The two concurrent weather systems mentioned in the last blog have now weakened. An update by the IMD states the Arabian Sea system has weakened into a "conventional"low, and the East India depression too has been degraded to a well marked low.
However, some international agencies give the Arabian Sea low an outside chance of intensification, as it is still anchored in the warm waters of the Arabian Sea.
On the other hand the eastern low is very much on the land, and will only weaken and fizzle out.
Then what is left for the monsoon to restart its widhrawal ?1. The 200 hpa westerly jet streams have reappeared and are dipping southwards again. They had briefly appeared about 10 days ago, but were overpowered by the monsoon systems. 2. The seasonal monsoon low over Pakistan has all but gone, with the pressure chart now reading 1010 mb. 3. An anticyclone clockwise winds are starting to blow over Pakistan/adjoining India.(map) 4. The humidity levels are falling in north west India, with dry anticyclone winds blowing. All these are signs of the monsoon widhrawal, and it is bound to start out from north west India within 2/3 days, and thence move slowly southwards. Dry northerly (clockwise) winds now establishing over Afghanistan/Pakistan, will play the key role in the southward push of the monsoon system.
Widhrawal heavy thunder showers will be the features over M.P, Maharashtra, south Gujarat and north Karnataka for the next one week.
Tamil Nadu and the southern tip of India, along with south Karnataka, will be watching the widhrawal of the south west monsoon. For concurring with the reversal of winds, the north east monsoon braces itself up right away.