Sunday, August 31, 2014

Posted Sunday Night:
Come September ! 
(Only significant rain events elaborated).
Monday 1st September, the current UAC moves West/ North-Westwards and brings Heavy Rain to West MP, Eastern Gujarat region, South Gujarat Coast and parts of North Central Maharashtra (Aurangabad, Jalgaon, Akola, Nasik). 
Rains reduce in Konkan.

Monday Night into Tuesday 2nd, Showers increase in Coastal Saurashtra.

Monday and Tuesday due to moisture inflow, patches of rain are possible in North Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Delhi NCR.

Tuesday Night/Wednesday 3rd, rains move into rest of Gujarat including Kutch. Increase in rains in NW India States. 

On 2nd September, from the pulse from the erstwhile UAC, AS-1 forms as a Low near the West Gujrat/Pakistan border. Kutch and adjoining Sindh may get heavy showers in patches.

Pakistan:
2nd September, Rains also move into South and SE Sindh, Upper Sindh, adjoining Pak Punjab, almost covering roughly the Eastern half of Pakistan. ( Sukkur, Hydreabad, Nawabshah included).
Punjab cities ( Lahore, Gujrat, Multan ) can get thunder showers.

Thunder Showers in Karachi Tuesday Night through Wednesday. There is a possibility of heavy rains on Saturday next, but we wait before confirming.
Heavy Falls in MP on all days.

Delhi NCR: The odd shower on Monday in some patches. Rains increase on Wednesday and regions may get around 20-25 mms.

Mumbai: Reduced rain intensity on Monday, with some evening showers could be heavy. Rains around 35 mms.
Lessening intensity on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Pune: another Thunder shower on Monday, and some decrease in rains from Tuesday.


No significant rains developing around Hyderabad.
Seems that the axis shifting South has forced the Bay winds to push eastwards into North India plains. This may delay the earlier announced formation of BB-8.

Monday Stats and Analysis coming up on this Page from GSB ...this article moves to Current Weather Page
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Situation as on Sunday Evening: BB-7 remains as a UAC over Central India...Monsoon Axis has shifted across into Central India...Outlook next few days and AS-1 forming chances coming here by tonite

Maharashtra Rains as on 31st August Morning: Harnai 194 mms, Ratnagiri 172 mms, Dapoli 168 mms Shriwardhan 153 mms, Matheran 83 mms, Lonaval 47 mms and Mahableshwar 42 mms.

Some of the Heavy Rainfall amounts in cms from Saurashtra as on 31st Morning: Kalavad (dist Jamnagar) 14, Upleta (dist Rajkot) 14, Ranavav (dist Porbandar) 14, Jetpur (dist Rajkot) 13, Kutiana (dist Porbandar) 11, Rajula (dist Amreli) 11, Gandhidham (dist Kutch) 9, Dhoraji (dist Rajkot) 9, Savarkundala_arg (dist Amreli) 8, Una (dist Junagarh) 8, Umrala (dist Bhavnagar) 8.

Mumbai Rains for last 24 hrs ended 5.30 pm IST 31st August: CST Terminal 122 mms, Dadar 135 mms, Worli 115 mms, Grant Road 140 mms, Colaba 130 mms and Vagaries 140 mms.

Colaba Rainfall from 8.30 - 5.30 pm IST: Colaba 49 mms,  Scruz 37 mms. Vagaries 62 mms

Comparison of Forecast and Actual for Sunday 31st: (Just Comparing)


Friday, August 29, 2014

Sunday Afternoon: BB-7 as a Low has almost fizzled out...UAC remains intact..
As expected, a rainy Sunday in Mumbai with frequent showers and occasional thunder...Vagaries reading from 08.30 am -2.30 pm : 61 mms.

Posted Friday 29th Evening:

BB-7 !...Thats the Low now of the AP/Odisha coast. The system has an upper air circulation also, upto the 500 level. 
Seeing the current situation, system would expect a weak low at sea level to track West/North-West and weaken, along the track as the sea level trough comes Southwards. The UAC associated with it remains strong and effective..all along a Southern Path.
The vagaries Map shows the two fold Track


The pulse from the system, gives rise to another UAC, West of Gujarat by Monday, 1st September. 
AS-1 ( at sea level) may form by 2nd and travel West, and bring rains to Sindh Coast and South Pakistan from Tuesday 2nd ....will update on Sunday. 



Another UAC/Low starts forming in the North Bay on 2nd September.... 

Only light isolated rain showers likely in Punjab till Monday. The rainfall remains scanty and isolated. No meaningful system or change seen. 

Mumbai:
Saturday 30th: Day starts as cloudy and rains ( Thunder showers) increase from late afternoon into night. By Sunday morning, City would record around 30 mms.
Sunday 31st: An overcast and rainy day with intermittent heavy showers. Heavy spells with thunder in ceratin parts may cause some regional flooding . Rains on Sunday may be around 75 mms.
Monday 1st Sept: Occasional showers continue, though less than Sunday. Maybe around 25-30 mms.

Pune: Saturday and Sunday: Heavy rains and thunder showers from Late Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will measure around 30 mms and Saturday night into Sunday may see around 25-30 mms.

Surat:
Rainfall increasing from Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday sees heavy and intermittent rains and thunder showers.
Same for Bharuch.

Nagpur : Chance of heavy thunder storm on Saturday evening/night.
Hyderabad: Chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday Night and possible showers on Sunday morning.
Rain showers and occasional showers continue  for the next 3 days in Raipur and Bhubaneshwar.

Delhi NCR remains almost dry, except for an odd regional spotty shower on Monday 1st September. Good increase in rains seen from 3rd.

Pakistan gets the benefit of the AS-1 system from Tuesday. Coastal Sindh, and regions in Southern Sindh may start getting the rains from Tuesday 2nd September.
Karachi can get clouds and showers on Tuesday. Dust or thunderstorm possible in Sindh Hyderabad, Mirpur and Nawabshah regions on Tuesday.
An isolated localised storm likely in Islamabad and near by vicinity. 

Only Moderate and Heavy Rains Shown here

Article in Lokmat Times on Aurangabad of Saturday 31st August...on Current Weather Page

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Showers in NCR on 27th and 28th as forecasted in Sunday Post....


Posted Thursday Morning: A Low has formed off the AP/South Odisha coast at 17N in the Bay..

UAC has formed in the Central Bay, off the North AP/South Odisha Coast. Fairly strong at Upper Levels, it will descend as a Low in the same region by 28th. Numbering i will be decided tomorrow. Vagaries does not expect it to remaina s Low, but as a Strong UAC and track Westwards..

Orissa monsoon rains (1 Jun - 26 Aug 2014) 

Top 3 rainy subdivisions ( 1 Jun to 26 Aug 2014):

1) Coastal Karnataka : 257 cms (-5%)
2) Konkan and Goa : 211 cms (-15 %)
3) Kerala : 173 cms (-1 %)

Orissa has received 92 cms (+7 %)

    (please click to enlarge)

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Posted Tuesday Night: On Wednesday 27th, an UAC will most likely form in the Central Bay, around 15N and 85E. Around the 700 level, it could descend to form a sea level low in the same region and then track Westwards...more on this when the forecast for Thursday onwards is put up..


Posted Sunday 24th Night..

Initial Indication of Season Change is seen at 200 mb levels. Jet streams have become Westerly above the 25N line. Monsoon can see a change in the next 10 days...

A trough off the West Coast of India remains active.
A UAC could form in the trough somewhere around South Konkan.

On Tuesday, we can expect an interaction of North winds and West winds around N.I.Karnataka regions.

Monday 25th August: 
Heavy Rainfall Regions: South Konkan. 
Later in the day, Complete interior regions East of Mumbai covering Eastern Townships. Central and Eastern Saurahtra covering Rajkot, Ahemadabad, North Junagadh and Amreli and Bhavnagar districts.
Moderate Rainfall: N.I. Karnataka (Belgaum) and adjoining Telengana (Hyderabad). Marathwada and rest of Maharashtra State. South Rajasthan (Udaipur).
Coastal Odisha South of Bhubaneshwar and adjoining interior regions.



Tuesday 26th August: 
Heavy Rainfall: South Konkan, Eastern Telengana and adjoining AP,Aurangabad, Ahmednagar, N.I.Karnataka (Belgaum), 
Moderate Rains in South Gujarat (more interior), Rest of Madhya Mah and Marathwada and Karnataka.



Wednesday 27th August:
Heavy Rainfall continues in Madhya Maharashtra.
Rains in Karnataka and interior Maharashtra continue in Marathwada, though reduced. South Konkan continues to get thunder showers.
Light showers in North rajasthan, West UP and Delhi/Haryana.
Light showers in Delhi on Wednesday 27th and 28th August.
Rains reducing in Eastern India.

Mumbai City: 
Monday and Tuesday: Partly cloudy with sunny periods. Showers in parts of city indicating different intensities in pockets. Evening showers in South Mumbai.
Overall rain average will be around 25-30 mms /day. 
Eastern Townships get heavy thunder showers. Northern township regions it seems may get showers late Monday night.
Wednesday: Mainly cloudy, with rain showers in most parts of city. Rain amount will be around 35 mms average.

Pune: Monday and Tuesday: An afternoon/evening thunder shower. But variable in intensity in different parts. Waiting for Wednesday and Thursday, as we see major increase in rains. Rains in excess of 45 mms. ( Could change if the LWD fails to develop).

Bangalore: Light showers in vicinity continues into next week.

Hyderabad: Showers or thundershowers on Monday. On Wednesday, heavy showers may reoccur. 

Pakistan : Moderate rainfall in Northern divisions.Islamabad gets the shower. Parts of Upper Sindh may get the dust or thunder storm.
Karachi partly cloudy and hot. 


Article appearing in Lokmat Times on Monday 25th August...Current Weather Page

Saturday, August 23, 2014

DROUGHT LIKE CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST PLAINS !!!

North India especially the northern plains are experiencing one of the disastrous monsoon this year. There's hardly any rain in the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi & West UP from the beginning of the monsoon season. Most of the districts are under deficient category while many are under scanty category.

Punjab & Haryana(including Chandigarh & Delhi) are the only two subdivisions which are under scanty category as per the data available till 22nd August. Punjab subdivision is bearing a deficit of -62% whereas Haryana division tops the table with -63% rain deficit since June 1. Also West UP is having rain deficit of -54%.
Now let's have a look at the district wise rainfall figures of the northern states...
ACCORDING TO IMD NORMS, RAINFALL IS CATEGORISED AS
 EXCESS [+20% or More]
NORMAL [+19% to -19%]  
 DEFICIENT [ -20% to -59%] 
 SCANTY [-60% to -99%]  
NO RAIN [-100%]
Data is available upto 20 August...





  PICS COURTESY: IMD

Days are getting terribly hot. Hissar has touched 40c, and as expected in vagaries, Delhi AirPort touched 39.6c.....

Friday, August 22, 2014

 Posted Friday Night: Western Mah heavy rains today . till 8.30 pm IST, 33 mms in Pune, 36 mms in Aurangabad and 41 mms in Nasik. 17 mms in Scruz and 6 mms at Colaba

Outlook for Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd August:

Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd: Thunder showers with heavy falls likely on both days along the North-South stretch from North Madhya Maharastra ( Nasik region) down Southwards into Nagar, Pune , Kolhapur, Solapur and Interior Karnataka regions (Bangalore included).
Thunder showers also will be heavy in "interior" Konkan and coastal Karnataka.
Heavy falls in patches will be around 75-100 mms.

Saturday evening will see thunder showers in Marathwada also and Showers possible in Saurashtra and Surat region.

In Pakistan, Karachi area gets light rain on late Friday night/Saturday morning.Islamabad can get a few showers.

Sunday 24th: Rains decrease in the above region. Increase in rainfall in Goa.
Rains increasing in Odisha from Monday.

Mumbai: Thundery conditions and cloudy with some parts getting rain. Saturday night, Mumbai City can get heavy showers, spilling into Sunday morning. With thunder/lightning, guage can measure 35-45 mms by Sunday morning.
Very heavy rain likely in Eastern outer townships on Saturday evening.
Pune: Thunder showers on Friday, and heavier on Saturday. Possibily >35 mms on Saturday.

Kolkata: Showers likely upto 15 mms on Friday, decreasing in the weekend with sunny spells.

Delhi NCR: Only what i can write is days might touch 40c and nights 30c ! 
Parts of Delhi NCR showed the maximum at Palam was 39.3 c on Thursday. Nights could be warm at 29-30c.

Nagpur may get heavy thunder showers in the region on Friday and Saturday.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

 Thursday Morning,21st August, Mumbai got a surprise thunder shower around early morning....details and pic on Mumbai Page

Thunder Showers in Marathwada expected on Thursday 21st. Also N.I. Karnataka could be affected. Showers in Hyderabad .
Maximum Temperature in Colaba was 27.8c and Min 27.0c...Cloudy with little rains..
South Mumbai Wed.Afternoon


The Eighth Vagarians' Meet is Planned on 24th Sunday at 5 pm IST...Now, this is an Important Meet, and ALL must attend...all in Mumbai, Pune Surat, Belgaum and outer townships MUST come...Meeting at "Atria" Mall, Worli...Please confirm.

All India SWM Toppers from 01.06.2014 to 15.08.2014 (75 days into the monsoon) 
                                                                      
One station each made it to the list from Kerala (Kuttiyadi) and Tamil Nadu (Chinnakallar). The king Mawsynaram takes back the lead after getting huge rainfall in last 4 days.

Top 50 stations in mm (min 3500 mm)

  1. Mawsyanram, Meghalaya - 6850
  2. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 5785
  3. Hulikal, Karnataka - 5715
  4. Tamini, Maharashtra - 5650
  5. Yadur, Karnataka - 5562
  6. Agumbe, Karnataka - 5420
  7. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 5401
  8. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 5165
  9. Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 5094
  10. Mulshi, Maharashtra - 5030
  11. Nilkund, Karnataka - 4968
  12. Shiragaon, Maharashtra - 4900
  13. Cogar, Karnataka - 4819
  14. Dawdi, Maharashtra - 4700
  15. Naladi, Karnataka - 4700
  16. Kollur, Karnataka - 4512
  17. Mahabaleshwar, Maharashtra - 4476
  18. Aralagod, Karnataka - 4317
  19. Amboli, Maharashtra - 4301
  20. Kitwade, Maharashtra - 4288
  21. Kerekatte, Karnataka - 4271
  22. Bandal, Karnataka - 4271
  23. Kuttiyadi, Kerala - 4146
  24. Bhagamandala, Karnataka - 4150
  25. Castle Rock, Karnatak - 4144
  26. Navaja, Maharashtra - 4050
  27. Koyna, Maharashtra - 3980
  28. Gavali, Karnataka - 3967
  29. Kanakumbi, Karnataka - 3950
  30. Kigga, Karnataka - 3898
  31. Gersoppa, Karnataka - 3879
  32. Halageri, Karnataka - 3855
  33. Dabbaedka, Karnataka - 3845
  34. Bhira, Maharashtra - 3821
  35. Byakody, Karnataka - 3807
  36. Arendur, Karnataka - 3800
  37. Gokarna, Karnataka - 3762
  38. Dajipur, Maharashtra - 3755
  39. Dungerwadi, Maharashtra - 3750
  40. Chinnakallar, Tamil Nadu - 3700
  41. Radhanagari, Maharashtra - 3608
  42. Maranahalli, Karnataka - 3595
  43. Mandakuli, Maharashtra - 3578
  44. Kerveshe, Karnataka - 3553
  45. Mallikarjuna, Karnataka - 3543
  46. Gaganbawada, Maharashtra - 3536
  47. Amagaon, Karnataka - 3509 (till 28th July)
  48. Kuchur, Karnataka - 3500
  49. Maageri, Karnataka - 3500
  50. Shanthahalli, Karnataka - 3500
Lamaj and other station rainfall from Maha Agri records are not considered as reliable. Hence, they are excluded.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

India State Capital Rains till 17th August. Graphic by Rohit Aroskar on Rohit's Page

Dont Miss it...See Space News Page..A Spectacular Dawn Conjunction of Venus and Jupiter Set For August 18th

See Current Weather Page for Saturday Night Posting and Latest on Axis and Synoptic Situation


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONSOON REPORT (1-8-2014 TO 15-8-2014)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 15-8-2014) 490.4 mm
SEASON +/- -17%
RAINFALL THIS FORTNIGHT (from 1-8-2014) 137.2 mm
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->    mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm 4.56
AVERAGE                                890   mm 8.69
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm 13.25
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY  6.45 mm
AVERAGE RAINFALL PER DAY THIS FORTNIGHT 9.15 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE AUG NORMAL (262 mm) 7.8 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT    mm
COASTAL KARNATAKA 717.4
KERALA 429.9
KONKAN & GOA 391.9
ODISHA 265.3
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 261.0
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS FORTNIGHT     mm
N. I. KARNATAKA 31.5
TELANGANA 30.2
HAR. CHD & DELHI 28.1
MARATHWADA 28.0
RAYALASEEMA 16.0
TOP FOUR SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (as on 15th August)   
ODISHA 15%
S. I. KARNATAKA 14%
EAST RAJASTHAN 11%
A & N ISLAND 3%
BOTTOM SIX SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (as on 15th August)
JAMMU & KASHMIR -47%
WEST U.P. -49%
TELANGANA -53%
HAR. CHD & DELHI -58%
PUNJAB -60%
MARATHWADA -61%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-8-2014)    24 (32%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2014 to 15-8-2014)    52 (68%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN AUGUST TILL DATE      7 (47%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN AUGUST TILL DATE      8 (53%)
source -IMD

Friday, August 15, 2014

Monsoon Stats and Analysis till Date coming up here on Saturday Morning..Prepared by GSB

Monsoon Toppers till 15th August will be up on this Page on Sunday Morning ...Prepared by PJ
There was colossal rains in Nepal. Chisapani 493 mms, Birendarnagar 427 mms, Dang 232 mms, Nepalgunj 172 mms, Dhangadi 147 mms.
Expected floods down stream in Bihar, UP plains and Bangladesh.


MAHARASHTRA & surroundings ..MONSOON RAIN IN CMS (ALONGWITH WESTERN GHATS).. 1 JUN - 15 AUG 2014 

 
 [CLICK TO ENLARGE] .. [best viewed on P.C. or Laptop]

SUB-DIVISION WISE -

1) KONKAN & GOA - 200 CMS (-10%)  , LARGEST CITY : MUMBAI
2) VIDARBHA - 47 CMS (-25 %)LARGEST CITY : NAGPUR
3) MADHYA MAHARASHTRA - 41 CMS (-16%) LARGEST CITY : PUNE
4) MARATHWADA- 16 CMS (-60%)LARGEST CITY : AURANGABAD







Thursday, August 14, 2014

Posted Thursday Night:
Weekend Forecast and Weather Situation:

Friday 15th :
North and East: Light to medium rain expected in Punjab, Haryana, UP and Gangetic W.Bengal. Heavy falls in HP and Himalayn W.Bengal, Sikkim and NE States.
West and Central: Light showers in some regions of Saurashtra, Konkan and MP. Dry in Rajasthan and Marathwada.
South: Light rains in Interior Karnataka, Madhya Mah, Vidarbh and Kerala. Heavy falls in coastal Karnataka.

Pakistan: Light rains in coastal Sindh. Heavier falls in Pak Punjab. 

Saturday 16th:
Rains decreasing in most regions mentioned for Friday. Except coastal Karnataka, Kerala, W. Bengal and NE States.
Dry in Rajasthan, West MP, Vidharbha, Marathwada and Telengana.
In Pakistan, rains decrease in Coastal Sindh. But continue in Pak Punjab and Western Pakistan areas..

Sunday 17th: Decerase in Overall Rainfall. Light to medium rains with  heavy rain regions in coastal Karnataka and parts of Kerala..
Dry in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat (except South coastal), West UP. 

Showers decrease in Pak Punjab, but isolated in Western Pakistan regions.

Mumbai:
Friday and Saturday: Partly cloudy with sunny periods. Few passing showers will bring around 10-15 mms per day.
Sunday: Decrease in rains. Sunny and some passing showers. Accumulating 7-10 mms.
Monday onwards seems to be hotter and drier.

Delhi NCR:
Thunder showers in parts on Friday afternoon or evening. Saturday again, a thunder shower may pop up in some area, spilling into Sunday early morning. Weather clears, and rains decrease from Sunday ...dya getting hot from Monday.

Pune: Weekend will see some light rains in parts of the city. Otherwise partly cloudy.

Nagpur: dry and warm weekend. Rains possible increasing later next week.

Bangalore: Thunder shower possible in some parts of Bangalore or vicinity. Rains increasing later next week.
Chennai: Thunder shower or rains possible on Friday night in many parts of Chennai. Saturday and Sunday may see the odd shower in parts.

Karachi: Light rain possible on Friday or early Saturday. Almost dry from Sunday into next week.
Islamabad gets some rain on Friday and Saturday. But Gujrat in Pak Punjab can get heavy rains on Friday night..maybe more than 25-30 mms.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Weekend Weather Situation will be posted on Thursday Night: Highlights are weak systems forming along Coastal Sindh and Western End of Monsoon axis. UAC tracking towards TN coast.

New York Deluge !!!An Entire Summer's Worth of Rain Fell on New York in Just a Few Hours !!!

Islip on Long Island received 13.26" of rain in the past 24 hours, preliminarily setting a new all time NYS record 24 hour rainfall! And that includes 136 mms in 1 hour...
Commuters across the Northeast woke to widespread flash flooding after intense storms rumbled through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning dumping over 13 inches of rain across the Long Island area.
Islip, New York, received an overwhelming record of 13.05 inches of rain since midnight as of 8:00 EDT Wednesday morning. The total eclipsed what the area usually receives over the course of an entire summer according to Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather.com meteorologist.
"They average 11.68 inches in all of meteorological summer (June through August)," she said.
More Reports: Daily News', Mashable.

Latest : Baltimore -Washington International Airport received 160 mms rain in 24 hrs ended today, and Atlantic City Airport measured 142 mms in last 24 hrs.




Monday, August 11, 2014

Update Posted on Tuesday Night...on Current Weather Page..

SUBDIVISION RAINS ..TOP 5  LEAST RAINY AND MOST RAINY SUBDIVISIONS .. RAIN IN CMS .. 1 JUN - 11 AUG 2014 ..ALSO INFO ON THE CORRESPONDING SUBDIVISIONS

(PLEASE CLICK TO ENLARGE)

..MAHARASHTRA IS THE ONLY STATE FEATURING IN BOTH ..LEAST AND MOST RAINY SUBDIVISIONS ..

..1) HARYANA , CH & DELHI IS THE DRIEST..
..2) COASTAL KARNATAKA IS THE WETTEST..

..WEST RAJASTHAN (DESERT) JUST SLIPS OUT OF THE LEAST RAINY SUBDIVISIONS ..AT 6TH PLACE

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Posted Sunday Night:

No major system coming our way next week. The Eastern UAC fizzles out and forms and elongated trough east -west. The Western end of the trough develops a circulation and creates a UAC over MP/Rajasthan border on Monday.

On Monday, Rains likely for a day over the region. heavy rains in Udaipur, Kota, Ujjain and Bhopal regions.

Weak anti cyclone clockwise winds aloft during the week over North Pakistan and adjoining NW India. I do not want to jump to any conclusion (on withdrawal) now as the clock wise winds are weak and could change direction soon.
Almost no rains expected in Pakistan. 
Also in India, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana Delhi and North MP and West UP see decreased rains.
Almost no meaningful rains in the Peninsula South of Gujarat/Maharashtra. 
The West coast regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka also get less rains, though could average around 20-30 mms in places.

Major reduction in Kerala next week.

Rains increase in Nepal and Uttarakhand from Tuesday as the axis moves into the Himalayas. Heavy rains expected in Kathmandu middle of next week.
Increasing precipitation in Sikkim, Bhutan , North Bengal and NE States.

Mumbai: Passing showers in the next few days. Frequency and intensity decreases from Tuesday. Daily around 15-20 mms.

Delhi NCR: Rainfall in parts on Monday. Decrease after Tuesday.Rise in day temperatures.

Surat: After getting Showers on Monday, rainfall decreases after Tuesday.

Kolkata : Heavy showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cloudy and overcast conditons next week.

Though we have a weak Easterly pulse in the Southern Bay later this week, we would have to wait and see the intensity to gauge the rainfall in Chennai on Thursday or Friday.


No meaningful rains in Karachi and Sindh. Just about some light rains end of week in Pak Punjab and Islamabad.




Delhi NCR received its weekend ( Sunday) showers, and adjoining areas got showers.Many Vagarians reporting rain from Delhi and Meerut.
Delhi Pic by Mohan


Etawah in West UP got 5 cms and Mathura 2 cms. Naraingarh (Haryana) also got 5 cms.
In Punjab, by Sunday morning, Gurdaspur, Madhopur and Jalandhar got 5 cms.
Kasauli ( HP) managed 11 cms.
In Goa Sanguem got 7 cms, Margao and Mapusa got 5 cms anf Panjim got 42 mms till Sunday morning and  mms in the day on Sunday (till 5.30 pm).

By Sunday Morning, Mumbai City got 19 mms at Colaba and 29 mms at Scruz...Matheran recorded 22 mms.

We had mentioned 2 UACs in our previous post.  UAC over W.Bengal and the UAC over Kutch are fizzling out by Sunday night as expected.
Now what next week....Coming up tonite.

Today is the last day for putting your entries for Vagaries August Contest  - Link for posting your entries.

Friday, August 08, 2014

Posted Friday Night:


Both the UACs mentioned yesterday have done their job...
We can see the Eastren UAC bringing rains to the coastal Delta region..with Kolkata getting 9.8 mms till 5.30 pm
and Kutch also getting rain on Friday, like New Kandla 58 mms, Bhuj 19 mms and Kandla AP 14 mms. Porbandar on the Saurashtra coast received 59 mms (All Gujarat rainfall from 8.30 am -5.30 pm IST Friday).
No meaningful rains in Sindh.

Mumbai Scruz got 14 mms and Colaba 6 mms till 8.30 pm IST Friday..

Saturday and Sunday, Vagaries forecast seems to be on schedule, and could be on same lines mentioned on Thursday Night Post (Below). Axis Moves Northwards, and UACs getting weaker.

Increasing rains in Chattisgarh and UP and adjoing MP and showers in NCR.


Posted Thursday Night>..Weekend forecast...

BB-6 behaved on expected lines. 
Parts of Saurastra received rains on Wednesday, and on and went into the East Rajasthan region and poured 274 mms in Bhinay (Ajmer Dist), Hurda (Bhilwara) 257 mms, Jayal 155 mms and 116 mms in Kota and 43 mms over Udaipur on Wednesday as expected. 
However, parts of Punjab shown in light blue colour for Wednesday, received fair rains. Chandigarh got 10 mms, Patiala 30 mms, Ambala 39 mms.
Most of Punjab remains heavily deficit.




The expected rians in NCR was less than expected, and only Southern parts got light rains on Wednesday. 
Karachi airport got very light drizzles , just 0.1 mms as on Thursday morning. Islamabad got 17 mms and Lahore received 9 mms.

A UAC moves into Gangetic West Bengal and Coastal Bangladesh. Being weak, it would dissipate soon in the region. Rains in coastal delta on Friday, and heavy in many regions.

Another UAC over Kutch. Being feeble, it would move West into the SE Sndh coast and dissolve. Friday rains in Kutch would move into Sindh and coastal Sindh on Saturday.
Karachi cold be cloudy with light rains.
Sunday weather rains decrease and cease in this region.

The axis moves North towards the Northern plains of India from Saturday. Moderate rains and thunder showers could be possible in Delhi NCR and adjoining UP, Haryana and North MP on Saturday and Sunday.
East UP, East MP and Chattisgarh may get heavy showers on Sunday due to an upper level trough
Pak Punjab could see some rains being the Western end of the axis.

Saturday onwards, almost negligible rains in the Central region, interior peninsula and Southern peninsula. 
Bangalore cloudy with few showers in the vicinity.
West coast gets moderate rains with Karnataka coastal towns getting 35-50 mms. Good rains in Goa this weekend.

Mumbai: 
Friday : Partly cloudy with sunny periods.. Showers at intervals and a few can be sharp and heavy. 15-20 mms
Saturday: Partly cloudy with passing showers, particularly in the early evening and night. 20 mms
Sunday: Sunny and passing showers. Few heavy in some parts of city in the day time and less by night. 20 mms
Average rain per day: 15-20 mms.
Outer townships will also get passing showers. sunday afternoon may see longer spells..


Delhi NCR: Good chances and sighns of thunder showers in parts on Saturday late afternoon and on Sunday. 

Monsoon Watch - 2...2018 ....22nd April Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1...  Position as on 21st April : 1.Cross...