Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Well, along with the rest of the region, I too enjoined the "break"in the Mahableshwar Monsoon. Was in Mahableshwar for 4 days,but the rainfall there was just around 10-15 mm each day I was there, and even sunny at times (rare in this seson).

There has been just a scattering of rain throughout the sub continent the last week. The monsoon trough, currently running along the foothills of the Himalayas,is causing this sharp decline of rain along the west coast of India and the main peninsula area. Even the northern belt of India is now devoid of any really heavy showers. The map shows weak westerlies in the Arabian Sea off the west coast, and southerlies on the east coast. Infact, the indications of a" high" are seen in the eastern bay. Only a line of wind discontinuity is seen in the M.P.,Maharashtra area,resulting in a few thunder showers. Nothing to really suggest a quick recovery of the monsoon in the central, northern or coastal areas. No immediate signs of a typhoon in the Pacific, which would normally help booster a "low" in the bay. I think we will have to look into the 1st. week of next month, for any meaningful recovery of the monsoon ,now subdued, in most of the country, except certain parts of the north east.

As a result, the overall India rainfall, which was +18% as mentioned in my last blog, now stands lower at +10%. After the initial burst of heavy rains,the result of 2 depressions from the bay, lasting upto the first week of July, there has been a decline in the overall rain figure.

We will have to look beyond 31st. July, maybe early August, for the first few signs of a possible revival of the monsoon.

kapadias@gmail.com


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