Sunday, September 16, 2007

The monsoon this year does not seem to be in a hurry to make an exit. By today, the monsoon should have normally widhrawn from Rajasthan, parts of Punjab and Kutch.
The 200 hpa jet stream winds, which had initially started its normal southward shift, has moved to almost 40 N today ! That is quite a push northwards considering the time of the year ! And, with day temperatures again at 45c in Saudi Arabia and 44c at Basra(Iraq), the monsoon low, at 1000 mb, has weakly reappeared (temporarily) in Sindh(Pakistan).

Good rainfall, pushing westwards from the Andhra coast and Orissa, will occur in Central India, interior Maharashtra, A.P. north Karnatak from Monday,17th.. Heavy rain will then be a feature, due to the low forming over the west coast, along the coast of Maharashtra and Karnatak and south Gujarat starting Tuesday,18th.The Konkan coast will get heavy rain on Wed/Thurs. I have my doubts if the Saurahtra region will get rain due to this system, as it will move west into the sea.
I had mentioned in my previous blog that the ridge like formation would spare the north-west of India from the rains. But since the ridge formation has been halted for the time being, and a weak low has formed, there may be a scattering of rains, by mid-week, due to the sytem mentioned, in parts of east Rajasthan and west U.P. and Delhi.

As for Mumbai, yes, the monsoon is far from over, as per the comment to my blog yesterday. Mon/Tue will see showers with about 10-15 mm/day, but Wed/Thu should see more heavy rain with around 50-60 mms.

As the widhrawal of the monsoon , from the north is behind the schedule date, Mumbai on its part too will see a delay in the rains departing. The normal date for the rains to bid goodbye for Mumbai is 29th. Sept. But there have been several years when it has widhrawn in the 1st. week of October. As per my personal records and information, the last date of widhrawal of the monsoon I have recorded in the last 30 years was on Oct 17th. 1985. 1983 was Oct.14th. and 2006 was 13th. Oct (how soon we forget).

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