The northern areas of Pakistan,and the north, north-west and central regions of India, are very much toeing the post monsoon trend. The minimum temperatures have started their seasonal fall, as seen in the blue area of the IMD map, covering the major part of the region from where the monsoon has widhrawn.
The strong prevailing seasonal anti cyclone in the northern half of the sub continent, will drive any rain from the existing weak low away towards the eastern half of India.
Sea surface temperatures are still comparatively above normal in the northern most bay,and that is the area where the system will move ,and possibly strengthen again.
Typhoon Krosa, now in the East China Sea, has gained to a super typhoon strenght, and is now Category-4 (destructive). This is more likely to trigger off the southern based low I mentioned in my last blog. Late next week, a low is predicted off the southern coast , and bring to the south, the commencement of the north-east monsoon. But, after a brief wet spell, the system(low) may move northwards, maybe north-east, if the existing prevailing northwesterlies, now upto central India, push southwards to dominate the wind flow.