Friday, August 03, 2007

The west end of the monsoon trough interacting with a weak W.D. produced heavy rains in New Delhi. It was a pocket of very heavy rainfall, and some interesting facts of New Delhi rain figures, as per information with me.

The rain recorded on the morning of 2nd. Aug. at Safdarjung for the past 24 hrs. was 167 mms. Now the total expected in August as per normal is 259 mms. That means almost 70% of the month's rain in 1 day. The heaviest ever in August fall in 24 hrs. at Safdarjung was 184 mms in 1961.
For Palam it was 138 mms in the 24 hrs, on 2nd. August. There the monthly normal for August is 284 mms. That again means around 55% of the month's rain, and the heaviest ever in a day in August at Palam was also 184 mms. in 1967.

Well, heavy falls were estimated to some extent at the west end of the monsoon axis (previous blog).

The "low" in the Bay seems to be forming now, and may concentrate sooner than expected. Good widespread rain has already commenced on the west coast, and the rain area will spread to central India by Friday. International weather forecasts suggest this "low" to move west, and cross through central India upto Gujarat. If so, very good rains can be expected all over the country in the next week. The forecasts also indicate the "low" crossing over into the Arabian Sea. For that, we will have to wait and watch.

Another Bay "low " is forecasted around the 9/10th.(maybe remnants of the Pacific typhoon) of August. We certainly have very interesting weather systems forecasted for the first half of August. With the rain fall departure for India coming down to just +2% for the end of July, a wet first half could do well to bring up the rain departure.

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