 981 mb, and estimated core wind speed is 90 kmph. 
System had a mass of dry air to the extreme NW, and the dry air is now pushing South, towards the West of the cyclone. Effect on Cyclone ? We wait and watch ....

System will track W/NW moving away from the Indian coast.

Notable rainfall in Kerala yesterday: Aryankavu ( Kollam) 257 mms, Minicy (Lakshadweep) 191 mms, Myladupura (Idduki) 120 mms, Punalur 91 mms, Thiru AP 79 mms.

Next report at 11.30 pm IST with weekend forecast for few cities....


Posted 30th Night:

BB-15, cyclonic storm "Ockhi". Latest position as on 9.30 pm IST is 8.4N and 75.5E and estimated pressure at 995mb. Winds are estimated at 55 knts and estimate peaking at around 90 knts. Well curved cloud bands are seen around the centre, with heavy precipitation around the core.

"Ockhi " will traverse W/NW now, away from the Indian coast, along the SW periphery of the sub tropical ridge. Cyclone will cross the the Lakshadweep Islands on Friday.
On reaching the half stage of the ridge, if the ridge has not moved, and inter acting with the trough,  it will track North-East.

Unfortunately, i see a band of dry air "trying" to encircle the system from the North-west. If the dry pushes South, it will actually wrap round the system from West and could weaken it...we will wait till next 12-24 hrs.

Next Vagaries report on 1st December at 11.30 am IST.

Posted Wednesday Night 29th November:
BB-15 has re -strengthened in the trough, and lies South of Kanyakumari at 6.4N. Currently deepened to depression at 1000 mb...tracking West. 

Posted Monday Night 27th:

BB-15 has emerged in the Arabian Sea as an embedded system in the trough in Maldives area. Likely to dissolve fast without much effect on India.
BB-16 our next expected low is likely to form in the Andaman Sea around 30th November....and this is the system to watch for precipitation along North TN and A.P. coastline later. 

City forecasts for Tuesday 28th/Wednesday 29th/Thursday 30th:

Mumbai:  Sky will be hazy with high clouds...at around 34c and nights around 19/20c.
Some queries were asked if Mumbai is expecting rains soon....well, no... No rains in the near future.

Chennai: Partly cloudy with light showers in some parts. Not widespread rains. no meaningful rains in North Interior T.N... South may get some light showers in the interior.
Like we mentioned earlier. Watch out for the track of BB-16.....

Kolkata: Clear weather in the range of 29c and 15c.
Delhi NCR: Shallow pre noon fog. Temperature range will be 26c and 9c.

Posted 25th November:
We in the Sub Continent do not get to see this beautiful phenomena.
Those visiting the Arctic Countries saw a rare and unusual phenomena few days ago...Pink Auroras !
On Nov. 22nd, the face of the sun was unblemished by sunspots, and NOAA classified solar activity as "very low."  
Nevertheless, the skies above Tromsø, Norway, exploded with a remarkable outburst of pink auroras. "Suddenly, the whole valley turned white (with a hint of pink)," says Frank Meissner, who witnessed and photographed the display. "It was over after about 20 seconds."

How bright was it? "The brightness of the auroras may be compared to the car lights in the background of my photo," points out Meissner.

In nearby Kvaløya, aurora tour guide Marianne Bergli witnessed a surge of pink that was, if anything, even more dramatic:

This outburst was powered by a stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere. Such holes are common during Solar Minimum, and they require no sunspots to form.
The pink color of the outburst tells us something interesting about the solar wind on Nov. 22nd: it seems to have been unusually penetrating. Most auroras are green–a verdant glow caused by energetic particles from space hitting oxygen atoms 100 km to 300 km above Earth's surface. Pink appears when the energetic particles descend lower than usual, striking nitrogen molecules at the 100 km level and below.
Article from spaceweather.com

This article will be posted in Author's Page of this blog also.

Posted 24th November Night:

Low pressure BB-15  is now currently located East off Sri Lanka Coast. Likely to move Westwards very slowly next 2 days. Possibility of re-emerging in the Arabian Sea around 27th/28th. Could gain strength again...Will keep this post updated on BB-15 , if converting to AS-1 !

Chennai: BB-15 shows results in Chennai: Rainfall likely to show increment from Saturday evening. Sunday will see occasional showers, some accompanied by thunder. Rains will be intermittent on Monday also. Decreasing after Tuesday...and then waiting for BB-16.

Another system, BB-16, is likely to form in the SE Bay around 29th. This system shows potential of good development and strengthening, as it tracks NW...

Mumbai: Friday and Saturday will be constant in the day at around 31/32c, with pleasant nights at around 17/18c (Scruz). Sunday will turn cloudy with change in night temperatures (rising).

Pune: Warm days on Friday/Saturday. Cloudy Sunday.

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Temperatures showing  a gradual fall in North..
North India Minimums from Ankit Patel.....24th November
1 Srinagar (J & K) -3.1 °C
2 Qazi Gund(J & K) -2.2 °C
3 Manali (HP) -0.8 °C
4 Bhuntar(HP) 0.6 °C
5 Sundernagar (HP) 1.3 °C
6 Mount Abu(RJ) 2.4 °C
7 Banihal (J &K) 3.1 °C
8 Sikar (RJ) 3.5 °C
9 Mukteshwar Kumaon (Uttrakhand) 4.3 °C
10 Bhilwara(RJ) 4.5 °C
11 Churu (RJ) 4.5 °C
12 Una (HP) 4.8 °C
13 Pantnagar (Uttrakhand) 5.5 °C
14 Alwar (RJ) 6.0 °C
15 Chittorgarh(RJ) 6.0 °C
16 Narnaul(Haryana) 6.0 °C
17 Umaria () 6.0 °C
18 Hissar (Haryana) 6.1 °C
19 Ganganagar (RJ) 6.2 °C
20 Rohtak (Haryana) 6.2 ° C

Posted 20th November Night:

Monday 20th: Very light rains were experienced from Eastern Outer Townships of Mumbai and Abizer reports of rain in Nagaothane. The Lonavala and ghats region also had light rain. Parts of Mumbai had light drizzles. Pune had a heavy drizzle on Monday evening.

Next 3 days:
Mumbai: 
Cloudy sky on Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd. Stuffy night.....Eastern Outer townships again get light rains on Wednesday.


Hazy sky on Thursday



Pune: 
Cloudy sky on Tuesday with light rains in some parts. 
Light rains may occur on Wednesday also. 
Clearing weather on Thursday.
Light Showers expected in Mahableshwar and Lonavala

Goa: Cloudy Tuesday with light showers and same conditions for  Wednesday. Clearing from Thursday.
No rains expected in Eastern/Western Vidharbh (Nagpur ...no rains).

Kolkata: With North winds , next 3 days are expected to get cooler, with days around 27c, and nights touching 16c.
Delhi NCR: Minimum may further drop to 8c next 2 nights, and days cooler at 22c. Fog may reappear on 24th .

Posted 15th Wednesday Night:
1. BB-14 is now of Depression strength and its latest location centre is 16.5N and 84.4E.off Andhra Coast. Likely to track NNE and cross Odisha coast, while maintaining its strength.
Bhubaneshwar recorded 24 mms of rainfall on Wednesday till 8.30 pm IST, with the maximum temperature at 22.2c. Puri measured 42 mms
Kolkata AP recorded 25  mms in the same period with the day's high reaching 23.2c. Alipore recorded 23 mms.

Heavy showers (> 100 mms) expected in Bhubaneshwar on Thursday. 
Heavy rains on Thursday in Kolkata too but decreasing by evening as BB-14 crosses coast.

Mumbai: Mumbai saw a drop in night readings as expected....The winds in the daytime will revert to Easterlies from Saturday in Mumbai. We may expect a rise in day temperatures by 2/3c ( 34/36c) on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune: Pleasant winds in the daytime in Pune on Saturday and Sunday will keep the day below 30c in Pune.


It has snowed in the middle reaches of Kashmir on Tuesday. Srinagar had rains after a long dry spell, with the max temperature on Monday at 11c. Leh recorded a low of -6.3c on Monday.

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Posted 13th Monday Night:

1. The embedded Low in the Easterly trough we discussed about last post, is now a well marked Low ( BB-14) at 15N and 84.1E. Likely to deepen to some extent and track towards the Odisha coast. Could cross there as a depression around 16th November.
Decrease in rains in Chennai after Tuesday 15th. But, very heavy rains in Bhubaneshwar on Wednesday (100 mms in 24 hrs) and Thursday.
Occasional heavy showers for Kolkata on Wednesday ( 50-60mms) and Thursday. Cold days at around 23/24c.

2. The Western Disturbance is is advancing over Northern Pakistan and into Northern India. Rains/snow will precipitate in Kashmir. Light showers in Punjab on Wednesday.

3. Night temperatures will drop by 2/3c ( 17-19c) from current levels in Mumbai next 2/3 nights.

The Economic Times 11th November:Our Vagaries ...

Posted Friday 10th November Night:
Weekend 2 days forecast:
Chennai: An extended Easterly Trough will increase rains in Chennai on Saturday and Sunday. Occasional rain showers this weekend, with a few heavy falls will bring good weekend showers.
Approximately around 40 mms/day
Mumbai: Days remaining same as last 2 days, around 34/35c and nights around 21c.
Pune: Clear sunny days around 30c, nights around 15/16c.

Note: A  Western Disturbance will approach the Himalayan regions and plains of North India and Pakistan on 13th/14th. 
An Easterly trough in the Bay with a Low embedded in it next week will increase rains in Southern Peninsula. Rains may creep into South Madhya Maharahtra middle of next week. More of this later.....

See Below:  Highest Seasonal Rainfall Amounts with 3D map.

WEEKEND SPECIAL..

HIGHEST RAINFALL(2017) OVER INDIAN SUBCONTINENT..

(THIS EFFORT IS BEST VIEWED ON A LAPTOP)

1. Annual rainfall over Indian subcontinent major cities and Bangkok

2. Highest annual rainfall over Indian subcontinent and Thailand

3. HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINFALL ..STATE/COUNTRY WISE ..WITH 3D MAP 

 

1.HIGHEST ANNUAL RAINS (1 JAN - 31 OCT)..CITIES

 

TABLE 1 ..CITIES ARE ARRANGED IN DESCENDING ORDER OF RAINFALL RECEIVED  

CITY	LOCATION	RAINFALL (IN mms)
		1 Jan - 31 Oct
MUMBAI	BORIVLI	3625
CHITTAGONG		3538
NAVI MUMBAI	ULWE	3350
DHAKA		2636
BANGKOK	CITY	2573
KOLKATA	PALAM	1910
BENGALURU	CITY	1666
CHENNAI	AIRPORT	1340 (till 9 Nov)
SURAT		1329
ISLAMABAD	AIRPORT	1316
HYDERABAD	CHARMINAR	1290
AHMEDABAD		1157
NAGPUR	AIRPORT	1070
KATHMANDU		925
PUNE	SHIVAJINAGAR	900
DELHI	NEW DELHI	810
LAHORE		609
KARACHI	MASROOR BASE	254

 

 

 2.HIGHEST ANNUAL RAINS (1 JAN - 31 OCT 2017)

 

 TABLE 2 .. LOCATIONS ARE ARRANGED IN DESCENDING ORDER OF RAINFALL     

COUNTRY	REGION	LOCATION	RAIN (IN mms)
STATE			1 Jan - 31 Oct
MEGHALAYA	KHASI HILLS	MAWSYNRAM*	12500 *(provisional)
		CHERRAPUNJI	11872
MAHARASHTRA	WESTERN GHATS	SHIRGAON	9000
		LAMAJ	7500
		TAMHINI	7000
BANGLADESH	BASE OF KHASI HILLS	SUNAMGANJ	6800
KARNATAKA	WESTERN GHATS	AGUMBE	6000
MAHARASHTRA	MATHERAN HILLS	MATHERAN	5435
WEST BENGAL	DUARS	BANARHAT	5350
MIZORAM		LUNGLEI DISTRICT	5200
ASSAM	DUARS	CHIRANG DISTRICT	5000
ARUNACHAL		LOWER DIBANG	4800
THAILAND		RANONG	4530
MAHARASHTRA	MUMBAI	VIHAR	4506

3.HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINFALL (1 JUN - 31 OCT )

REFER INDIAN SUBCONTINENT 3D MAP BELOW TABLE 3..

 

 TABLE 3 ..HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINS (1 JUN - 31 OCT 2017)

 STATES ARE ARRANGED ALPHABETICALLY            

STATE/U.T. (INDIA)	REGION	LOCATION (NO. on MAP)	RAINFALL (IN mms)
			1 Jun - 31 Oct
ANDAMAN NICOBAR		PORT BLAIR	2427
ANDHRA PRADESH	EASTERN GHATS	MUNCHINGIPUTTU (24)	2000
	RAYALASEEMA	AROGYAVARAM (35)	1101
ARUNACHAL PRADESH		LOWER DIBANG DISTRICT	3615
ASSAM	DUARS	CHIRANG DISTRICT (11)	3897
BIHAR	TERAI	GAUNAHA (21)	2299
CHATTISGARH		SUKMA DISTRICT (29)	1734
DADRA NAGAR HAVELI			3173
DAMAN DIU		DAMAN	2525
DELHI		NEW DELHI DISTRICT	701
GOA		VALPOI (12)	3564
GUJARAT	SOUTH	KAPRADA (13)	3328
	COASTAL	DAMANGANGA	3049
	NORTH	KALOL	1738
	SAURASHTRA	TRIVENI THANGA (30)	1710
	KUTCH	SUVI	844
HARYANA		YAMUNANAGAR DISTRICT	814
HIMACHAL PRADESH		DHARAMSALA (15)	2793
JAMMU KASHMIR		RIASI DISTRICT (25)	1967
JHARKHAND		JAMSHEDPUR (19)	2443
KARNATAKA	WESTERN GHATS	AGUMBE (5)	5774
KERALA		KASARGOD DISTRICT (16)	2771
LAKSHADWEEP		AGATHI	1420
MADHYA PRADESH	PLAINS	KHANDWA (32)	1676
	SATPURA HILLS	PACHMARHI	1631
MAHARASHTRA	WESTERN GHATS	SHIRGAON (2)	8827
	WESTERN GHATS	LAMAJ (4)	7331
	MATHERAN HILLS	MATHERAN (6)	5429
	MUMBAI	VIHAR (8)	4502
	VIDARBHA	CHAMORSHI (23)	2009
	SATPURA HILLS	TORANMAL (27)	1808
	MARATHWADA	RENAPUR (34)	1351
MANIPUR		IMPHAL WEST DISTRICT	2879
MEGHALAYA	KHASI HILLS	MAWSYNRAM* (1)	8925 *(provisional)
		CHERRAPUNJI (3)	8340
MIZORAM		LUNGLEI DISTRICT	4431
NAGALAND		DIMAPUR DISTRICT	1616
ORISSA		MALKANGIRI (22)	2044
PUNJAB		GURDASPUR DISTRICT (36)	1009
RAJASTHAN	ARAVALLI HILLS	MT.ABU (14)	3280
	THAR DESERT	GUDAMALANI (37)	823
SIKKIM		NORTH SIKKIM DISTRICT (20)	2407
TELANGANA		BURGAMPADU (33)	1394
TRIPURA		KAILASAHAR (18)	2499
UTTARAKHAND	GARHWAL	DEHRADUN (26)	1919
	KUMAON	BANBASA (28)	1760
UTTAR PRADESH	TERAI	KAKARAHI (31)	1694
WEST BENGAL	DUARS	HASIMARA (10)	4212
	GANGETIC PLAINS	BANKURA (17)	2684
COUNTRY	REGION	LOCATION (NO. on MAP)	RAINFALL (IN mms)
BANGLADESH	BASE OF KHASI HILLS	SUNAMGANJ (7)	4800
NEPAL	SUB HIMALAYAS	LUMLE (9)	4240
THAILAND	SOUTH WEST COAST	RANONG	3379
	(MYANMAR BORDER)

 

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT 3D MAP.. STATE/REGIONWISE HIGHEST SEASONAL RAINS

SIRUVANI DAM (WESTERN GHATS OF TAMILNADU) HAS RECEIVED NEARLY 3000 mms OF RAINS ..

AT WESTERN GHATS OF MAHRASHTRA -- 9 STATIONS HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN 6000 mms OF RAINS and NUMEROUS STATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 5000 mms ..
  
(Thanks to Abhishek Apte for Mumbai -Borivali rain data of Table 1)