Thursday, October 04, 2007

The retreat of the monsoon continues southwards. The north dry air pushes its way south, and the widhrawal officially has taken place in north India, northwest India ,Gujarat, M.P. But, the rains have ceased now in Maharahtra and official widhrawal is expected soon. The rains are today restricted to the east coast and south as seen in this CPC map.

I expect, the night temperatures to fall in Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Utteranchal by 2-4 c in the next week. That means towns in Punjab may reach a low of around 14-15 c , and Delhi - Haryana may touch a low of 16 c in the coming week. This woold mean clear skies as no systems are approaching the region.

But down south, as mentioned, the remnants of Typhoon "Lekima" is expected to spring up a low around the 8th. of this month in the bay. Some models predict this to gain upto the level of a depression. This development is bound to bring good rains along the coast of A.P. and interior south peninsula next week. The exact time forecast of the rains will depend on the speed of formation, development and location of the low.
If the low in the bay develops into a depression off the south A.P./north TamilNadu coast, the south west monsoon will be simultaneously replaced by the north east monsoon winds. The ITCZ will shift down south , with the central India seasonal low vanishing.

kapadias@gmail.com


No comments: