Its End Of March. 

And Now as summer starts, some facts and information. 

Mumbai Water Supply Lakes Storage.

The Mumbai lakes and dams level reported at 6 am on 31st March 2024 is 436221 ML (30.1 %) of the total. So, seeing the increasing heat now, (and subject to normal flow of supply), Mumbai has a stock of 90 days...That is upto 30th June 2024.

{Last year on 31st March 2023 was 526664 ML (36.4 %) of the total.}

Individual Lake Content in %Total Rainfall in mm

U. Vaitarna: 45.9%, Modak Sagar: 25.6, Tansa: 45.3% , M. Vaitarna: 10.5%

Bhatsa: 31.1%, Vihar: 43.9%, Tulsi:  47.3%

Mumbai Temperatures in March 2024

Weather forecast from Monday 1st April to Thursday 4th April:

Mumbai: 

*Hot and sweaty weather starts. 

*Sea breeze will keep the max temperature around 33C for the city and western suburbs. 

*Eastern suburbs can see 34-35C max. *Nights to be around 22-23C. 

Thane district and interior konkan region to see max temperatures ranging from 36C-39C as we move east from Thane/Kalyan towards Ghats.

Pune: 

*Hot days with max around 37-39C. *Nights can get slightly better and pleasant in the upcoming days.

*Min can drop to around 20-21C from the present 23C. 

Patchy clouds may form over Ghats/Madhya Maharashtra region in the afternoon, but not much chance of rain.

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Very hot weather during the day. Dry heat with max temperature around 40-42C in most places. Nights can remain around 22-23C. 

 30th March

Compiled by Vag.Gokul

27th March...Heat Wave Persists in Maharashtra & Gujarat

Due to early on set of Westerly Sea breeze, the Konkan Region was spared from the extreme 40s

Mumbai Colaba 31.4c, Alibag 31.6c, 

Harnai 32.0c,Mumbai Scruz 32.0c, 

Ratnagiri 32.2c, Thane 34.8c

MMR Stations 👇 ( Compiled by Vag Abhijit):

Borivali 31c, Mira road 33c

Virar 33.7c, Dapoli 34c

Panvel 35.1, Mulund 35.4c

Thane 35.9 AWS, Mumbra 36.1c

Kalyan 37, Badlapur 37.5c

Chart by Vag. Gokul

----------------------------------------------------------

☑And Air Quality ( 7 pm ) Mumbai👇

Air Quality Delhi👇 

 Air Quality..26th afternoon           Maharashtra Dominates on 26th  👇

Mumbai v/s Delhi v/s👇 Pune

Please make your   judgment ☺

 Vagaries WhatsApp Channel Link👇

https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAroRKIyPtXYSoIsn43

What is a Western Disturbance ?

Complete Thesis by Vag. Shreyas Dhavale on "Weather Knowledge Page (44-52).

Posted 24th Night:

Mumbai/Pune /Mahabalashwar/SambhajiNagar/Goa: Next Week Outlook:

Mumbai:    Mon       Tues        Wed        Thu           Fri

                    25th        26th        27th       28th         29th

                      🌞           🌞        🌞           🌞          🌞

Days           34c           35c        37c          36c          36c

Real Feel    38c           38c        39c          38c          38c

Nights        23c           22c        22c           24c         24c   

Pune:           Mon       Tues        Wed        Thu           Fri

                     25th        26th        27th       28th         29th 

                     🌞           🌞         ⛅           ⛅           🌞

Days           38c           38c           39c          39c          38c

Real Feel    38c           38c           40c          40c          38c

Nights         17c          17c           17c           18c          19c

Mahabaleshwar     Mon       Tues        Wed        Thu           Fri

                                 25th        26th        27th       28th         29th 

                                 🌞           🌞         ⛅           ⛅           🌞

Days                       32c           32c           33c          33c          32c

Nights                     19c          19c           20c           20c          19c

Sambhaji Nagar        Mon       Tues        Wed        Thu           Fri

                                    25th        26th        27th       28th         29th

                                    🌞           🌞        🌞           🌞          🌞

Days                          38c           38c        39c          40c          39c

Real Feel                   38c           38c        39c          40c          38c

Nights                        23c           22c        22c           24c         24c      

Goa:           Mon       Tues        Wed        Thu           Fri

                     25th        26th        27th       28th         29th 

                     🌞           🌞         ⛅           ⛅           🌞

Days           33c           34c           34c          33c          33c

Real Feel    34c           34c           35c          35c          34c

Nights         24c          24c           26c           26c          24c

Are we looking towards a hot 2024 summer?

2023 summers were extremely disappointing, as we saw temperatures averaging below normal.

Article in Early May 2023 (from Vagaries blog ,May 2023)👇

From Monsoon Watch 4 -2023 ( Vagaries Blog ,May 2023) 👇

This summer at least the start is promising. Looking foward for widespread +45°c temperatures

In terms of WD march is also coming to end but it is not raining in plains of north

So , all expectations that lots of WD will come from march onwards has now diffused away

And despite of El-Nino , WD took a extreme back stage this season including march

 As i was mentioning earlier too, the atmospheric response last 5 months was not of a classical El-Nino , which might be 1 reason of lack of strong WD despiteEl-Nino ino (in terms of ocean temperature threshold)

 Only thing which look certain as of now is some record breaking temperatures in April, May in bharat 😃

And hopefully a good South West Monsoon ⛈

Compiled by Vagarian Vineet Singh

 22nd March...

 🎉 **Exciting News from Vagaries of the Weather!** 🎉

We are thrilled to announce that Vagaries of the Weather has reached a landmark 44 lacs  (4.4 million) hits! 🌐✨

A huge congratulations and heartfelt thanks to all the Vagarians, readers, journalists, and contributors who have supported us along this incredible journey. Your unwavering faith in Vagaries has been truly inspiring.

At Vagaries, we are committed to sharing and spreading weather awareness, and hitting this milestone only strengthens our resolve to continue providing valuable insights and information to our audience.

Thank you for being a part of our community, and here's to many more milestones ahead! 🌦️☀️🌧️

Warm regards

Max temp on 21-3-24 in °C

Virar 38.7°C

Mumbai SCZ 38.8

NaviMumbai & MiraRd 39.1

Thane 39.3

Panvel 39.7

Kalyan & Badlapur 39.9

Dapoli & Bhiwandi 40.1

Talasari  40.7

Karjat 41

Chiplun 41.7

Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit☝

21st March: Interesting Facts about Mumbai ...

Mumbai saw the Warmest Night in Maharashtra  on 21st Morning: 24c

2nd Warmest day in Maharashtra on 20th: 38.7c...Warmest very close at 39.0c at Solapur

 20th March

Mentioned yesterday Mumbai would shoot to 37°c, but weather overtakes Vagaries, shows actual "Vagaries " ,and touched 38.7°c on 20th.

Dry NE winds bring down the humidity in this coastal city to Below 20%.

Mumbai ranked 14th in India today 

Record all time high for March for Mumbai Scruz is 41.7°c on 28th March 1956 .

Colaba March record is 41.6°c on 17th March 2011.

 20th March...

Forecasted East rough 

Let's look into the 3rd week of March ( 17th - 21st).

Mumbai:

Hot weather likely for Mumbai region this week, typical dry hot days of March to begin🔥

Mumbai may see temperatures going up to 36-37°C, dry hot breeze possible during the day.

Evenings can see some sea breeze and moderate humidity. Just ok around 22/23°C.

Mumbai in March, compared with last year,and 2006, the coldest day in March.

 

Thane-Kalyan belt to see 39°C-41°C temperatures.

Further inland, Neral-Karajat/Khopoli to get baked in around 42°C.

Pune:

Warm days around 36/37°C. Nights getting little warmer to reach 17°C.

15th March

Monsoon ( 2024) outlook v/s Enso...La Nina.

A transitionfrom El Nino to Neutral conditions likely from April to June 2024.

But odds favour shifting to La Nina from June to December 2024. 

La Nina would result in a strong South West Monsoon in S.E. Asia and India. 

The La Nina often follows El Nino; however, they occur at irregular intervals of around 2-7 years.

Causes of La Nina

La Nina is mainly caused when easterly trade winds become much stronger. Due to this, warmer water accumulates towards the western Pacific Ocean and cold water toward the central and eastern Pacific oceans. The strong easterly trade winds blow warm water towards the western Pacific Ocean, due to which the eastern and central Pacific Ocean waters are lower than the normal temperatures.

Studies from Climare Prediction Centre ,NOAA.

Mumbai: This day last Year

March 12 2023:The Santacruz observatory and the Colaba observatory recorded a temperature of 39.4°Celsius and 35.8°Celsius, respectively.

At 39.4°C, Mumbai records highest temperature in country for second time in March: IMD.

March 12th 2024 

 Scruz 35.1c

Colaba 31.6c

 News from the "Warming Trend" Desk...

On World Weather News Page

A once-in-a-250-year weather event is underway across the UK that could bring bitter wintry conditions across swathes of the country, the Met Office has said.

A wet and pleasant start into March in the U.A.E.

Total rainfall falls in U.A.E for this weekend :

(08.3.2024 to 10.03.2024)

From Sunday mostly places went dry 

Khatam Al shiklah

78mm Abu Dhabi

Al farfar fujairah

77.4mm

Al Marmoom in Dubai 

74mm

Umm Al quwain

68.6mm

Lahbab in dubai

65mm

Bin humrah in Abu Dhabi

63.9mm

Al khurimah in Abu Dhabi

63.9mm

Al jhaid in sharjah

57.9mm

Al faqa in Dubai

57.4mm

Jumeirah in Dubai

56.5mm

Dubai IA

56mm

Sharjah IA

52.4mm

Ras Al khaimah IA

40.9mm

Fujairah IA

37.6mm

Al ain IA

25.4mm

Zayed IA(Abu Dhabi IA)

18.1mm

Abu Dhabi city 19mm

The UAE's average rainfall is less than 100mm a year.

Compiled by Vagarian Vicky (Abu Dhabi)

And the temperatures..pleasant 

10th March...

Slow start to All India Summer as Day and Night temperature readings hover around Normal range.👇

With the approaching W.D , Delhi, next few days, will be steady at 30° in the day, and 16° at night.

On 10th, for the 6th consecutive day, Anantapur (A.P.) remains the hottest place in India.👇

In Maharashtra, Solapur at 39.6° was the hottest ( 5th in India).

Akola 38.3°

Wardha 38.0°

Sangli 37.7°

Kolhapur  37.1°

Pune A.P. 37.0°

Pune : 36.9°

Aurangabad 35.4°

Mumbai Scz 34.7°

Next week, Mumbai will be warm around 36° in the day. Nights around 21/22°

Next few days, Pune, already warm, will remain at 37°.

However nights will be around 16°.

Initial Summer Warming to Commence

8th March 

Turning our attention to the transition of Seasonal 

It's Anantapur again on Friday 

and Solapur now 9th in the topping 

But overall, India maximum day temperatures around "normal"(green region)

------------------------------

7th Post....

From Friday, the weather across the country will be dry and sunny, (except for some snowfall in the far north.)

The southern half of India will witness above-average temperatures, with highs potentially soaring to 44°

Anantapur, was hottest in India on 7th.

Anantapur also was  the 1st to cross 40° for India (41.1°) this season on 2nd March

Outlook for Weekend 8th/9th/10th:

Maharashtra & Gujarat will get dry and warmer days by 3/4° from this weekend. 

Sambhajinagar will get  days heating up  to 36/37°, with nights around 20°.

Vidharbh will reach upto 38/°39°.

Pune getting warmer this weekend to reach 35/36°. Nights hovering around 16/17°. 

Mumbai will also be around 35/36°. Nights around 21°.

Mumbai Last week 👇

Outer townships (Panvel,  Badlapur,  Karjat, Palghar) can rise to 2/3°, some places in Kokan reaching 41°.

All places in Gujarat will see heating up by 3/4°.

Bharuch might see 35/36° next week.

6th March Posting

On request:

Weather probability for the #India v/s England 5th Cricket Test Match at Dharamsala from 7th to 11th March.

1st day 7th: Chances of passing rainfall. May hold up play for some time.

Very cold conditions for play !

Day cold at 14°c and evenings getting colder at 9°c. Night minimum can be 6°.

2nd/3rd Day 8th,9th: Cold conditions with cloudy weather. Windy, and around 16°c during playing time.

4th-5th Day 10th/11th: 

Better playing conditions. 

Sunny and warmer at 17°c.

 3rd March 

The WD has arrived and was a blessing for Delhi...it has filtered the air

Delhi recorded a 24-hour average air quality index (AQI) reading of 117 (moderate) at 4pm, the lowest since October 17, 2023, when it read 89 (satisfactory).( Courtesy H.T ).

Mumbai:

As the North winds started over Mumbai, we  see the immediate fall in the temperatures. 

Santacruz and Colaba measured 28.8°c on Sunday 3rd March. 

The fall registered on Sunday was 8°c from the last few days. 

Now, this turns out to be the coldest March day after 3rd  March 2012, when the station saw 27.5°c. 

However, the coldest March day was 27.3°c on 9th March 2006. The day when Mumbai saw its rarest hails. ( As per Vagaries records).

Mumbai can expect cooler weather for the next 3 days ,and nights can drop to 16°c at Santacruz.

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent.

Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunderstorms across northern, western and central parts of India.

Chance of light rain in few pockets of Mumbai region and Palghar, Thane, Raigad districts persists from today evening into the morning of tomorrow 3rd March. 

Due to the strong trough of the WD, high moisture transport from the southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea is seen. 

Surface level dry northerly winds will engulf the western parts of the country behind this WD, when it moves away eastwards.

Another round of pleasant and dry weather is likely across Maharashtra as mentioned in our earlier post.

1st March:

Mumbai: Parts of Mumbai received light drizzles on Thursday Night.

Though rain was predicted in Interior Maharashtra, from an upper level trough, which resulted in  the confluence of winds in Central Maharashtra.

No forecasts agency had predicted localised rains or cloud build up over Mumbai or Ghats (Pune)... a slight "spill over" of Moisture over Mumbai region  resulted in Colaba IMD: 3.2 mms, Nariman Point 1,3, C ward  0.5 mms, Dahisar 0.5mms, Borivali & Kandivali 0,3 mms.

As the South Westerly winds sweep into NW India (as image shown yesterday in our blog), a weak trough forming will result in chance of localised light rains to continue on Saturday evening/Sunday Morning in parts of Mumbai.

No rain from Sunday afternoon onwards. 

Pleasant start to the next week  with a fall in temperatures as compared to last week.

Days next week will fall by 5c (from 37c to 32c) and nights also by 6c (from 25c to 18/20c).