Friday, October 26, 2007

Ok, the bay low, has now crossed over into the Arabian sea, and has merged with the existing low there.
Many models still predict a cyclone there in the Arabian Sea, but the course and direction of the cyclone "to form" is being changed with almost every update. Very uncertain and unpredictable ! But, how strong the system becomes,( I still call it a system, without grading it), remains to be seen, and the direction, is anybody's guess.

The low mentioned by me for the bay has formed,and should cross the south Tamil Nadu coast by the 28th. And the rains will follow, drenching the southern tip most. But later, rainfall should disperse northwards into inland Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
The upper jet stream westerlies over north India, are much too deep in the south,falling to near 22N, and the jet stream easterlies are very weak for this time of the year,and near the southern tip of India. Hence, any low,or depression, is unable to cross the east coast higher than the 10N line.

The high over the central parts of northern India will keep the area dry, and cool at nights, for the next week, at least.

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