Wednesday, October 29, 2008
I maintain, that the dry spell will last in the southern regions of India till about the 4th. of November. Around the 4th./5th., an easterly wave can bring some rainshowers to TN and coastal AP. No organised sysytem is seen forming till the first week of November in the bay.
In fact, a stationary ridge over the Arabian Sea and west coast of India will result in clear skies and slightly "warmish" days over the west/nortwest India and central /southern Pakistan.
Night temperatures have not dipped much over the sub-continent since my last write-up. Only the extreme north region, Ladakh, has seen a fall in the minimum temperatures, with Leh dropping to -5c.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
As a result of the strengthening , much of the moisture and rain clouds in the bay and in the southern peninsula today, will gradually get pulled towards the system. Resultantly, rains will decrease from the coastal regions and interiors of TN in the next 24hrs., and from coastal and interior AP after 36hrs.
Much rain, would now gain and concentrate in the Orissa, W.Bengal regions in the next few days.The system, cyclone "Abe" if named (Ashokbhai corrects me and informs the name will be "Rashmi"), would strike the WB/Banladesh coast around 28th.
Thus, I see a respite from rains for TN and AP from 26th./27th. The lull in the rains may last till the 4th. of November, when the effect of the system will wear off, and allow the easterly waves from the bay to bring back rain bearing clouds.
The bay depression is pulling in all the moisture from the weak low in the south Arabian Sea as well. The current rains in the southern peninsula is a result of the rain clouds being dragged across the land towards the east. Hence, this system in the western sea is expected to fizzle out soon.
Remarkably low temperature ( for this time of October),of 11.6c was recorded at Pune today, 25th.October, 18c is normal. Several stations in Maharashtra had 12c (Nasik and Ahmednagar).
In the extreme north, winter has started setting in the Kashmir/ HP regions. In HP, first snowfall has been recorded in the Rohtang Pass, and all the higher reaches. Kalpa and Keylong have recorded 0c as their lowest temperatures this season. In Kashmir, the low in Srinagar is now 4c, and -1c in Leh during the last 2 nights.
Next blog update of the cyclone and winter progress will be on 29th.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
All on schedule! The south -west monsoon has given way to the north-east monsoon on the 14th. of October. As yet no organised system is seen in the bay, so, as mentioned, the rains will not be widespread in the south. The ICTZ having moved south, to almost 5N, is cause of the belt of rain clouds seen in satellite images on the southern tip of India and below.
But a low is forecasted in the bay during the week 21-28 October. Its intensification needs to be observed, though a few models have projected a cyclone in the bay by the 24th. I would wait for the advancing W.D., now a couple of days away, and then determine the bay system's movement.
The anticipitated low in the Arabian Sea has formed, and is now at 5N. Its movement is projected towards Oman, on intensification, but I would not rush into any forecasting now !
Meanwhile, a fairly active W.D. has whitewashed the upper hills of Kashmir with the first snow, and the plains of north India with winter rains. A sharp fall now in night temperatures for the north from 17th.
next update on 20th.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
As per my last blog, the winds and the jet stream patterns, and the atmospheric conditions, show, and, as per my assumptions, confirm with the complete widhrawal of the monsoon from all regions north of 20N.
The last of the stray isolated thundershowers will pop up in Maharashtra on the 8th. ,and, I feel, the monsoon should be bidding farewell to Maharashtra, Goa, North Karnatak and A.P. from the 9th.
By next week, the reversal of the south-west winds would be complete in the peninsula area, and the westerly jet stream should slide to the regions below 15N. Hence, it would be safe to predict the North-East Monsoon current to be picking up and rain bearing systems to start forming for the commencement of the reverse monsoon thereafter, say around 14th./15th. of October.
For the north-east monsoon systems to form, the influence from the equator region decreases, and the formation of a system in the bay directly depends on the strenght of the north-east winds, and the high pressure in the north China region, which is the main "power house".
The northern regions of the sub continent, are now getting some showers/winter rains due to a fairly active W.D. crossing the belt along N.Pakistan/H.P./Kashmir regions. Higher reaches in Ladakh had snowfall today. A sharp drop in night temperatures in the northern regions is expected once the skies clear on the passing of the W.D.
Some meteorologists and a few forecast models had foreseen the formation of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea by the 2nd. week of October. I do not see any signs of a cyclone forming off the west coast of India in the next 15 days at least. I limit myself to 15 days now, as the formation of a cyclone in this area is directly related to the "October heat" in the region. So, a lot depends on how much the land would heat up in the first 2 weeks of October.