Sunday, September 30, 2007

Now its a hasty retreat ! The monsoon is pushing its way down south to widhraw at a fast pace. The dry air from the northern areas of Pakistan and northern most parts of India are vigourously pushing south as seen in this IMD streamline. The result:
1. Clear skies in Pakistan, North-west India, and gaining ground southwards into Gujarat,M.P. and eastwards towards U.P. Clear skies are prevelent today into Maharashtra.(IMD sat)

2. Resultant fall, overnite, in night temperatures in the north. Sudden falls in night temperatures recorded were 02c and 03c in Kalat and Skardu, and 15 c in Islamabad ( all Pakistan), and 05c in Srinagar, and 17c in Amritsar. Delhi has had a small drop to 21c. (see the southward thrust in IMD map)

3. Day temperatures may tend to rise ,for around the next 15 days, due to the sudden clearing of the skies.

Meanwhile, as mentioned, when the southwest monsoon widhrawal line reaches the states of Tamil Nadu, south Karnataka and Kerala, we have to keep a watch on the reversal of winds, to observe the arrival of the North-east monsoon.This may be heralded with a low, which may form around the 9/10 th. in the bay off the T.N. coast , as a result of remants of Tropical Storm "Lekima" near Vietnam.

The total rainfall of the season for Mumbai (Colaba) for the last three comparitve years.

2005: 2216 mm
2006: 2377 mm
2007: 2436 mm (97")

and Santa Cruz,
2005: 3321 mm
2006: 3030 mm
2007: 2569 mm.

kapadias@gmail.com





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