2024 South West Monsoon 

The South West Monsoon season 2024 ends officially today (30-Sep-2024) on a calendar period basis. The observed cumulative All India mean rainfall for SWM 2024 ended with 934.8 mm and a cumulative rainfall departure of + 7.6 %. This puts the Monsoon 2024 in the "Above Normal Monsoon year" category. A look at the spatial distribution of cumulative rainfall anomalies across the country shows that the Monsoon rains were normal/above normal across many parts of the country with below normal rains over parts Indo Gangetic plains, parts of east India and parts of North East India. The east-west asymmetry in rainfall anomalies along the core Monsoon zone continues this years as well. Congratulations @Indiametdept for the accurate seasonal rainfall prediction.

Script by Vag. Gokul. 

 28th Night Posting :

In the next 2 days, by 1st October, the South West Monsoon will have withdrawn from Kashmir, H.P, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West U.P, West Rajasthan and entire Kutch.

Monsoon current prevailing South of these regions ...

Outlook for the week 29th September - 4th October

Maharashtra will have light and scanty rainfall till Friday 4th October,

Gujarat will get Decreasing rains this week, with the Monsoon bidding good bye in Kutch and North Gujarat.

Bharuch: light rainfall and scanty showers continue till Friday4th. Not likely to hamper the celebrations .

Outlook for next week: 29th September - 4th October

Mumbai: 

Substantial decrease in rains from Sunday, and almost negligible rains from Monday 30th Sept. thru Friday and 4th. October.Hotter and sunny days.

Initial days of "Navratri" celebrations may not be disturbed by showers. Later, after 5th, there could be evening thunder showers in Mumbai.

Monsoon not withdrawing at least till 8th October.

Pune: Very little and scanty rains during the next week, with hotter sunny days.

Initially, the "Navratri" celebrations may not  be affected, but there could be thunder showers in the evening after 5th October.

27th September 

Santacruz seasonal total crossed 3000 mms..

With 393mm of Rainfall in the last 4 days, Sept rainfall totals 582mm ⛈️

Santacruz seasonal Monsoon 2024 total stands at 3016 mm as of 27-09-2024 🌧️

 26th September 

Mumbai had very heavy rains on 21st to 25th ..these 4 days cumulative rainfall was 320 mms. Now that is 83% of the normal September rainfall total of 384 mms.

This year we have 507 mms in September till date..4 days still left.

The wettest  September ever was in 2019, with 1116 mms received. 

However,  this rain last few days is no record. Yesterday Santacruz recorded 170 mms in 24 hrs..while the 24 hrs record for September  is 318 mms in 1981.

Pune

Highest 24-hour rain for September at 133 mms. Beating previous record of 132.3 mms of 1938.

Seasonal total at 1184 mms

 25th Night 10,30 pm

Mumbai: Experienced very heavy rains sinceWednesday afternoon, some regions reaching 200 mms in 5 hrs !( See quantum till 9 pm below)

The outlook wold be :

25th Night: Rains diminishing after Mid Night,,down to light rain with the odd heavy shower. Morning readings will be between 15 -275 mms

26th: Heavy showers and thunder showers later in the day,.with heavy downpours. Another 100 mms on the cards.

 Pune:

25th Saw heavy consistent rains , with huge amounts.Pune Rainfall(mm) 17:30 dt. 25.09.2024, CHINCHWAD 127.5 SHIVAJINAGAR 124.0 WADGAONSHERI 71.5 KOREGAON PARK 63.0 NARAYANGOAN 55.0 NDA 42.0 

26th: Expecting heavy rains , maybe around half 50-80 mms during the day.

System BB 11 moving into Gujarat as mentioned.

 25th Night

Unbelievable rainfall last 3 hrs 

Last 3 hrs rainfall in mm in Mumbai (BMC) (top)

N WARD OFFICE 182

Tagore nagar mun. School Vikhroli 177

Mankhurd Fire station 210

Trombay municipal school 162

Maravali mun. school Chembur 146

Sewri mun school 128

Tembipada Bhandup mun school 123

Vihar Lake and wadala fire station 108

Club Vagaries 105

 AQI Tuesday Night..Mumbai & Pune..Can't Complain

New NE Records:

--------------------------------------------------------------

24th Early Morning Post:

The South-West Monsoon has commenced the withdrawal from extreme west Rajasthan and Northern tip of Kutch.

A 850 Level UAC, with embedded surface Low, will form in the Bay on 24th.

Tracking Westwards thru Odisha, Chattisgarh, M.P, into Maharashtra, it will move towards Gujarat and Kutch by 27th.

If the System tracks on course, there could be an inflow of moisture into the West Rajasthan and Kutch Regions.

As a result, this system will activate the West Coast Off Shore Trough from 24th thru 26th.Wind convergence will give heavy rains.

Mumbai:

24th: Increasing rain intensity,Frequent Heavy showers with thunder.

Rain expected 50-75 mms.

Alert👇

25th/26th: Rainy day...Very heavy rains with thunder. Local water logging possible in vulnerable areas. Rain amount 150-200 mms over 2 days. Isolated local areas can receive 200 mms

Pune:

24th/25th: Occasional showers throughout the day, with day temperature around 25c. Around 50 mms over 2 days.

26th: Heavy rains with thunder, and cool day. Around 50-75 mms rainfall.

Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Jalgaon, Dhule, Nandurbar, Nashik districts in interior Maharashtra can get moderate rain/thundershowers during 24th-25th. 

Rains may not be uniformly spread. Localized heavy thundershowers are also possible.

Gujarat: Southern areas such as Valsad/Surat may get some heavy rain during 26th-27th September. 

Moderate rains for Bharuch and Baroda regions. Light to moderate rain for Rajkot region of Saurashtra, but some heavy showers possible during 26th-27th in Junagadh region.

22nd September 

The estimated withdrawal of the South West Monsoon from Rajasthan on 24th...Will not deter an increase in rainfall in Maharashtra commencing week from 23rd.

Mumbai:

More rains next week.

Definitely monsoon coming back from Monday 23rd. Rainy days thru the week till Thursday 26th.

The coming days will see frequent rain spells some with thunder. About 100 -150 mms cumulative next 4 days.

Pune: An increase in rains next week with more rain spells next week. Could accumulate 50 -70 mms next week.

Cool days.

Next week will see good rains in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. 

 21st Post

Weather forecast from 21st to 23rd September:

Mumbai: Hot and humid weather...some showers/thundershowers developing in pockets of the city and suburbs during afternoon/evening. 

Thane, Palghar districts and Navi Mumbai regions can also receive some thundershowers.

Pune: Warm and humid days with thundershowers developing in the afternoon. Localized heavy showers possible.

Nashik, Ahilyanagar, Satara, Kolhapur regions can also get thunderstorms over the next 2-3 days.

 Posted 18th Afternoon:

Mumbai:

Much hear say about rains increasing, cyclones coming in end of September !

Vagaries' outlook for 

18th - 22nd September: Blend of cloudy and sunny weather with spells of passing showers.

23rd - 26th: Definite increase in rain frequency and more rains with occasional rains. But, no alert or panic scenes as we can expect around 30-40 mms/day. from 23rd. for 3/4 days.

Mumbai rainy season can extend into October.

Gujarat can extend into October also.

South West Monsoon withdrawal will commence from West Rajasthan by 23rd September.

Pune: Light showers in some parts till 23rd. Rain intensity and frequency increasing from 23rd for 3 days.

Sambhajinagar: No meaningfull rain next 3 days. Would advice farmers not to go in for cutting and harvesting of Maize crops as more rains expected from 25th for 3 days. Could damage cut crops if not covered.

संभाजीनगर : पुढील तीन दिवस पाऊस नाही. 25 तारखेपासून 3 दिवस आणखी पाऊस अपेक्षित असल्याने मका पिकांच्या कापणी आणि काढणीसाठी शेतकऱ्यांनी न जाण्याचा सल्ला द्यावा. कव्हर न केल्यास कापलेल्या पिकांचे नुकसान होऊ शकते.

Depression BB 10 Very active ...17th September

Rainfall From BB 10

 World Weather Page

Canberra shivers through coldest September morning ever as south-east Australia records freezing temperatures.

15th Evening Post:

BB-10 , Deep depression remained as D.D. for 12 hrs over G.West Bengal...

Creating a strong gush of Westerlies (towards the system) off Maharshtra Coast, penetrating into interiors

This resulted in frequent  heavy showers in Mumbai on Sunday.

Some Rainfall amounts in 12 hrs ended 5.30 pm :

Ghansoli 40 mms

BMC ,B Ward 38 mms,

Borivali 33mms, 

Matunga 30 mms,

Ghatkopar 27 mms,

Airoli 25 mms,

Marol 25 mms,

Clu Vagaries 26 mms,

Haji Ali 23 mms,

Scruz AWS 23 mms,

Versova 22 mms,

Colaba AWS 22mms, 

Malabar Hill 15 mms,

Worli 10 mms,

Mumbai: Week from 16th to 20th will see much less rainfall. Few passing showers in patches.

Pune : Light rains in patches. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kinnaur Experiences First Snowfall, Cold Wave Grips Himachal Pradesh

September 13, 2024

admin Himachal Headlines

Several high-altitude areas of Kinnaur district woke up to a picturesque sight on Thursday morning as light snowfall blanketed the region, marking the onset of a cold wave. Popular spots such as Kalpa, Nichar, and Pooh received fresh snow, while the peaks of Nakdam, Nithal, Thach, Ranikanda, and Kinnaur Kailash were wrapped in white. In Batseri, snow accumulation reached up to seven centimeters, covering Sangla Kanda, Shoshala Peak, and Sigan Hills.

Lower-lying parts of Kinnaur weren’t left untouched either, as they experienced steady rainfall, further intensifying the chilly atmosphere. The sudden drop in temperature has taken many by surprise, signaling the arrival of winter-like conditions across the region.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Summer snow adorns the Alps in its most beautiful form, and more is expected in the coming days

2024-09-143:03PM

هشام جمال

كاتب مُحتوى جوّي

  Large areas of central Europe are affected by an early cold wave and the formation of a low pressure system on Friday, accompanied by heavy rains and thunderstorms. Snow also fell heavily and accumulated in large thicknesses over the European Alps mountain range due to the coldness of the various layers of the atmosphere and the high altitude of these mountain ranges above sea level.

Arab Weather -

 13th September 

Early Snowfall in Higher Reaches of Uttarakhand. 

Latest on Enso

ENSO ALERT SYSTEM:

El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months. El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. Final El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued after El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended.

Posted 12th Night

Now, BB 10 forming soon

 

 

 11th September:

Another Well Marked Low intensifies into a depression on Land:

Feeder Bands give some showers to Mumbai on Wednesday 11th

 

US weather: Arctic chill to bring snow as temperatures hit ‘record lows’...See World Weather News Page

 Resultant rains in Chattisgarh 👇

 BB 9 TODAY

Gujarat

Posted 8th. 

--------------------------------

Decreasing rains for Gujarat now.

A moderate spell on 10th/11/12th for Gujarat Region (Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar, Aravalli, Kheda, Ahmedabad, Anand,  Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dang, Tapi, Navsari, Valsad) and Coastal  & Eastern Saurashtra. 

After the 13th, the rain intensity and frequency will decline to almost dry conditions.  

Hotter days then.

vagarieswk.blogspot.com..updated

7th September:

But, good rainfall in East Rajasthan before Monsoon Withdraws:

Vagaries' Views

7th September 

Indications of timely Monsoon withdrawal from extreme NW India.

Normal date is 17th September. 

-----------------------------------------------------

Vagaries' expects,  along with latest NWP model forecasts, a timely withdrawal of monsoon rains  from extreme North Western parts of India and adjoining Pakistan by the third week of September.

  Lower tropospheric anticyclones/ridges are trying to make frequent attempts to establish over NW India.These are indications seen.

This could could interact with the weakening seasonal background monsoon circulation to initiate dry processes associated with monsoon withdrawal.

 Until then, the monsoon circulation and moist processes will continue over central and eastern parts of India (core monsoon zone) leading to marginally enhanced rainfall in these regions. 

All India cumulative rainfall rainfall departure in the past 24 hours has started decreasing and stood at + 7.8 % yesterday.

Compiled by Vag.Gokul 

 6th September..

Mumbai Santacruz Rainfall touches the 2500 mms mark today, and stands at 2501 mms.

Thus touching the Normal for the full season which is 2502 mms.

----------------------------------------------------------

Parts of the U.S. braces for the first significant cold air mass intrusion of the Fall season 2024

By AuthorMarko Korosec

Posted onPublished: 04/09/2024

CategoriesGlobal weather

September starts with nice and dry fall weather, but more dramatic weather changes are shaping up on the horizon late this week and over the weekend. A frontal system emerging from the Midwest will cross the Great Lakes and the Northeast by Saturday, resulting in stormy weather and local heavy rain. Behind the front, significantly colder air from central Canada spreads deep south across the eastern third of the U.S.

Link Shown in Right Side of this blog in "Links"

vagarieswk.blogspot.com/

Forecast for next 8 days

Pune forecast

5-7 September: 2-3 passing light rain spells of short duration, not more than 1-3mm/day.

8-10 September: An odd drizzle per day, no significant rain, significant sunshine, generally dry.

11-12 September: 1-2 light rain spells of short duration, no major rain.

Mumbai forecast

5-7 September: 2-3 short spells of moderate rain/day.

8-12 September: 1-2 spells of light rain, no major rain.

Delhi forecast

5-7 September: 1-2 spells of short duration of rain per day.

8-12 September: generally dry.

The forecast will be reviewed again on 7th September.

 

4th September: 

Good Rainfall in Marathwada and Sambhajinagar first 3 days of September boosts prospects of very good crops and improves the water storage in this normally deficient region.

Rainfall in mms:

पैठण / Jayakwadi Dam - Paithan, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar. At 85% of its full capacity of 2,170,930 million litres.

The dam is the primary source of water for irrigation, drinking and industrial use in eight districts of the Marathwada region, including major industries in Aurangabad and Jalna, as well as to nearly 2.5 lakh hectares of farmland.

Lower Manar Dam - Nanded. At 100.00% of its full capacity of 138,210 million litres, compared to 52.56% at the same time last year.

Sambhajinagar Region will get reduced rains this week, around 5-7 mms per day, with some needed sunshine.

संभाजीनगरात पुढील ५ ते ६ दिवस कमी पाऊस पडेल. आता थोडासा सूर्यप्रकाश हवा आहे.

Mumbai will get some passing local showers till this weekend. Sunny periods will make it warmer.
Thursday may get more frequent showers with around 30 mms of rains.

 3rd September:

Bharuch gets excessive rainfall last 24 hrs..and continues on Tuesday 3rd..Staionary system for 2 days is the reason.

Moderate, though lesser, rains will continue till Thursday...around 20-30 mms/day.

Today's rains in Gujarat Region