Sunday, September 09, 2007

Monsoon:

The seasonal monsoon low over Pakistan and adjoining India was less marked today. The chart shows the low pressure at 1002 and moving over east into India, and as a "less marked", or a disintegrated low over Pakistan. I personally feel, with the winds having reversed over Pakistan, and the low getting less marked over the international border, the monsoon has started its widhrawal, and has retreated from Sindh and West Rajasthan. The 200 hpa jet stream is also moving southwards to support the reversal. However, the monsoon trough holds on into North India, , seen in the chart as a low, and is stationary over north India, hence delaying the monsoon widhrawal over the rest of Rajasthan and north west India by another 4/5 days. Accordingly, the the forecast by NOAA/NCEP show a total widhrawal from north west India by the 16th.

For the southern states, the IMD has forecasted the formation of an UAC by the 10th. This will result in an increase in rainfall over the region for the next 2 days.

The rest of India will have sporadic scattered thundershowers, Even though there is no organised system is in place, south west winds keep the moisture level high, to encourage convective thunderclouds into easy formations.

Mumbai will be hot and almost dry during the week, with a thundershower possible in the evening on Thurs/fri.

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