Sunday, August 12, 2007

With the western end of the monsoon trough way up in the foothills of the Himalayas, the rain is restricted to the hilly regions of North India and Pakistan. Some stations did get some fairly heavy rain today in the region.

As mentioned in the last blog, the forecasted low has formed and deepened in the Bay. Its activity and strenght is to be watched in the next few days before any reasonable forecast be made. Some models suggest a north-west movement of the low, which could mean a "break monsoon" condition again. So, a better estimate can be made only on observations of the low in the bay, and seeing if the monsoon trough slides southwards in the next few days.

Mumbai should get the occasional shower for the next 2/3 days, around 10 mms of rain per day, without any large increase in rain next few days.

Hot weather in the Gulf abates normally September onwards.

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