It has been 4 days since my last posting, the "new low" I mentioned in my last blog has since crossed the coast of Orissa, and dumped heavy rain in Jharkhand and Bengal.Today it is presently over Chattisgarh as a depression.
Now, this is expected to move west-northwestwards, and as a result it will drag the rain belt along with it into M.P.and east Maharashtra, initially. Later, from Sunday, heavy rain should commence in rest of Maharahstra and eastern parts of Gujarat, as a result of the depression's northwest movement. This is because the JTWC report states that the depression has a low level circulation centre, with monsoon rain clouds along the north-west and southern fringe of its circulation. The travel path of the weakening system will be towards south Rajasthan.
But, to the East of this system, almost no clouds are seen. There is a hint of another low forming in the bay around the 14th./15th.This, may happen as a result of the system just crossing the Vietnam coast (Doraji).
India, as a whole, has recieved good monsoon rains thus far,upto 4th.July. The areawise distribution has been one of the best in recent times. Thus far the area weighted rainfall for the country overall has been 237 mm,against an normal of 197 mm, meaning excess by 20%.
The ECMRWF and the U.K. met. dept. has forecast an above normal rainfall period for India in July/August/September.
The heat seems to be simmering back into sindh, with a few places, again going back to a high of 46 c. I think the south-eastern areas of sindh may just get some rain from the weakened system appraoching the region.
I also read about some extreme heat in the west U.S. Goldboros(Calif.) was at 52c and Las Vegas at 47c, with Phoenix at 44c.That is extreme by any standards !