Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Friday, July 31, 2026

Monsoon Performance 

 July 2026 Rain topper list 👇

Tamhini 5710
Shirgaon 4884
Davdi 4868
Dongarwadi 4199
Jor 4000
Lonavala 3820
Mahabaleshwar 3737 

With a phenomenal 5,710 mm of #rainfall during July 2026 alone, Tamhini has become the first station in the SahyadriGhat region and indeed the first in the country to cross the 6,000 mm seasonal rainfall mark this SWM. 

As of 31 July 2026, Tamhini's seasonal rainfall stands at an astounding 6,079 mm.
Lonavala also appears to have recorded its wettest July on record, with an exceptional 3,820 mm of rainfall during the month.

What makes this turnaround even more remarkable is that June was exceptionally dry. 

Lonavala received only 348 mm, while Tamhini recorded just 369 mm during  June.

Map and details compiled by Vag. Abhijit

Maharashtra 


All India


 

 31st July

BB 3 MOVES WEST LEAVES VIDARBHA AND MOVES WEST INTO MARATHWADA AND GUJARAT 


Depression rains...so multi layer clouds, good rains in interiors and very cool weather

Pattern is not the usual westerlies offshore trough rains...so not necessarily Ghat matha and foothills can score centuries everywhere...instead Deccan plateau region will receive good rains from this.

Districts to watch out today - Nashik, Dhule, Ahilyanagar, Pune, Nandurbar

Vapi to Baroda stretch should be on watch for very heavy rains today into tomorrow 
Saurashtra region and Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar/Surendranagar can also score

From Vag. Shreyas Dhavale 

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Potential Flash Flood Probability 










 

Marathwada 👇

Marathwada is in moderate deficiency currently..Sambhajinagar _5%, Nanded -36%, Dharashiv +5%, Parbhani - 38%. 

Dam Storage : Jayakwadi Dam is at 68% storage. District storage average 61%.

System, BB 3, is over Telengana. 

The positive news is that the region is expected to get good rains 2 days, 30th and 31st.till 1st August. Though crops are standing in healthy conditions, the additional rain, next 2 days cumulatively may get 70 - 90 mms.

Will be excessive, but see for the future may be helpful as Region will get negligible rain next 8 to 10 days. Need to keep the ground wet.

Sambhajinagar fields today




—--———-—-------------------------------------------------

मराठवाडा: मराठवाड्यात सध्या मध्यम स्वरूपाची पाण्याची कमतरता आहे.. संभाजीनगर -५%, नांदेड -३६%, धाराशिव +५%, परभणी -३८%. धरणातील पाणीसाठा: जायकवाडी धरण ६८% भरलेले आहे. जिल्ह्याचा सरासरी पाणीसाठा ६१% आहे. चांगली बातमी ही आहे की, १ ऑगस्टपर्यंत या भागात ३० आणि ३१ तारखेला दोन दिवस चांगला पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता आहे. जरी पिके चांगल्या स्थितीत असली तरी, पुढील दोन दिवसांत पडणाऱ्या अतिरिक्त पावसामुळे एकूण ७० ते ९० मिमी पाऊस पडू शकतो. हा पाऊस गरजेपेक्षा जास्त असेल, पण भविष्यासाठी तो उपयुक्त ठरू शकतो, कारण पुढील ८ ते १० दिवसांत या भागात नगण्य पाऊस पडेल. जमीन ओली ठेवणे आवश्यक आहे.

———------------------------------——--------—--——

Mumbai: Moderate occasional passing showers will continue, and increasing from Friday into the weekend, giving around (average ) 25 to 40 mms per day.

Pune : Getting the moderate showers till July end, pushing up the record total by another 20 mms. Decrease in Rains in first week of August.

Jalgaon : Heavy to very heavy rains on 30th and 31st, could exceed 100 mms on 31st.

Bharuch: Very heavy showers on 31st Friday and 1st August Saturday. Could exceed 100 mms.


Wednesday, July 29, 2026

 Mumbai Lakes Storage at 88.17%...Highest seasonal rainfall this year at Tulsi @ 2879 mms ( 111") followed by Upper Vaitarna @ 2502 mms ,( 100").


VoW in Times of India ( Pune ) today.
 

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

 The Deep Depression effect from 8.30am to 5.30 pm of 28th 

Nagpur 180 mm

Keonjhargarh 105 mms

Meerut, Kanpur IAF and Manjalkhand 8 cms









And overnight rains 🌧 


 28th July...DD position 





Sunday, July 26, 2026

System from Bay moving in

 26th July.

Position of Depression in Bay 



Devoloping System with South Bands 👇

Expected to reach Deep Depression and track NW

Substantial amount of rainfall expected along track.. Odisha, Chattisgarh, East M. P. parts of Vidharbh. 

Decrease in all Gujarat rains. 

Since system will weaken along path, activation of West Coast Trough will be limited to 27th/28th.

Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada should not expect effect of System. 

Mumbai: Best positive news.. Lakes Storage showing good improvements and now at 86.18%..(last year 88%).

Best rainfall this year is Tulsi with 2834 mms followed by Upper Vaitarna showing 2267 mms! 

Mumbai/Goa: Moderate occasional passing showers expected on 27th/28.. translating to around 35 - 50 mms per day.

Could experience some decrease from 29th.


Saturday, July 25, 2026

 Scenario today 

Will forecast tomorrow 

250 level 

850 level 




25h July 

Maharashtra water Storage 

Water storage in Maharashtra’s reservoirs has increased following recent rainfall. According to the Water Resources Department’s report released today, the state’s 3,029 dams are collectively holding 53.38% of their live storage capacity. On the corresponding day last year, the live storage stood at 63.42%.

Region-wise, the Konkan region has the highest live storage at 76.54%, followed by Pune at 65.27%, Nashik at 55.11%, Nagpur at 46.71%, and Amravati at 42.91%. The Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar region has the lowest live storage at 25.44%.

Among major dams, Konkan and Pune have 77.19% and 70.15% live storage, respectively. In the medium dam category, Konkan leads with 77.06% live storage. Minor dams in the region are also the best stocked, with 73.06% live storage.

In contrast, the Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar region has 31.70% live storage in major dams, 17.77% in medium dams, and 13.86% in minor dams

Source AIR

Gujarat Rainfall In Excess

% of seasonal rainfall:

North Gujarat

  • Santalpur (Patan) – 103.18%
  • Kadi (Mehsana) – 96.23%

Central Gujarat

  • Viramgam (Ahmedabad) – 96.03%
  • Mandal (Ahmedabad) – 93.80%
  • Mehmedabad (Kheda) – 107.03%
  • Nadiad (Kheda) – 94.09%

Saurashtra

  • Mangrol (Junagadh) – 107.49%

South Gujarat

Surat district

  • Palsana – 118.78%
  • Ambika – 112.16%
  • Kamrej – 103.69%
  • Bardoli – 93.25%
  • Surat city – 92.89%

Navsari district

  • Chikhli – 114.02%
  • Khergam – 106.35%
  • Vansda – 92.42%
  • Gandevi – 90.46%

Valsad district

  • Umargam – 125.32%
  • Valsad – 98.86%
  • Pardi – 98.74%

Tapi district

  • Dolvan – 97.84%
  • Valod – 97.13%

Bharuch district

  • Netrang – 92.91%

Overall, Gujarat has received 52.03% of its average seasonal rainfall so far.

Data compiled by deshgujarat.com

Friday, July 24, 2026

Gujarat Record rains continue

Ahmedabad: 294.6mm in last 24hrs, this is 4th highest all time 24hrs rain recorded there in history.

Also this is highest 24hrs rain recorded there after year 2000

Highest 24hrs rain records for Ahmedabad (including all months of year)

414.8mm (1927)

325.9mm (2000)

322.3mm (1967)

294.6mm (2026)

288.1mm (2014)

257.8mm (1950)

250mm (1976)

249.3mm (1997)

242.4mm (1990)

237.4mm (2010)

Data: IMD



Thursday, July 23, 2026

23rd July..2026 Massive Record Rainfall in south Gujarat

3rd Highest Daily rainfall of India in Umergaon 

Highest 24 hr rain records




Most Probable Reason for Heavy Rains in South Gujarat...Trough and UAC at 700 Lavels 



 23rd July 

Almost all Mumbai Lakes received > 100 mms..level storage at 69.74%



Ghat rainfall:
Tamhni 280 mms, Bhira 248 mms,  Davdi 196 mms, Mahabaleshwar 148 mms,  Dongerwadi 170 mms, Lonavala 133 mms, Mulshi 118 mms. 

Gujarat: 
Umbergaon 906 mms, Daman 567 mms, Surat 118 mms.

 23rd July

Massive Gujarat Rainfall 





Dahanu IMD may be submerged as per some reports..last reading till 5.30 pm of 22nd was 179 mms in 9 hrs. 












Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Posted 21st July Night:

1. Heavy rainfall in UttaraKhand as Monsoon axis active.

CHIEF AMOUNT OF RAINFALL (mm): MANUAL: Chakrata-169.0, Haripur-139.0, Purola-106.0, Mussoorie-93.1, Barkot-47.0, Dehra Dun-45.1, Sama45.0, Mori-44.0, Dharchula-42.8, Someshwar-42.0, Loharkhet-42.0, Chamoli-38.8, Garud-38.0, Bhatwari-36.0, Tehri-35.4, Khatima-35.0,

Nepal ; Heavy rainfall recorded in some  stations like Anarmani  116 mms, Makhwanpur  100 mms, Rampur 66 mms, Takulkot 59 mms.
(this rainfall affects Kosi River flow into Bihar).

2. The Monsoon n Axis now moving Southwards.

Activating rainfall along West Coast, East Gujarat, Vidharbh, Chatttisgarh and M.P. till 25th.

Gujarat: Good rainfall expected in South Gujarat Region next 3 days. Surat, Bharuch and Valsad can expect rainfall in excess of 50-70 mms on 22nd/23rd.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai: Regular monsoon days..Needs No Alerts.
Overcast skies with frequent heavy passing showers with gusty winds.. Mumbai can expect about 110-140 mms accumulated rainfall on Wednesday 22nd/Thursday23rd/Friday 24th.

Due to fairly good rainfall in city's lakes, the catchment inflow for all sides has boosted the storage to 57.75%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pune: 22nd/23rd/24th...Cloudy and cool days at 25c.with frequent moderate drizzles.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Sambhajinagar: Around 30-40 mms rainfall on 22nd and 23rd. Cool days at 25c. Decrease in rains from 24th. Soil moisture conditions could be better.

संभाजीनगर: २२ आणि २३ तारखेला सुमारे ३०-४० मिमी पाऊस पडेल. २५ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानासह हवामान थंड राहील. २४ तारखेपासून पावसात घट होईल. जमिनीतील ओलावा चांगला राहण्याची शक्यता आहे.
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Goa: Some heavy showers on Wednesday, but decrease in rainfall on Thursday and Friday.



Monday, July 20, 2026

 



Thank you all for the wonderful words you wrote in our Anniversary Book. Every message means a great deal to me and will always be treasured.

The Anniversary Book and the beautiful trophy were a completely unexpected and deeply touching surprise. I am truly grateful for your thoughtfulness and affection.

I feel incredibly proud and fortunate to have such loyal, caring, and passionate Vagarians as part of this journey. Your unwavering support over the past 20 years has been the greatest strength behind Vagaries.

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart, for making this milestone so memorable. Here's to many more years together!

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Vagaries' 20 years Young

 Glimpses of Our  "Vagaries' 20th year celebrations held on 18th July.

Thanks to all Vagarians for support and faith.

We missed all those not present. 




























Vagaries' Monsoon anlysis v/s Other Factors

 3rd October: Monsoon Over in Mumbai and Pune  S.W.Monsoon ..Widhrawal Line shown below (Vagaries)....Mumbai Included ----------------------...