Current Weather

Posted on Thursday Night:
The UAC now expected to move N/NE. Will be over NW UP and adjoining Uttarkhand.Heavy rains expected Thursday Night and Friday in the Delhi -Lucknow corridor.

As mentioned (below) yesterday, the UAC and BB-3 have merged around Delhi. And Delhi, Haryana and Punjab received the forecasted rains (by Vagaries). Thunder showers started at about 6 pm , so the rains arrived 6-12 hrs earlier than estimated.

Palam measured 87 mms, Sjung 41 mms. Jaipur saw 67 mms till 8.30 pm IST Thursday.

Several cities in Pakistan's Upper Punjab and Central Sindh received medium to light showers..the first showers for Sindh
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Posted Wednesday 16th July 2014, Night:

Outlook for Thursday 17th July...
An unusual, but welcome feature: A Low forms over Saurashtra, extending upto 500 hp level. It could be strongest at 700 hp level, and weak at sea level.
Good precipitation expected in Saurashtra on Thursday, specially after mid day. Precipitation between 40-70 mms at most places in Saurahtra with up to 100 mms heavy falls in a few places. Strong SW winds at the coast, will swirl in a anto clock wise direction over the Saurahtra peninsula on Thursday.

Strong and gusty SW winds continue in North Maharashtra coast and South Gujarat coast. 
Precipitation with some heavy falls expected in North Konkan and South Gujarat reions. Good rains for Surat expecting sharp showersand could measure 30-40 mms.
Rain fall in North Konkan (including Mumbai) may be between 40-70 mms on Thursday, and 40-60 mms in South Gujarat coast. 
On Thursday, Mumbai will get fairly frequent showers some prolonged and windy. 40-70 mms.

Pakistan
SWM is moving into Central and Upper regions...
As strong SW winds rush towards the axis which has moved South, many regions of Central Sindh, Upper Sindh, Pak Punjab and upper Punjab in Pakistan can get Thursday rains and thunder showers.
From this UAC over Saurashtra, an upper air trough at 700 hp forms in a NE direction thru MP..The BB-3 Low and UAC merges in the trough over MP. BB-3 in a weak form is expected to move North. Delhi NCR can get rains from this on Friday.
Thursday: Heavy rains likely in East Rajasthan and adjoining West and North MP.

BB-4 could form in the North Bay by Saturday 21st July.
A detailed Weekend forecast will be posted on Thursday on Current weather Page...




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written for Marathwada and Vidharbha in Lokmat Times of 9th July...


Weather Watch:

A lot is heard of the low and scarce rainfall in Maharashtra this year. Yes, the situation is grim and Marathwada leads the way with the highst deficit as on end June...at a whopping -80%. That is really very loww and amounts to scanty raindfall in the ver first month of the Monsoon.
July too has started off on a poor note. 
Aurangabad AirPort had rain on only 1 day as yet, that too 18 mms. City had still less, 11 mms. But some regions in the surrounding regions had better rains. Phulambri saw a massive 100 mms and Vadod Bazar 40 mms in a day on 6th.
Karmad had 40 mms, Savangi had also 40 mms and Chowka saw 28 mms. In the same region, Ambhai near Sillod had 59 mms and Sillod itself saw 40 mms. 
These rains , almost the first of the season, was beneficial in soaking the soil. It has proved a boon to the farmers, as the initial dampening of the soil has taken place. But, it was in a very limited and small region.

But again, Paithan region saw very little rain on 6th. Just 5 mms in Paithan and 2 mms in Dhorkin.
Marathwada water levels storage in all dams and reservoirs is at 15%, as compared to 8% last year. Best is the Upper Penganga reservoir, at 43% storage and Jayakwadi, though at only 3%, was 0% last year. All Maharashtra average storage os on date is 17% this year compared to 33% last year.
 The crop pattern needs change.With this, as yet, we need not worry or think negative about drought. We have July in hand for improvement. I suggest to go in for Soya Beans or Sunflower or Maize. Then it is finally for the local farmer to decide.

Aurangabad city will be cloudy with a few light showers in parts. Heavier thunder showers on friday /Saturday. Would expect around 30 mms this week. The region can expect scattered showers next few days in this week. Some pockets in the rural areas  are likely to see heavy downpours  ( 40-50 mms) on Friday and Saturday, which will see small streams fill up. 

Vidharbha: The region is also in deficit, and as on end June showed a deficit of -66%. Rainfall was in surplus last year end June.West Vidharbha is dry with negligible rains this month. Akot measured only 21 mms on 7th. Nagpur is tottering at 15 mms this month, and Outer towns like Bari and Khapari are totalling just 1 nand 2 mms ! The Best i see in July is Jalalkheda in Narkhed region with 29 mms.

Good precipitations are expected in East Vidharbha on friday and Saturday. In fact i expect very heavy rains in Nagpur on Sunday Night and Monday...Maybe around 50 mms or more !  Heavy showers in East Vidarbha would be good for the standing crops. However, Western regions would see lesser rains , maybe some sharp showers on Saturday.

Posted Wednesday 25th June..Night:

Mumbai and rest of Maharashtra remained dry on Wednesday. With no rain, except 0.4 mms in Mahableshwar, the dry spell is getting serious for the State.

Mumbai Colaba with 55 mms as yet in June, is heading for its driest June, unless it crosses 92 mms, which was the driest ever.Alibag and Harnai are also heading for low records.

Situation in Maharashtra is still NOT alarming, as far as Dams and Reservoir levels are concerned. The overall storage as on 25th June in Maharashtra is 19%...compared to 22% last year on date. In fact, Storage in Marathwada is at 17% compared to only 6% last year. Nagpur shows an improved water storage as vis a vis last year..at 39% this year and 30% last year. 
Konkan is lower than last year..39% versus 54%. Ghats section , which can go critical for several reasons show very poor rainfall this year. 
Lonavala has received only 108 mms as on 25th June, while last year on date the rainfall amount was 1358 mms !! Mulshi Lake shows 307 mms as against 1237 mms last year.

Mumbai Lakes: The highest rainfall till date this June is in Tulshi Lake...132 mms followed by Modak Sagar with 100 mms. Tulshi last year had recorded 1670 mms till date !!
Total Lakes Levels are at 17% ( 27% last year)...showing 141 Mcum ...
Meaning @ 3.500 Mcum/day, we have about 40 days Storage..upto 5th August !! 
{ In Case of emergency situations, Mumbai has some storage in Batsa and Vaitarna meant for irrigation to back on}
2013 this date, Storage was 315 Mcum.
Mumbai will see partly cloudy skies with light passing rains in some areas amounting to 2-5 mms till Saturday. Hot and stuffy, with sultry nights at 29c...Sunday will be cloudy with a few passing showers, amounting to around 5-9 mms. Rainfall increasing to >15 mms on Monday.
Interior Maharashtra will be almost devoid of rains next 3 days at least. Some light rains in Pune on Sunday.

An UAC is likely to form off the North Andhra coast on the 27th...and would cross into North Andhra Coast on 27th...resulting in some heavy rains for 2 days in North AP/Odisha regions. Would be watching this UAC , and observe if it moves into Vidharbha...around the 29th of June.



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Posted Monday Night 9th June:

Arabian Sea Low: Well marked, and soon to be a depression, AS-1 has tracked in a hap hazard manner, but overall has moved parallel to the West Coast in the last 48 hrs. 

The red line in the image shows the last 48 hrs track, and stationed almost off the Goa coast now, it has reached vagaries' point of turn now. We had estimated the system to move along the coast till Goa, and turn West thereafter.

My worry is, being situated at 13.6N and 68E, it is within our "de marked" line of 65E, so, now AS-1 at 996 mb, the worry is about the monsoon clouds getting "sucked in" the system. We must hope for and anticipate a quick movement away from the coast, Westwards.
As-1 quick movement Westwards will help in fast organising of the Monsoon favourite off shore coast.


SWM has moved into Coastal karnataka..9th June..see map below


Latest on SWM Advance:


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Vagaries' Forecast in Gujrati Newspaper Akila:




(More Pics of Delhi Storm on 30th May 2014  with BB-3 rain total for Odisha sent by Vagarian Santosh)




Posted Thursday Night:

MW 4 Moving into Pakistan with a tilted trough towards SW..precipitation likely in Pakistan and Makran Coast as SW winds bring moisture...rains moving East...
LWD along Peninsula India set to strengthen...may cause thunder showers along Maharashtra Ghats...Thundery developments East of Mumbai this weekend..


M-3...Current WD effect on North India...posted by Arpit.

Western Disturbances this May are playing an important role in deciding the weather of North India. Presently due to a western disturbance, both day & night temperatures are much below normal in North India especially the northern plains. Continuous WDs along with deeper trough had made the weather quite comfortable in the northern plains which are usually reeling above 40c for this time of the year.

Western Himalayan region is also enjoying chilly & wet weather owing to a western disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir. Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan ,Delhi & NW Uttar Pradesh are the most affected. Day temperatures are as low as -12c and night temperatures are below normal by -10c at few places.

New Delhi Safdarjung recorded minimum of 18c on Tuesday which is seven notches below normal while 19c today. Palam observatory recorded 18.5c today which is also seven notches below normal.
Most places in Punjab & Haryana had light rain leading to fall in temperatures. Rajasthan on the other hand is enjoying pleasant weather with N-NW Rajasthan getting good amount of rain during the past couple of days. Minimum temperature in Una dropped to 14.4c today.

Here's the maximum & minimum temperature along with precipitation during the past 24 hours ending at 8:30 am IST(14 MAY) over various parts of the region...
STATE CITY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (°C) MINIMUM TEMPERATURE(°C) RAINFALL (mm)
JAMMU & KASHMIR            Banihal          22.0(-2)         7.1(-4)   13.30
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Batote          20.7(-3)         8.7(-3)    4.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Bhaderwah          20.3(-5)         6.6(-2)   10.60
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Gulmarg           7.4(-7)         1.0(-3)   10.20
JAMMU & KASHMIR       Jammu          29.1(-7)        18.0(-4)    0.20
JAMMU & KASHMIR        Katra          25.2(-7)        15.2(-4)    1.60
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Kukernag          18.8(-2)         4.0(-5)   17.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Kupwara          17.6(-5)         8.7(0)    6.20
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Pahalgam          17.0(-2)         4.6(0)    8.40
JAMMU & KASHMIR     Qazigund          21.0(-1)         6.6(-2)    1.80
JAMMU & KASHMIR      Srinagar          17.8(-2)         8.2(-2)    4.70
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Bilaspur          27.6(-9)        15.9(-4)   28.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Chamba          25.3(-12)        11.6(-3)    NIL
HIMACHAL PRADESH    Dharamsala          28.6(-1)        12.4(-7)    NIL
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Hamirpur          31.2(-5)        16.7(-4)    0.30
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Kalpa           9.2(-11)         3.0(-3)    6.40
HIMACHAL PRADESH      Keylong          15.9(-2)         2.6(-2)   TRACE
HIMACHAL PRADESH   Sundernagar          24.6(-9)        13.4(-3)    5.20
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Kullu          19.6(-10)        11.3(-1)    4.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Manali          13.4(-10)         5.6(-3)    6.00
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Shimla          19.9(-3)         8.2(-5)   17.60
HIMACHAL PRADESH        Una          32.8(-5)        14.3(-3)    1.80
HIMACHAL PRADESH       Nahan          23.8(-10)        10.6(-11)   10.30
HIMACHAL PRADESH         Solan          23.0(-9)        12.5(-3)   15.00
UTTARAKHAND       Almora          25.6(-4)        10.6(-2)     NIL
UTTARAKHAND     Champawat          21.0(-4)        13.0(-2)     1.00
UTTARAKHAND     Dehradun          27.6(-7)        17.9(-2)     4.90
UTTARAKHAND    Mukteshwar          15.4(-8)        10.1(-1)     4.00
UTTARAKHAND      Mussorie          15.0(-7)        11.0(-3)     NIL
UTTARAKHAND      Nainital          22.1(-1)        12.8(-1)     1.00
UTTARAKHAND      Pantnagar          34.6(-2)        19.5(0)     0.30
UTTARAKHAND      Joshimath          13.7(-10)         9.9(-2)    14.00
UTTARAKHAND    Pithoragarh          21.5(-5)        11.6(-1)     0.60
UTTARAKHAND       Tehri          14.8(-9)         7.6(-3)     9.50
UTTARAKHAND     Uttarkashi          17.6(-8)        13.5(-2)     8.00
PUNJAB      Amritsar          32.0(-6)        17.8(-3)     8.60
PUNJAB    Ferozepore          29.9(-8)        18.9(-3)     4.00
PUNJAB  Anandpur Sahib          31.2(-7)        17.6(-4)    30.00
PUNJAB    Bhatinda          29.1(-9)        17.8(-5)    22.00
PUNJAB    Kapurthala          30.0(-8)        18.1(-3)     3.00
PUNJAB     Ludhiana          30.3(-9)        17.8(-5)     6.00
PUNJAB     Pathankot          29.5(-9)        17.8(-4)     NIL
PUNJAB     Patiala          30.0(-8)        18.0(-5)    10.00
CHANDIGARH    Chandigarh          30.1(-9)        17.8(-5)     9.00
HARYANA     Ambala          29.7(-8)        18.0(-5)    10.90
HARYANA     Bhiwani          29.6(-8)        17.2(-6)     3.60
HARYANA     Gurgaon          31.8(-8)        18.9(-6)    30.00
HARYANA       Hisar          29.0(-11)        17.7(-7)     9.40
HARYANA      Karnal          28.4(-10)        18.6(-4)    NIL
HARYANA  Kurukshetra          30.1(-9)        19.1(-4)    NIL
HARYANA     Narnaul          28.4(-10)        18.6(-4)    NIL
HARYANA      Rohtak          28.6(-8)        19.1(-4)    1.00
NEW DELHI    Safdarjung          30.6(-9)        19.0(-6)    3.60
NEW DELHI      Palam          31.2(-9)        18.5(-7)    9.80
RAJASTHAN      Ajmer          36.6(-4)        17.4(-10)    27.20
RAJASTHAN      Churu          30.3(-11)        17.7(-6)    29.00
RAJASTHAN      Jaipur          36.9(-3)        19.8(-6)    10.00
RAJASTHAN    Jaisalmer          37.3(-4)        25.5(1)    NIL
RAJASTHAN     Jodhpur          36.0(-6)        20.0(-6)    13.60
RAJASTHAN      Kota          38.9(-3)        22.0(-7)    3.50
RAJASTHAN   Sriganganagar          30.0(-11)        17.6(-5)    TRACE
RAJASTHAN      Barmer          37.8(-4)        26.0(0)    NIL
RAJASTHAN      Bikaner          34.6(-6)        22.1(-4)     3.60
RAJASTHAN   Chittorgarh          39.1(-2)        18.6(-6)     2.50
RAJASTHAN    Mount Abu          30.0(-2)        16.0(-5)    NIL
RAJASTHAN Sawai Madhopur           39.2(-3)        18.7(-7)     2.00
RAJASTHAN      Udaipur          35.9(-3)        20.4(-5)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH      Agra          37.8(-4)        24.7(0)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH     Aligarh          36.6(-3)        23.0(-1)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH    Allahabad          42.2(1)        23.8(-2)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH    Gorakhpur          40.7(2)        22.8(-1)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH     Bareilly          36.0(-3)        20.0(-4)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH    Fursatganj          39.6(-2)        23.4(-2)    0.20
UTTAR PRADESH      Hardoi          36.6(-2)        24.0(-1)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH     Jhansi          37.6(-4)        27.0(-1)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH     Kanpur          37.4(-4)        20.8(-4)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH    Lucknow          38.5(-1)        23.0(-1)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH   Shahjahanpur          36.6(-1)        23.0(0)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH    Moradabad          37.0(-2)        23.0(0)    NIL
UTTAR PRADESH      Meerut          31.0(-8)        20.3(-4)    1.60
UTTAR PRADESH  Muzaffarnagar          30.0(-7)        18.0(-3)    NIL


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Recent Heavy Rains in Kerala from BB-1....compiled by Vagarian Santosh


 And Karnataka Rains sent by Vagarian Puneet Bangera


Current Hot Conditions in the Sub Continent...as on 28th April 2014:

Gujarat in Grip of Heat Wave:

Monday 28th April, saw Gujarat under a heat wave. The days were as hight as 44.6c in Deesaand Idar. 44.4c was Bhuj, and this was touched after many years. Surendranagar saw 44.0c, Kandal was 43.3c, Ahemdabad 43.2c, Baroda 43.1c and Rajkot 43c.

Though high, none of these day readings are records. The highest for Idar was in 1977, when it touched 47.6c on 22nd April. For Deesa, it was 46.3c in 1958 ( 27th April).On the same day in 1958, Ahmdabad to was highest at 46.2c.Bhuj in April was 45.6c in 1893.

In the other "hotbed" Vidharbha, Chandrapur reached 44.6c and Wardha at 44.5c, Brahmapuri at 44.2c and Akola at 44.1c. Nagpur touched 43.7c.
The Hottest place in India on 28th April 2014 was barmer at 45.1c.

In Maharashtra, besides Vidharbh, Nanded reached 43.5c, Parbhani 42.4c, Aurangabad 40.7c, Jalgaon touched 43.2c, Ahmednagar was 41.9c, Solapur 41.4c, Pune AP 41.7c Pune 40.1c.

And Konkan was comparitively "cool and "pleasant, with Mumbai at 33.7c, Panjim at 34.7c , Ratnagiri saw  34.0c  and Alibag 31.4c.

Pakistan Heats up too: The Highest Day Temperatures tday were: Chhor 46°C, Nawabshah, Moenjodaro, Mithi, Sukkur & Lasbella 45°C. Karachi was hot at 42c, and Islamabad was 36c.

Just yesterday on Sunday ( thru the MW -3 article), we were 'aiming" towads these temperatures, with hot conditions "wanting" in Vidharbh and Sindh....

Nepal too heats up, with Nepalgunj reaching 40.8c, Dipayal saw 39.4c,Simra 37.8c. Kathmandu was 32.3c. 
There was some rain in Dhunkuta ( 13.4 mms) and Taplejung (6.7 mms)

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Posted Monday Night :

City Forecasts for next 3 days: Tuesday, 1st April, Wednesday,2nd April and Thursday, 3rd April:

Mumbai Scruz:
Tuesday: 34c - 23c
Wednesday: 34c - 23c
Thursday: 35c - 24c

Pune:
Tuesday: 38c - 19c
Wedmesday: 37c - 17c
Thursday:  39c - 19c

Delhi NCR: 
Tuesday: 31c - 19c
Wednesday: 33c - 19c....Drizzle in some parts 
Thursday:  34c - 18c.

Chennai:
Tuesday:  38c - 26c
Wednesday: 37c - 25c
Thursday:  36c -  26c

Hyderabad:
Tuesday:  39c - 24c
Wednesday:  38c - 24c
Thursday: 39c - 25c

Bangalore:
Tuesday: 36c - 23c
Wednesday: 35c - 22c
Thursday:  36c - 23c

Kolkata: Though hovering around 39c on Tuesday and Wednesday, will see thunder showers on Thursday.

Hot Spots: 
Nagpur rising to 41c from Tuesday. 
Raipur: With a thunder storm in the vicinity around the city, the temperatures will still remain around 40/41c.
Improving Weather: 
Bhubaneshwar will see Thunder showers popping up and bringing down the day temperatures to 38/39c from Tuesday.

Heat increases in more regions of NW India, Gujarat (Including Surat and Bharuch) and Central India and Sindh region (Pakistan) from Friday 4th April

Pakistan:
Karachi remains sunny and around 33c. Heat increases from Thursday in Sindh. Nawabshah and other Sindh cities to touch 40c from Thursday/Friday as heat increases.
Islamabad remains the best of all, with light showers on Tuesday and wednesday. Keeping the day around 27/28c.

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Posted on Friday Night for the 15th and 16th March

M-2 is covering regions of Extreme Western Pakistan as on Friday...clouds from the WD are seen covering Balochistan and high clouds over the Pak Punjab regions, and parts of Upper Sindh.
M-2 , without a deep trough, moves Eastwards, and the slanting incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea caused by an advancing cold front, will cause sudden rising of Cb clouds, bringing thunderstorms to Balochistan and western Pakistan on Satursday. 
Moving Eastwards on Sunday, rain and snow expected in Western Paistan, Pakistan Punjab and parts of Upper Sindh regions. 
Sunday, we can expect precipitation in Kashmir, Cloudy and showers in Indian Punjab and Haryana on Sunday.
Would expect very heavy falls in Northern Pakistan and Kashmir and hills  of HP on Sunday. 
Dry weather in rest of India.

Sunday evening/night, regions in Southern Sindh can expect spotty rains or thunder showers. Due to the inflow of moisture, Regions around Hyderabad (Pakistan), Nawabshah, Dadu and Khairpur could see showers on Sunday evening/night. 

Day temperatures showing a rising trend i Gujarat and Vidharbh. Both these regions will record 37/38c by Sunday.

Islamabad would be cloudy with a few showers on Saturday, increasing on Sunday. Two days accumulated rainfall could be 30-35 mms.

Delhi NCR will remain cloudy on Saturday, after a misty Saturday morning. Sunday warming up to 28/29c. Traces of rain on Sunday night in some parts.
(Arpit from Ghaziabad, has estimated 50 mms for Islamabad and 5 mms for Delhi...M.Waqas from Islamabad has estimated 30 mms for Islamabad and 0 mms for Delhi till Monday morning)

Mumbai will have a warm weekend. Days will be hot, with the mercury topping 35c on Sunday. Nights being partly cloudy will be warm at 22/23c.
Pune, partly cloudy, and days heating up to 36/37c.

Hyderabad will be partly cloudy on Saturday and clear on Sunday. Days warming up to 35c.


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VIDARBHA maximum Day temperatures on Thursday, 6th March 2014...Lets compare these in May !! 

 AKOLA                              29.1(-5.7) 
 AMRAOTI                         30.2(-4.6) 
 BULDHANA                     27.2(-5.1) 
 BRAMHAPURI                26.1(-8.0)
 CHANDRAPUR               25.6(-10.0) 
 GONDIA                            26.1(-7.4) 
 NAGPUR                          26.7(-7.1) 
 Washim                             26.0 
 WARDHA                          26.9(-7.7)
 YEOTMAL                        25.4(-8.6) 

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Posted 13th Night for Weekend :

UAC over West MP expected to descend to Sea level as a low, and expected to move eastwards. A trough lingers on along the Gujarat/N.Maharashtra coast for a day.

Mumbai: (Friday/Saturday/Sunday)
Friday 14th: Partly cloudy. Clearing later in the day. Very cloudy by evening/night.
Rain possible late Friday night/Saturday morning.

Saturday, 15th,  morning in Mumbai will be cloudy with rain in some areas. Rain up to 2-4 mms possible in some parts. Clearing by evening. 
Cloudy and dull in Eastern Outer townships, with light rain.

Sunday, Mumbai  will be hazy and sunny.

Surat may get cloudy on Friday, and see some rain on Friday night.

Delhi NCR: Thursday night and Friday will see a cloudy and overcast day. Intermittent thundery rains, in the day. Max temp should be lower than Thursday, and around 18c.
Heavy rains likely in Indian Punjab. Some rains possible in Pak Punjab also, specially Eastern regions.

Saturday 15th: Rains decrease in Delhi as the day progresses. But showers continue in the East of Delhi, in Meerut and Ghaziabad.
Very heavy rains/snow in HP, with good precipitation in Simla.
Pockets of rain in Pak Ounjab, moving away on Sunday.

Sunday 16th: Rains move away from the Delhi/UP region. 
Heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday in Western Nepal. Kathmandu gets showers, more on Sunday.
Sunday rains in Bihar and Bengal. 

Sharp showers expected in Kolkata on Sunday.Day will be misty and overcast. Drop in temperature.
Heavy showers in Coastal W.Bengal and Bangladesh.

Chennai will see cloudiness increasing from Saturday. Light Showers possible on Sunday and Monday.

Muscat will be cloudy with light ran on Friday...clearing by afternoon.


Yes ! Its Raining in Muscat, and here are the Pics from Muscat sent by Minita on Thursday Morning:








Posted Tuesday 11th, Night

With reference to the situation given on Sunday, the expected LWD has formed , and is running east to west from Coastal Bengal to MP along the 25N line. A trough end formation in the eastern part of the LWD near the Odisha/Bengal border, where the moist SE winds from the Bay meet the cold NE winds, we see some clouds and 
thundery formations.

Wednesday and Thursday: 
Light rains likely in parts of coastal Odisha and adjoining Bengal.
Rainfall likely in Nagpur region, Rewa, Umeria and Sagar regions of MP and Kanpur region of adjoining SW Uttar Pradesh.
Dry Weather in rest of region and Pakistan.Islamabad remains cold on Wednesday, with a rise by a couple of degrees (minimum temperature) on Thursday. Cloudy over Sindh on Thursday and Friday.

A Low ( in the LWD trough) will most likely form  over MP region on Thursday, could possibly move North towards Delhi on Friday, and subsequently Eastwards towards Kathmandu.

Mumbai: Skies turning partly cloudy. Winds becoming westerly by Thursday. Wednesday morning should be around 15/16c. Thursday a bit higher to around 19c. Friday morning will be about 20c 
Nagpur: Light rain expected. Cloudy to overcast weather. 
Pune: Temperatures rising by Thursday to 13c (minimum).Foggy morning on 14th friday.
Delhi NCR: Wednesday morning low expected 5/6c, Thursday expected 7c, but Getting cloudy from Thursday night...hence night temperatures rise by 3/4c to around 10/11c on Friday morning. Friday forecast will be put up later, but thunder rain expected on Friday. Around 20 mms between Friday/Saturday.

Rainfall expected in Muscat on Thursday. fairly good rains over Oman.

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Synoptic Weather Situation expected in The Indian Sub-Continent for the next 4 days : Monday 10th Feb -  Thursday 13th Feb: (Posted Sunday Night)

As on Sunday, a WD (not numbered) situated in the upper air over Northern Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan moves away N/NE.
The winds currently are sweeping from N/NW along the entire plains of Northern India and Pakistan, and also along the sub Himalayan plains, Central India and Western India.
***
Monday: Cold conditions and below normal temperatures in Northern Pakistan, Central Sindh and Northern/Western and Central India next 2 nights. Lowest in next 2 nights in Punjab plains could reach 1/2c.
***
Tuesday, we could possibly see a Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD) running East-West roughly from the W.Bengal/Odisha border on the East Coast of India westwards towards Chattisgarh. 
Winds South of the LWD would be SW and NE North of the trough. This may possibly bring light to moderate showers to Northern Odisha (Including Sambhalpur) and adjoining Coastal Bengal.
Kolkata will be cloudy with light rains in some areas of city or vicinity.
Cloudy in Northern Pakistan and Western Nepal.
****
Wednesday, the trough would possibly stretch upto West MP, with strong Easterlies blowing along the line across Central India. Southern parts of the LWD will see South winds (Nagpur), and North winds in UP and Bihar..

Kolkata could cloudy skies and light rains in some parts.

Chances of Westerly winds over Mumbai from Wednesday, would bring in moisture and show a gradual rise in temperatures...hitherto pleasant and around 15c/16c (Scruz) till Tuesday of the week.

Delhi NCR also remains below normal next 2 nights, with lows reaching 6/7c. 

Chennai, now pleasant and comfortable as per its normal, was 17.8c on Sunday morning. Would expect the minimum temperatures to be around 18/19c till Tuesday , with a rise from Wednesday.

Cloudy weather in North Pakistan.Clearing after Wednesday.
Islamabad will be partly cloudy till Tuesday with lows around 3/4c next 2 nights. 
Karachi clear, with a range  between 26c and 11/12c.
***
Thursday: There is a chance that the trough may have an embedded low , somewhere over Central India by Thursday. Winds would be anti clockwise around the low.The winds at the 500 hp level are expected to pick up speed, and aided by the jet streams may reach around 45-50 knts in the W/SW direction across the Indian region. This would mean ideal conditions at 18500 feet for clouds to appear. 
Clouding could cover the region from Konkan across North Mah into Central India towards the low.
Clouds appearing with light rains in Nagpur on Thursday.
Clouds would also show up in Mumbai on Thursday night or Friday.

Low ( being in the trough), can strengthen from Friday, and move N/Ne from central India location to N and NE India. Precipitation for Kathmandu from this system....brief update on Tuesday night on developments.



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted Wednesday Night:

F-2 is approaching, albeit a day later than our forecast on Monday Night (below)

The F-2 schedule is a day late, and should be otherwise taking the route mentioned on Monday (below)...
Parts of NCR received light rain on Wednesday , 5th, morning....can get light rains on Thursday and extending till Friday morning..
Good rains in NW India and heavy snow/rains in Kashmir..
Cold in Mumbai after Friday..

Rains from system in Islamabad on Thursday/Friday, and maintaining the amount, 30-35 mms.
Light drizzles in Karachi expected ..
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Monday 3rd February, Night:

On expected lines, Islamabad was cold and rainy on Monday. The day temperature was expected to fall by  8c on Monday (Vagaries' forecast on Saturday), but fell by 11 degrees to a maximum of 12c on Monday. Several areas and parts of the city received between 12 and 23 mms in the day ( Islamabad Z.P 23, Saidpur 13, Golra 12).
Many cities and towns faced the wet F-1 on Monday, with Abbotabad 69, Lower Dir 67, Pattan 59, Balakot 49, Parachinar 47, Saidu Sharif 46 amongst the highest amounts.
Rawalpindi had a cold day at 13c, with 20 mms rain. Murree and the hills around had good snowfall.

The Punjab and Haryana region also received light rains in some parts, while Delhi NCR received very light drizzle on Monday morning in some areas.

Now, F-1 will move away to the East..East, not NE..so precipitation will also be moving Eastwards.

But, as mentioned in our Long Term forecast, another back to back WD is moving in fast. F-2 ..is expected to bring more rains and snow to Northern Pakistan and Pak Punjab regions from 5th , Wednesday. 
Fairly stable with an induced low over the Upper Sindh region, the WD will move east into India thru North rajasthan on 5th or 6th.
Kashmir expected to get heavy snowfall on 5th/6th..bringing in a cold wave.

Delhi NCR can see a slight drop in temperatures (minimum) for a few days before it gets cloudy on 5th, with some light rains in the evening (5th) and some parts getting light rains on 6th.(around 2-4 mms).

Mumbai will see high clouds making the sky hazy. Currently, winds have changed from Monday evening to NE, but day temperature did not fall as expected, and remained around 33/34c. But, night temperature dropped to 18.8c on Monday morning, from 21c ...Now days are Expected to be around 31/32c, and lows will fall by a couple of degrees. 
From 6th, Mumbai sees a change as we can expect the winds to be stronger from the NW..cooling by another 2/3c.

Cities in interior Mah will see a rise in day temperatures.

Karachi will be partly cloudy with sunny spells...On Thursday, 6th, a light passing rain (1-3 mms) could be expected in some areas.

Islamabad remains cold, and even colder  (10/11c) on 5th, with fog and rains. Between 5th and 6th, the Capital can expect around 30-35 mms.

Himachal Pradesh report:

The state capital Shimla, which had a cloudy day, received heavy intermittent showers in the evening while tribal areas of Lahaul and Spiti, Kinnaur, Pangi and Bharmaur, the mighty Dhauladhar and Churdhar ranges in Kangra and Sirmaur and high mountain passes had intermittent heavy snowfall.

The minimum temperatures which improved by a few notches again plummeted after fresh rains and snow, and the local MeT office has warned of heavy snowfall at isolated places in the next 48 hours.

Bharmaur, Keylong and Kalpa recorded a low of minus 8.1 degree Celsius, minus 2.7 degree and minus 0.4 degree, while Manali shivered at 2.0 degree C.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synoptic Situation as on Friday 3rd Evening and Outlook for Weekend, 4th/5th Jan:

1. A UAC formed in the upper trough over Gujarat will descend to lower levels and move nto a NE trough around  MP and UP. 
Saturday 4th and Sunday 5th, the resultant effect will be light rains in Northern MP in Guna, Satna, Rewa and Gwalior regions and adjoining UP regions of Hamirpur, Jhansi and Kanpur. 
Delhi NCR will have some scattered clouds on the weekend...specially Saturday. Will keep the day around 19/20c and nights around 7/8c.
Cold conditions prevail in Rajasthan and Punjab, with near 0c temps.

2. Western Disturbance J-1 will move into Pakistan from the West on 7th January. Before that, rains expected in Dubai and Muscat on Monday/Tuesday

3. The Well Marked Low area in te Southern Bay will deepen and intensify (BB-1),and weaken. Heavy rains over Sri Lanka and Southern TN regions on the weekend. BB-1 will move into Thanjavur region and weaken. Rainfall in southern TN and isolated in TN. Chennai will be cloudy with some occasional showers on the weekend.
Bangalore will be partly cloudy, with very light drizzles in some parts, with a temperature range of 27-16c.

4. Mumbai turns pleasant after the 33c stint last 2 days. North winds commence from this weekend, and bring down the days to within 29/30c. Nights around 19c.
Instability will bring some clouds to Pune, and keep the weather in the 30c-14c range.

5. Very cool weather in Karachi with the days remaining within 21/22c. Nights hovering around 6/7c will remain around 7c this weekend. North winds continue. Foggy around 4th morning.
Nawabshah is experiancing cold nights at 2/3c. Freezing temperatures will prevail in parts of Sindh ( Nokkundi will be around 0c) and Balochistan.
Kathamndu nights have been rising, and was 1.8c on Friday. Next bout of precipitation from J-2.



Posted 1st Jan 2014:
South: 
The easterly trough mentioned earlier has a UAC embedded in it as expected. The UAC will descend and form a Low in the Southern Bay somewhere East of Sri Lanka. Probably deepening more, can move WNW and approach the Southern TN coast by Friday.
It will move towards the East coast of Sri Lanka, where heavy rains are expected from Thursday.

North: 
Fog expected in Delhi NCR region on the 2nd and 3rd. After that, as the humidity reduces, intensity of fog will decrease.

Effect of WD over Kashmir....Srinagar IAF station receives 137 mms, Batote 89 mms, Pahalgam 67 mms, Banihal and Quasigund 50 mms...Max/Min temperatures on 31st December...Batote  0.6c/-0.5c, Gulmarg  -6c/-8c,  Pahalgam 0c/-5c , Leh. 0c/-7c, Srinagar  0.5c/-1.3c.
Following snow at the runway at the airport here and continuous snowfall, neither any flight could land there nor take off. All the flights were cancelled. The entire Kashmir Valley is under the thick carpet of snow. It started snowing around midnight.Over 2 feet of snow had accumulated around Jawahar Tunnel.
Snowfall began in Banihal, Patnitop, Ramsu, Batote, and in Ramban city too. 

Srinagar


Pahalgam
Pics from Greater Kashmir
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Thursday 28th November:

Kathmandu:

As Neeraj asks, and mentions, we see portions of Nepal temperatures in the above normal range. Some regions are above normal by upto 3/4c.
Kathmandu was hovering around 22c in the day and 8/9 c at night.
This was due to the SE winds blowing in from the Bay. Moist warm winds. Unfavourable weather for the capital due to bay systems dominating the scene...and of course no WDs.
But, as all Bay systems die out, i see West or NW winds taking a grip from Saturday. Days may remain around 21/22c, but nights will drop by 2/3c to around 5c from this weekend.


Posted on Friday 11th October @ 1.30 pm IST

Friday's Rains in Delhi. West UP and HP..were WD Rains...Why? 

Several parts of Delhi NCR received thunder showers on Friday morning. Rainfall ranged between 10-60 mms. Several parts of West UP. HP and adjoining Punjab also received showers. 
Though a clarification need not be given, i would not like to disappoint some young vagarians  who had asked me directly as to the reason of these rains . Whether WD or SWM ? 

Remember, Vagaries has justified and withdrawn SWM from the region. It was actually withdrawn in a hurry in anticipation of the WD, which has arrived, as expected on Friday, and not confuse these showers with SWM.

An average weatherman will understand from the charts and Images below.





These NMCC, Thai Met Map and IMD sat Image shows the WD, and the 850 chart shows the WD trough sliding down. The Thai map also justifies the monsoon axis now below the central parts of the Indian region.

Any one with a basic knowledge of the pressure charts will understand why the winds are ESE in NCR region now, if moisture is rushing towards the WD in the region. An extra inflow of moisture has occurred due to a powerful system in the Bay.

Meteorologists can clearly read and decipher the chart, unlike the common person, for whom "rains are rains". Not concerned from which system.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NE Monsoon Watch - 2 (Advance Parameters)...3rd October 2013

This year, the advent of the NEM will have to endure the basic parameters first.
The overall advance parameters will help in forecast estimates. 

--Mainly attributed to the withdrawal of the SWM, the SWM must withdraw from the country. Of-course, the SWM withdrawal and NEM setting in the South is almost simultaneous  
Any given time, the winds North of the axis are E or SE in the Northern plains (during the SWM). As the axis comes South, the winds towards the North remain basically East, and cross the AP coast as the NEM.
We see the axis remaining around 20N till the 15th of October this year.
The ITCZ moves Southern most to 10S during January/February.

--MJO is another parameter. Initially, to some extent, the neutral MJO is not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Anyway, the latest models show the MJO remaining almost "neutral" till the 15th at least.  Its only after 20th October that the MJO is shown getting stronger (and more effective) in the entire Bay region.

During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High, with a strong MJO to help,  develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. 

--Warm SSTs are prevailing west of Java and Sumatra.Systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.
Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

--The ENSO remains neutral.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is around +3  over the past seven days, with a 30-day SOI value of + 35.6 as on 22nd September, with September average at +3.9. Indicative of Neutral ENSO.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing, after 16th October. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape .

Considering the fact, that another depression from the Bay is expected to form near Andamans around 8th October, and apparently as per conditions today, expected to track and cross the North AP/Odisha coast of India around the 14th, we expect the Monsoon axis to remain around 20N till the 15th .

Seeing the situation as on today, I expect the NEM advance and commence  in TN by the 20th of October. 
But, we monitor the parameters. See which is getting favourable, or see if any are going negative for the NEM advance. 

Next in the series NE Monsoon Watch -3 (Advance), will be published on 9th October. 
NE Monsoon Watch -4 will deal with the quantum of rains.


These reports are my personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also my own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NE Monsoon Watch -1....1st October 2013

An Introductory Note on the Basic Conditions and Formation of the North East Monsoon:

With the 2013 rainy seasons hesitating to change between the SWM and NEM, an amateur's attempt at a brief Summary of the NEM.

-The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
For the NEM, it is not so.
In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

-The SWM has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

-The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.
-The Upper Air temperatures show a Northward gradient in the NEM. Near 10N it is normally warmest, and dropping by 8c at 30N.

-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons. 
In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

-The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.

-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.

Some points taken from Bose's book.

The 2nd Part of this will cover the parameters involved in the setting of the NEM...will be published on 3rd October at 11 pm IST.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday's  (9th August) Weather details World Wide: 

The hottest in the World today was 45c at Bir Moghrein (Mauritania).

Hottest in Asia: 
Yanbu AP (S.Arabia) 45.0c, Nasiriyah (Iraq) 44.8c, Dalbandin (Pakistan) 44.5c.

The coldest Day today, the lowest maximum temperature was at Cape Billings (Russia) : -1c. Outside the Siberian region, the coldest day on Friday was in Tsetsen (Mongolia) at 12c. Jabael Shams in Oman saw a high of 17c.

In the North American continent, Fairfield (Ill) was the hottest at 43c. Fairfield, had the maximum Heat Index today at 66.2c.

On a colder side, the world's lowest temperature on Friday was ,as expected, at Vostok Station, Antartica at -61c.
Coldest place in Asia was Ostrov Golomjannyj (Russia) : -3c. Coldest in India, Darbuk (Ladakh) at 5c.

Windiest Place in Asia was at Sisanjianfang in China, with high winds gusting at 67 mph (108 kmph) and Socotra AP also saw winds at 52 mph ( 84 kmph).
San Luis (Calif) was windy at 61 mph (98 kmph) 


x------------------------------------x--------------------------------------x------------------------------------x

Posted on 15th June at 23:15 hrs IST:
Vortex Forms over North/Central Konkan off the West Coast of India on Saturday Evening.





Hottest regions of Sub-Continent on Tuesday, 14th May 2013   


x---------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x-


Synoptic Situation and Outlook for next 4 Days...8th May - 11th May





Map shows System BB-1, the graded rainfall region and track after the 11th of May...LWD is also shown.

1. The UAC which formed on a "short Term" basis and moved into the Arabian Sea, persists as on &th , but will fizzle out by 8th May, Wednesday. Hence precipitation will decrease in Kerala.

2. Low BB-1, now formed as a weak Low, is off the SE coast of Sri Lanka, and is situated at 6N and 87E as on Tuesday evening.
Now, this is expected to deepen, to 999 mb, and reach depression strength by the 10th/11th. However, BB-1 will not travel much in the next 3 days, and develop further almost in a stationary position till 10th. 
After the 11th, it is likely to track North initially and then curve slightly towards the N/NE. (See Map).
SWM moves into the South Andaman Seas, after 12th, as soon as BB-1 starts tracking.

3.A line of wind dis-continuity, a trough at sea level, runs from East MP into Maharasthra and Interior Karnataka into Kerala. Thundershowers will continue along the line shown in Map.

4. A weak WD runs into the Northern regions of Pakistan and States of Kashmir, HP and North Punjab on the 11th.

5. A deep depression also forms in the next 3 days below the equator, at 5S, exactly South of BB-1. Both form simultaneously, and form a "8" wind formation from 9th of May.



x-------------------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x----------------------------x--------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------x------------------------

At the world's coldest place on Earth..@ Vostok(Antarctica)..

Jan : -27.7/-38.4, Feb :-41.2/ -53.2 , Mar:-56.5 /-65.6..

Snow: around 32 mms (till Mar) ..Highest temp :-23.5 c(till Mar)..
Lowest temp: -74.9 c (till Mar)..

In the heart of Africa..@ Nairobi Airport(Kenya)..

Jan : 26.6/14.6, Feb :28.5/13.4 , Mar:27.7 /15.6..

Rain: around 19 cms (till Mar) ..Highest temp :32c(till Mar)..
Lowest temp: 10 c (till Mar)..


At the world's highest capital city..@ La Paz(Bolivia)..Altitude:4060 mtrs above msl..

Jan : 15.1/04, Feb :14.7/04 , Mar:16.2 /03.2..

Rain/Snow: around 30 cms (till Mar) ..Highest temp :18.5c(till Mar)..
Lowest temp: -2 c (till Mar)..

At the world's coldest capital city..@ Ulan Bator (Mongolia)..

Jan : -15.7/-32.5, Feb :-13.4/ -32.4 , Mar:0.6 /-16.1..

Rain/Snow: around 18 mms (till Mar) ..Highest temp :09.6 c(till Mar)..
Lowest temp: -41 c (till Mar)..

The year till now ..@ Singapore /Changi..

Jan : 30.9/24, Feb :30.2/ 23.9 , Mar:32.4 /25.2..

Rain/Snow: around 82cms (till Mar) ..Highest temp :33.8(till Mar)..
Lowest temp: 21.5 c (till Mar)..

The year till now ..@ London /Heathrow..

Jan : 06.6/01.9, Feb :06.5 / 01.1 , Mar:07 /0.9..

Rain/Snow: around 13cms (till Mar) ..Highest temp :NA..
Lowest temp: -04.2 c ..

.@ Mumbai SCZ ..

Jan : 30.9/14.8 , Feb :31.6 / 17.4 , Mar:34/19.3 , Apr:33/22.1 

Rain: 0 mms ..Highest temp :40.5..Lowest temp:10.4 c ..



The year till now ..@ Srinagar..

Jan : 07.8/-02.4, Feb :10.8 / 0.9 , Mar:18.6 /05.2..

Rain/Snow: 34cms ..Highest temp :NA..Lowest temp: -05.5 c ..

The year till now ..@ Nagpur..

Jan : 29.3/11.3, Feb :32.9 / 15.5 , Mar:37 /18, Apr: 41 / NA

Rain: 5 cms ..Highest temp :45.7..Lowest temp: 05.6 c ..

The year till now ..@ Chennai (Meenam)..

Jan : 30.9/20.9, Feb :31.7 / 21.7 , Mar:33.9 /23.2, Apr: 36.5(estimated) / NA

Rain: 5 cms ..Highest temp :NA..Lowest temp: 19.2 c ..

The year till now ..@ Bangalore..

Jan : 30/16.4, Feb :31.5 / 18.1 , Mar:34 /20.7, Apr: 35.6 / NA

Rain: 3 cms(Airport) ..Highest temp :37.6..Lowest temp: 14.2 c ..

The year till now ..@ Delhi SFD..

Jan : 19.7/06.2, Feb :23.4 / 11 , Mar:31.6 /15.9, Apr: 36.4 / NA

Rain: 15 cms ..Highest temp :42..Lowest temp: 01.9 c ..

The year till now ..@ Panji /Goa..

Jan : 33.4/20, Feb :33.6 / 21.3 , Mar:34.5 /23..

Rain: 01 mm ..Highest temp :38.7..Lowest temp: 17.2 c ..



How some cities fared in April..Hot or Normal ?









Posted on 30th April @ 10.30 pm IST

Outlook for next 3 days..





Posted on 28th April @ 11.40 pm

Outlook for 29th April - 1st May.



x----------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------x------------------------------------------------x
Posted on 14th April @ 9.00 pm IST

Outlook for 15th April - 18th April;




Though A-4 moves into Northern most parts of India on 16th Tuesday, , we see precipitation restricted to Kashmir, HP and hills of Utteranchal. Very light rains will occur in West Rajasthan on 16th/17th.

Thundershowers will be heavy and in all regions of Meghalaya and Assam. 
Next 4 days, Bangladesh gets heavy thundershowers with squally winds, some severe.

On Wednesday 17thand Thursday 18th, we see some thundershowers with squally winds in Central Bengal regions.
Southern Orissa/adjoining AP regions like Srikakulam, Dharakote and Chhatrapur will also get showers.

Northern regions of Pakistan will get precipitation on Monday 15th and Tuesday16th, while rest of Pakistan is expected to be dry. 
Barring the extreme North, we see most of Sindh and Punjab (Pakistan) showing a steady rise in day temperatures. 
We can expected places like Chhor, Nawabshah, Larkana or Turbat, or places in Sindh/Balochistan to reach 45c by Wednesday.

Hyderabad and Sukkur will rise to 43/44c, while Islamabad may just about reach 35c by this forecast period. Hot spot Sibi would be around 41c. 

Similarly, the border towns of Rajasthan in India will be rising to 41/42c this week.

Heat Wave (43c-46c) is likely in Vidharbh, adjoining Chattisgarh and complete Orissa. Northern AP will also see a heating up as with plains of UP.

City Weather for next 4 days, 15th April - 18th April:
Mumbai: Partly cloudy from Tuesday. Days around 33c at Scruz and nights at 22c. Wednesday will be around 32/33c at Scruz and 31c at Colaba, with a pleasant breeze from W/NW. Nights will be 24/25c at Colaba.
Outer townships will be partly cloudy from Tuesday, but seeing a drop in night temperatures to 20c on Wed/Thursday. Day will be around 37/38c till Wednesday, and 37c on Thursday.
Pune: Sunny, but temperatures around the 38/39c mark till Tuesday. Wednesday sees a drop to 36/37c, with a pleasant night at 18/19c.

Surat: Will also see day temperatures pleasantly around 34/35c after Tuesday. 30 kmph winds from the SW from Tuesday/Wednesday evening. Nights will be around 25c.

New Delhi NCR: Hazy days, with thundery developments on Tuesday evening. Clearing by night. No meaningful precipitation expected. Wednesday, no precipitation and a rise in day temperatures will reach 40c by Thursday. Warm winds in the afternoon.

Kolkata: while hovering around 38c, thundershowers expected in some parts on Wednesday and Thursday.

Goa: Sunny Goa will be around 33 - 25c next 4 days.





MW-2 will be Published on April 18th 



x-------------------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------------------------------x------------------------------------------------------------x----------------x----------------------------------------------x----------------------------------------------
Posted on 11th April at 10.25 pm IST




This weekend, 13th /14th April, special rain forecast for Eastern Chattisgarh, Bihar, Northern Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal. Heavier thundershowers on Sunday in Bihar and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal. Southern Bangladesh can get heavy thundershowers. The NE states of Meghalaya and Assam can get thundershowers. 
Heavy rain around the Bihar/West Bengal border.
Thundershowers are likely on Sunday in Utterakhand and West UP. Parts of Delhi NCR (North and East)can get a thundershower/duststorm on Sunday.
Thundershower popping up in East Vidharbha.

For the weekend, in Pakistan, we see duststoms/thunderstorms in pockets and some regions of Upper and Central Sindh. Gusty winds with the storms. 
Heat spell likely in SE sindh, Parts of Gujarat, and Eastern Vid and adjoining regions.
humidity increasing along Konkan and Goa coastline.

Mumbai Scruz: Friday, clear with W/NW evening breeze. High around 32c and around 21c as low. Saturday warming up a bit, and Sunday will see a cloudy morning and day warmer at 34/35c.
Outer townships see a definite warming from Sunday to a day's high of 38/39c.


Kolkata: Saturday can see a thundershower popping up in the vicinity, and/or in some parts of city. 
Sunday, city will get thundershower with gusty winds. Around 7-10 mms. Temperatures around 38c in the day, but rising to 28c on Friday night and saturday night. Sundays showers can cool the night, for a 25c on Monday morning.

Delhi NCR: Hot and sunny..But getting hazy on Saturday, with dull evenings. Sunday will possibly see thundery developments in the afternoon/evening. Dust raising winds with precipitation in some parts. More likely towards East and North.

Surat: Sunny and hot. Breezy with W/NW winds. Possibly touching 37/38. Lows around 24/25c.




x---------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------------x--------------------------------x------------------------------
March 2013

Precipitation:
March saw 4 WDs, and a persisting East-West trough in Central India. 
Between Kashmir, HP, UP, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Utterakhand, the March rainfall deficit was -64%. So, even the 4 WDs in the month were not enough as they lacked the punch and strength.
But the trough line (repaetedly harped upon in vagaries) kept the MP region in rainfall surplus as seen in the Map.
South too remained in excess with the occasional thundershowers.  


Special Feature:
As pointed out by Pradeep, the most surprising, and disappointing feature of March 2013 was the very amount of rainfall in Cherrapunji. The world famous "rainy town" has received on 7.4 mms in March this year,( i would add, with only 3 raining days above 2 mms of rain), and only 34 mms from 1 st Jan this year ! 
The few instances of a dry March for Cherrapunji in the last 100 years: 
1909 - 5.8 mm
2013 - 7.4 mm
1973 - 7.7 mm
1924 - 7.9 mm
1954 - 8.1 mm
1908 - 8.9 mm
1962 - 10 mm. (Figs also from Pradeep).
Lets hope for a superb recovery for this rainiest place to preserve its reputation.

Temperatures:
There occured an initial heat wave along coastal Maharashtra, Saurashtra and coastal Gujarat, we have not seen any major heat outbursts in the month.

However, the overall average March temperatures were normal in central India  (Nagpur @ -0.23c, Bhopal @ +0.4c) and marginally above normal in N/NW and Western India by 1.5c -2c, with New Delhi notching up around +1.4c above normal and Jaipur  +1.9c   for March
Lucknow was just about normal at -0.13c

Surat  just above because of the initial heat wave, while Mumbai recovered later and managed to stay "afloat" at   -0.08c.

However Goa could not recover and was at +1.12c...and slightly below in Southern India...Chennai was normal at -0.06c, while 
Bangalore was warmer at +0.86c.

In the East, Kolkata was warmer at +1.35c..(all readings till 28th March)
For March, Pakistan overall was marginally above normal too, with Karachi staying at +1.64c.


Next few Days, we may expect

Monday, 1st April: An UAC formed over Marathwada (as informed in vagaries), and could bring some thundery rain to Marathwada, adjoining Vidharbha (Akola) North AP and N.I.Karnataka (Gulbarga). A vertical line thru Marathwada till Kerala can have precipitaion. Bangalore and Mysore vicinity can expect an evening thundershower. 

Tuesday, 2nd April: A WD, A-1 to move into Northern Indian Sates of Kashmir and HP on Tuesday, 2nd April, with moderate precipitation and snow in higher reaches.

An induced low can form around Haryana region, bringing some evening showers to South Haryana, Delhi NCR (Rohtak, parts of NCR and Aligarh) and adjoining East MP regions on Tuesday. Tuesday night rains expected in Lucknow also.

Northern regions of Pakistan, including Islamabad and Lahore get thundershwoers on Tuesday as a result of A-1.

Wednesday 3rd: Precipitation moves east into West Bengal with thundery rain in pockets of Gangetic West Bengal. 
Kolkata has chances of a "hit or Miss" rain shower on evening of Wednesday, 3rd. Kolkata shooting to 40+ after Thursday..

and Heat wave developing in AP from friday. Heat wave also building up in SE Sindh........more later


These are some of the strangest looking clouds I’ve seen from Earth-observing satellites...see Inter Active Page


x-----------------------------x----------------------------------------x----------------------------------x---------x 

Brief prediction for next 3 days:
Last 3 days of March remain quite comfortable with no major heating up.

1.M-4 moves away from Friday onwards.

2. Friday 29th: Rainfall expected in hills of HP and Utteranchal. Thundershowers also expected in Jharkhand and Adjoining Southern West Bengal.
Kerala gets isolated showers.

3. Saturday 30th/Sunday 31st: Only rain region in the NE states of India and Eastern Bangladesh.
Sunday evening, we see Thunderclouds forming and precipitation in the North-South line joining Hyderabad (India) and Bangalore. Both cities can expect thundershowers on Sunday evening.

4. A-1 approaches Northern Pakistan on 1st April. System not expected to be very strong, though it may crop up an induced low in Northern Rajasthan on the 2nd of April.
Monday onwards forecast will be up Sunday night...

Mumbai: Partly cloudy in late evenings. Strong N/NW winds in the late afternoon keep the days around 31/32c and a cooler Saturday morning at around 19c for Scruz. Outer townships get partly cloudy in late evening. Saturday morning around 18c for outer townships. Strong N/NW winds in the afternoon/evenings.
Pune: Partly cloudy weekend. Friday and Saturday mornings will be cool around 16/17c. But days get warmer from Saturday and Sunday. May reach 38/39c.

Surat: Sunny weekend and temperature range around 36/37c and 22c.


New Delhi: Clearing from Friday, and clear Saturday and Sunday. Days will be around 31/32c and cooler on Saturday morning with lower minimum (18c). North winds dominate.
Kolkata gets the thundershower in some parts on Friday and Saturday evening.

Very humid and stuffy  weekend in Chennai..


x----------------------------x-----------------------------x--------------------------------x------------------------x
Synoptic situation as on evening of 20th March: A technical break up and analysis  of events and probabilities


A "greater" low has formed and prevails from SE Rajasthan southwards into West MP and thru Mah into N.I. Karnataka. 
This is a seasonal change, and it is an overall decrease in pressure taking palce, as the seasonal changes take place. The entire sub-continent region sees a gradual decrease in MSLP from March onwards.
It can be said it is a weakish trough formation due to the area extending far southwards creating the divergent winds typical of a trough.

What was the technicality of my earlier forecast ?An explanation of vagaries' estimated long term forecast put up earlier..

It was estimated, that a North -South trough (equivalent to a LWD) would form around the 25th, along the Rajasthan/Gujarat/MP line. By the 25th, M-3 would have moved away, from this region, and would have allowed this (N-S)trough to get strengthened as the M-4 WD trough gets embedded in this North south trough. This was the estimated calculations and prediction of events. Thus the forecast of the rainfall in Maharashtra and South Gujarat.

But lets see now, M-3, is yet to come, and will be upon the region by 23rd, but the N/S trough has already formed..and if this trough is still hanging around, may get pushed to the East. Maybe over Central India. 
In that case, the trough would precipitate over the Central India regions, a bit East of our predictions...we shall follow the sequence of events and monitior..for as is known the weather is always a mystery..

This is an technical explanation which sort i do not often put on blog. But, since vagaries has many a students and enthusiast followers, this would be a typical case for Met students to follow up (if they wish), for this is how things are forecasted...





x--------------------------------------x----------------------------------x-------------------------------------x-
The Week from 10th -17th March: A report..clearing some Doubts. Published on 18th March at 5.45 pm..

Last week, the actual day temperatures were in the 35-40c range right thru the Central India region, with the distribution of the temperatures in the 30-35c range North and South of the peak region. Elsewhere, the distribution is shown in this map from the IITM.



And the minimum temperatures distribution last week:Minimum temperature map (IITM) shows the 10-15c "green" getting pushed up by the 15-20c "yellow". 






But, let us not look at the dark colours of 35-40c and get worked up on the heating up....and the lows rising, or falling.

Looking at this from a different perspective, we see 10-17th March, was a comparatively warm and "but marginally above normal" week , temperature wise for most of North and Central India.The average temperature was 1c -3c above normal but for a small patch near Ganagnagar showing a rise of 3c-5c above the normal. 

However, Kathmandu was hotter than average by more than 5c, making it a really hot spring for the Eastern Nepal regions.








In our sub-continent region, the summer, from early March, normally starts from the South, with heat building up in the Southern Peninsula. On the other hand, the South enjoyed cooler climes. Translating it another way, it means the days did not rise as normally expected. 

Thie normal trend of heating would lead to the formation of a "vertical" trough in the Southern Peninsula by last week of March. Thundershowers then would be prevalent in the Kerala and Interior Karnataka region as a result.

But, contrary to that, last week, we had a "horizontal" trough, which got tilted ( SW to NE) and was located in the Central India regions. Producing thundershowers in Maharashtra, MP, Jharkhand and parts of WB.



Individually, City wise,








Mumbai had seen an abnormal push in the first week of this month, with the day rising to 40.5c. But, as we discuss, the week in question (10th-17th), we see the drop in the average temperature, and it is back in the "blue". Hence, in spite  of the rise, Mumbai's last 30 days average temperature is just about normal at -0.06c.

All in all, Mumbai is showing normal temperatures, so lets not blame the weather for our ailments !



Yes, Delhi has been warmer than normal, specially in March. Observe the "red" regions. The last 30 days average is hotter at +0.84c






As mentioned above, Chennai remains normal with the last 30 days average just about normal at -0.04c.





 Agreed Surat was warm in March and much of the graph shows "red" in March. The last 30 days average is +0.73c.





In the North, M-2 also traversed and made its way thru the North/Central Pakistan, and Northern India route..precipitating all along the route. Heavy falls rain ad snow were recorded in HP.




x---------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x-----------------------------------x---------------------------------x-------------------------------------------------x-------------------x
Posted on Friday 15th March @3 pm IST
Current ENSO Position:


The ENSO conditions remain neutral, even though the SOI has shown a rise and was at +9.5 on the 30 day value as on 10th March.Substantial rise from the February average of -3.6.
However, it may not mean much as the the pressure in the Central Pacific was high, and consequently the SOI component increased. Nothing unusual, as the SOI is volatile at this time of the year.
ENSO likely to remain neutral at least for next 3/4 months. Thus unlikely to have any adverse effect on commencement of Indian SWM.
The MJO has moved Eastwards from the Australian region, and thus creating a "break monsoon" conditions for W.Australia. Hence Cyclone "Tim"has formed near the East coast in the trough. 
The Monsoon trough is near the Northern Australian region. Hence no chances of cyclones forming in the Southern Indian Ocean region ,West of Australia in the near future.


M-2 Active in HP..

Shimla was enveloped by a thick layer of mist and lashed by heavy rain during the day on Thursday with intermittent thunderstorms while nearby destinations of Kufri, Narkanda received mild snowfall. 
Solang ski slopes, 13 km uphill from Manali, saw more snow.

Lower areas of the state including Dharamsala, Palampur, Solan, Nahan, Bilaspur, Una, Hamirpur and Mandi towns received moderate rains, bringing a considerable fall in temperature.

Higher reaches of Lahaul & Spiti, Kinnaur, Kullu, Chamba and slopes of Solang have experienced light to moderate snowfall with Keylong receiving more than 21cm of fresh snow, while the lower areas of Dharamshala, Palampur, Una, Solan, Bilaspur, Nahan, Mandi and Hamirpur received moderate rainfall. The lowest temperature was recorded at Kalpa at -01.4c.

In Shimla the maximum temperature plummeted to 7.1c, a fall of 14.5c from Wednesday's 21.5c.The minimum temperature was 4.3c in Shimla, a fall from Wednesday's 10.8c


The summer season in the Indian region is officially stated to start from the 1st. of March upto the arrival and commencement of the monsoon in the various states.

The ENSO conditions remain at neutral levels, with the SOI around -5.4. The monsoon axis is deep down South running from 10S into the Western Australia coasts. This is due to the the current "wave' of 3 cyclones in the Southern Indian Oceans. NE winds turn NW below the equator in the Eastern Asian regions.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains active across Australian longitudes, and is expected to remain there for another 15 days. Keeping the trough and rain activity near NW Australia. A low may cross into Sri Lanka in the neutral MJO regions by 10th.
A cyclone is brewing now near the Cocos Islands.
200 hpa jet streams are showing normal trends for this month. 

Thus, this summer for the sub-continent, we may expect another 2/3 WDs. The Second WD arpound 20-22 March may be of a stronger intensity, with rainfall in the plains.
Overall, rains will be above normal for March in Kashmir and hills. Normal in the plains and scanty elsewhere.
Some thundershowers can pop up in Vidharbha, Madhya Maharshtra, Interior Karnataka and Interior TN after 20th March.
Temperatures will be expected as per maps shown.





x--------------------------------------------x----------------------------------x------------------------------x---------------------------------------x-----------
The February as yet...The images are upto 9th February, but we can relate this to the current situation. 

Subsequently it has heated up a bit more in the S.Mah and Gujarat regions, .



February 2013 has been in the above normal range temperature wise for Eastern, Central and NE parts of India, while North has been a bit above normal too. The 35c range in the day has creeped upto the Southern MP and covered almost all of Gujarat.
The Southern peninsula region has been cooler. 
Pakistan is seen slightly above normal in the central region, otherwise mostly normal.
A heated patch is seen over central Nepal, covering Kathmandu, as stated by Neeraj.


After F-1, the scene had changed. Replacing the generally NW winds, the Indian region got a trough in the 850 mb height, with a weak low embedded in it. Now, as described before, a system travelling from South, brought about the rise in the temperatures in the Central and Gujarat regions. The effects of the Northerly winds were nullified, and SE and E winds prevailed and heated the region. Highs of 38.5c were reported from Surat, and overnight heating took Mumbai to 35c, and coastal cities of Mah and Karnataka to 35-37c last few days.

But, thankfully, its not as hot as February 2006..check the days here...


and the Mumbai record, so many days over 35c...

But post F-2, details of which are below, the over heated regions can hope for some relief.



x--------------------------x-------------------------x--------------------------x---------------------------------x----------

January: How Cold was it?

and Wet ?
January 2013:
City wise actual Temperature anomalies and departure:
Mumbai Avg lower than normal by 1.18c....cool


Bangalore Above Avg by 1.71c.....expectedly warm


 Pune Above by 0.95c...not much after all the grumbles


Chennai above by 1.18c..Expected

New Delhi Below by 1.39c...totally Satisfied

 Surat almost Normal at -0.06c....so no complaints



Karachi above by 1.14c

Delhi Rainfall has got the boost when the WD J-2 precipitated good rain around middle of the month.




February Outlook



February, as things look today, may see a series of at least 3/4 WDs moving into Northern Sub-Continent regions. The favourable 200 mb jet streams will be bringing in most of these, and at least 2 of these WDs in their aftermath will bring cold waves to the Sub-continent Northern, Western and Central regions. Cold NW winds dominate.
In short, we should be having an overall below normal temperatures, by 2c, in the North and at least overall below normal by 2/3c in Central and Western regions. Overall below normal would mean the average taken out by the end of the month of February for the Max and min temperauteurs.
Precipitation would be slightly above normal in NW India, normal in the Southern TN region. West coast, Keral will be normal and coastal Mah (Konkan) region may get some unseasonal rains 3rd week.

In the South, we may see an initial drop in nights in Karnataka and AP.We can a spell of rains from an Easterly wave pulse around the middle of the Month in Southern TN and the southern most peninsula regions. Sri Lanka may again get a major chunk.

In the Southern Hemishere, the MJO in South Indian Ocean remains weak, and hence the SPCZ remains in active. Not much cyclone activity. 



x--------------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x---------------------------------x-----------------------------------x----------------------------------------------------x

Posted on 29th Jan 2013
Tropical Cyclone "Felleng":


The cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere off the Madagascar coast, is now 14S and 55 E, with core winds at 90 knts and gusts to 110 knots, and 970 mb central pressure.Expected by models to move SW and then Southwards.
The current strength of the monsoon axis is weakish in the region as the MJO has also weakened.

Lower occurances of cyclones towards the Australian coast as the MJO weakens there.
All indicators and parameters of ENSO remain within the neutral range. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific continue on the cool side of neutral. The SST anomaly central Pacific region is -0.3 °C, slightly warmer than the previous week. ENSO should remain neutral.



The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued remain in neutral zone over the past two weeks. The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value as on 27 January is +1.7.
(Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions).

February overall forecast for Sub-Continent will be up on Vagaries on 31st January..late evening.


x------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x--------------------x



High at 850 on 14th:>>>



High on 15th Jan>>>>>

Check the eastwards shift of the high...relates to WD...

x------------------------------------------x-----------------------------------x------------------------------x--------------------------x--------------------------------x---------------------------x---------------------x


A review of the 2 day ( 11th and 12th Jan 2013) period Max temperatures predicted by vagaries. Actual fig shown and Predicted fig. in Brackets. 2 days actual taken combined and rounded.

Delhi                   24 (21/22)-          8 (9/10)
Mumbai              34(31)-                17(16)
Kolkata              23(21/22)-            11 (11/12)
Pune                  30 (32)-                 11 (12/13)......

The High initially moved North, and then NE on Saturday (predicted NE).
J-2 enters Sub-Continent on Friday 11th night ( predicted 11th night)..
NEM withdraws today as per IMD, but vagaries feels the winds still dominate NE, and all moisture will wipe out with winds going East on Sunday 13th (preicted 13th)....
(For personal assessment )




xxxxxxxx----------------------------------------xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx------------------------xxxxxxxxxxxx



Micro Weather : This  is a nice pic of "micro Weather". Day time heating on cement structueres and roads sometimes pulls approaching thunder squalls and we see more rains in city. This pic is of Paris in summer.




xx------------------------------xx---------------------------xx-------------------------xx-----------------xx

Maharashtra, Karnataka and parts of AP are experincing a cold wave on Sunday, 18th November. Partly due to an anti-cyclone over central India. The greatest departure was in the Vidharbha/Rayalseema region.

Temperatures as on 18th November with departures:
Chennai Ap was 17.2c a departure of 5.5c from the normal, and City at 17.6c was 5.3c below.   

In AP. Anantpur at 11c was 9c below normal.


Hyderabad 12.4, 4.8c below.

Mumbai Scruz was 15.2c, 6c below the normal. Ahmadnagar at 7.8c was the lowset in Mahrashtra and was 7c below normal. Highest departure was in Yeotmal which saw 10c and was 8c below normal. Nagpur saw 10.5c, 4.9c below.

In Karnataka, Bijapur and Raichur which were at 9c was 10c below the normal and Belgaum at 7.7c was 9c below. Gadag was 12.9c again 5.1c below.


x---------------------------------x---------------------------------------x---------------------------------x

BB-11, weakens slightly and at 8 pm IST, Sunday 18th, was 1001 mb and T2.8 strength. Very much in almost the same position at 15.8N and 87.8E., the centre cloud top temperature was down to -11c....
More later and cold wave in Mah and Karnataka...11.00 pmIST

BB-11 Update as at 5pm IST Sunday:

BB-11, now cyclone at 998 mb with core winds at 66 kmph gushing to 85 kmph. Situated at 16N and 87.6E (5 pm IST Sunday), it has moved just 25 kms in the last 6 hrs.
Sat image shows centre is somewhat off centre, due to stronger gradient winds. Clouding has amassed to the NE quadrant and weakend in the SW quadrant. Precipitation rate has also decreased as seen in the radar image.





x------------------------------------x-------------------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x--------------------x-------------------------------x
Early November Smog over Delhi..the How and Why ....


Thick smog hovered over Delhi for several days in early November.
The smoke appeared to originate primarily from the agricultural fires, other factors such as urban and industrial smog may have contributed.
Red outlines show the approximate locations of active burning. A multitude of fires spans more than 250 kilometers (150 miles) from east to west, and the smoke plume extends far to the southeast, obscuring the satellite’s view of Delhi. 
Punjab has two growing seasons—one from May to September and another from November to April. In November, Punjab farmers typically sow crops such as wheat and vegetables; but before they do that, farmers often set fire to fields to clear them for planting. That was probably the case on November 5, 2012, when the  (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image.

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Udate 10.15am Monday:
BB6 has weakened and moved North into Upper Sindh (Pakistan). Rainfall around Sukkur and Jacobabad expected on Monday, and decreasing rains in Lower Sindh.
BB6 has weakened to 1000 mb.

Low in the bay remains at 1000 mb.alongwith associated UAC.

Update at 11 pm IST:

BB6 moves into SE Sindh (Pakistan) at an increased strength of 998 mb. We had mentioned that a combination of 2 systems has deepened it more.
Very heavy rainfall expected in Badin, Chhor, and SE Sindh. Heavy rains in Hyderabad (Sindh) and Karachi with thunder/Lightning. 
As rainfall will cross 125-150 mms, flash floods likely in some regions.

Karachi thunderstorm has started , and rains will be intermittent till Monday evening. 

Weather at 6.30pm IST Sunday, 9th September:

BB6 has merged with the Saurashtra Low. Positioned over the Kutch/Sindh region at 1000 mb, it is still able to garner enough clouding from the Arabian Sea in the Southern/SE quadrant.
System is expected to move into the SE region of Sindh, and bring good precipitation in the region.
Due to the merging of the 2 lows, the Northern region has been deprived, but North Gujarat and Kutch has benefited. Lakhpat in Kutch got the highest rainfall of 85 mms in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Sunday. Patan and Banakantha districts also received good rains.

All regions of sindh too received good rainfall. Thatta received 58 mms, Hyderabad got 52 mms, Larkana 47 mms Sukkur 4 mms. The place specified in Vagaries , Multan, managed 77 mms.
More rains for one more day can be expected on Sunday night/Monday. 
Karachi and Hyderabad can expect a thunderstorm Sunday night.

Things changed to some extent from our Thursday night forecast.
After moving NW initially, BB6 has shown a westward track getting "recharged" from the Saurashtra Low. 
Though the Punjab did get some rainfall in Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur areas,
North Rajasthan also did get some rains.
Haryana and Delhi were deprived of the rainfall expected today (Sunday).  

The eastern trough did strengthen a day earlier on Saturday. This had brought good rainfall along the AP coast and TN . Chennai recieved good precipitation too. 

However, another low has formed in the bay, off the Orissa coast. We shall number it once it deepens below the 1000 mb stage. 
It is expected to track almost on the same route as BB6.
Possibly, along Vidarbha again and into North Maharashtra and into Gujarat.
Due to over saturation, local flooding possible in Vidarbha. 

If the axis line remains in the current position, alongwith a axis aloft at 850 hpa, then,
There are possibilities of the system producing heavy rains in North Konkan and Goa next week. If things move as expected, Mumbai can get heavy rains too...lets monitor it day by day !






x------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------------x---------------------------x

It is 90 days into the monsoon, the lead of Cherrapunji of nearly is around 2700 mm. In 2011, we had 77 stations which crossed 4000 mm mark till 31st August. This year the list has gotten shrunken to just 30 stations. 
Apart from Cherrapunji, only HRF places from two states (Maharashtra 12 stations and Karnataka 17 stations) are in the list.

The 2011 link till 31.08.2011 is here - 2011 similar period rankings

Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 4000 mm)

  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 8353
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 5625
  3. Kollur (Karnataka) - 5481
  4. Kogar (Karnataka) - 5287 
  5. Kitwade (Maharashtra) - 5095
  6. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 4976
  7. Dajipur (Maharashtra) - 4962
  8. Tamini Ghat (Maharashtra) - 4710
  9. Amgaon (Karnataka) - 4675 (till August 21st)
  10. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 4505
  11. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 4445
  12. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 4436
  13. Dawadi Ghat (Maharashtra) - 4430
  14. Mulshi Dam (Maharashtra) - 4415
  15. Albadi (Karnataka) - 4412 
  16. Kerekatte (Karnataka) - 4404 
  17. Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 4334
  18. Shiragaon Ghat (Maharashtra) - 4310
  19. Bandal (Karnataka) - 4297 
  20. Nilkund (Karnataka) - 4287
  21. Kasari (Maharashtra) - 4250
  22. Kanakumbi (Karnataka) - 4240
  23. Gavali (Karnataka) - 4207 (till August 18th) 
  24. Castle Rock (Karnataka) - 4177
  25. Sitanadi (Karnataka) - 4144
  26. Talacauvery (Karnataka) - 4117
  27. Kerveshe (Karnataka) - 4095 
  28. Mulikar (Karnataka) - 4091
  29. Arendur (Karnataka) - 4054
  30. Hosakere (Karnataka) - 4000 
 The state wise top 5 places. This covers only the states which has Heavy Rainfall Stations (HRF).

State-wise Toppers (Rainfall in mm)

Meghlaya 

  1. Cherrapunji  - 8353
  2. Williamnagar - 2720
  3. Jowai - 2320
  4. Baghmara - 1910
  5. Nongostin - 1700
 Arunachal Pradesh
  1. Passighat - 3218
  2. Tuting - 2110
  3. Tirap - 2070
  4. Tezu - 2010
  5. Itanagar - 2000
Assam
  1. Gossaigaon - 2700
  2. Kokrajhar - 2320
  3. Kajalgaon - 2240
  4. Chouldhowaghat - 2150
  5. Dhubri - 1810
West Bengal 
  1. Gazoldoba - 3360
  2. Chepan - 3150
  3. Hasimara - 3050
  4. Barobhisa - 2950
  5. Kumargram - 2930
Maharashtra
  1. Kitwade - 5095
  2. Amboli - 4976
  3. Dajipur - 4962
  4. Tamini Ghat - 4710
  5. Gaganbawda - 4505
Maharashtra (Ghats)
  1. Tamini - 4710
  2. Dawdi - 4430 
  3. Shirgaon - 4310
  4. Navaja - 3830
  5. Phopoli - 3620
Goa
  1. Valpoi - 3451
  2. Pernem - 3222
  3. Quepem - 3001
  4. Sanguem - 2660 
  5. Mapusa - 2500
 Karnataka
  1. Agumbe - 5625
  2. Kollur -5481
  3. Kogar - 5287
  4. Amgaon - 4675 (till August 21st)
  5. Albadi - 4412 
Kerala
  1. Vadakara - 2540
  2. Neeriamangalam - 2380
  3. Kudulu - 2310
  4. Hosdurg - 1850
  5. Kannur and Piravom -1840
Himachal Pradesh 
  1. Dharamsala - 3056
  2. Kangra - 2233
  3. Sirmaur - 1745
  4. Hamirpur - 1300
  Tamil Nadu 
  1. Devala - 2350
  2. Chinnakallar - 2150
  3. Sholayar - 1880
  4. Valparai - 1760
  5. Upper Bhavani - 1150 
Sikkim 
  1. Ranipool - 2282
  2. Gangtok - 2104
  3. Tadong - 1740
  4. Lengpui - 1113
Orissa
  1. Deogaon -  2073
  2. Laikera - 2032
  3. Burla - 1801
  4. Jamadarpalli - 1768
  5. Hirakud - 1757
 Mizoram
  1. Lowngtlai - 1550
  2. Hnahthial - 1513
  3. Saiha - 1420
Many visitors have requested to include the driest places toppers. I have tried my best collect information from reliable sources. Here is the list (Gujarat and Tamil Nadu tops the chart)

Driest Toppers Rainfall in mm Cut-off (less than 50 mm) 

  1. Pamban (Tamil Nadu) - 0 
  2. Abdasa (Gujarat) - 0 
  3. Nakhatrana (Gujarat) - 0
  4. Bhuj (Gujarat) - 3 
  5. Thoothukudi (Tamil Nadu) -7
  6. Bhachau (Gujarat) - 10 
  7. Palayamkottai (Tamil Nadu) -12
  8. Lakhpat (Gujarat) -13
  9. Naliya (Gujarat) -14
  10. Coimbatore AP (Tamil Nadu) - 17
  11. Mandvi (Gujarat) -19
  12. Dhrol (Gujarat) - 19 
  13. Okha (Gujarat) -23
  14. Jeur (Maharashtra) - 23 
  15. Mundra (Gujarat) - 24 
  16. Jat   (Maharashtra) - 42
  17. Halvad (Gujarat) - 38 
  18. Kandla (Gujarat) -39
  19. Shrigonda (Maharashtra) - 42  


x-----------------------------------x-----------------------------x---------------x

Posted on 1st September @ 10.45 pm.

The UAC over MP (erstwhile BB5) has also vanished. The west coast trough is getting strengthened. An UAC pulse can move into AP on Sunday at 700 hpa.
We can expect a new low in the Bay around 2nd/3rd this month.

Revised forecast for Sunday 2nd/Monday 3rd:

Sunday: 
Main regions of heavy rainfall will be south Konkan, Orissa, Northern AP and adjoining Southern Marathwada. Moderate rainfall in Saurashtra and light rains in Vidarbha. (Rain terminology as per Vagaries nomenclature). Some rain in SE pocket of Sindh (Pakistan).

Mumbai: Partly cloudy with rainfall increasing in the day. Thundershowers likely in the evening, some areas can get heavy rains. Rain amount: 25-30 mms.

Pune: Sunny day, getting cloudy with thunder clouds forming by evening. Some parts can get light rains.

Delhi NCR: Sunny day getting cloudy by afternoon. A thundershower likely in some parts. Rain amount where it rains: 5-10 mms.

Surat: Sunny day, getting cloudy by afternoon.

Monday: 
Heavy rainfall in Northern AP, in the Ramagundam and Nizamabad regions, and adjoining Vidarbha. Moderate precipitation in Central pockets of Saurashtra and South Konkan/Goa. Light rains in North Konkan and Haryana.
Hyderabad can expect thunder showers by Monday evening, after a relatively dry Sunday.

Mumbai: Intermittent/frequent showers in the day. Rainfall decreasing by evening, getting partly cloudy. Rain Amount: 30 mms.
Pune: Sunny day, getting cloudy with thunder clouds forming by evening. Some parts can get light rains.

Delhi NCR: Sunny day getting cloudy by afternoon. Again, thundershower likely in some parts. 

Surat: Partly cloudy. Thunder showers possible in the afternoon/evening.



x-----------------------------x----------------------------x---------------------------x---------------------x
August 2012
At the outset, readers are requested to go thru the Auguast forecast here
Request to make a judgement of the accuracy achieved performance (point by point) wise. I would put it at 65-70%, but a self assessment has no meaning and holds no value.

Quantum wise what was calculated was around +28% for all cities on an average.
City wise , the estimates and actuals in mms and % variation from estimate were:

Mumbai : 320-370 mms (Avg of Scruz and Colaba).  
Actual Colaba 521 mms, Scruz 377 mms. Avg=449   (+20%)

Pune: 210 mms (Please note the 87 mms measured on 1st July is taken in August quota as per norms). 
Actual: 204 mms (-2%)

Thane: 470-500 mms. Actual: 563   (+10%)

Surat: 180-200 mms.     Actual 111   (-42%)

New Delhi: 150-170 mms.  Actual Sjung 379  Palam  276 (Avg=328)  (+92%) 

Bangalore: 100-120 mms. Actual  Blore  189 AP  168  (Avg 179)   (+49%)

Chennai: 80-100 mms.     AP  178  chennai 90 (AVG=134)  (+35%)


August was estimated by vagaries to end somewhere between -18% to -21%. It ended up much better with a deficit reducing to -12%.

Total as on 31st August: Mumbai Colaba  1091 mms, Scruz 1303 mms, Thane 1668 mms , Panvel 1768 mms, Matheran 2687. More totals will come from Pradeep.



x-----------------------------------x-----------------------------------------x------------------------------x

2 Day Saturday 25th/Sunday 26th Outlook:

Sporadic Rain/Thundershowers continue in Delhi NCR on Saturday. Several parts will get moderate or heavy showers, varying in different areas. Saturday average rainfall will be around 25 mms.

Sunday will see a decrease in rainfall (Delhi NCR). Though some showers will continue, they will be a marked decrease as compared to Saturday. Different regions will average around 10-15 mms on Sunday (measuring upto 8.30 am Monday).

Parts of Haryana adjoining Delhi will also get heavy to moderate showers on Saturday. Sunday will see a decrease in rain, though there will be some scattered rains.

Area around Jaipur will get some showers on Saturday. Very heavy rains in the Hill states of HP, Utteranchal and Kashmir. Coastal W.Bengal (Kolkata) and coastal Bangladesh get heavy rains on Saturday as an UAC forms in the region.

South MP and adjoining Vidarbha are expected to get good precipitation on Saturday/Sunday. Nagpur can expect increased showers on Sunday, amounting to around 20 mms.
The west coast off shore trough strengthens from Monday. A vortex is likely to form around 15N by Tuesday off the west coast. 

Mumbai on Saturday will be partly sunny and hot, but some precipitation expected on Sunday evening.

Surat will have very light rain this weekend, averaging upto 5 mms/day. 
Bharuch can expect some sudden showers on Saturday.

In the South, Bangalore sees little rains on Saturday. A few sporadic showers may lash certain areas, but overall decrease in intensity. Sunday could get an evening thundershower. Coastal and Southern Karnataka can get heavy showers Sunday.

Chennai may go without rain on Saturday, but Sunday may see an evening shower averaging 10 mms in the city.
Nilgiri region can get heavy thundershowers Saturday night.

In Pakistan, the extreme Northern hills get heavy rains on Saturday, alongwith Punjab (Pakistan) region. 
Sindh region remains without meaningfull rains.




Position as on 22nd August: Drought Situation Improves since 15th August ..see map comparison








Pradeep sends, exclusively for Vagaries, a revised and updated list of All India Toppers till 15th August 2012. He has worked hard to get some very unusual stations and places included..Thanks Pradeep.

It is 75 days into the monsoon, the lead of Cherrapunji of nearly 4000 mm between first and second spot during July 31st is now reduced to around 2500 mm mark. In 2011, we had 55 stations which crossed 3500 mm mark till 15th August. This year the list has gotten shrunken to 26 stations. Apart from Cherrapunji, only HRF places from two states (Maharashtra 13 stations and Karnataka 12 stations) are in the list. Like many newly added HRF stations in Maharashtra, we have added many HRF stations from Karnataka. 
Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 3500 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 7529
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 4833
  3. Kollur (Karnataka) - 4676
  4. Kitwade (Maharashtra) - 4619
  5. Dajipur (Maharashtra) - 4311
  6. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 4304
  7. Tamini Ghat (Maharashtra) - 4180
  8. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 4103
  9. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 3958
  10. Mulshi Dam (Maharashtra) - 3923
  11. Dawadi Ghat (Maharashtra) - 3890 
  12. Kanakumbi (Karnataka) - 3888
  13. Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 3848
  14. Nilkund (Karnataka) - 3834
  15. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) -3831
  16. Shiragaon Ghat (Maharashtra) - 3830
  17. Albadi (Karnataka) - 3800
  18. Kasari (Maharashtra) - 3775 
  19. Castle Rock (Karnataka) - 3716 
  20. Sitanadi (Karnataka) - 3657
  21. Kerveshe (Karnataka) - 3500
  22. Talacauvery (Karnataka) - 3500
  23. Navaja (Maharashtra) ~ 3500 
  24. Arendur (Karnataka) ~ 3500
  25. Mulikar (Karnataka) ~ 3500
  26. Amgaon (Karnataka) - 3281 (Till August 4th)
Rainfall Toppers in SWM 2012 (01.06.2012 to 31.07.2012) by Pradeep.
------------------------------
----------
After 61 days into monsoon, Cherrapunji lead with the second placed southern king Agumbe is nearly 4000 mm. (SWM 2011 comparative figures till July 31). There are only 20 stations which crossed 2500 mm mark till July 2012, compared to 99 stations in 2011. Which is 5 times lesser places than last year and shows the failure of the monsoon.

Maharashtra tops with 9 stations, followed by West Bengal 5 and Karnataka 3 station. There is no entrant from Goa, Kerala and Tamil Nadu this year. 
Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 2500 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 7070
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 3397
  3. Dajipur (Maharashtra) - 3179
  4. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 3132 
  5. Kitwade (Maharashtra) - 3085 
  6. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) -3080
  7. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 3044
  8. Kollur (Karnataka) - 2880
  9. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 2845
  10. Chepan (West Bengal) - 2820
  11. Kasari (Maharashtra) - 2755
  12. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 2739
  13. Gazoldoba (West Bengal) - 2710
  14. Gokarna (Karnataka) - 2630
  15. Hasimara (West Bengal) -2620
  16. Barobhisa (West Bengal) - 2530
  17. Kumargram (West Bengal) - 2510
  18. Gossaigaon (Assam) - 2500 
  19. Tamini (Maharashtra) - 2500
  20. Dawadi (Maharashtra) - 2500
All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Hulikal, would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 3500 mm (to be published on 15th August 2012). 
The state wise top 5 places. This covers only the states which has Heavy Rainfall Sations (HRF).

State-wise Toppers (Rainfall in mm)

Meghlaya
  1. Cherrapunji  - 7070
  2. Williamnagar -2130
  3. Jowai - 2020
  4. Baghmara - 1410
  5. Nongostin - 1360
 Arunachal Pradesh
  1. Passighat -2739
  2. Tirap - 1740
  3. Tuting -1710
  4. Tezu -1530
  5. Itanagar - 1520 
Assam
  1. Gossaigaon 2500
  2. Kokrajhar - 2120
  3. Kajalgaon -2030
  4. Chouldhowaghat - 1610
  5. Dhubri - 1430
West Bengal
  1. Chepan - 2820
  2. Gazoldoba - 2710
  3. Hasimara -2620
  4. Barobhisa - 2530
  5. Kumargram - 2510
Maharashtra
  1. Dajipur - 3179
  2. Sangameshwar - 3132 
  3. Kitwade - 3085 
  4. Gaganbawda -3080
  5. Patgaon - 3044
Maharashtra (Ghats)
  1. Tamini - 2500
  2. Dawdi - 2500 
  3. Pratapgad -2390
  4. Navaja -2340
  5. Shirgaon -2330
Goa
  1. Pernem -2396
  2. Valpoi - 2295
  3. Quepem - 2233
  4. Mapusa -1850
  5. Panaji - 1793
 Karnataka
  1. Agumbe - 3397
  2. Kollur -2880
  3. Gokarna - 2630
  4. Kadra - 2380
  5. Nilkund - 2230
Kerala
  1. Vadakara - 1770
  2. Neeriamangalam - 1420
  3. Kudulu -1310
  4. Hosdurg -1240
  5. Kannur -1193
 Tamil Nadu
  1. Chinnakallar - 1520
  2. Devala -1430
  3. Sholayar - 1114
  4. Valparai - 1094
Mizoram
  1. Hnahthial - 1540
  2. Lowngtlai - 1120
  3. Saiha - 1010
Sikkim
  1. Ranipool - 1640
  2. Gangtok - 1547
  3. Tadong - 1230
New Addition:
Many visitors (from Vagaries) have requested to include the driest places toppers. I have tried my best collect information from reliable sources. Here is the list (Gujarat and Tamil Nadu tops the chart)
Driest Toppers Rainfall in mm Cut-off (less than 50 mm) 
  1. Pamban (Tamil Nadu) - 0 
  2. Thoothukudi (Tamil Nadu) - 0
  3. Abdasa (Gujarat) - 0 
  4. Lakhpat (Gujarat) - 0
  5. Nakhatrana (Gujarat) - 0
  6. Bhuj (Gujarat) - 2 
  7. Mandvi (Gujarat) - 3
  8. Anjar (Gujarat) - 4
  9. Halvad (Gujarat) - 4
  10. Palayamkottai (Tamil Nadu) - 5
  11. Bhachau (Gujarat) - 5 
  12. Jeur (Maharashtra) - 7
  13. Naliya (Gujarat) - 8
  14. Mundra (Gujarat) - 9 
  15. Coimbatore AP (Tamil Nadu) - 10
  16. Dhrol (Gujarat) - 10
  17. Okha (Gujarat) - 13
  18. Jodia (Gujarat) - 13
  19. Kandla (Gujarat) - 18
  20. Kolab (Orissa) - 22
  21. Sami (Gujarat) - 23
  22. Mandya (Karnataka) - 28 
  23. Mandal (Gujarat) - 29 
  24. Wav (Gujarat) - 29
  25. Dwarka (Gujarat) - 30
  26. Bhanvad (Gujarat) - 30 
  27. Santalpur (Gujarat) - 30
  28. Detroj (Gujarat)  31
  29. Visapur (Maharashtra) - 33 
  30. Dasada (Gujarat) - 33
  31. Madurai AP (Tamil Nadu) - 34
  32. Harij (Gujarat) - 34
  33. Jamnagar (Gujarat) - 35
  34. Rapar (Gujarat) - 35
  35. Karnal (Harayana) - 35
  36. Gandhidham (Gujarat) - 35 
  37. Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 36
  38. Ghod (Maharashtra) - 36
  39. Mahuva (Gujarat) - 37 
  40. Dhrangadhra (Gujarat) - 37
  41. Thanjavur (Tamil Nadu) - 38
  42. Becharaji (Gujarat) - 38
  43. Srinagar (Jammu & Kashmir) - 39  
  44. Deodar (Gujarat) - 39
  45. Tondi (Tamil Nadu) - 40
  46. Bhabhar (Gujarat) - 42
  47. Ranavav (Gujarat) - 42
  48. Chikkanahalli (Karnataka) 42 
  49. Malia Miana (Gujarat) - 42
  50. Porbander (Gujarat) - 42
  51. Khambhalia (Gujarat) - 43 
  52. Paddhari (Gujarat) - 43
  53. JamJodhpur (Gujarat) - 44
  54. Saradihi (Orissa) - 45
  55. Jamkandorna (Gujarat) - 48
  56. Mysuru (Karnataka) - 50
  57. Quant (Gujarat) - 50
  58. Mahuva (Gujarat) - 50
  59. Gariadhar (Gujarat) - 50
  60. Wadhvan (Gujarat) - 50
  61. Udaygiri (Orissa) - 50
  62. Morbi (Gujarat) - 50 
  63. Kalol (Gujarat) - 50
  64. Chanasma (Gujarat) - 50

xx------------------------------x--------------------------------x----------------------x------------------------x

City Wise Position as on 31st July 2012:
Some City Monsoon Performance As on 31st July 2012:

Actual Rain till 31st July and Deficit: 
With diagram for actual no. of rainy days in the month:

Mumbai: 
Santa Cruz:    926 mms    Deficit  -33%               
Colaba:        570 mms      Deficit -56%

Pune:  119 mms      Deficit -68%


Surat:     227 mms.    Deficit -64%


Delhi 
S'Jung:  95 mms    Deficit  -60%
Palam:  91 mms    Deficit -66%




Bangalore:   Actual Rains :  60 mms                  Deficit -66%



Hyderabad:   Actual Rain:       252 mms             Deficit: -7%            


Chennai AP     141 mms   Deficit  -30%.                   Chennai    104 mms   Deficit  -43%


Ahmadabad : 107 mms  Deficit  -72%
Bhuj, in the most scanty region of India (Kutch) received just 2 mms till date:



Lowest rainfall in Maharashtra is in Shrigonda (Ahmadnagar dist) : 30 mms
All India : -19%.  Maharashtra State: -19% 

Pakistan: Hyderabad (Sindh) has recieved  0 mms and Karachi 1 mm till July 31st 2012.





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Posted on 5th July:
All India Rainfall Deficit as on 4th July 2012.. See Karnataka Analysis Below
All India Rainfall Deficit Map shows an All India Deficit of -30% as on 4th July 2012. 
Same period for 2011 was +1%, 2010 was -10%, and the worst, 2009 was at -46%.




Karnataka Deficit Analysis:
During the period from 1st June to 1st July 2012 , the state as a whole recorded an actual amount of 126 mm of rainfall as against the normal rainfall of 205mm with percentage departure from normal being -38% classified under Deficit category.  
This indicates that the percentage departure of cumulative rainfall for the State is the 3rd
 lowest since 1971, the I & IInd lowest being 1976 at (-50%) and 1974 (-43%) respectively. 

Region Wise, the Position for Karnataka is : N.I.Karnataka -42% , S.I. Karnataka -62%, Coastal Region -26% , and Malnad -45%.

District wise, (till 5th July) Bangalore Rural stands at a very poor -83%, followed by Ramanagaran -72% and Mandya -72%   and Bangalore Urban shows a deficit of -64% !

For N.I. Karnataka, Bellary shows the highest deficit at -71% forllowed by Koppal at -67%.

Coastal Karnataka is better off with the highest deficit in Dakshina Kannada at -21%, while in Manad the deficit is in Shimoga at -41%.

Dry conditions for Farming prevail in the State..see the Moisture Adequacy Map here: 



The above Diagram shows the Bangalore Precipitation for the last 30 days. Only 3 "meaningfull" rainy days with rainfall over 1 mm !


















Left is the map originally put up on 2nd May........................................................... ,and on the  right is the     .                          revised on 28th May.


Mumbai: 550-600 mms
Chennai: 60-75 mms mms
New Delhi: 50-55 mms
Banglore: 90-110 mms
Pune: 90-110 mms mms.
Surat: 250-280 mms










     
                 
x--------------------------------x-----------------------------x---------------x

Please Note this new Nomenclature adopted by Vagaries from 1st May 2012:
This reference will be permantly put up on this Page

*Meaning of Rainfall Terms (in 24 hr Time period) given in Vagaries:
Extremely heavy: > 150 mms
Very Heavy: 100-150 mms
Heavy: 70-100mms
Medium: 40-70 mms
Moderate: 20-40 mms
Light: 5-20 mms
Drizzles: < 5mms.

On Some Occasions Vagaries may put up a % of rainfall Possibility,Meaning:
100%: Sure Shot
80%-100%: Almost Certain in all areas
60%-80%: Likely in many Parts of the region or City
40%-60%: Possible in some parts/areas
20%-40%: Possible in some time in the 24 hr Period in some nearby areas
0%-20%: An outside possibility in city or nearby areas



Posted on 4th May 2012

Forecast for weekend 4th/5th/6th May:





x---------------------x--------------------------x-----------------------------x----------------------------x-----------x----x-



Posted on 1st May




The low anomaly is reflected in this map of the last week of April. Large areas under the "blue cover" in India and Pakistan.




And it continues in May too:

We had discussed on Saturday, as the A-5 moves away, it leaves behind fresh snow on the upper reaches in the Kashmir valley and rainfall in the plains, including Srinagar.
Higher regions of Gulmarg, including Affarwat and Khilanmarg recorded light to moderate snowfall on Sunday night.
Icy cold winds at Gulmarg recorded a minimum of -3.1c on 1st May and a day's high of 6.8c, Pahalgam was -0.5c and Srinagar saw a low of 4.2c on Tuesday morning.
Heavy snowfall was recorded at holy Amarnath cave shrine and moderate snowfall was also experienced at Sheshnag, Mahaguns, Panjterni, Pisso top and Chandanwari.

The nights were low in the plains of India too, and on May Day, Amritsar was at 15c and Udaipiur at 18.5c. Pune too was 18.5c.

Across in Pakistan too , the capital Islamabad saw a low of 14c, and Sukkur saw a low of 19c, and hotspot Nawabshah was 20c on 1st May. 
The highest in India was 43c at Wardha and in Pakistan it was 44c at Dadu.

Its nice and pleasant in Kathmandu. The highest in the day hovers around 30c, while the low in the morning was 13c. Simra in the plains seems to be the highest at 40c. Expecting the Nepal plains to heat up from Thursday onwards. Neeraj had mentioned of the nights still feeling comfortable.



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Mumbai                       New Delhi                  Bangalore
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